xkcd

by **ConMan** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:05 am UTC

It was another quiet day in a quiet cul-de-sac in a quiet suburb in quiet Xkcdia. The residents of Munroe Close went about their daily business, unaware of the secrets the neighbourhood hid. That day, a police officer came to address the neighbourhood.

"Folks, we’ve been tracking some mafia activity, and it seems to be connected to someone around here. I’m asking you to let me know if you spot anything out of the ordinary."

But if anyone knew anything, there was no chance to tell him. Shots rang out, and the officer lay dead in a pool of blood. What could the neighbours possibly do? Call the police? Obviously they were no use. By general consensus, they agreed to take care of things the way they always did in Xkcdia - through lynch mob.

The Rules:

Spoiler:

Role information:

Spoiler:

Alive players:

Spoiler:

Dead players:

Spoiler:

All players please confirm in thread.

by **Vieto** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:14 am UTC

confirming.

by **ConMan** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:29 am UTC

Players please note: There will not be a Night Zero. Do not PM your neighbours until N1.

by **Mostlynormal** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:39 am UTC

Confirming. Just curious, does the neighborhood run in a circle, or are there "end neighbors" who have only one neighbor?

by **TheMaskedGecko** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:04 am UTC

Confirming

by **roband** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:07 am UTC

Mostlynormal wrote:Confirming. Just curious, does the neighborhood run in a circle, or are there "end neighbors" who have only one neighbor?

If you bold that, the mod will see it as a question to them and answer it (or maybe not).

If I were to have con, believe me when I tell you it would be the firmest con you've ever seen...

by **t1mm01994** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:26 am UTC

Confirmed.

by **ConMan** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:57 am UTC

Mostlynormal wrote:Confirming. Just curious, does the neighborhood run in a circle, or are there "end neighbors" who have only one neighbor?

I'm going to pretend that was in bold - this time.

The neighbourhood is a small cul-de-sac, with bizarre space-time warping portals that conveniently allow everyone to have two neighbours. A similar effect helps connect houses when their common neighbour is killed.

by **mpolo** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:14 pm UTC

Confirming. It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

by **roband** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 10:41 am UTC

Sorta starting the game spec already, but does "Possible Town roles include:" mean we have all of them, or we might have some of them?

by **ConMan** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:30 am UTC

roband wrote:Sorta starting the game spec already, but does "Possible Town roles include:" mean we have all of them, or we might have some of them?

Yes.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:46 am UTC

@ Conman's response.

by **Vieto** » Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:49 am UTC

Yeah, I was kind of expecting Conman's answer.

Also, roleclaiming Naughty Neighbor!

by **ConMan** » Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:59 am UTC

I roleclaim Nihilist Neighbour. It's a surprisingly boring role. Well, probably not that surprisingly.

Just to be clear, we are just waiting on BoomFrog to confirm. He has read his PM, but given his post in another game detailing extenuating circumstances I'm going to be pretty lenient on him for the moment.

by **BoomFrog** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:16 am UTC

Sorry All. Yes I'm here.

by **roband** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:28 am UTC

So can we start, or shall we wait for the mod to change the title?

by **ConMan** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:29 am UTC

Does that answer your question?

It is now Day 1. Deadline for voting is Thursday 19 January, 10:28 PM Australian Eastern Daylight Savings Time (07:28 AM UTC).

Edited to fix UTC time - at no point in history has the Australian east coast been on UTC+8.

by **roband** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:43 am UTC

Ok, so things to think about.

Do we claim who our neighbours are?
Shall we spec what we think the roles (Nosy Neighbour, Noisy Neighbour, Nuisance Neighbour, Nocturnal Neighbour, Nurturing Neighbour, Normal Neighbour) could mean?
Percentages of one of your neighbours being scum, percentages of both of your neighbours being scum? The latter has to be pretty low, but I was never any good at turning this into a maths game.

Some other stuff, I'm sure. I'll post more when I think about it.

by **Vieto** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:06 pm UTC

Well, I'm going to jump into some quick role spec:

first, the 3 obvious ones:
Nosy Neighbour: most likely a cop, who can only cop neighbors
Nurturing Neighbour: most likely a doctor, that can only protect neighbors
Normal Neighbour: obviously vanilla

and the more interesting ones:
Nuisance Neighbour: My guess is a roleblock, as they are being a nuisance.
Nocturnal Neighbour: maybe a cop-like role, or perhaps they are bulletproof or a variant of that, given they are up at night.
Noisy Neighbour: I'm not sure. None of the normal role types (vig/roleblock/etc.) really fit this. Jester perhaps? Double roleblock? Miller?

by **roband** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:10 pm UTC

Vieto wrote:and the more interesting ones:
Nuisance Neighbour: My guess is a roleblock, as they are being a nuisance.
Nocturnal Neighbour: maybe a cop-like role, or perhaps they are bulletproof or a variant of that, given they are up at night.
Noisy Neighbour: I'm not sure. None of the normal role types (vig/roleblock/etc.) really fit this. Jester perhaps? Double roleblock? Miller?

