Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

[mpolo]

So by now we know that scum have to have some kind of power, because either roband is a godfather and the entire house of Gryffindor is scum or there is scum in Gryffindor and scum have a roleblocker or a redirecter. I'm not sure why people think a redirecter is more likely, since a roleblocker is more common.

Did Gryffindor receive a direct confirmation from the mod that roband blocked who he said he blocked, or did he just send in his command in mason chat (where he would have the possibility to change it afterwards)? We always get a modly confirmation of who went out and who he used our power on.

And I think that the time for secrecy about our power is gone: We are a tracker/watcher combo. (I think most people had guessed this anyway.)

Both nights, Adam visited Azrael001. He claims:

1) N1: Azrael stayed in his house and wasn't visited.
2) N2: Azrael visited mpolo and was then visited by another player. [Gotta keep some secrets; this pretty much has to be a Hufflepuff trying to protect him…]

[roband]

Inconsistencies, or handling new information? I think that the information that fearless was town is pretty huge in this case. How did I unvote "when people might agree" when there already were 7 votes on her at the time I voted?!

It seemed like there were less votes at the time. Whatever.

MN - my read on Lataro was wrong, simple as that. It remained unshared because it was wrong.

Also, Tim, MN, can you guys get some avatars? My little brain can't handle words at this time of the morning

[roband]

So by now we know that scum have to have some kind of power, because either roband is a godfather and the entire house of Gryffindor is scum or there is scum in Gryffindor and scum have a roleblocker or a redirecter. I'm not sure why people think a redirecter is more likely, since a roleblocker is more common.

Did Gryffindor receive a direct confirmation from the mod that roband blocked who he said he blocked, or did he just send in his command in mason chat (where he would have the possibility to change it afterwards)?

How many more damn times? I sent the request privately to the mod, who told everyone in the house my target when the end of night came around.

[t1mm01994]

@roband: Avatar request granted. It's just that your posts sounds so.. like you've already given up or something. The general tone is "well, I dunno, I look bad, but lynch Tim first", with some random "Bleh" in there. Everything indicates you're not really happy with this day..

I can again confirm roband on his last point, and add that mod made it day before sending the PM afaik.

[roband]

It's bleh because it's Wednesday morning, my ear is acting up (which means incoming vertigo and sickness), I've lead two incorrect lynches on townies and I'm fairly confident that you're scum.

Yeah, bleh fits.

[mpolo]

How many more damn times? I sent the request privately to the mod, who told everyone in the house my target when the end of night came around.

Sorry, I suppose that was a lazy question. I could have looked back. I'm just trying to come up with a scenario that doesn't posit a huge number of scum redirection/blocking powers and allows your house to not all be stinking liars.

Scenario One: All Gryphs are scum. They blocked someone other than they said in the hopes of getting fearless killed, because who's going to accept that all Gryphs are scum when it's easier to see one Ravenclaw as scum?

Scenario Two: Roband is not scum, but at least one Gryffindor was scum and knew that he was going to use the power and had some means of preventing it from going through (redirect or block). [My tendency to see this as a redirect is primarily because we know there is another block involved, and different powers is "cooler" for some arbitrary coolness metric.]

Scenario Three: No Gryphs are scum, but the scum managed to guess the right target. This is the least convincing of the three for me, as they are guaranteed to be able to mess with at least one investigation or protection (there have to be scum in at least two houses in this theory), why would they risk a 33% chance of messing with a roleblock.

[Adam H]

Also, we should find out who the last Gryffindor is, because I'll bet the entire house is scum.

Scum slip? Or just incredibly lazy and uninterested?

You 100% know who the third griff is, and now I think you're scum who can't keep straight what he is supposed to know and what he's not supposed to know.

[Adam H]

And now that I have the time, more posting!

EBWOP: Just realised what Adam had posted. Adam, I think we can all agree that something very strange happened day 1 with the roleblock. All of Gryffindor can confirm that roband roleblocked fearless, who was town, and she got a result. I honestly don't know if we can trust that result or that it somehow has been messed with.

