xkcd

by **greenlover** » Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:43 pm UTC

GoP wrote:So what? It's not anyone else is known at the moment. My reason is stated in the post directly before yours. If all the other cops copped FAOT and were not sane, it would mean theres a high probability that I am sane. Thus we could almost trust my result on Webby. As it is, all I have to do is cop FAOT tomorrow, and we end up with the exact same information, except now people will know that I've got a result on Webby already. I don't see why scum would go for this; they can easily decide amongst themselves how to go about this.

I'm not buying this, mostly because I doubt the mafia would let us get away with isolating a specific sanity for you. Lets assume for a second you're sane, every other cop is insane, and webby is not the godfather but still mafia. Do you think the mafia is going to let us figure that out by all claiming insane results? I honestly doubt it.

However, what investigating someone other than confirmed town does to is allow you to wait and see what everyone else's sanity is (or at least get a good idea of it) before you have to nail yourself down to a specific sanity. That's really the only benefit I can see. And that's honestly pretty scummy IMO. Thus,

Vote: GoP

Also, I might require a replacement in the near future, as I am unsure if I can do justice to my games and still keep up with my obligations.

by **roband** » Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:45 pm UTC

There will be no replacements in this game. If you drop out from now, you get modkilled. Not very fun, but neither is finding willing replacements.

by **roband** » Thu Nov 10, 2011 10:36 pm UTC

Lorenz and MetaBot have been modkilled due to inactivity.

Their roles will be revealed. At some point.

by **BoomFrog** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 2:56 am UTC

I don't think GoP's choice was scummy. I'd either vote for Bantler or Greenlover, but GL was also in on the bad AdamH lynch D1, also at least Bantler was voicing a new opinion, although I get the feeling that Bantler would be bold as scum. Still slightly tipped towards GL.

Vote GL

When is the deadline and what are the Vtotals?

We should make sure we don't have a tie, under any reasonable system for combining the two games vtotals. The two ways I'd consider possible are adding up the totals or just using both but together. (for example if GL and GoP had 4 and 3 votes in this game and no one had over 2 votes in the other game it's possible both GL and GoP would be lynched in both games or something wierd).

by **Silknor** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 3:12 am UTC

What happened to the "you're supposed to ignore what happens in the other game"?

It's a bastard game and I don't want to tempt Fate.

I don't really understand what Bantler finds suspicious in GOP.

by **BoomFrog** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 6:57 am UTC

Silknor wrote:What happened to the "you're supposed to ignore what happens in the other game"?

This game doesn't have that rule

by **mpolo** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:06 am UTC

But we can't tell roband anything about the less fun game.

There are a lot of ways that the votes could be combined. My first idea on hour 1 was that the votes here counted there and the votes there counted here. It has been hinted that the bastardry is not the same in the two games. I don't think I'm going to come up with two people who are scummy in both games, though. (Since we can't vote for the same person in both games.)

Greenlover may be a good choice if he's really courting modkill for coming inactivity (so as to have 3 deaths instead of 4). If he is going to be able to keep playing in some form, this would only be good if we really think that he is scum.

by **roband** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:18 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:When is the deadline and what are the Vtotals? .

Deadline is at 9:20pm on the 14th - GMT.

Votals on their way shortly.

by **roband** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 9:30 am UTC

Votals
GoP 2 (Bantler, Greenlover)
greenlover 1 (BoomFrog)

by **BoomFrog** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:01 am UTC

Yeah, it's a good thing I asked since you still managed to miscount. I'm voting for GL.

by **roband** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 10:07 am UTC

Your.. er.. your vote HAD NO COLON AND I GOT CONFUSED.

SHUDDUP AND ENJOY YOUR FUN

by **weiyaoli** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 4:05 pm UTC

I've totally been neglecting this game sorry. I'll have a post ASAP today.

by **bantler** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 5:50 pm UTC

roband wrote:Lorenz and MetaBot have been modkilled due to inactivity.

Their roles will be revealed. At some point.

Will The Point be before night?

Silknor wrote:What happened to the "you're supposed to ignore what happens in the other game"?

It's a bastard game and I don't want to tempt Fate.

I don't really understand what Bantler finds suspicious in GOP.

Fate can suck it.

It's pretty clear. When looking for bad apples I check for bruises.

by **weiyaoli** » Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:39 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I wish everyone had targeted another cop last night, I thought we'd made that the plan at some point...?

