[S] Smalltown Mafia: Werewolf Wins!

[a-wan]

Here's why TK and Lataro are my top suspects:

Lataro:

Parsimony - Yesterday I thought he was mafia. If he was mafia, then he had to choose between using his mafia kill and using his vig kill. Using the mafia kill would have left BF unpoisoned and essentially proved that he was mafia. Using the vig kill allows him to claim that the mafia kill was blocked or withheld. Obviously, he would choose the vig kill.

TK:

It's likely that the kill was withheld last night to frame Lataro; however, if mafia did try to kill someone last night, then, all else equal, his action last night is the only one that doesn't seemed confirmed, leaving him as the only one free to have attempted to execute the mafia kill. This would mean that the only two people he would have targeted are Lataro (protected by mpolo) or Lorenz (killed by WW first). Targeting Lataro seems less likely, but targeting Lorenz is possible since he was seeming very towny and therefore unlikely to be watched but also unlikely to be protected so the kill would go through.

Aside from those logic games, roband was starting to seem a little too willing to be linked with Lataro at the end (notice how he jumped in and claimed the quote that I had Lataro putting in my mouth). With my offensive on roband/Lataro, I was a little surprised at the lack of any distancing on roband's part from Lataro. A link to town helped roband no matter which of them ended up getting lynched (if Lataro flips town then roband comes off looking good).

So, with roband's behavior towards the end, Lataro becomes less likely as mafia. I didn't see roband link to anyone else, which makes TK the most likely scummate.

As for weiyaoli, his confidence that mpolo is WW makes me believe even more strongly that weiy is the real WW.

[a-wan]

Truth is, at the moment, I could go either way on TK and Lataro. If Lataro is town, he seems stubborn enough that I think town has essentially lost, because I don't think he will switch his vote. TK, if you're town, I think weiy is a more sure bet then mpolo.

[Ibarra]

did i make it n time? psting frm phone

mod can you please treat this vote as if it wre bold?
vote: weiyaoli

cant really post mcuh but say that i agree that wei is mor likely to be wolf

[Ibarra]

ebwop

[b]vote: weiyaoli /b]

forgot tat i could type bbcode

[Ibarra]

ebwop 2
vote: weiyaoli

[a-wan]

Just as a reminder to mafia:

If it comes down to a tie between you and WW, WW wins.

As a reminder to Lataro/TK:

If Ibarra or I were WW, we would probably be hammering mpolo right about now (see the above reminder to mafia).

I guess WW is clearly narrowed down to two people. Are you confident you've chosen the right one?

[Thirdkoopa]

I guess WW is clearly narrowed down to two people. Are you confident you've chosen the right one?

I feel more confident about this, especially with the lack of reasoning asides from a role for Mpolo. We'd need an unvote still at least in the next 10 minutes.

Misnomer, I doubt it, but would a DE be possible due to the dire state of the game? I'm about to leave the house as I type this.

[a-wan]

Mpolo:
Before all else...

As for mpolo, it seems confirmed that he used his power again last night. In my mind, it seems like if the doctor is the WW, then it is in his best interest to use his power in such a way that it will not block the mafia kill (for instance, doctor the person he ends up killing), and it has not seemed like he has done this. In my mind, based on actions that are apparently confirmed, mpolo is not the WW.

...What?
A-Wan, here's a curiosity question, have you ever played as SK? Looking Town is more important than letting a few kills slide. In Smalltown, even if you're scum, you have to make logical actions and choices on what roles are in play.

Admittedly, I've never been SK before. I agree that looking town is always most important. However, that doesn't mean that all other goals are out the window. The longer a game goes, the more likely any scum is to get caught, so more kills are better. mpolo could have easily justified targeting Lorenz last night by saying that Lorenz was towniest and Ibarra was too obvious a target. He also didn't need to point out that he had targeted Lataro last night. He could have said that he targeted Ibarra directly and no one would have been able to catch him.

Next off, there's this:

But there have to be two scum there. I'm going to need some more time with this, and unfortunately, have no time right now to do so.

I guess I'm in the same boat here. I am really inclined to vote for ThirdKoopa at present, but I would rather hear first what he has to say for himself.

...what. I'm questioning if you're town if you even realize the situation we're in.

You say you need to come up with more content (especially as I said, tomorrow even if we lynch scum today, we're still in a potentially bad position) then... wait for my content despite the fact you don't even have two true scumreads when there's two scum at least left assuming you... aren't one? To top it off, it's practically sheeping.

I'm not sure why waiting for your post is scummy. You had given very little content at that point, but you had promised to, so waiting to see what you said was...exactly what everyone was doing (except Lataro who had already voted). I don't see the point of this one.

