The Resistance 4 (GAME OVER, Resistance win 3-1)

[webby]

The Resistance 4

Game type: Open
Speed: Turbo - 3 days for mission set-ups, 1 for mission phases
Bastardry: None
Flavour: FF6 - to be written by Lataro

How to play The Resistance (Please read carefully)

Spoiler:

1. There are two sides in the resistance – the Resistance (town), working to bring down an evil empire, and the Spies (scum), who work for that evil empire and who have infiltrated the Resistance.

2. The spies know one another but MAY NOT COMMUNICATE PRIVATELY, except for a 24 hour period at the start of the game or if a plot power allows them to. In a 10-player game, there will be 6 resistance operatives and 4 spies.

3. The game is divided into 5 missions.

4. Each mission is divided into a team proposal step (3 days long max), and a mission run step (1 day).

5. During the team proposal step, the team leader (randomly chosen first, and then proceeding down the player list) chooses the mission they wish to propose a team for (with the exception of the 5th mission, which may only be chosen if the Resistance has successfully completed two missions). They may then choose anyone in any combination they wish for the mission, including themselves. Failure to propose a team by deadline will result in the selection of a random team and mission, except that for spies I will randomise it such that there is a 50% chance that the team will be chosen only from resistance players (so that spies don't get an advantage by being, or pretending to be, absent).

6. ALL PLAYERS, including the current mission leader must then vote (either ACCEPT or REJECT) on the proposed team by PMing the mod, who will then reveal all players’ votes simultaneously and publicly - you will know who voted what. A tie counts as a REJECTED vote. Mission leaders default to ACCEPT on their own teams.

7. If a team is REJECTED by the majority (or tie) of players, the next player becomes the team leader and proposes another team for the mission. Failure to submit a vote on a team proposal by the deadline counts as an ACCEPTED vote.

8. If a team is ACCEPTED by the majority of players, any spies on the team, if any, must decide whether the mission succeeds or fails by PMing the Mod. Resistance players automatically decide the mission passes. Only spies have a choice. Failure to choose by the deadline counts as a MISSION FAIL. You may PM the mod with your decision before the team is approved, but there will always be at least and at most one day for this step.

9. If there is even ONE MISSION FAIL on a mission, the entire mission FAILS (except for the fourth mission, which must have two MISSION FAILURES to FAIL). Otherwise, the mission SUCCEEDS.

Please note the difference between ACCEPTING and REJECTING a proposed team and SUCCEEDING or FAILING/SABOTAGING a current mission.

10. The Resistance win the mission if it succeeds.

11. The Spies win the mission if it fails.

12. After a mission is completed (successfully by the resistance or sabotaged by spies), the next person on the list becomes the team leader.

13. The first team to win three missions, wins.

14. However, the Spies also win if there are ever 3 consecutive team rejections.

To propose a team (make bold):
The current team leader is: [__].
The current mission is: [__].

Proposed Team Member 1:
Proposed Team Member 2:
etc.

The players required per mission:
Mission 1: 3 players
Mission 2: 4 players
Mission 3: 4 players
Mission 4: 5* players (Requires 2 failures to fail)
Mission 5: 5 players

Plot Powers

Spoiler:

These are the plot powers, and how they work:

Once at the beginning of each new mission, the team leader will be given two plot powers to distribute amongst the players, except himself. PM the mod with who should receive which power before proposing a team. Permanent and immediate powers will be used on the appropriate player immediately. Team leaders must distribute plot powers before missions are proposed, but discussion is allowed before they are distributed.

The team leader then proposes the team normally.

To use a plot power, declare the plot power you are using publicly in the thread. Certain plot powers can only be used at specific times, please read carefully.

Some plot powers have duplicates; these are represented by x2 or x3.

Strong Leader x2
1 Time Use
The player who receives this plot power may become the Leader. If this is used on a mission that has not yet had a team proposed, that player also receives the normal two plot powers to distribute. Two of these may not be played consecutively. This power may only be used immediately during or after a mission for use on the next mission (before plot cards have been distributed), or on a mission that has already been rejected once (before a team has been proposed). This restarts the number of rejections.

Opinion Maker x2
Permanent
The player who receives this plot power must Vote first and publically for the rest of the game (Vote in-thread).

No Confidence x3
1 Time Use
The player who receives this plot power may null an approved team and force a leadership change. The next player in line becomes the mission leader. This counts as a REJECTED mission. This power may only be used after a team has been approved.

Overheard Conversation x2
Immediate
The player who receives this plot power must choose a player directly before or after them in the player list. They are told the role of the player they chose.

Keeping a Close Eye on You x2
1 Time Use
The player who receives this plot power is told whether a specific player succeeded or sabotaged the current mission. This power may only be used at the end of a mission.

