xkcd

by **Adam H** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:52 pm UTC

I'm realizing that I didn't really end up saying anything in my last post...

I'll try and be a little more opinionated... For N1 I would definitely advocate for medics and exorcists to not use their power. I think the detective should use his power, as the benefit is great and the odds of hitting cult are small. To be safe, I'd prefer the cop to target detective or detective's target, to decrease chance of getting culted.

Math for brain pleasure:
Detective uses power at random, cop does not use power: 18% chance detective is culted (1/10+1/11*9/10)
Detective uses power at random, cop uses power on known non-cult: 26% chance one of them is culted (1/10+2/11*9/10)
Detective uses power at random, cop uses power at random: 35% chance one of them is culted (1/10+1/9+2/11*(1-1/10-1/9)) ...Might have done that wrong

I'm assuming that cult can't redirect a power that is not being used, which is why using a power on someone you know is not cult is a little risky on odd nights.

I am more scared of mafia than cult, and getting info for a successful vig kill is important, so I would be against withholding the detective power.

by **Ibarra** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:14 pm UTC

Cult can only redirect during odd nights.
IMO, then even nights are the safest to do actions in.

Assuming we lynch someone D1 & D2, and someone dies N1, we would only have 1/8 chance to target cult.
So I think it would be best to use actions on even nights instead of odd nights.
Maybe detective and beat cop should not use powers until N2? Thoughts on this?

by **ForAllOfThis** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:09 am UTC

I agree if we use powers it should be on even nights. People are suggesting that the beat cop should investigate the cop. However, if town is refraining from using their powers then the beat cop is almost as good as the detective because if anyone is using a power then they're probably scum (minus the compulsive vigilante). Much better to use them as a second cop. Generally the strategy should be something like this:

N1: No town powers.
N2: Beat Cop, Detective, Vig
N3: No town powers.

and so on, until the cult recruiter is taken out. I think that minimises the chance of the beat cop or detective being culted. Either that or have them target the same person.

Lataro, does the beat cop or detective action get processed first?

If it's the beat cop first, then the detective will know if the beat cop has been recruited the following day, can be named and then exorcised. It also means that the cops could be safe to investigate every night which would be useful.

by **Lataro** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:25 am UTC

all action processing priority is in the setup details in the OP. (aka, I don't know and am too lazy to look myself)

by **ForAllOfThis** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:29 am UTC

Ahh I didn't see that. Ok the town beat-cop is processed before the detective, so if they were to both investigate the same person, then the detective would know if the beat-cop was recruited on the next day. It also protects our detective. If done on odd nights the detective could still be recruited by a redirect, so should probably stick to even nights to be safe.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:14 am UTC

I agree with that plan, with the caveat that the exorcists can target as they like, as there is very little danger of them mistargetting (sure, one could get killed, but its a very small chance.) They cannot be culted, and the worst that can happen is they become vanilla town. So it should be up to their discretion whether they use their powers or not.

by **mpolo** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:41 am UTC

We seem to be generally on the same page on the actions, i.e. exorcisms are relatively "safe" (though we would rather not have them turn vanilla if possible, as they could be crucial later in the game). Mafia is more of a threat than cult early on, but it is imperative not to let the cult grow. I'm not sure I understand the "both cops target the same person" thing -- it probably makes sense, but I don't have time at this moment to analyze the PMs in the first post.

More later. (Sorry, emergency just came up…)

by **ForAllOfThis** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:22 am UTC

mpolo wrote:I'm not sure I understand the "both cops target the same person" thing -- it probably makes sense, but I don't have time at this moment to analyze the PMs in the first post.

Basically the Beat Cop & Detective are masons. That means if either of them gets culted without the other knowing, it could cause all sorts of trouble for us (basically, it becomes quite likely the other mason will be culted because the culted mason could influence the other to target the cult leader, and the cult leader will know who our detective is). There are several things needed in order to prevent this:

1) Cops use powers on even nights, that way the cult leader can't redirect one of their powers without the other knowing.
2) They both target the same player. The beat cops action is processed first and will be culted if the target the cult leader. The detective is processed second so will not be culted, but will get an anti-town result which he should make public. Then if the anti-town player is the cult leader, we will know that the beat-cop has been culted (even if we don't know his identity).

