xkcd

by **Silknor** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:09 pm UTC

At this point Roband summons more of my suspicions than any other player. Yes, this is principally about encouraging townies to attack a survivor (no matter how he may twist what he said in future posts). It's a rookie mistake, one he should not make as town. Hence I conclude there is a notably elevated chance that he is Scum/SK.

Vote: Roband

As for others' debate over stubborn continuation of lynching versus total revaluation, I see no need to draw a general principle now. It is obvious that if we face an absence of new information, we would continue by re-lynching Day 1's target. It is just as obvious that there will be some new information: night actions which generate morning news post mentions, claims of results from night abilities, and how people act tomorrow. Inertia is a powerful force in games where a single lynch does not assure death, and for good reason: if we lynch A day 1, and on day 2 B is ever so slightly more scummy but we face an overall dearth of information, re-lynching A gives a significantly higher chance of new information, which is almost always pro-town. But in truth, it's very unlikely we'll be in this situation. Votes and impressions swing rapidly in any first real day (e.g. before any deaths), and so when our Sun sets on Day 2, we will not likely be in that situation of a new candidate being on aggregate only slightly more suspicious than Day 1's lynch target.

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:22 pm UTC

That vote doesn't surprise me one bit. I had Silknor pegged as survivor, incidentally.
Unsure why - I seem to be believing my gut much more than usual these days.

I maintain that we need to be aware of the survivor. They will follow the majority, and maintain no alliance to any alignment which loses its majority.

by **mpolo** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:51 pm UTC

I'm really not understanding roband. He pegs Silknor as independent, but the Collector would not have the Groucho, as it is known that someone (namely I) bid for that power. Which would logically imply that roband thinks Silknor is the vampire. Then why didn't he switch his vote? He's also playing the "confused" card a lot here, which I only recall vividly in the Resistance game where we used his "confusion" to get a perfect Spies win. Which is looking pretty scummy.

conman is easily the lurkiest player around. He doesn't have any posts at all in my "Topic Review" window here. That makes him look somewhat scummy.

BoomFrog (once the row with ChickenFish calmed down so that I could keep up with reading) has seemed aggressive, but reasonable. Town lean.

Matt made a dubious post about what he bid on. It might just be wine (which is usually more a scum move), or the truth (in which case it endangers our power roles). I'm not convinced that he's worth lynching on that basis, though. A good portion of his posts deal with mechanics. neutral for now

t1mm's vote seems a little misguided. Voting a claimed townie for making an ill-advised claim is a little bit too much "tough love" for me. I'd need more evidence of wrongdoing on matt96's part to buy this vote. Still probably neutral-towny lean.

Mostlynormal has backed down off of his hyper-lynch-em-till-they-die strategy, so goes back to neutralish.

Chickenfish was on the right side of the lynch-em-till-they-die argument. I still haven't worked through the Wall, though. Leaving him neutral.

Silknor has been present, but not a whole lot of content (reasons provided). I've tended to agree with what he's posted, though, so I'm going to give a slight town lean here.

There are a few more, but I have some other stuff to do…

Vote: roband

since he was the scummiest in this quick overview,

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:56 pm UTC

I should be trying harder to not get lynched, but now is not a good time for me. I apologise.

I've left it too late to try and look into other's scumminess, unfortunately.

My picks for scum are MN, Tim and Silknor.

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:03 pm UTC

You know what, full honesty time...

I massively overbid for the powers I won. This lynch is likely going to kill me.
I messed up. I apologise.

by **t1mm01994** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:07 pm UTC

The sad thing with pressure votes: If you list them as pressure votes, people know there is no threat and will ignore them, if you don't list them as pressure votes people will think you're scummy because you're lynching the lurker.
Unvote, again.
The thing is, we've got 3 players having claimed to not be Cop/Doc, so for scum it's 1 in 2 to hit a power. That's not very nice now, is it?
But yeah, let's see. Who'd want to spend a lot of energy on powers, without caring too much... Probably something that can gain energy back.
What is something that can gain energy back? Not anything amongst town roles.
Vote: roband
and I can be held fully accountable for this one.

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:09 pm UTC

And of course, if I were not a town role, I'd share the fact with you.. right?

