North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

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North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby jestingrabbit » Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:26 am UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/01/world ... s&emc=tha2

WASHINGTON — North Korea announced on Wednesday that it would suspend its nuclear weapons tests and uranium enrichment and allow international inspectors to monitor activities at its main nuclear complex. The surprise announcement raised the possibility of ending a diplomatic impasse that has allowed the country’s nuclear program to continue for years without international oversight.


This is good news. A victory for diplomacy, a chance for the North Korean people to have enough to eat, and an indication that the new leadership is open to making agreements with the outside world. All good things.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Zamfir » Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:40 am UTC

The UN paid One Million Dollar for this
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Ghostbear » Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:51 am UTC

Wow, that is unexpected. I wonder what it means for the internal balance of power- does it mean Jong-un has successfully consolidated most of the power he wants for himself (and thus, able to get away with this) or is he having issues, and this is a targeted move to force his internal opposition to act more openly? Or it could be an attempt to either make Iran look worse, or to draw attention away from them. Well, regardless of my flailing attempts to look deeper into it, this is good news.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby sardia » Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:20 pm UTC

Ghostbear wrote:Wow, that is unexpected. I wonder what it means for the internal balance of power- does it mean Jong-un has successfully consolidated most of the power he wants for himself (and thus, able to get away with this) or is he having issues, and this is a targeted move to force his internal opposition to act more openly? Or it could be an attempt to either make Iran look worse, or to draw attention away from them. Well, regardless of my flailing attempts to look deeper into it, this is good news.

The cynical perspective is this is a repeat of Bush's earlier attempt at thawing relations. N. Korea offered the same thing, demanded more, then reneged on the whole deal. After taking and keeping the food and fuel aid of course.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Dauric » Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:55 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
Ghostbear wrote:Wow, that is unexpected. I wonder what it means for the internal balance of power- does it mean Jong-un has successfully consolidated most of the power he wants for himself (and thus, able to get away with this) or is he having issues, and this is a targeted move to force his internal opposition to act more openly? Or it could be an attempt to either make Iran look worse, or to draw attention away from them. Well, regardless of my flailing attempts to look deeper into it, this is good news.

The cynical perspective is this is a repeat of Bush's earlier attempt at thawing relations. N. Korea offered the same thing, demanded more, then reneged on the whole deal. After taking and keeping the food and fuel aid of course.


Unfortunately with N.Korea "I'll believe it when I see it" is the operative phrase. It's nice to have gotten back to this point in negotiations, but until the inspectors are in the field it's still negotiation tactics.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Ghostbear » Thu Mar 01, 2012 5:09 pm UTC

Well, it's still an improvement in the sense of them seeing a point to communicating with the rest of the world. Even if that point is "We get free stuff!", it still gives everyone else some kind of leveredge to work with.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby yedidyak » Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:44 pm UTC

Ghostbear wrote:Well, it's still an improvement in the sense of them seeing a point to communicating with the rest of the world. Even if that point is "We get free stuff!", it still gives everyone else some kind of leveredge to work with.


Unless its 'We will build nukes until you feed our people. Then when we run out of food again, we will build some more.'
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Ghostbear » Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:53 pm UTC

It'd still give the west something to use as leveredge. Also, I'm working under the assumption that we learned our lesson from last time and will structure any aid we send to make them just taking it and reneging on their promise more difficult. If they still find a way to do it, then we still learned something for the next time, and so on and so forth. It's not perfect, but at the very least it creates something (however flawed) to work with, instead of the nothing of before. Especially since it at least means they're willing to communicate with the rest of the world- it gives some hope. I'll take that over the alternative of absolutely nothing.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby yedidyak » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:09 pm UTC

Ghostbear wrote:It'd still give the west something to use as leveredge. Also, I'm working under the assumption that we learned our lesson from last time and will structure any aid we send to make them just taking it and reneging on their promise more difficult. If they still find a way to do it, then we still learned something for the next time, and so on and so forth. It's not perfect, but at the very least it creates something (however flawed) to work with, instead of the nothing of before. Especially since it at least means they're willing to communicate with the rest of the world- it gives some hope. I'll take that over the alternative of absolutely nothing.


Oh for sure. If the price of a few years of a non-nuclear NK is that their people don't starve, then great. Just that there has to be some sort of endgame, and I don't think that it can include the pseudo-Communist monarchy that's there now.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby sourmìlk » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:10 pm UTC

Ultimately this is appeasement, and that's a pretty dangerous strategy. If North Korea has honest intentions, then I don't have a problem with this. And if global warming denialists turn out to be right, then I'm glad the environment isn't being trashed.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Ghostbear » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:26 pm UTC

yedidyak wrote:Oh for sure. If the price of a few years of a non-nuclear NK is that their people don't starve, then great. Just that there has to be some sort of endgame, and I don't think that it can include the pseudo-Communist monarchy that's there now.

Of course, just that's not really a goal that we can make into a short term one. With the way the country is run now, I'd expect it'd probably take decades to turn into a non-oppressive state. Small victories like this are exactly what we need. If we see the chance for a big victory, then it might be worth taking, but until then, just slowly working on the smaller ones is the best chance we have of making North Korea be a better place- for its citizens, for its neighbors, or for everyone else.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Dauric » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:46 pm UTC

Ghostbear wrote:
yedidyak wrote:Oh for sure. If the price of a few years of a non-nuclear NK is that their people don't starve, then great. Just that there has to be some sort of endgame, and I don't think that it can include the pseudo-Communist monarchy that's there now.

Of course, just that's not really a goal that we can make into a short term one. With the way the country is run now, I'd expect it'd probably take decades to turn into a non-oppressive state. Small victories like this are exactly what we need. If we see the chance for a big victory, then it might be worth taking, but until then, just slowly working on the smaller ones is the best chance we have of making North Korea be a better place- for its citizens, for its neighbors, or for everyone else.


It's only a victory if N.Korea holds up their end of the deal. If they kick the inspectors out of the country moments after the check clears then it's no victory at all, at best it's foreign aid.

N.Korea has kicked out IAEA inspectors before. The only ray of light here is that it's a new dictator at the top, however there's too many unknowns, like if he's consolidated power to actually have control, and of course that suddenly becoming the head-of-state hasn't caused him to become batshit insane.

This agreement is in many ways a test of Kim Jong-Un as a leader, to see if he pulls the same shennanigans Jong-Il did in his day, or if Jong-Un will keep his word.

The test is on the desk, Kim Jong-Un still has to answer the questions.
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Vaniver » Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:52 am UTC

Yeah, why is the title "North Korea has suspended nuclear activities" rather than "North Korea announces the suspension of nuclear activities"?
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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby jestingrabbit » Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:54 pm UTC

Vaniver wrote:Yeah, why is the title "North Korea has suspended nuclear activities" rather than "North Korea announces the suspension of nuclear activities"?


We don't know what's going on in there atm. It could be that this agreement won't be fulfilled. It could be the start of an actual reduction in hostilities.

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Re: North Korea has suspended nuclear activities.

Postby Vieto » Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:13 am UTC

Zamfir wrote:The UN paid One Million Dollar for this


Isn't that the plot for the first Austin Powers movie?
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