It'll probably be easier for the detective to tell us who the beat cop is so both exorcists can target him the following night (that way if one is roleblocked then at least cult is dealt with).

by **Silknor** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 3:00 pm UTC

This strategy sounds good for even nights. I'm still not sure about odd nights, I understand the reasoning, but I'm not sure if the cop avoiding being culted is that important. Lets think about how many days there are likely to be in this game. I'll give an example in which all the kills that can happen do, as it seems likely most will at least for the first 2 or 3 nights.

12 players D1.
Lynch+NK.
10 players D2.
Lynch+NK+VigKill+VigSuicide
6 players D3 (first usable cop result under even night strategy).
Lynch+NK+possible extra kill from exorcist/target painting
3-4 players D4

By this point if the cops are still alive, they probably know all the alignments anyway. But of course it's unlikely that both will make it this far. Which means there's a good chance under an even only double investigation strategy, while we know they won't get culted without knowing about it (and even then it's unlikely), they get at most 1 useful investigation in (which could still be roleblocked, redirected by the mafia, or by chance hit the godfather).

by **Adam H** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:53 pm UTC

Hmmm I'd be OK with withholding cop actions tonight, but I think I'd still prefer at least one cop use their powers. The cult redirect does not dramatically increase the chances that one of them will get culted. Yes, even nights are safer than odd nights, but IMO the risk is still low enough that I'd rather take advantage of the cop's power tonight.

Basically, I'm much more scared of the mafia than the cult. If we can kill mafia, hunting down cult should be easy with the exorcists.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:11 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:Hmmm I'd be OK with withholding cop actions tonight, but I think I'd still prefer at least one cop use their powers.

As I've pointed out, if a cop is used then using both on the target is somewhat safer.

@Silknor: The reason for witholding all town powers is to 'recruit' the cult against mafia. If we use no powers then cult isn't a threat to us, but is a threat to scum. There's a 2/12 = 1/6 chance of discovering anti-town with the cop tonight (One mafia is a godfather and the other is cult, so the detective will be recruited) and 1/12 chance of hitting cult. There's also a 1/12 chance that cult will redirect the cops power, so a 2/12 = 1/6 chance that the cop will be culted.

It's safe to say regardless of the outcome of the lynch and NK today, the odds will shift more towards our favour tomorrow (no cult redirect halves the chance of the cop being recruited). If we use two cops, then the chance of one being recruited changes to 1/3 chance of being recruited as well. I just don't see any potential payoff for using the cops tonight, just risk.

by **Silknor** » Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:37 pm UTC

I understand the reasoning, just pointing out what it means in practical terms. There's obvious benefits, but there is a tradeoff and it's good to know precisely what that is.

by **webby** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:01 am UTC

Sorry for not having been around.

I think the best strategy posted so far is that the detective and beat cop target the same person. If the beat cop is unlucky enough to target the recruiter, then the detective will get a result of anti-town and we can lynch that person tomorrow. Beat cop is before detective in order of actions, so would be the one to get recruited.

by **BoomFrog** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:01 am UTC

Webby, that doesn't take into account redirections. Although if the detective is redirected the beatcop will know about it, so it does leave only a 1/11 chance of culting. I agree it's probably the best plan. So medic's withhold, Cops stick together, and exorcists make thier own decision though likely stay thier hand. Hopefully Mafia gets recruited and then kill off thier own spy N2 and lead the lynch on the cult leader D3.

So now to the scum hunting:

1. greenlover - *car breaks squeel* Wait, GL is in this game? wtf? He hasn't posted at all.

Vote Greenlover

Modprod Greenlover?

by **Lataro** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:13 am UTC

He is so prodded.

Votals:

Greenlover - 1 - (BoomFrog)

Deadline in ~5.75 days or so, too lazy to be exact.

by **BoomFrog** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:40 am UTC

Well, let's ignore that for now then.

