xkcd

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:38 am UTC

Confirmation from the mod, I wasn't roleblocked last night.

However, I still think 2 roleblocks is unlikely.

by **webby** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:58 am UTC

Roband, what do you mean about not being roleblocked? Can you be specific about what happened here and why you thought you were roleblocked?

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:11 am UTC

I've thought that the number of roleblocks/protections going around was a lot for a small game (unless scum were super strong, which we've seen no particular signs of). However, two might be reasonable, if one is scum and one is town. That would mean that FAOT is at least 50% likely to be scum, though. I would like to hear more from roband's revelation there.

Is there a time limit on this day?

by **Silknor** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:16 am UTC

Deadline for Day 3 is 11am PST Thursday, just under 84 hours.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:12 am UTC

webby wrote:Roband, what do you mean about not being roleblocked? Can you be specific about what happened here and why you thought you were roleblocked?

I was expecting something to happen. It didn't - so I suspected being roleblocked.
Speaking to the mods, there is another reason the thing didn't happen.

So, the below is where I am, at the moment. AS and Mav are interchangeable.

SCUM
FAOT
mpolo

AS
Mav

webby
TOWN

So then guys, I wanna see your lists as well. Show me who you think is scummiest. Lurking here will be an IMMEDIATE indicator to me that you're putting off talking about things.
Also, FAOT - I want to see you vote webby immediately, please.

by **webby** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:32 am UTC

Roband, you don't have to claim what your action was, but can you claim who you targetted last night and (if it doesn't give away too much) why? I have some information about your powers and I want to see if things check out.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:35 am UTC

Sure. I targeted DBC. I expected to see a result from this, regardless of him dying. But I didn't.

The mod then explained that the reason I didn't get a result was because he died.

What you got on me?

by **webby** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:36 am UTC

I've got that you targetted DBC last night.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:39 am UTC

Ta-da!

Yeah, I wasn't sure if I believed the mason claim (it'd have been a nice way for the two of you to try and clear yourselves, right?) but now he's dead, I trust you.

What are your thoughts on who to lynch at the moment?

by **webby** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:42 am UTC

My first thought was obviously you because you targetted the player who turned up dead. Another option is Mav - they'd probably still be my first two options, I didn't really expect you to necessarily fall for the trap if you were scum anyway. I'll think about this more in the morning though.

For the record, FAOT was telling the truth that he targetted Mav on night 1.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:47 am UTC

Well, at this point, it doesn't really matter. I am the reason for the oracle results. In addition to praying in the church, the gods speak to me.
Putting it out there, because we NEED to lynch correctly today, it doesn't matter if I'm roleblocked in future nights really.

Unvote

FAOT telling the truth about that gives me a little more hope in him somewhat. So now I want to hear from Mav and AS.

Who do you guys (girls) want to lynch today?

by **ForAllOfThis** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:25 pm UTC

Remember, mine is a roleblock and a medic although I see it as being versatile many would consider it a nerfed roleblock or a nerfed medic, as the other effect either blocks town if I'm a medic or protects scum if I'm roleblocking. Then on top of that I don't know if I roleblocked a killer or saved the target..

I had my doubts about roband but the oracle claim is unliklely to be counterclaimed (and I have yet to see a scum oracle, I guess it's a possibility but seems unlikely). There does seem to be quite a few roleblocks flying around though, I expect some of them must have been one-shot. As roband rightly predicted..

Vote: Webby

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:58 pm UTC

Actually, I want Mav to claim. Fully.

Because we know she has an action. She was roleblocked by FAOT on N1.

Although, the main reason I want Mav to claim is because I'm starting to trust FAOT. If I trust FAOT, then Mav, AS and mpolo are scum.

Are we (town) at MYLO?

by **Mavketl** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:52 pm UTC

Sorry about the absence at the end of D2 and start of D3.

I would rather not claim fully, but I will claim some things to clear up this rolebock-y mess.

FAOT roleblocked (and protected) me last night. I was still able to use my PM ability, which he knew because I targeted him. Thus, I was not roleblocked, which means that FAOT got roleblocked.

roband: why do you assume there must be an SK? this post of yours is really weird. I had been planning on accusing you of being the SK before your recent claims, that's how weird I thought it was. I believe you now, but the question still remains... why would there be an SK? We haven't seen a lot of NKs. I agree that there is likely an anti-town independent, but I'm not convinced about the SK. It could be, with the crazy amount of protection we have, but we don't know.

I'll post analysis/scum list stuff later, wanted to get this out first.

Spoiler:

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:02 pm UTC

Purely based on the talk of bodies in the flavour. It strikes me that 2 kills were expected on N1.