When did we ever make/agree on this plan? // Looking back, BF suggested this back on the first page, but I don't think got any comments at all, scanning the next few posts. I'm not sure why you felt this was still the best plan at the time though, especially since we did not know at the time that sanities would be revealed upon death. (And AdamH having claimed of course ---> no psychologist results at all expected)

The only concern I have right now is the modkills. Right now we are at:

Spoiler:

I can see where bantler and gl are coming from I guess, that last post from GoP was pretty strange (as surely if we lynched him today it would give us more information than we would have had on webby tomorrow i.e. his sanity and whether we can trust his cop on webby) instead of waiting for him to cop FAOT as well. mpolo has been a bit passive as well.

by **webby** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 11:13 am UTC

All else being equal, the best lynch is clearly GoP. If he's scum then it's great, while if he's town, then at least I get confirmed as town (as long as he's sane or insane). No other lynch gives us that much information. Having said that, I haven't been as convinced of his scumminess as others seem to be. We have three days left I think, so I'm not going to vote yet, I'll try to do a proper read through first.

The next question is who we should cop tonight. Assuming no random cops, we can either completely solve our sanity by copping a confirmed town, or we can cop a cop claimant. I think the second option is best. That way, if you get the same result as before, they're either scum or you're naive/paranoid, while if you get the opposite result to your FAOT one, they're town. I'm assuming no random cops here - I would speculate that there's either no random cops or there's three (ie one is sane, the rest are random). I still think the most likely scenario is one of each of the four usual sanities.

by **mpolo** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 7:53 pm UTC

I've been somewhat passive for the fact of being confirmed town, which means I can look out for someone to slip up. But I am trying to participate actively.

RE: Sanities of the cops. Roband stated at one point:

Sanity of any roles will not be made public by the mod.

However, in the morning (beginning of the next hour) text, we did get a sanity note. The original quote may have just been referring to the context of the questions that were flying at that point, and not in the context of flavor text, but I have a certain fear that GoP's sanity won't be revealed, and then a lynch of him would be useless.

Roband: Will the sanities of cops be revealed in the hour-begin text?

by **Gopher of Pern** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 11:44 pm UTC

Yes, that was my understanding too mpolo. But if my sanity does get revealed upon my death, I'd be glad to take the lynch, and hopefully we'll know whether Webby is scum or not. Obviously I would prefer someone else, but I think we should still be in a pretty good position if I get lynched, with plenty of information to get the lynches right afterwards.

by **roband** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:29 pm UTC

Sanities of ALL roles are revealed upon death.

Sorry for any confusion regarding that previous answer to a different question

by **ForAllOfThis** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 1:39 am UTC

I really want to vote GoP. "I'd be glad to take the lynch" is just way too much of a ping.

I'm in the same boat as other confirmed town, sorry for the passiveness guys. One of the problems is come tomorrow your going to know more information than us and therefore will be better at scum hunting. Today I should be contributing abit more though.

In response to webbys question, the best course of action will be to cop a confirmed townie (one of the vanillas). That will reveal the sanities of all of the town cops. Then the cops should cop each other in someway the day after. We will work that out when we get to it though. I'll be on before the deadline tomorrow to have a read and place a vote down.

by **BoomFrog** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 3:20 am UTC

ForAllOfThis wrote:In response to webbys question, the best course of action will be to cop a confirmed townie (one of the vanillas). That will reveal the sanities of all of the town cops. Then the cops should cop each other in someway the day after. We will work that out when we get to it though. I'll be on before the deadline tomorrow to have a read and place a vote down.

I strongly disagree. First of all copping more confirmed roles will garuntee we have no new information on hour 3. Secondly if cops target other cops on hour 3 and die "night 3" then we will have confirmed info for them on hour 4. There is no situation where checking a confirmed town tonight gives more info or info earlier.

by **Silknor** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 3:39 am UTC

Until you get a scum and a town result, you have no information, period, unless you received a message from a psychiatrist AND are sure it's from the town one. If you have no trustworthy psych message, then you can't get any certain information from 2+ of the same result because you could be guilty or paranoid, even though it increases the probability you make the right call (eg. if you know you're either naive or sane, you can improve your odds somewhat based on the percent chance you assign to each possibility). And you still really need someone you targeted to die, and the possibility you targeted the godfather still throws things off.

