Amy's Surprise Game [OVER - Sapphire Scrooge Win]

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby greenlover » Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:24 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:greenlover
Spoiler:
Roband votes for him and I agree that GL is a good lynch. Greenlover has been very hesitant to offer opinion which I think is a scumtell at this point.

From what I can glean from recent posts, he trusts Krong's claim, thinks I look suspicious, thinks there isn't much argument against FAOT and wei, thinks roband is confirmed town, and... that's it? Not much to go on...

I leave, promising to provide an opinion when I get back, and I now discover that making that promise instead of just staying quiet is a scum tell? Really? :roll:

Anyway, I guess making this post is just another scum tell 'cause I don't have the time currently to elaborate on my suspicions. In short order, I'm suspicious of Misnomer and AdamH. I'll elaborate whenever I get the time (tonight, probably).
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Misnomer » Tue Jan 10, 2012 7:10 pm UTC

As promised...

Analysis: Angua

Day 1
#1 - Discusses the two scum groups, and expresses hope that they'll be fighting each other. Questions Roband's number references, and declines to speculate on the setup, pleading a lack of experience. Neutral
#2 - Describes a lot of things as odd, without going into much detail - admittedly though, some of the stuff (like FOAT's request), was indeed odd. Thinks scum teams of 4 sounds plausible. Neutral
#3 - Brief post discussing sheep and FAOT's restriction. Neutral
#4 - Points out that b.i.o is not a confirmed townie. Sharp, but doesn't really say much about alignment either way. Neutral
#5 - Insists that 'no bastardy' confirms herself and Wei as townies. Potentially suspicious
#6 - Unstructed farm spec. Neutral
#7 - Defends assumption of Wei's towniness. Discusses various other players, but doesn't make any definite statements about any of them. Votes for Roband on the basis of an unjustified vote for me. On balance, Neutral
#8 - Rebuffs mav. Neutral
#9 - Apologies for lack of clarity. Neutral

Day 2
#10 - Haze/no-kill spec - points out it's weird. Promises a proper analysis to come. Neutral
#11 - Produces a vote analysis, but doesn't draw any conclusions from it. Asks for more content from b.i.o. Neutral
#12 - Haze-spec. Seems a bit like clutching a straws. Neutral
#13 - Said that they would save Roband from the lynch if they could, but they can't, which seems a little pointless. Clarifies why he finds Roband's supicion of me weird. Neutral
#14 - Denies attempting to redirect attention away from me. Neutral
#15 - Does an analysis of Wei and finds him townie. The analysis itself is reasonably well justified, but again eyebrows are raised in light of Wei's flip. Potentially suspicious
#16 - Some more straw-ish colour spec. Neutral
#17 - Check in post. N/A
#18 - Apology/Check in post. N/A
#19 - Rejects the idea that she and wei are godfathers - mildly suspicious, but I suppose if she's town this response is only natural. Votes t1mm for the sake of voting, which pings somewhat. Slightly scummy
#20 - Votes for Roband because Roband is going after Wei. I reckon I'm going to go with neutral here, because if she was town, this is probably a sensible course of action (and Roband was acting pretty scummy). Neutral
#21 - Sticks with Roband vote, rejects mason claim. At the risk of sounding reverse anti-OMGUS*-y I'm going to call this slightly townie.

Day 3
#22 - Questions Roband's reaction to his confirmed town status. Critical of b.i.o. No longer sure about Wei, given prospect of potential recruits. Neutral
#23 - Attacks b.i.o's accusation that she's scum. To be expected, therefore Neutral.
#24 - Apology/Check in post. N/A
#25 - Apology/Check in post. N/A
#26 - Reacts to the reveal. Opening section seems overly-surprised and ignorant to me, but it's possibly genuine. More apology. Speculates that b.i.o may return. Inconclusive speculation at night/day events. I'm going to call this slightly scummy.


So, the verdict? It's a whole load of unreadable neutral. :|

The main thing that flags up suspicion is the Wei link, and it strikes me that the evidence could support one of two theories.
1) Angua is town, and assumed (perhaps too readily) that this meant Wei was as well.
2) Angua is scum, suspected that Wei was rival scum, and didn't want Wei dead because it would heap suspicion upon her when he flipped.

Either's plausible. However, I think the latter is more likely, because of one question we need to take into account: namely, why were the two players named as confirmed townie in the OP not killed by scum?