Unvote

Spoiler:

In my reread this stuck out as an off idea:

FAOT wrote:D2, if all 3 medics are standing they should claim and then protect each other, because D3 they will get medkits for surviving.

Even if this worked the way you thought at the time, the mafia would simply target a non-medic townie, so they medics all live at the expense of effectily not using thier power. And most of the non-medic townies are more powerful roles. This was a terrible idea.

However, the people that seem scummiest are DL, Wei, Mpolo and GoP. For now:

Vote GoP

I'm really reluctant metagame wise to do it, but what's up with this postman? Town shouldn't use any actions? Then you ignore Mpolo calling you out on it?

P.S. This post took way too long so don't expect anything big out of me for the next several days.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:53 am UTC

I think you overestimate what the actions can do.

Definitely N1, I dont think any actions should be used, aside from possibly the exorcists. And I don't think any actions should be taken, until the cult leader is dead. The mafia will not be much stronger than a regular mafia, and might be even weaker, if they get culted. I see very little gain in potentially exposing ourselves to being culted.

At this stage, I'm used to you voting for me, I would be insulted if you didn't!

by **mpolo** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:20 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:8. mpolo - promotes withholding actions. Retty lurky. Scummy.

I don't know that I am promoting withholding actions. I think I have just been convinced by the others who are promoting it (though not those who seem to indicate that we should withhold all actions for the whole game).

The cult could theoretically get up to two people tonight, as I read it. Even if he successfully redirects an action to himself, any other actions are just normal actions. Which means that we are probably obsessing too much about the cult. For instance, if the cult is targeted by the medic and a mafia kill, one medic is culted, but the cult leader is dead. Actually, thinking this through is making the people advocating avoiding all actions look kind of questionable. We can't let the cult grow too much, but giving up all our tools against the mafia doesn't seem to be the right way to go about this.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:30 am UTC

Don't have much metagame knowledge about boomfrog, does he always play this aggressively?

On a side note my last post was saying that it makes sense to withold actions for tonight, at least. Tomorrow we halve the chance to be culted and the chance of hitting scum will increase, so if we're going to use actions, then would be the time to do it.

@Boomfrog, I hadn't thought much about it at the time, I just saw a potential loophole and thought I'd mention it. The way you reacted you would think I was trying to push it, which I wasn't. It would have worked if there were no counterclaims. Having 3 confirmed medics in a 7 player situation (N3) would have been extremely useful.

I'm seeing boomfrog disagree with two sound strategys (the double cop and the witholding powers), while accusing 4 players day one without backing up those accusations with any evidence, logic or thought processes. Finally he places vote on GoP for saying town should withold powers when I've probably been more of an advocate for that strategy than him (although not for the entire game).

by **BoomFrog** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:55 pm UTC

I'm not saying advocating withholding powers is scummy. I already agreed that we should have both cops target one person N1. What I am saying is that mafia would advocate withholding powers. So my list should help us narrow things down D1. And I'm saying GoP's view is too extreme. Do you think we should really withhold all powers until the cult dies?

by **BoomFrog** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 1:07 pm UTC

About the medics. Even with no counterclaim a doctor power is still useless if you announce where your going to use it. Anyway, it could have been the start of a good idea if say the medics commit to 2/3 to protect another medic and 1/3 chance to protect someone they think is townie. Then scum don't have a clear counter plan. We'll see where we are at D2 and discuss it then.

Calling your idea terrible was a little harsh, sorry.

by **greenlover** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 1:41 pm UTC

Yes, I'm playing in this game. Yes, I haven't posted yet. Sorry, but things happened in RL. Plus, I'm having a hard time getting my mind around the mechanics (the bastardy isn't making this any easier...), but that's my fault. Anyway, I will try to get some content up in the near future (read: I'm going to start a content post as soon as I post this.)

by **greenlover** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 2:56 pm UTC

So, starting off with mechanics, I agree that we should be very careful about using our powers. However, I don't agree that we should focus on cult first and foremost. Since the only way we can possibly be culted is by using our powers, if we simply don't use our powers unless there is a good justification to, then we shouldn't have to worry about the cult. The mafia, on the other hand, is way overpowered in this game, so they serve as being a much bigger threat. Additionally, if we keep the cult around until after the mafia is dead, the mafia's overpowered nature could work against it, since only one of its actions is immune to the cult.

