The Resistance 4 (GAME OVER, Resistance win 3-1)

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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Fri Feb 24, 2012 2:59 pm UTC

OK after sleeping I have some more thoughts.

Does anyone have an actual good reason for not trusting t1mm? The only thing I've seen so far is his use of OC, but would a spy really want to say something like "oh by the way guys, I lied last post"? To me, that seems like a resistance thing to do to try to give us extra information. Of course it could be reverse psychology again, but I am inclined to doubt that. I do disagree with his strategy in that he was sort of banking on Adam H's mission to be rejected (by not revealing true results until afterwards), but meh, again I just don't expect that from a spy to admit to deceiving everyone.

Adam H's contributions still seems really townie to me too, and I think it's a huge shame that t1mm/Adam H (and even myself!) are under distrust because I would bet money that is 3/6 of our resistance members. So, the biggest argument against Adam H I think so far is his distribution of powers. Note that the spy power Deception, if they had it, can pretty much 100% null OC no matter what if Adam H is a spy- the ONLY possibility of it failing is if Adam H gave it to someone in between two spies *AND* neither of those spies were the one holding the power. So basically that will never happen, and therefore "Adam H gave t1mm the OC card because spies knew they could use Deception" is, to be blunt, 100% invalid. Also important to note, and I don't even think Adam H realizes this himself, is that he announced exactly who he would give powers to before he actually did- I'm not completely sure what to make of this, but yea.

So yea, to summarize, t1mm and Adam H have both contributed a lot and I don't feel the main arguments for them being scummy are valid.

Finally, I think we should save Strong Leader because next in line is Angua, me, then t1mm, and spies possibly have the secret-spy-equivalent power that we might want to counter. Since TMG is proposing, I would be most happy with TMG, myself, and t1mm. Boomfrog/Angua/Adam H/Lataro are my next choices. Unfortunately this is 7 people so at the very least, 1 of them is wrong =(
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Adam H » Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:25 pm UTC

TheMaskedGecko wrote:Secondly, there's been a surprising amount of people trusting me despite me not actually saying anything.
I think the more people talk or get involved in this game, the scummier they look. I'm getting the feeling that it's because there are so many actions that seem unlikely (like picking who gets the plot powers and who gets to go on the teams), and we associate unlikely behavior with scum. Basically, I imagine that whatever you do here, we're about to find you incredibly scummy. (You put INFINA on your provisional team!?!? :D )

But seriously infina is a poor choice I think. It kind of seems like you put him on the team so that BF uses ITS on infina and not you.


Ninja: I think t1mm is scummy because I think he was expecting the mission to be accepted and he posted his theory so that when he failed the mission, I (and infina) would take the heat.

rigwarl wrote:Also important to note, and I don't even think Adam H realizes this himself, is that he announced exactly who he would give powers to before he actually did- I'm not completely sure what to make of this, but yea.
I said who I thought I'd give the powers to because I didn't consider the spy plot powers. But then someone reminded me that spies should be kept in the dark about OC, so I reconsidered my plan, and changed the targets. I did end up keeping t1mm the same. But I really don't think it was obvious who I gave OC to before t1mm claimed.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:01 pm UTC

I have to say that I'm not that sure on Adam atm. If he's spy he must be nearly ODing on calming pills to stay that calm. Infina takes the heat a lot worse, as such I'll keep him on my spylist.

On my timing, again, there was an IRL night in my way. I posted as soon as I could, and apart from the result on infina, I've been honest all along. I kept everything conditional under If-clauses, and in the end, I think it gave us infina as spy. It's not the best revenue for so much wine, but it's something.
@rig, I don't understand you on Deception. Care to explain a bit closer what exactly is impossible? Because as I see it, AUA (from the other post) would be happy to set something like that up.
@ this next mission, I'd prefer as many players on M1 that have not been on M4 as possible, for maximum information. Rig is pretty much confirmed resistance to me (if Adam is spy, rig can't be, if Adam is not spy, I can't be deceived so rig is not spy --> rig is not spy) so I'd value rig on the mission, and infina not on it (I'll reject any infina mission)
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:26 pm UTC

I may have misinterpreted t1mm's and Boomfrog's earlier posts, but basically I thought you said something along the lines of "Adam H gave t1mm OC so spies could use Deception", and I was simply saying the italicized part of that argument doesn't really apply since *if*: 1) Adam H was a spy, 2) spies happened to have Deception, it would work 99.9% of the time no matter who he gave OC to since it makes two spies immune, and the only possibility of Deception failing would be if he gave it to someone sitting in between two spies and neither of those are holding Deception.

