xkcd

by **Lataro** » Wed Nov 02, 2011 1:38 am UTC

Effective Immediately, Ibarra has been replaced by Metabot for inactivity.

Please people, be active, we have no replacements lined up left...

by **Lataro** » Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:07 pm UTC

Deadline is in ~22 hours. Any action not submitted by then will default as withheld. Please send notice if you want to withhold an action though, as it makes processing easier.

by **Lataro** » Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:16 pm UTC

Things, happened, exciting things! It wouldn't be much fun to tell you all what went down though!

As I think on it, the lynch mechanics were fun, but we can make it more fun! Lets change things up a bit! It'll be fun!

Just ignore that pesky roband, he'll be useless to you all, since he isn't fun!

No one has died N1. It is now D2. Deadline will be whatever non-fun deadline roband sets in his thread.

All players alive still.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:13 pm UTC

So, the mafia either didn't submit a kill, or they got culted. Unless one of the town doctors used their ability. Lataro did say things happened, but I'm not inclined to trust them at this stage.

FAOT, do you not have a vote in this game? I noticed your vote on Adam did not get counted.

Out of the active people Silknor or Lorenz did not vote for anybody for either game. Greenlover did not vote in this game. Lets hope the replacements add something.

So, I suppose how today goes will depend on who used actions last night. If no-one did, we are right back to square one, only now we have the even night to contend with, which means the vig will have to pick very carefully, so as to avoid 2 town kills. I'd say with the way it's set up now, it could be a very good night to start using our actions, as everyone is still alive, and there is no chance of the cult redirecting onto themselves, so there is just the 1/11 chance of hitting the cultist. Doctors I would maybe recommend saving their actions, as they will be more useful later on.

by **Lataro** » Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:23 pm UTC

Sorry, I must have missed his vote. That was mod oversight, not a mechanic.

Please point out any and all votal errors, there is no bastardry or anything at all to do with controlling people's votes or taking them away.

by **Metabot** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 2:22 am UTC

Hey Guys,

I'm Metabot,

Things to know about me:
This is my first game of forum mafia (lol), so if I'll try not to act too scummy, but please tell me if you do. If you want to lynch me, I'm all right with that if it will teach me something in the future.

Anyway, I'm looked through this thread (and the other one) and the setup is way more complex than I'm used to. Whats the general consensus of action?

by **webby** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:44 am UTC

GoP, my guess would be that they didn't submit a kill. That way, they avoid being culted N1 and they increase the odds that the suicidal vig gets it wrong on N2.

Speaking of the vig, is it possible that today we want to elect a scummiest and second-scummiest candidate for the lynch and lynch the second-scummiest? That gives the vig a better option to aim at? (I'm aware that this is a Lataro game and he would be highly disapproving of such discussion on who the vig should kill.

)

by **weiyaoli** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:07 am UTC

Another possibility I can see happening is that they targeted BF who was protected by a doctor.

Since we probably still have both the beat cop and the detective (i.e. neither was culted), they can use their powers today without threat of redirection from cult. I think the idea that detective cops someone and then the beatcop follows them was a good one from yesterday since it effectively also stops a mafia kill on the detective unless the beatcop gets redirected by another scum by threat of revealing the scum who targets BF with the kill.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:35 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:Since we probably still have both the beat cop and the detective (i.e. neither was culted), they can use their powers today without threat of redirection from cult.

You know they weren't recruited, how? Surely only the cult leader would know that?

weiyaoli wrote:I think the idea that detective cops someone and then the beatcop follows them was a good one from yesterday since it effectively also stops a mafia kill on the detective unless the beatcop gets redirected by another scum by threat of revealing the scum who targets BF with the kill.

Now BF's cover is blown the targetting the same person is practically useless with the roleblock and redirect (and not sure how it would stop a mafia kill, would only stop a recruit). We could get the vigilante to target someone, and a medic to protect them. That way we don't risk losing two townies in one shot but is a more defensive play. It might leave BF unprotected tonight as well, which I wouldn't be comfortable with.

