[M] Political Parties Mafia: CNN projects: MAFIA WINS!

[JesseScottOwen]

We can't trust what we get from the investigation - our cop may be scum. We can trust the results of a lynch, and try and figure stuff out from there.

I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone this game who thinks Snark is scum. I believe we can trust investigation results.

[Angua]

We can always be wrong. It's only d1.

[JesseScottOwen]

Well, here's where I stand. I'm suspicious of both Adam H and Webby. But, like you said, it's Day 1, and we can't be sure of anything. I'm still back and forth between Lynch and No Lynch. But no matter what, we ARE going to get an investigation, which will very likely result in a death. So:

D1 Lynch + Investigation + Mafia NK = A heck of a lot of dead players.

Thoughts?

[wam]

Well, here's where I stand. I'm suspicious of both Adam H and Webby. But, like you said, it's Day 1, and we can't be sure of anything. I'm still back and forth between Lynch and No Lynch. But no matter what, we ARE going to get an investigation, which will very likely result in a death. So:

D1 Lynch + Investigation + Mafia NK = A heck of a lot of dead players.

Thoughts?

Well the investigation will only result in death if the mafia NK that person, so its only two deaths not three.

[greenlover]

Here's an idea. Why not have the person receiving the results be investigated the next night? So we have snark investigate webby, and then we have a different player investigate snark the next night. Then, we have a forth player investigate the third player. If we keep that up long enough, we should be able to gain either a scum result on one of the cops, or conformation that all the cop results are true (assuming that this train is allowed to go on for more nights than there are scum.) The only problem I can see with this is that it might take more nights than we have to lynch to reach the point of where we can either absolutely trust the investigation, but even then its highly unlikely that all three players we select as cops would be scum, so it's still worth thought. Thoughts?

[JesseScottOwen]

Or if we lynch them after the investigation results. But that would be tomorrow's lynch.. Hmm.

Someone might have already suggested this, bu why don't we do Turtle + Bird + Lynch, and then all move to Bear tomorrow? Two town controlled kills to every Mafia NK seems like good odds. Unless I'm being stupid. This strategy stuff confuses the crap out of me.

Ninja'd: Greenlover's plan seems valid.

[Adam H]

Greenlover: that's fine to start out with, but by tomorrow that plan may not make sense. So don't get stuck on it.

If I (or one of the other turtles) get lynched, it makes sense for turtle to pick between cop and coppee and keep their target a secret. There's a pretty low chance that one of two turtles is scum. And if scum does successfully kill either the cop or coppee, then it's almost certain that one of the turtles is scum (it would be a disaster for scum to fail at killing, because then we get three confirmed towns: the two turtles plus the one saved player (though scum might withhold their kill because of this. yay for wine).

[Snark]

@greenlover
Whomever is the cop tonight (most likely me), is the cop because they're the towniest player in the Birds. There's little sense in investigating me tomorrow, because it will most likely just get me NK'd. I don't see why you'd want your towniest player NK'd. We should each day evaluate who the towniest Bird is and who the scummiest player is (or the second scummiest if we decide the lynch the scummiest) and then let that be the cop/copped combination. I'm pretty sure that there's no way we'll ever be certain that our cop is town (unless we kill all the scum) so we should just pick the towniest player as cop, the scummiest player as scum, and hope for the best.

@JesseScottOwen
Whether going to the Bears tomorrow is advantageous is impossible to tell until tomorrow. We could be at 8/2 tomorrow where I think the strategy of NL'ing and splitting 5 apiece into Bird/Turtle would definitely be best. We could also be at 7/3 where even with a NL, forming Bird/Turtle might not be a good idea.

@Adam H
I'm guessing the scum team is you/Misnomer/mpolo so I'd put the odds of there being at least 1 scum remaining after lynching you around 70%.
You are scum, and you're just trying to make this more confusing than it needs to be.
In your plan, we have a good chance of losing our cop result without learning any information about the Turtles (because we won't be able to tell the difference between the Turtles being scum or the scum just guessing correctly who to kill).
In the normal plan (of protecting the cop), if the Turtles protect the cop, then the cop will survive with results to tell. If the Turtles don't protect the cop, there's at least 2 scum in the Turtle party.

If anyone (besides Adam) seriously thinks Adam H's plan is a good idea, please tell me, and I'll post a full-blown analysis of why it isn't.

However, if you think his plan is similar to the ones he posted such as this:

Well, the only possible solution would be to do a 4-4-4 with 1 player picking randomly between all three, but that's probably just wine-fuel more than anything.

4+4+4+1 > 12

So it is.

And this:

I'm so sure that 4.5-4.5-3 bird-turtle-bear is by far the best strategy, I'm about 24 hours from switching to bear just to get this thing rolling. I think dinking around like we've been doing is gonna hurt us, so I think that if you want to form and dissolve bear, just do it. Everyone who disagrees will thank us later...