Moving on to the night actions that should be used, I think that only the town vig, beat cop, and detective should use their powers by default at night, and the beat cop/detective should target the same person. However, looking through the thread, I can see as much has been said by others. Oh well, that's the plan I support.

Moving on to players, this post of DL's pings me. It seems as though he is putting more emphasis on the dangers of the cult than is really justified. For example, its pretty likely that a few of those cult members will be mafia (since mafia actions get processed first), which will create tension in the mafia's ranks. That seems pretty beneficial to town, in my honest opinion. Still, I don't like the idea of lynching someone simply because they hold a different opinion than my own.

I really don't like that BF is bringing up meta game. I do think that meta can be useful in certain cases, but making random comments based off meta (like BF's comment at the end of his analysis of GoP) is pure wine. Additionally, I do agree he is acting quite aggressive, but I'm not sure if that's not just BF's playing style. AdamH's posts are pinging me, as well, but that's more of a gut feeling than anything else. Perhaps a bit too agreeable? Anyway, a IGMEOY to all three of you.

by **Adam H** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:34 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:4. Adam H - Odd post here saying at least one cop should use his power. Previous evaluation was good but either both cops should use thier power or nither should. Why push for only one? Leans townie but possible cult.

My post isn't odd, your post is odd! Oddface!

First, I was not "pushing for only one". I said AT LEAST one. Second, yes, one cop power MIGHT be better than two. Probably not, but I don't think it's necessarily a both or none deal. If both cops target the same player tonight, the chances that one will be redirected is twice as high as if just one cop uses his power. As I showed in an earlier post, the odds of a cop being culted go from around 18% to 26%, and I'm not sold that the benefits of both targetting the same player outweighs the added 8% risk. I think the only benefit would be that IF that 26% chance happened and cop turned into cult, then we'd be able to mitigate the disaster (and probably end up winning the game for mafia...).

Gopher of Pern wrote:Definitely N1, I dont think any actions should be used, aside from possibly the exorcists. And I don't think any actions should be taken, until the cult leader is dead. The mafia will not be much stronger than a regular mafia, and might be even weaker, if they get culted. I see very little gain in potentially exposing ourselves to being culted.

It sounds like you're mafia trying to make us focus on cult. Mafia sounds really really powerful to me, and I feel strongly that your proposed strategy would benefit mafia.

Vote: Gopher of Pern

Should exorcists claim? Since cult and probably mafia will not target exorcists, it will make cult more likely to turn mafia. And we'd have 2 confirmed town. If cult foolishly counterclaimed exorcist, we can lynch one and exorcise the other. The downside would be that the cops and medics would be more likely to get targeted.

Ninja'd (very slowly):
Slight FoS: greenlover, for singling out DL instead of GoP. I do approve of his anti-mafia slant, though.

by **weiyaoli** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:37 pm UTC

Please replace me.

by **BoomFrog** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 1:25 am UTC

Come on people, get with the posting. Have some opinions or ill just assume the lurkers are all scum.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 1:59 am UTC

I really don't understand Adam's reasoning for voting me. Town not using actions hurts Mafia, as they will be more likely to be copped. Mafia would only be slightly more powerful than vanilla mafia if we don't have any actions, which would be more than offset if they get culted.

As I said, it will all come down to the Vig, as they will swing it one way or the other.

by **BoomFrog** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:30 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I really don't understand Adam's reasoning for voting me. Town not using actions hurts Mafia, as they will be more likely to be ~~copped~~ culted. Mafia would only be slightly more powerful than vanilla mafia if we don't have any actions, which would be more than offset if they get culted.

As I said, it will all come down to the Vig, as they will swing it one way or the other.

I assume that's what you ment to type.