The only way to confirm my exorcist claim is to have the other exorcist claim and see if anyone counterclaims. I'd rather that, than another attempt to lynch me.

by **weiyaoli** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:39 pm UTC

ForAllOfThis wrote:
weiyaoli wrote:Since we probably still have both the beat cop and the detective (i.e. neither was culted), they can use their powers today without threat of redirection from cult.

You know they weren't recruited, how? Surely only the cult leader would know that?

Note the probably. I don't know if they were recruited, but that was the most likely scenario if they didn't use their powers (as many people agreed on in thread). The ie was to clarify that I didn't mean that they were both still alive which was obvious.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 9:15 pm UTC

FAOT, an exorcist claim is pretty safe. I missed it the first time, which is why I tossed up voting between yourself and Adam. Mafia won't want to kill you, and the cult can't recruit you, so you're a safe town atm.

Just re-reading the roles, and the Mafia is actually in a pretty good position. They have day and night chat, and their role-cop works during the day as well as the night, so they know potentially 5 roles, including BF and FAOT.

If the role-cop targets the cultist during the day, will they still be culted?

They have a reflector and a one shot roleblock to harass us, and a role-cop to make sure they know which targets to use those abilities on. Now, if I were scum, a reflect would be most useful on whichever cop they dont kill. This would ensure no investigations could be done. A slightly lower probability use would be on the vig, making them kill themselves. But the vig might do that anyway. Anyone who isn't of the above roles is either a medic or an exorcist. Only the medics are of concern to the mafia, so with one exorcist known, they have a good chance to roleblock a medic, but maybe not the right one.

Next post I'll look into other peoples posts.

by **roband** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 9:29 pm UTC

Lataro will probably do some boring mod thing like direct you to the first post (which doesn't contain the answer to your question btw), rather than just answer

So not fun.

by **Lataro** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:11 pm UTC

roband is a funless vagabond, ignore him.

Cult's recruit is only trigger-able at night, day actions are safe.

by **roband** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:17 pm UTC

Lataro has a funless soul. And I know something he doesn't know...

by **Metabot** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:24 pm UTC

Uh I don't really know what to say, and I don't want anybody to think I'm lurking cause I'm scum, so could someone ask me questions or something?

Or is this game going to be less about getting good reads, and more about logic?

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:14 pm UTC

Fine Metabot:

What do you think of the strategy of not using actions N1.

What do you think of Weiyaoli?

Who do you think is scummiest?

Who do you think might be cult?

by **BoomFrog** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 7:38 am UTC

FAOT, an exorcist claim is pretty safe. I missed it the first time, which is why I tossed up voting between yourself and Adam. Mafia won't want to kill you, and the cult can't recruit you, so you're a safe town atm.

Why do you assume that FAOT's exorcist claim is true? Unless another exporcist claims then there is no way to verify if his claim brings the total number of exorcists to three or not.

I think FAOT is pretty clearly scum and I'm happy to just let the vig kill him tonight. We should focus on finding someone else to lynch.

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:10 am UTC

I think that he's saying that an Exorcist claim is so-to-speak the standard claim for scum, which means that we can't put a whole lot of stock into the claim. That is, FAOT has to prove his towniness in some other way before we are compelled to believe this exorcist claim.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:21 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I think FAOT is pretty clearly scum and I'm happy to just let the vig kill him tonight. We should focus on finding someone else to lynch.

Ahahaha, I wouldn't do that if I were you. Lataro is a massive bastard.

by **bantler** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:56 pm UTC

Exorcist is a terrible scum-lie. It’s not a power role that the Mafia will kill, so counter claiming is completely safe. Now, voting to hang an Exorcist is a reckless affront to the good people of this town...

I agree with two target s per day to aid the vigilante.

The mafia should’ve killed last night. No reason not to. They can’t just cower in fear on odd nights or they’ve already lost. Two possibilities remain:
A Mafia dude was culted, and they know it.
A doctor acted and protected someone (against the consensus of the thread) and saved the mafia target. And might be culted.

by **Adam H** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:16 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I think that he's saying that an Exorcist claim is so-to-speak the standard claim for scum.

