Amy's Surprise Game [OVER - Sapphire Scrooge Win]

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby mpolo » Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:24 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:And everyone who thinks it's scummy to change votes: screw you! Things got ridiculous and the day was gonna end! It is very annoying to be encouraged to A) keep my vote on someone even though I think someone else is more likely to be scum or B) withhold my vote until I'm "sure" who scum is. And I think that encouragement is anti-town enough to warrent some more FoSes, so I'll slather those on greenlover and mpolo (and FAOT...).

To summarize, scummiest: GoP, mpolo, greenlover, wei, bio (though I'm pretty sure he's jester). However, FAOT looks really scummy to me from reading back and from the aforementioned "scumtells" so perhaps I'm just bad at this.



It's not scummy to change votes, but it is scummy to do so very often, because it looks like you are just trying to see if you can get a wagon running on various different players.

I'm not quite sure what you are accusing me of…
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Adam H » Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:05 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:It's not scummy to change votes, but it is scummy to do so very often, because it looks like you are just trying to see if you can get a wagon running on various different players.

I'm not quite sure what you are accusing me of…
I am accusing you merely of discouraging players from changing their votes. It's a very minor accusation... but it seems slightly anti-town to me - if information changes, then votes should change.

Which one of my votes looks like I was trying to see if I could get a wagon running?
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:23 pm UTC

I agree with Krong's analysis re: Day1. I believe Haze's power was a night without kills. Krong's reveal I think puts him in the slightly townie category; It's a decent time to claim it, though I'm not sure what they mean about cops not being sure of their results; Day1, sure, but day2 they would have an idea.

Adam's acting very defensive, but thats normal for them. I don't like them advocating a Wei lynch though; I haven't seen any reasons, and just because townies want to lynch Weiy, does not a scum make.

Will have a closer look at Misnomer and mpolo; they have sorta slipped under my radar.

I'm still convinced bio is scum. I think his play on day2 was simply to convince everyone he was a jester.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby webby » Thu Dec 29, 2011 9:48 am UTC

A few random thoughts:

Based on what roband said yesterday, I think it's about as likely that roband is scum as that weiyaoli/Angua are. Roband said the he didn't specifically get told tim's alignment, so it wouldn't be any more or less bastardry/mod lying than the weiyaoli/Angua thing. I'd rate the chances that all three are town as pretty high though.

We probably have 3, 5 or 7 scum left assuming the teams were balanced evenly (I'd leave a small possibility that weiyaoli + Angua are a smaller scum team).

The players who we have no reason to think are town:
GoP, mpolo, Adam H, Mav, Boomfrog, Misnomer, Krong, b.i.o, greenlover. (And of course myself for everyone else)

No idea about Mav and greenlover, who haven't posted any time recently.

Adam H is acting as he always does as town, I've never seen him as scum.

Krong's claim is interesting and would be a weird thing to make up from nothing. I'm not sure that it's inherently a town role though, I think it would perhaps even be more useful to scum than to town.

I'll get to the rest of the players another time.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Adam H » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:43 pm UTC

webby wrote:Based on what roband said yesterday, I think it's about as likely that roband is scum as that weiyaoli/Angua are. Roband said the he didn't specifically get told tim's alignment, so it wouldn't be any more or less bastardry/mod lying than the weiyaoli/Angua thing.
I think t1mm/roband just didn't tell us the whole story. I guess I'm just much more willing to trust someone that I KNOW is town (t1mm) then the rest of you wine-spewing assholes. :)

I think at this point I'd prefer to ignore roband, wei, angua, and even bio, and just lynch someone else (though if it looks like we need a unified town vote I'd still probably be ok with following roband on wei). Lots of decent choices between mpolo, greenlover, boomfrog, webby, misnomer, mav, etc... I'm leaning towards mpolo because OMGUS! Mainly, he never acknowledged that he voted for me for something that I never said/thought/did, and the vote-switching justification is too easy, lazy, and flawed.
Adam H wrote:
mpolo wrote:And then there's "spiky" Adam H, who hasn't really alleviated the scum vibe that I had for him. He's together with roband on this "3rd and 4th votes are absolutely scummy". There's a statistical preference for those slots over time, but it's wrong to argue that without a lot of corroborating evidence.
Please explain. I don't remember saying that 3rd/4th votes are scummy, although in general, sure, it's seen as a scumtell.


