Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Adam H » Sat Mar 10, 2012 11:08 pm UTC

I guess we'll find out if mpolo and BF are the scum team then.

*fingers crossed*
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Mostlynormal » Sun Mar 11, 2012 12:13 am UTC

I seriously doubt that. If FAOT was town I'd be very surprised.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Sun Mar 11, 2012 10:07 am UTC

The thing that worries me here is that we are trusting someone that we almost all have questions about. Of course he's leading the lynch against another we have questions about. I had convinced myself that MostlyNormal was the safer of the two probable scum to lynch; I will have to go back and read what made me nervous before to see if that has been relativized in the intervening time.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby ForAllOfThis » Sun Mar 11, 2012 1:12 pm UTC

I don't really have much else to add. I made my case in the last post, all of the signs are pointing towards a BF + MN scum team in my eyes. I think MN has been the scummier since the start (of which I've made several posts about over the days) so that's where I'll be voting. I'm asking for a little trust because we can still win this if we lynch the right person today.

Vote: MostlyNormal

I'd be quite happy to lynch BF as well if others make a good case that he's a better target.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Adam H » Sun Mar 11, 2012 2:01 pm UTC

I'll vote BF if both MN and FAOT change their votes to BF.

Otherwise I'll flip a coin (or wait for BF and mpolo to hammer).
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:44 pm UTC

So, we have three people who are really unsure about what to do and the other two are voting for each other.

And I was kind of thinking about a MostlyNormal/FAOT scumteam. Anybody want to enumerate the arguments in pro and contra for this? The main problem is that town result for FAOT, as far as I can tell. Otherwise, MostlyNormal and BoomFrog are the only two players without a town result on them. Is that plausible as a scum team?

If the scum really does have a power (which seems necessary to get night 1 to work out), I'm not sure how likely a Godfather in addition is.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Mar 12, 2012 2:35 am UTC

There is either a GF or scum have a redirector and have either gotten very lucky to avoid the watcher when using it or AdamH is scum since Adam is the one doing most of the private targeting in slitherin right? And either Adam has tricked all of town, or he actually is town, I'm not going to do a reread and I'm just going to assume that's right, because if Adam is scum then where really just rolling a die here at this point.

Still no idea what happened D1. Withheld kill doesn't make much sense on D1 when it very well may be totally wasted wine.

I'm going to go with:

Vote: FAOT
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Mostlynormal » Mon Mar 12, 2012 3:23 am UTC

Adam H wrote:I'll vote BF if both MN and FAOT change their votes to BF.

Otherwise I'll flip a coin (or wait for BF and mpolo to hammer).

Wait, you're willing to assume BF is scum if the two other scummy players both want to vote him, but you'll have to flip a coin to decide between me and FAOT?

mpolo wrote:Otherwise, MostlyNormal and BoomFrog are the only two players without a town result on them. Is that plausible as a scum team?

No. Despite the uncertainty caused by Az's death, the events of a few nights ago indicate that FAOT is almost definitely scum.

mpolo wrote:And I was kind of thinking about a MostlyNormal/FAOT scumteam. anytorso want to enumerate the arguments in pro and contra for this?

How about I've been gunning for lynching him (or possibly Roband) since back when it was considered scummy to do so? If I was on a scumteam with him I wouldn't have pushed so hard for the lynch Roband-then-FAOT thing, since that certainly wasn't earning me any townie points.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Mon Mar 12, 2012 7:19 am UTC

I feel so utterly lost in this. I might as well get a couple of house points (not that they matter any more) and:

Vote: ForAllOfThis

If I'm wrong, congratulations, scum.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Lataro » Mon Mar 12, 2012 7:42 am UTC

FAOT has been lynched.

It is now Night Six.

Actions please! Day Seven will start as soon as I got all the actions in!
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Lataro » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:05 am UTC

FAOT is dead, he was scum.

No one was killed last night.

It is now Day Seven, four players remain.

Result PMs incoming shortly.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Adam H » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:24 am UTC

Unless there's a convincing doc result, I imagine we're going to NL, unless that's not allowed...

