[M] Political Parties Mafia: CNN projects: MAFIA WINS!

[Snark]

It's currently at a tie in the Bird party votes. Wam and I want me to get the results. Angua and greenlover want Angua to get the results.

If I don't get the results and get protected, I'll most likely get NK'd tonight. I wish I had more information to leave with town, but I have no clue who the scum are. My only feelings are that wam and JSO are town, and I think Misnomer and Angua are scum.

Unvote
Vote: Misnomer

[ahammel]

[quote="Snark"]
If I don't get the results and get protected, I'll most likely get NK'd tonight./quote]
You keep saying this. Why?

[ahammel]

EBWOP: and that, kids, is why we use the preview button.

[Snark]

Ask me tomorrow. If I'm dead, I'll have no need to answer you. If I'm alive, I'll explain it.

[ahammel]

Ask me tomorrow. If I'm dead, I'll have no need to answer you. If I'm alive, I'll explain it.

What are you, the Giant now? If you're not going to explain it, why bring it up?

Also: somebody break the Bird tie please. If CaptainFinglass hasn't voted, he should.

[mpolo]

The scummy feeling for Snark is just growing. Which of course, means that it is likely that he will, in fact survive the night, because now he is either scum or town that no one trusts. As a result, I have no interest in his being protected and don't trust him with the bird results. I would support giving Angua the results. (Not that I officially have a vote.)

[Krong]

About 6 hours until deadline!

Votals:
4 - JesseScottOwen (mpolo, ahammel, CaptainFinglass, Angua)
1 - Angua (wam)
2 - Misnomer (TheMaskedGecko, Snark)

10 players alive, 6 to lynch
3 to lynch at deadline (Sunday, April 8th, at 10:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time)

[Angua]

Ask me tomorrow. If I'm dead, I'll have no need to answer you. If I'm alive, I'll explain it.

Considering everyone is vanilla in this game, I don't see why you'd be that great a target. It's not like you're secretly a doctor or something.

[JesseScottOwen]

Once again, I'm not scum. I'm town. The people who voted for Adam H's lynch were: Snark, JesseScottOwen, wam, Angua, Misnomer, and TheMaskedGecko. Votes for me so far are: mpolo, ahammel, CaptainFinglass, and Angua.

The only common denominator is Angua, so:

Vote: Angua

If there's a chance to avoid being lynched, I would jump on a Misnomer lynch, because I believe that he is scum. Is that scummy, not wanting to be lynched? I guess not. I'm town.

If you lynch me today, then in the morning there will be two less townies, and I doubt town will win this game. But hey, maybe you guys can do it. I still want town to win, even if I get lynched.

Also, in case you haven't caught it, I don't trust Angua, and will not be voting to protect him tonight. But Misnomer is a Turtle, and may want to protect his fellow Mafia. I wouldn't be surprised.

Cheers!

[Angua]

I'm a she.

[JesseScottOwen]

I knew that. My apologies.

[Misnomer]

I'm guessing bear flood isn't materialising, so I'll stay put in turtle.

With the deadline rushing, it looks to me like the only candidates are myself and JSO. Well, at least I guess that simplifies things for me.

Vote: JesseScottOwen

[mpolo]

Might as well tell Jesse that Misnomer is interested in protecting Snark, which doesn't help your Angua/Misnomer scum theory. Of course, Misnomer is a good enough player that it doesn't hurt that theory either.

Birds, who is getting the results??

[JesseScottOwen]

Might as well tell Jesse that Misnomer is interested in protecting Snark, which doesn't help your Angua/Misnomer scum theory. Of course, Misnomer is a good enough player that it doesn't hurt that theory either.

I'm a Turtle, bud. Thanks, though.

P.S. I'm a townie. Not scum.

[Snark]

Still tied between Angua and I.

[ahammel]

It's getting late, guys. If Capt. isn't going to be around to cast the deciding vote in the Birds, somebody needs to withdraw theirs.

[Snark]

Just had epiphany. Gonna change my vote and let Angua do the investigation.

Protect her.

[Snark]

We'll either have a confirmed townie (me) or ability to use both parties tomorrow. We'll see.

Unvote
Vote: JesseScottOwen

[/hammertime]

[ahammel]

Just had epiphany. Gonna change my vote and let Angua do the investigation.

