[L]Firefly Mafia - Game Over - Serenity Crew Wins

[Sungura]

Definitely a full-on Smithesque cult we are dealing with because of how many we have found AND they clearly keep their roles.

Also a quick "I told you so" because some of you keep wanting to not believe me for whatever reason *cough cough roband cough*

I need to go back and look at things because we clearly have at least one reaver left still but I need to figure out the numbers with the lylo possibilities <goes to look> - okay running quick here feel free to check my work.
Yesterday was 7 players with (at least) 2 reavers and possible lylo
Today is 5 players with (at least) 1 reaver and possible lylo
If we had 2 reavers now it *would* be lylo (3v2) so 1 reaver makes sense possible lylo because if we misslynch night starts with 3:1 and a recruit gives 2:2, so it would depend on a night kill going through/who it hit.

If yesterday we had 3 reavers, we would be in full lylo today, so that means we had 2 yesterday, and the recruit went through last night then so either mpolo was the recruit (like Adacore where the flavor suggested killed on the night of the recruit) OR mpolo was reaver and the order of processing let his recruit go through before dying. Now...there wasn't something in the flavor as with Adacore that suggests a same-night recruit, so I'm guessing mpolo did the recruiting. Speaking as a mod...for something like that I usually flip a coin to determine order of processing so in my mind that's not out of the question we have just last night's recruit to look for and then we should be good!

Im mostly worried about roband especially because I've proven myself right at this point and he's been very against me this whole time, but I will hold off voting until Az gets his results back.

Although now that we know mpolo WAS blocking Az, but since his invention finally went through last night so he wasn't blocked, Az would have been a good logical one to recruit to throw everything for a loop so I am slightly worried about that.

[Sungura]

Uhm...I hit submit and got this message into my inbox that said I HAD to post it immedietly:

With the reavers out of the way, we need to deal with the alliance, therefore we need to get rid of the person most likely to be alliance

Vote: Sungura

So...clearly one of our reavers has some sort of day-after vote ability. Yes, it came colored and bolded, so I'm assuming this anonymous vote counts.

[Misnomer]

With the reavers out of the way, we need to deal with the alliance, therefore we need to get rid of the person most likely to be alliance

Vote: Sungura

[Misnomer]

Eeep.

[Sungura]

WTF?!?!

So someone can make everyone use up their votes to vote for whoever the hell they want???

This is bullshit.

[Misnomer]

UNVOTE

Check with infina, immediate unvote is allowed.

[Sungura]

In case that is counting as my vote:

UNVOTE

[Misnomer]

EBWOP:

Unvote

[Sungura]

make it blue!!

[Sungura]

Ninja'd too fast for the ninjacatch lol

Yeah so...WTF.

[Misnomer]

Massive FoS: BoomFrog

This is looking pretty Mr Universe-y.

[BoomFrog]

With the reavers out of the way, we need to deal with the alliance, therefore we need to get rid of the person most likely to be alliance

Vote: Sungura

[BoomFrog]

Unvote

Yeah, this doesn't make much sense at all and it's kinda pointless if you can unvote right away.

Just finished a 14hour flight and haven't slept for 26 hours and jetlagged. Got a meeting tomorrow. I'll probably find some time to actually contribute something in about 24 hours.

[BoomFrog]

Unvote

Forgot bold.

[Azrael001]

With the reavers out of the way, we need to deal with the alliance, therefore we need to get rid of the person most likely to be alliance

Vote: Sungura

[Azrael001]

Unvote

In other news, Roband is not a Reaver. It's looking like this was likely a Mr Universe-esque power. With LYLO, it's certainly not a friendly power... I'm not going to vote Boom Frog yet, but only because it's lylo.

[Azrael001]

EBWOP: That is, I agree with Misnomer.

[roband]

With the reavers out of the way, we need to deal with the alliance, therefore we need to get rid of the person most likely to be alliance

Vote: Sungura

[roband]

Unvote

[BoomFrog]

Looks more like a poorly thought out invention to me. I'm pretty sure I wasn't at the top of anyone's lynch lists before this oddness came up. (Maybe Misnomers). So this oddness certainly isn't serving my purposes.