Mavketl wrote:I was still able to use my PM ability

What PM ability? Or is that the bit you don't want to go into?

So we had masons, of DBC and webby. And you also claim to be able to PM someone? Anyone? I think I want to hear more about this.

by **Mavketl** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:10 pm UTC

roband wrote:Purely based on the talk of bodies in the flavour. It strikes me that 2 kills were expected on N1.

That's a decent theory, but I think we should keep in mind that it's just that - a theory.

I have an array of one-shot abilities, of which I get one at my disposal each day. D2 was a PM ability and I chose to target FAOT - as for the "you claim?!" tone of that post, it's easily verifiable by him.

In a way, it's unfortunate that I got roleblocked N1, I had something better than one-day PM chat (then again, I might be dead if FAOT hadn't targeted me that night, so I'm not entirely unhappy with that choice).

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:12 pm UTC

Why did you choose FAOT?

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:18 pm UTC

Which oracle results are you saying apply to you? I can't find what you're talking about.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:20 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Which oracle results are you saying apply to you? I can't find what you're talking about.

No, I'm responsible for the oracle result.
As in, I choose a player to target, and we get an oracle result on them.

by **Mavketl** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:24 pm UTC

[quote="roband']Why did you choose FAOT?[/quote]Because we'd have something to talk about, and I was very ambivalent towards him. On the one hand, I thought he had been acting quite townie. On the other, he had claimed a jailkeeper, which is an excellent falseclaim for a scum roleblocker (you roleblock someone and NK someone else, then declare that you protected your RB target), so I wanted a chance to prod him and see how he would respond.

He has been very open about everything and overall his response to the roleblocking debacle seems incredibly townie. Not holding back, freely explaining his motivations for his actions and bringing the roleblock thing to the thread as soon as he figured out what was going on. It confirmed by earlier reading of him as rather townie.

Which presents me with a problem: there are three people in this game I kind of trust. That leaves only two for non-town (AS and mpolo) and that is likely not enough.

That is also why I keep groping for an alternative to the SK, if one of them is some sort of neutral or not really harmful independent it would make more sense to me. Regardless of which of the 'trustees' I'm wrong on, though, I'm pretty sure I don't trust mpolo and AS. So I'll be voting for one of them, unless something comes up.

by **Mavketl** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:25 pm UTC

EBWOP: grr quotefail >.>

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:26 pm UTC

Right, you're seeming more and more townie to me as well, I guess.

AS - I'd love to hear from you on all this.
mpolo - I don't really know what I want from you. You're scummy due to the others looking so good, in my eyes. Anything you can say to change my mind?

by **Silknor** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:44 pm UTC

roband wrote:Are we (town) at MYLO?

It is not presently guaranteed that any townies will be alive on day 4. It is not MYLO or LYLO.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:46 pm UTC

Lovely. Let's lynch someone.

Vote mpolo

by **Mavketl** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:47 pm UTC

Looking back through this game, mpolo has been considered fringe-scummy pretty much all game.

Spoiler:

Basically, he's been hanging by a thread all game and posted just enough to avoid the lynch every day. Why is it that you (roband) don't find him scummy in his own right?

Ninja'd: okay, apparently you do.

Vote: mpolo

(I could be convinced to switch to AS if someone has good reasons.)

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:54 pm UTC

Tbh Mav, I was going to give exactly the same reasoning you just did. But let's just get down to it. No point messing around, right?

by **Mavketl** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:55 pm UTC

roband wrote: But let's just get down to it.

Let's get to it

by **ForAllOfThis** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 6:44 pm UTC

I can confirm that Me and Mav have daychat, and that his how I know I was roleblocked last night. I picked Mav again to see if she controlled a kill or not. Although as with learning about any role, it doesn't confirm or refute her townieness (although from discussion, I am leaning townie)

The discussion me and Mav are having reflects a lot of what has been said in thread. I can make longer more elaborate posts to explain what I'm thinking, which is also nice. I'm in no rush to put mpolo closer to a lynch just yet, I'd like to see what he (and AS) have to say first.

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:05 pm UTC

I am really not sure what to say at this juncture. I am seen as scummy because others are less scummy. That doesn't give me a lot to work with here. And I think a lot of the scumminess is simply not being able to boldly toss votes around, but having to wait until sureness or the deadline get us there.

The "no guarantee of living townies on day 4" has me wondering if we are in a situation where there is only one or two scum, but if we don't get him/her by day 4, we lose due to the ice age. Either that, or there are a whole lot of kills coming up for N3.

roband has looked good the whole game, and with his claim, seems certainly townie.
FAOT has gone up and down, but has recently been very open about everything. Seems townie.
webby is pretty much confirmed town.
Mavketl is probably the weakest link in the "probably town" group. But I don't have much of an argument against her. Just that she is playing like she is hiding something. But in a seemingly townie way.