Protect her.

My vote's in.

[Krong]

The deliberations really heated up towards the end of the day. Fearing a procedural deadline, the council members came up with a lynch target, then surprised themselves by reaching a majority before their deadline. They then all got on their cell phones to make calls to, uh, "old friends". Not related to business at all.

Votals:
6 - JesseScottOwen (mpolo, ahammel, CaptainFinglass, Angua, Misnomer, Snark)
2 - Angua (wam, JesseScottOwen)
1 - Misnomer (TheMaskedGecko)

JesseScottOwen has been lynched. He is still alive and in his party until night.

It is now TWILIGHT. You may not post in this thread until morning. You may still chat and vote for actions in party chat and/or mafia chat.

Night will fall 24 hours from now, at 8:00PM Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, April 9th.

[Krong]

Caucus City was headed toward a time of peace! Or at least that's what the politicians told the curious band of reporters that showed up to document JesseScottOwen's hanging. After all, they had reached agreement on something a little bit before they needed to! That was cause for serious optimism, right?

Someone must have given the caterer a tip, because the next morning's breakfast was delicious. A spread of pancakes, sausages, eggs, fruit, toast... everything served in the finest rectangular-steel-things-with-tiny-burners-under-them. This day was looking up already! They resolved right then to continue being agreeable and self-congratulatory for as long as possible.

Oh, that matter of the lynch. Right.

They strolled outside to the Executive Branch and looked at JesseScottOwen's body. They were surprised to find that he was wearing a wire. A few of the politicians, remembering too-candid conversations with him about campaign financing, got a bit nervous. Thankfully, the others agreed on letting them destroy the tapes... wouldn't want anyone's career getting ruined!

Unfortunately, JesseScottOwen's career was ruined. And the recording device, stamped with a "CCPD" insignia, made it pretty clear that he was not working with the Mafia.

JesseScottOwen was lynched. He was TOWN.

A little disappointed, they started back into their deliberations, when they found someone waiting there for them.

"Hi, I'm Tim," said Tim. "mpolo lost a recall election -- I'm here as his replacement."

They greeted Tim warmly, and looked for mpolo to tell him the bad news. Unfortunately, it seemed mpolo had learned worse news already, courtesy of the two crack reporters Smith and Wesson.

mpolo was nightkilled. He was TOWN.

Tim, in a bit of legal limbo, was told to stick around in case they needed him to replace anyone else.

In the meantime, the feeling of togetherness was starting to fray. The Bird Party members started to question why the Turtle Party had so utterly failed to protect anyone thus far. But they soon found that no one was willing to call themselves a Turtle anymore. The remaining former Turtle members were now all Independents. It seemed that the Turtle Party had faded into history.

Under a suddenly more saddened atmosphere, the council began the day.

8 players alive, 5 to lynch
3 to lynch at deadline

Deadline is Monday, April 16th, at 9:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time. (7 days from now.)
Please remember that actions should be mostly decided at day, with a short twilight to finalize.

Votals:
none

Party Membership:


Bird

• greenlover
• wam
• Angua
• Snark
• CaptainFinglass

Independents

• TheMaskedGecko
• ahammel
• Misnomer

Party Status:
Bear: Inactive
Rabbit: Inactive
Monkey: Inactive
Turtle: DISSOLVED
Bird: Active
Fish: Potentially Active

REMINDERS/WARNINGS
1. With 5 town and 3 scum remaining, it would be MYLO in a vanilla game. I will not call "official" MYLO or LYLO since actions may alter the equation.
2. When you make your party affiliation choices for tonight/tomorrow, remember that the number of players needed to form a party will change to TWO for N3/D4.

BEGIN DAY THREE

[Misnomer]

FoS: TMG, ahammel

One of you quit the party, and is therefore scum.

[JesseScottOwen]

Ack. I'm lynched. Jerks.

[Misnomer]

One further thought before I get some sleep - we need to flood Bear today and, unless we've got a cop result we're prepared to trust, NL. That'll mean that tomorrow we'll have another cop result, and the potential to escape LYLO using the bear kill (also, making sure that scum can't claim bear for themselves is now a must).

