xkcd

by **Azrael001** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:54 pm UTC

I'm not certain, but I do have hunches that I trust more than I should at times. Cross-pollination from Firefly had me thinking that we'd hit more scum than we did.

by **Adam H** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:58 pm UTC

Yeah I take back the clueless comment. I wasn't thinking about being in more than 1 game.

by **mpolo** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:12 am UTC

Mostlynormal really hasn't been helping his "looking scummy" vibe over the course of the last day of posting.

Night 1 is still the big puzzler for me. Unless we have an all-Gryffindor scum team. But Mostlynormal is so incredibly scummy I am having a hard time getting my mind around his possibly being town.

On Night 1, fearless (town) investigated roband, getting a town result.
However, roband reportedly blocked fearless, so she shouldn't have had a result. If nothing interfered with this, the whole house would have to be in on this confusing move.
There could be a scum block or redirector, but we haven't seen much more evidence of that, have we?

by **roband** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:33 am UTC

Azrael001 wrote:That both of them have investigation results that have come up town?

Unless there is some scum power that can consistently obfuscate the results of an investigation, which would be both extremely powerful, and not really something that I would expect in a "newbies game", then none of the results are trustworthy and we are back to square one.

Or the more simple answer... You are scum and you're lying about your scumbuddy FAOT.

mpolo wrote:Night 1 is still the big puzzler for me. Unless we have an all-Gryffindor scum team.

You know that Gryffindor is not all scum, Greenlover died last night and was announced as town...

Night 1 funny business must have had something to do with Tim.
If you take night 1 and Tim out of this game completely, it becomes very obvious. Therefore, could Tim be to blame for the weirdness on N1? Maybe.

by **BoomFrog** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:26 am UTC

Action notes:

Spoiler:

roband wrote:Night 1 funny business must have had something to do with Tim.
If you take night 1 and Tim out of this game completely, it becomes very obvious. Therefore, could Tim be to blame for the weirdness on N1? Maybe.

Just handwave N1 away? I'm not talking about the fearless not-actually-roleblocked which is very weird, I'm talking about the lack of a nightkill. The roleblock obviously didn't stop the kill, therefore it was withheld or blocked by the doctor. The doctor protected FAOT N1 and that was known amongst hufflepuff. Therefore FAOT is town or he is scum who decided to withhold the kill to earn towny cred D1. However, considering that t1mm didn't know where the RB was going FAOT wouldn't necessarily get any town cred out of the move, and give up a NK is a high price to pay, it virtually guarantees that there will be an extra lynch and extra night of investigations which is terrible for scum. There's no reason they would try something so desperate on N1. Therefore there are no scum in Hufflepuff.

I also agree with MN's reasoning that one of FAOT or Roband must be scum according to the results N3. Therefore Roband is scum.

I'll wait on hammering though in case someone sees a flaw in my logic.

by **roband** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:49 am UTC

Oh, I'm at hammer? Nice.

BoomFrog, when I turn up town, that makes FAOT scum and thus Az is scum, right?

by **Adam H** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 3:52 pm UTC

@BF: N2, secondshadow was NKed and roband roleblocked t1mm

by **Azrael001** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:24 pm UTC

I still think that mostlynormal is scum, and I think that if we follow his "lynch everyone" plan then we will lose.

by **roband** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:25 pm UTC

Let's just do this. Remember what you all promised.

Vote: roband

by **Azrael001** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:49 pm UTC

Sigh.

by **Adam H** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:46 pm UTC

I'll be the tracker from slytherin tonight, so it would probably behoove hufflepuff to heal me. Unless you want to wing it in hopes of blocking the kill. Regardless, I don't think this anti-scum wine can't hurt.

by **Gopher of Pern** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:33 pm UTC

Roband has been lynched. It is now Night 5.

Will update later with house points and votals.

by **Azrael001** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 8:32 pm UTC

Is it later yet?

by **Azrael001** » Mon Mar 05, 2012 6:35 pm UTC

Bump?

by **t1mm01994** » Mon Mar 05, 2012 6:36 pm UTC

It seems GoP has wonderously dissappeared from the forums..

by **Lataro** » Mon Mar 05, 2012 6:43 pm UTC

It'll be two weeks in a bit here, after that, I'd consider it dead if a mod has abandoned a game for a full two weeks.