I agree with nuisance likely being roleblock, but I'd suggest nocturnal would be a watcher. Y'know, sat there, looking out the window at their neighbours place, watching who comes and/or goes?
As for noisy, it could be that they drown out any chat? So, a nightchat-blocker, perhaps.

by **mpolo** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:17 pm UTC

I would also note that there are six possible town roles listed, but only five townies (the two scum are a seventh type, "Naughty Neighbors"). As such, it is clear that at least one of those town types is not in the game (unless I have really misunderstood something, in which case, please correct me).

It occurred to me that knowing the topology of the street (i.e. compiling a neighbor list) could be extremely useful, especially if the scum kill can only go against neighbors. Then, on reveal of the the kill victim, we would have one mafia identified (at 50% accuracy, of course). There is almost certainly a down side to such a claim, which I'm not seeing at the moment.

by **t1mm01994** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:41 pm UTC

roband wrote:Ok, so things to think about.

Do we claim who our neighbours are?
Shall we spec what we think the roles (Nosy Neighbour, Noisy Neighbour, Nuisance Neighbour, Nocturnal Neighbour, Nurturing Neighbour, Normal Neighbour) could mean?
Percentages of one of your neighbours being scum, percentages of both of your neighbours being scum? The latter has to be pretty low, but I was never any good at turning this into a maths game.

Some other stuff, I'm sure. I'll post more when I think about it.

Odds for helpfulness:
Odds of scum being neighbours: 1/3
Odds of scum having 1 person in between: 1/3
Odds of scum having 2 persons in between: 1/3.
Odds of having exactly 1 scum neighbour, given that you're town: 8/15
Odds of having 2 scum neigbours, given town: 1/15
Odds of having no scum neighbours, given town: 2/5.

So, congratulations, 2/7 are scum and 3/5 town on average border on scum.
From this we can conclude that in 1/3 of the cases we're absolutely boned because scum have nightchat, and given that mpolo is right about the NK mechanics, in 1/3 of the cases scum still has the possibility to kill whoever they want. Ooh, and I wouldn't want to be that person stuck :p

To rolespec, I think noisy is more likely to be able to chat with other people than their neighbours.
I agree on the others, that is cop/doc/vanilla/watcher/roleblock.

by **TheMaskedGecko** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:43 pm UTC

Mass roleclaiming doesn't offer any advantages that I can see. We don't know how many roles there are so it confirming anything would be tricky. All that would happen is that scum would know what they were up against. As for building up a street plan, I can see how that'd be useful. The only reason I'm wary of it is that I'm trying to think of tactics which would be specific to this set up and it's possible that having neighbours unknown could prove instrumental in such a plan.

by **t1mm01994** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:21 pm UTC

The problem with not neighbourclaiming is that if nks can only go down on neighbours, noone will claim to be neighbour because that would give you a 50% chance of being lynched for scum. If all is claimed in advance, we can very easily tell who the neighbours are, and as such who is likely scum. I too am against roleclaiming when it is not necessary, as far as that was mentioned by anyone so far.

by **roband** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:39 pm UTC

No, we shouldn't claim. If we do, scum know who they need to kill to be able to night chat with each other, right?
So, yeah, FOS everyone who's posted so far basically.

The more communication scum have, the more they can control the game. We can't aid them, by giving them info.

But then, I suppose it's a tossup between how much info scum get, and how much info we get as town...
This needs discussion.

by **t1mm01994** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:36 pm UTC

I think you're missing the point that one of the neighbours is scum.
If mafia already are neighbours, they have no advantage.
If mafia had one person between them, it would be intensely stupid to kill him as either one of scum will get killed.
If scum have 2 people between them, and suddenly, 2 neighbours die, that should bring reasonable suspicion to the table.

So, I suggest you remove the FoS away from me, at once.

by **t1mm01994** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:45 pm UTC

EBWOP: I claim Numerical Neighbour :3

by **Vieto** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:43 pm UTC

I have to agree about revealing neighbors (hey, I have to earn that FoS!). It gives the town more information and things to talk about day 1, it mandates that one of the 2 people neighboring the nk must be the killer (which is more information than if we didn't know the murdered player's neighbors), and it also enables doctors and townies with roles to have a better idea about which way to heal/cop. That, and t1mm makes a good point.

