[M] Political Parties Mafia: CNN projects: MAFIA WINS!

[Krong]

TheMaskedGecko has responded to the modprod and promised to post soon.

Less than 11 hours until the deadline! As the vote stands now, the result will be a no-lynch, since no option is leading.

[TheMaskedGecko]

Vote: Adam H
Bigger post is under construction. This is just to make sure we don't get an NL if I've mixed up timezones and I don't get it finished in time.

[TheMaskedGecko]

EBWOP Doing an analysis doesn't seem worth my while atm, as it'd be more complete tomorrow, with two peoples roles known, even if they are both dead, as it seems they might be. Sorry for the inactivity, I hit a wall of essays over the last week of term. There will be a proper post in the morning. Sorry.
Oh, and Snark: I have put a vote to protect you, just in case Adam changes his in the next hour or two.

[Krong]

The councilmembers bickered and fought. Two camps seemed to emerge: one that thought lynching could wait until tomorrow, and another that wanted to get things started right away by stringing up Adam H. Both sides produced bills in favor of their positions, and a vote was called.

By arcane parliamentary procedures dealing with time limits, the bill to lynch Adam H passed, despite it not having a majority of the vote. The lynch was set for nightfall, so the councilmembers retreated to their rooms to wait. Each room was equipped with a secure phoneline, of course, so private business could still be conducted.

Votals:
1 - wam (ahammel)
6 - Adam H (Snark, JesseScottOwen, wam, Angua, Misnomer, TheMaskedGecko)
5 - No Lynch (webby, greenlover, Adam H, CaptainFinglass, mpolo)

Adam H has been lynched. He is still alive and in his party until night.

It is now TWILIGHT. You may not post in this thread until morning. You may still chat and vote for actions in party chat and/or mafia chat.

Night will fall 24 hours from now, at 10:00PM Eastern Time on Sunday, April 1st.

[Krong]

The council realized that they'd left the mayor back in Caucus City, so the executive branch of the government wasn't present. How were they going to execute someone without the executive branch?

After a bit of quick thinking, they named one of the sturdy limbs of an oak near the driveway "The Executive." The Executive Branch was thus able to assist in the lynching of Adam H.

When morning came, the councilmembers took a good hard look at Adam H's body. That didn't help much, so they ransacked his room for evidence of scumminess. Instead, they found several books dealing with giving candy to orphans and helping elderly people to cross streets. This guy was clearly no mafioso.

Adam H was lynched. He was TOWN.

"I wonder what webby will think of this," someone remarked. "We were kinda suspicious of him yesterday, too." Not seeing him in their group, they went down the hall to his room. They found his body there, covered in copies of The Principled Politician's Weekly. On several of the magazines, they found writing in red ink, saying things like "Hahahahah" and "The Mafia was here."

Webby was nightkilled. He was TOWN.

The remaining politicians, after spending hours competing to show the most remorse at their beloved friends' deaths, finally got down to business once again. This time, the parties were evenly divided, with no silly independents running around.

10 players alive, 6 to lynch
3 to lynch at deadline

Deadline is Sunday, April 8th, at 10:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time. (7 days from now.)
Please remember that actions should be mostly decided at day, with a short twilight to finalize.

Votals:
none

Party Membership:


Turtle

• TheMaskedGecko
• ahammel
• Misnomer
• mpolo
• JesseScottOwen

Bird

• greenlover
• wam
• Angua
• Snark
• CaptainFinglass

Party Status:
Bear: Inactive
Rabbit: Inactive
Monkey: Inactive
Turtle: Active
Bird: Active
Fish: Potentially Active

BEGIN DAY TWO

[ahammel]

Well that sucks.

Birds, who did you cop?

[ahammel]

EBWOP: and by "Birds" I mean "Snark".

[mpolo]

There's a lot of wine involved in this, because there are very good reasons that some considered that any lynch is better than a no lynch. I am happy with my having decided that Adam was town, of course. The Turtles protected Snark. If he investigated webby, it's clear that yesterday's Birds included at least one scum, but we were pretty sure of that as it was.