Under scenario 1, it's reasonable to speculate that Wei may have assumed Angua was also scum, and therefore wanted to avoid casting suspicion on himself by having her killed. However, why would the other scum team not have struck? From their perspective, here were two players, who either way were from opposing factions, who were less likely to be lynched due to being called town in the OP. It makes no sense for them not try and kill them.

Under scenario 2, however, we have a balance of power situation. Because neither Wei nor Angua wants supicion cast upon them, they advise their teams not to kill the other. The situation lasts in place until Wei gets modkilled.


Of the two scenarios, the second sounds far more likely to me. I'm going to throw out an early vote here I think.

Vote: Angua



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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Adam H » Tue Jan 10, 2012 7:39 pm UTC

Yay for misnomer! I can agree with that assessment.

greenlover wrote:I leave, promising to provide an opinion when I get back, and I now discover that making that promise instead of just staying quiet is a scum tell? Really? :roll:
Actually, yes, that's what I think. It's not that time-consuming to type what you're thinking. But it IS time-consuming to think of a false opinion that fits your scum agenda and figure out how to word it properly.

But apparently I am completely inept at scumhunting, if that makes you feel any better.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby webby » Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:20 pm UTC

Yeah, I agree with the line of reasoning that says that the most likely reason the 'confirmed' townies wouldn't be killed would be if there was one on each scum team. That makes Angua a good lynch.

The current numbers are 2 of one scum team, 1 of the other, 6 townies/independents, except that one of those 9 players is 'presumed dead'. I think it's likely that b.i.o was responsible for Krong's death. b.i.o was presumed dead, b.i.o and Krong had been attacking each other pretty strongly the previous day and then Krong turns up dead, killed by a ghost?

This gives me a vague suspicion that b.i.o belongs (or belonged?) to the non-Krong scum faction, but I guess such a power isn't out of the question as town.

So that leaves me with:

Scum faction purple:
infina (confirmed by death)
Angua (likely)
b.i.o (possibly)

Scum faction sapphire:
Krong (confirmed by death)
weiyaoli (confirmed by death)
+ one other

Eventually I'll go see what links there are between players, but it seems we're in quite a good position here if we're right about Angua.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Angua » Wed Jan 11, 2012 11:56 am UTC

Adam H wrote:
Spoiler:
Woohoo what a turn around!

The opening flavor talks about the "purple punks" and the "sapphire scrooges". So scrooge doesn't mean anything other than indicating the alignment, I assume.

We'll see if anything else interesting happens today, but Angua definitely looks worthy of a lynch. I doubt the sapphire scrooges have a culting mechanism since they're supposed to be the entrenched mafia group. It was bio who suggested that wei and angua are the heads of the two mafia groups, which at this point seems likely. Although if bio comes back purple punk, that would make me feel much better about angua... Might be worth waiting to see, depending on if we have another good lynch target.

Here's a couple analyses on the two most suspicious players, IMO:

Angua[spoiler]Hasn't posted much in the last 2 weeks due to internet problems. Thinks if wei and him were godfathers, that would make scum OP. Doesn't vouch for wei - hints that if wei were scum, he must have been culted. Completely misunderstands Krong's role. Says that if t1mm and roband were masons, town would be OP. Votes roband because roband voted for wei, and angua thinks t1mm was mind controlled into defending roband.

My shaky conclusions: Angua figured that wei is scum, and when wei dies he'll look bad. Therefore he wanted to make it seem like wei was culted rather than started as scum. He's probably not Sapphire since he misunderstood krong's role when I thought it was pretty obvious. He says that masons would make town OP, but then once t1mm comes back mason, he says that scum would be OP if wei and him were godfathers. And finally, he votes roband and comes up with what I think is an absurd reason for doing so (mind control?).

As an aside, it's kind of hilarious (not to make light of your personal problems! I feel for you!) how many excuses he gives for not posting. Since December 14, I count 7 out of 11 posts in which he explains why he hasn't posted recently. It's almost enough to make me think it's a posting restriction!

greenlover
Spoiler:
Roband votes for him and I agree that GL is a good lynch. Greenlover has been very hesitant to offer opinion which I think is a scumtell at this point.

From what I can glean from recent posts, he trusts Krong's claim, thinks I look suspicious, thinks there isn't much argument against FAOT and wei, thinks roband is confirmed town, and... that's it? Not much to go on...

