Neighbourhood Mafia - Game over: Mafia win!

[t1mm01994]

Isn't it funny, how D1 mpolo and BoomFrog were still defending eachother and now BoomFrog is still defending mpolo but mpolo is "leaning towards suspicion"?

Besides, why is it suddenly important to know the dead guy's neighbours? BF spent the last day trying to get roband lynched over assuming it and now BF wants to know the neighbours of the dead guy, because he /agrees with mpolo/ that it would be too perfect if tmg was robands only neighbour.
One more "just wondering" mpolo, BoomFrog, if you have nothing to fear, why the massive spread of wine?

[mpolo]

It's only funny from the point of view of scum playing with us.

BoomFrog made a new post. It is on the basis of perceived inconsistencies within this post (and the last couple from Mostlynormal) that my opinion is changing. You seem to be flailing, while Mostlynormal has actually been keeping his cool. His last couple of posts have made a good impression; whereas before my feeling was that you were had outed your scumbuddy with your closeness to Mostlynormal, I realize now that it is more likely that you used your knowledge as scum to correctly identify one townie with your "investigation".

[BoomFrog]

I'm not sure that TMG was so bad a target, as no one thought he was scummy at the end of day one. Also, for all I know, Boomfrog is scum who deliberately planned to shove that particular bit of delicious wine down our throats.

Okay, fair enough. I guess the neighbor kill thing only helps from my perspective. If t1mm or Roband are scum they slipped up D1 and assumed their privite info (that scum could only kill neighbors and didn't have special extra chat) was public info. From your perspective, if I am scum I've been spreading wine since D1 and getting away with it until now.

Your third point is sound, but if you are scum then mpolo only had the risk of being contradicted by T1mm, which was probably a risk he didn't mind taking at all, given we're at LYLO and all.

Suppose that T1mm had not activated a power and was not the nosy neighbor. Instead you or Roband were a nosy neighbor. Then Mpolo would be contradicting two people. Claiming watcher and tracker makes it even worse because perhaps T1mm's other neighbor targeted T1mm and now three people know for a fact that mpolo is lying. If it was a falseclaim, it would be an extreamly risky falseclaim. Scum don't have to take that risk unless they are desperate, and I don't see why you think an mpolo-BoomFrog scum team would be so desperate at the beginning of today.

Actually, the whole "you haven't contradicted mpolo" thing is very interesting. You have a power role (that affects both sides apparently) but mpolo didn't see you going out? I think we just caught scum in a contradiction.

While I'd have rather not had to reveal too many details of my role unless it's needed, my power is a one-shot which is why I didn't use it last night.

P.S. Don't use red, that's reserved for forum mods.

[t1mm01994]

Thing is, I'm quite desperate at the moment. I'm 99% positive I've located scum, but there's no-one backing me up at any time, because no-one is sure that I'm in the same faction as I am. Right now I've yet to see anything that doesn't easily fit into my theory of mpolo and BF as scumbuddies. But MN seems to need stuff written down in threefold and signed by all parties involved in order to be comfortable to act on it, and roband is currently not here. That leaves me a sad and desperate panda.

[Mostlynormal]

Suppose that T1mm had not activated a power and was not the nosy neighbor. Instead you or Roband were a nosy neighbor. Then Mpolo would be contradicting two people. Claiming watcher and tracker makes it even worse because perhaps T1mm's other neighbor targeted T1mm and now three people know for a fact that mpolo is lying. If it was a falseclaim, it would be an extreamly risky falseclaim. Scum don't have to take that risk unless they are desperate, and I don't see why you think an mpolo-BoomFrog scum team would be so desperate at the beginning of today.

Ok, you've convinced me that it was maybe pretty risky, but I'm not a big fan of arguments that go "well I would never do this as scum" because those arguments are what make scum decide to do those things. Like T1mm said, I need things signed in blood and confirmed by an oracle before I beleive it, so I'm going to rerserve judgement either way for now.

P.S. Don't use red, that's reserved for forum mods.

