I've been thinking about this for the past few days now, and whatever formula I come up with always fails after a relatively low number. The problem is this:
A button has a 1 in 100 chance of sounding a siren, independent from any other presses. k pigeons are lined in a row, with a button in front of each. All buttons are pressed by the pigeons simultaneously at once per second. When the siren sounds, all pigons will fly away and the buttons will be no longer pressed. After n seconds, what is the chance the pigeons will be still there?
Is there a formula to solve the problem? This is not homework, It has just been bothering me immensely ever since it popped into my mind.
Pigeon Probability Problem
Moderators: gmalivuk, Moderators General, Prelates
Pigeon Probability Problem
I edit an unreasonable amount of times.
Re: Pigeon Probability Problem
(0.99)^(k.n) ?
Re: Pigeon Probability Problem
Lets see...
I would think that k pigeons pushing the button at the same time is equivalent to 1 pigeon pushing the button k times in a row (in under 1 second), unless theres some detail I'm forgetting. That would mean...
This goes along with the result zmic gave, so it seems like it works.
I would think that k pigeons pushing the button at the same time is equivalent to 1 pigeon pushing the button k times in a row (in under 1 second), unless theres some detail I'm forgetting. That would mean...
Spoiler:
This goes along with the result zmic gave, so it seems like it works.

 Posts: 1
 Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 3:56 am UTC
Re: Pigeon Probability Problem
(.99^k)^n=.99^(kn)
Above posters are correct.
Above posters are correct.
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