.......While I writing this, I realized that while what I wrote about is true, it's not entirely correct. If spies wanted to effectively use Deception, they have to give OC to someone that is sitting next to a spy. Again I still don't think Adam H is spy, but if he does turn out to be, then... hmm.... either _infina_ or I (or both if one of us held Deception) must be a spy, or they didn't have Deception and neither of us are spies, anyway this is pretty much super not useful as it's basically saying "any possible options are possible options". I will not think much more about AUA =P
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:50 pm UTC

Let me clean up my argument.
We'll assume a universe where Adam is a spy, and I am a member of the resistance, and spies have Deception as Spy Plot Power. That universe may be the same as this one, but we don't know, so we'll announce it as an Alternate Universe (AU). As such, anything in the AU is now named AUanything; Adam becomes AUA, I become AUTim, and so on.

Adam distributed powers, and gave (as it looks now) BF, infina and I plot powers. ITS to BF, NC to infina and OC to me. Now, enter the AU.
[AU]
AUA has got Deception, and wants to use it, as he can distribute OC as well. He knows that I'm the most town player of the moment, so he gives it to me, as I conveniently border a spy (the odds of bordering a spy are >9000). AUA has made sure somewhere in the setup phase that Deception is used so that this would work out. AUTim thinks this is what's going on, and figures he should claim a resistance result on infina, while actually checking rigwarl. If infina was spy and AUT is deceived, AUA would be very happy to let AUinfina on the team, knowing that ITS will never hurt him. If rigwarl was the spy, Adam would be dissappointed because I checked the resistance member instead of the deceived spy.
[/AU]
Adam was very happy, so I figured infina was scum, seeing this backed up by NC going to infina, and BF who was (is) on my likely scumlist defending Adam. After that, it appears ITS went to BF.
Gee Willikers, if this spyteam doesn't incorporate BF, infina and Adam these are a even more coincidences now.. Adam, why did you give BF ITS?
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:54 pm UTC

Quote from page 3:
Adam H wrote:In the Spotlight: Angua

Quote from page 5:
BoomFrog wrote: I'll choose who to put ITS on.

Confused Tim, seeing how this is yet another coincidence to the list, page 5:
t1mm01994 wrote:Adam, why did you give BF ITS?
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:19 pm UTC

Hm, now that you explained your plan I like it a lot more. I didn't realize you were looking for a reaction specifically from Adam H.

Actually regarding who he gave ITS to, it's explained pretty clearly on that page (for "why not Angua" at least)- to summarize Angua didn't want it because she is going to be out for a few days. Also his next post where he actually gives out powers:

Adam H wrote:I sent out the plot powers. Opinion Maker can be used immediately so we get more info before I propose the team. No confidence went to infina, and In the Spotlight went to BF.


Also, I think BF has opposed Adam H at pretty much every turn at least recently, so I think you're remembering something wrong when you said BF was defending Adam H.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:02 pm UTC

Meh, regarding the power not going to Angua rereading you're probably right. It's just that well.. I need to have at most 6 people on my not-trusted list, and giving BF as not-sure-scum would get GoP/Silk/Lataro down a notch.
Anyways, for now I've got more than enough, seeing how rig, TMG and Angua are cleared in my opinion.
Regarding BF I still don't know why it went to him. I don't see how BF was less scummy than TMG, or rig for that matter
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Adam H » Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:11 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:Gee Willikers, if this spyteam doesn't incorporate BF, infina and Adam these are a even more coincidences now.. Adam, why did you give BF ITS?
Geez, they aren't "coincidences"! I had to pick someone to give ITS to! Would it have been a coincidence if I choose TMG, or Angua, or GoP, or Silknor? Just because I only had a 1/9 chance of picking out BF doesn't mean it was unlikely for me to pick someone.