That's why I used orange /smartaleck
No but seriously, it's okay to use orange, right? I'll try to keep it in mind if it isn't.

Also, I have one question for T1mm. It's a very innocent question. It shouldn't be a hard one. After all, being a cop, you've had all night to think about it. Why did you cop me and not Mpolo?

[t1mm01994]

Well, I could cop either of you. Now let's look at the details:
- I cop you.
- You turn up scum. Since we privately chatted a bit, I was fairly sure that roband would be the same alignment as you, so that'd be done for who's scum. That would lead to a town win.
- You turn up town. I suspected the mpolo+BoomFrog tandem a little on beforehand, and I knew you did too. If you turned up town, the remaining trio of BF, roband and mpolo would contain 2 scum, of which mpolo surely was one. This is nice, because we have one scum and the BF+mpolo tandem was too good to pass up on. This would lead to a (quite certain) town win.
- I cop mpolo.
- He turns up scum. This is nice, because now I've could one scum, and BF was likely to be his partner in my opinion; slam-dunk case.
- He turns up town. Well.. Except for clearing one person as town, this gives very little information, just that you're scum. You didn't really have any special interactions with anyone whatsoever to determine who's your scumbuddy, so in this case we'd need our fair share of luck to clear out the remaining scum. 2:1 odds aren't the one I'd best go for if there are better odds at hand.

This is about as detailed a thought process as I can give to you. Only a hard question because the reason wasn't that simple. If you have any questions, feel free to ask.

[mpolo]

Umm... In the first half, you say that getting Mostlynormal as scum automagically gives you roband as scum, so this makes the decision easy. In the second half, copping me as town would also automagically get you Mostlynormal as scum, but now suddenly you wouldn't know whether roband is scum or not.

You're being inconsistent and illogical, unless I'm missing something here.

[t1mm01994]

Small slip there at night time, but I was asked for my thought process. I later found out this entire thing was symmetric as a circle and either way, my result would decide the game in town's favour if only they believed me. Your swift falseclaim is the only thing keeping scum from a loss, to be honest.

[Mostlynormal]

Alright. Thanks for the answer T1mm. I'm sorry for being sorta passive aggressive, but I figured the more pressure I could put on you, the more likely you'd slip up if you were scum.

I found T1mm's anwser a lot townier than I expected. So, since we don't have forever, it's time to place my vote. As usual, I'm sorry mpolo if you're town and well played t1mm if you're scum.

Vote: Mpolo

Ok, so it's not over yet. But this has a sense of finality to it. I think I've made the right choice though. All that's left is to wait and see.

[BoomFrog]

- I cop mpolo.
- He turns up town. Well.. Except for clearing one person as town, this gives very little information, just that you're scum.

I'm confused by this reasoning. Is there some secret info MN gave you last night that cemented MN as opposite alignment to mpolo?

@MN: I'm confused how you think t1mm's logic makes sense.

At any rate I think you should unvote and we should all claim our role names before you make your final decision. Deadline isn't for another two days. But if you leave your vote right now but you are wrong Roband will hammer and scum wins. Ironically I still think you're being too hasty. Don't let t1mm pressure you.

[BoomFrog]

I'd like Roband to claim first since he's my top suspect for 2nd scum. Then he can choose the order you and I claim in since if he is scum I don't care about our claim order and if he is town then it's good for him to choose between us.

[Mostlynormal]

@MN: I'm confused how you think t1mm's logic makes sense.

I don't. And that's the thing. If he were scum he could've crafted some elaborate reason or whatever, and done it very carefully. Instead, he was honest and showed his thought process at the time he made the decision, raw and uncorrected. Of course it could be a complicated scum ploy (anything could be at this point) but it seems a lot more townie than scummy to me.

At any rate I think you should unvote and we should all claim our role names before you make your final decision. Deadline isn't for another two days. But if you leave your vote right now but you are wrong Roband will hammer and scum wins. Ironically I still think you're being too hasty. Don't let t1mm pressure you.

Ok, we have two days left. Maybe I let the pressure get to me too much.