I assume you are referring to me saying that roband is probably not a gf. But the thing is, the roband=gf theory doesn't explain a thing. SOMEONE stopped roband from roleblocking fearless. It could be that roband is scum, and stopped himself. Or it could be that the other griffs are scum, and stopped him. Or it could be that none of the other griffs are scum, and scum got lucky and stopped him. I reeeeaally doubt that all the griffs are scum.

Therefore, unless I'm missing something, saying that roband is probably gf because of yesterday is inane. You have to add in something else for everything make sense.

Oh, and also I take back when I said FAOT is somewhat cleared because he was healed on a night when scum didn't kill. IF he was healed, then ALL of hufflepuff is cleared. This is... unlikely, I think. So I think that scum did not submit a kill N1. Perhaps they can choose to either kill or roleblock/redirect, and last night seemed like the perfect time to roleblock.

[ForAllOfThis]

Big post incoming. Right, we may as well get out the information we know house-wise, just to make things easier. I think it's likely scum know who is in each house atm (there only needs to be one in my house, or one in griff), so the houses may as well be made public instead of stumbling around in the dark. I've added powers and cop results, and whos dead to make it easier to read.

Ravenclaw - Cop
Lataro
Fearless
Azrael

Griffyndor - Roleblock
Roband - TOWN
T1mm
? - Must be Greenlover.

Slytherin - ?
Mpolo - TOWN
Adam H
Second Shadow

Hufflepuff - Doctor
ForAllOfThis
Chandani
MostlyNormal

Just to follow up on Adams point, MostlyNormal was the one that was worried about looking like scum in the PMs, that I mentioned earlier. So big FoS: MostlyNormal for that. Which is odd, because it was N1 before we knew that actions would be made public. That might be important because it suggests that MostlyNormal might have known we would know his actions. Was it written in the rules somewhere?

Anyway, here's my current thoughts about everyone.

Scum
T1mm
MostlyNormal
Adam H
Roband
Town

Azrael - Mpolo(?)

Absent
Chan
Greenlover

I'll explain my list. I've been suspicous of T1mm since D1, he had strange voting patterns and made strange comments. I haven't seen anything to convince me of his towniness since then. His latest posts seem to indicate we should lynch roband, I'm not sure if that's OMGUS or something else (possible bussing has been mentioned?) but roband is the only town result from a confirmed townie, so I don't think lynching him is the best idea right now.

I've already given my reasons for MostlyNormal, but him being scum doesn't explain what happened to the night kill N1. The simplest explanation is that the doctor on me blocked it which suggest MN is town, but there's always the possibility of a withhold (and as the list of suspects are being whittled down, I'm starting to suspect the latter).

Adam is fairly neutral, I just don't like the assumed townieness from other players. I've seen posts that look like good townie posts, and comments that have shed him in a lesser light. Such as, Mpolo mentioned that Adam forced him to give up the power last night which sounds slightly scummy to me, but also the power use is in line with everything so far. If scum knew the target would be made public to the house though, then that's not suprising.

I've left Az & Mpolo out as their towniness is based on the reliability of Az's results, which is partly based on the townieness of Az and partly based on if scum have some power to interfere. There is a lot of if's and but's for me, meaning that there is just too much wine surrounding the results for them to be completely trusted at the moment. Saying that though, I haven't seen anything stand out from their posts that has made me think either is scum.

Haven't heard much from GL or Chan recently, so getting a read is difficult.

Going to go ahead and vote Tim and this point.

Vote: T1mm

Ninjaed - Adam's last post makes a lot of sense. I know there was a lot of discussion D1 about a cult, is it possible that scum could have swapped their NK during the game for a one-shot recruit or something similar? Seems like it would fit with the conspiracy flavour. I think it's a long shot, but if it did happen we need to be careful about what assumptions we make.

[Adam H]

... Mpolo mentioned that Adam forced him to give up the power last night which sounds slightly scummy to me, but also the power use is in line with everything so far. If scum knew the target would be made public to the house though, then that's not suprising.