In the Spotlight
1 Time Use
The player who receives this plot power may select another player who must submit their mission disposition publically (PASS/FAIL). This power may only be used after a team has been approved.

Take Responsibility
Immediate
The player who receives this plot power must immediately take a plot power at random from another player (includes Opinion Maker). This can be used on the current round of plot power distributions (though the player it was taken from is told what their stolen power was).

Establish Confidence
Immediate
The player who receives this plot power is told the role of the current mission leader.

Open Up
Immediate
The player who receives this plot power must choose another player. The chosen player is told their role (E.g. if A receives this card and chooses B, B is told the role of A).

Spy Plot Powers (NEW!):

Spoiler:

The spies will receive three of these plot powers at the start of the game, allocated randomly (not necessarily to different players). These are one-use and can be used by PMing the mod. It will not be revealed to the other players (including other spies) that a plot power has been used.

Deception
Use anytime
This player and one other player of their choice will come up as resistance to Overheard Conversation powers for the remainder of the mission.

Encryption
Use during mission phase
Choose a player. You may chat by PM to them (cc me on all PMs) for the mission phase.

Mutiny
Use during mission set-up (restarts the 3 days until deadline)
Choose a player this may be yourself). They are now the team leader. This restarts the number of rejections.

Secret Sabotage
Use during mission phase
Choose a player. Keeping a Close Eye on you will get the result that they PASSED the mission.

Planting the Evidence
Use anytime
Choose a player. For this mission cycle, any investigations performed on that player will get the result of 'FAILED' or 'SPY' (depending on what type of investigation it was).

Stowaway
Use during mission 4 only
You are a part of the mission team, however no other players will be told this and you will not appear in the post saying who PASSED or FAILED the mission.

More than most games, this one gets ruined by people going missing. I would like you to aim to post at least once per 24 hours unless you tell me otherwise. Not posting for 72 hours will get you a prod and I will seek to replace you if it goes beyond 96 hours (as this is one mission cycle).

For those who've played before, the rule changes are basically - 3 consecutive rejections instead of 5 is a resistance loss, failure to propose a team results in a random team rather than a rejection (except if the team leader is a spy, there's a 50-50 chance I will only select from the resistance players) and there are now spy plot powers.

Ask me if you need any clarification. Proposed changes to the rules are still welcomed (PM me or say so in the discussion thread), especially as I made up the spy plot powers myself.

Players:
1. Angua (ok, I'll bite)
2. rigwarl
3.t1mm01994 (It's super massive)
4. _infina_ (I call Lataro's team.)
5. Lataro ( phone sign up for the win)
6. BoomFrog
7. Silknor (Never Fade Away... (backwards combo!))
8. Gopher of Pern (Our Hopes And Expectations.)
9. Adam H. (Black Holes and Revelaaaaaations!)
10.The Masked Gecko (Don't waste your time or time will waste you (combo breaker))

Players required per mission:
Mission 1: 3 players
Mission 2: 4 players
Mission 3: 4 players
Mission 4: 5* players
Mission 5: 5 players

Standings
Mission 1: SUCCESS
Mission 2:
Mission 3:
Mission 4: SABOTAGED
Mission 5:

Missions Completed by the Resistance: 1
Missions Sabotaged by the Spies: 1


Please confirm you're here either in-thread or by replying to your role PM. Spies may not chat yet, I will tell them when their time begins. The game will likely start on Monday or Tuesday because I understand some people aren't around on the weekend, so it wouldn't be fair to put their nightchat then.

I'm now about to randomise and send out roles. Thanks to Lataro who has provided the flavour for these. Note that I will be using the terms 'Resistance' and 'Returners', as well as 'Spies' and 'Empire' interchangeably.

Here's a Returners Role PM so the spies can't get caught out by it:

You are a member of The Returners, an underground movement seeking to overthrow The Empire. Over time, The Empire has grown fast, and taken brutal actions to put down any effort to resist them. Born from the brutality, your movement has grown and is on the cusp of being able to take them down finally. However, your leaders have recently gone away on missions of their own, and while they left plans to be followed and key targets that need to be taken down, it has been made apparent based on some recent setbacks that there are traitors in your movement. In order to stop The Empire in it's quest for world dominion and harnessing the archaic forces of magic, you must find these traitors, all while preforming the missions left behind by your leaders, as their plans are counting on your success.

You are a member of the Resistance. You win if you successfully complete three missions. You lose if three missions are sabotaged or if there are three consecutive team rejections. Please confirm your presence in the game thread or by reply to this.

You may now confirm and/or ask me questions in the thread. Please don't discuss the game until I tell you you can.

[Gopher of Pern]

Cons are firmed, and Firmed are cons.