Whoops, it might be time to prod/kick mavkatl. His last post was December 12.[/spoiler]
Ok, for one, you try and get your internet sorted on a small caribbean island around the holidays (which, btw meant two 4-day weekends in a row - I kid you not!) while doing a full time job (which included working during said holidays). I tried to check in because I'm often quite a chatty player, and I didn't want to be modkilled for not posting anything at all.

Secondly, it's she

thirdly- I think my 'misunderstanding' of Krong's role (by which I'm assuming you meant when they said that actions to bf had been redirected to adam h was pretty understandable as that bus role allows you to switch two people (someone had it in Mulanmafia). Also, I would have thought that a watcher would only see what happened to one person, and not see all the switching, but obviously the insomniac role had some larger scope.

Fourthly, I think I haven't been killed by scum because 1) if wei was scum they couldn't be sure that I wasn't scum, so the sapphires killing me wouldn't be good, and 2) all the speculation about us being not being confirmed town was useful to the purples who probably didn't know that wei was scum. I probably did err in assuming that we both had the same role because amy linked us together in the opening flavour.

Fifthly, Can I point out that wei wasn't a godfather - and the position against us being godfathers was that having a confirmed town who comes up town to cops is insanely strong.

Now that wei is gone, the sapphires will probably nk me tonight as for them I'm either town or purple (and considering what wei turned out to be, probably purple in their minds), and either is good for them (I still think the purples get some use out of me wine-wise by keeping me around). I thought misnomer's assessment of me was pretty fair, so I'll let people decide what they think. Just bear in mind that some of the scummy tells with me saying we're actually town can be explained by me actually being town.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Adam H » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:31 pm UTC

Angua wrote:Secondly, it's she
Fervent apologies!
Angua wrote:thirdly- I think my 'misunderstanding' of Krong's role...
I was pointing out that you are probably not sapphire. But you can argue that point if you want. :)
Angua wrote:Fifthly, Can I point out that wei wasn't a godfather
I might be over-analyzing this, but I think you just screwed up big time here. We don't know that wei wasn't a godfather. But if you were a non-godfather mafia, you'd assume that wei is the same role as you.
Angua wrote:Now that wei is gone, the sapphires will probably nk me tonight as for them I'm either town or purple
Bah, if we don't lynch you because we think that you'll be nked, what happens when you aren't nked? To the sapphires, we're ALL town or purple...

Vote: Angua

webby wrote:The current numbers are 2 of one scum team, 1 of the other, 6 townies/independents, except that one of those 9 players is 'presumed dead'.
There were 3 scum on each scum team? Major FoS: webby
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Sungura » Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:59 pm UTC

A ghost arises!

ForAllOfThis wrote:Am I still in ghost form? If I am, send the following message:

FAOT here. I'm a ghost. I might have a vote, I might not. Regardless I'm not telling any of you. Still thinking Adam H is scum (probably sapphire, think him and Wei were bandwagoning on Tim the day before I died). Stuff like this:

Adam H wrote:But apparently I am completely inept at scumhunting, if that makes you feel any better.


pings me no end as well. It's a hidden admission of guilt, trying to cover up the fact he's constantly voting for townie players to be lynched. I've seen nothing thats changed my opinion of him since I last voted. As my suspicion of Adam H still lingers, the chumminess of him and Misnomer makes me slightly suspicous of Misnomer as well and it might be something

Oh yea I wasn't going to tell you whether or not I have a vote?

Vote: Adam H

I guess you know now. The only way I can confirm I'm me is shedding the details of my role. I was a 4-channer, town. I was NK and Lynch immune as long as I was mentioned once a day (which was my special daily requirement). I mentioned it to try to get you to mention me (and it worked). I have no idea how I died the day I did, might be some special power so watch out (I wasn't given any specifics on it)!
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Sungura » Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:01 am UTC

Votals:
2 - Angua (misnomer, adam H)
1 - Adam H (FAOT)
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:03 am UTC

Hey guys sorry I've been away so long. I do remember I'm in this game still.

So anyway... I think FOAT's message is clearly genuine seeing as he has a vote in the vtotals. Still I'll have to do a reread to see if I agree with his assessment, I think I don't. A lot will be revealed if we lynch Angua.

In the meantime though I think I've figured out, "the surprise". Does anyone else think they see something VERY interesting in this last day? Don't say what it is, just raise your hand if you see it. I want to see who sees it and who doesn't. If no one else sees it I might just be crazy. Speaking of crazy I think I totally trust b.i.o. now...

