Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

[Mostlynormal]

The nice thing about this is, unlike most of these situations, we aren't at MYLO yet, so we can afford to lynch a townie if it'll get us a confirmed scum tommorrow. All we need to do is determine something like: "If X flips town, Y is scum." We need more information about the night actions out in the open. So I have a question for Gryffindor:

Was the target decided by the both of you, or decided privately by Roband?

For our house's part, we gave the power to FAOT, but allowed him to decide the target privately. I did suggest he consider Az with a high probability (pro town wine and all that) but the decision was ultimately up to him.

The fact is, if FAOT had doctored me - it would have shown to the tracker/watcher who targeted me, right? So we know he's lying. My block (confirmed by my housemate and the tracker) stopped FAOT from performing his action, likely a kill.

This is weird. It seems like an attempt at spreading paranoia. FAOT hasn't even posted yet. I was the one who claimed he tried to doctor you. And I'll be backed up by both my housemates. Neither of us are lying, at least not about our targets. The only question is whether the roleblock prevented the NK, or if the NK was held back by scum who knew the roleblock would incriminate FAOT. Your point that scum wouldn't withhold the NK isn't valid, because a dead townie and a wasted lynch is better than simply a dead townie.

Once again, I think we can turn this to town's advantage if we can find a way to get confirmed scum out of a mislynch today. It'll depend on the answers to a few more questions.

[Adam H]

My block (confirmed by my housemate and the tracker) stopped FAOT from performing his action, likely a kill doctor.

FTFY. If you stopped FAOT from performing his doctor, why would watcher be able to see him doctor you?

That said, FAOT could easily be scum. But we'd be lynching for the exact same reason that we lynched fearless. So I'd like to see some content analysis before a bandwagon forms. Don't just say FAOT pinged you, give us the pings.

[Adam H]

The only question is whether the roleblock prevented the NK, or if the NK was held back by scum who knew the roleblock would incriminate FAOT.

What the hell? Why has everyone forgotten that we didn't have an NK on night 1? Did I miss something? Because as I see it, something screwy is going on, and I have no idea what.

[ForAllOfThis]

I've been away all weekend and only just got back. I didn't target roband with the doctor last night, I targetted mpolo (and have the corresponding PM to prove it). I'm not sure if the mod has mixed up my action with someone elses, or if everything is correct. Waiting for confirmation before I comment further on that.

Ninja mod PM - GoP confirmed that I did target mpolo with the doctor and the PM to housemates saying that I targetted roband was a mod mistake. I've been told it's going to be corrected with a second PM to housemates.

I have no idea about the lack of NK last night. All I can think is whatever happened on N1 with fearless and roband, must have also happened last night with me. The simplest explanation from where I'm standing is that I wasn't roleblocked, and my doctoring mpolo was successful and blocked the kill.

Although, FoS: Roband for targeting me with the roleblock. My house knew I was carrying out the doctor so I think it's abit 'convenient' that you happened to choose to roleblock me last night. On top of that, you've given a completely ambiguous reason of your choice to roleblock me as 'a few things pinged me yesterday', which begs the question why didn't you mention these pings yesterday?

[Mostlynormal]

I can confirm that FAOT did indeed target mpolo, and the roband thing was a mistake.

In some ways though this doesn't change much. Since the doctor still got roleblocked, our only two options are still FAOT carried out the kill or scum held back the kill for some reason. Like I said before, I'd like to hear from Roband or GL about whether Roband decided privately or publicly who to target.

[Mostlynormal]

Well actually there's one more option--Roband and GL are scum who targeted mpolo last night, and now roband claims to have targeted FAOT. But this is not likely and can be considered basically equivalent to the holding back the kill scenario.

[mpolo]

I know that FAOT was blocked because of the tracker/watcher result [combined with the Gryphs both saying that FAOT was targeted with the roleblock]. So his protect on me would not have gone through. If he were also the killer, of course, his kill would have been blocked. If he were not the killer, however, the kill would have had to have gone through, as both possible blocks were out of the way.