I picked BF because he made a post that made me trust him. I pointed it out at the time.

But ANYWAYS, it doesn't even matter who got ITS. There's no secrecy involved with that plot power - it's public knowledge who it gets used on. BF can go against our wishes, but that would just incriminate him and his scummates. And I believe NC can be used if scum-BF uses it obvi-scummy...

Can NC be used after ITS has been used but before the mission has been passed/failed?
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:20 pm UTC

That's why I crawled back after that last post by rig and already had crawled back a bit before that. I'm just having a hard time getting you off the scumlist.. I'm trying though.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby webby » Fri Feb 24, 2012 8:36 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:Can NC be used after ITS has been used but before the mission has been passed/failed?


I'm going to say that if they are both used when a mission is approved, ITS will consider not to have been used - the power will not be wasted in this way.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:30 pm UTC

OK so I just realized that I am actually now the most mechanically-likely* resistance! I have already been posting a lot but here are some more things that I think are kind of important that people should weigh in on:

*for people who still don't trust me (please, please point why, we cannot afford resistance in-strife at this point), I can only be spy if:
1) t1mm is a spy, and t1mm can really only be a spy if Lataro is too, or if Secret Sabotage was used. Ugh, it's possible but I think it's unlikely and to be honest I personally will take that chance at this point- if I'm wrong about t1mm, then damn, well played and spies deserve to win.
2) We had Deception, and then either guessed right with it, or Adam H is spy *and* guessed t1mm's pick right out of a 50/50. The rest of you guys can decide how unlikely this is, it's hard for me to judge because I know I'm resistance, heh. Anyway I think unlikely.


While I was looking at spy powers to see if anything can counter ITS (nothing can!), I had another thought. I think that the mere existence of "Planting The Evidence" makes Lataro less likely to be spy, as it would be a great scapegoat to fakeclaim t1mm with KACEOY. Thoughts?

Sorry GoP, but I'm currently living in GoP=spy world. This is the highest probability IMO. So... there's 1 more thing I'd like to point out that hasn't really been talked about. GoP originally soft-proposed a team, then swapped infina and TMG with silknor and BF- completely wild guess but I suspect he ensured there was at least 1 other spy on it. Anyway... I'm thinking GoP = spy, one of TMG/infina = spy (leaning infina is spy), one of silknor/BF = spy (leaning silknor is spy). Unfortunately, just playing the numbers this now means...
I know I said I trusted both Angua/TMG earlier, but to be honest those were kind of wild card trusts based on relatively little content. After thinking about it more it seems to me that one of them is likely to be a spy. Or maybe Adam H is playing a phenomenal spy game.

So, given the above I VERY STRONGLY suggest TMG to propose: TMG/t1mm/myself on M1, spotlight used on TMG. TMG (and everyone else really), I'd like to hear what you think before you hard-propose, since we have plenty of time and a rejection of your team means that we are basically forced to use Strong Leader.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby _infina_ » Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:34 pm UTC

I'm still trying to make any sense of what t1mm did, and I can't find any that makes it seem like a good idea for t1mm to be anywhere near a proposed team.

rigwarl: of course I am going to attack someone who doused me in enough wine to kill the entirety of France. Especially when all of their accusations stem from the fact that they lied about who they used a power on, and follow it up with a host of assumptions that are not explained with proper reasoning.

Let's go to this AU t1mm keeps talking about, where both me and Adam H are spies.
AU_infina_ had just been cleared as resistance, even though they were scum. AUAdam H was put In The Spotlight. AUt1mm01994 is resistance. AUt1mm will pass the mission. AUAdam will pass the mission because they have to vote publicly. AUinfina will pass the mission because they want to keep up the appearance of being resistance. The mission passes, bringing the score to 1-1.