C'mon, think with your logic Tim, not your scumbrain. Making up a naff reason to vote is worse than saying "I'm going to lynch to ensure we get the full possible damage".

by **t1mm01994** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:12 pm UTC

Unvote
That post actually made sense, unlike mine. I'd honestly love some ITWN results, but they're not in until D2.. I've got some nice plans for those.
In that case, I'll vote for who I deem to be the survivor;
Vote: Mostlynormal

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:14 pm UTC

So you admit to thinking with your scumbrain?

Of course you won't, but I suspect I'm right.

If anyone else is listening, I will change my vote to Tim, if preferred. He's now bandwagonning the person I'm voting for to try and get me to back down? Perhaps.

by **t1mm01994** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:20 pm UTC

I'm barely thinking at all... Just finished my test, and going to sleep soon, and after that I likely won't be near enough a PC to vote before deadline. I had to pump out a quick vote because votes give huge amounts of information to town.

by **Lataro** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:12 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:If only we had someone to ask to clarify the rules...

is the Ancient Vampire "Scum"? Is the lonely collector?

If the holder of Super Sayan Mode posts, "RaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH" is activating the power still optional?

@Matt: I gave some specific quotes that you could have given an opinion on. There is plenty to talk about. Who do you think is scummy?

The vampire is scum, the collector is neutral, and is neither town nor scum.

Once the activator is posted, the power is used if possessed.

by **mpolo** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:43 pm UTC

This last exchange between t1mm and roband has reduced my certainty about roband's anti-towniness quite a bit. I suppose that means I had better change to my second choice before it's too late:

Vote: ConMan

by **mpolo** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:44 pm UTC

EBWOP: In case we're standing on formalities:

Unvote
Vote: ConMan

by **fearless** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:51 pm UTC

So, that idea that MN pitched... I guess I can see his point - but doing so also means that whatever power that person has will be gone. Whereas if we go for different people then at least they can still use their power to our advantage.

Rob... I don't feel is scummy. Just confused, like me. So I totally get him. I mean, this game has so many powers, it's understandable that some of us will get confused.

Boomfrog's vote on conman seems odd, because conman has always come across as town to me. And he used his supersayan power... Hmm why so early? Maybe he's just being paranoid... because if I had that, I would only use it if I think I'm going to be NK. Which means that it is entirely possible that Boomfrog used it to throw us off track... that whole "It's a town power". Why? I mean, maybe the mafia bid for it just so it wouldn't land in a town's hand. IGMEOY

edit: Ok I see mpolo has changed his vote to conman too. Hmmm what has he done to warrant that? I better read over his posts again before I vote

by **matt96** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:13 pm UTC

I just read back over everything that has been said so far, and T1mm just seems scummy to me, for instance the whole thing about having energy increase,

t1mm01994 wrote:Mostlynormal: Is 4 "plenty" then? Of which 2 are /incredibly/ easy to point out, and only increase 7/mostly 5 per day? Wow.
No, I mean, obviously, my argument is completely invalid now. I cannot begin to describe how incredibly refuted it is.
But seriously, that finger ain't going nowhere.

but assuming the person in question who has demagogue is town and is not idiotically self voting, there is a 4/10 chance of them hitting scum (Lataro clarified as mafia or AV) and going up by 20 energy, if they also have lynch vampire, that could be up to 27 energy, more than enough to make them look like AV.

t1mm01994 wrote:Energy increases obviously aren't foolproof, but hey, if we someone go up a bracket 2 days in a row, that's enough argument for me to kill them..

see above

t1mm01994 wrote:Pssht... Lynching does not always kill you. As a matter of fact, it will usually deal around 50 energy damage.

are you forgetting about lynch vampire, there are 2 people with that ability, and they will probably try to make sure they are voting for the person who is lynched, as it deals the 10 extra damage anyways (assuming lynch targets refers to candidates for being lynched, or simply people with votes on them), but they only gain the 7 energy if their vote leads to a lynch, the most important part of that is the extra damage you failed to account for, it would be more like 70 or more damage from a single lynch.

t1mm01994 wrote:What is something that can gain energy back? Not anything amongst town roles.

did t1mm just completely forget about demagogue and lynch vampire again, and forget about investor which he had previously mentioned?