Please vote to lynch him.

[greenlover]

Whomever is the cop tonight (most likely me), is the cop because they're the towniest player in the Birds. There's little sense in investigating me tomorrow, because it will most likely just get me NK'd. I don't see why you'd want your towniest player NK'd. We should each day evaluate who the towniest Bird is and who the scummiest player is (or the second scummiest if we decide the lynch the scummiest) and then let that be the cop/copped combination. I'm pretty sure that there's no way we'll ever be certain that our cop is town (unless we kill all the scum) so we should just pick the towniest player as cop, the scummiest player as scum, and hope for the best.

If you really are the towniest player, aren't you going to be nk'ed anyway? At least this way, there won't be any wine remaining regarding your alignment if you survive the night.

Furthermore, however, you do provide a good justification to not pick the towniest player to carry out the investigation every night. Perhaps we should select someone who's more in the middle to carry out the investigations? That way, either the towniest looking players will survive the night, or we will gain a near confirmation of a player who lands more in the middle between town and scum. Seems like the town wins regardless of the scum's choice of nk.

[JesseScottOwen]

If you really are the towniest player, aren't you going to be nk'ed anyway? At least this way, there won't be any wine remaining regarding your alignment if you survive the night.

Um, not if the Turtles protect him!

[Snark]

Whomever is the cop tonight (most likely me), is the cop because they're the towniest player in the Birds. There's little sense in investigating me tomorrow, because it will most likely just get me NK'd. I don't see why you'd want your towniest player NK'd. We should each day evaluate who the towniest Bird is and who the scummiest player is (or the second scummiest if we decide the lynch the scummiest) and then let that be the cop/copped combination. I'm pretty sure that there's no way we'll ever be certain that our cop is town (unless we kill all the scum) so we should just pick the towniest player as cop, the scummiest player as scum, and hope for the best.

If you really are the towniest player, aren't you going to be nk'ed anyway? At least this way, there won't be any wine remaining regarding your alignment if you survive the night.

I won't get NK'd if I have the Turtle's protection.

Perhaps we should select someone who's more in the middle to carry out the investigations? That way, either the towniest looking players will survive the night, or we will gain a near confirmation of a player who lands more in the middle between town and scum. Seems like the town wins regardless of the scum's choice of nk.

Cop results in no way confirm the alignment of the cop. A scum cop can simply choose to always tell the truth about the investigation. If they did that, there'd be no way to use the investigation results as a measure of how townie/scummy the cop is.

The best thing to do is choose the towniest player every day, have the cop protect them, and wait for the result. We want townie players to survive the night. We shouldn't give the investigation results to someone neutral.

[Adam H]

In your plan, we have a good chance of losing our cop result without learning any information about the Turtles (because we won't be able to tell the difference between the Turtles being scum or the scum just guessing correctly who to kill).

And with your plan, turtle says they are going to save cop, then saves cop. Cop saves coppee. Scum kills coppee. We learn nothing, other than the NK victim is town. Whoopdidoo.

Whereas with the plan that you immediately dismissed, if the cop dies, we learn that either scum is in turtle OR scum was willing to risk getting 3 confirmed towns AND no NK AND a cop result JUST so we don't find out the cop investigation result.

I guarentee you that scum is happy with the status quo. The townies in this game are being really dumb.

[greenlover]

I won't get NK'd if I have the Turtle's protection.

My apologies. I was referring to tomorrow night. Unless tomorrow you plan on not having the cop being protected?

Cop results in no way confirm the alignment of the cop. A scum cop can simply choose to always tell the truth about the investigation. If they did that, there'd be no way to use the investigation results as a measure of how townie/scummy the cop is.

Exactly. Hence why picking the towniest player to conduct the copping every night is not going to really tell us anything about the alignment of that player. However, if we have that cop investigated the next night, then the alignment of that cop will be known to that player - and so on down the line.

Also, could you explain why its a bad idea to give cop results to a neutral player again? I'm sightly confused on that point.

[greenlover]

EBWOP: That second quote should be of snark, not myself. Sorry.

[Snark]

@greenlover

I have the opinion that protecting the cop is the best plan. I'd rather choose the towniest player as cop and let them survive the night, than choose a neutral person as cop and risk getting our towniest player killed.

Town want townie people to stay alive. Scum want to NK townie players cause they most likely aren't going to get lynched (which makes it more likely for the actual scum to get lynched)

[mpolo]

I am happy to have Snark get the result. (For what a turtle's opinion is worth.)

I don't like the No Lynch, though I can see a reasonable argument for it. Adam H I am not sure about. I went from really convinced he was town to being very much on the fence.