Hmmmm I would have thought medic would be the standard claim - maybe exorcist would be the standard claim for cult... I'm inclined to believe FOAT in any case.

And I am disinclined to believe that GoP missed FOAT's claim. It was the most recent post when GoP voted, but also the posts were 20 minutes apart so it's not like he got ninja'd...

I suspect BF was culted. 1) cult wouldn't have much incentive to redirect anyone else. 2) BF wouldn't have much incentive to hold back his power - if he's redirected the game gets interesting for him, and if not then he gains information that helps town. And 3) his apparent certainty that FOAT is scum is a bit alarming. (Though BF is probably much better at reading people than I am.)

My best guesses are... Cult: mpolo, maybe BF; Mafia: GoP, greenlover, Metabot?, Bantler?

webby wrote:I'm aware that this is a Lataro game and he would be highly disapproving of such discussion on who the vig should kill.

Um. Not really, right? How is it different than discussing who to lynch?

Ninja'd:

bantler wrote:A doctor acted and protected someone (against the consensus of the thread) and saved the mafia target. And might be culted.

Hmmmm, so you are speculating that perhaps doctor targetted mafia's NK target, and became cult. But the order of night actions makes it so that if doctor healed cult, they would be culted but the cult would not be healed (the redirector is immune to the first action). So mafia's NK would succeed. Therefore: If mafia submitted a target, all of our doctors are unculted. (It's EXTREMELY unlikely that a medic was culted anyways)

Also, I agree that the mafia probably should have submitted a kill. However, making it seem certain that they did strikes me as a bit scummy. If we are fairly certain that mafia submitted a kill, then it's more likely we go after cult while ignoring mafia. So a slight FoS on Bantler.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:17 pm UTC

Keep an eye on AdamH. Now that he has less.. distractions, he could be dangerous.

by **Silknor** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:20 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:Also, I agree that the mafia probably should have submitted a kill. However, making it seem certain that they did strikes me as a bit scummy. If we are fairly certain that mafia submitted a kill, then it's more likely we go after cult while ignoring mafia. So a slight FoS on Bantler.

Why are you trying to plant the suggestion that we should ignore the mafia in favor of focusing on the cult? Besides that it's very unlikely we'll be in a situation where we want to pick between scummy (mafiaish) and scummy (cultish) (note that the cop only gets a result of anti-town, not mafia or cult), I think even if we could, it'd be the wrong call! Say the mafia is dead. The town can easily eliminate the cult through denying them new recruits and using exorcism. The closest thing the cult has to a NK is if they recruit the Target Painting Godfather then they effectively have a one shot kill which is only useful if that player isn't the last cultist lynched. A cult that can't grow is quite weak, town benefits as the game goes on longer, and with no recruit/kill each night, it's likely the game would go on for a couple extra days if the mafia is eliminated compared to the case where a NK remains. This does assume the Vig will die before D5, but really that seems quite likely, picking two anti-town in a row would be quite difficult.

Your little suggestion pinged me harder than anything I've seen today.

On to other matters, I think it's likely the mafia submitted a kill. The mafia benefits from shorter games and if they put in no kill, especially versus a cop mason group, they only extend the game.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:19 pm UTC

If scum did submit a kill, we have a few possibilities.

Scum hit culter. The scum picked badly, and got recruited.

Scum hit someone, but got redirected. Cult got lucky, and recruited scum.

Scum hit someone, but someone doctored them. May be possible, as BF was a target for Mafia, so a medic may have gambled on protecting BF.

I am actually thinking one of the last 2, as it would be likely that scum would pick out one of the town roles that could hurt them. Not sure whether it was a redirect or a doctor.

Silknor has a point Adam, if cult is the only scum left, they are in trouble, because they will not be able to recruit anymore. We could simply let the exorcists try their hand, and then lynch the remainder.

by **bantler** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:46 pm UTC

Exorcists may as claim and act before they get killed. No sense waiting for the pool to drain if someone stabs them in the back.

