2 of 4 Newbie Game OVER! Town Flawless Victory!

[Snark]

However, As I don't want a NL I will sacrfice myself and switch back to matt if its going to be a draw.

Why the crap would you sacrifice yourself? I'm pretty sure that makes no sense for anyone of any faction to say or do. Unless you actually expect everyone to believe you and ignore this thread for the next few hours thinking "Oh yeah, we're fine. wam guaranteed that he'd make sure we weren't at a tie at deadline."

Unless you're trying to convince us all that you're a vanilla townie, and you don't value your own life. Therefore leading us to trust you and unvote you.

Just realized: I'm pretty sure wam would've power-claimed by now if he was a town PR or scum. He posted at least one post when he was at 4 votes (and needed only 1 more to be lynched).

tl;dr - I really don't think wam is scum. If he is, he's foolish scum who's been taking very large gambits by not power-claiming earlier. Then again, he could guessed that no one would hammer him so early in the day.

Hmmm...

[wam]

Basically i figured if it was a draw between me and mostlynormal, someone would change so that I got lynched so it might as well be me changing my vote as I knew I would be online. I would really rather not do it though!

[t1mm01994]

wam: Never. Ever. Suicide in Mafia exceptions set aside. This is a newbie game, so I'm allowed to talk tactics (the first one to even point at me for this will be slapped with a piece of paper).
Basically, if you wish to prove a point, you're usually better off providing arguments. Even if your case seems lost, it really isn't, if your arguments are good enough, and you bring em well enough. These arguments may both be arguments why you should live, or why $otherperson should die, even when $otherperson hasn't got nearly as many votes as you. If >50% decide you should die, you'll die; no need to help that along, you might as well set out your testament, in which you lay out your suspicions with reasons, so that the other townies don't have to search for it anymore. Huge part of someone dying is finding ties and accusing people based on that, so if you're helpful with that, that's a good thing for town.

If for whatever reason you want to die without proving a point, you're generally doing it wrong. The only way I can see that would work is if you're a jester (in that case, it's a perfectly fine case to suicide, I'd even encourage it), or if you've got a n-shot lynch immunity (see PYPoké). In those cases you're fine, else, just go with the flow. You're usually better off finding some charge from somewhere and throwing it at a random person than letting yourself die. As town: a random person has a >0% chance of being scum, while you are certainly town. Therefore, you're better off killing someone random than yourself. If people kill you for the bad reason, nothing's lost, as you would have died if you didn't, too. If it turns out to be a good reason, congratulations! You might just have hit scum, and saved your ass. As scum: You don't want to die, as 1 member dying is usually a huge blow to the team. Thinking up some charges is either a way for your team to jump on them and bus you (you're already dead), or jump on the accused and kill him (you're saved).

tl;dr (which, quite honestly, would be a pity): Fight for your life, even when the deal seams to be sealed.

Apart from that, huge-ass FoS on Snark for giving a TON of reasons to lynch someone that he didn't even have in his 3way vote, even though nearly all reasons given are from before the 3way vote stage.

[wam]

Ok then. I was working basis that a lynch (even if its me) gives the rest of town information, which would be useufl for them scum hunting later in the game. Therefore I remove my offer, someone else will have to break the deadlock.

Ok then I have made several arguments about mostlynormal but I will try and sum them up in one post.

Summary of the reasons I find MN scummy.

1) the rapid unvote on his pressure vote when Snark "bandwaggonned it".
2) Builds a case against Snark based on mis quoting him.
3) Attacks Wingedocelots 3 scum person strategy, despite him posting a scum to town list (which is pretty similar) earlier in the game.
4) Votes Wingedocelots based on them not following their own strategy after they explained themsleves and changed their vote back to me.
5) (probably the weakest of them)I reckon that one of snark, chickenfish and mostlynormal are scum for that whole first bit and I think that mostlynormal is the most likely to be scum out of the 3.