Exhibit B:

If he's going to be modkilled, we save ourselves the problem, don't we? As a result, I'd rather not bandwagon a lurker out of the game that the mod is going to take care of.

The... Hell?

I'm not sure what the criticism is. Everyone was discussing whether or not to lynch VF, but he was saying there was no need because he had shown zero activity and the mod would take care of it. If everyone was going to lynch you, but you hadn't posted since D1, I expect people would be saying the same thing about you right now.

And then there's the Miller thing which I covered.

Remind me what the miller thing is. He said that your role was like a miller? I'm not sure what's scummy about that. Why would scum want to accuse you of being town?

And then the hammer with little to say which could be taken as bussing...

That could be seen as busing, though it is clearly documented that he had been out of town and was reading through a large amount of content and voting on who he thought was scummiest before he had actually counted up votes. This is neutral for me. Certainly more neutral than not at least agreeing that roband was scummy or saying that you thought it would be a bad idea to lynch roband.

Wei's leaning towards Neutral to Scum. All too... neutral, for a start, and I'll elaborate more on him when I have the time (this post already took up like two hours of my life with being half asleep)
Mpolo's leaning towards pretty scummy for all of the reasons I've stated above (and more I could nitpick) basically doing what Wei is. What's hard to decide is what's better - Going for the person who gives Null tells which might be a key more on the WW, or just going for someone who's generally scummy more?

The only point that even kind of landed for mpolo in your analysis was the hammer, but that, as I said, seems neutral considering the circumstances and at worst puts him as mafia, but isn't Lataro a much better candidate for mafia than mpolo? And if it comes to deciding whether weiyaoli has acted more like WW than mpolo, isn't weiyaoli a better candidate?

All told, this game seems to be in the hands of TK and Lataro. I highly doubt mpolo is WW. Hammering is a mafia tell, not a WW tell. TK, you have said that WW should want to appear town. I think no one has tried played more vanilla than weiyaoli. He has the WW tells.

And the deadline is extended until Misnomer says it's night. I would at least like to see Lataro confirm that he wants to stay with mpolo over weiyaoli.

[Misnomer]

Votals:

mpolo (3) - Thirdkoopa, Lataro, weiyaoli
weiyaoli (3) - a-wan, mpolo, Ibbara

With half of the town now dead, the survivors were all agreed that swift action was needed if they were to triumph over their foes.

Unfortunately, they could not agree on what that action should be. Carter quickly found himself accused by Ethel, Jeremy & Louis, the last of which was soon herself confronted by an angry mob in the form of Narissa, Carter & Harry. The town had divided into two camps, unable to agree with each other.

Alarmed by the setting sun, Jeremy appealed for more time, to allow the town to come to a decision. The sun, however, rudely ignored his pleas and slipped beneath the horizon. Night fell, and the townsolk reluctantly went their seperate ways...

The day has ended without a lynch, as the votals were tied at deadline. It is now night. Please send in your actions ASAP.

[Misnomer]

If you haven't sent an action in yet, please do ASAP

[Misnomer]

If you haven't sent an action in yet, please do ASAP

*coughs violently*

Soft deadline for night set for 9pm BST, Thursday 13th October - just over 21 hours from now.

[Lataro]

...

[Misnomer]

The night was long and dark. Xkcdia seemed shrouded in a cloak of unnatural silence, a silence only broken by the tap-tapping sound of Narissa's high heels striking the town's hard cobblestone pavements.

Alone with her thoughts, Narissa found herself wondering yet again whether or not she was making the right decision. True, there was a side of her that was sneaky, manipulative, shameless... but at the same time, couldn't she use these abilities for good? Or would it only cause yet more hurt? Lost in her train of thought, she noticed only too late that standing in the middle of the road in front of her was a monstrous werewolf.

Narissa froze. She knew she couldn't run, and fighting the beast wouldn't do any good. But then an idea occured to her... if this creature was once human, then maybe all it needed was to be treated like one... could she, perhaps, use her beauty to tame this beast?


The townsfolk found her remains the next morning. However, hers was the only death that morning brought news of. Just what were the mafia playing at?

Narissa (a-wan) is now dead. She was town.

5 players remaining, 3 to lynch. Deadline set for 6pm BST, Thursday 20th October

[mpolo]

I protected Ibarra last night. With the long night, I kind of wonder if the Mafia didn't submit a kill at all.

[weiyaoli]

Stalked lataro last night. They targeted me.