*raises hand and looks around expectantly*
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Angua » Fri Jan 13, 2012 11:57 am UTC

I've had an idea of what the surprise might be - I wasn't sure before but now FaoT has had a ghost message, I'm much more sure.

With wei being a godfather - shouldn't that have been revealed when they died (that's when roles are revealed, no?).
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Misnomer » Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:57 pm UTC

Angua - with the exception of the roband-t1mm masonry, we've not had any role revealed upon death so far.

BF - I think I know what you're referring to (it certainly seems a surprising feature to me, at any rate).

Really not sure what to make of FAOT's ghostliness. On the one hand, something just seems a little off about it - the sentence structure doesn't flow like it normally does, and I don't think I've ever heard him use the word chumminess... on the flip side though, while I can imagine a role that disguises itself as other dead players, I cannot think what on earth the possible use would be it: there's no reason why anybody would want to impersonate an undead FAOT.

At any rate, it's not immediately relevant. I have seen nothing to shake my earlier conclusions, and so shall therefore leave my vote on Angua.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 4]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:43 pm UTC

Well, I'm still lost. I'm probably overthinking things. I have no idea whats going on.

BF, you say you trust bio. Is that because of the possibility that they killed Krong? I don't believe that clears them, and if they were still around, I would vote for them. I still think bio is scum.

It seems that there are a few ghosts going around. mpolo, FAOT and bio all seem to be ghosts, and I'd say its likely Electrichaze had some kind of ghost ability.

At this stage i'm inclined to believe FAOT's message, and consider it likely that adam is scum. Yes, angua could be scum, but most of the evidence is circumstantial, and it would be an easy target for scum. The way Adam went about it does smell scummy to me.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Night 4]

Postby Sungura » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:02 am UTC

And with the town all napping, the votes of only three people were cast, but deadline came, and a lynch was made. Angua was dragged kicking and screaming claiming innocence the entire way to the gallows. But it made no difference, she was hanged.

Angua is dead

N4 stars now, and ends Mon night/Tuesday morning something like that.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Night 4]

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:29 am UTC

Interesting, I'm glad I'm not crazy at least. I'd like to hear everyone's response before I reveal more.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Night 4]

Postby Sungura » Sun Jan 15, 2012 8:08 pm UTC

it is night please do not talk
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Night 4]

Postby Sungura » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:10 pm UTC

The sun arose and yet again on this small town to much screaming and death. AdamH was found dead with a bag around his head. He had suffocated. Boomfrog was just nowhere to be found, someone had heard him scream during the night but no body was left just a presence felt in his home. Matkavl was found lying in a pool of blood, cards scattered about her with questions on them.

As folks gathered in the town square to chat about the events, the ghost of faot arose, hurling insults at his killer to no avail as he burst into a million ghostly pieces falling silent once and for all.


Adam H is dead, mafia purple punk
FAOT is dead, town
matkavl is dead, mason, town
boomfrog is dead?

Angua was town

Day 5 starts now. It ends sometime Saturday.
Last edited by Sungura on Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:15 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Night 4]

Postby roband » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:11 pm UTC

pssst, the title still says night :)
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Sungura » Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:16 pm UTC

I write the post first before updating the OP, sorry :P
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Misnomer » Mon Jan 16, 2012 5:37 pm UTC

From the OP:
Sungura wrote:Players in this game:
Gopher of Pern
weiyaoli Mafia, sapphire scrooge
mpoloLynched Day 3, town
Angua Lynched Day 4, town
webby
ForAllOfThis killed N2, town
Adam H killed N4, purple punk mafia
Makatvl killed N4, town - mason
BoomFrog killed N4
Misnomer
Krong Killed D4, sapphire scrooge mafia
bio killed night 3
Gojoe Modkilled
infina killed N2, purple punk mafia
roband killed N3, town - mason
greenlover
ElectricHaze Lynched Day 1, town
t1mm01994 Lynched Day 2, town - mason

Now that's interesting. Working on the assumption that Amy doens't lie, BF and bio have both been killed, but neither is dead. Anyone know if FAOT showed up on this list as killed/non-dead yesterday?

Angua was town, so clearly my reasoning was flawed - looking back at it, I probably shouldn't have assumed that scum would behave rationally. 3 kills last night, 2 of which are presumably the scum faction kills, which leaves an illusive third which I suspect is probably linked to a specific role (and may indeed be the additional kill of one the surviving scum).