Vote: mpolo

I'm curious to hear from boomfrog about if he was targetted by anything last night. Depending on whether he decides it's worth sharing with scum, I guess.

I'll probably not have time this weekend to post. Happy new years!
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:57 am UTC

First of all. I think it's pretty clear that I'm not on infinia's team. I was trying to get him lynched D1 as well, I unless you think I am a master manipulator who can push and vote for a lynch target while assuring no one else will vote, putting a teammate D1 at one vote when the second highest is two votes would be pretty risky. And if I was planning on unvoting if someone else followed me, I'd have ended up looking really scummy most likely.

Anyway, it doesn't prove I am town, since I could still be on the other team. But it is interesting to see people's opinion on the issue.

mpolo observes that I must not be purple. Misnomer casts doubt and b.i.o. and mpolo agrees. Then everyone drops it. Then AdamH brings it up again.

I'll agree there was too much confusion late on D2 for a lynch to form on a new candidate, especially with t1mm's self vote. But Adam and t1mm had said they thought infinia was scummy, if they had switch votes and one more person had joined in then we could have got him. I think there was definitely some hidden resistance from his team mates. AdamH is basically saying everything I'm thinking so I'm feeling pretty town about him. Mpolo is still top of my scum list now that infinia is gone. I think his first post declaring me not on infinia's team was due to him being on infinia's team and failing to compartmentalize his extra information.

In fact:

Vote mpolo

Adam H wrote:I'm curious to hear from boomfrog about if he was targetted by anything last night. Depending on whether he decides it's worth sharing with scum, I guess.
Well, most powers don't let you know if you've been targeted unless they kill you. So they only way I would know I was targeted is if I had a power that told me so. What do you expect me to answer to this question? I will say that I have no information that confirms or denies Krong's story.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:59 am UTC

P.S. I would have posted about two days ago but I've been sucked into an evil tower defense game. :roll:
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Angua » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:40 am UTC

Sorry about the lack of posting - I've been really busy during the days and the bloody phone company still hasn't fixed the line into my grandmother's house where I spend most of my evenings (2 days ago someone showed up, said the line was broken, then left without saying when he'd fix it or anything else). I've been keeping up while reading in the mornings, but analysis is hard to get done when I'm really sleepy, The weekend is the best time for me at the moment.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Krong » Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:37 am UTC

Note to self: This time of year really doesn't work for me playing mafia games...

I've read through the thread again and will post detailed thoughts in a bit, but here are some quick thoughts:

infina's posts didn't reveal much useful, but I would say that FAOT and BoomFrog went after him pretty hard. I seriously doubt that BF was distancing there, so I think BF isn't on infina's team.

A redirect doesn't seem like a particularly townie power... the only good use I could think of would be redirecting scumkills on the person who used them. I think that what I saw came from scum, and I really doubt that scum would be redirecting their own abilities, so Adam H looks a little more likely to be town from that. Probably the same goes for BoomFrog; since scum would have reason to be afraid of kills from the other scum team, they likely wouldn't want abilities intended for others on one of their own. I might be reading too much into this, though.

Re: what I meant by worrying about cop redirects: Say Adam H is a town cop, BF is town, and Adam H actually copped ScummyMcScumson last night. Let's say we reach endgame with those three alive. Adam H got "town" on Scummy, and will be misled into voting incorrectly because he didn't know about the redirect. That's why I decided to give out my results now -- I didn't see much upside to staying quiet, and I saw a big potential downside to not doing so.

I find myself trusting and agreeing with Adam H, BoomFrog, and GoP the most. I didn't come across any strong reason to lynch wei or Angua, whether or not they're meant to be confirmed town. I feel like there's a bit of weirdness around roband still -- I don't understand why tim came up as "mason" when he only gained chat yesterday, nor why we'd have a setup with a confimed unkillable townie -- but that shouldn't take priority over tim's confirmation that roband is town.

bio and mpolo look most scummy to me, but before I vote:

Mod: Any word on Mavketl? Can you modprod / look for a replacement?
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Krong » Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:39 am UTC

EBWOP: Actually, those thoughts ended up being more detailed than I thought, so expect my next post tomorrow or so.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby greenlover » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:46 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:First of all. I think it's pretty clear that I'm not on infinia's team.
Later in the same post, BoomFrog wrote:Mpolo is still top of my scum list now that infinia is gone. I think his first post declaring me not on infinia's team was due to him being on infinia's team and failing to compartmentalize his extra information.
I....what? First its self evident that you're not on infinia's team, but then mpolo is suspicious for suspecting as such?