[rigwarl]

Hi I am here

[Lataro]

Down with The Empire!

[BoomFrog]

Up with the Returners!

[_infina_]

Here I am again. time to con some firms.

[Angua]

Confirming.

[t1mm01994]

'Allo 'Allo? Yes, this is confirming.. Where is the painting of the fallen madonna?

[Adam H]

confirm

[TheMaskedGecko]

The Masked Gecko reporting for duty. Let's go destroy an empire

[webby]

Ok, everyone's confirmed and it must be Monday pretty much everywhere in the world by now.

Spies may chat by PM (include me on all PMs) from now until 4:15pm AEDST (GMT+11) Tuesday (24 hours from this post). I will then pick a team leader at random, give the spies three random powers and the game will start properly. You will then have the usual three days to propose a mission team.

You are allowed to post if you want to during these 24 hours, but I wouldn't advise talking about strategy etc. while the spies are chatting.

[Lataro]

I think a good strat would be for the spies to publicly claim.

Spies, please take this under advisement as you discuss your plans.

[Gopher of Pern]

Only a Cylonspy would say such a thing! You're the Cylon! Spy!

(Been playing alot of Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game recently. Good fun!)

[webby]

Long gone are the days where the force known as "magic" ruled the world. It exists now only in the stories of bards and in legends passed down though the ages. Still, the rumor of such a power is enough to drive some to seek, and control it, at all costs. To that end, a small nation set out to find all evidence of this force, and gain understanding of it. What started as a quest for knowledge quickly turned into a quest for power, as The Empire, as it came to be known, swiftly spread over the world. Not content only to seek the knowledge, they sought to use it to control the world, and were fearful of others using this force against them. As each nation fell to their control, they learned more about this mystical force, and it's origins, until they were able to unlock it's secrets, and eventually, harness this power to build frightful weapons.

Gone were the ideals of knowledge and betterment, now all that remained was control. Control over the knowledge gained, for fear that it could be used against them, and control of the people, who they had subjected to their rule as they tore across the world seeking lost secrets. The Empire brutally suppressed all those who challenged them, and grew distrustful of those claiming loyalty, for fear that they would be betrayed. This leads us to today, where while they may control much of the land and it's people, the people's hearts cry out for freedom, and The Returners were born. Formed for one purpose, to restore the world to the peace it enjoyed before The Empire grew out of control. However, in order to do that, they would have to understand the forces of magic, and learn to combat this force their foe so expertly wielded against any who stood in it's path.

The Returners grew strong with time, attracting many underground supporters, and an active core of members who had learned to harness the power of magic as well, and were working to undermine, and ultimately, take down The Empire. Here, as the two forces battle it out, and the breaking point nears, where one or the other must give out, we witness, the final battles.




Spy chat has now finished and the game begins.

The first mission has begun.

The current team leader is: Gopher of Pern (Adam H on deck).
The current mission is: [_]

Current Team Member 1:
Current Team Member 2:
Current Team Member 3:
Add others as necessary.

Plot powers have been provided to the team leader. They must be distributed by the team leader before a team may be proposed, but discussion is permitted to aid the team leader in the distribution. The three powers are Keeping a Close Eye on You, Strong Leader and Opinion Maker.

Consecutive Rejected Teams: 0

I note that I've made a couple of other slight alterations to how jayhsu usually ran it. Firstly, a Strong Leader or Mutiny power will restart the rejected teams count (although No Confidence does not). Secondly, I am revealing what powers were given to the team leader. Finally, when a power is used that changes the team leader, I will reveal what power was used (although not who used it). I believe that these alterations stop the reduction to three consecutive failures losing from being unbalanced.

Don't forget to choose which mission you want to do as well as who will be on the team.

Failure by the team leader to propose a team before deadline will result in a team being chosen by a method that is unfavourable to the faction of the team leader. If the team leader is a spy, a random team will be chosen with a 50% chance of being chosen only from the resistance players. If the team leader is resistance, the team has a 50% chance of being 1 spy + the rest are random players of any faction.

I think I've made it so that in general it doesn't favour resistance to instruct the team leader not to propose a team, but in case I haven't, please don't attempt to game the system in this way. I'm sure I can think of punishments.

Deadline will be three days from now, 4:15pm AEDST (UTC+11) on Friday 17th February.

[Adam H]

OK, well the last resistance game I played was my first game on these forums and I was a bit timid. But no more mr. nice guy; here's how to win this game:

In the previous resistance games we've had systems for picking the mission teams, and I've become absolutely convinced that's a bad idea. It's analogous to random lynching rather than lynching based on something (doesn't even really matter what). Though we don't have long before GoP needs to submit a team so I'm not sure how much content we can get.

