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Snark wrote:@wingedocelot
Have you given your own list somewhere? Or you waiting to bat cleanup for some strange reason?
wingedocelot wrote:According to my working out, deadline in just over 4 hours. I'm not going to be able to post much due to meetings from now on.
@chickenfish - I said I would vote either. I chose matt because I'm starting to distrust mostlynormal. Also, I figured my voting for matt96 would also allow us to get to a potential lynch faster (and have PR's claimed if they are going to be).
matt96 wrote:I think we still have a whole day for discussion, as Lataro was talking about late Thursday night Alaska time, which is early Friday morning EST, so we should even be able to have something from Carey's replacement before we get around to the actual lynching, one of the worst things possible for town is a rushed lynch, as it results in a lot of bandwagoning, and lets scum who play their cards right manipulate town into getting a townie lynched.
Snark wrote:You're really going to keep trying to vote for wam when he clearly explained himself and gave reasons for his vote? And you're also going to try and make me look bad for unvoting him? You look like scum trying to push a townie lynch and discredit a townie simultaneously.
Here's my better vote target.
Vote: Chickenfish
And by extension, FoS: fearless
The underlined - I lolled.KrO2 wrote:I do think the things Chickenfish has against me are stronger than fearless' (related: I can't juggle), and pointing things like that out is not at all scummy. I'm trying to avoid being all OMGUS-y.To me it looks like if one of fearless and Chickenfish is scum, the other probably is as well, but I'm not about to accuse them both because what they said actually sounds reasonable.
Yeah I just failed at editing my quotes within quotes, I knew it was WO, and as such that statement was directed at her. I don't think she was just taking my word for it, I think my argument persuaded her and she agrees.KrO2 wrote:Actually, that quote was from wingedocelot, who is definitely taking your word for it.Chickenfish wrote:fearless wrote:The point is we can't know they will be acting as an inbetweener in this game. We have no idea (yet) what strategy scum have decided to employ. But I agree with you it's super easy for us to lynch town tonight, especially if they are playing as an inbetweener. But apparently D1 mislynch is better than no-lynch according to CF.
You know full stops aren't a scumtell right? Other than that, you've used POE to get to your happy lynches because you wouldn't be surprised if those of us in the debate were town? That's terrible. There's so much more in here to go on.matt96 wrote:My post was significantly less than what I was aiming to get posted, I wanted to summarize all the things that went on between Chickenfish, Snark, and Mostlynormal, to point out that it seems to me that it is highly unlikely for more than one of them to be scum, and there is no clear distinction of which of them is scummiest, and that it wouldn't surprise me if it turns out that none of them are scum, but they are just townies involved in a heated debate about optimal strategy, but I am not to sure of that ever since pypokemafia, where the player at the top of almost every one's towniest list ended up being scum, but assuming no one would be able to pull off being scum and posting so much without messing up at all in a vanilla newbie game, that narrows down my pool of lynch candidates to 5, Carey, wam, KrO2, fearless, and wingedocelot, and of those I am getting a slight towny vibe from KrO2, just in general from (insert preferred possessive pronoun here) posts, and even more ambiguous towny-ish vibes from every one else other than Carey (who has only had one post with literally no content and has somehow managed to get away with it)
matt96 wrote:I like it when people post content, it gives us something to work with
I still can't stand this. Why does it matter that nobody else is supporting it? If you think your vote is wasted on me, then vote for somebody else, like fearless whose lynch you prefer to matt's? Don't do nothing with it - it's even more wasted not being anyway.Snark wrote:I'm going to
Unvote: Chickenfish
because no one else is apparently in favor of lynching him besides me.
And I'd like to note that I prefer a fearless lynch to a Matt lynch.
I've said that understanding who is considered most towny in people's minds is advantageous for scum, and then you decide people should be adding a fourth to their list? Consider we mislynch today - 8 players left, everybody's said their 4 scummiest, scum know who 2 of the scum are. This is pretty much telling scum the two or three people that they will have the hardest time pushing a case against, and as such should NK. I really suspect you know this though, and that's why you tried to start the trend.wingedocelot wrote:My fourth is fearless - I haven't had much time to go through and do my own analysis on her, but I agree with a lot of the suspicions others have laid down against her in their votes.
I really like the underlined. This is a point I was going to make, but you've already made it really. People recently seem to be primarily going for the information lynch, and trying to analyse what we can determine from the town/scum flip. If you think somebody is scum, that's all that should matter. If you think 2 or 3 people are equally likely to be scum, then sure figure out who you get the most info from.KrO2 wrote:Right now I'm leaning toward matt96. He hasn't responded to the many suspicions about the summary, and his (bolded) vote on careyhammer looks like mafia going for the safe vote, since Carey isn't going to defend himself. (Incidentally, the other two people who said a careyhammer lynch is acceptable to them were the other people I'm OK with lynching. Might not mean much, but it makes me feel better about my choices.) The downside of a Matt lynch is that if he is scum all it really tells us is that Carey probably isn't, which is useless unless he either starts posting or gets replaced. And if Matt isn't scum, I don't see us learning much at all. I'm willing to accept that downside because, like I said earlier, I think he's our most likely mafia member.
I'm sorry I ever doubted you MN. Barn the hell outta this whole post (other than the 3 you listed... sorta. More the fact that you listed at all)Mostlynormal wrote:if you look, I do have three candidates. And I'm willing to post them here: wam, matt, and Snark. However, I still think this is a bad idea. It makes it way too easy for scum, they just pick three people out of the generally considered scummy and float on by without having to give a good argument. It's also wide angle and rather vague: how do you pressure with a three-way vote, and how can you defend yourself without looking like overreacting? I'm sorry, I don't like it at all.