That said FAOT is wrong. Even 2 investigations on confirmed townies cannot confirm a cops sanity in all cases, only if they get different results. I'm not sure I see the value in going for sanities over information, frankly I don't think the cop results are going to be useful at all till day 4, maybe day 3 if the godfather turns up dead. Presumably by late game most confirmed townies will be dead, otherwise the scum just loses by process of elimination. To have a good chance of getting information, you at least need one of your targets dead, and of course you need 1 alive. Targeting only the living does not accomplish this, but targeting only the confirmed townies does even less. As I see it, it's necessary to target both a second confirmed townie and a cop. Which order this occurs in hardly seems to matter, since until you have differing results and at least one dead, you're just making guesses based on what you think the mods did with the sanities (and you're still hoping the godfather didn't throw you off).

by **BoomFrog** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 4:19 am UTC

Silknor wrote:As I see it, it's necessary to target both a second confirmed townie and a cop. Which order this occurs in hardly seems to matter, since until you have differing results and at least one dead, you're just making guesses based on what you think the mods did with the sanities (and you're still hoping the godfather didn't throw you off).

Incorrect. Lets say cop A targeted FOAT and Cop B and gets opposite results on each. We now know that Cop B is either the godfather or town. Copping a confirmed townie does not give any new information whatsoever, and we now know what result equals scum for Cop A so they can get a true reading on someone N3. The info won't be useful until N3 but we get more info if people target cops tonight. There's no need for one of your targets to die or for copping a second confirmed town.

by **Silknor** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 6:02 am UTC

Ah right, I neglected that with the differing results you have a baseline in the miller. Otherwise you wouldn't know if it's a sane or insane cop.

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 7:20 am UTC

Exactly, the miller works to our advantage here in sorting out the cops. BoomFrog has expressed the same fear I had a little ways back -- the scum could thoretically kill off both useful cops before we get a useful result -- chances of that are roughly 1 in 4 (since the cops don't know their own sanity, the mafia can't get a "read" off of anyone, unless their psychiatrist is involved). Actually, with the psychologist, they have a much better chance of eliminating our cops -- disturbingly better, actually:

1) End of Hour one they psyched either a cop or our psychologist, since we had already revealed the townies. With today's results, they have a 4 in 5 chance of knowing with certainty one of the useful cops (either they psyched him, or they psyched the other with his result). Assuming GoP is town, he would be the only gum to mess up this system of the mafia.
2) End of Hour two, they would presumably psych one of the other pair and kill the useful cop out of the pair they've already psyched. Then at End of Hour three they remove that one.

We need to find the mafia without counting on the cops to help us later, as there is very little chance that we will actually have cops at the point where their investigations are helpful.

I suppose this is why roband didn't care about our claiming -- it seems that we have really made things difficult for ourselves through the claim.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 7:31 am UTC

Silknor, you do realise the psychiatrist is dead?

Ok, for future reference:

Silknor investigated FAOT and got Guilty - Sane or Paranoid.
GoP investigated Webby - Unknown
Weiyaoli investigated FAOT and got Guilty - Sane or Paranoid.
Webby copped FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Greenlover copped FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Bantler coppy FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Lorenz is modkilled.

If we are assuming 1 of each, It is certain that one of the scum is amongst Webby, GL and Bantler. Judging from their responses, I believe GL is the most likely out of GL and bantler, and I have a result on Webby, so we can find out more tomorrow.

Vote: Greenlover

If you guys do want to go with lynching me, it will be slightly better than lynching other town, as you might have information on Webby, but you will be lynching town. But I will cop FAOT, or a confirmed town.

*ninja'd*
But still, if the scum kill off a cop tonight, and we've lynched one, that leaves 4 'cops' (with the modkill) with 2 or 3 scum among them. Then we can simply lynch our way to victory. Killing a cop would be bad for them, their best bet is if we lynch the useful cops.

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:32 am UTC

This actually looks like a reasonable way forward. It is at least likely (though not guaranteed) that there is one of each alignment. Which means that there is a mafia in the triad webby/greenlover/bantler.

Bantler - has been highly active and confrontational. Sometimes a bit annoying, but generally towny-ish. Voting GoP for not following the plan.

webby was copped town by GoP (which means nothing at this point), but is advocating lynching GoP, which has a 50% chance of identifying his alignment. I think that a scum webby wouldn't risk that.

greenlover is relatively inactive, which makes a reading hard, Not wanting to be modkilled to protect his faction is neutral (works for either possibility). He was involved in the AdamH lynch. He's voting GoP on the basis of him not following the plan. (Second vote on a possible wagon.)

Which means that I am leaning toward a greenlover lynch, though Bantler is in the realm of possibility. I think that webby is likely town (making GoP naive or sane).

by **BoomFrog** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 10:00 am UTC

GoP you should target a non-miller confirmed town (such as me). That way if you get an opposite result you will confirm webby is scum. If you targeted the miller and got an opposite result then we'd only know webby is town or the godfather.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 1:24 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:As I see it, it's necessary to target both a second confirmed townie and a cop. Which order this occurs in hardly seems to matter, since until you have differing results and at least one dead, you're just making guesses based on what you think the mods did with the sanities (and you're still hoping the godfather didn't throw you off).