Since neither FAOT nor MN switched their votes to BF after I told them it would save them from the lynch, I'm inclined to believe that BF is scum and MN is town. But it was probably really transparent what I was fishing for (was it? MN seemed confused.), and BF did pretty much put a hammer in FAOT's coffin, so I'm not sure we can trust that...
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Mostlynormal » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:33 am UTC

There is indeed a convincing doc result! I doctored mpolo last night! I'll post more later but I wanted to get out there first in case BF decides to falseclaim somet hing.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Mostlynormal » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:39 am UTC

Ok so here's the story. I'll paraphrase PM's since I'm not sure about the rules concerning that.

BF asked for the doctor, whether I was going to pretend I wasn't scum

I responded he no longer needed to pretend he was town but voted myself for the power, offering to let him create wine.

He responded that it wouldn't hurt to give me the doctor if I was scum.

I protected mpolo, then posted a wine-filled comment in house chat about my target.

Again, I'll post more later but I want to get my side of the story out now since I don't know what BF is planning to say.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:42 am UTC

Well yesterday I was entertaining the possibility that AdamH might be scum, since, as he's said, scum has been VERY lucky to avoid slitherin tracking. However MN did a pretty good job of convincing me that he is scum last night so I'm comfortable just lynching him right now.

FYI, I let him use the doctor since a probably-scum doctor is still better then no doctor and he refused to let me have the doc. He protected mpolo.

I don't see how NL really helps us, we're down to a 50/50 here either way.

Vote: Mostly Normal

Ninja'd, but that really doesn't change anything.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Mostlynormal » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:59 am UTC

So anyway, I guess there are two options here: BF was scum hoping to spread wine by giving me the doctor power, or he was town who genuinely though he had nothing to lose. Though it's hard not to be paranoid this late in the game, I still think it's highly unlikely that scum had two godfathers or any kind of redirect power that got lucky twice in a row. I'm going to mostly operate on the assumption that BF is scum unless he somehow redeems himself or Adam does something horribly scummy.

Adam H wrote:Since neither FAOT nor MN switched they's votes 2 BF after I told they it would save they from the lynch, HULK inclined 2 believe that BF be scum and MN be town. But it be'd probably really transparent what I be'd fishing for (be'd it? MN seemed confused.)

To be honest, it was actually pretty transparent to me. I acted confused both in case it might trip someone else up and to look more innocent. It was dangerous though, at first I considered switching to Boomfrog (despite being town) just to avoid a battle with FAOT.

I'm expecting one of two things from Boomfrog. Either he'll side himself with me by confirming my doctor power and try to make Adam H look scummy (something he might also do if he were town), or he'll say I'm lying about the night action and try to get me lynched, which will confirm my suspicions but put me under suspicion myself.

Ninja'd by Boomfrog: So he took a hybrid. Good choice, it casts suspicion on me and Adam H. However, you're still just convincing me more that you're scum. What did I do last night that was so scummy, actually try to get the doctor power? Not really buying it. If we're both somehow town in a downward spiral of OMGUS then well played Adam, but at this point I seriously doubt that.

Vote: Boomfrog


Remember guys, I was the one who was the biggest danger to FAOT three days in a row, at the cost of my own reputation.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:14 am UTC

Mostlynormal wrote:any kind of redirect power that got lucky twice in a row.

If Adam is scum and he (or FAOT) had a redirect power then once there was only one Ravenclaw left they didn't have to be lucky at all to have the cop keep returning town results. And since Scum-Adam was doing the tracking scum weren't in danger of being caught. No luckiness needed.

However, you never considered that and just completely assumed I'm scum. Town-MN would have had at least a bit of doubt. And town-MN would have preferred a chance that I could be a useful doctor over having a split vote and no one using the power.
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:02 am UTC

MostlyNormal targeted me last night and was targeted by no one.

Hence: MostlyNormal is town. Which leaves two possibilities, only one of which is very convincing:

A) Adam H is a _second_ godfather…

OR

B) BoomFrog is scum.

For obvious reasons, I am doubting A with a most sincere doubt.