Yeay, for waking up at 4:30am!

[roband]

Fuck, post lost because I was logged out during the time it took to type it.

Boiled down to:

We are either at 3-2 or 2-1-1.

Az, you need to decide if you believe me when I say I am town, or not.
The others all want to lynch me because they know you are too obvi-town to vote for without looking scummy.
So, voting for me is the best and easiest way to them for create a mislynch so they win.

It would not surprise me if they were all anti-town in some way - I currently have no preference over who to lynch, other than not Az.

[Sungura]

roband being cleared of reaver-ness is good. Him coming up negative in an odd way makes me feel better about Az - I was worried that he would have made a good convert last night because he is generally well trusted - and then with that invention regardless of the answer could just say roband is reaver and we would have mostly believed him.

So...on my "good" list today:
Azrael - been solid throughout the game
Roband - clearly thinks extremely different from me (and az to some extent) so while I think is fine, I dont trust his logic much as so far he's been proven wrong time and again.

Which means I'm looking at BF or Misnomer as the reaver convert.

I dissagree with it being 3:2 because that WOULD be lylo (no lynch, reaver converts, reaver win), and it's only possibly lylo.

It has to be 4:1 town:reaver or 3:1:1 town:reaver:alliance for it to be possible lylo.

With there being 2 reavers for sure yesterday but yesterday only being possible lylo as well, if there were 3 reavers 4:3 town:reaver would have been lylo for sure, 5:2 would be possible lylo (same situation as today) and for those who still think an alliance is running around would've been 4:2:1 town:reaver:alliance which is still lylo for town not just possible lylo so therefore logically I do think what we had yesterday was 5:2 and the recruit was considered successful last night so we have 4:1 today.

As for this massive voting deal, whoever did it, did not clearly think anything through. For one, sending a message to everyone they have to say is quite powerful and for two putting a vote in it for a quicklynch makes it not only more powerful, but I think poorly thought out. My brain automatically went to a beyond-the-grave role type as I like having those in my own games and they often can send messages through others. I'm not sure it had to be the same thing said, I think perhaps it was just used in that manner. My brain went to the idea of a reaver did it because of course you'd want to get rid of the one person who keeps accuratly calling you out and getting folk to lynch you, it's a very powerful cult mechanic so without focus on them they would have easily won by now.

Roles I think make sense to have this sort of power:
1) Inventor - becuase of it being an invention. Problem: I dont think Az would have done something like that, the reaverbrainmri thingie makes more sense and being blocked other nights was confirmed by mpolo. Problem with the problem...if Az has been reaver all along and is in cahoots with them so was lying about the inability to invent, but this is paranoia talking I dont see signs of him having been a reaver for a while.
conclusion: likely not inventor (az)

2) Mr Universe - becuase of how he can make all brodcasts everywhere be the same thing. Problem: it makes no logical sense for bf to do something like that because he's already in a precarious spot, doing something to shine the spotlight on him like this is super dumb. Also, Mr Universe never forced anyone to *do* anything, it was mearly the idea that all people should have access to all data out there so the fact there was a coutable vote I think goes against the idea of Mr Universe. Mr Universe is more of a see-er, all knowing type person. Problem with the problem: wifom
conclusion: ...i hate wifom

3) River - can get into people's minds...with the ability to spoiler read possible in the game, that makes more sense as a mr universe character than River. The way River "makes" herself different objects and sees things makes more sense to be able to invade people's minds because she does time after time (basically) does that. It's what she was trained to do. As a govt project the ability to also plant ideas in other's brains is a logical followup of this I could easily see some sort of afterdeath role of this, and she was a reaver so this makes sense to attack me.
conclusion: I see this as more a River role than anything else, but from the start I thought of the possessions beyond-the-grave that other rolltypes can have so I may be coloured as it's what I first thought of.

[roband]

Y'realise River is dead?

Also, in my above post I meant that 2-2-1 was a possibility. I typo'd it as 2-1-1.

[roband]

I totally just read your post properly and realised that you DO realise River is dead. Sorry.

