The Resistance 4 (GAME OVER, Resistance win 3-1)

[webby]

As order was slowly taking the place in the chaos of the news that traitors may exist within the group, a number of ad hoc leaders stepped up, and a group of rebels were sent to the docks in South Figaro to destroy the ship carrying in the newest magi-tek weapons that were on it's way. This mission was vital, for victory against The Empire would be difficult indeed if the troops up north were resupplied with these devastating weapons.

The Returners waited for word of success back at their base, however, as night turned to the following morning, it became clear that there were no survivors that were coming to report back. The group quickly turned on one another, and accusations of treason were hurled in every direction. When the group settled, a single voice spoke out, it was a scout who had been sent to monitor the docks before the attack.

He reported that The Empire had been laying in wait for their team, and that The Returners sent had stood no chance. The Empire had unloaded their new weapons, and were marching north on the base! If The Returners failed to put together a plan to defend themselves, all could be lost!


Mission Disposition:

SUCCESS
SUCCESS
SUCCESS
FAILURE
FAILURE

First Mission: SABOTAGED!

Missions completed by the Resistance: 0
Missions sabotaged by the Spies: 1

There will be a brief pause here while I give a chance for anyone who may have powers that may be used at the end of the mission to decide whether or not they wish to use them. (In the future I'll ask that you say during the mission phase if you want to use such a power, you can make this conditional on how many fails there are). No posting in the thread during this time please. Second mission set-up will start in sometime between 18 and 24 hours.

Thanks to Lataro for the flavour!

[webby]

The second mission has begun.

The current team leader is: Adam H (TheMaskedGecko on deck).
The current mission is: [_]

Current Team Member 1:
Current Team Member 2:
Current Team Member 3:
Add others as necessary.

Plot powers have been provided to the team leader. They must be distributed by the team leader before a team may be proposed, but discussion is permitted to aid the team leader in the distribution. The three powers are No Confidence, In the Spotlight, and Overheard Conversation.

Consecutive Rejected Teams: 0

Don't forget to choose which mission you want to do as well as who will be on the team.

Deadline will be three days from now, 9:45am AEDST (UTC+11) on Thursday 23rd February.

[Lataro]

KACEOY results of passed on timmy.

Naturally, with two spies on the team to fail it without the need for any powers, GoP goes on the likely spy list.

That leaves a likely spy between Silknor and BF, I'm leaning towards BF.

This leaves a number of people rather clear. Taking us 5 out of the mix, there are 7 other players, and one spy among them. Clearly, no one that went on M4 is cleared for future missions.

So, where does that leave us?

We do M1, if it fails, we have 4 cleared people for M2 and M3 from those that don't go on M4 or M1. That leaves us with VERY good odds going into M5.

Though we lost the first mission, we are in a super awesome position here IMO.

[Lataro]

disregard that. Forgot there were 4 spies in this game since it's bigger than last ones, will revise in a bit.

[Adam H]

Taking the five out of the mix, that leaves 7? Better check your math.

My suspicion would be that lataro and GoP are both scum, since GoP gave a powerful plot power to lataro. T1mm is probably towniest of anyone from the kaceoy result. I would rather not over-react by saying that none of these 5 people should go on future missions. We only know that 2 of them are spies, but that leaves 2 out of the other five.

I'm leaning towards myself, tmg, and t1mm to go on M1. Let me know what you all think of that team and the powers that I have to give out.

[Lataro]

Yeah, I said I messed that up already numbers wise.

You three on M1 is good with me. The path of least resistance says Timmy is town and the result isn't from the scum power altering his reply. It's risky, but if it works it'll pay off in the long run to know that it's only 4 from M4 that are set aside. Losing resistance to spies at 1 to 1 ratio is great IMO.

[_infina_]

Yeah, I said I messed that up already numbers wise.

You three on M1 is good with me. The path of least resistance says Timmy is town and the result isn't from the scum power altering his reply. It's risky, but if it works it'll pay off in the long run to know that it's only 4 from M4 that are set aside. Losing resistance to spies at 1 to 1 ratio is great IMO.

Even at that rate we will lose people too quickly to make it sustainable. All of the missions need more than two players on them, making 1 to 1 losses unacceptable. All the spies need to do now is lose their players at 1 per mission to get a win now. They may not even need to get on a mission to sabotage it with the new spy plot powers.
How I would like to see the next mission is mission 1 with Adam H, rigwarl, and either myself or Angua.
Not sure yet on how I would like to see powers distributed.

[Lataro]

Good news everyone...

Gopher.of.Pern 1.0 9 10

If GoP is scum, we got a 90% chance of winning, according to the meta thread data!