I also find his frequently switching votes for odd reasons scummy, so I have no choice but to

Vote: t1mm01994

by **mpolo** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:31 pm UTC

My Conman vote is above all for lurkiness. With the impending deadline, it was about the best I could do. I'm going to have to leave this here, as it is past my bedtime (especially after losing that hour to the clock change on Sunday…)

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:33 pm UTC

Any chance of some votals? I'd work it out myself but I have had 6 or so beers tonight and I don't quite know what's going on

by **Lataro** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:41 pm UTC

Votals:

roband - 2 - (Mostlynormal, Silknor)
ConMan - 3 - (TheMaskedGecko, Boomfrog, Mpolo)
Mostlynormal - 3 - (Chickenfish, roband, T1mm01994)
T1mm01994 - 1 - (matt96)

Six to lynch, deadline in about ~8 hours from now.

Ties are a NL

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:43 pm UTC

Cheers dude.

Ok guys, here's the haps. I will vote MN (as I am at the moment) or Tim.
If someone votes Tim before I go to bed (about... an hour) I will also switch. I think they're both scummy but Tim tips it for me - I think. Just.

I will keep an eye on the thread.

by **ConMan** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:23 pm UTC

At this point, I think I've finally learned how complicated this game is. I *was* online yesterday, and I *did* read the thread, and nothing made enough sense for me to comment on. About the only things I'm sure of are that the powers I won do very little (except for one that requires a lot more energy than I have), and I am almost certainly going to die quickly.

I think roband is horribly confused - probably about as much as me if not moreso - and he managed to spread his confusion to t1mm. I'm pretty sure that this confusion is genuine, though, so at the very least I think rob is town, and if t1mm is scum then he's now a very confused scum. Most people have posted something that's correct, and that probably helps everyone understand what's going on, but in the interest of picking someone to vote for I think that Silknor's post didn't actually add a huge amount of information that wasn't already there.

Vote: Silknor

by **roband** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:25 pm UTC

Update: Bed soon dudes, if you're changing your vote to Tim, do it sooooooooon

by **Mostlynormal** » Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:38 pm UTC

roband wrote:You know what, full honesty time...

I massively overbid for the powers I won. This lynch is likely going to kill me.
I messed up. I apologise.

I don't like this at all. It's screaming desperation to me. I beleive this was used untruthfully in GGL also (by an independent, admittedly) just because the person didn't wan't to be lynched. A healthy aversion to the rope is good for town and all but this doesn't look pro town at all.

I agree with matt that T1mm's ignoring energy gaining town powers throughout the game is really weird. Normally I wouldn't fin someone scummy just for disagreeing with me but T1mm's just been acting strange in general. He says he's got tests and stuff which could explain it but I hope to see more coherent content from him D2.

I'm not wholly opposed to the Conman lynch but I think we can do much better than a lurker D1. If no one changes their vote to roband I'm willing to pile on my vote (being the advocate of as much damage as possible and everything), but I'd rather lynch roband.

Ninja'd by Conman: Doesn't change my opinion much The Silknor vote is rather "safe." Still not opposed to the lynch, still rather lynch roband.

by **Chickenfish** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 12:03 am UTC

At work so this isn't going to be nearly as in depth as I'd like.
NL sucks:
Unvote
t1mm is indeed acting very strangely - any input he's given that has any chance to further discussion seems to have faulty logic, and omitting details even when they're pointed out. As has also been pointed out, his votes seem very opportunistic.
Vote: t1mm

by **roband** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 12:07 am UTC

Damn, I am literally falling asleep here...

Unvote
Vote: Tim

Good timing fickenchish.

by **Lataro** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 12:22 am UTC

Votals:

roband - 2 - (Mostlynormal, Silknor)
ConMan - 3 - (TheMaskedGecko, Boomfrog, Mpolo)
Mostlynormal - 1 - (T1mm01994)
T1mm01994 - 3 - (matt96, Chickenfish, roband)
Silknor - 1 - (ConMan)

Six to lynch, deadline in about ~5.5 hours from now.