I think that we need to pay attention especially to yesterday's independents and possibly to the Birds as well. It is pretty certain that both parties are compromised at this point, which makes our investigation and protection somewhat less useful (unless the investigation is on a scum, the scum will just kill the target; presuming that we protect the cop to make sure we get a result, of course). In any case, scum knows 100% what both parties are doing.

[mpolo]

EBWOP: I meant "yesterday's Birds" in the beginning of the second paragraph.

[Angua]

I'm not sure if it's clear that both of the parties were compromised - we all stated the plan in thread, and everyone went with it.

[CaptainFinglass]

Angua makes a good point. Copping webby was discussed on the thread multiple times, so it wouldn't be far fetched to assume the mafia NK'd based on that. That being said, it is also quite probable that there was a scum in last night's Bird party. Half of the players were in the party, so the odds that at least one of them was scum are quite good (I'm not skilled enough at math to actually figure it out precisely). Now that the town is divided up into only Bird and Turtle, it can be almost guaranteed that there is at least one scum in each party.

[Angua]

Yeah - I was just pointing out that even on the off chance that all scum were independents, we would probably still have had the same results.

[wam]

Based on whan anguas point this is there an argument to be made for deciding the party actions at the last possible moment of twilight so that the mafia have less time to pick their NK kill target based on them?

[mpolo]

I only say that both are likely compromised because of the new members. Presumably the scum have spread themselves out, having been able to plan where they land. As of yesterday, Turtle may or may not have been compromised, Bird was fairly likely compromised, but not certainly.

[JesseScottOwen]

Well that sucks.

It sucks doorknobs. And even worse, now we all look like dumb*sses.

[Snark]

We only know for sure that webby and Adam H are/were town so I'm working off that information.

From scummiest to towniest:
1. Jesse
2. Misnomer
3. Greenlover
4. Angua
5. TheMaskedGecko
6. Capt. Finglass
7. mpolo
8. wam
9. ahammel
10. Adam H
11. Snark
So yeah, use that however you wish tomorrow.

Adam H gave no full analysis, unfortunately. But here's the list of who voted to lynch him, in order, along with a quote of their reason:
1. Snark ("you just declared that'd you're pulling a one-man veto of the bird/turtle plan without the consent of the majority")
2. JesseScottOwen ("Because he's going to die either way. If we investigate him, either he will be town, and get NK'ed by Mafia, or he'll be Mafia, and we'll lynch him.")
3. wam ("Having done a read through I feel happy with this.")
4. Angua ("I"m not sure about voting for adam H, but I don't want a know lynch")
5. Misnomer ("Any lynch is better than no lynch.")
6. TheMaskedGecko ("This is just to make sure we don't get an NL if I've mixed up timezones and I don't get it finished in time.")

I'm not loving anyone's reasons for voting Adam H besides my own. Combine that with webby's list and my own thoughts and I've got this:

Snark's list from scummiest to towniest:
1. Misnomer (calls TMG and Angua slightly townie in analysis)
2. TheMaskedGecko (withholds judgement on Misnomer and Angua in analysis)
3. Angua (withholds any in-depth analysis, active lurking)
4. wam (very early on, ok with webby or Snark getting cop result)
5. Greenlover (?)
6. Capt. Finglass (?)
7. mpolo (?)
8. Jesse (?)
9. ahammel (?)
10. Snark

Also, my best guess for a scum team is Angua, Misnomer, and TMG, (especially Misnomer and TMG for covering each other in early analysis). The only problem with this is that they were the last three people to vote adam to avoid a no lynch. I don't know that scum would risk being so closely associated and risk being accused of bandwagoning.

In any case:
Vote: Misnomer
FOS: TMG
Bird party unofficial vote: Misnomer or TMG

----------------
Also if we lynch today, then we CAN NOT do a bird/turtle split because one of the groups will have only 4 in it (5 and 4 make 9). Scum can NK a townie in that group, bringing it down to 3, and then have one of their members leave that group, which disbands it. We'd be left with only the info that at least 1 out of 3 players is scum. This is hardly any info on D3.

Our options, as I seem them, are
1. Lynch and flood bear, giving us effectively 2 lynches per 1 mafia NK
or
2. NL and go 5 and 5 into bird/turle

I prefer option 1 at this stage.
----------------------

My most sincere and heartfelt apologies to webby and Adam. May they rest in peace.