From what I can see, Krong wasn't under much suspicion before his claim, so I see little reason why not to trust it. As for a lynch... I'm still not too horribly comfortable with AdamH, but I'm guessing that's probably a issue of style than alignment. I really don't understand the arguments being made against mpolo, and I haven't really read that closely on anyone else. I guess I'll have to do a re-read before I vote, then.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:14 am UTC

Sorry that I worded that confusingly. My conclusion changed as I wrote out the post and thought everything through. I think its clear that I'm not on infina's team if you consider D1 but not clear if you only consider D2 which is what it seems everyone did. Mpolo was quick to jump to a conclusion and then quick to change his opinion. If he had backed up his original opinion instead of backing down I may believe him. But his current action is trying way too hard to not stick out.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:21 am UTC

I unfortunately don't have time for this until tomorrow. My statement about BF not being on _infina_'s team was due to his vote against _infina_. Others pointed out that a single vote doesn't really clear him completely (since _Infina_ was in no danger). So I backed down off of "certainty" that he wasn't on that team down to a more neutral position. I think it is still likely that BF is not on _infina_'s team. He could well be on the other scum team, though.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Krong » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:52 am UTC

Ah, so other people were getting pings from that, too. Let's look again, shall we? Here's the first post of the day:
mpolo wrote:Infina's alignment would indicate that either BoomFrog is Sapphire or town. Otherwise, it's a shame to lose a mason, even if he was acting as strangely as he was. There are presumably some scum on that wagon.

That was pretty wimpy for a first post of the day, but tomorrow is Christmas! It's practically here!

My initial reaction to this (though admittedly I'd been lurking and kinda skimming) was: "Wait, what?" When I figured out he was basing this on BF's vote... I was still confused. We had a huge amount of debate around tim and roband, a night with no kills followed by a night with two, and mpolo's first thought was to make an assertion about BoomFrog?

I'm less interested in the "logic fail" present, but more interested in the fact that "infina is purple means BF is town/sapphire" was so quick to come to mind. I agree with BF here -- it's like he'd been carefully watching his scumbuddy come under attack, then forgot that infina wasn't at all a focus of the previous days when he saw that infina was the victim of a kill.

Actually.... hmm... now this is a bit of a reach, but a theory: FAOT and BF were the main attackers of infina (I'll look up the evidence if necessary.) FAOT was killed last night along with infina; the simplest explanation for this is infina's team killing FAOT. mpolo seemed very aware of BF's actions, and also was voting for Adam H along with infina (and FAOT). Therefore... infina and mpolo are both purple punks, and furthermore were most worried about the suspicion falling on infina. Which would indicate that other primary lynch options (like b.i.o. or weiyaoli) are probably not purple scum, but town or sapphire scum. Hell, and maybe the redirect I saw was team infina, too.

...I'm starting to like an mpolo lynch quite a bit. I feel like I may have cracked a code, and really want to see if I'm right.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby b.i.o » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:16 pm UTC

Well, clearly not enough people agree with me on weiy, and he's apparently not playing anymore or something, so...

unvote
vote: Krong


So many problems. So many. I don't know where to start. How about at the beginning?

D1: nothing of consequence. normally means either scum or power role, but since the day ended early, I can't really conclude anything from it. (Although the lack of any votes at all still pings me a tiny bit.)

D2: starts out not saying much. Fruitlessly asks me questions a couple of times:
So... b.i.o., what kind of explanation do you have for that instalynch?

So... b.i.o. either had some sort of posting restriction happen to him, or is pretending he did. And... that's all we know for sure. Well durn. Seriously, bio, can you not say anything about this?


Has one lengthy post, but upon reading it appears that there's actuallly not much there. There's some discussion of the animal restrictions (which had gone away at that point), and then there's some discussion of the color stuff, and then he says he'll post more later.

His last post is short, states the obvous ("it looks like there's been a mini bandwagon against tim"), and wasn't very close to the end of the day. Still no votes or anything at all.