Which leaves AS, whose towniness I was pretty convinced of early on. Of course, she has not been posting near as much lately. By elimination, she has to be the scum.

Which means that I probably ought to go ahead and vote, but that would have the side effect of making posting almost superfluous for me (for not being able to change the vote), which would not be the way to prove myself to anyone else.

by **roband** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:16 pm UTC

I do not like the idea of you saying there is only 1 scum. It feels heavily like you're trying to deceive us.

by **mpolo** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:04 pm UTC

Maybe there are more than one scum -- I'm just trying to make sense of the mod's statement there. It's a no-bastardry situation, so the statement that it is possible that no town will survive to day 4 must be true. At worst we would think three scum in a game of this size. If we mislynch, there would be three scum left, and two town... In that case, two night-kills would eliminate town as promised (threatened). So its definitely a possibility. But then we should have more leads as well.

I might as well reveal the rest of my role. I don't see a whole lot of way to use it effectively anyway.

Because I am relentless, if my lynch target is not lynched, I inject him with my platypus venom. This is a fairly weak venom, which means that its effect is also minimal. It has two effects:

1) It negates a source of protection for that person in the night, if the person were for some reason protected.
2) If the same person is targeted twice in the course of the game, they will die.

So, it's kind of a poisoner role, with it being semi-unblockable, but with an annoying connection to the lynch mechanic that makes it unlikely that I will ever actually target anybody. I suppose that if someone had protected DBC, I would have to feel guilty about his having been killed, as my poison would have enabled the kill to hit him. This seems not to be the case, though.

Temptation to vote for AS is very strong. Must resist.

by **AngrySquirrel** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:12 pm UTC

Sorry for being so absent in this game guys, I'll try to change that from now on. Not that it matters, we're doomed anyway. That evil penguin will have our guts for supper and there's nothing we can do about it

So yea, reading through the game. From what I can tell Webby is more or less confirmed as a mason buddy of DBC. There's also heavy indications of FOAT being town and I can usually tell when roband is scum quite fast. Which leaves us with me, mavketl and mpolo as possible scum. And seeing as I am me, and know where I stand, that leaves me with mavketl and mpolo.

In list form (as requested) ordered from towniest on top to scummiest on bottom:
Webby
Roband
FOAT
mavketl
mpolo

I haven't quite decided on who I feel are most suspicious of mavketl and mpolo yet. Both have some strangeness to their claims and actions and both are (from a meta-perspective) quite good at seeming neutral.

I'll bake some muffins and read through and put in a vote when I've had some time to think about things. Not that it matters. We doomed anyway. I should just lie down and die. Just stop it all. There's no point. The glacier...the evil penguin...everyone leaving us...it's just all... too much. So hopeless. Doomed. Doooomed.

by **AngrySquirrel** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 2:02 am UTC

Alright. Muffins are made.

First a few posts I'd like to comment on.

roband wrote:So you didn't jail anyone, because you were blocked.
Only one kill happened, because (I assume) the other was blocked.
However, unless there has been a mod error,

and I assume that's not the case?

I was ALSO roleblocked last night...

With 7 players active last night, 1 of whom is me (and I know I don't have a roleblock power) what are the odds of 3 out of the remaining 6 having roleblock powers?

I call bullshit.

Vote FAOT

This seems very sensible. There seems to be a lot of blocks flying around, I would probably be voting for FAOT based on this reasoning had not mavketl been confirming their powers in the later posts.

roband wrote:Confirmation from the mod, I wasn't roleblocked last night.

However, I still think 2 roleblocks is unlikely.

Is the "confirmation from the mod" you refer to in this post based on Silknor's post or based on a PM from the mod?
(Just want some clarification).

Then to the game of eliminitation.

There are 6 players left. Webby is confirmed town in my book and I have faith that roband is town too. FAOT also scores pretty high on my townie list (mainly cause of mavketl though, it might be good to remember that). But there were originally 9 players in this game and I don't believe this would be a game with less than 2 scum. So that pretty much seals the deal for me, either I'm misjudging people something horrible or both Mavketl and mpolo are scum. I am however aware that this is mylo/lylo so I'll sleep on this, so all can get their posts in and to see if I can think of any mistakes in my reasoning, before I vote.

by **Silknor** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:11 am UTC

Votals:

Webby (1): FAOT
Mpolo (2): Roband, Mavketl

4 to lynch. 64 hours remain.

by **webby** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:53 am UTC

roband - still not 100% sure that being the oracle makes you town, but I reckon it's more likely than not. Of course it's possible that you have some sort of flavour ability + were able to cop mpolo's animal, but I don't think that's the most likely explanation. I initially thought you were serial killer, but I don't think an oracle serial killer is that likely.