[Misnomer]

I only say that both are likely compromised because of the new members. Presumably the scum have spread themselves out, having been able to plan where they land. As of yesterday, Turtle may or may not have been compromised, Bird was fairly likely compromised, but not certainly.

There was no flow between the parties, and all of us indies move to the same place - for scum to have spread themselves out last night, bird would have already needed to be comprimised, and scum would have had to be the ones pushing for the indie-move-to-turtle strategy.

As for Snark's vote, it's true I found TMG to be leaning town in my analysis. I hardly think it's the smoking-gun he's claiming it to be though, and I'm somewhat concerned at how quickly that vote's been thrown out.

I support the flood bear strategy however - it's pretty much immune to scum meddling.

[mpolo]

True, but I did say that I suspected that at least some indies were scum, so the point remains that it is fairly likely that there are at least one scum in each party.

[Snark]

mpolo, who do you think is scum and why?

[Snark]

EBWOP: The above question may go to anyone, actually.

[CaptainFinglass]

How is flooding bear immune to scum meddling? Could they not just try and sway things towards killing a townie? Just a thought.

Also, I don't think NL is really going to be an option this round--if we NL and then scum NK, we're going to have no more information other than one person being town, and that will not help us at all in the long run.

[Snark]

Didn't say it was immune. But it's no more dangerous than our day lynch, and it's safer than any other party divisions.

[Misnomer]

OK, immune is maybe too strong a word, but the point is that scum in bird or turtle can render the actions next to pointless. At most, all scum in bear can do is try to mislead town.

[wam]

Bit quiet around here!!

On the Adam H vote
1. Snark ("you just declared that'd you're pulling a one-man veto of the bird/turtle plan without the consent of the majority")
2. JesseScottOwen ("Because he's going to die either way. If we investigate him, either he will be town, and get NK'ed by Mafia, or he'll be Mafia, and we'll lynch him.")
3. wam ("Having done a read through I feel happy with this.")
4. Angua ("I"m not sure about voting for adam H, but I don't want a know lynch")
5. Misnomer ("Any lynch is better than no lynch.")
6. TheMaskedGecko ("This is just to make sure we don't get an NL if I've mixed up timezones and I don't get it finished in time."

Snarks logic was sound.

Jesse can apply to anyone we plan to investigate and will lead to us going around in circles.

I was already suspicous of Adam H, as outlined early on and his later actions just reinforced that

Angua, not wanting a no lynch is fine but why where you not sure about whether to vote adam H, where there any other candidates in your mind?

^same questions to Misnomer and TMG.

Ahammel any reason you left your vote on me when you had the key NL versus adam H vote?

Im happy with the switch to bear plan, although we still have one investigation to plan.

Although this time my suggestion is that we don't say in thread who we are investigating, it should give us some information about whether there is scum in bird or not.

Also just some advance warning, im away fri sat sun without internet so I will get my votes in early.

[Snark]

@wam
About whether to tell the Turtles who the Birds are going to investigate:

I know that I'm town so from my perspective, the probability of the other 4 Birds also being town (given random assortment) is (6/9)*(5/8)*(4/7)*(3/6) = 12%.
Even assuming that Misnomer and TMG are both definitely scum only boosts our probability of a scumless Bird party to 3/7 = 43%.

I'd like to hear whether the Turtles would be willing to give up their right to vote on who gets investigated. I'm in Bird so I obviously don't mind keeping it a secret.

BUT if the Bird Party has 2 or 3 scum, then we risk letting the scum control who gets investigated tonight (which will simply lead to town investigation and a NK of our target).

[mpolo]

I agree that only Snark's reasoning on Adam was particularly convincing -- I had almost convinced myself for the same reason, but then he reminded us to get our protect votes in, which scum would have likely allowed to slip our minds.

I don't have a lot of time right now. I am thinking that TMG, despite being rather quiet, has a better than average chance of being town for having chosen Turtle on Day 1. There are too many new people for me to try to do analysis off the cuff -- I'm going to have to devote some time to re-reading. Hopefully tomorrow afternoon.