At this point, I was mildly suspicious of Krong. He hadn't said much, but he'd been active enough not to be one of the really bad lurkers, and he hadn't expressed any strong opinions or voted for anyone, despite there being things to express opinions about.

D3: It starts with the claim. I have a real problem with this claim. It got us very little information and the claimed role could work equally well as town or scum. I also don't like that the primary outcome of this claim seemed to be that we shouldn't trust cop results, because their investigations might be redirected. While I do thing it's valuable to know there's a chance of an investigation being wrong, the fact that it was specifically singled out here pings me.

His next post starts making some claims and assumptions I don't like at all:
A redirect doesn't seem like a particularly townie power... the only good use I could think of would be redirecting scumkills on the person who used them.

This seems like an okay town role to me...it's sort of a combination doctor/vig, and it's entirely likely that the role, if it exists, has subleties you don't know about.

I think that what I saw came from scum

There *were* only two kills last night, but there's no other real evidence to support this. It's entirely possible this game has a vig or sk. We've only gone through one night where people could use actions.

Probably the same goes for BoomFrog; since scum would have reason to be afraid of kills from the other scum team, they likely wouldn't want abilities intended for others on one of their own.

This assumes redirection is two-way, which as far as I know you have no evidence for.

Finally in this post, there's the "I find mpolo and bio scummy" thing, which bothers me because we're easy targets. Me obviously, and Adam H and BF just voted for mpolo, so that argument's already been made.

His final post goes back to the colors thing, and then spouts off a theory that happens to suggest weiy is more likely to be town:
Which would indicate that other primary lynch options (like b.i.o. or weiyaoli) are probably not purple scum, but town or sapphire scum.

(I'm included for good measure.) Since I happen to still believe weiy is scum, my guess is that Krong and weiy are on a scum team together.

Basically, the tl;dr on all of this is that Krong lurked a lot, and (much more importantly) had basically no opinions on anything up until today. Today his opinions are safe ones. And throughout every post today, he's been making assumptions that I think are completely ungrounded, which prime other people to believe the same thing much more easily. So I'm suspicious.


Also, all of this discussion is predicated on Krong telling the truth about there being a redirector. We have absolutely no independent confirmation of that, and I dislike accepting it as fact until then.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Krong » Sun Jan 01, 2012 4:25 am UTC

There's so much obviously misleading bullshit in each line of the above that I am convinced you want me to vote for you. You're overplaying it enough that you might not really be a jester, but I think I can ignore that for now in favor of a better lynch option.

Mod: When exactly is the deadline?

In case it's very soon:

Vote: mpolo

for the previously mentioned active lurking and weird connections to infina.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby mpolo » Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:37 am UTC

Reread from page 10.

Spoiler:
b.i.o - trusts mason's claim. Renews weiyaoli vote. GoP had weak vote against him. We're not looking for behavioral changes, as there is no cult. If one of "confirmed town" is scum, likely both are. Doesn't like Krong's claim. Krong went from lurky (no opinions) to active. Lots of ungrounded assumptions.

weiyaoli - don't trust tim's restriction. Needs replacement.

t1mm01994 - claims that posts are being edited that he posts against weiyaoli ==> FLIPPED TOWN and MASON

BF - roband isn't confirmed town if the two didn't start as masons. mpolo is trying too hard not to stick out.

FAOT - explains absence. Roband = lyncher?, tim uncertain, wei seems town, votes Adam; cites a "Mason" chat that had a scum member.

roband - his PM from Amy said "masons", not "daychat", so he thinks t1mm is town; also the contents of said chat seems townie; stops defending himself; short post suggesting that those who were attacking him are scum (or that he is now under control); clarified in next post as an attempt to goad. b.i.o unlikely jester, Angua not likely scum.

Adam - unvotes t1mm; accuses FAOT of scaring people off of voting; asks clarification of my vote; notes weirdness of t1mm's claim, votes t1mm; roband is now more confirmed town than "confirmed town". Thinks the redirect was of his action. No townie points for BF for voting infina. GoP, weiy and FAOT were somewhat dismissive of infina votes. Changing votes is not scummy. Opening text means less now than before. No evidence of being redirected. Asks which of his votes look scummy. Let's avoid the hard cases until there is more info. Votes mpolo.