Edit: Alternatively to it being dead, all remaining players could truthfully send their role PMs to an outside player and that person takes over as mod to finish it. I'd volunteer, but there would be zero flavor, and I'd pry drop the house scoring to make it easier, so if someone else wanted to, and actually knew the flavor crap involved, that would pry be best.

by **mpolo** » Mon Mar 05, 2012 8:07 pm UTC

It'd be great to finish this… Since we're losing the house points anyway, I'm not particularly worried about those:

by **ForAllOfThis** » Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:59 pm UTC

Scum must have killed GoP during the night!

by **Azrael001** » Tue Mar 06, 2012 1:49 am UTC

At least you lot have all got people that you could have been messaging. I've got no one, you killed them all. I'm so lonely. :cry:

by **t1mm01994** » Tue Mar 06, 2012 1:55 am UTC

Don't feel too bad though, at least you're still alive "plays Nearly Headless Nick here"

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:11 am UTC

Lataro wrote:Edit: Alternatively to it being dead, all remaining players could truthfully send their role PMs to an outside player and that person takes over as mod to finish it. I'd volunteer, but there would be zero flavor, and I'd pry drop the house scoring to make it easier, so if someone else wanted to, and actually knew the flavor crap involved, that would pry be best.

If no one else is volunteering to mod I would be happy to have Lataro do this. Drop house points, and if GoP ever comes back he can update the house points and declare extra wins whenever that may be.

by **Azrael001** » Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:15 pm UTC

I am also fine with this.

by **Lataro** » Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:55 pm UTC

I have gotten a couple role pm's already. If no one objects I'll go ahead and finish this up. Send me your role pm and any actions taken this night. I'll be taking people's word on who is doing the actions so be clear about it. Once all pm's are to me I'll call start of day. Since I can't edit the thread keep an eye on it for updates.

by **Lataro** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:39 am UTC

Roband is dead, town, that G house.
Az was NK'ed, town, Ravenclaw.

Living players remaining:
3 - mostlynormal (I've got nothing to say, and I am saying it!)
4 - Adam H (Don't believe GoP - scum is all slytherin)
6 - ForAllOfThis (I really like the reward system in place for active players)
10 - mpolo (a.k.a Evil Ron in HarryPotterMafia)
12 - Boomfrog

The remaining houses will get PMs for the results of their actions as soon as they get back to me and inform me of the format used prior, so I can stick to that for consistency.

Day Six can go ahead and start now, take as long as you feel you need.

Anything I missed, feel free to ask, I am pretty sure though that I got everything covered.

by **Mostlynormal** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 2:41 am UTC

Well that's a significant blow to my confidence. We now have town results on everyone but me and Boomfrog by people confirmed as town by death. From my perspective, that means there's definitely a godfather out there. Two godfathers seems pretty unlikely, so I guess that makes Boomfrog scum. Even if Az was town, FAOT is still probably scum since Roband was town. That makes my scumteam Boomfrog and FAOT. I'd be willing to vote either one right now--I'm more certain about Boomfrog (since two godfathers makes little sense), but since not everyone has my perspective I'd be willing to go for FAOT.

As a house we gave BF the doctor ability and he targeted Adam H.

The paranoia is starting to set in though. If FAOT was scum it wouldn't make sense for scum to NK Az, since my entire plan was to lynch FAOT then Az. Wait, no (stream of conciousness ftw!), since FAOT is a godfather if scum, he might've known that lynching him would reveal him as a godfather and make us less certain about Az. Well, whatever, Yay Paranoia! I'd really prefer to lynch BF but I'm not sure I can convince the rest of you that he's scum.

by **mpolo** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:15 am UTC

I have a feeling that our result is going to be useless -- Adam wanted to try to goad scum into killing me, so he watched me. I presume he had a boring night, unless someone protected me, of course.

I had really convinced myself that roband was scum, even if I didn't make it in time to vote. I technically didn't promise roband anything, but his dying wish was very likely correct -- I see no way that both he and ForAllOfThis could possibly both be town.

by **BoomFrog** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 9:46 am UTC

Well there are some ways, but a GF FAOT makes a lot more sense. Still I'd rather lynch MN first but I guess that can wait until tomorrow.

by **Adam H** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 3:23 pm UTC

Nothing happened with Mpolo last night.

It's really surprising that scum killed Az. If mpolo and FAOT (and me) are truly town, then scum would be stupid to confirm that.

MN is wrong about this (which, to his credit, he sort of retracts):

Mostlynormal wrote:If FAOT was scum it wouldn't make sense for scum to NK Az, since my entire plan was to lynch FAOT then Az.

If scum-FAOT didn't kill Az, they'd either kill me, mpolo, BF, or MN. If they kill BF or MN then that makes it more likely that FAOT is scum (which she is, in this hypothetical scenario), so that's no good. Keep in mind that if we lynch one more scum, slytherins power gets much much better (I'm assuming there's 2 scum left). So scum really want to finish this today. And getting rid of the town-cop has got to feel good.