Ties are a NL

by **Chickenfish** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:27 am UTC

Ugh, so we're at NL again. If votes haven't changed I'll be unvoting before deadline. Not particularly on board with the ConMan hate, but I think a lynch is more important than the 2 damage my vote will do to t1mm...

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:12 am UTC

t1mm is looking pretty scummy, but I'm wary that this last minute rush is scum trying to push the lynch off their scummate. If conman wasn't mafia I think we'd have a bigger pile-on on him, so I'm feeling pretty good about lynching him.

I'll do a bit of a reread to see if I change my mind.

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:25 am UTC

fearless wrote:And [BoomFrog] used his supersayan power... Hmm why so early? Maybe he's just being paranoid... because if I had that, I would only use it if I think I'm going to be NK. Which means that it is entirely possible that Boomfrog used it to throw us off track... that whole "It's a town power". Why? I mean, maybe the mafia bid for it just so it wouldn't land in a town's hand. IGMEOY

I didn't think I was commiting to using the power when I posted my rawr! I just thought that it gave me the ability to use SSM if I wanted to that night. Also, I'm not saying I actually have SSM I just don't want scum to know who does or does not have it. So we should each rawr! once during the game when we have a night we feel that we don't want scum to use their NK on us.

The reason it's a townie power is that scum don't get that much benefit from it. The chance that scum is hit by a damaging power at night is a LOT lower then it is for town. So being immune to night damage is something a lot more helpful to town then scum. If scum have it I'm wasting my time, but I'm not really helping them. If town has the power then I AM helping town.

by **ConMan** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:50 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:t1mm is looking pretty scummy, but I'm wary that this last minute rush is scum trying to push the lynch off their scummate. If conman wasn't mafia I think we'd have a bigger pile-on on him, so I'm feeling pretty good about lynching him.

I'll do a bit of a reread to see if I change my mind.

...

So you think that *because* people aren't thinking I'm massively scummy, that I *am* massively scummy? That's a FoS from me, and if I somehow survive the day I strongly suspect I'll be turning that into a vote.

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:56 am UTC

Alright, apparently "reread" actually means stare at the vtotals like a stock analyst trying to predict the market from raw date.

I can only assume all of the current votes are quite serious and don't have any mafia voting for other mafia because it is very possible for lynch to go in any direction at this point. (CF's vote may be an exception as he is also quite active during this timeslot.)

So to sort into Mafia and non-mafia first some assumptions: (note AV and LC are included in non-mafia)
I, Roband, Fearless, CF and TMG are non-mafia. That leaves Silknor, Matt, Conman, t1mm, mpolo, and Mostlynormal.

If t1mm is mafia then matt and MN are non-mafia, then 2 of Silknor, Conman, and mpolo are mafia. Mpolo and Conman cannot both be mafia so Silknor is defiantly mafia. Then Conman is not-mafia, then Mpolo is mafia.

If Conman is mafia then Mpolo and silknor are non-mafia. Then 2 of t1mm, MN, Matt are mafia. t1mm and MN are not both mafia therefore Matt is defiantly mafia. Therefore t1mm is non-mafia, therefore MostlyNormal is Mafia.

If Conman and t1mm are non-mafia then 3 of Silknor, Matt, mpolo and MN are mafia.

So t1mm-Silknor, Mpolo, or Conman-Matt-MostlyNormal, or we suck at lynching and it's 3 out of Silknor-Matt-mpolo-MN.

Okay that really didn't help too much for today but it could be useful later so I'm leaving it out there.

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:00 am UTC

ConMan wrote:So you think that *because* people aren't thinking I'm massively scummy, that I *am* massively scummy? That's a FoS from me, and if I somehow survive the day I strongly suspect I'll be turning that into a vote.

When three people vote for you but then there ISN'T a bandwagon that is unusual and suspicious, yes. Either you are mafia and t1mm isn't or you are both non-mafia and scum is happy to act like wishy-washy town.

You are either very naive town or slightly naive scum, I'm trying to decide which.

by **Chickenfish** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:01 am UTC

ConMan wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:t1mm is looking pretty scummy, but I'm wary that this last minute rush is scum trying to push the lynch off their scummate. If conman wasn't mafia I think we'd have a bigger pile-on on him, so I'm feeling pretty good about lynching him.