Misnomer - master/minion is rare, but not unheard of; lots of wine; weiy wagon is very weak; doesn't like t1mm/roband's play, esp. self-vote; roband must be town now, defends his vote on t1mm. Points out my weak logic. Wants to re-read re: Adam. Weiy wagon was based on fourth vote. mpolo playing safe. Krong is believable.

FAOT - explains his voting strategy to Adam.

Krong: claims redirect from Adam to BF. Claims insomniac -- sees a random night action. Apologizes for inactivity. BF did go pretty hard against infina. Redirect isn't very townie. Explains comment about cops. Trusts Adam, Boom, GoP most. mpolo's conclusion about BF came too quickly.

GoP: b.i.o's vote is weak. Votes b.i.o; my vote was self-evident, also there was the weirdness early on day one. Thinks a "night without kills" power was used. Krong seems slightly townie. Adam is defensive. Don't like weiy wagon. b.i.o is scum.

greenlover - GoP hardly has to explain his vote, as the reasons against b.i.o are self-evident; BoomFrog flops on whether it is clear that he's not on infina's team.

Angua - b.i.o is annoying. Weiy should be watched. Asks for reason for Krong's redirect. B.i.o accuses Angua with little evidence. Apologizes for inactivity

webby - roband and weiy/Angua are about equal in "confirmedness". Not sure if Krong's role is inherently townie.


First Day votes:
5 - tim (misnomer, gop, weiy, tim, adam)
In retrospect, t1mm must have been forced to vote as he did.
I presume that his controller also voted here, though that is
not entirely certain
3 - adam h (infina, faot, mpolo)
Scum started this one and didn't back down. Probably indicative
of Adam not being on infina's team
2 - weiyoli (bio, roband)
weiyaoli is "confirmed town", whatever that means.
1 - roband (angua)
Angua is "confirmed town", whatever that means.
1 - infina (boom)
I probably over-interpreted this one before and can't do much
to change that…

Day Two votes (unofficial):

1 b.i.o - (Gopher of Pern)
1 Krong - (b.i.o)
3 mpolo - (Adam H, BoomFrog, Krong)

There are a lot of barely active people, as well as some inactives. This is explained by the season, of course, but it does mean that we have relatively few people actually posting.

RE: my statement about BoomFrog. It was posted at a moment where I had little time. I glanced at the results to see if I could read anything out of them. Based on what has happened since, and looking back at earlier days, my conclusion was probably correct, but was really made "from the hip" in the moment I said it.

One of roband's posts made me wonder if he was being controlled, but I later decided that that wasn't the case.

Krong: I basically believe his claim, and that he is likely town.
Adam: uncertain, but unfortunately for me, probably town.
b.i.o: annoyingly unreadable, but the only person really defending me. Neutral.
Gopher of Pern: Uncertain of how to read him. Seems very fixated on b.i.o
Misnomer: Has seemed generally townie
FAOT: Has kind of disappeared due to RealLife. Also sowing mistrust of our (probable) mason. A little scummy.
BoomFrog: As always, once he gets someone in his sights, he goes hard against them. I think this is his townie persona, even though I'm the one in his sights.
Angua: Kind of quiet, and "confirmed". I would want real evidence before I'd advocate a lynch here.
roband: Because of the mason flip from t1mm, I am inclined to accept him as town.

to Adam - my vote on you was (especially in retrospect) not a very strong one. If I misread that you were using the "3rd-4th vote" thing, I apologize. I had the impression that there was a lot of flailing on votes. No vote in particular makes me say "scum", but the number of flops seemed scummy.

The only person that came off even a little scummy in my re-read was FAOT. And with a looming deadline, I have to go with that.

Vote: ForAllOfThis
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby b.i.o » Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:45 pm UTC

Krong wrote:There's so much obviously misleading bullshit in each line of the above

If your goal was to make me feel much more assured of my vote, you've succeeded admirably.

Also, mpolo. FAOT was killed n2:
Sungura wrote:FAOT is dead, he was town
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby b.i.o » Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:49 pm UTC

Krong wrote:There's so much obviously misleading bullshit in each line of the above that I am convinced you want me to vote for you. You're overplaying it enough that you might not really be a jester, but I think I can ignore that for now in favor of a better lynch option.

This is so bad I'm making two posts about it, right in a row.