Which leaves us again with no nightkill for questionable reasons. A couple of possibilities.

1) FAOT is scum and was blocked.
2) The conspiracy alternates kills and recruits (or chooses between the two options). [This is based on the signup thread, which hinted at a cultish aspect to the conspiracy.]

If the conspiracy has recruit abilities, I am assuming that they started with one or two members, more likely one. This doesn't change a lot for us at the moment, in that with one down, they would have had one or two recruits, so be at 1+1-1 or 1+2-1 members at present.

Do we have any reason for eliminating the possibility of a recruit? The only real reason I see is that the game is supposed to be newbie-friendly, which may be enough reason for it not to be so, I suppose.

[Adam H]

Reading back through t1mm's posts. Here are my thoughts:

-He's very much against claiming houses. But most of this came after lataro claimed for ravenclaw, so there's a good chance that scum already knew the houses at that point. He also buddyed hard up to Az. Implication: Az is town.
-Asks brook a few times to tell us what he found scummy in housechat (it was a rule misunderstanding on my part, btw; I don't think that ever got out). This is weak evidence that mpolo is town, because if mpolo were scum then t1mm wouldn't need to ask.
-He says there's two explanations for why there was no NK the first night: there's either a cult or the roleblock/doctor was successful.
-He claims to keep a spreadsheet with the house points to see who is in which house. If true, this makes it more likely that griff is all scum, since if there was a scum in either huffle or slyth he would know all the players and have no need of a spreadsheet. (this is a stretch, I know)
-He wants a roband lynch. He leans very hard on the godfather possibility. I doubt this is distancing. I take back my statement that griff might be all scum - I think roband is town.
-He says "I don't know what is worse, a scum cop or no cop at all". Subtly trying to get Az lynched - more evidence that Az is town, IMO.

Conclusions: Roband, Az, and mpolo are likely town, though he could have been operating at a higher level of deception than I think he was.

[Adam H]

I'm bored, so let's spice things up, shall we? Since no one has bothered to comment on my "I might be up for NL today", I'll force everyone to talk about it:

Vote: NL

Reasoning: we've apparently done a good job screwing up scum, we have several good powers that I expect will gain us good info, and we're at an even number of players. I'm disinclined to believe there's a cult, because as a mod* I'm of the opinion that without an opposing scum faction, there's no good way of balancing cult.

*hehe jk

[roband]

Don't be silly. That about sums up my thoughts on NLing.

I've had a busy work day and a busier personal evening - so no 'why FAOT pinged me' tonight, sorry.

[Mostlynormal]

I think we have enough information for a lynch right now. There's just one thing I want to confirm, which has gone annoyingly unconfirmed. Did Roband decide the RB target privately or publicly?

[greenlover]

I think we have enough information for a lynch right now. There's just one thing I want to confirm, which has gone annoyingly unconfirmed. Did Roband decide the RB target privately or publicly?

Ah, sorry. He decided who he would roleblock privately, as he has every time he was given the roleblock.

[Mostlynormal]

Ah, sorry. He decided who he would roleblock privately, as he has every time he was given the roleblock.

Perfect! This means we can just lynch either one of Roband or FAOT and then lynch the other if the first flips town! It'll get us the next few night's information, without restorting to a no lynch. This is because if FAOT flips town, then we know scum held back the kill, which means it's almost positive that Roband, the only one with knowledge of the RB target, is scum. If Roband flips town, we know that scum probably didn't know enough to withhold the kill, which means that FAOT is scum.

I propose we lynch FAOT first since his house has more survivors (so we keep house powers alive for longer). Sorry if you're town FAOT, you'll die sacrificing yourself for a high and glorious cause.

Vote: FAOT

[Azrael001]

Mostlynormal sounds mostly rational. Though I think that it should be the other way round, I am willing to follow town on this one.