Unvote

But we should definitely not claim. Right now, it's possible that we have some blocking roles that could prevent a loss if we mislynch today. Claiming would only expose them. Besides, since it is basically LYLO, more conflicting claims (if we're that lucky) won't help us all that much, because we'll still have to figure out who is lying.

[BoomFrog]

Well, if I'm not scum, then your theory about mpolo is much weaker. So if say, you and Roband have a conflict that would prove that I am town and theoretically change your opinion. That's why I want Roband to claim first, I'm willing to claim second if Roband wants me to.

Since we're on the topic, who do you want to claim first between Roband and I, or you don't care? (You want scum to claim first FYI, in case that's not clear. It gives them less control over the results of their lie)

Anyway, I only want to claim rolenames not powers. It seems all the vanilla town are dead, so revealing that you have a power won't mean much. And, can someone please claim TMG's former position please. Even if you give no weight to it's significance it's still more info that for me that I think is useful. If I'm town that's helpful and if I'm scum it doesn't change anything if everyone else ignores it.

[Mostlynormal]

You bring up an interesting point, if there's a conflict between me and Roband you will be confirmed. I still don't think anybody else should claim, but I do think Roband should claim, and fullclaim if possible. I have other ideas about him that I'll keep to myself. Also, there's the bonus that I'm confirmed if he conflicts with you.

The only reason I want Roband to claim is my other, undisclosed ideas. I don't think anyone else should claim for the above reasons. I'd be willing to claim if I had to, but it'd be much more useful if Roband claimed first.

And yeah, I know that was sudden, but it didn't quite hit me until you mentioned the possibility of confirming someone through a conflict. For the record, I still think you're wanting people to claim and your weirdly convenient two target one shot softclaim make you really scummy.

[t1mm01994]

mpolo and MN have different alignments because if mpolo is scum, you're the likely partner, not MN. If MN is scum then roband is the likely partner, not mpolo. And if either is town, that'd leave you(BF), roband and the other. Seeing how I don't buy a BF + roband scum duo, that means that mpolo and MN must be differently aligned.

In related news, why would you want information that you can only ignore? Or even more, information that we agreed D1 would very likely be not-useful, with you being the leader of the opposition?

[mpolo]

The fact that we didn't lose twenty dollars and my self respect after MostlyNormal posted means that BoomFrog is 100% confirmed as town (at least for me at this point) -- he could have won the game by lynching me, and failed to do so.

Which means that either MostlyNormal (my original choice) is scum who was too eager to vote, or roband (BoomFrog's choice) is the remaining scum.

The fact that MN was willing to accept t1mm's shoddy argument is a strike against him, but he did unvote. That could be because he realized that hammering would be in his best interest, though.

I'm afraid that claiming rolenames might give away a blocker/doctor just as much as claiming powers -- a "Nurturing Neighbor" is likely to be the latter, for instance. And if the lynch is wrong, the town's only chance is to block the kill.

However, it would be nice for us all to be on board with the complete topology of the town. I can't see where that will hurt town. (After the lynch, everyone will have the complete topology; scum almost certainly have it now. The fact that no one is claiming where TMG was suggests that TMG was between the two scum who are now each others' neighbors.)

As I said earlier, my neighbors are BoomFrog and t1mm.

NINJA: t1mm desperately wants me to believe that MostlyNormal is scum [or is hoping that if BF thinks MN is town, he will mistakenly vote for me]. But this argument is so full of wine that I had best ignore it.

[t1mm01994]

That last post probably should have had a "from my point of view" or a "given that I'm town" clause thrown in. My apologies for it not being there. As for the topology, you're.. Missing some points made in my posts, it would seem. You yourself can witness that you're my neighbour and have always beenso, and I chatted with MN so that covers that side.

Still haven't seen ANY arguments as for why it would be nice to know, though. You and BoomFrog just seem to have decided that.. And the "it doesn't hurt" makes no sense. It doesn't /help/ town in any way that I'm aware of, and it can be very easily abused by scum to spread wine on who executed the nightkill.