[Snark]

Ok. So the story last night was that I knew JSO was going to be lynched, so I hammered him myself to keep the following plan intact: Let Angua investigate me. That way I knew that for scum to dissolve a party, they'd need to leave me alive and lynch a Turtle, as they've done. I had hoped they would opt to NK me and let us keep our parties open, but this was the best we could do, I guess.

I think tonight we should have our scummiest player (besides the one we lynch) be the cop and investigate the second-scummiest player. If cop/copped turns out to be scum/scum then neither will die tomorrow and we'll know they're probably both scum. If scum/town, the copped will get NK'd. If town/scum, the cop will get NK'd. If town/town, then one will be NK'd or neither will and scum will try to frame them as both being scum. It's poop, but I think it's the best we can do without the turtle party.

IF WE LYNCH TODAY:
If we mislynch today, we lose and it doesn't matter what parties we choose to go to unless scum is dumb enough not to go Bear and at least two town go to Bear. If we lynch correctly today and don't go Bear, then scum can go Bear and tomorrow it will be 4-2 with both scum known. Then the scum have a NK and Bear Kill but we lynch correctly bringing it to 2-1 and we lynch scum the final day. Town wins. Rejoice. With this in mind, scum won't go Bear today if we lynch correctly. Said all that to say this: It doesn't matter if we flood Bear or not. I don't think it matters at all what parties we go to today, if we decide to lynch. Also note that Bears can not target other Bears so if we all go Bear, Bear becomes useless.
IF WE NL today:
We must flood bear to avoid a definite loss tomorrow.
SUMMARY:
Flooding bear works in either scenario, and I'm putting my vote in now to do so.

I believe that scum expect us to lynch an indy today since we know that at least 1 is scum, BUT I don't think that scum would have dissolved turtle if 2 or 3 of Misnomer/ahammel/TMG is scum because it gives us really good odds when targeting the independents.

I therefore believe that there's exactly 1 scum in Turtle and 2 left in Bird. I know that I'm town, so if I'm correct, I have a 1/3 = 33% chance of lynching a indy scum, but 2/4 = 50% chance of lynching bird scum. But then again, all the townies in indy (if there are any) have at least a 50% chance from their perspective of hitting scum in indy and only 40% chance of lynching scum in bird. From a neutral perspective, 1 indy scum, and 2 bird scum makes 33% and 40% respectively which means it doesn't matter much which party we lynch from. However no one has a neutral perspective so birds logically should be voting for their fellow birds and indys for their fellow indys. (There is the possibility of 2 or more scum in Indy, but I don't think that that's the case)

Also, I'll be interested in finding out whether Angua is going to lie about her cop result on me or not.

Also if two townies vote for a fellow townie, then SCUM can crank out 3 votes, HAMMER AND WIN. So lets not vote til we're sure of who we want to be voting for, ok?

@Misnomer
We can't protect ourselves by flooding Bear because Bear can't target other Bears.

My list of people I would most like to put a vote on today:
Misnomer
CaptainFinglass

[Angua]

Snark is town, sadly. I was so hoping for this to go the other way.

Also, now that someone has remembered that bears can't lynch themselves, I have no problems with flooding bear should anyone want to.

[wam]

Well this isn't going to plan!

I have finally caught back up and gone back through the thread. Below are the list of votes for JSO and brief reasons.

1) Mpolo (More of a scummy yes man and very keen for the 2 lynches/flood bear strategy)

2) ahammel (Doesn't like the proposed strategy plus posting less and less, plus wierd vote on adam H)

3) Captain Finglass (against a NL and for trying to fade into the background and not providing evidence of innocence)

4) Angua (for tying themselves to Snark as towniest player on D1)

5) Misnomer (self preservation vote)

6) Snark (no specific reasons but general strategy reasons)


Votes for Adam H where Snark, JesseScottOwen, wam, Angua, Misnomer, and TheMaskedGecko

As JSO pointed out the only common vote was Angua, who was also completely wrong about her scum team of Snark (confirmed town), JSO (dead town) and me (town).

Captain Finglass vote was very bandwagonny, not really offering any new justifications and slightly dodgy reasoning.

We also have one of the indepedants as scum. so my list of townieness to scum

Town
Snark (assuming we beleive the cop result and i don't see why not)
greenlover (although rather lurky)
Ahammel
Misnomer
CaptainFinglass
Angua
TMG
Scum

Strategy wise, I think if we stay in bird we should give the results to someone other than snark. As this way scum would have to choose between NK the person receiving the cop result or the know town, assuming both are town.

