Zoo Mafia 3: End

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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:59 pm UTC

Thank you. Yes, but anyone voting webby would immediately be voted for.

Webby is confirmed town. I never have been.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby mpolo » Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:05 pm UTC

AS and Mav keep making me vacillate between them (i.e. when AS posts, it is obviously Mav who is scum; when Mav posts, it is obviously AS), so that I have no idea where to place my vote.

I have something more to say, but I just realized that I have class in 5 minutes…
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby mpolo » Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:33 am UTC

O.K. I have essentially lost twenty dollars and my self respect at this point, and would rather that scum lost with me rather than town, so I guess I have to be completely honest here.

As I said, if the person I vote does not get lynched, I inject venom into him and he dies. (Unless otherwise protected.) If I vote with the majority, I get to pick my own victim.

If you all want, I can vote for one of AS or Mav and you all can vote for the other, in the hopes that that catches the other scum for you.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:10 am UTC

You're claiming SK?

Unvote

Right, so AS and Mav? webby, what are your thoughts on FAOT, is he clear due to his claim?
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby webby » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:08 pm UTC

I don't know whether I trust mpolo's claim or not, because he could be scum with the knowledge that Mav and AS are town (or at least not on his team). However, that would mean that roband and FAOT are the other two scum, which isn't out of the question, but unlikely. Also with only three townies, we need help from an anti-town player to lynch anyone, so I guess we just have to hope he's telling the truth. mpolo, can you be a bit clearer about your role? Are you a lyncher for me or something? Or are you a serial killer?

FAOT is by no means clear (neither are you roband), but I still think the order from most to least scummy if we exclude mpolo is Mav, AS, FAOT, roband.

I'm not able to vote yet, but when we can I reckon we vote for Mav and mpolo can vote for AS.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Mavketl » Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:01 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:O.K. I have essentially lost twenty dollars and my self respect at this point, and would rather that scum lost with me rather than town, so I guess I have to be completely honest here.

As I said, if the person I vote does not get lynched, I inject venom into him and he dies. (Unless otherwise protected.)
This is not what you claimed before, so you can leave out the "as I said". Anyway, this claim might be true.

I don't trust mpolo at all (I don't think he would offer himself up like that if it didn't give him a shot at winning), but we could consider leaving him alive for another night. An overview of the risks:
1) He lied about his vote restriction and he'll change his vote right before the deadline - unlikely.
2) He lied about his ability and he can freely choose a target at night - possible and a big risk for town.
3) He lied about his alignment and he's a member of the scum team with those or similar powers - possible and a big risk for town.
4) Any combination of the above.

IF he will indeed kill who we tell him to and he didn't lie about anything explicitly or by omission, it could be a good thing for town to go along with his scheme for today if we actually hit two scum.

HOWEVER.

I am not scum.

webby wrote:I don't know whether I trust mpolo's claim or not, because he could be scum with the knowledge that Mav and AS are town (or at least not on his team). However, that would mean that roband and FAOT are the other two scum, which isn't out of the question, but unlikely.
I don't understand why it's [Mav and AS] or [roband and FAOT] - what are you basing this on? Mpolo doesn't know who is scum, he just offered to help kill the two people who are currently most named as scum so save his own hide. There is (thank god) nothing that binds me to AS, and if we play it like he suggested we'll arrive at D4 with 2 town, 1 sk, 1 scum. And that's if he does exactly what he's told, and we ignore any random factors. That's not good.
I think everyone agrees that webby is town (lol, anyone wanna deny that? :P) and AS is very likely scum. That leaves one out of FAOT, roband and myself for third anti-town player. I'll be posting later with some attempts to find connections between players that could help us out here.

IF you guys want to go along with this we need to have more of a discussion and find the two anti-town players who are not mpolo and get it right. It's not going to work this way.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:13 pm UTC

If we're at 3-2-1 as we seem to be, lynching the SK today and the mafia NK going through leaves us at 2-2 tomorrow and town lose.

If we lynch scum, leaving the SK and mafia NK, tomorrow we're left at 1-1-1 and we lose.

If we lynch mpolo and FAOT (if he is town) jails the correct scum, we will be at 3-2 tomorrow.
If we lynch someone other than mpolo (assuming we get the right person, who is one of the scum) and FAOT (if he is town) jails the correct person, we will be at 2-1-1 tomorrow.

I think lynching mpolo tonight is probably preferable. I really don't know. I probably missed something.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Mavketl » Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:18 pm UTC

We don't depend on FAOT jailing the correct scum - he could also jail (and therefore doctor) someone he thinks is town. Ehm. If FAOT is town >.>

Clearly he shouldn't state his target in public, but I just wanted to point out there is some hope there.