What an awful, awful response to my accusations. If what I said was actually "obviously misleading bullshit", you'd be able to go through and point out why it's all wrong. (Which, interestingly enough, is exactly what I did to everything you've posted today.) But since it's not "obviously misleading bullshit", you're going to have a hard time doing so. Instead, you've resorted to trying to brush off my accusations without actually addressing them, which has me further convinced you're scum.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby mpolo » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:45 pm UTC

Umm... I knew that.

Unvote

Bah. Back tomorrow.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:19 am UTC

I believe mpolo just outed themselves there.

Unvote

Vote: mpolo


I still believe Bio is scum, but will wait for another day to lynch them.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby webby » Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:43 am UTC

I agree with the general consensus that mpolo is scum.

I'm interested in the b.i.o vs Krong thing. I still really don't like b.i.o's vote on weiyaoli yesterday - as I said before, it feels like something that scum would definitely want to do, because they don't want there to be two confirmed townies. Town may do it, but it seems less likely - you'd have to really be sure and I can't see where you'd get that feeling from. The long post against Krong feels like it's going searching for any sign of possible logic fails or things that can be interpreted as such and using them to say that it means he must be scum - as if they've decided to say that Krong is scum and trying to make the evidence fit.

It is true that Krong has been a bit quiet and had no strong opinions on things, but that's true of about half the players in the game.

Basically - I think b.i.o is likely to be scum and Krong is neutral.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:16 pm UTC

This is where I'm supposed to make a speech with my last will and testament as town, but I don't have any more leads than anybody else. This lynch is probably not particularly tragic for us, as I have a little bit of an "Obi Wan" mechanic going here.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby roband » Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:32 pm UTC

By my rough count, I've made >60 posts in this game.

Gonna pick a player who hasn't posted anywhere near that much (randomly-ish selected) who haven't done any where near as many - and analyse their posts.
It's clever see, I analyse those who haven't posted much, because I'm lazy.

Webby
1. Doesn't think FAOT is scummy, not sure what to make of me (roband) being a sheep. Promises to post more.
2. Two scum factions can be helpful to town - related to a previous game - links are important to look for. Apologises for not posting more.
3. Claims weird vote mechanism. Explains jesters to Tim.
4. Day 2. Questions bio but doesn't want to vote - presumably due to mechanism, but doesn't explicitly state this.
5. Wants bio to full claim. Argues that angua and weiy are likely town.
6. Apologises for quietness again. Tries a public action (which does nothing). Longest post from him so far, yet it contains nothing useful.
7. Says he can post properly now! And gives us the longest post so far. infina/adamH always looks scummy - saying he both suspects them, but they could be town. Questions Tim (who later flipped town), thinks he is a different faction to mpolo. Then labels him as possible scum and mpolo as probable town. Doesn't suspect Misnomer.
8. Admits to lurking. Doesn't like bandwagon on weiy. More likely town than scum. Would rather lynch Tim (flipped town) than weiy. Thinks tim, weiyaoli, Boomfrog, mpolo, b.i.o are all town.
9. Tim is 50/50 scum. Suspects scum amongst lurkers and promises to analyse them.
10. Light analysis of lurkers - no firm suspicions. Need to look at links between players, rather than scummy actions. But has to wait until D3, as day is nearly over. Still wants to lynch Tim over weiy.
11. Questions Tim's defence of me (roband), and rightly so. Suggests jesterism.
12. Day 3. Likelihood of me being scum = to that of Angua/weiy. But all likely town. More light analysis - no firm suspicions.
13. mpolo is scum. Thinks b.i.o is likely to be scum and Krong is neutral.

Overall? Flaky. Very defensive of weiy and Angua. Very defensive of mpolo, until Tim flipped town. It strikes me that if we lynch mpolo and he's scum, webby should be our next target.
How's that for looking at links between players, eh? ;)

Really though, can someone explain why so many people are voting for mpolo? I don't see what's happened, although maybe I have scumblindness after reading back so much...
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Adam H » Tue Jan 03, 2012 5:00 pm UTC

b.i.o wrote:We've only gone through one night where people could use actions.
Is this as big a slip as it seems to me? I had no idea that no one could use actions N1... in fact Krong stated that he used a power on N1. But there were no NKs so apparently scum could not use actions. Honestly, it seems like such a big slip that my best guess is jester-bio put it in on purpose.