I'll do a bit of a reread to see if I change my mind.

...

So you think that *because* people aren't thinking I'm massively scummy, that I *am* massively scummy? That's a FoS from me, and if I somehow survive the day I strongly suspect I'll be turning that into a vote.

ConMan, it makes sense that your scum buddies wouldn't risk putting a tie-breaker vote on you when they can get away with not voting/leaving their votes where they are. With us being this close to deadline and you not committing to a vote, that pings me as scummy. Coupled with the fact you could put a survival vote on t1mm, that looks much more like scum being very careful about how their votes are perceived, and/or not wanting to put the tiebreaker on your buddy t1mm.
With that one post you've changed my mind, so to avoid the NL we're approaching,
Unvote, Vote:ConMan

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:05 am UTC

There's extremely little chance that BOTH conman and t1mm are mafia. As I worked out above mafia would have to already be voting their scumbuddies for t1mm and conman to both be mafia.

by **matt96** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:25 am UTC

I feel like a no lynch is one of the worst possible things for town in a game like this, especially since there is a power that can be used like a cop on the person being lynched, I think I just recently saw Conman online (it had the online banner on his profile image) and if Conman switches his vote to t1mm, then there would only be a difference of one vote, a small enough margin for the secret vote to tie it up causing a no lynch, which I have already said is bad, also I am tired and want to sleep, the only viable option for me right now is to
Unvote
Vote: ConMan
I also think it is better to deal five damage to the second scummiest person (In my opinion) than 2 damage to the scummiest.

by **matt96** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:27 am UTC

Ebwop
I'll try to stay on for a few more minutes just in case we can get everyone currently online to vote for t1mm.

by **Chickenfish** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:27 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:There's extremely little chance that BOTH conman and t1mm are mafia. As I worked out above mafia would have to already be voting their scumbuddies for t1mm and conman to both be mafia.

Your post made a few leaps of logic I didn't follow. I think it's highly possible t1mm didn't want to break the tie between himself and ConMan and already had a convenient vote. Moreso, though, ConMan not placing a survival vote has me highly suspicious. Happy to be proven wrong, but I wouldn't rule it out that easily

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:29 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:When three people vote for you but then there ISN'T a bandwagon that is unusual and suspicious, yes. Either you are mafia and t1mm isn't or you are both non-mafia and scum is happy to act like wishy-washy town.

Ahhhhhhhh! *headexplode*

Are they scum trying to mess with me or just townies taking the pile on the hammer suggestion to heart...

Ninja'd by Matt... errgh. Give me five minutes to think.

by **BoomFrog** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:34 am UTC

Chickenfish wrote:Your post made a few leaps of logic I didn't follow. I think it's highly possible t1mm didn't want to break the tie between himself and ConMan and already had a convenient vote. Moreso, though, ConMan not placing a survival vote has me highly suspicious. Happy to be proven wrong, but I wouldn't rule it out that easily

If scum have the vote rigger then a near tie or tie is good for them. If they don't have the vote rigger then a tie or near tie will always be broken since all the non-mafia like a lynch as long as it isn't on them. I guess a conman-t1mm team that has voterigger is possible but as we've seen it's risky as we are now piling on one of them.

Okay, I decided I think t1mm-silknor-mpolo is more likely then conman-matt-MN

Unvote
Vote t1mm

by **Chickenfish** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:36 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:When three people vote for you but then there ISN'T a bandwagon that is unusual and suspicious, yes. Either you are mafia and t1mm isn't or you are both non-mafia and scum is happy to act like wishy-washy town.

Ahhhhhhhh! *headexplode*

Are they scum trying to mess with me or just townies taking the pile on the hammer suggestion to heart...

Ninja'd by Matt... errgh. Give me five minutes to think.

Is this in reference to me? I'm happy with a ConMan or t1mm lunch as I think they're both scum, but without knowing matt was online the only way I personally could dodge the NL is voting ConMan. Don't distrust your initial logic re lack of wagon - the wagon only formed because your case was sound (case towards ConMan... still think they're both scum)

by **matt96** » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:38 am UTC

Now that BoomFrog is in agreement I too will
Unvote
Vote: t1mm01994

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