Also we're still missing an unclaimed roleblock (why did FAOT fail to RB me in N2) or similar ability that either does not exist and FAOT is lying, or it exists and it can help us (or it exists and is scum >.>). And then there's a wildcard with my ability, which could turn out to be something useful (or not >.>).

Either way, if we lynch scum then we NEED the SK to kill the other scum or we'll have two 'hostile' NKs and town loses for sure. We need to eliminate one NK, either the SK or both scum.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby webby » Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:31 pm UTC

roband wrote:If we're at 3-2-1 as we seem to be, lynching the SK today and the mafia NK going through leaves us at 2-2 tomorrow and town lose.

If we lynch scum, leaving the SK and mafia NK, tomorrow we're left at 1-1-1 and we lose.

If we lynch mpolo and FAOT (if he is town) jails the correct scum, we will be at 3-2 tomorrow.
If we lynch someone other than mpolo (assuming we get the right person, who is one of the scum) and FAOT (if he is town) jails the correct person, we will be at 2-1-1 tomorrow.

I think lynching mpolo tonight is probably preferable. I really don't know. I probably missed something.


Best I think is to tell mpolo who he has to vote for and lynch him if he doesn't do it. If he's telling the truth about that part of his role, then we can basically use him as a vig tonight. The big if is whether he's telling the truth about his role. That way, we have a chance to kill two scum for the loss of only one town.

I don't think it's necessarily roband + FAOT vs AS + Mav, I just think that obviously FAOT + Mav isn't a scumteam and roband is probably not scum because of the oracle. That leaves AS + Mav or AS + FAOT. That would suggest I should vote AngrySquirrel. The only thing holding me back from that is the possibility that roband and Mav are scum together - if not for the oracle thing I would be confident that they were the two scum.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby mpolo » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:20 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:
mpolo wrote:O.K. I have essentially lost twenty dollars and my self respect at this point, and would rather that scum lost with me rather than town, so I guess I have to be completely honest here.

As I said, if the person I vote does not get lynched, I inject venom into him and he dies. (Unless otherwise protected.)
This is not what you claimed before, so you can leave out the "as I said". Anyway, this claim might be true.



Sorry, I was writing too quickly. You all understood what I meant. I had given a mutated version of my power before, but with an awful lot of truth in it, and now I have given you everything.

It is pretty clear that I was going to be lynched the way things are going, which for a serial killer means loss of the game. I might as well do something constructive. If you want to make sure that I won't change something at the last minute, tell me who to vote for. I can lock it in at any moment, I just can't change it afterwards.

Obviously, I can see much more clearly than you can what my restrictions are and how those worked out in the game. But here's everything: On day one, I voted Lataro. Since he was lynched, I tried to kill roband in the night. Roband survived. (Obviously, I wasn't going to volunteer that information back on D2.)

Yesterday, my vote stayed on DBC while Misnomer was lynched, and as a result, I had no choice about my target. No one protected him, and therefore he died.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:27 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Obviously, I can see much more clearly than you can what my restrictions are and how those worked out in the game. But here's everything: On day one, I voted Lataro. Since he was lynched, I tried to kill roband in the night. Roband survived. (Obviously, I wasn't going to volunteer that information back on D2.)


Yay. At least my claim was justified :D

Ok, mpolo - wait for webby to confirm this, but I want to you be voting for AS. We lynch you, you die, AS dies.
FAOT does his thang. We all survive night and go on to win the game. Right? Right?

Mav, if you get anything useful, you should obviously use to to help us too. But either you or FAOT are scum and one of you is going to fuck us over, I guess :p

I'm ready when anyone else is. Deadline is in < 3 hours.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:44 pm UTC

Wait, no. < 1day and 3hours. Whoops! :D
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby mpolo » Wed Nov 23, 2011 5:48 pm UTC

If you lynch me, obviously AS doesn't die, because I am not alive to inject the poison.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Silknor » Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:10 pm UTC

Votals:
Mpolo (1): Mavketl
No Lynch (1): FAOT

4 to lynch. 25 hours remain.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:33 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:If you lynch me, obviously AS doesn't die, because I am not alive to inject the poison.

Oh yeah, shit. Lol. Well.. we have to lynch you today man. There's no reason for you to help town tonight.

Assuming we don't lynch town today (either we lynch mpolo, or can guarantee hitting scum) - we still need FAOT to be town and get lucky tonight, OR hope that Mav gets a decent power that's useful for town.

If scum have any sense, and have the roleblock that we suspect they do, they'll roleblock FAOT (Oh me yarm, scum tactics, secret messages, ROBANDISINSTASCUM - shut up, it's obvious) and we're suddenly relying on Mav being town and getting lucky enough to get a power to help us AND be lucky in using it on the right person.