So while I have no problem with posting my top three scummiest I'm going to put my vote where I want to put it because I'm going to put it where I think it's most likely to hit scum. Which would be wam
Vote: wam
For the earlier wishywashiness, and for getting by with around the same content level as matt.
This I don't like, for the same reason as I liked your previous post. You're theorising about the future too much, in the same way that you (I believe, correct me if I'm wrong) did about how we should treat claims/counterclaims. Whoever we lynch today, keep in mind we'll actually have 2 deaths tomorrow to analyse - the second of which would hold more weight than the first. Here you're either trying to get town to tell you who to NK/push tomorrow's lynch on or you're unwittingly helping scum find these things out. I implore people not to answer these sorts of questions.KrO2 wrote:For anyone who hasn't voted yet or wants to consider switching from wam to matt96*,
I was thinking earlier about what we could find out from a Matt lynch, and I remembered one point earlier where he discounted the possibility that any of the most active players could be scum. So if he turns out scum, then aside from being pretty good evidence in favor of Tim being town, it's also evidence in favor of one of Chickenfish/Snark/Mostlynormal being scum. And since there'd only be one scum left, and I'm still fairly convinced of "if Chickenfish then fearless," then that leaves Snark and Mostlynormal. This absolutely is not definitive of course, so someone let me know if I'm stretching too much. I'd prefer someone not mentioned above so we can try to avoid conflict of interest, but I'm not about to tell people not to post.
If Matt turns out to be town, that's less information for us, but since we're looking for two scum in that case I'd start by reexamining the fearless-Chickenfish connection to see where it is on the spectrum from "damning evidence" to "not actually there," or maybe by just moving to the player who looked next scummiest.
Everybody: What specifically do you think we can and can't infer from finding out that matt96 is scum/town? That wam is? Answering this will help us decide which lynch gives us more information.
*Except wingedocelot. When your vote was on him I think it was the scummiest you've looked all game. Even aside from what Chickenfish said, voting based on authority seems weird; just because you think I'm town doesn't mean you should trust my opinion on who's scum. And you certainly shouldn't put a higher weight on my opinion than on your own townie or null vibe. Well, unless I'm cop claiming a scum result or something. Which is highly unlikely on day 1.
DaBigCheez wrote:Because I totally think Snark's the kind of guy who could pull off a stunt like "let teammate get vigkilled by your drone D1, to make yourself a "confirmed town" for not going against it, then pick off everyone while laughing about it."
Darn it, you're right. I guess in the future I'll have to restrict myself to the kind of nebulous "I think we get more information from X" that had been annoying me instead of actually saying what the information is. Now I'm glad you caught that before anyone answered it.Chickenfish wrote:This I don't like, for the same reason as I liked your previous post. You're theorising about the future too much, in the same way that you (I believe, correct me if I'm wrong) did about how we should treat claims/counterclaims. Whoever we lynch today, keep in mind we'll actually have 2 deaths tomorrow to analyse - the second of which would hold more weight than the first. Here you're either trying to get town to tell you who to NK/push tomorrow's lynch on or you're unwittingly helping scum find these things out. I implore people not to answer these sorts of questions.KrO2 wrote:For anyone who hasn't voted yet or wants to consider switching from wam to matt96*,
I was thinking earlier about what we could find out from a Matt lynch, and I remembered one point earlier where he discounted the possibility that any of the most active players could be scum. So if he turns out scum, then aside from being pretty good evidence in favor of Tim being town, it's also evidence in favor of one of Chickenfish/Snark/Mostlynormal being scum. And since there'd only be one scum left, and I'm still fairly convinced of "if Chickenfish then fearless," then that leaves Snark and Mostlynormal. This absolutely is not definitive of course, so someone let me know if I'm stretching too much. I'd prefer someone not mentioned above so we can try to avoid conflict of interest, but I'm not about to tell people not to post.
If Matt turns out to be town, that's less information for us, but since we're looking for two scum in that case I'd start by reexamining the fearless-Chickenfish connection to see where it is on the spectrum from "damning evidence" to "not actually there," or maybe by just moving to the player who looked next scummiest.
Everybody: What specifically do you think we can and can't infer from finding out that matt96 is scum/town? That wam is? Answering this will help us decide which lynch gives us more information.
*Except wingedocelot. When your vote was on him I think it was the scummiest you've looked all game. Even aside from what Chickenfish said, voting based on authority seems weird; just because you think I'm town doesn't mean you should trust my opinion on who's scum. And you certainly shouldn't put a higher weight on my opinion than on your own townie or null vibe. Well, unless I'm cop claiming a scum result or something. Which is highly unlikely on day 1.
Note: this doesn't mean don't put it forward as an argument that you think is important. But asking the questions just for the sake of theory discussion? We're well past that.
On a final note, we're in a really good position no matter what happens tonight. Better for me not to elaborate until D2, but I just thought I'd put this here to avoid looking like scum backpedalling if wam flips town.
t1mm01994 wrote:I request a 24 hour extension of the day, to make my living this day any worth.
I just had to post another huge giant wall of text in Werewolf, and I really haven't currently got the focus to pump out 2 giant walls that soon after eachother.
careyhammer wrote:can I still play?
Chickenfish wrote:Barn the hell outta this whole post
Mostlynormal wrote:Chickenfish wrote:Barn the hell outta this whole post
What the heck does that mean?
DaBigCheez wrote:Because I totally think Snark's the kind of guy who could pull off a stunt like "let teammate get vigkilled by your drone D1, to make yourself a "confirmed town" for not going against it, then pick off everyone while laughing about it."
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