Unvote

Vote: FAOT

[ForAllOfThis]

Wow I'm clearly being set up here, just like fearless, and people seem to be lapping it up instead of actually thinking about it. Roband didn't think I was scum yesterday at all (and thus had no townie reason to block me). If he had reasons yesterday, then it wouldn't have taken him long to post them today but by postponing it, it means he has to go and look for the reasons as to why he thinks I'm scum (further suggesting he didn't have any last night). He's also solely controlled his house power for the entire game. That's something that I would expect from a scum player.

Right now, I'm being accused of being scum based solely on robands action. As far as I'm aware, there have been no other accusations of me being scum all game. Last time we lynched someone based on robands roleblock, we lynched a townie. We don't need to make the same mistake twice. If I live Az has the oppurtunity to cop me tonight. That's my case for being town.

@mpolo: I don't see how your watcher/tracker power can confirm that I was definitely roleblocked last night. It can only confirm that no-one visited roband and that he targetted me with the roleblock. It doesn't mean that the roleblock was successful, or that it reached me. In the fearless situation some weird power switching must have been going on to get the result we did, which if happened at my end wouldn't have been picked up on your tracker.

Right now, I'd be happy with lynching roband for lieing about finding me scummy yesterday. I would also consider Adam's idea of a NL, if other people think it would be a good move. It would at least give me a chance to prove that I'm telling the truth, as the last lynch led on robands actions ended up with a fellow townie being lynched. For now:

Vote: Roband

[Mostlynormal]

Right now, I'm being accused of being scum based solely on robands action. As far as I'm aware, there have been no other accusations of me being scum all game. Last time we lynched someone based on robands roleblock, we lynched a townie. We don't need to make the same mistake twice. If I live Az has the oppurtunity to cop me tonight. That's my case for being town.

Well, this at least makes me feel better about lynching FAOT first. Why the overreaction? Did you miss the part where we decided to lynch Roband if you flipped town? I don't have a problem with you trying to get us to lynch Roband first (From your point of view, a townie lynch then a scum lynch wouldn't be bad but just a scum lynch first would be even better), but you seem to be trying to avoid being lynched at all. You do realize that if we lynch Roband and he flips town, we'd lynch you whether or not Az claimed you were town? All that's tell us is he's your scumbuddy. The point is, where we are now, we can be virtually certain that either you or Roband are scum.

[Azrael001]

It occurs to me that we have already done this test, with fearless. That was the reason that I has such strong convictions towards lynching Roband. Then I got sleepy and forgot.

Unvote

Vote Roband

Because I am sleepy and dumb, and if it really doesn't matter, then we can always lynch FAOT tomorrow. I'm not too worried about Gryffindor losing more people, at least, not for the reasons that Mostlynormal gave. Roleblock isn't really all that towny of a power, and it's more likely to mess with us than it is with scum. It's like a bad version of a doctor.

[mpolo]

@mpolo: I don't see how your watcher/tracker power can confirm that I was definitely roleblocked last night. It can only confirm that no-one visited roband and that he targetted me with the roleblock. It doesn't mean that the roleblock was successful, or that it reached me. In the fearless situation some weird power switching must have been going on to get the result we did, which if happened at my end wouldn't have been picked up on your tracker.

I think that I know definitely that you were visited by roband (not that he started out to visit you and ended up somewhere else). At least that's the way I'm reading the PM. There are theoretically two reasons that he might have visited you: to roleblock you or to kill you. And you are not dead. Ergo.

Based on the fact that it has been "every other night" that a kill went through, I'm willing to entertain the idea that there is a logical reason that there was no kill N1 and N3; I don't really have enough data points for this, but it's at least in the realm of possibility.

I was all ready to vote FAOT based on the lack of kill. But since I've determined that lack of kill doesn't necessarily mean that we have to assume that scum withheld their kill, that argument is much weaker, which puts me back at the mistrust that Gryffindor in general, and roband in particular has engendered in this game. FAOT has not pinged me nearly as often as roband has.

I currently trust: Adam H, Azrael001. Depending on the outcome today, FAOT.

Vote: roband

[roband]

This is a quick "I need to leave for work" post, so don't expect much.