[Mostlynormal]

I think from now on (given the rampant paranoia) we should assume that every post has a "from my point of view" disclaimer attached.

Speaking of which:

The fact that we didn't lose twenty dollars and my self respect after MostlyNormal posted means that BoomFrog is 100% confirmed as town (at least for me at this point) -- he could have won the game by lynching me, and failed to do so.

This is really just from "mpolo's point of view." from my point of view, if Boomfrog is scum that means that you're scum, because if you were town he would've hammered for the win. Of course, another possibility is that Boomfrog is town (in which case you could be town or scum), but I'm pretty convinced that Boomfrog is scum, so I'm even more convinced that you are scum.

All that's left to do now is wait for Roband to claim and, unless something drastic happens, lynch mpolo.

As far as the neighbor stuff, I don't think it would hurt or help, but I also want Roband to claim his neighbors first, because depending on what he says he could be caught in a contradiction with Boomfrog.

[roband]

Sup. Sorry about that.

Right, lots to catch up on. There's stuff I want to go through and post my thoughts on, but before anything else - you want me to claim fully?

I'm good with that. I'm not good with BoomFrog demanding that I claim first, and everyone else seeming ok with that. I understand that I should certainly claim before mostlynormal does - as he seems to be the most likely town at the moment.

Wait, I need to do a re-read here. MN seems town like because of Tim's cop-claim and my "MN didn't carry out the scum kill last night" claim. That would be nothing without Tim's cop claim - have we looked at a Tim/MN scum team? I need to look back at that possibility - if I think it exists, I will not be claiming before MN.

I'll get back to you on that.

[mpolo]

Personally, I'd be happy with you just claiming your neighbors (particularly if your power can stop the kill tonight).

But if you think a full claim will clear things up more, I won't interfere. We just have to watch out for the deadline…

[roband]

Oh, that was something I meant to say in my last post - I was a neighbour of TMG.

When he died, I gained a new neighbour - BoomFrog. Surprised he hasn't claimed this already.

[Mostlynormal]

For the record, I do not support claiming in general. I have some information on Roband that I want to see if he corroborates (may or may not be scum) or contradicts (which means he's lying, which means he's scum). I can't elaborate or else he'd know the information, which would defeat the point of possibly catching him in a lie if he's scum. I'm confident that this particular claim will not hurt town, and if it does, you can lynch me. There are actually two points of information, role and neighbor, so a neighbor claim would be good but a fullclaim would be ideal. This is sort of a precautionary measure, because I think we have a BF-mpolo scumteam but a mpolo-roband or timm-roband scumteam is still possible.

@ T1mm and Me scumteam: To narrow it down, there are only (from your point of view) 3 possible scumteams at this point:
BF-mpolo, mpolo-me, or t1mm-me. From my point of view, those are BF-mpolo, mpolo-Roband, and t1mm-Roband. So if I can convince myself that you're town I can convince myself to vote for mpolo, likewise if you can convince yourself that I'm town you can convince yourself to vote for mpolo. That's part of why I'm asking you to claim.

Ninja'd by neighborclaim: Ok, so I already knew that TMG was between Roband and Boomfrog. Actually, I just realized Roband's neighborclaim was irrelevant *sheepish*. But irrelevant in a good way. BF couldn't possibly have been telling the truth. See, I was thinking that perhaps BF could've not known where TMG was if his original neighbor was Vieto. (so I was wondering if Roband would claim Vieto as an original neighbor and thus contradict BF's implied claim). But now that I think about it, neighbor changes take place at once, right? So BF had to be a neighbor of TMG at some point. So he's lying. I shoulda figured that out a page ago but I got confused. Anyway, if you don't get it yet:

BF-Mpolo-T1mm-Me-Roband-TMG-Vieto-BF
turned into
BF-Mpolo-...-Roband-TMG-BF

So Boomfrog is lying, which means he's scum, which means mpolo is scum, so I think we win! One thing, to be sure

Neighbor changes take effect immediately, right? Or do they only take effect at the start of a new day?