[Sungura]

Wouldn't 2-2-1 be a full lylo not just possible lylo?

And yes I realize River is dead, my first thought when I got a message to post was a beyond-the-grave role, and River is a logical one to give a BtG role too. Being a reaver so on the reaver team upon death, sending that to everyone does just what it has done - made everyone go wtf and second guess everything, which is benificial to the surviving reaver as even with one reaver they must be lynched today for us to win - as obviously killing them at night they can still get a recruit through.

[Azrael001]

Beyond the grave is not something that I considered, but it makes sense in a weird kind of way. It still really seems like a Mr. Universe power, with an alliance flavor. That is, in the movie, it took a broadcast subliminal message to get River to freak out and attack everyone. Doing something similar to everyone could indicate that Mr. Universe has been discovered by the operative and converted to alliance. But this seems far fetched.

[Sungura]

LOL this quote seems fitting right now

Wash: Psychic, though? That sounds like something out of science fiction.
Zoe: We live on a spaceship, dear.

[Misnomer]

Beyond the grave is not something that I considered, but it makes sense in a weird kind of way. It still really seems like a Mr. Universe power, with an alliance flavor. That is, in the movie, it took a broadcast subliminal message to get River to freak out and attack everyone. Doing something similar to everyone could indicate that Mr. Universe has been discovered by the operative and converted to alliance. But this seems far fetched.

I was thinking less along the lines of the subliminal message and more along the lines of the cortex override, flooding every 'channel' with the same thing. Both make sense from a flavour perspective though.

[BoomFrog]

I still say this smells like a poorly thought out invention. Mr. U was never about mind control. I don't think Reaver-Azreal would accuse Roband of being a Reaver because that puts him in a 50/50, where right now he has 1/4 chance of being lynched at worst.

However either way assuming there's only one Reaver left then Roband is confirmed town. So wake up and pay attention Roband. The game is in your hands mate.

[roband]

I fucking know.

Mr. U was never about mind control.

No, but you know who were? The hands of blue guys. This is a stretch, but if they're in the game - there's two of them...

1 reaver, 2 hands of blue, 2 town? That's not a nice prospect.

If we assume the reavers have a recruit and the HoB have a kill, we're knackered.
We can't lynch correctly, because:
if we lynch the reaver and remove the recruit from the equation - we are making it so that the HoB can ONLY hit town.
if we lynch one of the HoB, we'd need the recruit to hit the HoB and the HoB kill to hit the reaver. Actually, that would work. Shit.

HoB makes sense - or even if it's not them "generic Alliance scum" is a good enough guess for me.

So Az - I have to believe that you're town. I think. So, who out of the others do you think is a reaver and who is Alliance/HoB?
Amy has only ever outed reavers, iirc. I pinged her for Alliance early on. That'd be my pick right now.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of course, the above is only relevant if there is ONE reaver and TWO Alliance/HoB. But I think we need to consider it.

[roband]

But wow, it's easy for reavers or HoB to screw town over.

If HoB kill me (and I will reiterate that I'm defenceless/powerless - if a townie out there has a doctor, halp!) or reavers recruit me, town go down to a 1-1-1 AT BEST, tomorrow.

We're pretty fucked, because both factions are likely to want to avoid a town win, simply because they're 'anti-town'.
Although, reaver-person, whichever one you are, I will remind you - you are anti-everyone. The Alliance MADE YOU! KILL THOSE BASTARDS TOO.

Alliance, you need to cover up your secret right? Inara (me, remember) doesn't give a shit about Miranda, I just want to live and not be eaten. Destroy the evidence, kill the reaver!

Like appealing to people to stick to flavour is going to work...

[roband]

Ahh c'mon, someone post?

Can we even get a lynch majority today? If I'm right, why aren't the HoB and the reaver outing themselves and voting against one of the town?

That would leave 1 town, 2 scum with a kill and 1 reaver with a recruit going into the night.

Scum would want to kill the reaver so they can't be recruited tonight. It's bad for scum to lynch town.
Scum want to lynch the reaver to make their win easier.