[BoomFrog]

They may not even need to get on a mission to sabotage it with the new spy plot powers.

Maybe you should actually read the spies powers. Only stowaway lets a spy on a mission that he was not elected to and that only works on M4 which is over-with and so can't be used against us.

Anyway, if GoP is a spy then Lataro is probably a spy, but I doubt they would have put more then two spies on the team so t1mm is still actually probably town.

If GoP is town then the spies are either Silknor+Lataro or Lataro+T1mm. The only way Silknor+T1mm works is if they used their Anti-KACEOY power on the right target and I think it was not obvious who Lataro would target. So I'm feeling good about t1mm but bad about Lataro.

Let's give No Confidence and Overheard Conversation to t1mm and he can decide who to check. And we give In the Spotlight to, say Angua since she didn't go on M4 and she isn't adjacent to t1mm. Then Angua, t1mm, and t1mm's checked person go on M1.

If we can get 4 people we trust we can win this without having to do the dangerous M5.

[Gopher of Pern]

Good news everyone...

Gopher.of.Pern 1.0 9 10

If GoP is scum, we got a 90% chance of winning, according to the meta thread data!

You know that one game I won as scum? It was Resistance!

But realistically, this puts me in a bad position, as the leader of that last mission. All I can say is that I thought lurkers would be more likely to be resistance, but I could have been wrong about that. Or wrong about Lataro.

At this stage, 5 of us have gone on a mission that failed, with at least 2 players in those 5 being spy. The other 5 have at most 2 spies among them. The information from KaCEoY is iffy, at best. Even if we confirm Lataro as town, there is no guarantee that t1mm is town, due to the possibility of scum powers.

As the chattiest player so far today, I have a few beefs with Lataro. First there is mixing up the numbers. Then there's the 1 to 1 ratio thing. It is never good to lose missions to discover 1 spy, especially now. 1 more lost mission means we have to do mission 5, which means we need 5 confirmed townies. Basically, if we fail 1 mission, to discover 1 spy, that means there are still 3 spies out there, and we'll need to succeed the next 3 missions. I would also like to know why they chose t1mm.

As for the powers - No Confidence could be deadly in the hands of a spy. T1mm might be a good candidate for it. They are not 100% town, but I would be inclined to trust them abit more than any random person. In The Spotlight, I guess doesn't matter too much who gets it, as we can make them use it on whoever we like. Or we can pick a towny person who's judgement we trust. Overheard Conversation would probably be best played on Silknor. That way, they can check either myself or Boomfrog, when we've both been on mission 1. I would of course prefer BF, as I know that I'm town, but it probably has the best bang for the buck at this stage of the game.

[Angua]

Ok, so life will probably be best with a smaller mission. Do we automatically have to do m5 when we've done 3 missions? I thought the option just because open.

I think it's interesting that now we have Adam H for a team leader, plus a no-confidence power. I still think they're scummy, so we should force a leadership change. However, I accept this might be jumping the gun a bit - I just wanted that possibility out there.

For the next mission, I think it should probably be me, riwarl and one other (presumably team leader).

More later - I just wanted to get this in before lectures though.

[BoomFrog]

Why don't you want to take t1mm?

[t1mm01994]

Bigger post incoming, but I still have a Strong Leader power lying around. If I understood what I read there correctly, I can take the wheel before TMG does.
On Lataro, I'm pretty okay with him this game.. Just same ol' Lataro he was in hogwarts. So I'm inclined to believe that 2 of GoP, BF and TMG are scum

I don't know what to make of Adam's rejection last mission, especially the "joking" point for BF. I'm not sure I'm happy with any of this mission + Adam to lead a mission, so I'll probably reject this one if Adam is on it and then propose a new team without them. Don't shoot me for this yet, more thought and content coming tonight.

[Angua]

Why don't you want to take t1mm?

I'm still not sure if we should trust them? Putting all our eggs in one basket is a bit risky. However, if more people think it's worth the risk then we should take t1mm.

[Adam H]

"Putting all our eggs in one basket" doesn't make any sense, Angua. Everyone is a risk, it only matters who is least risky.

FoS: Lataro for messing up the numbers horribly, claiming that he admitted to messing up the numbers (when in fact he only admitted to messing up one part), saying that he'd fix his post later and then never did.

GoP pushing for No Confidence to t1mm pings me a bit. If GoP, Lataro, and t1mm are scum, then the no confidence/strong leader to t1mm combo means a guaranteed failed mission. And GoP and Lataro are most likely to be scum, IMO, so t1mm looks worse to me now. Then again, I just said that t1mm was the towniest player, so I'm only being paranoid, I guess.