[Lataro]

I can verify weiyaoli's claim, I targeted him last night. As for why, simply spreading some options in case I need 'em, and he seemed like a good choice since I'm still pro-mpolo lynch here.

In other news...

I'd really like to be voting Ibarra right now, for tying the vote, and giving us a NL. That and the fact that everyone else has their last online displayed and I checked them out and they had all been on yesterday, but his status is hidden, so by deduction, I'm going with the assumption his action, or lack of action, is what we were waiting on.

I'm gonna go with the gut mod call and say, no one holds night for damn near a week without it being because they are waiting on an anti town's kill target, so not to completely screw them. This just puts more on it.

The only detractor here, is no one really has an incentive to ensure a NL on someone besides themselves at this point, so it matters less, it's mostly I'm just annoyed at him for doing so and costing us a lynch, basically leaving us at D3 V2.0. Nothing new is on the plate, a-wan was pretty much considered town here by most if not all. All we've done is let another kill go though.

Basically, I'm annoyed at this, as we pretty much have no choice but to repeat D3, unless someone has actually useful information.

[Ibarra]

Finally, good internet connection.
Yes I was online for the day, but I was on my phone and attempting to read the thread with my phone is very confusing.

First of all, I would have still pushed for a wei lynch, but Lataro already poisoned wei once, so that's fine.
Therefore, I would like to lynch the second scummiest in the group - TK.
Why? Because I successfully watched him the previous night.
No one visited him though.

So basically he's Mafia.
I suggest we lynch him today then let Lataro kill wei off as he's the second must scummy.

If Lataro dies before giving the poison, then wei has to be Werewolf.

Vote: TK

[Ibarra]

EBWOP to answer Lataro more:
I voted for wei yesterday since I thought (and still think) he is the Werewolf.
I didn't think mpolo was Mafia either. Why would I let someone who I don't think is Maf/WW get lynched?

[Lataro]

Primarily, so that on the off chance you could possibly be wrong, we gain useful info, instead of a NL.

It's pretty much accepted that it's better to have a lynch then a NL, and you had absolutely no reason to KNOW that mpolo was town, thus, you violated a pretty basic rule, if it was intentional, as your post seems to suggest there, rather than some kind of mistake.

As for your claim, I'll wait to see a response to it before doing much more with it, I have a leaning on it, and reasoning for it, however, I'll let TK post before saying my bit on it.

[mpolo]

Well, we were (and are) in a very near to MyLo situation, townies are actually quite valuable at the moment, so that not throwing one away is a pretty townie attitude. If the bad guys had been able to get two kills in in the night after lynching me, then we would have lost twenty dollars and my self respect pretty soundly -- alive would be only Lataro, TK and weiyaoli, two of whom are scum and one of whom is town. (Given that it seems that the Mafia tried to kill Ibarra and the werewolf did kill a-wan.) If the lynch had made them reconsider, there were other possibilities, of course.

I pretty much trust Ibarra at this point. He did post last, so was able to theoretically adjust his result to ours, but his result fits the data quite well, and I haven't noticed any other anti-town behaviour from him.

I think that if Lataro were mafia, he would have risked using the real kill at this point, rather than poisoning weiyaoli. Werewolf is at least in the realm of possibilities, though.

Nonetheless, I am pretty thoroughly convinced of weiyaoli's were-wolfiness.

Ibarra's revelation of TK's having turned off his power is extremely damning for ThirdKoopa, if true.

I'm not going to rush this by placing a vote yet, but at the moment it would go on ThirdKoopa or Weiyaoli.

As the werewolf is unblockable, he's actually a much bigger priority. If mafia survives to tonight, I will almost certainly be the victim, as I am the only one who is 100% killable by the mafia. If the werewolf is dead, though, that's not a big problem.

So, I guess my first choice would be a weiyaoli lynch. On the other hand, getting either of the bad guys would be enough to have us at a last day with two town and one killer. So, I could go for a ThirdKoopa lynch with clear conscience as well.

[Misnomer]

Votals:
Thirdkoopa (1): Ibarra

[mpolo]

Toward the end of my last post, I realized that we've reached the point where werewolf and mafia are equally good lynch choices -- in either case, tomorrow would have two townies and one bad guy (there is some possibility of the poisoner taking care of the last bad guy, if we have them identified correctly).

As a result, ThirdKoopa would look like a good lynch target. With five, though, I don't want to place the second vote until we really have consensus. It would also be nice to hear from ThirdKoopa before the lynch.

[Lataro]

This is getting real fun real fast.

Unless he is modkilled for serious inactivity here, I'll be voting TK in short order here. This is getting pretty downright boring with the lurking situation.