With reagrsd to which party, I believe that most party powers are going to become redundant as the game progresses so the important thing is to make sure that scum don't get control of a party.

The other thing that no one has mentioned is the very slim possibility of a scum team of TMG ahammel misnomer and they have all switched to the Fish party. This would mean they would only need one town on town vote to hammar and to win the game!! We should therefore keep a close eye on votals.

[Angua]

Also, for snark's plan (now that I'm more awake):

I've been thinking about the strategy of having scummy players cop scummy players for a while now, but here's the problem. If neither of them die, we can't trust the cop result, because the cop might be scum, and we can't trust the fact that they're both scum because scum would be quite happy nking a randomer, especially when they know what our plan is. People I keep pegging as scummy are turning up town, and people that are pegging me as scum have off scumdar too .

I think we should probably lynch someone in bird today. I'm up for lynching greenlover, because they've been lurking worse than me. I beginning to get the feeling that most of the scummy players are laying low.

[Snark]

Assume Angua/Snark have the following alignments:
Scum/Scum - Angua would almost definitely say town because bussing isn't an optimal strategy for scum at this point
Scum/Town - Angua would probably tell the truth as most townies would probably trust me over her
Town/Scum - Angua would tell the truth and say scum as the result - which didn't happen
Town/Town - Angua will tell the truth and say town is the result

Conclusion:, the only real conclusion you can draw from the cop result is that if I am scum, then Angua is definitely scum.

Therefore, (and I think everyone already knew this), Angua is strictly a better choice than me for the lynch. So I'm un-lynchable today, unless the votes are from idiots or blatant scum.

Also good to note, we don't want ANY ties or near ties at deadline because scum can vote hop at the last second and kill town. So let's all agree on a lynch target, and then all vote for that one target.

[Snark]

Can we get another modprod on greenlover? It's been about 6 days again.

Vote: greenlover

because 2 week-long lurking segments is more than enough for anybody.

[greenlover]

Meh... sorry for not posting more. I'm just kinda lost in this game.

But anyway, surely we have better leads at this point rather than lynching the lurker? I'll do a re-read in a bit to see if I come up with anything.

[ahammel]

Can we get another modprod on greenlover? It's been about 6 days again.

Vote: greenlover

because 2 week-long lurking segments is more than enough for anybody.

Seriously?

Vote: no lynch

You know it's MYLO, right? This is not the time to be handing out lurker-kills. Really, NL should be a no-brainer.

Honestly, between this vote and Angua advocating the same thing, I don't know if I'm prepared to dismiss the possibility of a Snark/Angua/TMG or Misnomer scumteam.

[Angua]

Thanks for pointing that out - I'd completely missed that bit.

vote: no lynch

However, I'm thinking we should keep a split between bear and bird, with bear agreeing not to lead a second lynch on the birds, unless we get a result we can trust tonight. We should have three people switch to bear, so even with the NK we'll definitely get the team.

[ahammel]

However, I'm thinking we should keep a split between bear and bird, with bear agreeing not to lead a second lynch on the birds, unless we get a result we can trust tonight. We should have three people switch to bear, so even with the NK we'll definitely get the team.

...seriously?

Unless at least two of the players we send to Bird are scum, mafia will have a controlling majority in Bear tomorrow and it's game over.

FoS: Angua, and, by extension: FoS: Snark

Despite Snark's comments above, if Angua is scum and Snark is town it would clearly be best play to lie about the cop result.

[Snark]

Unvote

We're at 5/3 today. We need 4 out of the 5 townies to all vote for the same scum in order to lynch scum today (unless scum vote for each other which is unlikely) because all 3 scum can vote for the same townie.

If we NL, we're at 4/3 tomorrow and we'll need all 4 townies to vote for the same scum.

Conclusion: We have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch today.
Corollary: Angua and Misnomer are scum.

Vote: Angua
for trying to get a subset of the population to move to Bear and for voting NL. Obvi-scum.

FoS: ahammel
for agreeing with the NL option.

Footnote: I will change my vote back and forth between Angua and Misnomer to whichever of the two has more votes at the time.

PS: Fellow townies, please lynch Angua or Misnomer today. I'd like to lynch at least 1 scum before we lose this game.

