xkcd

by **Mostlynormal** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:39 pm UTC

Looking back and rereading, one thing that stands out is the death of Misnomer. Hitting a scum N1 when no one really mentioned finding him suspicious means the SK is probably experienced, which would suggest GoP or maybe T1mm. But, considering how much Misnomer was going after T1mm, and the way T1mm was acting a bit strange yesterday, I'm guessing T1mm is the SK. The death of TMG kind of backs this up since TMG also found T1mm scummy (yes GoP perhaps more so but maybe T1mm didn't want to be obvious.)

Another thing that stands out is the kill patterns of the mafia (assuming TMG was indeed the SK kill). The first night they killed trineroks, who was acting rather quiet and generally seemed more scummy than townie. Last night (assuming the SK killed TMG) their target was GL, who was also lurkery and nonthreatening. This seems to imply that they're either killing randomly to avoid prediction, or going for the SK. I suppose that would be a good strategy for scum, though being a townie, I haven't thought in depth about whether scum should go after town or SK.

Anyway, I think we should lynch either Woopate or Webby (formerly R_I) today because I doubt either of them is the serial killer (a serial killer lynch would be suicide here, ironically). Unfortunately, one of them being a newb and one of them having been a newb for the past two days, it's hard to get a read on them. Right now I would probably vote for Woopate, but I'm not ready to vote quite yet.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:45 pm UTC

Ok, so myself, T1mm, Woopate, MostlyNormal, and Webby, who replaced R_I.

As town, our only hope is if we lynch scum, and then scum and SK kill each other tonight. If SK is lynched, scum wins automatically. If town gets lynched, scum need to kill SK to win, if SK kills scum and scum kill town, then it will be 1v1, so I'm not sure what happens there. If scum gets lynched, there is 1 scum, 1 sk and 2 town, with 2 kills to go through. Both on town, and it turns into 1v1. If scum target SK, then either scum or town win. If SK hits scum, then SK wins.

Will think about this more later.

by **webby** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:08 pm UTC

Sorry, I missed deadline because I was asleep between replacing in and deadline.

Luckily, I have a cop result that helps somewhat - Gopher of Pern is mafia.

I picked GoP to investigate mainly because of the oddness with TheMaskedGecko - it struck me very much as - 'TheMaskedGecko finds me town. I'm scum, so he has no justification for this. Therefore, I can get away with calling him scum, because he's wrong.' The 'I haven't played particularly townie this game' comment also felt a little off.

Vote: Gopher of Pern

I may have outed myself as townie with this post, which is a bad thing if we want the SK to hit scum.

I've had a good think about this and here's what I propose:

- If we lynch GoP now, it is 1-1-2 heading into night. Most of those scenarios are awful for us, but there is a way of getting a good one.
- I make a pact now that if it gets down to 1-1-1, I will vote for whoever I think is the SK, thus making mafia win. I encourage the other townie left to do likewise.
- This means that the dominant strategy for the SK is to kill the final mafia, meaning it's 2-1.
- This means that the dominant strategy for mafia is to not kill and hope that the SK hits town. Obviously it doesn't matter what the mafia does if they get eliminated anyway, but it's clear that if SK hits town, they don't want to kill town as well, else they lose at 1-1.

This makes it 2 townies, 1 SK, with a pretty good chance of me having a useful cop result.

by **webby** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:11 pm UTC

Also, to whoever the other mafia is:

I know we don't have a majority, but you must vote with us townies, else the Serial Killer is going to know who you are. Remember, we are giving you a chance to win here if the SK picks wrong and town can't win.

by **Mostlynormal** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:37 pm UTC

Ok I just realized that the SK is still kill immune so mafia wouldn't be going after the SK. I would guess either that they were using some kind of randomising device or perhaps they were just a bit inexperienced, which would reinforce my decision that we should lynch one of Webby or Woopate. (Though I guess with Webby he would've been there and not R_I for last night's decision, but perhaps they had their reasons. Or perhaps it is just random.)

