I have more job stuff to do today and leaving for the Easter weekend and will be offline as well. Hoping we can table the game for the few days and if day end is this weekend the mod will give a 2-day Easter extension?
This isn't as complete as I wanted it to be but it is where my thinking is at the moment. I decided to look instead of at people, at actions we *can confirm*. Because when I look at people I start getting paranoid about everyone and everyone looks bad.
Day 2: Az ends it early by pressing a red button
Day 4: Az has another red button, the "Ultrakilla Nuclear powered Plasma Cannon 5000. This gave me another red button with instructions to vote to aim, and pressing it to fire."
Day 7: Everyone has to post the same thing which includes voting for me. No one is claiming credit, lots theories but none provable.
D/N1 Deaths: GopherofPern (Dobson, Alliance), Greenlover (Operative, Alliance)
D/N2 Deaths: Adacore (River, Reaver)
D/N3 Deaths: mrface (Reaver) NO NK
D/N4 Deaths: SecondShadow (Saffron, indie), FireBurns (Reaver) NO NK
D/N5 Deaths: Chandani/Devorke (Malcom, modkill for inactivity), FAOT (Book, Reaver), MostlyNormal (Simon, lots thought he was reaver or alliance)
D/N6 Deaths: Angua (Zoe, Reaver)
Night Kills: We have ONE night kill going on, and it can clearly be blocked. Either that or perhaps it is independent single shot kills. Seems to be vigilante based due to the reavers and alliance being taken out with it. I think due to the straight shooting it is best interest to KEEP the kill in play. The role most likely for a vig is Jayne.
The Buttons: One time the button was clearly used in an anti-town manner (by design or by accident cannot be proven). The other time the button use was extremely public and did get the original reaver (dont forget it was my scumhunting that brought said reaver to light). Now, I do want to point out here that the wand the Blue Hands had to kill people with that made that loud noise, activates with a little red button (I just went back and looked at the scenes).
The Make-EveryonePost: Few theories here...
1) An invention (suggests Az)
2) Broadcasting event (suggests BF)
3) Mind Control (suggests blue hands)
4) Beyond-the-Grave ability (suggests River/Adacore)
Mass Claim Prevention:
The mod has said there are mechanisms to prevent/make mass claiming hard. Multiple ways to do this two main ones
2) leave out some cannon characters - this allows easy falseclaiming
Being a strong town player has a twofold issue - 1) people tend to follow me, then become scared of me end-game for whatever reason and vote me off - this happens a lot and 2) the people who strongly follow me are often anti-town to get good townie cred
Roband - I think you are town and I hope you can find it somewhere to trust me that I am town.
Misnomer - You've been mostly quiet and background, this makes me nervous and I have no opinon on you
Boomfrog - Your claim does not sit well with me especially with the #2 theory for the message sent out. However you have promised to vote with the town so I see you as a less threat, but I wish you would be more active since claiming.
Az - You've been dumb (aka button #1), You have followed me very blindly, and You are most likely recruit clearly having confirmed powers and being well-trusted overall.
Should we be at a 4:1 town:reaver as I think we are, I think Azrael is MostLikelyReaver being recruited last night (remember in this scenario, yesterday had to be 5:2 so the recruit last night went through, and it is the new recruit that is alive because previously when a new recruit was targeted for a kill the flavour said so).
Should we be at 2:2:1 (town:HoB:reaver) as Roband thinks we are, Azrael is likely reaver and/or HoB (due to my new alt take on the button issue). Misnomer perhaps HoB, BF perhaps HoB/reaver.
If we dont hit reaver, reaver recruits tonight and town is sunk tomorrow no matter what, numberwise. If we are in 4:1 and lynch reaver, we win. If we don't night is 3:1 and they recruit that puts it at 2:2, and we rely on the kill to hit right. If we are 2:2:1 and lynch reaver, assuming HoB have the kill (which doesn't make sense with the only one (or none) kill pattern with a history of taking out alliance and reavers) night starts 2:2, HoB win. If we hit HoB, night starts 2:1:1, with a recruit and kill, town loss (sorry, Roband, one of those is gonna hit you most likely - you'd be the logical one, or Misnomer, other likliest town, which means town loss) as soon as only ONE town is hit. If we lynch town, well obviously we loose in the 2:2:1 scenario as well.
This means - in a 2:2:1 town is /already/ 100% fucked. In a 4:1, town is not fucked if we hit reaver.
Therefore it is best to go after a reaver today for the best shot at town victory.
Considering in both scenarios Az is likliest reaver, I will likely be voting for Az.
I am holding off on voting because it IS easter weekend and I want to give everyone chance to chime in. I hope the rest of you do the same. One vote on someone could mean a quick lynch while people are offline, which would not be a good thing Im sure we can all agree.
"Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocrities. The latter cannot understand it when a man does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices but honestly and courageously uses his intelligence." ~ Einstein