xkcd

by **Silknor** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 1:04 am UTC

Opps, scratch the insane with him godfather part. That does fit with a guilty result, but I forgot that FAOT was miller, so that can't be.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 2:19 am UTC

A couple of things so far: Wei & Silknor have claimed the same results. Also, Webby & Bantler have claimed insane, GoP as town, so same results as each other as well.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:14 am UTC

Wow, did we all agree that everyone would cop me?

Previous List:

Silknor investigated FAOT and got Guilty - Sane or Paranoid.
GoP investigated Webby - Unknown
Weiyaoli investigated FAOT and got Guilty - Sane or Paranoid.
Webby copped FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Greenlover copped FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Bantler coppy FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Lorenz is modkilled.

New List: (From my perspective)

Silknor - FAOT/guilty - GoP/guilty - Paranoid
Weiyaoli - FAOT/Guilty - GoP/guilty - Paranoid
Webby - FAOT/Town - GoP/guilty - Insane
Bantler - FAOT/Town - GoP/guilty - Insane

Greenlover - SCUM
Lorenz - SANE
GoP - NAIVE

I think it pretty much clears me, especially if it is 1 of each. So, we have 1 scum between Silknor and Weiyaoli, and 1 scum between Webby and Bantler. (I almost said 'Weeby again! Whoops!)

We can have 1 mislynch. After that, it will come down to 50/50. I guess it is up to myself, FAOT and mpolo to decide the first lynch. We get it right, and we win. Any cop is basically useless now, as we have them picked, so there is no way to distinguish between an insane cop and a scum acting like one. So I suppose we can focus on 1 pair today, and hopefully lynch the right one.

Oh, I copped FAOT, and got town; hence naive.

by **mpolo** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:30 am UTC

The only thing about the "one of each" at this point would be the fact that we have sanities on all roles. (Perhaps this was necessary because of the psychiatrists, I suppose, as a mafia psych who is also a rolecop for cops would be a bit much.) It's at least conceivable that roband passed out sanities to all at random, with 3 of each sanity.

It is still reasonably likely that there are in fact 4 different types of cops, just pointing out a reasonable possibility that there are not.

More later.

by **bantler** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:10 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:The only thing about the "one of each" at this point would be the fact that we have sanities on all roles. (Perhaps this was necessary because of the psychiatrists, I suppose, as a mafia psych who is also a rolecop for cops would be a bit much.) It's at least conceivable that roband passed out sanities to all at random, with 3 of each sanity.

It is still reasonably likely that there are in fact 4 different types of cops, just pointing out a reasonable possibility that there are not.

More later.

Conceivable but Inelegant.
There are 2 scum within the four claims and it looks like distribution is even. There’s enough meat in-thread to finish this meal.

by **weiyaoli** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:36 pm UTC

I think our main concern right now (since we've narrowed the scum down pretty much already) is the lynch bastardry that is unknown today. We've had common lynch and normal so reversed maybe?

To test:

Vote: BoomFrog

by **roband** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:39 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:I think our main concern right now (since we've narrowed the scum down pretty much already) is the lynch bastardry that is unknown today. We've had common lynch and normal so reversed maybe?

To test:

Vote: BoomFrog

My god, he's got it!

by **mpolo** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:13 pm UTC

What is a "reversed lynch"? The votes here count for there? I thought we had that on day 1, so it might be true today. Unfortunately, I don't see how we can test that. (Roband could theoretically keep posting our votals, but then at lynch, announce that the victim of the other lynch was lynched.)

Or maybe you meant something else by "reversed lynch"…

by **Lataro** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 9:49 pm UTC

You bums finally managed to work out a condition of learning how a day's lynch works.

D1, you were screwed.
D2, all you had to do was ask.
D3, all you had to do was guess right and a mod could tell you.
D4, GL with that.

by **bantler** » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:35 pm UTC

unvote: webby

Pending Bastardry: This needs more thought.

by **mpolo** » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:59 pm UTC

I am here, and reading along, and trying to figure out what we should do. As it's late and voting is extra fun at the moment, I'm going to wait to tomorrow to try to sort out the cop claims here.

by **weiyaoli** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:04 am UTC

Unvote

by **mpolo** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 11:59 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Previous List:

Silknor investigated FAOT and got Guilty - Sane or Paranoid.
GoP investigated Webby - Unknown
Weiyaoli investigated FAOT and got Guilty - Sane or Paranoid.
Webby copped FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Greenlover copped FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Bantler coppy FAOT and got Town - Insane or Naive.
Lorenz is modkilled.