Gop's got a grave prediction, which is that mafia have to go for the SK if town wants any chance of winning (and even before that, town and SK would both have to hit mafia.) I was thinking that town could win in a 1v1v1 situation if SK and scum killed each other but it seems like we'd be doomed by then thanks to SK being kill immune. I guess we'll try to lynch scum today and then just hope that our SK has good aim, and that our mafia have bad aim. A bit frustrating, but that's the way it goes I guess.

Ninja'd: Umm, cool, but I don't think there's any way to know that we can trust this. I wish I could, and that would make it so much simpler, but I just can't know. I guess we have a day of discussion to sort things out. Your pact idea is good though--that way we can sort of "force" the SK to work for us. In fact, I think I'm inclined to trust your resourcefulness over GoP's doom and gloom. Not going to vote yet though.

I, Mostlynormal, do solemnly swear to vote for the SK if we reach 1v1v1.

Wait though. What if no one were to NK? In that case we'd be at 2v1v1, and even if we lynched scum we'd get 1 town vs 1 scum the next day, and lose. I guess the answer would be that SK wouldn't want this to happen (mafia couldn't change one way or the other, their best strategy would still be to not NK), because we'd no lynch hoping that the SK hit mafia (if they hit town we'd be at 1v1v1 and lynch the SK) (the mafia have to withhold because if they kill then the SK wins no matter what). Then we'd be in the same situation as otherwise (2v1) but with a bit more risk to them.

Yeah I'm almost ready to vote GoP simply on the towniness of Webby's plan.

by **Mostlynormal** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:48 pm UTC

EBWOP: And just in case you're mafia trying to get us to 1v1v1 for the win or SK trying to get a townie lynched or something weird:

I also solemnly swear to lynch webby, regardless of SK or Mafia status, If he gets into a 1v1v1 with me

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:40 am UTC

Ok, first, I forgot that SK is NK immune.

That means scum need to lynch the SK.

If scum gets lynched, Sk will survive, and so will 0-1 scum and 1-2 townies. 1 scum, 1 town and 1 SK is a town kingmaker situation.
If town gets lynched SK will go for scum, scum will go for town, leaving 1v1 scum v SK, which SK will win. The only way scum win with a town lynch is if SK doesn't hit scum. They could also withhold the kill, to turn into a kingmaker situation.
Scum lynch lynch SK, scum win.

So scum will prefer SK lynch. Failing that, they are likely going to withhold their kill, as they cannot improve their chances with a kill, and in fact it hurts them, as a live town can act as kingmaker.

SK is in a difficult spot. It seems the best they can do is get to a kingmaker situation, unless scum decide to use their kill on a town.

Town will only win if scum gets lynched, and the SK kills the remaining scum. Which is unlikely to happen.

So here's the good news! Webby's a lying Mcliar Scummerson! I am town cop, and T1mm is the SK. Possibly Doc, but thats doubtful at the moment. T1mm, I would prefer you to win over the lying scum, so if you leave me alive, I will make you king tomorrow.

Vote: Webby

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:45 am UTC

EBWOP:

Oh, and you will leave me alive T1mm, because the other town will go for mafia.

Wont they other town?

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:08 am UTC

I started writing this before Webby posted, then I had to drive my ladyfriend to the airport. Now that I'm at work, I have some time. I'm going to post what I had since I still believe it relevant:

Alright, so before I start analyzing votes and such, I'd like to address the numbers.

2 scum, 2 town, 1 sk. This means that even if we lynch scum tonight, there are going to be two kills. One (if successful) against town. Unless scum target the same as sk, or target the sk, or one of the two remaining town happens to be the potential second doctor (at this point unlikely I think.). If there is only one nk tonight, I think it'd be safest to assume the mafia figured out who the sk is tomorrow if they haven't already (I don't know if the scum withholding a night kill is allowed or not, or even a workable strategy for scum).