The reaver doesn't care who he recruits. He can't remove the kill from the equation and I imagine they need to be a majority, so removing a faction doesn't help them at all.
The reaver wants to lynch anyone.

I don't know where this leaves us.

[BoomFrog]

Sigh, I had this whole paragraph of analysis written out but I deleted it. I just can't afford to help you too much. If I scum hunt better then you then I'm going to be the one to get NKed tonight.

I will say if there were two HoB and one Reaver then town has 100% lost already. Also it wouldn't be "possible LYLO" it'd be actual LYLO. If it was 2-2-1 and town mislynched then with one town left you'd be garunteed to lose even if Allience and Reaver went after eachother. To be possible LYLO there has to be only two true scum left. Good luck buddy. I'll put my vote whereever you put yours since you have to be town at this point.

[roband]

Yeah but I still think you're lying about being an indie - so there's that.

[BoomFrog]

Do you think I'm a Reaver or a HoB? If I'm a HoB then who is my partner?

[roband]

Amy.

Amy is not a reaver, I don't think. She's certainly claimed to be recruit-immune. She tends to not lie in claims. She has NEVER claimed to not be alliance.
Even if you're NOT HoB, Amy is.

[Sungura]

Roband I see your concern but I am confused for the same reason your 2-2-1 didn't make sense to me before. 2-2-1 (town:hob:rever) or even 3:2 (town:hob) *is* LYLO, and the mod said it's only possible lylo. Numberwise the only thing that makes sense with it being possible lylo both yesterday and today is 5:2 town:reaver yesterday, and the recruit went through before the kill, and so we are at 4:1 town:reaver today.

To me, it seems like you are just still looking for a reason to kill me. And ok say SOMEHOW 2-2-1 is "possible lylo", whose to say you aren't a HoB? Az's invention only looked for a reaver, not for a HoB. I'd not put it past the mod to leave out some of the crew member characters to help prevent mass claiming, in fact, that's exactly something I would have done as a mod.

Although I guess 3:1:1 town:alliance:reaver would be possible lylo, but how does one alliance member left make any sense as the only two characters we've not seen are HoB. We had Dobson and a random nameless Operative - the latter of which isn't cannon at all, as far as I can remember there are no nameless Operatives, the only nameless are the HoB so I guess I always just assumed they were mashed into the one Operative character.

What do people think about the possibility of Az being the reaver recruit from last night, having the most powerful claimed and verified role left and he's trusted so well by us? I guess maybe it is paranoia but like I said the only way I see it being "possible lylo" BOTH yesterday AND today was 5-2 yesterday and 4-1 today so we are looking for a new recruit.

[roband]

It's possible lylo because the mod doesn't know how the lynch will go AND how the night actions will go. Town can lose this before D8 starts. Thus, LYLO, no?

Az could be a reaver, but I think a reaver-Az would have attempted to out me as some sort of anti-town role. I suspect. I cannot be sure.

Amy, tbh - whether Az is a reaver or not - lynching you (who I am certain is both not town and not a reaver) seems logical to me right now.

[BoomFrog]

If amy and I are HoB and one of Azreal and Misnomer are reavers then it's impossible for town to win. Lynch a HoB and Reaver's win, lynch the reaver and Allience win. So, as I see it you're going to just have to trust me, because you've got nothing to lose by doing so.

Pst, Amy: "The Operative" was the name of the sword wielding badass Allience guy in the movie.

[Sungura]

Amy.

Amy is not a reaver, I don't think. She's certainly claimed to be recruit-immune. She tends to not lie in claims. She has NEVER claimed to not be alliance.
Even if you're NOT HoB, Amy is.

Cannon, alliance created reavers, and reavers destroyed the alliance, reavers can attack and kill any person (except River, but even she wasn't given reaver immunity!). Yet, I seem to be able to pick out reavers like a bird of prey finds food burried in the snow and still avoid being converted night after night without protection (proving my immunity). Walsh kept bringing people onto Serenity to "save" them while he himself was a reaver.

Yet, she sees. She doesn't see all, but she sees who he brings, and she sees him. Now he is gone, the seeing is harder.