I'm rejecting missions that don't have me on it. I'd encourage everyone to do the same - OBVIOUSLY you can't reject 100% of the time if everyone is doing it, but that's no reason not to reject 90% of the time.

We might not want to say what plot powers we're getting. Some of the spy plot powers can counter our town plot powers, so hiding that information from spies might be a good idea. Then again, chances are good (40%) that the leader (and distributer of town plot powers) is a spy. But if I'm distributing plot powers, I might consider lying about a power and then giving it to a confirmed town. Since I know I'm town.

And the last opinion I have is that I think we should propose missions in the order listed, from fewest people on a mission to most people on a mission. The one thing I'm not sure about is the fourth mission. If spies have that secret sabotage power, then the fourth mission is going to be really really hard to pass. We might want to go on that first just to get it out of the way.


Let the arguing begin!

[Adam H]

EBWOP: Just saw that the town plot powers are public knowledge (Keeping a Close Eye on You, Strong Leader and Opinion Maker). So disregard my fourth paragraph above.

[rigwarl]

Hmm, thoughts about cards:

Strong Leader seems kind of useless. Since Resistance is majority and should probably be in agreement with optimal play, anyone who goes against the current leader's votes (unless they are confirmed spy) is suspicious. Anyway I say we just give this to... t1mm, since he is directly across from GoP just in case there are a bunch of spies in a row on deck. Whoever gets this should not use it unless everyone agrees they should.

Opinion Maker seems 100% useless and I say we just give this to the most active person to keep the game moving. I'm willing to take this card since I am pretty active and will have internet access for most of the day for the rest of the game. (I'm not trying to make myself important I just really think this card is totally useless.)

Spy does have the power to fudge KACOEOY (Keeping A Close Eye On You), but it's only like a 12% chance or so that'll happen so I think we have to assume it will work unless there is HUGE evidence otherwise. This is our only good card. I think to avoid making it too easy on spies, whoever gets this should use it at their own discretion, but definitely not on mission 1- see details below...

I agree we should start with mission 1 because it gives us the most information for future turns (if we fail any other one, we learn that there is at least 1 spy out of 3 people we picked. Not so useful as that is pretty much super likely just by chance anyway). Here is my suggested plan: 2 random people, if it passes, great. 1 mission down. If it doesn't, then we can treat both of those players as likely spies and we're playing a 5v3 without using them on missions later, which seems good. I will volunteer to be one of those 2 people since I obviously know I am resistance, and from my PoV we have a 66% chance to pass mission one, which is pretty much as good as we're going to get.

I don't understand Adam H's plan of rejecting any team without you. That means that only 2/10 people should accept the first mission (???) until we absolutely have to? That seems bad because in the 40% chance the 3rd leader is a spy, he can guarantee a fail by putting either 1 or 2 spies on the team. Or even worse, if there are two spies in a row, only ONE mission rejection is needed and then we have a guaranteed fail.

I have a rulings questions about KACOEOY: if I want to use it say on our next mission, and the mission succeeds, can I choose not to use it or do I have to declare it before results are known?

[rigwarl]

Doh for some reason I thought Mission 1 was 2 people. Anyway I still think we should start with it for the same reasons. I think KACEOY should be used on a random member of the team, by someone who is not on the team. Unfortunately this could be really bad if KACEOY ends up in a spy's hands but there will always be that risk no matter what.

[rigwarl]

AHHH TRIPLE POST ALREADY. Sorry this is my first forum game, I need to get better at this.

Apparently I misread Secret Sabotage too. If they have that (1/2 chance), then they have a 100% chance of nulling KACEOY if they know what mission we're using it since they probably have some system like "first alphabetical" sabotages like spies had last game. So, in that case, I think whoever gets KACOEY should use it at their own discretion on probably either missions 1 through 3.

[Lataro]

To the above, I think it is a horrible idea to do as suggested with powers. Personally, I am planning now to reject any team with rigwarl on it for his horrible comment on powers. As always, in lieu of a good reason to doubt someone, I think discussion is good to have to go back to at a later date, but that GOP should make the call himself on who gets powers. As for the team, I do think m4 would be ideal. I'll post more later on my reasoning when I'm not posting from my phone.

[Adam H]

I don't understand Adam H's plan of rejecting any team without you. That means that only 2/10 people should accept the first mission (???) until we absolutely have to?

Here's what I would expect to happen if my plan was taken seriously. 1 or 2 towns refuse to see reason, and accept the vast majority of missions that they are not on. The rest reject most of the time (say, 80%). And spies will be much more likely to accept missions if there's another spy on the mission. Therefore a typical mission proposal will narrowly pass, and an enormous amount of pressure is put on spies to not seem conspicuous when they accept a soon-to-be failed mission.