In this universe, where all I know for certain is that I am resistance, t1mm spilled wine everywhere and caused a rejected mission, makes me think that t1mm is highly likely to be a spy.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:44 pm UTC

Why would AUinfina not fail the mission, knowing that AUTim is ridiculously easy to blame, and as ITS is on Adam, the chance of getting caught is 0?
And would you mind naming some of these assumptions I backed up badly? Or responding to why you probably pissed off Lataro further for no reason at all? Or any content not OMGUS?
Thanks in advance.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Adam H » Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:55 pm UTC

I think there might be some misconceptions with how the spies can use their spy plot powers. To clear this up:
1) Spies cannot communicate.
2) Only one spy gets a particular power.
3) Spies are not told when a spy plot power is used.

Spies can use deception just as easily whether I'm a spy or not. If I made it seem likely that t1mm was getting OC, then my townness doesn't impact the spy's ability to use Deception. And if spies did not know who I was giving OC to, then spies would have to guess regardless of my townness. So even if rigwarl is scum, that doesn't say anything about me, I don't think.

If Lataro was spy, he would have no way of informing the other spies that they should use Planting the Evidence on T1mm. So the fact that we know PTE was not used on T1mm is extremely weak evidence that Lataro is not scum.

@rigwarl: That's an interesting point with GoP's flipflop on his proposed team, but it is meaningless unless you assume GoP is scum. I think it's not THAT likely he's scum. If he's town, there would be a 64% chance that he would randomly pick at least 2 spies out of the other 4 players. My statisitcs aren't up to snuff but if someone is smart enough I think we could actually calculate the odds just based on him proposing that failed team. I suspect it would come out to less than 60% chance that GoP is scum, not enough to outweigh other considerations IMO. But anyways, I'm fine if you want to say GoP is scummiest, but assuming is unwise.

If just one of these statements is false, rigwarl can be scum: Lataro is town; Secret Sabatage was not used successfully on T1mm; Deception was not used successfully on Rigwarl. That's too many assumptions for me. So unfortunately for rigwarl I will not let the "odds" outweigh his content. I made that mistake last game.

T1mm, I really don't think we would have trusted infina more than you. We just would have left you both off future missions. I actually think it's a little suspicious that you think you're easy to blame.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:06 pm UTC

If the mission failed with you ITS and infina cleared by me, how does that not make me 100% spy? I asked this before (2 times iirc) and never got a satisfying answer, and now you FoS me for it.And from my PoV, rig is 100% town as explained above. I don't know, I'm trying to view you as less scummy but you ain't helping yet.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:51 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:If Lataro was spy, he would have no way of informing the other spies that they should use Planting the Evidence on T1mm. So the fact that we know PTE was not used on T1mm is extremely weak evidence that Lataro is not scum.

@rigwarl: That's an interesting point with GoP's flipflop on his proposed team, but it is meaningless unless you assume GoP is scum. I think it's not THAT likely he's scum. If he's town, there would be a 64% chance that he would randomly pick at least 2 spies out of the other 4 players. My statisitcs aren't up to snuff but if someone is smart enough I think we could actually calculate the odds just based on him proposing that failed team. I suspect it would come out to less than 60% chance that GoP is scum, not enough to outweigh other considerations IMO. But anyways, I'm fine if you want to say GoP is scummiest, but assuming is unwise.

Addressing this part first because it's easy: if Lataro was spy, it doesn't matter if they used PTE. He can report whatever he likes. I suggest you read my previous post more carefully.

Regarding GoP, yea, it sucks I wouldn't say more than 60% chance myself, but it's the best I have to go on for now. What do you suggest?

Adam H wrote:If just one of these statements is false, rigwarl can be scum: Lataro is town; Secret Sabatage was not used successfully on T1mm; Deception was not used successfully on Rigwarl. That's too many assumptions for me. So unfortunately for rigwarl I will not let the "odds" outweigh his content. I made that mistake last game.


First, @everyone else trying to decipher this, it reads easier if you take out the double negative (read it as "if one of these two statements is true...")