[TheMaskedGecko]

@snark: I didn't judge angua because there wasn't anything with which to judge. Similar thing for misnomer, although I did mention that he was pinging me.

@wam: I was voting a couple of hours before the deadline. At that point my choices were limited to adam or an NL. I wasn't sure on adam (he struck me as the most likely turtlescum) but I was completely against an NL.

@snarks later post: I don't understand, the turtles don't have a right to vote on investigation targets, so we can't give it up.

It looks like I'll have time for a big post on thursday.

[Krong]

Votals:
1 - Misnomer (Snark)

10 players alive, 6 to lynch
3 to lynch at deadline (Sunday, April 8th, at 10:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time)

[Angua]

Yeah, I'm sorry - I just had a hard time getting enthusiasm for d1, because most of it was just jiggling around different scenarios to try to figure out the best option, which to be honest I found pretty boring (though the number of people wanting a no-lynch really baffled me - I was so sure webby would turn up scum for that). I'm going to try and be better now (and hopefully now that we have an actual course of action, things will start picking up).

A point of note - we have 5 people in each team at the moment, so scum shouldn't be able to dissolve any of the parties with an NK tonight. I would suggest we do the same thing, then either all move to bird or turtle tomorrow.

[mpolo]

I'll be back later to make some real input — I have to proctor an exam in five minutes, so it's not really worth trying to do something now.

I would like to answer Snark that we Turtles have never had a right to vote on the investigation. A right to express our opinion, sure, but I would rather that the investigation is kept as secret as possible until it has to be made clear, just to hope that scum can't react to knowledge of the investigation. Unfortunately, this setup favors scum in the sense that it is near-impossible to keep something secret from them (one of the big differences from Hogwarts Mafia), at least in the early days. If we manage to hit a couple of scum, that will change, obviously.

[JesseScottOwen]

I'll be back later to make some real input — I have to proctor an exam in five minutes, so it's not really worth trying to do something now.

I would like to answer Snark that we Turtles have never had a right to vote on the investigation. A right to express our opinion, sure, but I would rather that the investigation is kept as secret as possible until it has to be made clear, just to hope that scum can't react to knowledge of the investigation. Unfortunately, this setup favors scum in the sense that it is near-impossible to keep something secret from them (one of the big differences from Hogwarts Mafia), at least in the early days. If we manage to hit a couple of scum, that will change, obviously.

Chances are, there is scum in both parties, so there's no point in keeping the investigation target secret. Unless you're scum.

FoS: mpolo

[Snark]

@snark: I didn't judge angua because there wasn't anything with which to judge. Similar thing for misnomer, although I did mention that he was pinging me.

Mentioning something as simple as "pinging" is a scum move. Later in the game no one will remember it, and you can then choose whether to remind people of it depending on the situation.

In this situation, I think you mentioned it to give yourself deniability and distance yourself from Misnomer in case he got lynched later. Now you're taking the opportunity to remind us of the "pinging" because you think Misnomer's in danger of being lynched, and you don't want to be the next one to go.

A point of note - we have 5 people in each team at the moment, so scum shouldn't be able to dissolve any of the parties with an NK tonight. I would suggest we do the same thing, then either all move to bird or turtle tomorrow.

Angua, do you remember when I said this:

Also if we lynch today, then we CAN NOT do a bird/turtle split because one of the groups will have only 4 in it (5 and 4 make 9). Scum can NK a townie in that group, bringing it down to 3, and then have one of their members leave that group, which disbands it. We'd be left with only the info that at least 1 out of 3 players is scum. This is hardly any info on D3.

Our options, as I seem them, are
1. Lynch and flood bear, giving us effectively 2 lynches per 1 mafia NK
or
2. NL and go 5 and 5 into bird/turle

I prefer option 1 at this stage.

Angua, please let me know if you think it's a good idea to lynch today and still try to split between Bird and Turtle. I really hope you don't think that though, because it's a bad idea. Assuming you agree with me on that point, do you prefer option 1 or option 2 above?

@JSO
mpolo isn't scummy for that comment. There is a (albeit small) chance that the Birds are all town. Since 2 of the turtles (mpolo and TMG) are ok with only the Birds knowing the results, I think we should do this. If the copped dies tomorrow, we'll be even more sure that Bird has at least 1 scum present today.