If FAOT is town, scum will block him. Mav's power won't matter, as she is scum.
If Mav is town, scum will block her. FAOT's power won't matter as he is scum.

We need to get lucky, even if we lynch guaranteed scum.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby ForAllOfThis » Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:38 pm UTC

I wonder if scum and mpolo both targetted DBC yesterday. I suppose its possible, it would also explain the obscene amount of roleblocks (and I'm surprised we didn't think of it first). Ideally we need to hit the scum roleblocker, or making plans that involve me blocking or protecting will be fairly useless because scum will see it coming a mile away.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Mavketl » Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:51 pm UTC

roband wrote:If scum have any sense, and have the roleblock that we suspect they do, they'll roleblock FAOT (Gee Willikers, scum tactics, secret messages, ROBANDISINSTASCUM - shut up, it's obvious) and we're suddenly relying on Mav being town and getting lucky enough to get a power to help us AND be lucky in using it on the right person.
What the hell, roband?

If FAOT gets roleblocked by scum, I'm fairly sure that he would be town. At which point, from a townie-roband perspective, you're not "relying on Mav being town". You should know for sure that Mav is not town.

FAOT wrote:I wonder if scum and mpolo both targetted DBC yesterday.
Isn't that pretty much the only explanation, except for someone being stupid enough to target roband after he said he's NK-immune?
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:10 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:If FAOT gets roleblocked by scum, I'm fairly sure that he would be town. At which point, from a townie-roband perspective, you're not "relying on Mav being town". You should know for sure that Mav is not town.


Yep, I musta gotten confused. The next two lines are the important ones in that post. They clarify what you questioned. And the fact you questioned them, and missed the clarification is unusual.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Mavketl » Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:23 pm UTC

I didn't miss the clarification, I thought it was relevant to point out that you made an argument that makes no sense if you are town. We are still looking for scum tells, no?
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby ForAllOfThis » Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:48 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:Isn't that pretty much the only explanation, except for someone being stupid enough to target roband after he said he's NK-immune?


DBC could have protected a kill as well. Given I was roleblocked last night its unlikely he was, it could be pretty crucial knowing who DBC protected last night. Webby, did DBC tell you in mason chat? If it was you then its not a lot of help, but if it was another person then it might be.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Wed Nov 23, 2011 8:10 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:I didn't miss the clarification, I thought it was relevant to point out that you made an argument that makes no sense if you are town. We are still looking for scum tells, no?


Fair enough.

ForAllOfThis wrote:
Mavketl wrote:Isn't that pretty much the only explanation, except for someone being stupid enough to target roband after he said he's NK-immune?


DBC could have protected a kill as well. Given I was roleblocked last night its unlikely he was, it could be pretty crucial knowing who DBC protected last night. Webby, did DBC tell you in mason chat? If it was you then its not a lot of help, but if it was another person then it might be.


This could be the post that rightly or wrongly almost confirms you as town, in my mind...

webby, care to share?

Seriously, I doubt scum would have bought that up. If we lose now because FAOT fooled me with this, I'd tip my hat to him.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby webby » Wed Nov 23, 2011 9:10 pm UTC

I would have thought that was pretty obvious - he protected me both nights. Scum probably tried to kill either me or DBC.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby mpolo » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:26 pm UTC

roband wrote:Oh yeah, shit. Lol. Well.. we have to lynch you today man. There's no reason for you to help town tonight.


If FAOT is town, scum will block him. Mav's power won't matter, as she is scum.
If Mav is town, scum will block her. FAOT's power won't matter as he is scum.

We need to get lucky, even if we lynch guaranteed scum.


Look. Whatever you want to do. I'm giving you the chance to essentially have two lynches. (Assuming the town roleblocker blocks the scum roleblocker so as to prevent him/her from blocking me.) If you don't want to have two lynches, you don't have to take them, obviously. With Thanksgiving, I don't know that I will be on very much -- I'm cooking for like 50 people… My pie crusts decided to slip down the sides of my pans, so we're going to have a kind of pumpkin custard sitting on a crust that is a little thicker on the edges. Just waiting for the baking to finish so I can go to bed now…
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:57 am UTC

mpolo wrote:My pie crusts decided to slip down the sides of my pans, so we're going to have a kind of pumpkin custard sitting on a crust that is a little thicker on the edges. Just waiting for the baking to finish so I can go to bed now…

I seriously love pumpkin custard on Thanksgiving. I started to not bother putting in a crust it just gets in the way of the deliciousness.

Wait, what's this thread about again?
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Silknor » Thu Nov 24, 2011 6:25 am UTC

Votals:
Mpolo (1): Mavketl
No Lynch (1): FAOT

4 to lynch. 13 hours remain.