New List: (From my perspective)

Silknor - FAOT/guilty - GoP/guilty - Paranoid
Weiyaoli - FAOT/Guilty - GoP/guilty - Paranoid
Webby - FAOT/Town - GoP/guilty - Insane
Bantler - FAOT/Town - GoP/guilty - Insane

Greenlover - SCUM
Lorenz - SANE
GoP - NAIVE

I think it pretty much clears me, especially if it is 1 of each. So, we have 1 scum between Silknor and Weiyaoli, and 1 scum between Webby and Bantler. (I almost said 'Weeby again! Whoops!)

Oh, I copped FAOT, and got town; hence naive.

At first I was a little at a loss as to why this clears GoP, but now I see that Webby and Bantler's results can only result from a random cop, and insane cop, or scum. And I believe random cops were ruled out earlier.

But what if GoP is the dirty cop??? Doesn't that mean that he'd come up town? Is there some reason why we think we can trust him?

Ah. Only two mafia left, hence they have to be where he said.

This is turning into a really useless post very quickly, but since I've wasted so much time on it, I have to post it.

I am tending to think bantler is town because of aggressiveness and activity, even though he grates on me a lot. Which means I am kind of wanting to vote for webby.

by **Silknor** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 11:59 pm UTC

The only thing that "clears" GOP is him saying so. It's true that if we make unwarranted assumptions about the distribution of sanities (Well, in some other game, which wasn't a bastard game, it worked like this!) then he's probably clear. I say probably because I haven't checked out all the possibilities, even within the framework of 1 naive, 1 sane, 1 insane, 1 paranoid. But why we should make the assumptions that probably clear him is beyond me. If the mods ruled out random cops, I missed it. But even if they did, that doesn't mean it's 1N 1S 1I 1P, which is the important part. I'm very uncomfortable with anyone hand-waving and pretending that proves their clear, as if they're hoping we'll miss the bad reasoning and just jump to the conclusion. It's a tactic favored by both scum and townies who aren't playing/thinking well though, so I couldn't vote on that alone.

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 10:46 am UTC

It is certainly true that we don't absolutely have to have one of each possible sanity among the cops. Bantler is the strongest voice for being certain of this, along with GoP, of course. Technically, we only know that there is likely only one sane cop (since that came from the role PM).

Silknor and Weiyaoli can be:
~~Sane~~, paranoid or scum [or random] (if GoP is scum) -- in case of scum they are potentially bussing at a moment where that doesn't seem advisable

or

Insane or scum [or random] (if GoP is town)

Can somebody scan back as to whether random sanities were ruled out by roband? I don't know if I'll have time in the near future…

The assumption that GoP is scum requires that we have two people with the same insanity for either paranoid or insane. The question is whether that is likely.

by **bantler** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 4:24 pm UTC

I don’t see or remember crazy-cop being ruled out.
The layout so far looks clean and even, so barring evidence to the contrary I’ll follow Occam's Razor for the best odds to win.

by **webby** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:28 am UTC

I've been neglecting this game a bit. I agree that we can't rule out cop sanities being allocated completely randomly as opposed to one of each, given that all the other roles had sanities as well (I'm guessing the reason the vanilla roles were given sanities was so that the psychologists didn't know whether they hit a cop or not).

However, even though we can't clear GoP, I do agree that the cop sanities that have come up do reduce his chance of being scum - most of the higher probability cases would have GoP as town.

I also just realised we can't vote Silknor given the way the voting works. So that's going to leave it down to bantler, me and weiyaoli.

Both weiyaoli and bantler have been pretty quiet (admittedly so have I) and given us very little to go off. On day 1, while on day 2 bantler was on the GoP lynch, while weiyaoli failed to vote. weiyaoli voted for GoP day 1, while bantler wasn't in the game at that point. Right now I'd go for weiyaoli. I have a bit of trouble picking weiyaoli in general, one thing I've noticed is that he generally tries to avoid voting when he's scum. That's a minor point, sure, given that he did vote day 1 but I don't have much to go on for either weiyaoli or bantler. More posts needed!

Future cop results are useless, I had a think and couldn't find any scenario where they would help.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:08 pm UTC

I noticed GoP voted GL yesterday but most likely a 'saving myself' vote so doesn't really go towards against his current towniness rating (or townie points as I like to call them). The stagnation in discussion isn't great in hunting scum but past the information we already have I don't see much more we can discuss. Still I know who I will be voting for today because he's been acting extremely scummy.