Now that means we've got 4 living players remaining, and three kills out there. I suspect this means we're at MYLO, and it might possibly be NL territory. I'll run through the scenarios properly when I have more time.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Jan 16, 2012 9:31 pm UTC

Myself, Webby, Misnomer, Greenlover. bio and BF are ghosts.

Very likely one of each scum team still in play. I'm pretty sure bio is one of them. Possibly 3 kills, which means either SK, or Vig. Hopefully Vig, otherwise there isn't much town can do to win at this stage, unless ghosts still count as living.

I guess I'll do a bit of a player analysis on the 3 others that are left.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby webby » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:26 am UTC

There were three nightkills (not counting FAOT who was a ghost who died last night). That suggests there is very likely either a Serial Killer or a Vig around. I reckon b.i.o is likely purple scum and Boomfrog is likely town.

If we stick with the three scum in each team theory, that means that of the four non-ghost players still in the game, there's likely one scum (probably linked with Krong and weiyaoli). That leaves makes it 3-1 or 2-1-1 with a serial killer.

At 3-1, barring any special powers, we would normally No Lynch.

At 2-1-1, barring any special powers, our best bet is to lynch a townie (counter-intuitive, yes, but if we lynch scum we lose at 1-1 and if we no lynch then the only way we win is if the two scum hit each other, which is more likely at 1-1-1 than 2-1-1).

Your thoughts? I think we should also wait a bit to see whether the ghosts do anything.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby greenlover » Tue Jan 17, 2012 2:37 pm UTC

webby wrote:At 2-1-1, barring any special powers, our best bet is to lynch a townie (counter-intuitive, yes, but if we lynch scum we lose at 1-1 and if we no lynch then the only way we win is if the two scum hit each other, which is more likely at 1-1-1 than 2-1-1).

Eh, this plan assumes that the independent/vig did just have a one shot kill. Considering that this is the first time that there have been three night kills (I think...?), it isn't too horribly unlikely.

However, on the other hand, as FAOT showed us yesterday, apparently ghosts can have kills. So, in whatever we decided to do, we shouldn't factor out the possibility of either b.i.o. or BF throwing out a kill from beyond the grave.

And, since there are only three players left, I'll see if I can't scratch up some analysis in a bit...
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:11 am UTC

greenlover wrote:
webby wrote:At 2-1-1, barring any special powers, our best bet is to lynch a townie (counter-intuitive, yes, but if we lynch scum we lose at 1-1 and if we no lynch then the only way we win is if the two scum hit each other, which is more likely at 1-1-1 than 2-1-1).

Eh, this plan assumes that the independent/vig did just have a one shot kill. Considering that this is the first time that there have been three night kills (I think...?), it isn't too horribly unlikely.

However, on the other hand, as FAOT showed us yesterday, apparently ghosts can have kills. So, in whatever we decided to do, we shouldn't factor out the possibility of either b.i.o. or BF throwing out a kill from beyond the grave.

And, since there are only three players left, I'll see if I can't scratch up some analysis in a bit...


Unless I'm mistaken, theres 4 left, plus 2 ghosts.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby greenlover » Wed Jan 18, 2012 3:03 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Unless I'm mistaken, theres 4 left, plus 2 ghosts.

Very true. I meant three players left to analyse (since, obviously, I'm not going to analyse myself.).
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:12 am UTC

Greenlover:

First post, while a little late, is reasonable. Dislikes the cult idea. Dislikes FAOT's claim, but doesn't see it as scummy. Only post for day 1

Second post, says bio is acting strangely, explains feelings for bio, and calls roband out. Again, only post for the day.

Third post, defends me, pokes at bio, thinks FAOT and roband are town, weiy neutral, but Adam suspicious.

4th post, confused at BF, trusts Krongs claim, and is unsure on Adam, and doesnt understand mpolo under suspicion.

5th post, still doesnt understand mpolo lynch, has some nagging suspicions, but doesnt elaborate. Last post of day 3

6th post, is angered that they're under suspicion, but claims their suspicious of misnomer and adam. Only post of day 4.