Now, it should be noted that you can always claim your neighbor was murdered the next day (which would put you and your current neighbor in the spotlight), but if the mafia did join from the kill that night, then nobody would claim their neighbor was murdered and we would still have no suspects. In addition, if we lynch a townie today, we would have to lynch mafia on D2 and D3 or we will lose unless someone gets lucky with a night action, so the more information we get, and the harder we make it for the mafia to stay hidden and/or lie, the better

also, I was wondering if this was the case: Do the mafia know who their partner in crime is?

by **ConMan** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:47 pm UTC

Vieto wrote:Do the mafia know who their partner in crime is?

Yes. Mafia are aware of each other, but cannot communicate directly unless neighbours.

by **TheMaskedGecko** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:58 pm UTC

Are we certain that scum can only kill neighbours or is that just speculation? Also, FoSing everyone who's posted makes as much sense as a drunken haddock with a speech impediment. I'm calling Poe's law on that.
As far as postmortem neighbour claiming goes, I dont see many problems. Assuming one lynch, one mafia, on nightkill we'll have four town left and one scum, everyone having two neighbours to confirm the order, meaning any discrepancy should be obvious.
It does become trickier if there ae two scum, as the rules hint. Any discrepancies in the order would still show up but they could make it unclear who's lying.
Doubt there'd be three scum, that'd be very hard to beat. Same goes for multiple nightkills. Could still happen. But I doubt it.
My guess would be two scum, one nightkill (the least well known of the shock vids). That seems most balanced to me. But maybe someone more experienced than me would be better placed to comment on that.

by **TheMaskedGecko** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:07 pm UTC

Ninja'd by vieto. I'm assuming that when the magic portals closes the gap left by a deadman, the two new neighbours get informed. If one of them lies, then it'll make them both look scummy. As dodgy regimes the world over say 'the innocent have nothing to fear'.

And as we're doing alliterative role claiming, I'll have either nautical neighbour or nasally-nearly-nay-known-neo-nazi neighbour.

by **Mostlynormal** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:41 pm UTC

I claim Non-Sequitur Seaweed

I really don't think that scum's nightkill is restricted to their neighbors. Right now it's possible that even town has an ability that can go past neighbors (The rules said most night actions affect neighbors, and I think the Nocturnal Neighbor might be able to do that), so I don't see why the mafia, who have traditionally been cheating creatures of the night, should be restricted to killing neighbors. Especially because only one mafia gets to chose the kill (since they can't necesarily communicate), so that means they'd be restricted to two choices for the kill.

At first I though it was possible that the scum were definitely neighbors, which would make claiming good because it would reduce our possible scumteams from 21 to 7. I was going to ask about that, but Con Man already answered it implicitly. Because of that, I see no reason at all to claim. The scum wants to be able to talk to each other, and claiming would allow them to find the shorstest path to accomplishing that. Also, It just give the scum information that we don't want them to have. Since most town abilities seem to work on neighbors, it would help them deduce power roles by knowing neighbors (like if their kill got blocked then either their target probably has a doctor nieghbor or they have a RB neighbor.). I really don't think scum could be so limited as to have to kill neighbors, so it wouldn't help us at all.

As for rolespec, I think the Noisy Neighbor might have something like some of their PM's get broadcasted to random people, or any night actions targeting them are "heard" by their neighbors.

Nosy neighbor is probably some kind of investigative role, but for some reason the wording makes watcher sound most appropriate. It's also possible that they "eavesdrop" on their neighbor's other PM's or something.

Nocturnal neighbor is weird. It might be investigative but I doubt it since the Nosy Neighbor probably is. Since most neighbors have night actions, it's even possible that they have a day action of some kind. It might be untargetable (they're out and about during the night so you won't find them home) or maybe a vig role (they're creatures of the night, like the mafia), but in that case I think they would also be able to target anybody, not just neighbors, because being nocturnal they'd be out and about.

by **BoomFrog** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:05 am UTC

I'm reading through the thread and have so much to say, and then BAM! MN comes in and says most of it for me. *shakes fist* +1 towniness point though. I don't think we should map out the neighborhood today. It can be done fairly reliably tomorrow and doing it today will only give scum more info for the N1 kill.

Anyway, I really don't get where the idea that "Nasty Neighbors" can only kill their neighbors. This seems to have been speculated and then accepted as fact far too quickly. Which makes me think that the acceptors are scum trying to get bad info accepted as fact. Or scum who confused their private info with public info that everyone knew already. Either way: scum. Let's see who that was...

mpolo wrote:It occurred to me that knowing the topology of the street (i.e. compiling a neighbor list) could be extremely useful, especially if the scum kill can only go against neighbors. Then, on reveal of the the kill victim, we would have one mafia identified (at 50% accuracy, of course).