Vote: Bantler

And yes I know about the reversal.

@Webby: Future cop results from the insane cops (which we have two claimed) will help. Although It'll be quite easy for scum to give true results (knowing who is town and who is not town), it will give any town insane cops an indication of who is scum and who isn't. As I largely expected the cop results seem to be taking a lot of focus away from discussion. There's been plenty of talk about whether GoP is clear or not, distribution of cops etc but not about peoples reactions. On that note.

@Silknor: Who do you think is the most scummy player at the moment and why?

by **bantler** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:34 pm UTC

My trouble with weiyaoli is that his only content was a rush to test a theory.

weiyaoli wrote:I think our main concern right now (since we've narrowed the scum down pretty much already) is the lynch bastardry that is unknown today. We've had common lynch and normal so reversed maybe?
To test:
Vote: BoomFrog

The mafia are in the quad of lies with an apparent mechanic for uprooting them (unique sanities). This doesn’t call for whimsical tests. It calls for rope.

damn desk jockey...
vote: mpolo

by **Silknor** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:42 pm UTC

I was wavering, so I decided to look back at GOP's posts for the day. I found just one, the post where he waves his hands and poof he's proven town. I find that deeply troubling, it skips over everything that's required for the analysis to work. Town don't (or shouldn't) act like this. If you're going to claim something is proven, but it relies on assumptions, you make those clear so you don't mislead other townies. That's scummy, especially given that he waits till the end so he can pick the right result for him to "prove" he's town.

Vote: GOP

I have noticed Bantler is very aggressive (I think mpolo said this made him suspect bantler less, something I don't understand), but I don't really know bantler and I'm not sure if he's normally aggressive or if it's a scum thing. Still, I find it hard to believe it makes him more townie.

Edit: Ninja. I have no idea what bantler's last post is saying.

by **weiyaoli** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:45 pm UTC

Okay, right now we are at 5t/2s. With those numbers we can still lose if we lynch incorrectly today and tomorrow. I do think we still have 2 confirmed town alive though which is good for a potential LYLO situation tomorrow since we have a much smaller possible scumpool.

The reason I was more concerned with the lynch bastardry today is because I think with the reveal of today's lynch target's sanity, we can pretty much see if we have one of each sanity or not. (Obviously we wouldn't with scum but that's a almost sure win with 4t(1 confirmed so) and 1 scum) If we lynch incorrectly, then:

3t/2s (LYLO) which could be dangerous as we don't know the lynch mechanics for tomorrow.

But if the reveal shows either, one of insane/paranoid/naive (and we were expecting such a cop sanity) then we most likely have one of each sanity. If it disproves the theory then (e.g. I was lynched and I was actually sane) obviously we would gain some information.

The only thing is I'm not sure about is that we can't vote for silknor in this game and bf in the other game for example (the reason I picked him to vote was precisely that he was dead in this game but alive in the other). I guess it would definitely be better to actually know for sure we will get a lynch with the current mechanics. In which case, I'm not sure which one to think over bantler and webby (I think GoP is probably the naive cop until we get any information that will disprove our 1 of each theory).

by **bantler** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:45 pm UTC

Silknor wrote:I was wavering, so I decided to look back at GOP's posts for the day. I found just one, the post where he waves his hands and poof he's proven town. I find that deeply troubling, it skips over everything that's required for the analysis to work. Town don't (or shouldn't) act like this. If you're going to claim something is proven, but it relies on assumptions, you make those clear so you don't mislead other townies. That's scummy, especially given that he waits till the end so he can pick the right result for him to "prove" he's town.

Vote: GOP

There is no point in buying anything you manufacture because it's all skewed politically in a far off land.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:30 pm UTC

I made those assumptions clear. I was assuming 1 of each. That is pretty clear to me, as I am town, and I am Naive, and Lorenz is Sane, and the other 4 are either Paranoid or Insane.

Also, the fact that everyone who copped me got guilty, when the sane cop is already dead? It either means I'm town, or Godfather. With the way the results are, town looks a better bet.

And why would I push for the GL lynch? That would have been some epic bussing.

Vote: Silknor

Pretty obvious scum now.

by **bantler** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:55 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Vote: Silknor

Pretty obvious scum now.