And that brings us up to today. Very lurky. 6 posts in 4 days? I think it is telling that they didn't voice their suspicions on day 3. Looking good for a lynch here, but I will look into the others first.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby webby » Fri Jan 20, 2012 10:02 am UTC

Ok, here are my (relatively brief) thoughts:
Greenlover - has said nothing controversial all game. Mostly just occasionally given opinions on players, but they've been relatively weak and mostly 'i think ... is not scum' rather than actually picking a lynch target. Has made no votes all game. Possible serial killer tell, trying not to offend people. Overall, not enough to tell.

Gopher of Pern:
- Notes in his first post that there are likely plenty of independents based on Amy's mod style. We haven't seen any indies come up as far as I can tell?
- FOSed FAOT for suggesting that the scum teams were 3/3. Mild scumtell given that it now seems the teams are probably 3/3, so the FOS is marginally more likely to have come from GoP knowing FAOT was right.
- Analysis post where he (justifiably in my opinion) votes for tim with a strong FOS on Adam H. This post feels townie.
- Day 3 - Makes what I think is a reasonable vote on b.i.o.
- Not really that much of interest since.

If I had to make a guess at what happened last night - GoP has felt Adam H is scummy all game. GoP is part of Team Magenta and Team Purple had two players left and was therefore the priority for killing over town. GoP therefore killed Adam H. I know that's only circumstantial evidence, but if I don't find anything better, that's going to have to be enough. We also have a likely kill for him from night 3 - he found b.i.o suspicious, so he killed b.i.o.

Misnomer:
I'll do Misnomer later, but on a skim through I've found him generally reasonable.

So yeah - my opinions:
I think GoP is probably Magenta scum.
I think Greenlover is either Serial Killer or town.
I think Misnomer is probably town.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Sungura » Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:49 pm UTC

Guys you have one day....get on with the lynching.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:58 pm UTC

Vote: Greenlover

I'm going to full claim here. I dont see my power as being very useful from now.

I'm a radio nerd, I get snippets of conversation at night. This is why I have a feeling that bio is scum, due to some of the messages I've been receiving. I was unsure at first, especially when it came out that there are masons involved, but I'm pretty confident about bio.

I also know that there is/was a ghostbuster on the scum team. And someone has a negative vote as well.

Webby, I find your analysis reasonable, but then I always do, even if it is wrong. I admit I haven't played my best here. The GL vote is so something happens, and they have contributed the least.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby greenlover » Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:31 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm going to full claim here. I dont see my power as being very useful from now.

I'm a radio nerd, I get snippets of conversation at night. This is why I have a feeling that bio is scum, due to some of the messages I've been receiving. I was unsure at first, especially when it came out that there are masons involved, but I'm pretty confident about bio.

I also know that there is/was a ghostbuster on the scum team. And someone has a negative vote as well.

This claim really pings me, given that there's nothing here that you wouldn't know if you were mafia.

And I...don't really know who to vote for. I've tried to start to analyse people several times now, but for some reason (as its been all game) I can't get my mind around this game. Webby seems pretty towny, and so does Misnomor on a reread. And GoP has made some good points, I think, aside from that claim of his. So, I'm going to vote a self preservation vote.

Vote: GoP
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Misnomer » Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:52 am UTC

Dammit, completely forgot about this.

GoP's claim is surprisingly detailed, moreso than I would expect from a falseclaim, and that makes it believable.

Which leaves a choice between Webby and GL. I'm actually inclined to agree with Webby's analysis on GL - his inactivity reads far more like possible sk than scum.

But if GoP is town, and GL isn't scum, that leaves Webby as the remaining living scum member (assuming b.i.o belongs to the other faction).

Looking back at Webby's last post, I was surprised to see him refer to a Team Purple and a 'Team Magenta'. The second faction isn't magenta at all - they're sapphire. The more I think about it, the more that I suspect that this wasn't just an innocent mistake. I think this was a deliberate attempt by Webby to make himself appear non-scummy by getting the teamname wrong.

I think I've got to vote for Webby here. Ah well, at least a tie might flush out that negative vote.

Vote: Webby
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby greenlover » Sat Jan 21, 2012 5:04 am UTC

So, I got this message from bio, via the mod:

bio wrote:Hello, this is your friendly neighborhood soon-to-be-actually-dead ghost. Happily, I get to send some messages out before I'm completely gone. If you are town like I hope you are, I encourage you to post this message verbatim in thread.

My role was one-shot vig ghost. (I am town. I was comfortable playing an insane person because I knew I could be useful dead, too.) I killed Krong. I also had a one-shot message power. After I use this message, I will be completely dead.