Now Adam H, I hope my answer to this part should make you happy REGARDLESS WHETHER I AM A SPY OR NOT, since you seemed satisfied to fail 1 mission to catch 2 spies. Lataro is town, SS was used successfully on t1mm. This means t1mm has to be a spy, right? So if you put me and t1mm on a mission together, ITS used on TMG like I suggested, you catch 2 spies with 1 mission if it fails.

Regarding Deception, yea I guess I can't actually make Adam H happy here. I hope I can make everyone else happy though, that there is a 50% to even have Deception in the first place, another 50% after to successfully hit with it, already putting the chances of that at 25% ASSUMING spies chose to use it now. More importantly why would spies waste it on me if I were a spy since apparently everyone on my freaking team thinks I'm a spy anyway. Gah. I mean sure I could be doing reverse psychology but yea, don't really know what else to say.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:58 pm UTC

EBWOPping this, as it appears ypu refuse to understand me.
[AU]
Adam, _infina_ and I just went on a mission. Adam is ITS, and as such cannot afford to fail it. _infina_ is cleared by Tim, and as such, if Tim is resistance, so is _infina_. But, _infina_ is a dangerous spy, and decides to let the mission fail. A resistance member (let's use rig) sees that the mission has failed, and sees the following.
[schematic]
1:Adam PASSED the mission (in-thread).
2: If Tim is town, so is _infina_.
3: The mission failed.
4: Adam did not fail the mission (1)
5: Tim or _infina_ failed the mission. (3 and double negation of 4)
ASSUMPTION A: Tim failed the mission.
A.1: Tim is a spy.
A.2: _infina_ may or may not be a spy, we don't know. No reason not to send out, at least.
ASSUMPTION B: _infina_ failed the mission. (complement of A, together form 5)
B.1: _infina_ is a spy. (directly from B)
B.2: Tim is a spy. (B1 and 2)

6: Tim is a spy. (A.1 and B.2)
7: We can't be sure about _infina_ and Adam but it seems to be all good (4, A2, and given that I'm a spy, A>B)
[/schematic]
[/AU]
Any objections to any particular step? Because I'm done with getting FoSed or asked for this.
Oh, and Adam? I decided to leave you on the scumlist. Just check how you handled the BF thing. "Would it be a coincidence if I used it on TMG?" Well, it's the point of coincidences that it's not, as TMG is nowhere near my scumlist (don't know actual example, reasoning analogous). That, and you going "lol BF will fail that", and you keeping on attacking me on attacking infina after I dropped charges from you... It's enough evidence for me.
@ninja I believe Adam just said that it's extremely unlikely to hit a blind Deception, and seeing how he's the only one to have distributed OC, I'd find it incredibly scummy if he argues that deception is used on you at the same time. Also rig it seems your world becomes easier when you take the AU to be real. Try it, and feel relieved. I'm doing it too, apart from the mission being rejected.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Lataro » Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:26 am UTC

At this point, I say we just say screw it and roll the dice here.

rig/timmy/me

If this passes, all the results are good thus far, and we just have to pick out one more person to run M2 and M3 afterwards.

All the wine and crap is annoying, and this is making me prefer something simple and straightforward playing the odds.

Not that that team is likely to pass here, but that's my two cents, feel free to twist whatever meaning suits your fancy from my indifference here.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:34 am UTC

I mean OK this probably won't affect Adam H, but I want to add the chance of scenario A of a successful SS (scenario B of a successful Deception is 25% assuming everything went perfectly according to spy plans). First, Lataro is town (60%)- actually, you know what, forget this- to stack the odds in your favor let's just assume it's true. They have to have SS (50%). He has to pick a spy (50%). So, a 25% chance of scenario A being true.

I mean seriously if you could can read an individual better than a 75% confirmed game mechanic (through a text medium even!), I would go buy you a ticket to the World Series of Poker right now. Also yea, about reads. The only content that I've posted that you have actually disagreed with is your original plan of "reject any team without me" which pretty much EVERYONE went "wtf?" at, and rightfully so. I mean, why do you trust Boomfrog for example (out of the several I could have picked), who said,
BoomFrog wrote:AdamH's "plan" is assinine. Rejecting all teams without "me" is not really an option because if you don't accept GoP's team then you must accept AdamH or TMG's team. Your proposal is basically, "hay let's let TMG unilaterally decide the team.