Here's what happened: There was about 12 hours left to deadline, second had voted himself to take the power, and I had told both of them that I was going to vote mpolo unless second had any objections. But mpolo hadn't voted for himself yet, even though there was a pm where he could have. And I figured that I would rather have a 100% chance of town getting the power than giving it to an unknown. So I voted myself.

I agree that a griff lynch today would be a good idea. But I'm leery of yet another bandwagon since the last two didn't get us anywhere. And I am also of the opinion that one of these lurkers is scum. So let's see what happens when I do this:

Vote: Greenlover

[ForAllOfThis]

I still think lurker votes are scummy, and Adam's is no exception. It's safe and screams 'I don't want to draw attention by voting for someone active', but 'I also don't want to look like I'm jumping on another bandwagon.'

@Adam: Why do you think greenlover is more likely to be scum than anyone contributing?

[Azrael001]

Adam's latest post doesn't make me want to lynch him any less.

[Adam H]

@Adam: Why do you think greenlover is more likely to be scum than anyone contributing?

I don't. I think Az is the most likely scum. (ninja: oh hey there )

But I'll go back through greenlover's posts and see what I can see. First, he doesn't realize that the rules state that mafia has a kill, even after it was pointed out. Next, he says that we gain more than we lose by claiming, and then immediately after it he says that he wasn't advocating it. His posts yesterday dont take many possibilities into account, saying that fearless=scum is an open/shut case. And he voted 3rd for fearless.

So nothing that needs defending, but it leaves me with a bad taste in my mouth, basically.

[roband]

Yeah, I don't think greenlover is town, but I don't think he's scum either. He's absent. Why change the habit of a lifetime, eh?

[greenlover]

His posts yesterday dont take many possibilities into account, saying that fearless=scum is an open/shut case. And he voted 3rd for fearless.

I suppose I should explain this, since its the only thing that hasn't been explained already. My reasoning was that, given this is a newbie game, that there wouldn't be any unusual scum powers. A redirecting power is pretty unusual. Thus, I assumed that it probably wouldn't be in the game. Occam's Razor for the win!

Anyway, I'm not sure if I said any of this in thread, but I've found Tim to be more scummy than Roband from day one, when we decided who would use the roleblock (and yes, I'm roband's and Tim's teammate.). His sudden and sever dislike of roband has done nothing but affirm my opinion that he's scum trying to dodge the lynch, especially given that he considered roband townier than I for the last two nights. So, roband is townier than I for two nights, but now I'm townier than roband? I skeptical.

Vote: Tim

Also:

Yeah, I don't think greenlover is town, but I don't think he's scum either. He's absent. Why change the habit of a lifetime, eh?

Shut yo mouth.

[Azrael001]

I am fine with the Tim lynch, and I think that I'll help it along. The sooner we get to tomorrow, the sooner we'll have more data.

Unvote Adam H

Vote Tim

[Adam H]

4 votes on t1mm (I believe), 5 to hammer.

[Gopher of Pern]

Thats Hammer

T1mm has been lynched. Will provide house points later.

[mpolo]

I have to say that my housemate's move there doesn't make me feel better about him. I really don't like the "voted 3rd, must be mafia" argument, since it tends to be wrong as often as not, because the scum know that people are looking for that.

There is some merit there, though:
1) There is almost certainly at least one scum in Gryffindor
2) We don't want an uninformed bandwagon.
3) He has also come back with some decent arguments, particularly that the "roband godfather" theory can only explain things in combination with at least one more scum power. Which seems quite iffy.

On the other hand, t1mm is advocating a lynch against a cop result from a confirmed townie. I admit that I am not 100% convinced of roband with the weirdness that is involved in that scenario, but I don't think our first choice lynch target can be the one who was copped.

And I missed out on getting any points for my (losing) house yesterday by not counting votes.

Vote: t1mm01994

Az has a certain suspicion against him because of being the last in a house with two known townies, but on the other hand, the fact that his investigation meshed with ours is quite positive for him (though not decisive).