You said yourself how much better the odds are if you are on the mission. Why would you not push for that?

Opinion Maker is useless only if given to town, but it is actually a good way to keep scum in line. Strong Leader could be bad if given to scum, but since it restarts the 3 consecutive missions, it's not that big of a deal. And for KaEoY, you have to tell the mod that you are using it before the mission ends. And I think we probably want the player with KaEoY to be on the mission as well.

they probably have some system like "first alphabetical" sabotages like spies had last game.

I realize you probably read through the last game, but this still calls for a minor FoS. It's pretty certain that the spies sent around that old spy strategy in their little pow-wow, and it's much less certain that you would have read all the way through the last page of R3.

[rigwarl]

I don't understand Adam H's plan of rejecting any team without you. That means that only 2/10 people should accept the first mission (???) until we absolutely have to?

Here's what I would expect to happen if my plan was taken seriously. 1 or 2 towns refuse to see reason, and accept the vast majority of missions that they are not on. The rest reject most of the time (say, 80%). And spies will be much more likely to accept missions if there's another spy on the mission. Therefore a typical mission proposal will narrowly pass, and an enormous amount of pressure is put on spies to not seem conspicuous when they accept a soon-to-be failed mission.

You said yourself how much better the odds are if you are on the mission. Why would you not push for that?

Opinion Maker is useless only if given to town, but it is actually a good way to keep scum in line. Strong Leader could be bad if given to scum, but since it restarts the 3 consecutive missions, it's not that big of a deal. And for KaEoY, you have to tell the mod that you are using it before the mission ends. And I think we probably want the player with KaEoY to be on the mission as well.

they probably have some system like "first alphabetical" sabotages like spies had last game.

I realize you probably read through the last game, but this still calls for a minor FoS. It's pretty certain that the spies sent around that old spy strategy in their little pow-wow, and it's much less certain that you would have read all the way through the last page of R3.

I don't see how Opinion Maker helps keep spies in line because you get to see their vote shortly after anyway. In fact like I said I don't see how this card does anything, but I'll drop this for now as I don't think it's that important to discuss. If someone wants something to do with it they can come back to it later.

On to the more important things:

You said your plan pressures spies to accept. Well, if the spies reject, then only one out of six resistance members needs to reject it, then you have only 1 more chance to do the plan. Remember that on the third mission, everyone has to accept.

Actually I don't see why it's unlikely that a first time forum-gamer would have read an old resistance game to see how the game actually works. Anyway a FoS is fine which leads into my next point, that...

While from my PoV I know I'm resistance, obviously this is the same for everyone. So pushing any harder for myself to be on the first mission team (which I did request in my first post, btw) is kind of pointless if everyone does it since it seems to be assumed everyone would want themselves on the team. I mean, let me ask a question to everyone, does anyone NOT want to be on the first team? Am I more likely to be on it if I yell PICK ME PICK ME PICK ME

@Lataro: Yea like I said I've never played any of these before so it's not unlikely my plan is horrible. Awaiting your explanation why, and also would like an explanation from Adam H why KACEOY should be given to someone on the first team.

[_infina_]

I would like to see Lataro picked for the team, and given Opinion Maker. He will either be the most well thought out member of the resistance, or the most devious of the spies. forcing him from the beginning to be open about his pass/fails will at least keep him in line until we get the second KaCEoY, which we can then use on him or someone who is close to the middle.

I do not want strong leader. That plot power is just to full of wine for me. I am not as strongly opposed to KaCEoY, but I would prefer not to be in charge of that one, either.

As for missions, I say do mission 1 first, with a list of names generated by random.org, and then we can move on from there.

I don't see how Opinion Maker helps keep spies in line because you get to see their vote shortly after anyway. In fact like I said I don't see how this card does anything, but I'll drop this for now as I don't think it's that important to discuss. If someone wants something to do with it they can come back to it later.

You don't see the pass/fail, only the accept/reject.

[Adam H]

let me ask a question to everyone, does anyone NOT want to be on the first team?

Spies do not care if they're on the mission team. They will just pretend to care. We've gotta trap them in this lie, which actually shouldn't be that hard if we play it right.

Along those lines, Opinion Maker can eliminate several bad endgame scenarios. Say two spies are pretending to be convinced that the other is a spy. Then if Spy A is on a mission, Spy B has to pretend to want to reject even though he really plans on accepting. Opinion Maker makes that impossible.

Since we don't have anything to go on, my only criteria for opinion maker is that it should be given to someone who is not going to just accept every mission blindly. Cause then it would definitely be worthless.

and also would like an explanation from Adam H why KACEOY should be given to someone on the first team.