So, does withholding all actions improve towns chances of winning verses a slightly bolder plan such as both cops use thier powers on N2. If both cops use thier power on the same target on an even night then the beatcop might get recruited but the detective will know the target is anti-town and will reveal himself and leads a lynch on the cult recruiter. (can't do an exorcisim since it's not known if the target is cult or mafia) This is the the worst case sinario for town and it's still not that bad as we now can use our powers. The cop claiming D3 isn't that much of a loss, although losing the beat-cop sucks.

I can see arguments for withhold on N1 and maybe even having medics withhold on N2 still, but withholding all actions is clearly not the best plan.

Here is a bunch of analysis that I think isn't that useful since I thought of the much simpler argument above. But it makes me sad to delete it so I'm keeping it here in case someone else finds it useful.

Spoiler:

by **mpolo** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 7:04 am UTC

I've been going somewhat back and forth on the whole "no actions" thing (at least in my own mind). Clearly, a plan that totally stops us from using actions is going to favor the mafia (against cult and town). A plan that uses actions indiscriminately favors cult (against mafia and town). We have to find the correct middle ground.

Some rules musing:
1) Cult is relatively benign at present, as it only has one member. It will increase in size by a maximum of one person per night, but could easily remain at one person. If the number of actions being carried out is controlled (on odd-numbered nights, particularly), then the cult may never grow beyond one person. The threat of the cult will increase rapidly if it manages to grow, especially when kills are taken into account.
2) The mafia has a lot of powers and has a kill. It seems to me that it would be highly beneficial to block the kill. Current plans leave the cult as the only "blockage method" for the kill. If mafia happens to hit cult, of course, this means that the mafia will most likely spend the next night killing their own ex-member, which would be helpful indeed.
3) On the other hand, our medical kits are a very limited resource. Each medic only gets to doctor once. If we manage to have all three alive and unculted on D3, they all get a second doctor.
4) Exorcists shouldn't act until they are reasonable sure of themselves, since a failure to correctly identify the cult causes a loss of their power.

I guess that means that I'm looking at the people most pushing a "no action" strategy (GoP rings a bell in my memory) as the most likely mafia members. We don't really have anybody pushing indiscriminate use of actions.

I need to do an at least partial re-read based on these ideas before voting.

Lataro: I will almost certainly be offline from Sunday mid-morning until Wednesday mid-afternoon. If this is going to cause undo problems, feel free to replace, but I will do everything possible to keep up. I suspect that my absence won't affect this particular game all too much (i.e. we should be barely into D2 by the time I am back).

by **ForAllOfThis** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 7:50 am UTC

Your both failing to take into account the usefulness of our actions (at least tonight) is extremely limited. The chance of hitting scum is very low tonight (and the chance to be culted is equally low, see my probabilities in an earlier post). I also know from past games town powers rarely end up being useful till end game (final day, or day before).

Also, someone mentioned that we have a powerful scum team, but if we're not using any powers it practically makes them vanilla scum. Both the mafia reflector and roleblocker become useless, and we can't successfully cop the godfather anyway. Copping cult results in losing a town player, which we would be better not losing. Then there is the problem of false cops due to the godfather, cult and reflector, so we can't really trust any cop results we are given.

I'm almost certainly going to vote someone who is encouraging people to use actions. There are just too many redirection powers to benefit from using them.

by **mpolo** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 11:17 am UTC

O.K. I can buy that. The mafia powers are less useful if we are not using actions. But we do have to find mafia (or cult, but mafia is a bigger problem at present). And I think that we are more or less in agreement -- if someone really believes that his action will have a positive value for the town without too much risk, he should go ahead and do so, but barring near-certainty of his target, it's probably better to wait.

I had an idea about what "lynch bastardry" might mean, but I won't discuss it, because I would have to talk about a greatly inferior game.

by **BoomFrog** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 3:31 pm UTC

Well I still disagree with FAOT and GoP but the topic has been beaten to death. FAOT's style has been pinging me a bit, especially threatening people with his vote to get them to agree with his strategy, however he is playing similarly 'elsewhere' so I am unsure. At any rate GoP will rarely take a bold stance as scum so I'm going to assume he is town for now.