Remember you can submit night actions early and conditional on who gets lynched.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby webby » Thu Nov 24, 2011 6:31 am UTC

Ok, if Mav is scum, which I think is quite likely as i'm feeling better about FAOT, she's probably the more dangerous one (if she's telling the truth about getting one shot powers - ie she could get a kill or something). So let's lynch her and have mpolo vote for AS?

I need more people to vote before i'm able to, part of being cowardly.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby ForAllOfThis » Thu Nov 24, 2011 7:40 am UTC

Seems like our best chance.

Unvote
Vote: Mavketl
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:15 am UTC

Alright, let's do this. I'll vote for Mav when mpolo votes for AS.

Good luck with your baking, fella.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby mpolo » Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:51 am UTC

Vote: AngrySquirrel

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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:54 am UTC

Thanks dude.

Vote: Mav
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby AngrySquirrel » Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:41 am UTC

Vote: AngrySquirrel

Better you kill me than the evil penguin. That devilish fellow is not going to let me go quite as painlessly. YOU'RE NOT GETTING ME PENGUIN! YOU HEAR THAT! Doom...so doomed...

Btw. I'm a listener. I listened to DBC day 1, learning that he was a mason. And I followed roband night 2, also learning that he's quite probably town.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby webby » Thu Nov 24, 2011 12:51 pm UTC

Vote: Mav

That could be a forced vote, either by mav or to save mav. More likely they're the two scum and AS is trying to take the lynch to save mav.

We may end up looking stupid trusting mpolo like this, but i'm convinced it's our best chance.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Mavketl » Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:50 pm UTC

webby wrote:We may end up looking stupid trusting mpolo like this
YA THINK?

We're going into N3 and D4 with one scum and the SK both alive, which means 2 NKs which means fucking disastrous. You're trusting the SK to tell the entire truth about their role so they can help town at no benefit to themselves, and that's pretty stupid in itself.

We need to lynch mpolo to get rid of a kill tonight or we're in deep shit. I don't know why everyone suddenly went "ah well let's go with this" while they had previously been saying that it was a better idea to lynch mpolo. I don't know what AS is doing, but I'm not going to vote for her instead because we need to get rid of a kill if we want to stand a chance here.

And anyway, I think there's a decent chance that mpolo injects his target with his venom when he votes for them and he's lying about it because he doesn't want to die.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:05 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:We're going into N3 and D4 with one scum and the SK both alive


you're admitting to being scum? Or am I missing something here?
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Mavketl » Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:08 pm UTC

roband wrote:
Mavketl wrote:We're going into N3 and D4 with one scum and the SK both alive


you're admitting to being scum? Or am I missing something here?
No you dork :P

I'm saying that if AS and I will die, that's one dead scum (AS) which leaves the SK and one scum still alive. Which means two nightkills.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:28 pm UTC

Right.

The reason for not killing mpolo is because we believe we can control his kill tonight and then lynch him tomorrow.

Unless something comes along to change that, we're pretty screwed anyway.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby Mavketl » Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:42 pm UTC

I can think of several ways to screw that over if I were scum and I think you can, too. Please note that I'm not fucking using any of them.

I understand that you think you can control mpolo, but that means you trust him to tell you the entire truth in exchange for nothing (he knows he's going to get lynched tomorrow). Why would he do that if he didn't have a way of turning this to his advantage?

There are two choices here:
1) trust the SK completely, town's fate depends on it (plus assume Mav is scum AND too stupid to derail this tactic)
2) eliminate the SK and depend on the presumably townie roleblocker to jail either the scum killer or the target.

Even if I didn't know for sure that you're killing the wrong target for plan 1, I would still think 2 is a better shot - but I definitely think that now.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Thu Nov 24, 2011 2:52 pm UTC

For the first time this game, I know what you're talking about in your first sentence.

And that's making me start to trust you... FFS. I am too easily swayable in this game. Add in the fact that webby already thinks that you and I could be a scum pairing, me siding with you now isn't going to reflect particularly well on me now, is it?

Also, you being town makes FAOT scum. Earlier in the game you were fairly happy to say he was town, based on your PMing with him...
I know things change. But.. I dunno.

I'm conflicted.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby ForAllOfThis » Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:47 pm UTC

I do agree with Mav (the reasoning is sound and there is absolutely 0% chance of hitting town, which is good). One kill is so much less dangerous than two. We really do have no reason to trust mpolo. Obviously we need enough people on for a vote change at this point.
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Re: Zoo Mafia 3: Day 3-Content Penguin

Postby roband » Thu Nov 24, 2011 4:01 pm UTC

But it's a coinflip (at best) that we survive the night.

I think we're fucked here, regardless. I'll follow webby, if he's happy to decide one way or the other.
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