I mean, yea, I guess he was smart enough to drop it after that whereas I fruitlessly tried to convince you, but damn man. Posting is good for town. If no one posts, and no one trusts plot powers, I don't care to do the math but I'm pretty sure our chances of winning are like less than 5%. If I was wrong about the main reason for you not trusting me being arguing the follies of the "reject everyone but me" plan, then please do explain what else you find scummy about me besides "my content".
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:41 am UTC

rig, you know you're allowed to suspect or even accuse people and make that known in thread right?
Lataro: I'd be fine with that, but I think we can do something similar without either of us as we /are/ winey at the moment.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:50 am UTC

Ugh, the thing is I still think Adam H is town. Just doesn't understand this game very well.

I really want t1mm on the team, in anyone thinks he's spy please give a better reason than he took a very short term gambit and said in the next post "btw i lied guys", which does NOT strike me as a spy thing to do.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:53 am UTC

if anyone thinks*

Also, I still want to know what do you guys think of me/t1mm/TMG with ITS on TMG. If it fails with ITS passing, then that's like catching 2 spies for 1 mission (I guess from my PoV it IS possible t1mm is spy, but I'm willing to take that chance).
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:00 am UTC

Doesn't in that second to last post refers to Adam, right? If so, he was here before I was, played in Resistance 3 afaik, so if he doesn't, I wonder who does.
On the mission, with that team we don't need ITS on TMG, just put it on whoever BF thinks is most spyish (fun fact: BF has at least a 1/2 chance to be spy from my PoV, more when considering Adam + infi + BF)
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Feb 25, 2012 2:17 am UTC

Sorry guys, been very busy this week.

This is a huge mess! First t1mm lies, now we've got accusations flying everywhere. Lataro says to roll the dice. A few thoughts:

If Adam is spy, and spies have deception, I would wager both infina and rigwarl are spy. Hmm, but that wont work will it, because there would be 3 spies not on the first mission. So, maybe Adam is a spy, and so is T1mm, and spies dont have deception. Or it could simply be Adam, t1mm and rigwarl are all resistance.

Lets go back abit.

From my POV - 2 of Lataro, T1mm, Silknor and Boomfrog are spy. So then, lets presume Adam is spy. He gave OC to t1mm (a member who was cleared by Lataro), ITS to BF and No confidence to infina. If they are a spy, they would use these to maximum potential. OC would not be used in a situation that could out a spy. So, either t1mm is scum, or there are no scum next to t1mm, or deception could be used on them. Since t1mm is part of the team that failed, I think it is likely if Adam is a spy, so is t1mm. The other possibility is that neither t1mm, rigwarl or infina are spy. No confidence can be powerful in spy hands, but it is also one of the powers least damaging to spy in resistance hands. So that doesn't say alot about infina. Then there's ITS to BF. That could hurt spy, but there isn't much way for spies to get around it, as we can force a spy with it to either use it on who we want, or reveal themselves. So that could go either way.

tl;dr if Adam is spy, then most likely t1mm is spy, followed by Lataro and maybe infina. Else Adam is spy, and none of t1mm, rigwarl or infina are, which would probably make BF and maybe Silknor spy.

If Adam isn't a spy....well, I can sorta see trusting t1mm. They were cleared by Lataro (which just means, aside from spy powers, if Lataro isn't a spy, then t1mm isn't). Not sure on the reasons for BF and infina then. BF would be a prime contender for spy if you presume t1mm isn't. I suppose I'll look back and see Adam's reasons for picking those two. That will probably help me decide if I trust Adam or not.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:40 am UTC

Uhm... GoP.. Do you think this last day was mutual bussing? Because seeing how I wasn't under shot by anyone it's rather strange to do. In fact, it seems like you skimmed most of the above, as there is no notion of my accusation of infina and Adam, and their responses. No notion of me saying "from my PoV, rigwarl is resistance" either. If your analysis includes rigwarl as spy, you HAVE to have me as spy as well. Well, or a blind Deception. However, with 2 spies on m4, adam spy and infina spy, there are no spies among TMG/Angua/rigwarl.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby TheMaskedGecko » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:51 am UTC

Provisional Team(Mission: 1)
TheMaskedGecko
Angua
rigwarl

I would suggest that anyone with a power use it on rig, as they're the one I'm least sure of.