Question: Is Bird Chat lively? Over here in the Turtles, each of us has mailed one message… Two of us are pretty active here, but it strikes me as odd. Actually, that may be Adam's saving grace in my eyes at the moment, because he's not trying to "privately" sway us to his opinion outside of the thread -- he's playing "townie" -- open for all to see, even though I think his ideas are dangerously wrong. (Especially until he clarified his position.)

Webby is extremely cock-sure of his position, but I haven't seen it yet.

Maybe it was a mistake to form Turtle on N0 -- if we had formed Bear, we could be dismantling it now and not have this conversation about risking the existence of Turtle and Bird, which seem to be the most important parties for us as town.

[webby]

I am happy to have Snark get the result. (For what a turtle's opinion is worth.)

I don't like the No Lynch, though I can see a reasonable argument for it. Adam H I am not sure about. I went from really convinced he was town to being very much on the fence.

Question: Is Bird Chat lively? Over here in the Turtles, each of us has mailed one message… Two of us are pretty active here, but it strikes me as odd. Actually, that may be Adam's saving grace in my eyes at the moment, because he's not trying to "privately" sway us to his opinion outside of the thread -- he's playing "townie" -- open for all to see, even though I think his ideas are dangerously wrong. (Especially until he clarified his position.)

Webby is extremely cock-sure of his position, but I haven't seen it yet.

Maybe it was a mistake to form Turtle on N0 -- if we had formed Bear, we could be dismantling it now and not have this conversation about risking the existence of Turtle and Bird, which seem to be the most important parties for us as town.

Bird chat is effectively useless because we can be reasonably sure there's scum there. It hasn't been used at all. I believe that it is more likely than not that there are no scum in turtle, so it could be useful for you guys.

Examples of Adam H being town and looking scummy:
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=73700&start=40
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=74475 (not town, but his goal was to get lynched on day 3, not day 1)
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=75155&start=240 (killed by a town vig night 2)

I think there were more, but they're the ones I played, so they come to mind quickly.

Mpolo, who would you investigate if you were a bird?

[Krong]

Votals:
1 - wam (ahammel)
2 - webby (TheMaskedGecko, Misnomer)
4 - Adam H (Snark, JesseScottOwen, wam, Angua)
4 - No Lynch (webby, greenlover, Adam H, CaptainFinglass)

12 players alive, 7 to lynch
4 to lynch at deadline (Saturday, March 31st, at 10:00 PM Eastern Time)

I've sent out updated party action votals to all parties. Please PM me if you're in a party and didn't get one, or if they're incorrect.

[Adam H]

I have a sort of interesting thing we could talk about. Since a D1 lynch gives us so much info, let's talk about what conclusions you'll draw from lynching me and finding that I'm town. That way I can give input so that you'll have a wine-free take on it tomorrow.

Or, you know, you could spare my life.

[Snark]

@Adam H
I'll draw the conclusion that you've learned little from the 3 games that webby posted links to.

[JesseScottOwen]

Sigh... sorry to disappoint, but you're all about to look like dumbasses.

I have a sort of interesting thing we could talk about. Since a D1 lynch gives us so much info, let's talk about what conclusions you'll draw from lynching me and finding that I'm town. That way I can give input so that you'll have a wine-free take on it tomorrow.

Or, you know, you could spare my life.

God, he's persuasive.

[Adam H]

So you're stupid AND mean.

[mpolo]

I have a sort of interesting thing we could talk about. Since a D1 lynch gives us so much info, let's talk about what conclusions you'll draw from lynching me and finding that I'm town. That way I can give input so that you'll have a wine-free take on it tomorrow.

Or, you know, you could spare my life.

Well, the Day 1 information shows us that snark, JSO, wam, and Angua thought that you looked scummy. If you turn out town, there would normally be the suggestion that at least one of those people voting for you is scum. Of course, at present, I am uncertain about what your alignment is, so I can't 100% say that one of those four has to be scum -- but it would certainly draw my attention.

On the other hand, we have four people who are advocating the no-lynch. Depending on your alignment, those people are going to look at least marginally better or worse.

I see that I'm the only person who is wallowing in indecision at the moment. I guess I have to break the tie here. As much as I dislike his strategy, I am forced to concede that Adam has just made a very positive-spinning post in party chat. Which means:

Vote: No Lynch

[Misnomer]

Webby, care to point out where exactly you already addressed my concerns?

Unvote
Vote: Adam H

Any lynch is better than no lynch.

[wam]

Unofficial votals

1 - wam (ahammel)
1 - webby (TheMaskedGecko)
5 - Adam H (Snark, JesseScottOwen, wam, Angua, misnomer)
5 - No Lynch (webby, greenlover, Adam H, CaptainFinglass, mpolo)

What we have to be careful of here is that the bird party is currently invesitgating webby with results to snark, most of the votes for thi (including mine) were based on Adam H being lynched. If we end up no lynching several people, including me, will probably want to change to investigating adam H

[Snark]

I want all three of the Turtles to confirm that you're going to protect me. So far zero have.