Therefore, BoomFrog must be scum.

Vote: BoomFrog
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:52 am UTC

mpolo wrote:MostlyNormal targeted I last night and be'd targeted by no one.

Hence: MostlyNormal be town. Which leaves 2 possibilities, only one of which be very convincing:

A) Adam H be a _second_ godfather…

OR

B) BoomFrog be scum.

For obvious reasons, HULK doubting A with a most sincere doubt.

Therefore, BoomFrog must be scum.

Vote: BoomFrog

Or

C) Mostlynormal withheld the kill to create wine?
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Re: Hogwarts Game of Thrones [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Tue Mar 13, 2012 9:46 am UTC

Unvote

I suppose that's a possibility. We'd better talk this out.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Adam H » Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:04 pm UTC

The filters are gone! Hurray! Hahaha and now all the quoted parts look silly.

If BF was scum, he would have absolutely zero incentive to attack anyone last night. There would be four possibilities from his scum-perspective.
1. MN saves tracker, BF attacks tracker.
2. MN saves other slyth, BF attacks tracker.
3. MN saves tracker, BF attacks other slyth.
4. MN saves other slyth, BF attacks other slyth.

For #1 and #4, BF doesn't know if tracker tracked him. He'd have to counterclaim doctor because if he doesn't and tracker tracked him, then we'd know he was scum.

#2 is best case scenario for him, but it still leaves him with a 50/50 chance of being lynched.

#3 is worst case scenario for him, there's a 100% chance of being lynched.

But anyways, more to the point, we are in #1 and BF did not claim doctor so we can be almost positive that someone withheld the kill. Otherwise BF got really lucky that mpolo didn't track him, because that would have done him in. And I think a scum-MN would have submitted a kill rather than withholding it, so BF looks worse than MN because of the lack of kill last night.

And BF hasn't done himself any favors today. NL is clearly the optimal town play, and he dismisses it because "we're down to a 50/50 here either way". But that's wrong from the perspective he claims to have. If there's even the slightest chance that I'm scum, there's a decent chance I'd be found out by mpolo with an extra night. Also, FAOT and MN have been trying to get the other one lynched throughout much of the entire game. Two huffle scum would loooove to get the doctor power all to themselves - they could false-claim who they doctored to their heart's content. That outweighs the benefits of distancing/bussing, IMO.

I'm pretty sure of this, and I'm willing to end it now because otherwise we're in an endless cycle of NL and no NK, so:

Vote: Boomfrog
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Tue Mar 13, 2012 9:37 pm UTC

Well this has been going on long enough. For better or for worse, I'm following my homie.

Vote: BoomFrog
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Adam H » Tue Mar 13, 2012 9:54 pm UTC

It's over? It's over!!! Pretty sure we got the right guy... mpolo's not gloating so that's good, I guess.

GG, all.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Lataro » Tue Mar 13, 2012 9:55 pm UTC

Boom frog has been lynched

He was scum

Town wins

iPhone posts win

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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:15 pm UTC

So what evil powers did the horrible conspiracy people have, anyway?

I had so many wrong guesses in this game, it was quite depressing. At least I finally voted for the right person in the end.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Mostlynormal » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:57 pm UTC

According to the spoilers, it was power switching after all that caused night one! I didn't even want to consider that. I guess it all worked out in the end. Scum played a very good game, though I think they got super lucky with the wine spilled night 1 and the tie in the votals on day I can't remember. It's kind of disturbing to know that I was talking to scum the entire time in housechat. Also good play Boomfrog giving me the doctor, it was so sudden and unexpected that I doubted myself for a moment. But I think trying to cast doubt on Adam ended up getting you lynched, at the end you came across alot as just trying to survive.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:57 am UTC

Damn. So mpolo: would you have hammered MN if I had voted for him D5 (the second to last day)?

Mostlynormal wrote:Also good play Boomfrog giving me the doctor, it was so sudden and unexpected that I doubted myself for a moment. But I think trying to cast doubt on Adam ended up getting you lynched, at the end you came across alot as just trying to survive.