@Infina:Sorry about that. I did check but then I forgot.

@rig: when I wrote 1 before, I meant the mission proposed by Adam H.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Lataro » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:26 pm UTC

just saying, I'm gonna reject the shit out of that mission. Take Angua off and put timmy on it.

Also, you know you'll be the known spy if that mission fails, right?
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Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Adam H » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:46 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:Any objections to any particular step? Because I'm done with getting FoSed or asked for this.
I object to the step that says that if infina is spy, t1mm is spy. First, deception could have been used*. Second, we agree that spy-t1mm would be foolish to fail the mission, because (if you ignore the wine for a second) he would be under more suspicion than infina. So then you add in the wine: infina knows this so it's much more likely that infina would fail it, and much less likely t1mm would fail it. The result is that you both are under suspicion and you are left off future missions.

*You assume that deception was used on infina. Then you assume that it could not have been used on rigwarl. At least one of those has to be a bad assumption.

Rigwarl, this is your first resistance game. But you are way too sure of the "correct" strategy, and it seems like you've read over past games - it just makes me think that you were a part of that spy chat at the beginning. And you accepted the last mission that you weren't a part of, which I'm considering a scumtell even if no one else is.
rigwarl wrote:I mean OK this probably won't affect Adam H, but I want to add the chance of scenario A of a successful SS (scenario B of a successful Deception is 25% assuming everything went perfectly according to spy plans). First, Lataro is town (60%)- actually, you know what, forget this- to stack the odds in your favor let's just assume it's true. They have to have SS (50%). He has to pick a spy (50%). So, a 25% chance of scenario A being true.
I have no idea what you are talking about. If Lataro is scum, then probability of scenario A goes down? Is scenario A not t1mm=scum?

Hell, I'm fine with any team this mission, because ITS virtually assures us we'll pass it. I'm concerned about future missions. I will bet mega money that one out of TMG, Angua, and rigwarl is a spy, and when this mission passes we're unfortunately just going to put them right back on the next mission.


I googled "Resistance Strategy" and the very first result totally vindicates me with that whole "vote reject" thing, btw. Enjoy.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Sun Feb 26, 2012 8:01 pm UTC

I'm really pretty much through with this argument. I'm pointing out clearer and clearer what I mean, and small nitpicks keep coming, and they keep on being new. Any old argument is being dropped like a brick whenever I blow in it's direction. That's frustrating, and feels like flailing.
Alright, here we go again.
[hypothetical]
[assumptions]
Let's assume that you're resistance, as that's what you're trying to convince me of.
I just "cleared" infina. The mission is accepted. We're on the mission. You're in the spotlight.
The mission failed. You let the mission pass.
[/assumptions]
And I'll keep the logic as clean as possible, so that the amount of nitpicks will be <9000.
A blind Deception is hard to land, as you made it non-obvious where OC was going (you literally stated the part on OC). This means that if I'm town, so is AUinfina. Through basic logic, that means that if AUI is scum, so am I. This niftily takes out your second argument as well.
[/hypothetical]

Adam H wrote:*You assume that deception was used on infina. Then you assume that it could not have been used on rigwarl. At least one of those has to be a bad assumption.

Where exactly did I assume deception was used on infina? Where did I assume it could not have been used on rigwarl? Why are you so sure one of these two is false?

Why do I have to keep on asking all those questions, and getting so little answers?
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby webby » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:24 pm UTC

A bit less than 24 hours until deadline.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby TheMaskedGecko » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:37 pm UTC

The current team leader is: TheMaskedGecko.
The current mission is: 1.