Isn't that what I said?

In response to webbys question, the best course of action will be to cop a confirmed townie (one of the vanillas). That will reveal the sanities of all of the town cops. Then the cops should cop each other in someway the day after.

There is a good reason for that order, we can make each cop sanity public tomorrow which I believe will make scum hunting a little easier (although unsure if the sane cop should lie tomorrow, so not to give away their identity). If GoP turns up as Naive/Paranoid, then we get no information about Webby. We are assuming that he is sane/insane for lynching him to work.

by **bantler** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 4:13 pm UTC

Every night the cops will cop each other, and every day we’ll lynch one. Maybe we should schedule a circle of scans to prevent overlap?
The win is just a spreadsheet away. Minus the bastardly bumps…

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:11 pm UTC

I'm going to go for greenlover, above all to reduce the number of deaths here (since he's still on the edge). No telling what the vote "actually means" due to bastardry:

Vote: greenlover

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:12 pm UTC

By the way, it seems like the two games end the day at different times. Maybe we do get a lynch today.

by **Lataro** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:17 pm UTC

Day Two is totally over, the fail mod will announce who was lynched in short order and set a night deadline.

by **roband** » Tue Nov 15, 2011 9:03 am UTC

Votals
GoP 2 (Bantler, Greenlover)
greenlover 3 (BoomFrog, GoP, mpolo)

Greenlover has been lynched. It is now the end of Hour 2.

'Night' actions can now commence. You have 72 hours from this post. There will then be another short break whilst the mods sync everything again.

by **roband** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:59 pm UTC

Heavy rain now. Barely a sound inside the police office. No-one wants to talk much after they shot that guy. Searching his body, they found his identity.

Greenlover was lynched, he was the mafia psychologist. He was PARANOID.

More whispers, not quite audible but it was obvious that communication was happening between two people.
The talking stopped. Everyone flinched. BOOM! Everyone jumped. Not everyone. One person won't be jumping ever again.

BoomFrog is dead. He was the cleaner, town. He was INSANE.

Everyone relaxed a little, almost accustomed to the dead bodies which were now accumulating. But not everyone could relax.
Two thuds, like sacks of potatoes being dropped, and some strangled cries. Heart-attacks? Shock? The stress of being in this situation? It killed them, whatever it was.

Metabot and Lorenz were modkilled.
Metabot was the passerby, town. He was NAIVE.
Lorenz was a cop, town. He was SANE.

7 players survive. But after the shotgun failed to go off when first called upon, who knows how it will work in future? Maybe asking the mGods would have helped previously? Not anymore.

Please do not start posting until Lataro starts Day 3 in his game. This will be soon.

by **weiyaoli** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:34 pm UTC

Not much time so this will be quick, I copped GoP and got scum.

Therefore I am either sane and GoP is scum or I am paranoid and my results are useless.

by **webby** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:58 pm UTC

I also copped GoP and got mafia. This makes me insane and means that GoP is town or godfather.

by **bantler** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:05 am UTC

I investigated Gopher as scum. Yet he's almost certainly innocent or the most conniving busser ever. I'm betting on my insanity. My spreadsheet is pointing hard at webby.

webby wrote:All else being equal, the best lynch is clearly GoP. If he's scum then it's great, while if he's town, then at least I get confirmed as town (as long as he's sane or insane). No other lynch gives us that much information. Having said that, I haven't been as convinced of his scumminess as others seem to be. We have three days left I think, so I'm not going to vote yet, I'll try to do a proper read through first.
...
I'm assuming no random cops here - I would speculate that there's either no random cops or there's three (ie one is sane, the rest are random). I still think the most likely scenario is one of each of the four usual sanities.

Waffling and no vote. He couldn’t save Greenlover without locking a tie, so I suspect he just abstained. I don’t like that winey bit about random role dispersion either.

I have to back-track on those Exorcist claims.

Vote: webby

by **bantler** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:08 am UTC

Especially because Exorcists are in the other game…

by **webby** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:54 am UTC

Unfortunately I managed to miss the deadline - it was in the morning in my timezone and I miscalculated exactly when it was. I'm going to wait for everyone to claim before responding to the rest of it, because I'm hoping the claims, especially GoP's, will clear things up.

by **Silknor** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 1:02 am UTC

I investigated GOP and got guilty. I could be paranoid, sane with him scum, or insane with him godfather.

I was not informed of any visit by a psych.

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