FAOT, you're flailing.

Suggesting we lynch me then COP you?! I'm all for being lynched if it means you get lynched tomorrow. But wasting a cop on you? POINTLESS. A waste.

I've postponed giving my reasons for finding you scummy yesterday, because this game is currently the lowest priority thing I have going on right now. Unfortunate, given what I know based on my power, but whatever.

Also, Az just slipped perhaps? Said he'd be happy to "follow town"? And is thus.. not town?

As I said, more later.

[roband]

Right, I looked back to try and recall what made me use my power on FAOT. And I can't find the reason why. There was a reason. Something didn't sit right with me.

I clearly wasn't trying to block the doctor being used - I had no idea FAOT would be taking control of that power again.

Whatever. Lynch me. But DON'T waste a cop investigation on FAOT - lynch him tomorrow. Don't let him try to spin a tale of "how we much both be townies" and "the redirect must still be active.." or something. I will come up town - so lynch him tomorrow.

[ForAllOfThis]

Several things wrong with this post.

Right, I looked back to try and recall what made me use my power on FAOT. And I can't find the reason why. There was a reason. Something didn't sit right with me.

I clearly wasn't trying to block the doctor being used - I had no idea FAOT would be taking control of that power again.

We're just suppose to take your word for it right? Oh and what do you mean taking control of that power again? Last night was the first time I carried out the action for our house. So that doesn't make any sense.

Whatever. Lynch me. But DON'T waste a cop investigation on FAOT - lynch him tomorrow. Don't let him try to spin a tale of "how we much both be townies" and "the redirect must still be active.." or something. I will come up town - so lynch him tomorrow.

As I see it, there are few people left for Az to cop anyway. I partly agree it would be a waste considering he's going to get a town result on me, but I feel it might be necessary with all the wine your spilling. Robands last post basically reads like an admission of guilt and desperate plea. That should be all the evidence you should need that lynching roband over me is a good idea.

[roband]

Hahahaha. I'm HAPPY to be lynched, for the greater good.

You're not.

Either way, you will be getting lynched, it just takes people to realise that my "I don't care"ness is genuine and maybe lynch you first.

[greenlover]

Hahahaha. I'm HAPPY to be lynched, for the greater good.

You're not.

Eh, this is true FAOT. You're pulling every trick out of the bag in an effort to avoid getting lynched.

Vote: FAOT

Because his reaction to being lynched is scummier than robands.

Though, roband, if you possibly write down the reasons you use your power in the future, that would be awesome. Make our lives a lot easier.

[roband]

I'm an instinct player. You lurk, that's your thing

Oh by the way, expect OMGGRIFFSCUM for supporting me. Not that I don't appreciate it, y'know?

[ForAllOfThis]

Except greenlover, roband then goes on to state that he is using his 'not caring' about being lynched as a strategy, to not get lynched.

it just takes people to realise that my "I don't care"ness is genuine and maybe lynch you first.

[roband]

Except greenlover, roband then goes on to state that he is using his 'not caring' about being lynched as a strategy, to not get lynched.

it just takes people to realise that my "I don't care"ness is genuine and maybe lynch you first.

I'm not using it - it's just a fact that some people might take it on board. And if they do, even better.

If you were town, you'd be putting your head on the block. You're going about it all wrong.

[Adam H]

Roband, some humility might go a long way here. You cannot possibly be sure that FAOT is scum; this EXACT thing happened with fearless and you were wrong then. So unless you have good reason to believe this time is different, my vote will be on you.

[roband]

Roband, some humility might go a long way here. You cannot possibly be sure that FAOT is scum; this EXACT thing happened with fearless and you were wrong then. So unless you have good reason to believe this time is different, my vote will be on you.

No.

Because if that's the case, then you're saying scum withheld the kill.

Either I am scum and both held back the kill and roleblocked FAOT (to make him look bad), or FAOT is scum and the kill didn't go through because I roleblocked him.
We can't both be town. Therefore, I'm sure he's scum.