A SK lynch tonight would mean that town would still lose one, and the mafia would be two, so a mafia win.

A mafia lynch means there are up to two kills tonight, with chances weighted in favor of it going to 1 on 1 on 1 (which is a loss for town). Still a chance that it could wipe out mafia entirely, leaving the sk to deal with, which could be a win. A townie lynch tonight leaves 2 mafia and either 1 townie 1 sk and the mafia know the sk, or 2 mafia and 1 sk, so a mafia win. This is all ignoring the possibility of a surviving doctor.

SK lynch=mafia win. 1/5 outcomes
Mafia lynch=could go any direction, chances in favor of sk. 2/5 outcomes.
townie lynch=mafia win or sk win. 2/5 outcomes

Or we could No Lynch. With this method the mafia have a chance of targetting the sk (and thus no townies are lost) (1/3), and the sk has a 50/50 shot at hitting a mafia or townie. The situations break down as follows:

mafia hit sk, sk hits mafia. 2 town, 1 mafia, 1 sk. Mafia knows sk. A town-lynch is a town lose, a mafia lynch is a mafia lose, a sk lynch is a sk lose.

Mafia hit sk, sk hits town. 1 town, 2 mafia, 1 sk. Mafia knows sk. They must not be the ones lynched to win. Otherwise goes to a 1-1-1 scenario, where town loses.

Mafia hits town, sk hits town. Mafia win straight up.

Mafia hit town, sk hit mafia. 1 town, 1 scum, 1 sk. Town loss, sk or mafia must win over town. If mafia and sk wind up lynching town, sk win. if no lynch, sk win since mafia can't nk the sk.

AFTER WEBBY'S POST
I do not like any of these options. If I had to pick, I think I'd go for no lynch. If webby's cop is accurate, and the sk listens to it(which I think he would, if he lynches town there's a 3 option scenario, 1. that mafia wins straight up, 2. Mafia and sk target same bloke 3. mafia know the sk, also a terrible option given the pact, all of which ), we wind up in a 2 town, 1 mob, 1 sk world. which is our best shot. This is still my first game, though. I'd like somebody to agree with my conclusion.

On Webby, I think the pact is a fantastic way to guide the sk. Little dubious of the cop claim but there's no counterclaim so far. Feels very townie to me. If people shoot down my idea of a no lynch, I'll probably follow the cop.

NINJA: now out of the blue we get a counterclaim from GoP just as the words leave my mouth! What's the normal way to resolve this?

by **Mostlynormal** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:34 am UTC

Actually 2v1v1 is a probable town loss. Our best bet is that we lynch scum, SK hits mafia like they're supposed to, and mafia withholds the kill like they have to.

Woopate wrote: now out of the blue we get a counterclaim from GoP just as the words leave my mouth! What's the normal way to resolve this?

Normally we lynch 'em both

. Since that would almost definitely be an instant loss, we just have to decide who we trust more. I trust Webby, but I can't be sure. I do know a way to be sure though. This idea of using town's future position as kingmaker to leverage a win now is very powerful. So here's my ultimatum, which will only work if everyone else agrees too:

Webby, if you are lying scum then when it gets to a kingmaker situation (and by that time we'll know) we will vote against you. The only way to escape loss would be to admit your lies now. But there's a way out. If you admit you are lying, we'll make a deal with you. If you are the SK, we'll vote on your side if it gets to kingmaker (but lynch you if we can--that's the chance you have to take.) If you're scum, we'll lynch you, and then go on to win if all goes right, but if we get to a kingmaker situation we'll support your scumbuddy. So those are your options. If you're town, good for you, we'll vote GoP. If you're not, remember that continuing to lie will be a certain loss for your team

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:43 am UTC

I'm not sure who I should believe, Webby, GoP, or mostlynormal. Two are lying. Maybe all. Scum haven't missed a kill so any cop claim is from a cop or an outright fabrication. t1mm received enough flak yesterday to make a sk claim against him plausible.