[wam]

I could see an argument for NL if we had a guaranteed cop result to come, but at the moment scum can just lynch whoever gets the results and we would be left in the same situation as we are now, although with a slightly higher chance of lynching scum as it would be 4/3 rather than 5/3.

So therefore I am not infavour of a NL.

I agree with the suspicions of Angua (see my previous post and snarks for reasoning) and at the moment i could be conviced by an Angua lynch but have my doubts, see below.

Ahammel, I'm not sure what you are trying to say about the cop result, could you explain it again?

My reads on it are as follows

scum/scum Angua says snarks town,
Scum/town Angua says snarks town or scum depending on what she wanted to agree, although if she had said scum and bandwagonned him we would probably have lost this!
town/scum Angua says snarks scum (which is not the case)
Town/town Angua say snarks town

This logic is whats putting doubt in my mind. Either angua and snark are scum which i doubt as why would he vote her as this point, as bussing would be stupid for scum at this point.

Angua scum snarks town, why would angua not lead a lynch on him when it would probably win scum the game (this is my worry about lynching angua).

This means that in my mind town/town is the more likely scenario which makes an angua lynch stupid.

[Snark]

It would have been stupid for Angua (as scum) to call me scum. I'm guessing that Angua knew she couldn't get away with lying, because she believed that the majority of town would have sided with me and lynched her.

No matter, we can always lynch Misnomer if you think Angua is clean.

[Snark]

I could see an argument for NL if we had a guaranteed cop result to come, but at the moment scum can just lynch whoever gets the results and we would be left in the same situation as we are now, although with a slightly higher chance of lynching scum as it would be 4/3 rather than 5/3.

It'd be a lower chance of lynching scum as scum would control a larger percentage of the vote.

[TheMaskedGecko]

I'm pretty much ready to reinstate my vote on misnomer. Out of the two remaining exfish, he is by far the most scummy, something that hasn't changed today.

Re: Potential Angua-snark scum team. I'm not convinced. Angua always seemed quite towny to me. Even her latest post reads as someone missing a point while trying to find a better strategy. In fact the only thing I really find suspicious about her is that she claims to have a towny cop result on snark. Snark, who has spent most of today very obviously distancing himself from angua, while doing his own townyness no favours. In fact the only thing stopping me from voting him is that I can't think of a way he could be scum and angua not. IGMEOY, both of you.

I actually considered a nolynch today but, after carefully considering the options, decided against it because:
a) A succesful lynch puts us in a much better position tomorrow than an NL because;
b) A no lynch puts us at LYLO, not just tomorrow but for the rest of the game;
c) We learn nothing tonight. Nothing.

"But TMG, what about the cop result tonight?"
I'm glad you asked that, Internal Dialogue and Handy Literary Device. The cop result is worse than useless. If we give it to someone we consider towny then they will die without the turtles protection, leaving us with nothing. If we give it to someone scummy then the aforementioned towny person still dies, leaving us with a cop result we don't trust.

So, in summary, the only thing an NL has going for it is that we are, theoretically, statistically better off tomorrow. The problem with that is that people who play mafia statistically tend to lose. The scummiest looking players will be left and we will be forced to pick from among them.

So, with that said

Vote: misnomer

Ninja'd

It would have been stupid for Angua (as scum) to call me scum. I'm guessing that Angua knew she couldn't get away with lying, because she believed that the majority of town would have sided with me and lynched her.

What? Angua looks a lot more towny than you. She could have very easily got you lynched. No, you're both the same alignment, whether town or scum.

[Snark]

I promised I would switch my vote between Angua and Misnomer with the majority. I'm doing that now.

Unvote
Vote: Misnomer

Unofficial votal
2 - No lynch (ahammel, Angua)
2 - Misnomer (Snark, TMG)

And if we manage to lynch Misnomer, and I'm still alive tomorrow, I'll be coming after anyone voting no lynch today.

Note: As I said before, I'm unlynchable today as Angua is strictly a better choice than me. Using more beautiful logic, Angua is mostly un-NKable tonight, because 1. If she's scum, obviously she won't be NK'd. and 2. If she's town and gets NK'd, everyone will know that I'm town. Therefore Angua should definitely be the cop tonight. I'll want her to investigate Misnomer if he's not lynched and ahammel otherwise.