[weiyaoli]

Out of lataro and tk, I think tk is the mafia here since I'm not sure why scum would poison me instead of a kill.

[weiyaoli]

EBWOP:

Whoops, forgot to vote:
Vote: TK

[mpolo]

Alright. I'm going to do it.

Vote: ThirdKoopa

I don't know how much I have to justify this, since we have very likely lost if it's wrong. In any case, this seems the best bet to get rid of the mafia. I trust Ibarra, think weiyaoli is the WW, and Lataro is somewhat townier than TK, if only because he continues to use his poisoning ability and not a mafia kill.

[Misnomer]

Votals:
Thirdkoopa (3): Ibarra, weiyaoli, mpolo

Jeremy was, by general consensus, being far too quiet. Unable to bear the tension anymore, the surviving townfolk leapt on him and killed him.

Then (ironically, in silence) each of them slowly drifted off back to their homes. The night was coming fast... and nobody could be sure what news the morning would bring...

Jeremy the Recluse [Thirdkoopa] has been lynched. His role will be revealed in the morning.

It is now night. Send in your actions ASAP.

[Misnomer]

Rummaging through his files, Harry quickly confirmed that his suspicions were true.

He double checked. Triple checked. But there was no uncertainty about it.

Jeremy had been the last of the family. The Mafia were defeated.

Jeremy [Thirdkoopa] was Mafia. The Mafia have all been eliminated, and have thus lost.

Harry was naturally thrilled about this, but he was aware that by carrying out this research he was wasting valuable time. Glancing at his watch, he quickly threw on his overcoat and rushed out the door - and straight into the waiting claws of the werewolf...


Hearing Harry's screams, the survivors rushed over to his house, where by a freak chance they all arrived at exactly the same time from different directions, the werewolf having quickly transformed back into their human form.

Ethel, Lois and Carter eyed each other warily. There could be no more mistakes - either the wolf would be slain, or Xkcdia would fall.

The final hour had arrived.

Harry [Ibarra] is dead. They were town.

It now 'Day'. 3 players remaining, 2 to lynch. Good luck!

[Lataro]

I'm screaming to vote mpolo here.

Reasoning: It appeared I was going to poison weiyaoli for the kill, he figures, leave me alive, and win it at the start of D5.

I choose to poison him, since the following would occur:

A. weiyaoli is the WW, he thinks I'm gonna kill him, he'd kill me for sure.
B. mpolo is the WW, he thinks I'll kill weiyaoli, and win the game at 1v1 D5 start.

That is the only sensible way things would work out, assuming not horrible WW play on weiyaoli's part, or not super manipulative one in a million shot in the dark prayer that I don't kill a WW weiyaoli last night.

Vote: Mpolo

Town win.

[Lataro]

EBWOP:

For weiyaoli:

You can pretty much trust I'm not the WW, since I would have killed you for the win last night with my poison if I was.

Now lets see if my reasoning holds true on this.

[mpolo]

I protected Ibarra. Lataro, I agree 100% that you are not the werewolf. Because if you were, you would already know that I would absolutely follow a vote on weiyaoli for the loss. But I don't know what to say further to convince you that I'm not either.

Vote: weiyaoli

And hope that Lataro comes to his senses, I guess. There is plenty of evidence of my visiting people without them dying. There would be no real reason for a werewolf doctor to actually use his powers of protection (and quite effectively).

[weiyaoli]

Yeah, a lataro WW makes zero sense to me. So:

Vote: mpolo

[Ibarra]

Edit: Actually not yet.

[mpolo]

Congratulations, Mr. Werewolf, whichever of the two you are.

[roband]

[mpolo]

So, did I actually manage to block all the mafia kills, or did they fail to submit kills?

[roband]

It was so long ago now, I honestly can't remember

[Lataro]

Bah, well deserved then if weiyaoli was the WW, that was a hell of a huge risk to not kill me last night.

[roband]

Just gonna put it out there that I think it's very easy for the WW to win this game.

Mainly because the role is an undetectable SK, who appears to be town to every investigative role. So all the player has to do is appear townlike during the days and they're home-free.

[BoomFrog]

I really disagree Roband. I think the SK needs that because he has only one life. He has to appease town and avoid the lynch AND he has to remain undetected by the Mafia. And there are two roles that can detect him and there is one role that can prevent his kill, so he's not completly untouchable. I think the fact that the game came down to 3-1-1 means it was pretty balanced. It really could have gone to any faction at the end there.

The only thing that I do think was unfair is that the action priority system should have probably been announced since it is assumed that actions are simultanious and a kill is not also a roleblock. Mafia got robbed N1.