For now, what I believe(this is probably totally wrong, my brain is full of fuck.)
GoP is scum
t1mm is too. When he replies, he'll play along.
Webby is sk. Coming in on day 3 with a wild accusation and no history except for what a lurker tells. Very bold move. But scum thought of their plan and jumped on a fantastic opportunity. Or the claim is accurate if second option below holds.
Mn is my townie friend. Or a sk playing along with GoP nice and early in the claim to solidify as town.

But really. My mental map is an etch-a-sketch that just got put in a washer set to "agitate"

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:48 am UTC

The way to resolve this is to listen to t1mm when they get online. They are the SK, but they have no reason not to reveal themselves now, as they wont be lynched today, unless town really wants scum to win, which I dont.

*ninja*

SK can only win with towns help at the moment. Why would Webby, if they were SK, try to post wine like they did, when it could backfire and get them lynched? The lynch is the only thing the SK is afraid of. They are actually safer out in the open now, with towns help. Town and SK cannot win if SK is lynched, whereas they both have a chance if scum is lynched.

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:03 am UTC

I agree. T1mm, please don't be long.

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:13 am UTC

EBWOP: actually, GoP. have you copped MostlyNormal? Seems to me, if everything you say is true, you might STILL be bussing a second doctor and the sk gets to walk free. Is that just a gamble you are taking? Seems too scummy to me.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:51 am UTC

No. I copped Misnomer night 1. It is possible that t1mm is a doctor, but if so, then they are my only town buddy, and that would make you SK or scum. In either case, I am not bussing T1mm, I am on their side. Doctor or SK, I need them to survive the lynch today. My plan only slightly changed with Webby's claim, basically it just made it easier for me to pick out scum, and make my claim a no-brainer.

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:30 am UTC

Then why is town Kingmaker? Seems to me Mafia is. Sk takes a mafia, we lynch a mafia, mafia knows this is happening because you said it in the open, so they don't bother withholding(not sure why you said they would), sk takes the crown. Or they DO withhold and sk goes into the day alone against two townies.

What about sk? Seems he doesn't need town. There are two factions here.

If sk complies, and kills scum, and we lynch the other, town wins.
If sk says he complies, and lynches scum, but then night kills town, the remaining mafia will vote for sk, since it's the only winning move for them, and town will vote for him too, due to the betrayal. giving it to scum.
If sk straight up wants a mafia win, we lynch town, he or scum night kill town or both, mafia win. Sk could say he supports mafia, lynch town, and night kill scum, who night kill town, sk gets the win.
Or if sk lynches town and nk mafia, but mafia withhold the town vote, town gets to decide again.
Or sk lynches town then withholds, mafia withholds anticipating a betrayal to throw the ball back to townies. Sk win here too.
Sk lynches town and withholds, mafia doesn't withhold, mafia wins.

Seems to me the cards are dealt, only thing left to do is play them.
Roleclaim: scum
Vote: Gopher of Pern

Balls in your court sk.

by **webby** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:39 am UTC

I was busy with work today, looks like I missed out on all the fun!

I'm not quite sure what's happening here, it seems likely that either GoP and t1mm are the two scum, or GoP knew he had a 50-50 chance of randomly guessing the SK, so went with t1mm. I think the latter is slightly more likely, in which case t1mm is either actually the SK, or town.

I need to go to chess now, but will be back with more developed thoughts later.

I just got ninja'd, have no idea what's happening here. :S

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:47 am UTC

Now I hate you Woopate. Town's only chance of winning was indeed SK killing scum tonight while we lynch scum. Now the SK knows who everyone is, and will win now. Congratulations t1mm.

Unvote
Vote: Woopate

My whole plan was predicated on SK not knowing who scum is. They would have had a 50/50 chance of killing town or scum. But since thats blown all to hell, I will do what I said, and help the SK win. That means a scum lynch.