Eh, I remember that's what we decided last game. I honestly don't think it matters much - I'm having a really hard time coming up with pros and cons. Let's assume a failed 3 player mission - if the watcher is on the team and claims a pass, then either the watcher is scum (and possibly the watchee is scum), or the third player is scum. If the watcher is not on the team, then either the watcher is scum and the 'watchee' are scum, or either of the other two players is scum. I could keep doing that with all the options but I'm too lazy, and I'm pretty sure it slightly favors putting the watcher on the mission team.

[rigwarl]

Spies do not care if they're on the mission team.

The only reasonable way for spies to win is by getting on the mission team.

[Lataro]

logic for M4 now that I'm at my computer:

We have KACEOY, we give it to one player. For this purpose, we need one person that we "kinda trust" RNG says more times than not, we'll get a resistance player, strictly playing the odds. Using any fairly random method to pick a team for M4, one person is given KACEOY. We run M4. There are now a few possible results:

1 spy on the team, but no spy power to help fail it. M4 passes.
2 spies on the team, M4 fails.
1 spy on the team, plus the power, M4 fails.
0 spies on the team, M4 passes regardless of spy power.

KACEOY is used if there is any fails. This is where it gets fun. In order to get anything meaningful from this, the easiest assumption is that the KACEOY person is resistance. Now, before getting into further assumptions...

Do other spies know what powers their buddies got?

The above will just help to know in general, however, specific to this, a single spy may not know that a spy buddy has the ability to add a fail to M4, and thus, may pass the mission to avoid detection needlessly.

Anyway, if the fails, or if there is only one fail, the ability can be used on a random person. Again, spy power stuff can be used, here, however, this forces the spies to burn 1-2 of their three powers right off the bat, and will give us some fun information to play with. General idea here is that M4 has good odds, we can get decent info from it with one of the members having KACEOY, and I think it'd be nice to burn that spy power to confuse KACEOY, if they even have it, right off the bat so that later missions if we get the other one, it can be trusted.

I know I made the M4 argument in the last games as well, as a spy that game, however, then as now, I truly believe it to be the best move for resistance, more so here with the powers we have to play with.

As for OP and SL, I've already made comments on how I think those should work, namely, GOP deciding, but discussion occurring so that people can be held accountable for what they thought if it matters down the road.

[webby]

l

Do other spies know what powers their buddies got?

I sent out the spy powers after spy chat had finished. For each power, I sent the PM only to the spy that was receiving that power.

[Silknor]

I'm rejecting missions that don't have me on it. I'd encourage everyone to do the same - OBVIOUSLY you can't reject 100% of the time if everyone is doing it, but that's no reason not to reject 90% of the time.

I read what you posted later and I'm still not understanding why you propose this plan (you refer to the spies behavior changing when there is another spy on the proposed team, but statistically, the chance of a spy being on any given mission team besides the 3 person one is quite high*). However, regardless of you're right or wrong about the first two missions for a given day, it's important that everyone vote to accept the 3rd team proposal for any given day:

14. However, the Spies also win if there are ever 3 consecutive team rejections.

*Am I missing something here? It says:

Failure to propose a team by deadline will result in the selection of a random team and mission, except that for spies I will randomise it such that there is a 50% chance that the team will be chosen only from resistance players (so that spies don't get an advantage by being, or pretending to be, absent)

As I see it, the chance of 0 spies on a team of is:
3: 1-6/10*5/9*4/8=83.3%
4: 1-6/10*5/9*4/8*3/7=92.8%
5: 1-6/10*5/9*4/8*3/7*2/6=97.6%

So either I'm greatly confused, or the part about the spies not getting an advantage is backwards.

[BoomFrog]

AdamH's "plan" is assinine. Rejecting all teams without "me" is not really an option because if you don't accept GoP's team then you must accept AdamH or TMG's team. Your proposal is basically, "hay let's let TMG unilaterally decide the team. If we're going to let one person unilaterally decide the team it should be GoP since he was actually chosen randomly. Although we probably want someone else to do it actually since GoP is distributing powers and it would be nice to not put all our eggs in one basket.

Since we have an investigation power already I agree that we should do mission 1 or 4. And I have to agree with Lataro that mission 4 gives the spies a lower chance to mess with our investigation.

If we do Mission 4: Assuming 2 spies and 3 resistance with a resistance holding KACEOY. (3 spies and 2 resistance has the same result as well since one spy will pass the mission. 4 spies is similar but no chance of planting the evidence being used.)
1/4 chance that spies have both secret sabotage and planting the evidence
....1 protected spy, 1 exposed spy, 1 framed resistance, 1 resistance. so 1/2 chance of an accurate result.
1/4 chance spies have SS but no PE
...1 protected spy, 1 exposed spy, 2 resistance. so fail is accurate and pass is 2/3 accurate
1/4 chance spies don't have SS but have PE
...2 exposed spy, 1 framed, 1 resist. pass is accurate. fail is 2/3 accurate
1/4 spies have no applicable powers.
... 100% accuracy.

if KACEOY sees a FAIL is is (1/4)*(1/2)+)(1/4)+(1/4)*(2/3)+(1/4)= 79% accurate.
Pass is also 79% accurate.