I had no night talking ability, and have not talked to anyone at night, so I believe that GoP is lying about receiving information about me, which suggests to me that he's likely scum, but I'm not 100% sure. He's second on my list. (webby and greenlover are third and fourth, respectively.)

At the top of my scum list is Misnomer. I'd put *very* good odds on Misnomer being scum right now. Probably sapphire scrooge, like Krong and weiy. He agreed with Krong when Krong was making terrible arguments, and didn't like my vote for weiy. And then he did a "yay town" thing when I killed Krong and Krong turned up scum.

I suggest lynching Misnomer. Even if I'm lying about being town and am actually scum on the other side, this is a good move for everybody except misnomer (assuming I'm right about him being scum). Every other faction benefits from killing someone who's scum today, since it means one less kill tonight.


This... seems better than a self preservation vote, at this point. Thus,

unvote
Vote: Misnomer
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Misnomer » Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:16 pm UTC

Urgh, self-preservation vote it is.

Unvote
Vote: greenlover


Full cards-on-the-table post to follow immediately, but I wanted this out there ASAP.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby webby » Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:54 pm UTC

I'm not sure what to make of the last few posts, I don't think they really change my mind. b.i.o seems to have no more information than the rest of us. GoP's radar power, if he's telling the truth, doesn't make him seem any more or less scummy, it's a power that any alignment could have.

Currently it's 2 votes to 1 for greenlover over Misnomer. I can't stay up to wait for Misnomer's 'full cards on the table' post (it's late here and I just got home), but assuming deadline doesn't hit, I'll consider it in the morning.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Misnomer » Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:26 pm UTC

Right, so let's take a look at this ghostliness then:

bio wrote:Hello, this is your friendly neighborhood soon-to-be-actually-dead ghost. Happily, I get to send some messages out before I'm completely gone. If you are town like I hope you are, I encourage you to post this message verbatim in thread.

My role was one-shot vig ghost. (I am town. I was comfortable playing an insane person because I knew I could be useful dead, too.) I killed Krong. I also had a one-shot message power. After I use this message, I will be completely dead.

This was apparently sent through the mod right, so this means she would obviously have been online to deal with this. However, we haven't had any flavour along the lines of b.i.o walking off into the sunset, and his name is still very much not crossed out on the player list.

I know in previous amy games her ghosts haven't been limited to one-shot kills - I think I'm right in saying whackabananna had a ghost that could kill every night after they died. I wouldn't be at all surprised if b.i.o was very much still around and able to influence this game.

I had no night talking ability, and have not talked to anyone at night, so I believe that GoP is lying about receiving information about me, which suggests to me that he's likely scum, but I'm not 100% sure. He's second on my list. (webby and greenlover are third and fourth, respectively.)

So b.i.o encounters a claim he believes to be utterly false, and an attempt to frame him... and he's unsure of that player's alignment? Weird.

At the top of my scum list is Misnomer. I'd put *very* good odds on Misnomer being scum right now. Probably sapphire scrooge, like Krong and weiy.

So I'm more scummy than the person who you believe has falsely accused you of being guilty? This has better be good.
He agreed with Krong when Krong was making terrible arguments,

...erm, this never actually happened. :|

Seriously, I've looked back through my posts and can't find a single thing the remotely resembles me agreeing with Krong's 'terrible arguments'. The closest I can come up with is a post in which I say Krong's roleclaim sounds believable - but believing a claim and agreeing to an argument are two fundamentally different things. At any rate, I stick by my decision at the time - Krong's claim was believable, and I was by far not the only one to accept it.

and didn't like my vote for weiy.

That's because it was entirely based upon a variant of "3rd vote = scum" logic, which as I've said before, is an utterly discredited form of scumhunting. A meta-analysis of me will reveal that I always reject votes like that one.

And then he did a "yay town" thing when I killed Krong and Krong turned up scum.

Oh, well next time something like that happens, I guess I'd better remain utterly poker-faced and not even comment on the fact that our position has spectacularly improved, right? :|

This is yet another discredited form of scumhunting. Yes, occasionally you can pick scumtells off of reactions to unexpected night events, but only when they tend to be suspiciously specific (eg. yay, congrats roleblocker for hitting scum!). Thinking you can find scum by jumping on every smiley face is just plain dumb.