My mpolo-vote-rationale has been reduced to pretty much gut feelings at this point... I somewhat disagree that mpolo's first post of D3 is a big scumtell. It's somewhat reasonable to look at everyone who voted for scum and give them townie points. But there's no one else that strikes me as scummier so my vote stays on mpolo.

votals:
4 - mpolo (adam, BF, krong, gop)
1 - krong (bio)
"Day 3 starts now will end shortly after New Years at some point." So get on with the voting, yall. How the hell are we supposed to have a chance with a <50% voting rate?
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby greenlover » Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:32 pm UTC

Still don't get why people are trying to lynch mpolo, sorry. The fact that he voted for a player who was already dead indicates, for me at least, that he was not a part of the faction that did that player in. I'm also not really liking a Krong lynch. Sure, he's lurked. Hardly abnormal.

Still not sure who to vote for: I have some nagging suspicions, but nothing I think that would be worth the vote. Hopefully I'll be able to get a vote in before the deadline. Also, has weiyaoli been replaced yet?

Additionally, I'm going to out of town for the next couple of days. Should be back Saturday late, hopefully be able to place a vote then.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby roband » Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:47 pm UTC

Tell us about your nagging suspicions, for fucks sake...

Big FOS for that. If you die, how are we supposed to look at links or non-links?

Infact,

Vote Greenlover

for a massively lazy way to appear active - SCUM.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 04, 2012 6:17 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I believe mpolo just outed themselves there.

Unvote

Vote: mpolo


I still believe Bio is scum, but will wait for another day to lynch them.

I kinda agree with GL. I think there's plenty scummy about mpolo, but why is accidentally voting for a dead player scummy? It seemed like a sincere mistake, which is at least mildly Towny.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Angua » Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:53 pm UTC

I'm really sorry - it was another 4 day weekend here and they killed the internet at my house when they looked at my grandmother's line (didn't fix that either :P ) so hopefully it will be fixed this afternoon, however my hopes are low. This is just a quick message from work, but I don't have time for anything else.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 3]

Postby Sungura » Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:04 pm UTC

Votes are in, clearly, mpolo is dead.

sorry your mod is busy so no enter-night flavour

Night will end Sunday Jan 8th sometime evening EST.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Sungura » Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:13 pm UTC

And the sun rose late that morning, and as folks awoke to a unworldly screech they found mayhem. Someone swore they saw mpolo walking around that night, even though he had been lynched. Of course no one believed this nonsense but someone kept quiet as they felt temporarily possessed...protected perhaps. But the ghost disappeared into the night never to be seen again and the feeling of safety left the town.

Roband was found dead where he lay, pool of blood forming under his body. It looked like he had been writing in a journal, keeping notes on who he thought was town and not. Apparently he has shown this journal to a few, but their names were a blur in the blood.

And no one could find bio anywhere. He just...disappeared. There were whispers of rumors that he vanished into thin air when someone tried to stab him, but of course no one was talking.


mpolo is dead, town
roband is dead, town, mason
bio is presumed dead as well.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Adam H » Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:48 pm UTC

That's a lot of flavor to think about. Sounds like mpolo protected someone from a NK last night. Maybe he protected bio? And Roband showed some people who he thought was town and not. Whether that's something special, or just the basic mason ability, I dunno.

9-11 players still alive.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Misnomer » Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:38 am UTC

Right, so it sounds as if mpolo was some sort of zombie doctor... which is a pretty neat role, come to think of it. That said, I reckon I'm more inclined to believe that b.i.o's dissapearance was related to b.i.o's own powers, whatever they may be, than any protection offered by ghost mpolo. But's that's more of a gut instinct about the setup than anything else - although it's strengthened somewhat by the fact that I don't think mpolo really gave much of an impression that b.i.o was someone to be protected.

But yeah, long story short, mpolo's turned up town and b.i.o is now even more of an unknown than he was yesterday. :|

I think now might be the time to look again at the whole confirmed townie thing. I'll try and get some post analyses done on wei and angua when I'm sober.

In the meantime though,

Vote: b.i.o

In order to shed some light on his current status...
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Sungura » Tue Jan 10, 2012 3:31 am UTC

I have tried to find a replacement for weiyaoli and no one has stepped forward. To allay any issues, I feel the fairest thing that can be done is a modkill.