Let's give No Confidence and Overheard Conversation to t1mm and he can decide who to check. And we give In the Spotlight to, say Angua since she didn't go on M4 and she isn't adjacent to t1mm. Then Angua, t1mm, and t1mm's checked person go on M1.

Boomfrog's idea is actually pretty good, I award him many townie points. I think it's likely that either t1mm or his checked person will be spy regardless of the mission result though, but they'll be virtually forced to pass it anyways. Though I'm not convinced that the no confidence should go to the strong leader. I'd rather spread out the powers, I think. I haven't thought much about it though so I could be easily swayed.

No Confidence: leaning towards infina, especially if t1mm checks him.
Overheard Confidence: t1mm
In the Spotlight: Angua

[Angua]

I'm confused - GoP giving T1mm no confidence is scummy, but bf suggesting it isn't?

[Lataro]

I'm tempted to just stop posting now...

How about some reserve psychology to fix things up, since apparently every damned post I make is scummy.

Don't run a team with Adam H, timmy, and someone not scummy on it.

You should run a team with rig, GoP, and Silknor on it.

Maybe that'll work since every damned thing I say here is treated as the opposite must be good.

[Adam H]

I'm confused - GoP giving T1mm no confidence is scummy, but bf suggesting it isn't?

My point was that t1mm looks scummier.

Geez lataro, overreact much? Soooooooo scummy!

[rigwarl]

If GoP was a spy, he might have given KACEOY to another spy. Another possibility is Lataro is spy and "cleared" the other spy on the mission, also I suggest reading t1mm's most recent post with this possibility in mind and see what you think. I am unsure myself.

[rigwarl]

I have a rules question about timing:

1) So t1mm can Strong Leader right now if he wants? Adam H can prevent that from happening by ninja-proposing a team right now?

2) Related to question #1, but can Adam H distribute powers and propose a team right now then we immediately use Overheard Conversation before spies have a chance to react with their counter-power Deception? If this is allowed, I think Adam H should do this and give me OC (or anyone else who can confirm activity by posting is fine since I know Adam H doesn't trust me). If this is allowed but bad etiquette then forget it too =P

[webby]

I have a rules question about timing:

1) So t1mm can Strong Leader right now if he wants? Adam H can prevent that from happening by ninja-proposing a team right now?

2) Related to question #1, but can Adam H distribute powers and propose a team right now then we immediately use Overheard Conversation before spies have a chance to react with their counter-power Deception? If this is allowed, I think Adam H should do this and give me OC (or anyone else who can confirm activity by posting is fine since I know Adam H doesn't trust me). If this is allowed but bad etiquette then forget it too =P

1) The rules do not allow the use of Strong Leader at this point.
2) Allowed, the spies should have to guess when to use their powers, not just use them in response to something they know will happen.

[rigwarl]

Thanks webby!

OK, I think if Adam H sees this quickly enough, I suggest you give me Overheard Conversation and propose a team of yourself, me (or t1mm), and Lataro. I doubt spies have used Deception by now. We can always burn the No Confidence on the proposed team if people are unhappy with that for more discussion time if needed.

[rigwarl]