Wrapping up,
mpolo and TMG seem to want the Birds to keep the investigation target to themselves. Unfortunately, I can't call them townie or scummy for this opinion as it could mean a good many different things. In any case, I won't announce who we're investigating publicly. BUT we should do a public vote on who gets the results, because the Turtles need to protect that person in order for them to survive the night.

Unofficial Bird Party Action vote: Investigate whoever, send results to Snark

I'd like other people to give their input on who should receive the results.

[Angua]

If scum disbands one of them, then they out a scum member. Now, they might decide that's worth it, but with only 3 scum, I highly doubt that they'll go for that option.

I still think we keep turtle and bird tonight to try and do copping again. It's not entirely useless, as if we're lucky enough to investigate scum, we'll manage to kill them.

[Snark]

Here's some analysis. We have four scenarios for Lynchee/Coppee today and tonight:

Scum/Scum - Life is just too good. Don't give a crap what scum disbands at this point.
Scum/Town - Scum probably won't disband Bird/Turtle if we try to go 4/5 split because it'd be too much info for town, imo.
Town/Scum - If scum knows they're being investigated and they're in the party with the 4 (in the 4/5 split scenario), then they will definitely disband the party because they have nothing to lose, and will get lynched tomorrow either way.
Town/Town - Life is just too horrible. Don't want to think about this possibility.

In summary, it's not a atrocious idea to lynch and still try to form Bird and Turtle, but I still stand by the flood Bear plan.

Let's get some opinions in. Here's mine:
Lynch vote: Misnomer
Bird party action vote: Investigate ?, send results to Snark
Bird/Turtle or Bear for D3: Bear

[wam]

If scum disbands one of them, then they out a scum member. Now, they might decide that's worth it, but with only 3 scum, I highly doubt that they'll go for that option.

I still think we keep turtle and bird tonight to try and do copping again. It's not entirely useless, as if we're lucky enough to investigate scum, we'll manage to kill them.

But they dont out a scum memeber, what what we gain is 3 people of whom at least 1 is scum, which is a lot less useful

How will we kill them? If we cop someone and their town they will just be NK but if they are scum we will still have to lynch them the next day, assuming scum aren't stupid enough to NK their own player.

Im happy for Snark to get the cop results again and think we should keep the target out of the thread.

The logic for keeping the target out of the thread is as follows.
Two scenarios
1 Scum in Bird

We investigate scum, we find out a scum member (assuming the person getting the results is protected)
We investigate town, they either get NK (proving scum in bird), or they dont get NK (giving us a known town).

2 No Scum in bird

We investigate scum, we find out a scum member (assuming the person getting the results is protected)
We investigate town, they dont get NK (giving us a known town). This could go wrong due to bad luck/good guessing by scum.

Either way we won't know if bird is clean but we may get a free invesitgation and a person we can then trust.

I am also happy to flood bear as we will eventually loose one of bird and turtle and they are useless alone.

I havent decided who I think should be lynched or copped, will come up with those soon.

[Angua]

How on earth is knowing for definite who is one scum better than not knowing at all? 2 town (worst case) are going to be dead tomorrow anyway. One more night of an investigation is better than us going into bear and having a vanilla game after that.

If you want, we have someone move parties so that bird is definitely not the one disbanded (should disbanding occur) as it's more useful than turtle at the moment. If we were going to do anything, everyone should flood bird, not bear! Then we can keep up the investigations for longer.

[wam]

Whatever we do we still get an investigation tonight as the changing party happens last in the night actions.

With the movement to bear, we wont have a strictly vanilla game (as i understand) as we would effectively have two lynches a day.

Bird on its own is useless as scum can just kill the person receiving the results and make the investigation pointless!

[Angua]

We don't really want 2 lynches a day though.

[Snark]

What the crap is wrong with 2 lynches a day? It will give us a chance to catch up with scum.

Besides, we can always vote no lynch or no action for either the lynch or Bear Party kill.

I think it's clear that wam and I want to go Bear, and Angua wants to go Bird/Turtle. We need more people's opinions.

[Angua]

Because we're more likely to hit our own people when we lynch. Two quick lynches can be pretty dangerous.