Mostlynormal, as the other town, you can help either side. I've already picked SK, due to Webby trying to frame me, and now with Woopate ruining my plans.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:48 am UTC

Webby, scum have lost, town have lost, SK wins.

by **webby** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:55 am UTC

Still here for a couple of minutes. There is an alternative, which I haven't properly calculated what it does, but has to be better than this:

Unvote
Vote: No Lynch

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 7:00 am UTC

By the way, sk, offer stands for mafia too. Lynch a townie, you'll earn One Benefit Of The Doubt from me to be redeemed in a future game. Or you could roll a dice and shoot for a win, or you can lynch a mafia and let townies win. They haven't offered you anything except "do what we say and we'll let you live. Maybe"

Plus I would really appreciate it if You gave me a win for my first ever mafia game. Especially the way this one has gone.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:20 am UTC

A NL wont help. SK will likely still go for scum, and if scum go for town, it will be 1v1v1. If scum doesn't use their kill, it turns into a 1v1v2, which still means town is kingmaker.

Woopate, I suppose it doesn't matter too much, SK has won, if whoever they trust follows through with letting them win. If you want, we could all concede and just let the SK win.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:32 am UTC

I... don't think it matters much what my role is at this point. Woopate, what you just did is you made it impossible for town to win. For that, you deserve a vote. Or actually, for claiming scum... But ah well, you should probably die anyways.
Vote: Woopate
And that's pretty much all I have to say for now.. I don't think my alignment or plan doesn't particularly affect any plan whatsoever. It's up to MN to kingmake now...

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:49 am UTC

I think we should let it play out. Why are you pushing so hard on the line that sk has won? Sk only wins if he is not lynched, but someone else is, sk uses his nk, AND scum uses nk. If scum do not nk, the best he can hope for is a Kingmaker. The odds are the same with a nl but 2 nks and if only 1 person dies the best sk can hope for is another Kingmaker.

Win conditions on the table for every faction hardly sounds like sk has won. You might be convinced that Kingmaker goes to sk, but it doesn't necessarily, and it doesn't necessarily end in kingmaker.

Sounds like a sk wanting an easy win to me.

NINJA: t1mm, if both scum die tonight, or even 1 scum with no other casualties, it's a town win. Scum won't make a kill tonight because that's their best shot at kingmaker.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:31 am UTC

Let's see.
1: You die. This is optimal play for both town and the SK, meaning you will die with a majority.
2: SK lynch town. This is not hard, knowing that you + 1 of webb/GoP are scum (educated guesses can be done, but this much is sure)
This makes it 1/1/1. Scum do not want to NK, for that would make it 1/1 in the best case scenario.
3: if GoP is town, which I believe he is, SK wins if GoP is alive by sundawn, and he keeps his promise. webby/MN/SK produces similar results if webby is scum, which, according to your earlier claim, seems likely. I... *sigh* might as well claim, for it is obvious regardless. I'm the SK I talk about there.
GoP, if you don't keep your promise, I /will/ find you in every game from here on.
Oh, and Woopate: Ball's in my court. I will proceed to win the game with it. MN is kingmaker here, as he can decide to get me lynched and let scum win.. I believe GoP already has chose me as king, but I need 2 kingmakers to make me king. Come on town, don't let me down.. I even killed Misnomer day 1! I'm the only one that has even /hit/ scum so far! Oh, and day 2, I killed GL, not TMG. TMG would be too obvious.. Someone tried to frame me I guess.