I really need to go back and think about why I'm sure mpolo is town. He's been really really lucky if he's scum, letting me take the action almost every night without a clue who I'm targetting. And he hasn't been trying to get me lynched, which would be preferable if he were scum so that the tracker power turns worthless (worse than worthless, actually). But then again, if he were scum, he'd obviously be playing a smart scum game to make it this far.

Can everyone tell me why they trust mpolo and me? It's kind of unnerving, honestly.

Uh, and don't vote.

Care to tell us if we're at lylo?

by **Adam H** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 4:29 pm UTC

EBWOP:
Eh, nevermind about the lylo question. Having doctors messes that up.

by **mpolo** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:52 pm UTC

I was investigated by Azrael on N2. That's why you know that I am town, Adam.

We have two confirmed town, likely two scum, and one non-confirmed town at the moment.

Mostlynormal went through an extremely scummy period yesterday, and FAOT has been so tied up in the weirdness surrounding roband that I am reasonably certain of his scumminess as well.

It occurred to me at some point that maybe both "investigative" houses were all town, so as to keep the most important town powers in town hands. I basically discarded that idea, and it seems to have turned out to be true.

Do we have a "town" result on FAOT?

by **Adam H** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 8:43 pm UTC

Sorry, buddy, FAOT was investigated as well. We have three "confirmed townies" (myself, you, and FAOT) and two unchecked (BF and MN). That you were not killed last night is a big red flag for me.

Here are the votes from yesterday, in order:
Azrael - Vote: MostlyNormal
Adam – Vote: MostlyNormal
Adam – Unvote; Vote: Roband
MostlyNormal – Vote: Roband
FAOT – Vote: roband
MostlyNormal – Unvote; Vote: FAOT
MostlyNormal – Unvote; Vote: Roband
Roband – Vote: Roband

Seems like BF and mpolo are the calm voices of reason, doesn't it... I am definitely leaning towards a MN+FAOT scumteam.

Oh, and three townies suiciding in one game? Ugh ugh ugh UGH.

by **mpolo** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 9:22 pm UTC

Maybe the thing to do is to lynch MostlyNormal and then hope that we can manage to keep the one of us who tracks tonight to stay alive. One more tracking result should fully identify a lone conspiracist among BoomFrog and FAOT. I hope. I agree with you that MostlyNormal / FAOT seems to be the most likely scum pairing.

by **Adam H** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:38 pm UTC

Vote: MostlyNormal

by **Adam H** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:58 pm UTC

Just seeing what I could fish out of people... I'm such a troll.

Unvote

by **Mostlynormal** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:14 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:Vote: MostlyNormal

What the heck? Ok, so it's at least understandable to have me on your scumteam at the moment. But I think we can all agree that FAOT is much more likely to be scum! So why don't we lynch him first, the one who we promised to lynch yesterday, instead of the one who's about 50-50 right now?

mpolo wrote:Mostlynormal went through an extremely scummy period yesterday, and FAOT has been so tied up in the weirdness surrounding roband that I am reasonably certain of his scumminess as well.

What, the scummy period in which I insisted we lynch the person you've all got on your scumlists today? I don't see what's wrong with being a little aggressive.

Adam H wrote:Seems like BF and mpolo are the calm voices of reason, doesn't it... I am definitely leaning towards a MN+FAOT scumteam.

"Calm voice of reason" seems alot more like "holding back the vote so as not to commit" to me.

Adam H wrote:Can everyone tell me why they trust mpolo and me? It's kind of unnerving, honestly.

Yesterday I mostly trusted you because you weren't in the spotlight. Today I trust you because I'm 99% sure of a FAOT/BF scumteam.

Ninja'd by Adam: Haha very funny!
I think whatever we do today we should lynch FAOT first and then worry about the others tommorrow. Even though I'm 99.99% sure about BF and *only* 99% sure about FAOT, I know that BF would protest just as strongly to himself being voted if he wants to look anything like town. Unfortunately the doctor is useless any more, unless BF by some miracle lets me use it tonight, but hopefully by watching one of us will settle the question for sure tommorrow.

by **ForAllOfThis** » Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:09 am UTC

If we have two scum left then we are at lylo. A mislynch results in a 2/2 even if the doctor is successful tonight, meaning a scum win (they will control 50% of the vote). It's really crucial we hit scum with this lynch today. Also, a NL and successful block won't work, as I'm sure the other two members of my team will out-vote me for the power so they can guarantee their win.

