[T] PYPokémafia - Game ended - SK (Lataro) Wins!

[Deva]

Fair enough. Requires exceptional ineptness/unluckiness to interfere with two consecutive cop results. Fits with the game so far, though.

[Deva]

Bored. Needs to start discussing today’s lynch target. Include further role questions within that discussion.

At Gojoe, matt96, and fearless: Question: Who would you like to lynch?

At Lataro: Apologies for repeatedly asking this. Who did you attempt to kill last night? Announced it in-thread. Might have changed your mind, though. (Gives you a reason to post too.)

Forgot. Never answered your question. Asked another instead. Answer: Marked Gojoe as suspicious. Voted him for attention on Day One. Never pressed too hard. Hoped for veteran insight on Town’s side. Ranked him as the third lynch candidate on Day Three without much basis.

[Lataro]

As a point of pride, I targeted the person I claimed I was going to target. From flavor, it appears some kind of bus driver caused my kill to redirect to myself and fail. Thus, I'll have to not announce my future targets from here on in.

Seriously though, if matt96 or gojoe aren't lynched here, you guys will be beyond screwed. If they aren't scum, I'll eat my socks.

[fearless]

Bored. Needs to start discussing today’s lynch target. Include further role questions within that discussion.

At Gojoe, matt96, and fearless: Question: Who would you like to lynch?

At Lataro: Apologies for repeatedly asking this. Who did you attempt to kill last night? Announced it in-thread. Might have changed your mind, though. (Gives you a reason to post too.)

Forgot. Never answered your question. Asked another instead. Answer: Marked Gojoe as suspicious. Voted him for attention on Day One. Never pressed too hard. Hoped for veteran insight on Town’s side. Ranked him as the third lynch candidate on Day Three without much basis.

Um, woodpate I guess? Why don't you use pronouns? What are the odds that you and the cop targeted the same people on consecutive nights? maybe you should say who you targeted?

[Woopate]

As a point of pride, I targeted the person I claimed I was going to target. From flavor, it appears some kind of bus driver caused my kill to redirect to myself and fail. Thus, I'll have to not announce my future targets from here on in.

Seriously though, if matt96 or gojoe aren't lynched here, you guys will be beyond screwed. If they aren't scum, I'll eat my socks.

As amusing as it would be to see you eat your socks, why are you so confident? I would Really like to not lynch town tonight. Our track record thus far has been abysmal. And you are a SK, who likely has an ulterior motive for lynching one of those two. A little bit of explanation would definitely be in order, methinks.

[matt96]

I want Lataro lynched, he has admitted to being a serial killer and no one seems to care!
Directed at Lataro: what kind of socks are you going to eat, are they new socks, ratty, dirty, old socks that stink? Please be more specific.

[Woopate]

I want Lataro lynched, he has admitted to being a serial killer and no one seems to care!
Directed at Lataro: what kind of socks are you going to eat, are they new socks, ratty, dirty, old socks that stink? Please be more specific.

We already lynched him, once. Then someone redirected his NK back at him. Every time we waste a lynch trying to kill him, or use our roles to stop him, someone else gets to go free. There is still a NK that we can't account for in any way. Hell, it's day 4 and we haven't seen any cop claim a scum read (and we have 2 points of evidence to suggest cops exist in some form) or any sign of scum at all, with over 2 kills per day! Are you saying town should waste it's lynch expecting a different result than that which has happened already and been duplicated?

Time for some projections. Please, inform me if I made any blatant errors. By the time I got to proofreading, I was quite tired.

Spoiler:

We Lynch Lataro
We lynch Lataro tonight. He survives. 2 night kills are made:

2 town. 4 town maximum survive - 1 unknown - 1 Lataro. Probably a 2 person scum. So 3-2-1. Bad bad bad. One last chance for town win.

1 town, 1 anti-town, probably 2 man scum. 4-1-1. Odds are against this. Things still aren't great. If we manage to kill a nker here, goes to 3-1. If Lataro is the one left, you still have to figure out how to kill him. If that night it's a townie lynched, 2-1-1, which is town loss.

If our redirector can use their role more than once, gets lucky, and chooses to redirect an anti-town that ISN'T Lataro, and redirects it to ANOTHER anti-town, AND Lataro NKIng the other anti-town. 2-non town nks,which is probably the whole scum team all at once. 5-1 for town. Requires a lot of ifs. Odds for this incredibly poor. Like, I almost shouldn't have written it down because it WON'T HAPPEN levels of improbable.


If Lataro gets lynched and stays down, unlike the last 2 times someone tried to kill him:
1 nk tonight from someone we know very little about. 5-1 best case scenario, probable 4-2. Maybe something else. I'll admit these numbers look attractive but (in my mind) the chances are good this won't work.