If I didn't know better, I would have thought your 'let's lynch someone' and Mav's quick agreement meant that you two were scum who had just found out town no longer has a majority.

I'm trying to make sense of all the connections here - the strongest one by far is roband with Mav and I have no idea what to make of that.

I'm going to guess that mpolo is either town or a serial killer, so I'm not going to be voting for him. Right now I'd probably vote for Mav, with AS being my second choice. Part of this is voting patterns - Mav avoided the Lataro lynch day 1, then was on a lynch of town day 2. Part of it is her claim day 2 about knowing she was roleblocked - town shouldn't have done that. Part of that is just a feeling about the way she's playing. I get that she's been busy/not able to post so much recently, but even when she has posted it hasn't seemed particularly useful/helpful.

So yeah, at this stage I would go with lynching Mav.

by **roband** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:17 am UTC

AngrySquirrel wrote:
roband wrote:Confirmation from the mod, I wasn't roleblocked last night.

However, I still think 2 roleblocks is unlikely.

Is the "confirmation from the mod" you refer to in this post based on Silknor's post or based on a PM from the mod?
(Just want some clarification).

A PM from the mod confirmed it for me.

webby wrote:roband - still not 100% sure that being the oracle makes you town, but I reckon it's more likely than not. Of course it's possible that you have some sort of flavour ability + were able to cop mpolo's animal, but I don't think that's the most likely explanation. I initially thought you were serial killer, but I don't think an oracle serial killer is that likely. If I didn't know better, I would have thought your 'let's lynch someone' and Mav's quick agreement meant that you two were scum who had just found out town no longer has a majority.

The reason I wanted to just get on with it is that I am incredibly confident that mpolo must be scum. I also think that AS is scum. For me, Mav is a fringe/if-there-are-three-scum-it's-her kinda thing at the moment.

You're right that looking for links is important, as we do need to lynch a member of the scum team (if, in fact, there is a baddie who isn't part of that team). I'll look back to see if I can find anything.

by **Mavketl** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:07 am UTC

webby wrote:roband - still not 100% sure that being the oracle makes you town, but I reckon it's more likely than not. Of course it's possible that you have some sort of flavour ability + were able to cop mpolo's animal, but I don't think that's the most likely explanation. I initially thought you were serial killer, but I don't think an oracle serial killer is that likely. If I didn't know better, I would have thought your 'let's lynch someone' and Mav's quick agreement meant that you two were scum who had just found out town no longer has a majority.

Technically, it was the other way around. I had previously committed to lynching either one of mpolo and AS, roband chose mpolo, so I put down my vote as I had pledged.

webby wrote:Right now I'd probably vote for Mav, with AS being my second choice. Part of this is voting patterns - Mav avoided the Lataro lynch day 1, then was on a lynch of town day 2.

How does both being on a town lynch and not being on a town lynch make me scummy? Do you think I had bad reasons to vote like I did?

webby wrote:Part of it is her claim day 2 about knowing she was roleblocked - town shouldn't have done that.

Why not? There are no vanilla roles in a Zoo game, the mere fact that I have an ability is not even a claim. Everyone has an ability. I felt it was a good idea to confirm FAOT's claim, since it cost me exactly nothing.

I don't really know how to respond to that last point.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:44 pm UTC

webby wrote:I initially thought you were serial killer, but I don't think an oracle serial killer is that likely.

Oddly enough I had the exact same thought. Even mentioned it to Mav in mason chat before reading the oracle claim. My reasoning was that the NK immunity feels like a bluff, and there are only a handful of roles that fit with a NK immunity bluff - SK, Survivor & possibly a power role gambit (although seems less likely).

Still, right now I'm leaning towards AS/Mpolo lynch. Won't be placing a vote down on either yet and using up my next 48 hours on roband as it seems unlikely a bandwagon will form on him.

Unvote
Vote: Roband

by **roband** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:47 pm UTC

Woah, hold on now, when is deadline?

I don't want scum hammering me!

There's not much more than 48 hours left before the end of day, you can afford to vote for one slightly scummy person now, and a very scummy person later. There is NO need to be voting people who you think are town, at this point.

If scum have daychat, they can arrange to hammer me, and probably win the game.

Unvote dude, seriously.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:57 pm UTC

By your logic, they could have done the same with webby. And you suggested that I voted for Webby at the start of the day. You have to remember I can't backtrack on my votes so even slightly voting for someone scummy doesn't give me the option to change my mind come end of day. Still it your point is something I have been growingly concerned about so I'll do the next best thing.

Unvote
Vote: NL

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