If anyone hammers before at least two of the turtles have confirmed this, you're ultra scummy, and I'll probably be NK'd tonight making the cop result useless. If night falls before at least two of the turtles confirm this, I'll probably be NK'd.

If that happens, the Turtles have at least two scum. Or 1 scum and 1 town who voted, and one townie who was too busy to vote. Lynch the turtles.

If all turtles confirm they'll protect me, and it looks like it's gonna be a tie or majority no lynch, then I and webby may change our investigation target to Adam H. We should be careful to avoid any ties (in the Bird party action vote) though unless another Bird is online to break the tie.

TTFN.

[mpolo]

Adam and I have both sent in our vote to protect snark. The fact that Adam _reminded_ us all to send in our vote is what made me decide to go with his no_lynch.

[wam]

If all turtles confirm they'll protect me, and it looks like it's gonna be a tie or majority no lynch, then I and webby may change our investigation target to Adam H. We should be careful to avoid any ties (in the Bird party action vote) though unless another Bird is online to break the tie.

I should be online for most of today if this is needed and would be happy to change to investigate Adam H.

Mod it says in the instructions that we can vote on party actions during twilight, what are the time limitations on this?

[Krong]

Mod it says in the instructions that we can vote on party actions during twilight, what are the time limitations on this?

Twilight will last for 24 hours after I declare lynch. You won't be able to post in the main thread, but you can use party chat and vote for party actions during that time.

[Snark]

Well that changes things. I'll be changing my Bird Party action vote to Adam H if he doesn't get lynched. If he does, I'll use my Bird Party action vote on webby.

[CaptainFinglass]

The only thing that's making me suspicious of Adam H is the fact he has changed strategies multiple times, including "hating everyone who agrees" with the NL idea to becoming an advocate for NL. It seems a bit odd to me is all. That being said, I think most (not all) of his strategies make sense on the surface, but not sure how useful they will be at the end of the game. I don't think there is really enough to nail him though, at least, not that I've seen. So for now, my vote remains NL.

[Snark]

If all turtles confirm they'll protect me, and it looks like it's gonna be a tie or majority no lynch, then I and webby may change our investigation target to Adam H.

Should have said "I and wam" may change...

[Snark]

Has TMG been prodded?

Hasn't posted in about 5 days by my count. Would love for him to break this tie.

[Adam H]

There's a chance I won't be online tomorrow. FYI.

I want all three of the Turtles to confirm that you're going to protect me. So far zero have.

I can't see why a townie would care whether we tell you or not. Now, if there's no scum in turtle, the scum might be worried we're doing something crazy and saving webby (or me?) instead. Of course, we still might do that! You can never tell with us crazy turtles! To be safe, scum, you'd better just NK someone random - it's not worth the possibility of us successfully blocking you.

[Snark]

I assumed you'd protect the cop as it's the best strategy, and if I'm dead and you're alive tomorrow, I really hope that people have the sense to start lynching Turtles.

BUT you have a good point, so I'll change my statement to: I'd like all 3 of the Turtles to confirm that they've cast their vote for someone. It'd be bad for the deadline and twilight period to run out before TMG (the lurker) gets a chance to put in his vote.

[ahammel]

BUT you have a good point, so I'll change my statement to: I'd like all 3 of the Turtles to confirm that they've cast their vote for someone. It'd be bad for the deadline and twilight period to run out before TMG (the lurker) gets a chance to put in his vote.

It doesn't matter (unless there's a tie, in which case we start lynching Turtles for incompetence).

[Snark]

Does too matter.

What if Adam H is scum and is lynched tonight, and mpolo is town, and TMG is town, and webby is scum?

Adam will have nothing to lose and will vote to protect someone random and mpolo will probably vote to protect me. If TMG fails to vote, there will be a tie, and I won't get protected. Scum can then NK me with there being no assurance that webby is scum. Scum might just dislike me more than webby.

I know that's a buttload of whatif's, but it's possible so we should want all the Turtles to confirm placing a vote.

[Snark]

EBWOP: I think my logic above would still work if mpolo is scum.

[Krong]

Has TMG been prodded?

Oops, nope. I just sent one now.

Votals:
1 - wam (ahammel)
1 - webby (TheMaskedGecko)
5 - Adam H (Snark, JesseScottOwen, wam, Angua, Misnomer)
5 - No Lynch (webby, greenlover, Adam H, CaptainFinglass, mpolo)

12 players alive, 7 to lynch
4 to lynch at deadline (Saturday, March 31st, at 10:00 PM Eastern Time)

[Adam H]

Consider yourself confirmed: Mpolo and I cast our vote for the same person.

But that doesn't mean anything, because, as you say, if I was a soon-to-be lynched scum, I'd switch my vote right before I'm lynched. There's still no benefit to us confirming.