That gives at least a gut feeling on four players (Adam, t1mm, roband, and Azrael); I currently trust FAOT quite well, and am undecided on the lurkers.

EDIT: NINJAED BY HAMMER.

[Gopher of Pern]

Votals:
T1mm: 5 (Roband, Mostlynormal, FAOT, Greenlover, Azrael)
Greenlover: 1 (Adam H)

House Points:
Gryffindor - 105 points
Hufflepuff - 56 points
Ravenclaw - 95 points
Slytherin - 78 points

Night 3 will end on Saturday 11th February at 9AM ADST

[Gopher of Pern]

The students all ganged up on T1mm, telling every teacher they could that T1mm was evil. Eventually, fed up with all the complaints, the teachers go and investigate T1mm's quarters. There, they discover several dark artifacts, one of which was a muggle computer, which seemed to be computing some sort of algorithm. The teachers cant make any sense of it, but they summarily take T1mm away.

T1mm was lynched. They were a conspirator, infiltrating house Gryffindor.

Satisfied that they discovered the conspiracy, and the fact that in all the mess the teachers forgot to give them homework, the students have a quiet night. There are some midnight strolls, but everyone turns up to the breakfast table the next morning.

8 Players alive, 5 votes to lynch.

Day ends in 7 days, ending Saturday 18th February, 7pm ADST.

House Points:
Gryffindor - 115 points
Hufflepuff - 66 points
Ravenclaw - 100 points
Slytherin - 78 points

[Azrael001]

I investigated Adam H, he was just a student.

[mpolo]

Adam H let me carry out the action. I tracked and watched roband, who visited FAOT and was not visited by anyone else.

Which means that either FAOT was a would-be killer last night, or roband is working for scum, trying to block the doctor.

Perhaps Gryffindor and Hufflepuff can give us some more info on how to interpret this.


The thing between Adam and Azrael is interesting (and winey). Adam has been after Azrael for a long time (especially in in-house communication), enough so that I think it less distancing than honestly believing that Azrael was scum. On the other hand, the possibility that they are scumbuddies is not to be discarded. An additional data point: T1mm said that he would have tracked/watched greenlover or me, offering himself as a target for my watcher. Which means that it is likely that if he were scum, he didn't try to perform a kill.

If both Azrael and Adam are town, we have the interesting situation that there would have been no conspirators in Slytherin or Ravenclaw. On the one hand, that makes sense for keeping the investigations in town hands, but may be too easy.

[mpolo]

EBWOP: s/T1mm/Adam H/

[Mostlynormal]

Mpolo: can you please think very carefully and write down your watcher/tracker results once more? What you have now can't possibly be true. There may be a typo--I'm willing to assume it's that because you have a partner that can verify all this.

I still think there's a decent chance that the entire Gryffindor house is scum. I also see good reasons that Az could be scum, and not as good reasons that Adam could be scum. I think I'm going to reread and watch how other people have been interacting with T1mm. I have a feeling that our night actions, once they all get straightened out, will be really informative, since there was no nightkill.

Whenever I bring up Roband's weird "read" on Lataro, he says the reason he hasn't shared it is that it was wrong. That's fair enough, but why didn't you share it before you knew it was wrong? Also, it can't hurt for you to share it now, so we know what you were thinking.

[Azrael001]

With Tim flipping scum I feel much more confident lynching the rest of Gryffindor. Assuming that he lied about blocking fearless, things are a bit muddy, but a godfather power is not uncommon, and more likely than a redirect.

[mpolo]

Mpolo: can you please think very carefully and write down your watcher/tracker results once more? What you have now can't possibly be true. There may be a typo--I'm willing to assume it's that because you have a partner that can verify all this.

The message from GoP says (this is almost a quote; I'm paraphrasing because of the rules) that I watched roband during the night. I noted that he visited FAOT and that no one visited roband.

Are you telling us that there is some kind of crazy redirection / blocking going on here? I know that I wasn't blocked, because I got a result.