Also, sorry for not noticing that sooner. I'm not going to vote yet, until I get confirmation on the exact mechanics.

[roband]

For the record, Vieto was never my neighbour.

I got notified about BF being my 'new' neighbour when the day started.

[Mostlynormal]

Right. So my point is, you got notified of your new neighbor as soon as we all found out TMG died. So BF should've gotten notified right after Vieto was lynched, so he'd have two neighbors throughout the night. But he's acting like he doesn't know who TMG's neighbors were.

[roband]

I'm not going to be swayed on a vote until I've read through. This will happen shortly.

[mpolo]

Now wait a minute. Why are you saying that if BF is scum, I have to be scum? I think that's something that t1mm has been feeding to you.

It looks to me like you have caught BF in an inconsistency, but since I know that I have been telling the truth about everything, the assumption that BF being scum necessarily means that I am scum is false.

Actually, very early on, he said that he couldn't use his power on his new neighbor, and we took that to mean roband. Is it possible that BF was not informed who his new neighbor was at all until daybreak? (The day title would actually support that reading…) I suppose this is all going to depend on what our Mod answers to MostlyNormal's question. This actually puts the mod in a tight spot, since refusing to answer will likely mean a victory for scum (as you seem to be planning to lynch me).

At the point we were at in the game, claiming a two-sided combined tracker/watcher power with no other powers out on the table would have been ludicrously risky for scum. That alone should make it patently clear that I am telling the truth. Because a scum member would have exactly 0 other powers to compare with. Making up something that big and powerful is not something that scum is likely to do at LYLO at the start of the day.

The position of TMG in the circle proves (based on what I know) that the mafia aren't limited to killing their neighbors, since t1mm killed TMG. On the first day t1mm used the idea that mafia could only kill their neighbors in his calculation, but his wording was couched in a hypothetical (as was mine), so I can't really accuse him of pushing that idea.

NINJA: I hope you get this right, roband.

[Mostlynormal]

Now wait a minute. Why are you saying that if BF is scum, I have to be scum? I think that's something that t1mm has been feeding to you.

When you were at L-1, BF didn't hammer. If he is scum then the only explanation for not hammering is that you are also scum.

As far as my question, it is a perfectly reasonable question, despite it's coincidental relevance to our situation. The time that we are notified of our new neighbors is something that should be common knowledge

[roband]

Right, ok, so looking back - there is no reason why MN and Tim can't be a scum team.

This completely removes MN from my 'likely town' heading - and instead means that he could well just be 'the scum partner that didn't perform the kill'. Of course, if that's the case - it means Tim's cop is definitely a fake one. I.e - if MN is scum, Tim is scum.
That would also explain MN following Tim, then backing off a bit. Newb scum moves?

In other news, I'm still not trusting anyone.

Claim - I roleblock anyone who visits me. Keeping my rolename under wraps for now - for the reason I gave above.

Now wait a minute. Why are you saying that if BF is scum, I have to be scum? I think that's something that t1mm has been feeding to you.

When you were at L-1, BF didn't hammer. If he is scum then the only explanation for not hammering is that you are also scum.

Oh damn, this is pretty solid.

So now I have one of two pairings to pick from.
If MN = scum, Tim = scum
If BF = scum, mpolo = scum

Of course, I highly doubt that Tim and mpolo is the scum team, which means it's a 50/50 tossup between MN and BF for my vote. I think. I need to read back again.

[roband]

I have over 12 hours, I'm going to sleep on this and look at it again in the morning...

[Mostlynormal]

That seems like a strange roleclaim. I was expecting straight roleblocker, and hoping to catch you by you claiming tracker. I think I trust it more because scum could've just said roleblocker and left it at that.