Weiyoli has been modkilled, he was a Sapphire Scrooge
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Sungura » Tue Jan 10, 2012 3:47 am UTC

A ghost swoops in a wraps around Krong, who to all observing see him fighting an invisible object, knocking over carts of apples and smashing melons. The ghost reaches down Krong's trachea and into his lungs and pulls out the last of his breath. Just like that, Krong is dead.

Krong is now dead, he was Mafia, sapphire scrooge.

8 players left, 5 to lynch.

Day 4 ends on friday morning/something like that.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Misnomer » Tue Jan 10, 2012 10:11 am UTC

Well, that's pretty awesome :D


FoS: Angua
We have two scum factions, we had two players declared confirmed townie at the start, and now one of those players
has flipped. I'll get an analysis done later today.

In the meantime, '8 players left' seems to imply that b.i.o is no longer among us.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby roband » Tue Jan 10, 2012 10:34 am UTC

*dies*
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Angua » Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:07 pm UTC

Weiyaoli was mafia? That doesn't look good for me, but I definitely am not scum. Is a 'scrooge' any particular role? (ie was weiyaoli a godfather, or just a henchman?) nvm I forgot about Krong who came up 'scrooge' as well?

I'm really sorry about not posting in the last couple of weeks - they finally fixed the line so we can have internet and phone, but I'm flying back to the UK today, where I will have time to reread day 3 and post a nice long analysis to make up for everything.I

As for the b.i.o. thing - I think they're going to turn up tomorrow or something like that, or maybe they'll still be active at night but can't talk during the day.

mpolo may have only been able to protect someone after he'd been lynched as a one-shot thing. I'm wondering if weiyaoli dying had something to do with Krong's death (though that doens't make much sense as they were on the same team) as it happened just afterwards with the ghost and all, but I guess it could have been a very fast acting day-vig.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Adam H » Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:15 pm UTC

Woohoo what a turn around!

The opening flavor talks about the "purple punks" and the "sapphire scrooges". So scrooge doesn't mean anything other than indicating the alignment, I assume.

We'll see if anything else interesting happens today, but Angua definitely looks worthy of a lynch. I doubt the sapphire scrooges have a culting mechanism since they're supposed to be the entrenched mafia group. It was bio who suggested that wei and angua are the heads of the two mafia groups, which at this point seems likely. Although if bio comes back purple punk, that would make me feel much better about angua... Might be worth waiting to see, depending on if we have another good lynch target.

Here's a couple analyses on the two most suspicious players, IMO:

Angua
Spoiler:
Hasn't posted much in the last 2 weeks due to internet problems. Thinks if wei and him were godfathers, that would make scum OP. Doesn't vouch for wei - hints that if wei were scum, he must have been culted. Completely misunderstands Krong's role. Says that if t1mm and roband were masons, town would be OP. Votes roband because roband voted for wei, and angua thinks t1mm was mind controlled into defending roband.

My shaky conclusions: Angua figured that wei is scum, and when wei dies he'll look bad. Therefore he wanted to make it seem like wei was culted rather than started as scum. He's probably not Sapphire since he misunderstood krong's role when I thought it was pretty obvious. He says that masons would make town OP, but then once t1mm comes back mason, he says that scum would be OP if wei and him were godfathers. And finally, he votes roband and comes up with what I think is an absurd reason for doing so (mind control?).

As an aside, it's kind of hilarious (not to make light of your personal problems! I feel for you!) how many excuses he gives for not posting. Since December 14, I count 7 out of 11 posts in which he explains why he hasn't posted recently. It's almost enough to make me think it's a posting restriction!

greenlover
Spoiler:
Roband votes for him and I agree that GL is a good lynch. Greenlover has been very hesitant to offer opinion which I think is a scumtell at this point.

From what I can glean from recent posts, he trusts Krong's claim, thinks I look suspicious, thinks there isn't much argument against FAOT and wei, thinks roband is confirmed town, and... that's it? Not much to go on...

Whoops, it might be time to prod/kick mavkatl. His last post was December 12.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Mavketl » Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:03 pm UTC

Yeah, hi. I'm really sorry everyone, I had completely forgotten I was in a game until the modprod. :(

I have a load of reading up to do and I'll do that and then post useful things.
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