[Adam H]

T1mm Adam said that he would have tracked/watched greenlover or me, offering himself as a target for my watcher.

FTFY

Hmmm. We have a hufflepuff who is disputing either that roband visited FAOT or that no one visited roband. I can confirm that mpolo watched/tracked roband, but I have to take his word on the results. I have a theory as to what happened but I'd like to hear from griff and huffle first.

[greenlover]

Huh. Well, roband blocked FAOT last night, that I can confirm. My first instinct is to lynch FAOT, but we did that on D2, and fearless flipped town. Is it possible that the NK is an even night kill? Looking back at the rules, GoP did not specify that the factional kill was every night.

[Mostlynormal]

Last night we gave the doctor power to FAOT and he targeted Roband. So there are a few scenarios I can think of right now.

1) You're lying, which I think is unlikely because, well it just doesn't make sense that even scum would lie in this situation.

2) Roband roleblocked FAOT last night and FAOT didn't visit *anyone* because the roleblock resolved first. I wouldn't know if it's usual procedure to count a roleblocked person as "visiting" anyone or not. I don't really like this explanation because it doesn't really account well for the fact that there was no nightkill, unless perhaps FAOT carried out the kill last night but got roleblocked. I don't really think FAOT is scum, but I suppose it's possible.

3) Scum are able to withhold their power and still look like they targeted someone. This has FAOT as scum too actually, I may have to revise my opinion of him.

4) Scum withheld the kill for some reason. I doubt they did it just for the sake of possibly spreading wine; they probably knew something was going to happen, such as the roleblocker roleblocking a doctor (when there's roleblocking and doctor powers in play it's useful information but hard for scum to turn it into a lynch of a "confirmed" scum, but if the doctor gets roleblocked then they *have* to be the one who carried out the kill, see scenario 2). Under this scenario there's probably scum in Hufflepuff (Which would be Chandani because (assuming this scenario) an FAOT scum wouldn't incriminate himself by withholding the kill) and almost definitely scum in Gryffindor (probably Roband if they gave him private control of the roleblock)

5) This one is far out, but worth mentioning. We'll have it confirmed/denied when Gryffindor posts anyway. Roband is scum carrying out the kill, but was blocked by Greenlover. Like I said, it's out there, but worth mentioning.

So, either FAOT is scum (I don't see much evidence of this) or Roband and probably Chandani or Greenlover are scum. I'm leaning towards Roband, since I suspected him before.

Also, Are we informed of any powers scum had upon their death? That is, if T1mm was a roleblocker/redirector, would we know it?

Ninja'd, but not much changes. Greenlover said something interesting about the factional kill. I thought it was implied to be every night, but I'll have to go back and check.

[Mostlynormal]

EBWOP: Not only is Greenlover's suggestion unlikely, but it still doesn't explain the fearless fiasco. Even if mafia had no kill that night, fearless specifically claimed that her action went through, while Roband specifically claimed that he blocked her.

[Gopher of Pern]

No special powers are revealed upon death.

[Mostlynormal]

I'm actually staring to feel better about Roband. Upon re-reading, it occurred to me that a scum Roband would do better roleblocking someone a lot less suspicious than fearless, since fearless was already under suspicion. This just leaves me even more confused. I'd like to hear what Roband and FAOT have to say for themselves.

[Azrael001]

The more I think about it, the more that I think that Roband must have some sort of godfather ability. I think that we are foolish to trust an investigation that was "blocked".

Vote Roband

[greenlover]

EBWOP: Not only is Greenlover's suggestion unlikely, but it still doesn't explain the fearless fiasco. Even if mafia had no kill that night, fearless specifically claimed that her action went through, while Roband specifically claimed that he blocked her.

Simply put, the mafia would have been given a different power on alternate nights. I think that that theory was thrown around earlier?

[mpolo]

I'm trying to come up with scenarios that make sense with what we know:

1) All Gryffindors are scum - This would explain yesterdays results: they lied about blocking fearless, and roband is some sort of godfather. Today's would require assuming that they either chose not to kill or couldn't kill for some other reason, though.