I’m considering the possibility of the medics forming a chain of protection with a beat-cop watching over them? Trouble with too many claims is that everyone else is cult-bait.

Ideally we should lynch the cult and vig a mafian today. I’m leaning towards fitting gopher with a rope.

by **Adam H** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:09 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:Why are you trying to plant the suggestion that we should ignore the mafia in favor of focusing on the cult?

Your argument is so compelling that I've gone back in time (wait this isn't dr. who!) and posted something along those lines. But yeah, it seemed to me that Bantler planted that suggestion (very sneakily). I thought it pingy for the same reasons you found me pingy. I absolutely agree that we should not ignore mafia...

bantler wrote:Ideally we should lynch the cult and vig a mafian today.

I'd much rather lynch mafia. Why do you think lynching cult would be better? My FoS grows stronger...

by **weiyaoli** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:29 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:
bantler wrote:Ideally we should lynch the cult and vig a mafian today.
I'd much rather lynch mafia. Why do you think lynching cult would be better? My FoS grows stronger...

I assume he means that we should lynch the cult leader and vig the mafia so that the vig cannot be recruited if he vigs cult leader. Although how the vig would be able to tell if someone is cult rather than scum I have no clue.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:36 pm UTC

The next mod post will contain a secret message. Bonus powers to the first to discover it and PM Lataro with the answer.

by **Silknor** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:38 pm UTC

Adam H, I'm not sure if you misread what I said or are trying to obfuscate to dodge the accusation. I was talking about your line, quoted below, as the one that was trying to plant that suggestion subtlety. And I find it quite suspicious. I see it as trying to channel other people's suspicions that the mafia submitted a kill (a suspicion I share), into the anti-town idea that we should ignore the mafia to go after the cult. Given that you seem to radically change your mind a lot (always pretending you were saying the same thing in both cases), based on my experience with you here and in All the King's Men, I don't take the least bit of comfort in knowing you once were trying to promote the opposite opinion.

If we are fairly certain that mafia submitted a kill, then it's more likely we go after cult while ignoring mafia

Also, I think what bantler was saying is that if we had a scum and a cult identified, we'd lynch the cult and NK the scum because if you tried to do it in the other order, I'm pretty sure the rules mean the vig would get culted. He didn't say however, that this is obviously a ridiculous situation to expect us to be in.

Ninja: Weiyaoli beat me to it.

by **bantler** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:47 pm UTC

It’s not a ridiculous situation at all; it’s the exact situation the vigilante is in every day he takes a shot. I’m just proposing we all make an effort to share in the glory or goat of his kill.

by **bantler** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:07 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I think FAOT is pretty clearly scum and I'm happy to just let the vig kill him tonight. We should focus on finding someone else to lynch.

Curious…
I see no reason why the 2nd Exorcist shouldn't claim. They are not targets for Mafia-Kills until the cult is dead, and by then they'll be vanilla anyway.
If we get two more claims, we know we have to purge. That makes much more sense than wanton bullets, yes?

by **roband** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:10 pm UTC

Also, you guys missed the deadline for asking about the typo in the title. It was a FUN typo which Lataro did on purpose. Anyone who asked would have gained a rolecop (missing r for rolecop, geddit?)

by **Adam H** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:02 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:Adam H, I'm not sure if you misread what I said or are trying to obfuscate to dodge the accusation. I was talking about your line, quoted below, as the one that was trying to plant that suggestion subtlety. And I find it quite suspicious. I see it as trying to channel other people's suspicions that the mafia submitted a kill (a suspicion I share), into the anti-town idea that we should ignore the mafia to go after the cult. Given that you seem to radically change your mind a lot (always pretending you were saying the same thing in both cases), based on my experience with you here and in All the King's Men, I don't take the least bit of comfort in knowing you once were trying to promote the opposite opinion.

If we are fairly certain that mafia submitted a kill, then it's more likely we go after cult while ignoring mafia

I didn't understand your accusation... To answer, well, my statement is obviously 100% true from what I can tell. I said it to justify my accusation of Bantler, who seems to be promoting the anti-town idea that we should ignore the mafia and go after the cult.

by **Silknor** » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:07 pm UTC

I don't buy it.