There are way to many people who have dropped off the map. Worst of them I think is DL.
Unvote
Vote DarkLoink

by **Adam H** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:09 pm UTC

Ugh, I didn't really see the mafia had a reflecting power. That's an opinion changer... How balanced is a game with 8 vanillas (2 masons), 1 nonkilling enemy faction, and 3 mafias? The twist is the OCD vig, I suppose.

unvote

I guess I'll vote for a lurker who usually gives good content...

vote: webby

by **Gopher of Pern** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 8:49 pm UTC

Yes, BF, that is what I meant. :oops:

Is Weiyaoli going to be replaced?

I understand Webby has been uncharacteristically lurky, but they are in a multitude of games. Instead, I'll go the other Lurky Mclurkerson.

Vote: Ibarra

by **webby** » Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:49 pm UTC

Sorry, I'll try to do better. I did a proper analysis in roband's game yesterday, I have to go out now, but I'll aim to get one done when I get home tonight or tomorrow morning for this game.

by **webby** » Sat Oct 29, 2011 11:52 am UTC

Here's an analysis of players:

Spoiler:

1. greenlover - only one real post so far, so difficult to judge. Ideas about the night actions are same as mine. Points out Dark Loink's post about the cult being dangerous, Boomfrog's aggressiveness (I don't actually think Boomfrog is playing differently to normal) and Adam H being 'too agreeable' as the three things that have made him suspicious so far. No judgment until more content, but the one post he's made is good.

2. weiyaoli - First page - three short posts with not much new content. Then needs replacement.

3. Ibarra - No good content at all. Two short posts - the first says he can't think of a good strategy and the second one just asks a question which has already been put forward. Lurker, but he's exactly the same in roband's game. No idea on alignment.

4. Adam H - Nothing early, except for the statement that mafia is very powerful and our best chance is to hope they hit cult. More content recently. Not as argumentative as usual - no idea if that's a good sign or a bad sign (in the games I've played before with him he's been town and argumentative). Neutral to slightly scummy because he does seem different to usual.

6. DarkLoink - Joke post, then good suggestion on how we might find culted players. Then notes the danger of the cult. This is slightly suspicious - the first three posts of his focus entirely on it with nothing about the mafia at all. Then there's no more posts. Scummy, possible mafia. I think I agree with Boomfrog and greenlover here.

7. BoomFrog - Content is mostly pretty good - I agree with greenlover and FOAT that he's being aggressive, but he normally is as town. Very forthcoming with his opinions and probably the player providing the most content. Townie.

8. mpolo - Difficult - no original content early, but admittedly seemed busy at the start of the game. Last couple of posts are better - he gives a clear statement of his suspicions and goes into aspects of the set-up that other players haven't really focussed on. Slightly townie.

9. Gopher of Pern - Suggests that the right thing to do is to withhold all actions and brings up the idea that we would like mafia to use their actions so they might get culted. Suggests that he is probably not the cultist. Then agrees with the idea of two cops targeting the same person, but only on even nights. My opinion is that his priorities are a little bit off - that he should be focussing more on the mafia and less on the cult, but that's possibly just a genuine disagreement. Votes for a lurker, which is often the easy way out (although in this game it's hard not to vote for a lurker when there are so many). Overall neutral to very slightly townie, there's the negative stuff I've said above, but at least he's active and I see it as plausible that he would act the way he is as town. I agree with Boomfrog that he's often a bit more cautious as scum.

10. Lorenz - First to come up with a decent cop strategy. Very lurky at the moment. Slightly townie (or rather non-mafia) for the cop stuff.

11. Silknor - Discussion of who should act (concludes that cops should if they have good reads). Good point made that cops could help the vig for night 2 (and in fact it might be worth lynching the second-scummiest rather than the scummiest player on day 2). Points out that we may not get any useful cop results under an even night strategy. All his content is good, but I would like more of it and on a broader range of issues than just the cops. (I should probably take my own advice on that though). Slightly townie.