Proposed Team Member 1:TheMaskedGecko
Proposed Team Member 2:rigwarl
Proposed Team Member 3:T1mm01994


I believe this means that if we fail, then we've got rig, t1m and lataro on the spy team.
Feel free to spotlight me if you wish (as if I could convince you otherwise).
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby t1mm01994 » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:41 pm UTC

Nice way of getting around this, I approve. Sadly, if this mission passes, it's far from a guarantee that I'm resistance, but eh, we've got a mission, so it's all good. I'll be honestly hugely surprised if this mission fails.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby webby » Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:00 pm UTC

24 hours to vote, deadline at 10am AEDST Tuesday. Silknor to vote publicly in thread, everyone else to PM me. If you wish to use powers conditional on mission being accepted, let me know.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Silknor » Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:43 am UTC

ACCEPT
Nikc wrote:Silknor is the JJ Abrams of mafia modding
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:32 am UTC

Not entirely happy with the lack of discussion but I am very happy with TMG's proposal.

@Adam H, way too many people have explained why the link you posted is not relevant way too many times already so this is the last thing I will say about it, since apparently you still think it was a good idea despite the fact that not a single other person out of the 9 of us think it's even remotely feasible: 5 =/= 3.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Adam H » Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:48 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:
Adam H wrote:*You assume that deception was used on infina. Then you assume that it could not have been used on rigwarl. At least one of those has to be a bad assumption.
Where exactly did I assume deception was used on infina? Where did I assume it could not have been used on rigwarl? Why are you so sure one of these two is false?
Well now you're just grasping at straws. First, both could easily be true, or false. The key word is ASSUMPTION. And you DEFINITELY assume that rigwarl is town, and that infina would be scum even if you got a town result on him. Cut the bullshit.
t1mm01994 wrote:So, under hypothesis Adam is scum, so is infina, which lets rig off the hook.
t1mm01994 wrote:Given that you're scum, how easy would it be to lure ITS on you, let infina fail the mission and blame me for it? Because I suspect that's still what's going to happen.
t1mm01994 wrote:@rig, I've got y'all down on the 90% resistance list.
t1mm01994 wrote:I'll bet ya a 20 that this mission will fail, if accepted.
t1mm01994 wrote:Fun thing is now, that Adam (under hypothesis:scum) proposes a team and says "you can use ITS on me" which means there's another scum on that mission, and it ain't me.


Rigwarl, there hasn't been a single thing posted regarding the "don't vote accept to everything" that I haven't shot down easily. I'm sick of the "lalalalala I can't hear you".

Good news: This mission will pass, or we'll catch spy. Bad news: We're screwed either way.
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Mon Feb 27, 2012 3:55 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:Rigwarl, there hasn't been a single thing posted regarding the "don't vote accept to everything" that I haven't shot down easily. I'm sick of the "lalalalala I can't hear you".


The irony is killing me that you "easily shooting it down" is linking something a completely random guy said about a game with a different ruleset with absolutely no explanation about how it applies here (hint: it doesn't).
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby Adam H » Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:22 pm UTC

No, I stopped discussing it because I had already addressed every single problem you've come up with, and you started repeating yourself. And then you insult my skill at this game when I'm the most experienced player here, which makes me angry. It just so happens that I'm right, and you're wrong.

The Creater of Resistance, Travis Worthington wrote:One bit of strategy that often is overlooked in the first couple of plays is that if everyone votes yes for a mission team it is going to fail. because if everyone votes yes that means the spies are voting yes.

Likewise if everyone is voting no (or almost everyone) then its likely that the spies are unhappy with the assignments - so maybe it is a good mission team (for The Resistance).

More than anything it is important to ask people why they voted the way that they did. If everyone is voting yes just to be polite, or because they don't have any facts against the people on the team - you are missing the game.
-Adam
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Re: The Resistance 4 (0-1, Mission 2 Setup)

Postby rigwarl » Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:37 pm UTC

You didn't address either of my 2 most recent posts on the topic. MORE IMPORTANTLY, you didn't address why you think I'm scummy besides the fact that I, like every single other person here that said anything, does not agree with you.

Adam H wrote: It just so happens that I'm right, and you're wrong.


Man, your arguments are truly phenomenal. This one has me convinced.
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