2) There is one scum in Gryffindor and one in Hufflepuff [roband and FAOT are innocent] - There would need to be a blocker or redirector among the scum to explain yesterday's results. Today we would have the scum knowing where the roleblock and doctor are falling and hoping that it makes someone look suspicious. Though I don't know if they would sacrifice the kill for this.

3) FAOT is scum - We would need an additional scum power to explain yesterday, I think. Today is explained very nicely, though. FAOT would have turned in a protect on roband and a kill on someone else, but roband's block got rid of both of those. I assume the second scum is in Gryffindor in this case.

I think that number 3 seems to be the most likely, but maybe there's another way to explain all this. Anybody have another idea?

On the other hand, I am currently feeling very good about Azrael and Adam H. It is highly unlikely that they are scumbuddies because of the Gryffindor-Hufflepuff interactions, which necessitate at least one if not two scum between those two houses. Azrael could still be just trying to play to placate us in Slytherin by copping us, but all in all, this currently seems less likely than the other constellations.

[Adam H]

Watcher/tracker results typically don't see roleblocked actions. There's something else going on, but I don't think our house powers last night uncovered anything revelationary - if everyone is telling the truth, then the only weird thing that happened last night is that there was no NK.

No NK last night means that either mafia did not submit a kill, or FAOT is scum (and submitted the NK). But if FAOT is scum, then mafia definitely did not submit a kill on N1 because FAOT was doctored and that's the only thing that could have stopped the NK. So there has been at least one night where mafia did not submit a kill, and probably two nights.

So FAOT being scum doesn't explain much, IMO. There was still no NK on N1.


I might be up for NL today. It's worth a discussion. It seems like every night we get more good info. But if there IS a cult, it would be a horrible move. And I definitely need to do analysis on possible t1mm connections; there may be an obvious scumbuddy.

[roband]

Hey ya'll, I blocked FAOT. I did so because there were a few things yesterday which pinged me from him.
And there was no nightkill. Hmm.

The fact is, if FAOT had doctored me - it would have shown to the tracker/watcher who targeted me, right? So we know he's lying.
My block (confirmed by my housemate and the tracker) stopped FAOT from performing his action, likely a kill.

Scum witholding their kill is a silly idea - at this point in the game, I see no benefit to them for doing that.

With Tim flipping scum I feel much more confident lynching the rest of Gryffindor. Assuming that he lied about blocking fearless, things are a bit muddy, but a godfather power is not uncommon, and more likely than a redirect.

Sure you want to lynch the rest of my house, because I've said that I think you're scum - so you want me dead.

The more I think about it, the more that I think that Roband must have some sort of godfather ability. I think that we are foolish to trust an investigation that was "blocked".

Vote Roband

Again, you're trying to force the lynch here - what if Tim was the redirctor and is now dead?

Logically, YOU are more likely to be lying than ME. You have no-one to back you up (the rest of your housemates can't verify your 'result' because they're dead).

In my opinion, if we're talking about lynching someone other than FAOT (who I think we should lynch anyway) - it should be you. Being alone in your house means you can lie. Unlike myself, where greenlover can confirm. And you may say that both of us are scum, but out of our two disputable claims (your cop target and my RB target), the odds say that you alone are more likely to be scum than both me AND greenlover.

That was a bit of a rant. Regardless, I want to lynch FAOT today.

[Azrael001]

the rest of your housemates can't verify your 'result' because they're dead

Someone lead a lynch against fearless yesterday, and it wasn't me.

If the conspiracy can recruit every other night, then that would explain the lack of kills.

I could probably be convinced to vote FAOT, but after the fearless fiasco, it would be difficult.

[roband]

And now you're hypothesising that there's a recruit?

Which means that FAOT DIDN'T try to kill anyone last night. Yet you'd lynch him.

Sounds like you're trying to save FAOT by inventing an unlikely mechanic, but distance yourself from him at the same time.

I might be missing the mark here (I should be sleeping), but your post doesn't make sense to me.