From my perspective, it's pretty obvious we are looking at a MN + BF scum team now. I think it's no coincidence as soon as I give up control of the doctor, that Azrael dies the same night. I was alternating on protecting him so that scum could never be sure if I was or wasn't. Kept him alive until I lost the power. He was going to have to investigate one of them tonight so if they didn't kill him last night, then the game would have been up today. I can only assume their plan was to kill Az to spill some wine over me and hope there's enough accumulated wine from the weirdness with roband to outweigh Az's town result on me. On top of that, both of them reached for the FAOT is a godfather argument as soon as the day started instead of considering other possibilities.

@Adam: I trust you and mpolo over MN + BF because of Az's results. You've claimed that you've done checks on each other as well using the power, so it wouldn't make any sense at all for Az to claim you were town if you weren't. There is a nagging in the back of my head that says 'What if I'm wrong?' mostly directed at the weirdness surrounding myself and fearless which suggests power switching abilites (possibly scum have to give up the NK to control, explains mine and fearless's results) which could mean that you've got yourselves confirmed as town. In that scenario though the absent NK's would have to coincide with you or mpolo being copped and only yours did. It's an extremely complicated turn of events though and I prefer the simpler explanations, which in this case is a BF + MN scum team.I guess there is an outside chance that you are scum though Adam, but it seems unlikely.

by **Adam H** » Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:13 pm UTC

What does everyone think happened N1? No NK, and fearless getting roleblocked yet receiving a (true) cop result. We know that FAOT wasn't attacked because there's at least one scum in hufflepuff, so that's no longer an explanation for the lack of NK.

I think it's most likely that Mafia can trade their NK for an unknown "experimental" power (see how that fits with the bayesian conspiracy flavor). I'm guessing the first night they got a roleblock. I don't think anything screwy ended up happening N3 other than the lack of NK. After the first night they might have just realized that trading the NK for a power isn't worth it. Or FAOT might be inno and they got a power N3 that didn't end up being useful.

by **Adam H** » Fri Mar 09, 2012 10:33 pm UTC

ForAllOfThis wrote:From my perspective, it's pretty obvious we are looking at a MN + BF scum team now. I think it's no coincidence as soon as I give up control of the doctor, that Azrael dies the same night... He was going to have to investigate one of them tonight so if they didn't kill him last night, then the game would have been up today.

No, the game would not have been up. We would be operating under the assumption that FAOT and Az are scum, so we'd discount whatever Az said and we'd lynch FAOT no matter what. At least, I would have. A mislynch means a scum win (assuming there's 2 more scum), so we couldn't do a "lynch BF/MN and then if they're town we know Az is scum".

It does not make sense to me for an MN+BF scumteam to kill Az. It would be a very gutsy move. Mpolo had a motive for killing Az, because he knew I wasn't tracking him. FAOT had a motive for killing Az, because he knew we'd lynch him unless he could discount roband. But I think the scum team of BF+MN definitely should have targetted mpolo, UNLESS it was obvious I was going to track mpolo, but I don't think you guys could guess that I was tracking mpolo rather than Az.

Scum has gotten really really lucky this game, that's for sure.

by **mpolo** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:20 am UTC

"Bayesian" would seem to suggest something probabilistic, I suppose -- I just thought that was based on the fanfic that we mentioned at the start of this all. I've been going over N1 over and over again and I don't come up with anything convincing.

roband (town) blocked fearless (town), who nonetheless got a town result on roband out of that night. There has to be a scum power involved. Adam may be right that it is not coincidence that there was no kill (i.e. any extra powers are combined with loss of the kill for that night). Otherwise, we have to assume that the kill went against the person who was protected, but that would be FAOT. But if FAOT is town, then his housemate has to be scum, so scum would have known full well that he was being protected and not wasted their kill there. N3 was our other kill-less night, but N5 had a kill, so it's not an alternating nights thing.

On the other hand, it is pretty clear that we haven't had any recruiting powers in this conspiracy now, because we would have already lost if that were the case.

I may not get back to this tomorrow (today) -- parent-teacher conference…

by **Mostlynormal** » Sat Mar 10, 2012 8:59 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:What does everyone think happened N1? No NK, and fearless getting roleblocked yet receiving a (true) cop result. We know that FAOT wasn't attacked because there's at least one scum in hufflepuff, so that's no longer an explanation for the lack of NK.

I still think FAOT held back the kill to get townie cred. Anything else is just needlessly complicated and it makes perfect sense that they'd do that.

I think I'll go ahead and vote FAOT. I"m convinced beyond most reasonable doubt that he's scum and besides this is a lynch mob, not a courtroom. Then it'll be down to me and BF and I'll have to hope that you choose the right one.

Vote: FAOT

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