How would we have 50% accuracy identifying scum unless we were 100% sure that scum have to kill neighbors?

t1mm01994 wrote:The problem with not neighbourclaiming is that if nks can only go down on neighbours, noone will claim to be neighbour because that would give you a 50% chance of being lynched for scum. If all is claimed in advance, we can very easily tell who the neighbours are, and as such who is likely scum.

Town wouldn't know if scum can only kill neighbors so how would town know to be afraid to claim?

roband wrote:No, we shouldn't claim. If we do, scum know who they need to kill to be able to night chat with each other, right?

How did you know that scum couldn't nightchat unless they are neighbors? I can't see where Conman said that until after your post.

t1mm01994 wrote:If mafia had one person between them, it would be intensely stupid to kill him as either one of scum will get killed.

Now your taking that mafia are restricted to killing a neighbor as an assumed fact. Why so confident?

Vieto wrote:it mandates that one of the 2 people neighboring the nk must be the killer

Mandates? When did this become fact?

TheMaskedGecko wrote:Are we certain that scum can only kill neighbours or is that just speculation?

Yeay! +townie points for talking sense.

Mostlynormal wrote:I really don't think that scum's nightkill is restricted to their neighbors.

Ditto

I'm thinking one or even two of Roband, t1mm, and Vieto are scum. I'd like to hear people's explanations of their thinking here.

by **roband** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:20 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
roband wrote:No, we shouldn't claim. If we do, scum know who they need to kill to be able to night chat with each other, right?
How did you know that scum couldn't nightchat unless they are neighbors? I can't see where Conman said that until after your post.

Oh, I was basing that on details ConMan gave when the game was originally suggested. I'm fairly certain he said that all roles can only use their powers on their neighbours - or suggested it enough for me to understand it as that anyway.

It kinda makes sense, you know it wouldn't make scum as obvious as you might think - even after 2 NKs, there could still be 4 people who could be scum (obviously there could only be 4 townies alive after 2 NKs, if we no-lynch, but I'm making a mathematical point here - or something).

In fact, letting scum kill anyone kinda seems overpowered, based on the calculations for if they're limited to just neighbours.

That said, I can see that nowhere has it been confirmed that scum can only kill their neighbours. I wouldn't say for sure either way though, unless we get confirmation from the mod.

Care to share?

by **roband** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:24 am UTC

In the signup post:

Subject: Sign-ups (for PLAYERS)

Special mechanics: Everyone will be randomly placed into houses on the street (not determined by sign-up number). Most powers will tend to have an effect only on direct neighbours (amazingly enough, if someone dies both their neighbours suddenly find themselves next to each other!).

Ok, so only MOST powers work on direct neighbours. Not all. My mistake.

by **t1mm01994** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:05 am UTC

t1mm01994 wrote: ...and given that mpolo is right about the NK mechanics...

I don't see the "certainty" in that. I only see the willingness to assume something that someone else had proposed, because it sounds reasonable through signup post. After that, I forgot to add the spec disclaimer, for which I'm sorry.

Apart from that, I don't have any evidence so far that it isn't neighbour-only... How can you be so certain that it isn't?

So, current standing: if neighbour of BF, MN or TMG dies, take a close look at them.
Apart from that, BF, why isn't mpolo listed in the probable scumlist? He suggested it in the first place...
And roband, whatup @ nightchat statement?

by **roband** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:09 am UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:And roband, whatup @ nightchat statement?

Like I said, I read the following a long time ago:

Most powers will tend to have an effect only on direct neighbours

And misremembered it as ALL powers. Nightchat is a power, right?

I don't see the problem, or how I haven't answered that already.

by **t1mm01994** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:50 am UTC

Ah, never mind, thought that part was about the nightkill.. but yes, communication would fall under that as well.

by **roband** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:54 am UTC

Nightchat and nightkill are both powers, so I thought it covered both.

It's strange that BF questions mpolo, me, Tim and Vieto, but then only says that me, Tim or Vieto are scum.

BF - did you feel mpolo's mistake was not as serious as my own, or is there a different reason you want to be able to question him but not add more suspicion?

by **TheMaskedGecko** » Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:03 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:So, current standing: if neighbour of BF, MN or TMG dies, take a close look at them.

Beyond the common sense idea that if anyone's neighbour dies we should look at them, what is that supposed to mean? Is it just because we're not convinced that scum are limited to neighbour killing? The three of us make up half the game. The chances of anyone dying and not being the neighbour of at least one of us are very low.I hate to point FoS this early but that's a very fishy comment...

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