AND I just realized I messed that all up because if they have stowaway who is not on the mission then they only need one spy on the mission to fail and KACEOY is less useful, but still pretty good. It's pretty unlikely that the spies three powers are all three that mess with these results right now. Also if they use stowaway then at least we will know what one of their powers was. Better to get it out of the way now.

If the stowaway power is used on mission 4 and one spy on the mission fails we will see 4 pass and one fail as the result but the mission will fail, correct?

KACEOY is used before we know if the mission passed or failed, correct?

Btw, for powers I recommend AdamH not get Strong Leader or KACEOY. Opinion maker on Lataro sounds fine. :p I'd like everyone to post more so we can have something to go on for our decisions.

[Gopher of Pern]

I am going to propose mission 1 first. With KaEoY, this will give us the best way to get some early info.

Do you guys think I should just distribute the powers randomly? I think that might be better that way, as the spies are more likely to be vocal about the distribution of powers.

Every game, I believe, the team who won the first mission won the game. The first mission is critical. If we do not get either a win, or good knowledge of who the spies are, to win.

If I choose to distribute the powers randomly, I will have whoever was chosen for KaCEoY on the team, along with one other random member, along with me. This should give us the best distribution of people, to get the most knowledge.

If I'm not choosing random, here are my feelings so far.

Adam H didn't read the opening, so is obviously a spy. Their plan of rejecting is also stupid. A;; it would do is cause the 3rd in line to have ABSOLUTE POWER, which means if they're a spy, we're boned, and if their not, well, we might be boned.

I dont follow rigwarls reasoning on SL, or OM. They also did not read the opening, so is obviously spy.

Infina is playing the meta, which makes sense.

Lataro is being Lataro. I'm not sure I follow them on the M4 business. It might be different with the new spy powers, but It was better to leave that mission til later, hopefully once we've eliminated a spy or 2.

Silknor, I believe that 50% is such that there is a 50% chance of the entire team being resistance, and 50% chance of the team being completely random.

[webby]

If the stowaway power is used on mission 4 and one spy on the mission fails we will see 4 pass and one fail as the result but the mission will fail, correct?

The use of a stowaway power would lead to the result being reported as if there were six players on the mission.

KACEOY is used before we know if the mission passed or failed, correct?

After the mission is accepted or rejected, but before it is passed or failed. It will not be made public that it has been used.

About 45 hours until deadline. I'm reasonably happy with the level of activity so far, although if Angua or tim don't post by the time I wake up tomorrow, they will be prodded. A reminder that powers must be distributed before a mission team can be proposed.

[BoomFrog]

Doing M1 first will make KACEOY essentially useless. The only benefit would be using up the spies potential powers. Since we may never get another KACEOY then if they have the Anti-KACEOY then they will probably use it.

Although there is the traditional benefit that if we somehow manage to pick a winning team we will have a core of probably reliable mission runners. But the chances of that are quite small as Silknor pointed out. *actually looks at silknor's numbers* Umm, you are greatly confused...

As I see it, the chance of 0 spies on a team of is:
3: 1-6/10*5/9*4/8=83.3%
4: 1-6/10*5/9*4/8*3/7=92.8%
5: 1-6/10*5/9*4/8*3/7*2/6=97.6%

These are the chances of having at least one spy on the team. You've got it flipped.

So anyway, what we need is information, and KACEOY is completely useless on M1 while it is somewhat reliable on M4 but both missions will likely cause the spies to use up any powers they have. And with the possible existence of Stowaway I think M1 will be easier to pass later then M4 so I think we're better off saving it.

Although, we could get more info out of KACEOY if we do M1 and then let the holder of the power decide to use it or not. We then give the spies a 50/50 chance of using their powers at the wrong time.

[TheMaskedGecko]

I will admit that my head is spinning from the amount of info in this game and I'm having to get to grips with a completely new way of playing.

It seems that standard play is to use M1 at the start of the game to gather information. Unfortunately the secret sabotage, evidence planting and stowaway powers make this impossible. Which is why I suggest we go with mission four first. Our chances of getting a decent team on it are reduced anyway, so we might as well spam it with powers to gather info. This would either lead to a similar amount of info as we would have got from M1 or scum using up their useful powers early on.

