Whomever is the cop tonight (most likely me), is the cop because they're the towniest player in the Birds. There's little sense in investigating me tomorrow, because it will most likely just get me NK'd. I don't see why you'd want your towniest player NK'd. We should each day evaluate who the towniest Bird is and who the scummiest player is (or the second scummiest if we decide the lynch the scummiest) and then let that be the cop/copped combination. I'm pretty sure that there's no way we'll ever be certain that our cop is town (unless we kill all the scum) so we should just pick the towniest player as cop, the scummiest player as scum, and hope for the best.
Whether going to the Bears tomorrow is advantageous is impossible to tell until tomorrow. We could be at 8/2 tomorrow where I think the strategy of NL'ing and splitting 5 apiece into Bird/Turtle would definitely be best. We could also be at 7/3 where even with a NL, forming Bird/Turtle might not be a good idea.
I'm guessing the scum team is you/Misnomer/mpolo so I'd put the odds of there being at least 1 scum remaining after lynching you around 70%.
You are scum, and you're just trying to make this more confusing than it needs to be.
In your plan, we have a good chance of losing our cop result without learning any information about the Turtles (because we won't be able to tell the difference between the Turtles being scum or the scum just guessing correctly who to kill).
In the normal plan (of protecting the cop), if the Turtles protect the cop, then the cop will survive with results to tell. If the Turtles don't protect the cop, there's at least 2 scum in the Turtle party.
If anyone (besides Adam) seriously thinks Adam H's plan is a good idea, please tell me, and I'll post a full-blown analysis of why it isn't.
However, if you think his plan is similar to the ones he posted such as this:
Adam H wrote: ahammel wrote:
Adam H wrote:Well, the only possible solution would be to do a 4-4-4 with 1 player picking randomly between all three, but that's probably just wine-fuel more than anything.
4+4+4+1 > 12
So it is.
Adam H wrote:I'm so sure that 4.5-4.5-3 bird-turtle-bear is by far the best strategy, I'm about 24 hours from switching to bear just to get this thing rolling. I think dinking around like we've been doing is gonna hurt us, so I think that if you want to form and dissolve bear, just do it. Everyone who disagrees will thank us later...
Please vote to lynch him.