OR we lynch someone else, using good Ole fashion scumhunting:

We lynch a townie, lataro nks townie, anti-town nks town:
3-1-1 or 2-2-1 if the other anti town is a 2-person scum. Slight chance of town win if 2-man scum doesn't exist. If not, show's over for town.

We lynch townie, lataro nks anti-town(likely to be his plan), anti-town nks town
3-1-1 or 4-1. Chance of town win to strong chance of town win.

We lynch anti-town, lataro nks anti-town(which he's probably aiming to do).
Town vs Lataro. Very attractive picture. Still not a guaranteed win depending on Lataro's abilities. If Lataro and 2nd anti-town kill each other, town wakes up to a victory.

We lynch anti-town. Redirector works his magic on lataro.
Lataro bites the dust once and for all: town likely has 1 anti-town to deal with. could be a insta-win.
Lataro sticks with us as only he can: if 2 person scum, we deal with a nk, have to deal with lataro and 1 anti-town. Not as strong as if Lataro would just die, but not terrible.

I wrote this assuming another anti-town indy or a 2 man scum, but really there could plausibly be another indy or another scum kicking around. I also assumed that this hypothetical 2nd indy could be equated to a townie. I did not spec on any roles we have seen, and since the copping mechanic seems very conditional, I assumed it returns no further useful information until the end of the game. Naturally, any projections such as this post would be invalidated by a valid cop claim anyway. For the sake of time, I did not take into consideration the roles of the dead, beyond a primitive "Lots of indy dead, lots of town dead, no scum so far"

tl;dr: things look bad. But things look DISMAL if we try to lynch Lataro tonight. It is upon this basis, and Matt's strong support for said dismal numbers, that I:

Vote: matt96

[fearless]

Please don't hammer matt (if we get to that point).

I'm still very sceptical of Deva's claim that he targetted the same people the cop did on N2 and N3. So he should say who he targetted.

[Deva]

At Lataro: Thanks. Ought to reinstate you as Town (pending on your two Mafia picks).

At fearless: Never did too well with probability. Will try. Assumes completely random selections. Had eleven people on Night Two and nine on Night Three. Remove Lataro as a possibility on both nights. Ignore self-targeting. Eliminate re-copping and re-Role Absorbing too.
Night Two: (1/9) * (1/9) * 7 = (7/81)
Night Three: (1/6) * (1/6) * 4 = (4/36) = (1/9)
Combined: (7/729) = 0.96%

Does not see any dissenting opinions.
Night Two: Angua
Night Three: matt96

May wish to avoid both, with a Redirector present. Or not.

Writes like this to please someone else. Enjoys it too.

[Deva]

Revision:
Night Two: (1/9) * (1/8) * 7 = (7/72)
Night Three: (1/6) * (1/5) * 4 = (4/30)
Combined: (28/2160) = 1.30% (rounded up).

Subtracted too many people for the multiplied whole number term. Forgot an assumption, also: no cops on the claimed Miller. Makes the whole number correct again. Could still be incorrect. Stands by the point of a really low chance, regardless.

[Angua]

I guess in Deva's defense, they could have very similar thought processes to the cops, which would increase the chances a bit. However, deva - why did you target Matt? Your power seems to be a sort of bodyguard type thing - so why did you want to protect Matt, who's not been one of the towniest players around?

I, personally, am worried about going for Lataro again. He could be lying, and both were one shot, but town still does have another kill to worry about, and presumably other scum/indies around that we need to get rid of. Risking a no-lynch is pretty risky, though I guess if we were going to go for it, now would be the best time.

At the moment though, I'm thinking either Matt or Deva.

[Deva]

Chose matt96 from process of elimination. Wanted someone to help with a Lataro lynch. Disagrees with that idea now. Disproved the one-shot resurrection theory (…probably). Considered you, as well. Opted for risk mitigation. What if you were not Town? Gives you an extra life.

Who would you have chosen? Disliked Mostlynormal’s reactions vote. Kept him free for non-cop investigations before. Saw one post from Chandani yesterday.

[Deva]

Edit bonus additon: Tried to Role Absorb you on Day One, also. Feels wrong to pick the same person three days in a row, roleblocks or not.

[fearless]

ok not sure what you said there... but I guess I'll vote matt69

[matt96]

Who is that, well, at least you aren't voting for me
I should clear things up soon enough.

[fearless]

I turned it into a dirty one

[Deva]

Please put votes on a new line.

[Lataro]

Obvious scum lynch time!

Vote: matt96

Phone posts ftw.

[Deva]

Unofficial Votals:
1 – Gojoe (Mostlynormal)
3 – matt96 (Woopate, fearless, Lataro)

Eight alive. Five for a hammer. Deadline in approximately twenty-six hours.