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:45 am UTC

GoP, MN, ball's in your court. t1mm could give you a win, lynch me and nk my scumpadrè. Put an ultimatum on him. Tell him he won't win regardless, and would do well to give you a win. Refuse to let him win because he could let you win but won't. He only deserves similar treatment. Vow to hunt him in your games if he doesn't give you the win. There are two of you and one of him. I'm dead either way.
Unvote
Vote: t1mm01994

by **Woopate** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:18 pm UTC

EBWOP: I'll come right out and say it. I propose a stalemate. Sk wins if townies let him, mafia win if townies let them, townies win if sk lets them. If we're playing to win, and I hope we are, nobody would give up their position of power to the other, it would literally be suicide. There are moves that can be made, but nobody playing for keeps would logically make them.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:21 pm UTC

No, Woopate, that balloon won't float. The same thing can be applied to any 2 factions. I could let you win, but I don't. You could let me win, but you don't. Town could let you win, but so far, they don't. Town could let me win, but so far they don't.
The line "Refuse to let him win because he could let you win but won't" doesn't make that much sense, regarding how you're profiting directly from it. I did not vow anything against MN, and only against GoP in a joking way: If he does not keep his promise, I promise (c wut i did thar) to hunt him. Rest assured that I won't keep that promise, either. Thanks for telling me Webby is scum though, appreciated information.. Helpful and all that.
Anyways, I'm not going to post here anymore until MN has posted, for he is the king and I think he'll want to make his own decision.

NINJA: Problem is, there is no way to keep a such stalemate in play.. Because I agree that it's a matter of appealing to the right person now, even though Mafia can win if any 1 person joins them, and same is true for town. I'm the only one in need of 2 supporters... But yeah, this stalemate thing would make sense.

by **Mostlynormal** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:38 pm UTC

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

This is great! This is awesome! Thank you Woopate, unfortunately for you you doomed the mafia, but thanks a lot for helping out town!

Ok so first off, anyone who's lying about their role better 'fess up right away. If I find out you lied tommorrow I will lynch you just out of spite for screwing over town.

T1mm, you're naive if you think GoP will stick to his promises. He's going to follow exactly what I do, because he wants town to win.

Ok so first off, remember all those pacts we made? Forget them. Those happened before we had someone actually claim scum. Now we're in a much better position, and we can do whatever we want. So here's what's going to happen:

T1mm, when we lynch Woopate, you will kill webby tonight. You know why? Because if you don't we will lynch you and the mafia will win. But you don't want the mafia to win, you want yourself to win. "But what's in it for me?" you might ask, "You'll just lynch me as soon as you get to 2v1." But since I want you to pick the right choice, and not let those mafia scum win, I'm going to give you a little incentive to go with us. If you kill webby tonight, you will still have a chance at winning. Not a huge chance, but still a chance. When we get to day four, I will flip three coins from the comfort of my home. If all three come up heads, I will vote GoP and let you win. That means by going with us you still have a 1/8 chance of winning this game. Going against us is certain death. You might of course wonder why I wouldn't just lynch you no matter what day four. That'd be a valid question, but the answer is twofold. One, which is sort of circular, is that if I were to be that untrustworthy you'd have no reason to go with us in the first place, so I have to be trustworthy. The other is that if I want to make deals like this in a future game I have to keep my word. The choice is clear: Either betray us and lose, or stick with us and you just might win.

See GoP? The SK hasn't won quite yet. Just make it clear that you intend to follow this too and we're basically home free.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:04 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote MN
So, W and W, I need to work with you guys (GoP, I still love you, too) so I suggest we get this over with and kill MN?

by **Adam H** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:22 pm UTC

Votals:
Woopate - 1 (Gopher of Pern)
t1mm01994 - 1 (Woopate)
No Lynch - 1 (Webby)
MostlyNormal - 1 (t1mm01994)

Let me know if I messed those up. There's a lot of bold text floating around.

by **Mostlynormal** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:24 pm UTC

Yeah I was afraid that would happen. Well, how about a 3/4 chance that you win? Tommorrow I flip two coins, you flip another two, we both keep each other honest that way, and then if we get different coins twice then we win, otherwise I'll vote GoP and let you win. That's a pretty good deal for you, right?

by **Mostlynormal** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:45 pm UTC

Also, mafia has no reason to lynch me because then it'll be 1v1v1 and GoP will lynch them.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:08 pm UTC