Go on, vote for me. I accept that. Losing one scum for one town is good for us right now (I think).

[greenlover]

Except greenlover, roband then goes on to state that he is using his 'not caring' about being lynched as a strategy, to not get lynched.

IE: he doesn't care, but he really does care because he doesn't care and if people realize that he doesn't care he'll not be lynched. That...doesn't add up. And I still say that you're trying to pull every trick you can to not be lynched.

Oh by the way, expect OMGGRIFFSCUM for supporting me. Not that I don't appreciate it, y'know?

Like I wasn't already going to be lynched if you flipped scum?

Roband, some humility might go a long way here. You cannot possibly be sure that FAOT is scum; this EXACT thing happened with fearless and you were wrong then. So unless you have good reason to believe this time is different, my vote will be on you.

I agree with this. My justification for voting for FAOT is not because he was roleblocked, but because of his ever increasing desperation to not be lynched.

Because if that's the case, then you're saying scum withheld the kill.

Eh, I'm calling this a false dilemma. We don't know what powers the scum have, so its still possible that they have some kind of crazy power. A perfectly possible possibility in a game like this, given what happened with fearless.

[roband]

I think the only positive to be taken from this right now is that it's pretty clear that me and FAOT are not BOTH scum.
So that's something.

[Adam H]

Roband, some humility might go a long way here. You cannot possibly be sure that FAOT is scum; this EXACT thing happened with fearless and you were wrong then. So unless you have good reason to believe this time is different, my vote will be on you.

No.

Because if that's the case, then you're saying scum withheld the kill.

Either I am scum and both held back the kill and roleblocked FAOT (to make him look bad), or FAOT is scum and the kill didn't go through because I roleblocked him.
We can't both be town. Therefore, I'm sure he's scum.

What the FUCK do you think happened N1?!?!? I feel like I'm in crazytown!!!!

[roband]

This is different, because FAOT claims to have targetted me with a doctor.

He's claiming his protect worked. I'm claiming that my roleblock worked.

He is disputing being roleblocked. Oh.. like fearless did. Well... shit.

The fact is - from my point of view (because I didn't know about any external powers) lynching fearless was the right thing to do. Now that one of the scum is dead (maybe the one who had the power that affected me), I still feel that following the results from using my power is the correct move.

[Adam H]

Hehe I was just about to EBWOP and apologize/clarify my outburst by saying exactly what you just said. And yes, usually doctors (roles that don't get any info back from the mod) don't realize when they've been roleblocked.

It really seems obvious to me that we should NL, doctors should pick between Az and one of the slytherins, and we see what info the useful powers can give us. So far the roleblock has only gotten us counterproductive information. I honestly think it's most likely that both roband and FAOT are town, at least you seem as townie as, say, Chandani (who I don't think has posted in weeks).

[roband]

Nah - look at how FAOT has gone about 'defending' himself... He's scum, IMO.

[Adam H]

To convince me to vote FAOT over roband, someone will have to spell out exactly how FAOT's defense was scummy. I thought it was fine, whereas Roband's strikes me as insincere or foolish.

[roband]

Yeah well I've been called a fool before.

Just, if you lynch me - when you see that I'm town, lynch HIM. Ok?

[Adam H]

Just, if you lynch me - when you see that I'm town, lynch HIM. Ok?

I really do not understand your certainty. You were JUST wrong about this.

[roband]

You're not getting out of today without lynching one of us.

Lynch him and see. Lynching me will put you in an awkward position, because you might then NOT lynch him. Which is a mistake.

[Azrael001]

Aside from the number of ridiculous, repetitious short posts, which seem to serve no purpose but to get more house points, I remain unconvinced by Roband's song and dance routine. I do agree that investigating FAOT is a waste though. I've got lots of other targets.

[roband]

**NOT A GAME RELATED POST - DO NOT APPLY POINTS FOR THIS POST**

People have been asking questions or raising points which I feel deserve answers and/or replies. I have no interest in house points, as I've mentioned already. I want town to win the game, that is my priority.