[matt96]

Now that I think about it, it would be bad to lynch Lataro, even if he manages to stay dead this time, as on a reasonable assumption of at least 4 not town (Lataro, and either a 3 person scum team, or 2 person scum team and another independant, possibly a lyncher or survivor) killing Lataro would result in a nearly guaranteed town loss, and as for other people, I am somewhat suspicious of Gojoe, mostly for thinking of Chickenfish as a well played jester, as mafia knows who is and isn't mafia, so if Gojoe is mafia, he would have known that Chickenfish wasn't scum, leading him to the jester idea, but I don't want to vote for him until I hear some sort of defense. FOS: Gojoe
For some reason it appears that no one thinks that scum might be among the players it seems we agree are townie, as it seems scum has been playing very well this game, or we are just horrible at scum hunting, and scum has been able to use all of the wine-filled events that have gone on so far to keep town torn apart and avoid getting lynched. Any thoughts on this, because if this is right, explanations for why people think what they think may be just the tool we need to find scum and turn this game around.

[Mostlynormal]

Hmm. I like my vote where it is. matt96 seemed genuine to me, but I think his lynch will at least give a lot of information. I'd still rather have a Gojoe lynch.

Also, only one person visited Deva N2 so if you are the cop and you didn't target Angua on that night then Deva is probably lying.

[Deva]

At matt96: Sounds rather vague. "Start questioning the towniest Town." Shrugs. Enjoys more questions.

At Angua: Counts as the towniest Town. Knows your lynch targets. Explained your votes. Hrm. Asked you somewhat rhetorical question ("Who would you have chosen for a Role Absorb?"). Consider that non-rhetorical.

Thought of another.

I haven't seen anything particularly scummy from them

What changed? Made an extremely risky claim, if Mafia. Named both targets. Requires a watcher-like power (see: Town) or obscene luck. Who would self-inflict that insane risk?

At Mostlynormal: Saw only one person Night Three also. Does Mafia need to bet on a nearly one percent chance? Remained hidden this long without any troubles.

Cannot settle for "lots of information" lynches. Needs a Mafia lynch. Remember today’s flavor?

To those of you loyal to Ash, if you ever want to see him again, now is the time for action.. Seeing how you haven't got a single clue at where he is yet, things may come to an end soon.

Translation: No more mistakes.

Prefers a Gojoe lynch over a matt96 lynch by a large margin, for the record. (Paraphrase) "Act shady on purpose to not get night killed." How does that help Town? What good is it to survive if your faction loses?

[Gojoe]

As I have already said. The reason I do it is not me thinking 100% for the town. It is 100% for me. I just dont like dying early in the game. So avoiding get NK helps me enjoy playing mafia for longer.

Still busy. But at least caught up on the thread. It seems a lot more people hate me more than Matt. But why are they not voting for me if that is the case? Because of the bandwagon on him?

[Deva]

Hold it.
(Wanted to post that the entire game. Go ahead and try to Google Image search for it. Drew it for this game.)

To be more obvious:
Personal Claim: Jolteon
Trusts your Lightning Rod (see: a flavored-up name for Role Absorb), correct? Might make this easier to swallow.

Claim for matt96: Mason Recruiter
Agreed to a claim shortly before this post. Accepted the duty. Never technically hammered out a time. Made an executive decision. Wanted more time.

Joined just after asking fearless to put the vote on a new line (see: the middle of this game day).

Transfers the rest to matt96. Consider the evidence until then.

Hello, Gojoe. Answer: Waited for your defense. Plans to vote after waking up.

Question: Are four game days of Mafia at fifty percent more fun than two game days at one hundred percent? (Pulled fifty percent out of thin air.)

[Deva]

Missed an opportunity for a Powerpoint presentation. Oh well. Acted quickly.

[Angua]

For a role absorb, I would probably have gone for fearless, Woopate or Chandani. They haven't really come under much suspicion in the past couple of days (though fearless now thinks woopate is the scummiest if I remember right). As for the quote (you could have at least told me it was from yesterday - took me a while to find it), I find your claim vaguely more scummy than I found gojoe's actions, however it's not by that much to be honest, but enough for me to prefer a vote of you over him, while I'd still prefer a vote of Matt.

As for the mason claim, it does sound pretty convenient. I wouldn't be surprised (given our lack of scum hits), that we didn't have a scum team, and had a mild cult instead (I say mild as there is probably a limit on how quickly they expand given that we've been having 2 kills every night). If other people think this could be the case, I would suggest we lynch Matt (who is hopefully the head, given that I believe deva about the role-absorbing claim) and hopefully stop the cult, and if they are town, then we go for Gojoe.