I didn't really want to spread suspicion on AdamH but I was just trying to avoid looking 100% sure.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby mpolo » Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:23 am UTC

I was probably always going to vote for one of roband and FAOT at that point, though MostlyNormal was pushing buttons on me left and right throughout that day. I didn't want to believe that he was town (which made it easy to convince me to unvote and at least think about it). But Adam's reasoning was the same as mine, and seemed sound. Especially the point about you saying NL and lynching someone were exactly the same. It's like the only accepted NL moment around here when there are four left…
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:48 am UTC

But, I.. grrr. Yeah, I guess I "thought through" the scenario too fast, since I had actually thought it through the night before. Damn. But if we did NL then scum would have withheld again, because scum is screwed if they try to kill and don't kill the tracker. Oh well. Good game everyone.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby t1mm01994 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:22 am UTC

Night 1 went pretty much as expected, to be fair.. I was the redirector, all powers used on me were used on fearless instead, and vice versa. It really was planned that either I got blocked, or fearless would end up with a scum result.. It was obvious /some/ powers were going to get used on either of us, and they all would get the wrong result... *tee hee* but yeah, gg town
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby ForAllOfThis » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:35 pm UTC

We had a one shot bus driver. I was almost certain that fearless was going to be targetted by something N1 with the wine spilled, I was hoping a cop or tracker though. We had tim carry out the kill so if they were tracked it would look like fearless carried out the kill as well. With Lataro outting his entire house, we knew who was in each house N1 which was also useful. To be honest, I was hoping you wouldnt lynch a confirmed townie after just lynching one by mistake. Oh well, I'm pleased with my overall game. Got roband lynched and he was confirmed town (small victory!). I didn't want to take the kill the night I got blocked but chan insisted because she was active lurking badly, so next time I'm in that situation I'll insist in a no kill rather than risk taking it myself.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:17 pm UTC

Wut? No kill would have gotten you in the same ammount of trouble.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Adam H » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:38 pm UTC

The big reason I picked BF was because MN and FAOT were trying to get each other lynched back when scum did not want to be bussing (1 scum and 6 town is a pretty easy town win with the powers we had). Everything else was more or less just me fitting the facts to the theory, though I was starting to convince myself... And now that we're proven right I can pretend we're geniouses! When mpolo called me his homie it practically brought tears to my eyes, btw.

The only question left is: who won the house points?? I think slyth might have a shot! That was one of the main reasons I lynched roband. :D
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby fearless » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:52 pm UTC

Good job town :) And thanks AZ for believing me!!
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby roband » Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:59 am UTC

Sorry fearless and Az. But I was right about FAOT, so that's something.
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby t1mm01994 » Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:09 am UTC

I honestly don't know what you were doing there, roband. You just started doing all sorts of random stuff.. While all that was against you was the D1 roleblock wine. Perhaps I should have not let you take all of the roleblocks.. Dammit GL, why did you not object?
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby roband » Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:17 am UTC

Well, it's a newbie game - I did not expect a busdriver role.

Therefore, I was certain fearless carried out the kill...
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby greenlover » Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:16 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:Dammit GL, why did you not object?

Mostly because I trusted Roband over you, and knew the chances of me getting the roleblock were pretty low. :P
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Adam H » Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:50 pm UTC

The spoilers for this game were especially fun to read...
BoomFrog wrote:Hogwarts
Spoiler:
Adam H wrote:I'll vote BF if both MN and FAOT change their votes to BF.

Otherwise I'll flip a coin (or wait for BF and mpolo to hammer).
A fine specimen of AdamH thinking he is clever.
This made me laugh so hard. I AM clever, JERKFACE! :D

Lataro: sorry for getting the bandwagon rolling on you D1. Your spoilers make me feel guilty. But... we had to lynch someone. Anyways, thanks for finishing up the game as mod for us!

I hope GoP is OK...
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Re: Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

Postby Azrael001 » Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:00 pm UTC

I am still mad about getting our whole house outed on day one, but I'm glad that you stepped up and took over the game for everyone.

I was aiming for a Ravenclaw win as well as town, which made me more inclined to vote Gryffindor while they were winning.
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