We Lynch Lataro
We lynch Lataro tonight. He survives. 2 night kills are made:
2 town. 4 town maximum survive - 1 unknown - 1 Lataro. Probably a 2 person scum. So 3-2-1. Bad bad bad. One last chance for town win.
1 town, 1 anti-town, probably 2 man scum. 4-1-1. Odds are against this. Things still aren't great. If we manage to kill a nker here, goes to 3-1. If Lataro is the one left, you still have to figure out how to kill him. If that night it's a townie lynched, 2-1-1, which is town loss.
If our redirector can use their role more than once, gets lucky, and chooses to redirect an anti-town that ISN'T Lataro, and redirects it to ANOTHER anti-town, AND Lataro NKIng the other anti-town. 2-non town nks,which is probably the whole scum team all at once. 5-1 for town. Requires a lot of ifs. Odds for this incredibly poor. Like, I almost shouldn't have written it down because it WON'T HAPPEN levels of improbable.
If Lataro gets lynched and stays down, unlike the last 2 times someone tried to kill him:
1 nk tonight from someone we know very little about. 5-1 best case scenario, probable 4-2. Maybe something else. I'll admit these numbers look attractive but (in my mind) the chances are good this won't work.
OR we lynch someone else, using good Ole fashion scumhunting:
We lynch a townie, lataro nks townie, anti-town nks town:
3-1-1 or 2-2-1 if the other anti town is a 2-person scum. Slight chance of town win if 2-man scum doesn't exist. If not, show's over for town.
We lynch townie, lataro nks anti-town(likely to be his plan), anti-town nks town
3-1-1 or 4-1. Chance of town win to strong chance of town win.
We lynch anti-town, lataro nks anti-town(which he's probably aiming to do).
Town vs Lataro. Very attractive picture. Still not a guaranteed win depending on Lataro's abilities. If Lataro and 2nd anti-town kill each other, town wakes up to a victory.
We lynch anti-town. Redirector works his magic on lataro.
Lataro bites the dust once and for all: town likely has 1 anti-town to deal with. could be a insta-win.
Lataro sticks with us as only he can: if 2 person scum, we deal with a nk, have to deal with lataro and 1 anti-town. Not as strong as if Lataro would just die, but not terrible.
I wrote this assuming another anti-town indy or a 2 man scum, but really there could plausibly be another indy or another scum kicking around. I also assumed that this hypothetical 2nd indy could be equated to a townie. I did not spec on any roles we have seen, and since the copping mechanic seems very conditional, I assumed it returns no further useful information until the end of the game. Naturally, any projections such as this post would be invalidated by a valid cop claim anyway. For the sake of time, I did not take into consideration the roles of the dead, beyond a primitive "Lots of indy dead, lots of town dead, no scum so far"