Err, I realized I didn't post my reasoning which I left in a word document, lol. Here are my thoughts given the current turn of events, and what the above proposal is based off of:

~~~

If GoP is not a spy, then I would think either Silk/BF are both spies, or Lataro/t1mm are both spies. This is basically a 50/50 shot.

HOWEVER, I think since we failed the easiest mission and are "losing", it makes sense to take some risks. The highest EV risks in my opinion here are 1) to assume GoP is a spy, 2) assume there were at most 2 spies on the mission. Obviously know one knows for sure but based on my calculations (and seems Lataro's too?) I think this is our best shot.

So then the questions are, why did he give KACEOY to Lataro? Possibilites:

1) GoP/Lataro maybe are both spies. This kind of seems like the "obvious" play, but maybe they went for that. Don't know, for you guys that have played before do you think this is something GoP would do? It seems unlikely from my perspective, because there is a 75% they had at least one of the cards in scenarios #2 and #3, below. So, I think highest EV here is to assume Lataro is resistance (of course please post if you disagree or agree).
2) GoP gave resistance member Lataro KACEOY knowing Lataro wouldn't use it on GoP, and they had the other spy power (50% to have it) to keep the other spy safe. Note this is extra tricky because then t1mm/BF/Sliknor are all equally likely to be spies in this case.
3) There is a 50% chance that spies had a Stowaway card. If GoP knew they had this card, he could have picked all resistance members on the team! Then of course it doesn't matter who he gives KACEOY on you to, I guess he picks whoever is least likely to use it on GoP himself.

So... based on the analysis above, I think myself and Lataro should be on the next team for M1 along with the team leader (either t1mm or Adam H depending on if he uses Strong Leader). If Adam H doesn't want to pick me, my second choice is t1mm.

[BoomFrog]

3) There is a 50% chance that spies had a Stowaway card. If GoP knew they had this card, he could have picked all resistance members on the team! Then of course it doesn't matter who he gives KACEOY on you to, I guess he picks whoever is least likely to use it on GoP himself.

If stowaway had been used then there would have been four pass and two fails listed in the end mission report. We know for a fact that stowaway was not used.

2) Allowed, the spies should have to guess when to use their powers, not just use them in response to something they know will happen.

Can the spies set their powers to be used upon a certain condition, such as, "If powers are distributed then use X power on Y."?

I like the core of Rigwal's idea although not the, "quick don't think and give me the power" part. I think our course of action is clear. We give out overheard conversation randomly, then the receiver uses it immediately. Then there's no way the spies can use their power to mess up the result unless AdamH is a spy. And if he is a spy the power isn't going to get used very well anyway. I'm as curious to see who AdamH picks as I am to see the results of the power.

Also I misremembered how in the spolight works. The receiver chooses who to put the spotlight on so it really doesn't matter who gets the power since we are all agreed it should be used this mission.

[webby]

2) Allowed, the spies should have to guess when to use their powers, not just use them in response to something they know will happen.

Can the spies set their powers to be used upon a certain condition, such as, "If powers are distributed then use X power on Y."?

No, because it is not public knowledge who the powers are distributed to. It can only be made conditional upon things that are known publicly (ie whatever is posted in the thread).

[rigwarl]

Oh OK, I wasn't aware of the timing issue again. In that case forget about the "act fast!!" plan. Although I am a little worried spies will use it this mission (or already have done so) since it's likely we want to use it now???

And just by the way if Stowaway was used, it would show 4 passes and 1 fail but you're basically right that they did not use it.

[Angua]

I'm not sure how I feel about the assumptions that GoP must be a spy if there were two spies on the mission. Do we have 3 or 4 spies - if three then 30% of people are spies, and randomly choosing 6 means 30% (which is close to 1/3) will be spies. Now, GoP only had to chose 5 other people, but that means that they were choosing (if they are town) from a pool where exactly 1/3 are spies. I could never work out why this was supposed to be the easiest mission in the first place, and still don't really get it - so if someone could explain this to me I'd be very appreciative.

[Angua]

Oh - I have to be away for 4 days, from Thursday morning until Sunday evening.

Therefore - don't give in the spotlight to me if it has to be used immediately following a mission.

[BoomFrog]

And just by the way if Stowaway was used, it would show 4 passes and 1 fail but you're basically right that they did not use it.

The use of a stowaway power would lead to the result being reported as if there were six players on the mission.

/pedantic victory

Anyway...

Oh OK, I wasn't aware of the timing issue again. In that case forget about the "act fast!!" plan. Although I am a little worried spies will use it this mission (or already have done so) since it's likely we want to use it now???

They have probably used it and it protects two out of the four of them but I think that's the best we can do at this point. Your "act fast" plan would have been the best if we had any real reason to trust you were town. Although AdamH apparently just hasn't been on for a while anyway. We have to use overheard conversation, and if we find a "town" result we really can only about 50/50 trust it, but if we get a spy result we should be pretty sure it is true unless AdamH is a spy and the spies use plant evidence in this 50/50 chance that it will be wasted.

@Angua: There are 4 spies. If GoP is not a spy and he picked at worst randomly then he had a:
5C4/9C4 = 5/126 chance of picking zero spies
5C3*4C1/9C4 = 40/126 chance of picking 1 spy