I figured I'd change my avatar to something more fitting, as LJ Gibbs is displeased with being called a Serial Killer. Ari Haswari doesn't mind too much.
But back on topic:

Mostlynormal wrote:T1mm, you're naive if you think GoP will stick to his promises.

followed by

Mostlynormal wrote:promise

Uhm, so, yeah. You promise me you will let town, your side, lose, if I do as you please and $event occurs? I... would love to buy that, but I really can't. Trust issues and all that.
But I just figured, I need not do anything yet, as you all need me too much to kill me.. Make me an offer, I'll be back before deadline and I'll follow the best offer on the block.
Unvote
Tim, moving out.

by **Mostlynormal** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:32 pm UTC

Well, the first was referring to an old "promise" about something that was irrelevant, but you were expecting him to see it through to the end like it was a matter of honor. This new promise is actually in our own best interest, because it's the only way to win for us at this point. And we'll keep that promise, because even if it's not in our best interest to let you win, it is in our best interest to get you to trust us so we can have a chance at winning. Anyway, if you don't cooperate us, we can still make sure that you lose, so trust doesn't really have anything to do with it.

In fact, we're all equals here. So I'll offer 1/2. I shouldn't have panicked and done 3/4. If you help us get to 2v1 with you, I'll flip a coin and you'll flip a coin, which we report in thread. There's a 1/2*1/2=1/4 chance of getting both heads, similarly for tails. If we get both the same side, we'll let you win, if not, we'll kill you. I for one fully intend to keep our end of the bargain--because once again, it's our only way to win. See, the rules forbid playing to lose. Intending to cheat you would be playing to lose because you wouldn't trust us and mafia would win. Keeping the deal, even if it means lynching GoP, is playing to win because the idea that the deal is fair is what will give us any chance to win.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:09 pm UTC

I think you'll understand that I'll at least wait for what scum has to offer, as I see quite some ways for me to get >50%... And the problem is that I don't know how to keep it at an actual 50% and you just posting the winning result...

P.S. The true winning play is to misguide me into doing this and void the deal, however, without scum help, this is the highest I can get. GoP, Woopate, webby, speak up! What are your thoughts on this?

by **Gopher of Pern** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:27 pm UTC

mostlynormal's screwed me!

I'll still give you the win over scum. Hence my vote.

Never trust a lying scummy Mcscum scum.

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:37 pm UTC

I feel like being for sale, for the highest bidder.. So, waiting for what webby has to say as I'm very tempted to kill Woopy now.

by **Mostlynormal** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:49 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote: If you want, we could all concede and just let the SK win.

Gopher of Pern wrote:mostlynormal's screwed me!

Wait, what? I may not be the best negotiator, but at least I'm trying!

t1mm01994 wrote:I think you'll understand that I'll at least wait for what scum has to offer, as I see quite some ways for me to get >50%... And the problem is that I don't know how to keep it at an actual 50% and you just posting the winning result...

I would post first, which would prevent me from cheating(though allow you to cheat). I figure we'll both have to trust each other. I understand you want to see what scum has to offer.

t1mm01994 wrote:P.S. The true winning play is to misguide me into doing this and void the deal, however, without scum help, this is the highest I can get. GoP, Woopate, webby, speak up! What are your thoughts on this?

Not according to some philosophers. In some views (mine) resolving from the start to keep the deal is a winning play because if you can imagine me doing such a thing you can trust me better, but pretending to while planning to cheat you would make you more suspicious and less likely to take the deal at all. Since town is totally screwed if you don't take the deal, I'd do anything just to get you to take it in the first place, including resolving to do something that may be harmful later on. Part of is also that if I were to cheat you, it'd be much harder for anybody to make that kind of deal again with me. Anyway, if you don't take the deal, we'll do everything we can to prevent you from winning.

by **webby** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:37 pm UTC

Only have a couple of minutes, I'll be back in a few hours, for now I'm going to say that anyone who hammers Woopate before I get the chance to come back, it's your faction that I'm going to make lose if I can.

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