[matt96]

Sorry for not posting earlier, but what I have to say is that I am Alakazam, telepathic recruiting mason.
I can choose one person to add to my group each day/night cycle (based on number at end, so n1 is part of a separate day/night cycle than d2) and I targeted Racebandit (so I could talk to another new player about the game) N1, Roband (for advice from a recently active, much more experienced player, at least in comparison to me) D2, and suspecting possible hidden mechanics at work, did not use my power D3, and as you should be able to tell by now, Deva (for seeming townie, and well versed in flavor knowledge, and being online when I decided I needed to ise my power to help get me out of this mess) on D4. I hope this explains my towniest remark D1, and that we can use the remaining time to hunt down real scum.

[Woopate]

Unvote
Fos: Deva
Fos: Matt

Gah! Have to go to bed now but I'll definitely act before the deadline.

[Deva]

Good morning.

Vote: Gojoe

On parts more specific,

also, does anyone think it might be useful to get thoughts about who each of us considers towniest*?

Aw. Hoped to use roband’s question about masons. Happened on Day One (Page Three), though.

first to drop the phrase "Ash's side" as the name for town

Used that in the process of elimination.

Do you really think that two newbies pulled the wool over your eyes this entire time? Claimed Lightning Rod without any pressure. (Term Switch: Lightning Rod instead of Role Absorb now. Likes it better. Gave too many Pokemon clues, though.) Would have laughed and remained silent as Mafia. Should have received two Mafia results, for that matter.

At Angua: Finds your choices odd.
Chandani: Barely posted (specifically, Day Three). Contributed far less than you. Loses more by using it as a Body Guard.
fearless: Barely posted. Same with _infina_. Knew that she trusted you. Nothing more. Could not have foreseen the posts today.
Woopate: Understandable. Ranked second in the elimination process.

Rejects the cult idea. Saw no cult reveals so far. Means four cult now (see: half of the lynch and Game Over at today's start). Seems odd to have an "every other night" power. Should be at three cult in that instance. Makes the current setup three cult, two to three Mafia, Lataro, and one to two Town. Maybe a benefactor instead of a Mafia or Town.

[fearless]

waitttt so are we voting gojoe now? -_-
unvote
vote gojoe

[Angua]

We haven't seen any scum either - doesn't mean they don't exist.

Chandani is often a lurker - I recognise their name, which is probably not the best way for me to think of who I might be trusting, but I didn't feel like reading through all the posts to see who was around. I thought fearless did more posts yesterday than they did apparently. Still not sure if I'd have chosen someone I feel is more scummy than an unknown quantity though.

Also, if there is a cult then there probably isn't a mafia (you'll notice in my post I was thinking they might be the ones responsible for the killing, however we could have a vig doing killing too), so your numbers there aren't that valid.

Also, with fearless again showing they are so quick to follow the crowd, I'm going to

Fos: Fearless

[fearless]

I joined too late in the game so I don't really know what's going on. I'm just following the people that I think are town. Basically you and Deva because I believe the claim. Not too sure about matt's claim - still, just in case he's also telling the truth.

[Angua]

What do you think of the possibility of a cult masquerading as masons then?

[Deva]

At Angua: Objection. A cult with a kill? Has that ever happened?

Should have had a Vigilante come forward, also. Hunted for Mafia all of today and yesterday. Saw one other kill: Lataro’s. Means that there is no Mafia. Looks for Cult and Mafia differently.

At fearless: Question: Why do you not trust matt96's claim? Trust both of us or neither of us.

[Deva]

Unofficial Votals:
3 – Gojoe (Mostlynormal, Deva, fearless)
1 – matt96 (Lataro)

Five for a hammer. Deadline in eight hours.

[Angua]

I've heard of it, though you have to weaken the cult a lot, or massively power up town. We don't know how powered town is though, as we don't get people's role when they die. Could also be a vig doing the other kill though.

[fearless]

At Angua: Objection. A cult with a kill? Has that ever happened?

Should have had a Vigilante come forward, also. Hunted for Mafia all of today and yesterday. Saw one other kill: Lataro’s. Means that there is no Mafia. Looks for Cult and Mafia differently.

At fearless: Question: Why do you not trust matt96's claim? Trust both of us or neither of us.

the answer to your question lies in my questions. (see i can speak in riddles too!)

[Woopate]

Walp. I'm in. Let's see how the bones fall.
Vote: gojoe

[Lataro]

Unvote
Vote: gojoe

Hammer time!

[Gojoe]

Pretty sure I am dead already. But what the hell does this mean?

Question: Are four game days of Mafia at fifty percent more fun than two game days at one hundred percent? (Pulled fifty percent out of thin air.)