As far as me and T1mm being a scumteam, the reason I trusted him initially was that I had been gunning for mpolo from the start and found mpolo generally a lot more scummy than T1mm. I actually expected almost everybody to beleive T1mm, but then you expressed doubts and stuff. I guess you found the roleclaim itself to be less trustable. I sort of understand that now, but I still think Boomfrog is probably scum and so mpolo is scum. Anyway, I didn't think that was enough, but I wasn't ready to completely trust T1mm. I asked him about his choice of cop when I realized that traditionally a cop would cop the person they found scummiest because a scum result was more useful, and T1mm was talking all night about how he thought mpolo was scum. However, his response was much more detailed and much more honest-sounding than I expected. So I backed off. After BF didn't hammer, his scummyness became tied to mpolo's, and as you can see when you look back, Boomfrog's been acting very scummy.

[ConMan]

Neighbor changes take effect immediately, right? Or do they only take effect at the start of a new day?

The neighbourhood rearranges itself only at the beginning of the new day. Vieto's neighbours had one live neighbour each during N1.

[Mostlynormal]

The neighbourhood rearranges itself only at the beginning of the new day. Vieto's neighbours had one live neighbour each during N1.

Darn. Well, I'm still pretty confident about BF/mpolo, but now I don't know for sure. I guess it sorta depends on Roband now. I'd vote for mpolo now, but on the slight chance that I'm wrong there's no need to hurry things.

[t1mm01994]

I can be convinced to vote BoomFrog... If you want me to vote BF instead of mpolo I'll be on this thread from 8-9 hours from now.

[t1mm01994]

EBWOP: Actually, I won't. mpolo+roband is possible, though less probable. My vote will stay as it is atm.

[Mostlynormal]

No, it'd be much better to vote for mpolo, because there are conceivable situations in which BF is town but mpolo is not, but BF being scum automatically means mpolo is scum. Even though BF is the one I think is scummiest, we can gain the most from lynching mpolo first. So basically, I'm saying BF is really scummy, so we should vote mpolo

Ninja'd: Ok, this is redundant, but I'll leave it up anyway.

[t1mm01994]

Just pointing out: make sure you have a vote out on the deadline. A no lynch would very likely mean a very dead town.

[ConMan]

Approximately 24 hours remain until deadline.

Current voting totals:
mpolo - 1 - t1mm01994
t1mm01994 - 1 - mpolo

3 votes required for immediate lynch.

[Mostlynormal]

I might not be back before the deadline and there's not reason to risk it, since it seems like nothing's going to change. Let's hope I'm right.

Vote: mpolo

[mpolo]

MN is rapidly trying to convince me that he is the second scum, it seems. My arguments are completely ignored in the course of this whole argument. You decided long ago that you wanted to lynch me, and if you are town, to lose by doing so.

I also realized that powers won't save us tonight if I am lynched -- with four people including two scum going into the night, they are able to prevent a majority on the vote on the following day even if they don't kill, and have therefore won the game.

Of course, if MN is not scum, we have likely lost twenty dollars and my self respect already.

[BoomFrog]

and as you can see when you look back, Boomfrog's been acting very scummy.

How so?

Of course, if MN is not scum, we have likely lost twenty dollars and my self respect already.

Indeed. (assuming I'm right that your town).

On the presumption that Roband is town and we haven't lost twenty dollars and my self respect already I am going to full claim. MN and Roband have hinted that they used their powers last night so we presumably do not have a Vig, which means we lose or win with today's vote and powers are irrelevant. Doctors and RBs are not useful because staying at 4 alive for tomorrow is not helpful. Cops and watchers are somewhat helpful if we don't know who the scum is, but I think full claiming will narrow things down to two possible teams and then today's lynch will narrow it down to one.

I am a Noisy Neighbor. Once per game I can drive both of my neighbors out of their houses making them immune to night actions. From this I am going to make the educated guess that the remaining town is a Nurturing Neighbor and that their power is not a doctor as that'd be pretty redundant with my power. Although to be honest it is hard to read our mod's mind and predict what other powers are out there. (FYI: That's a compliment Conman).

I'd like Roband and MN to claim their rolenames at least. I don't care about the order, we don't have time to muck about.

I'm not voting t1mm yet out of the slim chance that MN is town and unvotes again before Roband comes online. More likely MN is scum though.