Vote: Adam H

by **bantler** » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:08 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:FAOT, an exorcist claim is pretty safe. I missed it the first time, which is why I tossed up voting between yourself and Adam. Mafia won't want to kill you, and the cult can't recruit you, so you're a safe town atm.

I don't think you did miss it. I think you read the few sentences claim that sat at the end of the queue for half an hour before you posted to lynch a "safe Town" Exorcist.

Three reasons why you would do that:
~ You're reckless.
~ You're cult.
~ You were protecting your scum-buddy runner up Adam H.

You've earned my vote.

vote: gopher of pern

by **webby** » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:32 am UTC

Note the first day of C9++ to see bantler's typical playstyle. In that game, he was town and all the other townies (and no scum) voted for him on day 1. I have no idea how he plays as scum, but just keep that in mind.

I agree with those who say exorcist is the standard scum claim. Medic isn't a good claim because they have to make up who they protected and why, but more so because cult might target them (if mafia) and because mafia might target them (if cult).

All else being equal, someone who claims exorcist has a 2/3 chance of being scum and 1/3 chance of being town, simply because there are 6 people in the game who would claim exorcist and only 2 of them are town. Does that make sense? That by itself is almost enough to make me want to vote for FAOT. But as Boomfrog said, I'll leave that to the vig.

I'll look into who my second choice would be later.

by **bantler** » Tue Nov 08, 2011 2:01 am UTC

webby wrote:Note the first day of C9++ to see bantler's typical playstyle. In that game, he was town and all the other townies (and no scum) voted for him on day 1. I have no idea how he plays as scum, but just keep that in mind.

I agree with those who say exorcist is the standard scum claim. Medic isn't a good claim because they have to make up who they protected and why, but more so because cult might target them (if mafia) and because mafia might target them (if cult).

My playstyle is to post often and hang?
Exorcist is a terrible claim; there are only two. No room to hide. We'd let them blast their guess then slaughter all three and still come out ahead. I'll reiterate that both should claim. If we only get two we'll move on. We are NOT going to kill one for giggles.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:11 am UTC

No, your style is to get on everyone's nerves, and get lynched for it

I know I'm not gonna convince anyone that I did miss it, but I did, or at least I didn't consider it before placing my vote. I literally had to go back through the thread today when FAOT said they'd claimed. Find something else to pin my scumminess on, and then your vote might have some merit. And please capitalise my name.

I'm in favour of the exorcists claiming. The main period of danger with the cult is over, and mafia would prefer to target someone else. Exorcist is the easiest claim to hide in.

by **mpolo** » Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:06 am UTC

I can see both arguments about the claiming of Exorcists. And am actually almost convinced by the idea that they are a good thing to claim for most people. [Since they're not targets for the Mafia or for cult redirection.] But I'm not going to push that. I'm leaving that decision to personal judgment of the affected parties.

I was a bit worried a bit about bantler's statements, but by the end, I think he has a point. If we were to really know who cult is, it would be better to lynch them. More likely is that we simply have to lynch the scummiest person.

And Adam H is rapidly coming into that position. I want to reread his statements after having let them sit for a while, before making a decision there.

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Nov 08, 2011 9:05 am UTC

Adam H wrote:I suspect BF was culted. 1) cult wouldn't have much incentive to redirect anyone else. 2) BF wouldn't have much incentive to hold back his power - if he's redirected the game gets interesting for him, and if not then he gains information that helps town. And 3) his apparent certainty that FOAT is scum is a bit alarming. (Though BF is probably much better at reading people than I am.)

I was town for sure yesterday and I told my partner that I would not target anyone. It would be playing against my win condition to have lied to him yesterday. Therefore I am still not cult. (although my partner may be, he used his power last night).

AdamH wrote:Therefore: If mafia submitted a target, all of our doctors are unculted. (It's EXTREMELY unlikely that a medic was culted anyways)

This is technically not true. One of our medics could have blocked the NK and a different medic was culted. Unlikely though, I agree.

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