I suggest lynching Misnomer.

b.i.o's case against me is laughable. It is based upon next to nothing, and yet he calls for my lynch over the person who he claims is lying about recieving chat logs? I don't have a clue what b.i.o is up to, but it can't be good.

Even if I'm lying about being town and am actually scum on the other side, this is a good move for everybody except misnomer (assuming I'm right about him being scum). Every other faction benefits from killing someone who's scum today, since it means one less kill tonight.

As I said earlier, I am not at all sure that we can take b.i.o's word that he'll now simply fade away. He's got some sort of sinister motive here in pointing the lynch at me (or away from somebody else?), albeit one which eludes me at present. He's wrong about the kill though - I don't have one, either at a personal or factional level.

I'm amazed that greenlover's taken b.i.o's orders unquestioningly. I don't know if he thought it would help reduce the chances of a lynch on him (how's that working out for you?) or whether he's just looking for a chance to completely abdicate responsibility for the fate of the game. Regardless, it's not changed my opinion on him.

I don't trust b.i.o one bit, so if anything this has strengthened my belief in GoP's claim. My opinion on Webby is therefore also unchanged.


"But Misnomer!" I hear you cry, "If you think Webby is scum, then surely if you're town your self-preservation shouldn't be important and you should still be voting for him?"

And indeed, you would be right: if I was town, this would be the case. Except I'm not town, I'm a survivor - and self-sacrifice is a luxury I cannot afford.

Claim: The Farmer

'sup folks, remember me? I was the one who caused all that fun back on Day 1 (and don't tell me seeing Roband impersonate a sheep wasn't fun). And I'll let you into another little secret: I've already gained a win.

My role is that of a survivor, but I had the opportunity to gain a win by other means. As soon as the game begun, I was able to force another player to act like an animal. If another player than guessed that player's animal, both myself and my target would gain a half-win. I could do this twice to gain a full win in total.

There was a snag however - once a player was released from the spell, they were told that I was the one who had done it to them in the first place. The idea was therefore that it would quickly splash me with so much wine that I would struggle to pull off the second half-win, let alone a survival to the endgame. As for why exactly Roband and Mav didn't out me, I have no idea - it'll be something we have to ask once the game's over.

But yeah, this is the endgame we now find ourselves in. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we're at 1-1-1-1, plus whatever those ghosts are up to. This could get messy...
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby greenlover » Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:00 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:I'm amazed that greenlover's taken b.i.o's orders unquestioningly. I don't know if he thought it would help reduce the chances of a lynch on him (how's that working out for you?) or whether he's just looking for a chance to completely abdicate responsibility for the fate of the game. Regardless, it's not changed my opinion on him.

Actually, I was more hoping to make you claim your role. Now that you have, I have little reason to keep voting for you. And, now that I think there's a pretty good chance you're an independent, the last scummy player left in my mind is GoP.

unvote
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 5]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Jan 21, 2012 7:59 pm UTC

Full disclosure: Me hunting bio was not a 100% thing. One of the pms I received N2 was about someone "screwing around, trying to be my normal self" The only person I could think of was bio. There was also a msg N1 about probably being nightkilled, which I took to be bio's, because of the lynch thing. At first I thought that made them town, with mason powers, but then I remembered that there are 2 scum groups. This wasn't conclusive proof, but I couldn't see who else would say those things.

I believe you Misnomer, which means either GL or webby have to go. The question is, was GL an unwitting stooge, or a willing ally of bio's? At this stage I would probably like to switch, but It will require both of us to vote for Webby, so I'll stick with GL
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Night 5]

Postby Sungura » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:57 am UTC

Votals
3 - gl (gop, bf, misnomer)
1 - Gopher (gl)
1 - misnomer (weeby)

Greenlover is lynched.

It is now N5. Night ends by Tuesday night EST (aka about 48 hrs)
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Night 5]

Postby Sungura » Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:59 pm UTC

Morning rose....peeps were dead

Gopher of Pern was found dead, as was Webby.

Sapphire Scrooges win.


GoP was town, as was greenlover. Webby was Purple Punk.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [OVER - Sapphire Scrooge Win]

Postby Sungura » Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:11 pm UTC

Roband has 1/2 win for being an animal
As does Matkvl

Misnomer has double win as he got two players to act like animals.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [OVER - Sapphire Scrooge Win]

Postby roband » Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:19 pm UTC

What alignment was Misnomer? Or am I missing it somewhere here?
The death of Lady Diana was also predicted by Moby Dick.
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