12. ForAllOfThis - First to suggest withholding actions, but I think that would have been suggested anyway. Agrees with the 'both target the same person' cop idea if the cops are using their powers at all, which he doesn't think they should. Gets into an argument with Boomfrog over it. Thinks that the problem with the cops is that there are lots of redirection powers around, as well as one scum who's godfather. Becomes more set in his views on this over the course of the game, until he says he's almost certainly going to vote for someone who's suggesting using actions. Unlikely cultist, but possible mafia. Neutral.

And that's it! In order from scum to town (leaving out weiyaoli, who will probably be replaced or modkilled):
1. Dark Loink
2. Adam H
3. Ibarra
4. FOAT
5. GoP
6. greenlover
7. mpolo
8. Silknor
9. Lorenz
10. Boomfrog

(I'd group them together as 1-2 scummy, 3 lurker, 4-5 neutral, 6-10 townie)

Reading back through all the posts made me think more about the withholding cops argument. FOAT seems to have made the strongest argument for withholding them - that they're unlikely to be particularly useful given the number of redirects etc. in the game. I would note two things - firstly that the risk is only of false negatives, not false positives - so we know that a result of anti-town can be trusted. The second is that scum are likely to withhold their reflector/roleblock if there aren't any cops acting, so that The third is that if we have them both targetting the same player, it's not a disaster to hit the cultist. We lose a cop, but we also basically remove one of the anti-town factions by lynching the next day.

Interested to hear FOAT's response to this.

Vote: Dark Loink

by **mpolo** » Sat Oct 29, 2011 12:59 pm UTC

On the one hand, it's always nice to get a result that helps from a cop early on. But, as FAOT has said, that doesn't happen all that often (i.e. only if the cops have a good scumdar to begin with). The reflector is less dangerous than I thought at first, because it is a targeted reflector -- the mafia has to pick somebody who will be reflected back on himself. It still adds confusion and strife to the night and the interpretation of results, though.

But I said I was going to leave that theme behind.

I had totally forgotten that DarkLoink was in the game -- and I don't see any posts from him in the preview box, so I take it that he has really been lurky. As the lurkage is passive at the moment, I will hold off and wait on the mod to notice that case.

Adam H has had a few posts that just seem off. As Silknor has pointed out, some apparent content posts were really pretty lacking. On the other hand, he is closer to my gut feeling about the use of powers.

FAOT has been the most adamant about avoiding using our powers. GoP seems to be firmly with him on this.

BoomFrog is playing agressively, but I think in a townie sort of way.

Silknor's analysises have been very helpful up to now.

Most anybody else is coming up pretty neutral (caveat: I haven't reread throughliy) at the moment.

I amm tending to think that the Adam H attitude is scummier than the FAOT/GoP one.

by **Lataro** » Sat Oct 29, 2011 2:55 pm UTC

Votals:

Dark Loink - 2 - (BoomFrog, webby)
webby - 1 - (Adam H)
Ibarra - 1 - (GoP)

Deadline in ~3 days 5 hours or so.

weiyaoli will likely not be replaced due to roband being busy though this weekend. weiyaoli will be back when he's feeling better presumably shortly.

by **weiyaoli** » Sat Oct 29, 2011 3:00 pm UTC

Feeling better now, but very busy today to catch up with missed work. I'll have something out by tomorrow.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Sun Oct 30, 2011 3:36 am UTC

webby wrote:I would note two things - firstly that the risk is only of false negatives, not false positives - so we know that a result of anti-town can be trusted.

This is true. Which means we really only have half a cop (because we can only trust one set of results). I would even say that the beat cop is more useful because at least if he gets reflected by the mafia, he will know (should show up as the person he copped as targeting himself).

The second is that scum are likely to withhold their reflector/roleblock if there aren't any cops acting, so that The third is that if we have them both targetting the same player, it's not a disaster to hit the cultist. We lose a cop, but we also basically remove one of the anti-town factions by lynching the next day.

Yea but the cult can be used against mafia. Also, I'd rather save our cops for mafia finds. Usually I'd encourage the death of one townie for the death of one scum/cult leader, but it seems a waste when the scum faction can almost be 100% avoided with some common sense.

3.30am at the moment so going to come back and do some player analysis and put a vote down before the deadline. Hopefully will be sometime tomorrow.

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