Lol I post four times in the first 1.5 days of the game and I 'haven't posted as much as others'. Pretty good activity.
Conman - Well obviously the answer to your question is that it's equal to the probability that you or Chandani are scum. If I have to put a number on it, I'll say 40%. It's still very early in the game, so the honest answer is that I have no idea who the scum is.
Here's the list of things that stick out at me from people's posts (ignoring Boomfrog, who's been analysed enough already
) - I'll say something's townie if it's more likely to be said by town than scum, neutral if I think it's equally likely to be said regardless of alignment, and scummy if it's more likely to be said as scum. Obviously given the goal of scum is to look like town, most things will be close to neutral.
1. New player, asks what to do. Neutral (ie he would say this whether he's town or scum)
2. Discusses ideas of how to find scum. Neutral - I don't think the ideas are likely to work, so it could be either a genuine attempt to help town, or pretending to help town. I lean very slightly (ie above the 75% if I had no idea who was scum) towards the hypothesis that it's a genuine attempt to help, because they are plausible ideas from a player new to the game
3. Analyses players. Slightly townie because I agree with it, but only slightly because it doesn't really say anything controversial - because of the way Boomfrog has been acting, a scum player could write that same analysis without having to worry about finding a lynch target later.
4. Responds to GoP on the defensiveness thing. Backs down slightly, then brings up an example of GoP's defensiveness. Neutral - if anything, very slightly scummy for a slight feeling that you're going looking for an excuse to find someone other than Boomfrog scummy, but that's a very minor thing - it's not anti-town to do it, but it's something that scum would definitely want to do.
5. Asks us all a bunch of questions which seem reasonable. Very slightly townie.
1. Answers my 'what is scummy' post with, amongst other things, 'posting intentionally winey things' (which Boomfrog then goes on to do, so at least GoP voting for Boomfrog is consistent...
) Thinks slip-ups can be useful too. Slightly townie for being very forthcoming with his answer, as he's giving us a test by which we can judge how genuine his actions are. Scum will tend to be looking for any reason to lynch a player, so it's good to put a standard of 'what is scummy?' in place.
2. GoP responds to Boomfrog's vote telling him he's doing it wrong and then in the next post votes for him. Netural - I have no idea whether to read these posts as being too aggressive or not. Part of me says that the reaction was warranted, while another part thinks it was over the top. Some townie players naturally react quite aggressively to being voted for, but I don't think GoP is one of them. On the other hand, there wasn't really much justification to Boomfrog's vote. I'll reserve judgment on this for now.
3. ConMan's accusation of being overdefensive is replied to. Makes the point that he would have done what he did regardless of who Boomfrog had done it to. Slightly townie - I find myself believing this, but I believe he would have done it whether he's town or scum given there's only one scum in the game . The slightly townie is for the other part of the post where he tells us to stop focussing so much on Boomfrog so we have information for tomorrow.
4. Posts an analysis of players. Neutral - says pretty much all the obvious things. Although what is iterate mode?
1. Has no real strategies to help us, gives only one example of scummy behaviour, defence against Boomfrog's vote. Neutral - Not really much content, but at least there was no overreaction to Boomfrog's vote. Feels like normal Chandani.
2. Discusses the Boomfrog issue, then looks at GoP's response to Boomfrog's vote. Neutral/Slightly townie - The discussion on GoP's reaction is pretty reasonable, no other real comments here.
3. Most recent post contains little that's new/original. Neutral
So that's what I think of everything so far. We're only two days in and so far I think it would be pretty easy for a non-Boomfrog scum to hide - there are very few places where I think scum would look different to town. There's no deadline yet, so there's no hurry, and I'm not going to force myself to see scumminess when it's not there.
Based on that analysis, Chandani and GoP are =2nd and ConMan is the most townie at this stage. If this was a large game, based on their content to this stage, I would guess that they were all town.