60/126 chance of picking 2 spies
20/126 chance of picking 3 spies
1/126 chance of picking all 4 spies
So we can't assume he is a spy since an innocent GoP still had about a 2/3rd chance of picking a failing mission (more if you include the possibility of stowaway). However, recall that the chance of an innocent leader picking a failing team for M1 is also pretty damn high. Basically if we're generally doomed for the first mission but it can give us a lot of information.

[Angua]

Ok - so that pretty much confirms what I thought. In that case - FoS to rigwarl for implying that GoP should have been able to let us pass the first mission.

[rigwarl]

@Stowaway power: that seems to contradict the description in the OP.

@odds
Yea that's true. So who is most statistically likely to be town? t1mm? Note that if t1mm is a spy then either spies lucked out and picked him with power, or Lataro must be a spy too.

[Adam H]

Oh god I just lost a huge post. Dammit.

I sent out the plot powers. Opinion Maker can be used immediately so we get more info before I propose the team. No confidence went to infina, and In the Spotlight went to BF.

GoP obviously isn't a confirmed scum, but he still is most likely scum of any of us (without accounting for content analysis). The probability that the last mission failed is 100%, 33% higher than if GoP was town. That might be the wrong way to do bayesian analysis, but the point holds.

In the last game statistical analysis screwed us over, though. We were in a situation like if someone checked t1mm again and got a town result, well, turned out all 3 of them were scum. So unlikely...

[Angua]

I was thinking if we put lataro and t1mm on the same mission, and randomly used in the spotlight, it might give us some information. However, if only one scum is needed to fail the mission, then it would be pretty risky, but just a half-formed idea in my head.

[Adam H]

Scum team: GoP, Lataro, Rigwarl, and Angua. You guys should probably have been a bit less obvious about it.

Man I'm good at this.

[rigwarl]

In the last game statistical analysis screwed us over, though. We were in a situation like if someone checked t1mm again and got a town result, well, turned out all 3 of them were scum. So unlikely...

No plan will give you 100% winrate, correct?

Given the facts, t1mm is the most likely resistance member (also I am constantly confused when people say use "town" and "mafia" here, but I guess I'll just have to deal with that ). I think it is unfortunate if you gave someone else OC before considering that. If you did in fact give t1mm OC, he should check me, then the mission team should be myself, t1mm, Lataro IMO (t1mm can Strong Leader if necessary).

[t1mm01994]

Hmm, as most likely resistance I should probably get into posting.
Firstly, I'm not happy with Adam having distributed the plot powers, as I'm fairly sure Adam is scum. The entire playstyle just shouts "I'm just having fun, being resistance, not a spy, let me go on missions, they'll all be fun" which is miles away from the Adam I know. Therefore, I've got Adam down as spy at the moment.
Lataro I'm still comfortable with. He's obviously frustated with our narrow minds, and just doing his own thing. The content he posts, if you look through the seven layers of arrogance, are actually quite useful.
From the last mission, we still have GoP, Silk and BF. 3 players, of which 2 scum (from my PoV). I'd rather keep those off of missions entirely, and just.. Use the other players.
I'm pretty much buying TMG resistance as well, more so than most of the others..
There's more to come soon. If I had to suggest a team right now, it'd be me + Lataro + TMG.

[Angua]

I still think Adam H is scum. Lataro is hard to read, but I can feel their frustration for always being told that they must be scum.

[Adam H]

Well, I'm only a member of this forum because of Resistance 3.5. So yeah, I'm having more fun than I usually do.

And HELLO! The only way to prevent me from distributing plot powers was to reject GoP's proposed team. I did my part, hmmm?

Is anyone harping on Lataro being scum? I only put him on my four-scum list because Angua and rigwarl have given us some real strong links with him (both are randomly pushing for him to be on the team). He's just playing up that meta rep to get some pity points (which, I should add, isn't a scummy thing to do if he's town). Anyways, I don't have any idea what he's complaining about - we're more or less trusting his KaCEoY result, he already went on a mission, and we're not cutting him out of future missions. And t1mm, his most recent posts are undoubtably NOT helpful. Plus I'm pretty sure he's an excellent scum player (meta says 3/6 wins as mafia), so I'm annoyed that you think he's a confirmed town.

Feel free to reject my team. I'll be on it.

[webby]

I have decided to allow plot powers to be distributed via direct PM, to avoid the lag in me receiving it and then passing it on, as this is not fair on those who are in different timezones to me. However, this is under strict rules to avoid any private discussion, codes etc.

The PM must have the subject 'Resistance Plot Power' and the body of the message must be the name and description of that power copied and pasted from the first post. You must copy me on any PM you send.

[BoomFrog]

Firstly, I'm not happy with Adam having distributed the plot powers, as I'm fairly sure Adam is scum.

You have strongleader. You were the only one with the power to distribute the plot powers instead of AdamH, why didn't you use it?

If you did in fact give t1mm OC, he should check me

Why are you a better choice then infinia? He should check who he wants to.

t1mm is the most likely to be resistance and GoP is the most likely to be a spy. But t1mm being resistance does not really make Lataro any more likely to be resistance. Spy-Lataro would also want to report t1mm as town because if he reports spy then he will be eliminating himself from future missions just to take out one resistance member, which as he said is not a good move for spies. So trust t1mm, but consider Lataro on his own merits.

So anyway, waiting for some overhear conversation results.