[Angua]

Ok, this is my first resistance, and I"m not feeling well at the moment (haven't eaten since Monday night), so I'm having trouble getting my head around things. However, maybe we should do the first mission, and have the two people under GoP go on it - as they are going to be team leaders soon anyway (because team leader is next on the list, right?). That way we'll know if we're likely to not have our next two missions sabotaged from the outset.

However, if I'm missing something here, feel free to let me know.

[rigwarl]

I dont follow rigwarls reasoning on SL, or OM. They also did not read the opening, so is obviously spy.

My reasoning on OM is that since you find out very shortly after anyway (I guess except for mission 5), no one is going to claim to do vote to reject a team and then ninja-accept it since they would be proved lying, basically outed as a spy immediately after, no? With a majority of resistance members and 45 hours, I don't understand why we can't agree on a something and then unanimously pass the vote?

SL was referring to the fact that 3 spies in a row can guarantee fail a mission.

Also I don't follow your reasoning that misreading something (which I immediately corrected) is more likely to be a spy. The only thing I can think of is that they have more stuff to keep track of, but it seems like a silly reason to claim "obviously" spy.

Anyway, I'm curious on the way webby phrased his response about spy's knowing other powers. I think it was pretty interesting so I'm a bit surprised no one commented on it- it seems that they have made a code to divulge powers? It would be pretty easy to do something like "If you have power #4, put 4 paragraphs in your first post. If you have no power, put at least 7 paragraphs in your first post, etc.", and I think it's safest to assume that the spies probably did something like that that. Of course maybe webby's response is standard for mafia games, you guys obviously know webby better than I do.

Anyway, I changed my mind about mission 1 first, and think we should go for mission 4 with all random members, basically for GoP's reasoning (I know he wanted mission 1) quoted here: Every game, I believe, the team who won the first mission won the game. The first mission is critical. Except, we only have a 17% chance of passing mission 1 with random members.

Finally, since there's a 40% chance GoP is spy, so I'm not going to trust it if he says "OK guys random.org picked X, Y, Z" (sorry GoP!), is there a way we can use an algorithm as a team that we can confirm 100% is random?

[Adam H]

Dumb, dumb, dumb. I let the spies get away with this last game but I refuse to follow like a sheep again.

Rejecting all teams without "me" is not really an option because if you don't accept GoP's team then you must accept AdamH or TMG's team.

NO! Rejecting all teams without me on it does NOT mean that GoP's team doesn't get accepted! Say it's just a plain old 3 player mission, and no teams have been rejected yet. We don't know anything about the players on the team or anything. The 3 players on the proposed team will probably accept. The 3-4 spies not on the mission will probably accept if there's a spy on the mission (there's about a 90% chance of that, btw). That leaves 3-4 players who should probably reject. If not, then we gain no information. That's all I'm saying. You are just throwing out stupid strawman arguments of "but everyone will just reject and then we lose Gee Willikers", but no, not everyone will reject.

This really is like a D1 lynch. We almost surely are going to lynch a townie, and we can only hope to get as much info from it as possible.

is there a way we can use an algorithm as a team that we can confirm 100% is random?

How about we assign letters to names (first/second letter of username), then pick an obscure upcoming event/speech/article that hasn't come out yet, and then go through the opening sentence letter by letter and pick the first 4 that come up.


FoS: GoP for reading through the rules so carefully. Only a spy would be so nitpicky.

[rigwarl]

I think the flaw in your logic is that you think spies will vote yes on it just because there is a spy on the team. If they vote no, there's still a 83% chance there will be on a spy on the next team (and if not? Adam H votes no, all 4 spies vote no, we go to team 3!!), then on the 3rd team obviously everyone has to vote yes, which means that not only is there that 83% chance there's a spy, there's a 40% chance before then that the leader was a spy and 100% put one on the team.

Your random algorithm is good. After I posted I thought about using the weather in a random location at this exact time tomorrow or something, anyway as long as it works =)

[rigwarl]

To clarify, rejecting missions seems good for spies. Is there any benefit at all for Resistance to rejecting the first one, over just having our team agree who to send on the first mission (preferably random, right?) BEFORE GoP proposes it, and having everyone unanimously accept?

Sorry I will work on not double posting.

[Adam H]

Oh yeah that's a real flaw. For the first mission, we have 5 rejections twice consecutively. Maybe a couple rejections are from players on the mission team. And then TMG's mission must go through. So we fail the first mission, and we have 2 failed mission votes to analyze, and don't forget the spies have been really obvious about it, even rejecting the mission when they are on it!

That's SO MUCH BETTER than randomly selecting the team, unanimously accepting it, and then having it fail.

[Adam H]

EBWOP: Spies absolutely do not want to, in general, reject missions. Sure, they want to reject missions that don't have spies on them, but that's almost certainly not even going to happen!