Yup. We buried the scum yonder...
There is a REVERSAL today so please be careful. We need the full count.

by **mpolo** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:05 am UTC

There is also a certain fear that Silknor is unlynchable in this hour. (I agree 100% that he seems to be desperately trying to turn us away from the truth to get a couple more kills in. He would be my preferred lynch, actually.)

Which means that I think I would like to see webby lynched here in this thread.

I need to re-read in a certain less fun thread in order to decide whom to vote, however.

by **roband** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:19 pm UTC

Fun Votals for Fun Peoples

bantler 1 (FAOT)
mpolo 1(bantler)
GoP 1 (Silknor)
Silknor 1 (GoP)

Did that funless loser set a deadline?

by **bantler** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:19 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:There is also a certain fear that Silknor is unlynchable in this hour. (I agree 100% that he seems to be desperately trying to turn us away from the truth to get a couple more kills in. He would be my preferred lynch, actually.)

For obvious reasons I won't be interacting with your opinions concerning reverse votes...
But Silknor is clearly instigating in his ghostly presence. He goaded GoP into an OMGUS that may stick considering the impending Holiday and dead-line.

DON’T GET PLAYED, GOPHER

by **Gopher of Pern** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:25 pm UTC

Eh, fine

Unvote

Vote: Webby

by **bantler** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:59 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Eh, fine

Unvote

Vote: Webby

Webby is the 2nd Exorcist.
You don’t have to side with my vote (mpolo) but please vote with the majority against one of the three Original Scum: FAOT, GreenLover, Mpolo.

gobble gobble

by **bantler** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:00 pm UTC

edit: scratch greenlover...he's dead!

by **mpolo** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:27 pm UTC

I guess that makes it pretty obvious who I have to vote for:

Vote: ForAllOfThis

by **ForAllOfThis** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:52 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: Webby

Something tells me bantler may have broke the rules, with regards to talking about the unfun game (on several occassions now).

by **roband** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 5:05 pm UTC

bantler, you're toeing the fun line.

I don't know what this imaginary game you keep mentioning is, or why you want to talk about exorcists, this isn't a pseudo-science discussion group.

Get it together and follow the rules or be modkilled.

by **weiyaoli** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 6:49 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I guess that makes it pretty obvious who I have to vote for:

Vote: ForAllOfThis

Yeah, why have you just followed along with bantler? I'm pretty sure you are scum now. I'm not too sure what is going on bantler/webby/faot right now though. Why did you vote for webby GoP?

by **Gopher of Pern** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:24 pm UTC

I voted for Webby, because I find him to be scummier than bantler. It's a toss up between those two. Its also a toss up between yourself and Silknor, and I'm pretty sure Silknor is scum out of the 2 of you, so I'd be willing to vote for Silknor as well. But I think it's more likely to get Webby lynched.

by **mpolo** » Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:37 pm UTC

There are factors involved with my vote that I am not at liberty to speak about, especially after a certain moose was warned about doing so. However, based on what we know of the lynch mechanic for today, the threats to the town seem to be Greenlover and ForAllOfThis (I'm not sure why he thinks that I am a threat). However, of those two, only one can be voted for, because the other is, in fact, dead. Which means that bantler was pretty silly to suggest voting for him. So I voted for ForAllOfThis.

Why would I vote for the confirmed miller, you ask? Because I have read the posts of our glorious mod. (I obviously ignored the explanatory post by the psychotic clown, but based on what roband has posted, voting for ForAllOfThis seems to be a Good Thing.)

by **webby** » Fri Nov 25, 2011 2:41 am UTC

First things first, Vote: FAOT

I don't really understand why people think I'm scum. I guess I haven't been posting as much as usual, but that goes for all my games at the moment. The problem is that bantler and weiyaoli haven't really given us much to go off and people seem to think we can't lynch Silknor. I would guess that bantler and Silknor are the remaining scum.

Just so people know, I'm going away for the weekend (leaving in a couple of hours). I should have internet on my phone according to the coverage map, but I'm telling you just in case. Will be back on Tuesday my time, which is Monday for most of you.

by **webby** » Fri Nov 25, 2011 2:44 am UTC

EBWOP - apparently I fail at pressing the enter key:

Vote: FAOT

by **bantler** » Fri Nov 25, 2011 5:10 pm UTC

We must stand united.

Can the host post the Votals and End Time?

Thanks

by **ForAllOfThis** » Fri Nov 25, 2011 9:37 pm UTC

I have a gut feeling that those voting for me are our scum. I'm confirmed town, why are you voting for me?

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