Also Tim i agree that in most of the games I have played with Snark so far he has appeared scummy. Although in this game hes not appearing scummy to me, not sure if thats because im getting used to it or his playing style has changed.

[t1mm01994]

Meh, the episode in the beginning was.. Strange, to say the least and this most recent vote for MN seems quite odd, looking at how it's not on his 3man attack according to the list there. Apart from that, not that much. Less than usual... However, in every finished game he was in he turned town. So yeah, not much to say there yet..
(no discussion on unfinished games)

[Mostlynormal]

Wow guys, wow. I never "voted" for anyone in this dumb three person vote system. People seemed to be on me about not supplying three people so I reposted the exact same three people I had been suspicious of earlier: wam, matt and Snark. If you didn't want to take the effort of looking back before, at least make that effort before you start bandwagonning on me. Wam and matt were on the first scumlist I made, and I added Snark shortly after. So um, just wow. I can understand T1mm a bit since he just got here and probably read hastily, and I beleive wam gave different reasons before but... just wow. I don't like Snark's vote at all. And he's just making up reasons to lynch me. Look at this:

backing down and unvoting wam when it started looking pretty sure that wam was going to be lynched (possibly because he knew that wam would flip town tomorrow).

Yeah, because as scum I'm going to avoid lynching a townie at all costs. Huge FoS: snark.

1) the rapid unvote on his pressure vote when Snark "bandwaggonned it".
2) Builds a case against Snark based on mis quoting him.
3) Attacks Wingedocelots 3 scum person strategy, despite him posting a scum to town list (which is pretty similar) earlier in the game.
4) Votes Wingedocelots based on them not following their own strategy after they explained themsleves and changed their vote back to me.
5) (probably the weakest of them)I reckon that one of snark, chickenfish and mostlynormal are scum for that whole first bit and I think that mostlynormal is the most likely to be scum out of the 3.

1) If you don't like my explanation that's fine, but there's nothing more for me to address here.
2) Hmm, was it a misquote? That's strange, I don't beleive anybody's claimed that he didn't say those things, not even Snark himself.
3) It's totally different. A scum/town list is useful content that lets others know your opinion of other players. Her strategy was making a weird voting system that allowed scum to be wishy-washy
4) Yeah, they explained themselves. Should I be suspicious of you because of your point number one? After all, I "explained myself." I can understand why you don't entirely beleive it, try to understand why I don't entirely beleive WO

Anyway, since I'd like to not get lynched I'll switch my vote back to wam. I'm not as sure about the WO/wam thing as I was before but I figure wam's the scummiest who's likely to be lynched at this point (*cough* want to lynch Snark *cough*).

Unvote

Vote:wam

[KrO2]

Toward the beginning I remember thinking Mostlynormal was looking kind of scummy. (Of course, at that time I was trying to choose between Snark and Chickenfish, possibly with a side of Mostlynormal.) But more recently I became unsure, mainly because of the increased numbers of scummy looking people some of whom looked scummier than Mostlynormal. Tim just came from reading through the thread, so the earlier posts are closer from his point of view. I'm not sure exactly what I'm trying to say with that, but it seemed relevant.

wam: You've called Mostlynormal's unvote scummy several times. I think at least two of them were after the explanation backed up by the pokemafia reference. Were you not convinced by that? You could at least acknowledge its existence.
Also, could you please quote where MN had a case against Snark based on a misquote? I didn't see it with a cursory quick check back, but I did find an accusation of MN having a case against Chickenfish based on a misquote. (Inside the spoiler in this long post.) Did Mostlynormal ever respond to that?

I didn't find the not liking wingedocelot's strategy to be scummy. For that matter, neither did wingedocelot. And (correct me if I'm wrong) the reason people decided town to scum lists are bad is because they name a "Most Towny" aka "best night-kill target." Listing the three scummiest does not have that problem.

Even voting wingedocelot because of her vote off the three makes some sense. I wouldn't have done that, because I was saying from the beginning of that episode that we shouldn't be trying to hold people to their lists, but since WO was I could see the point of view of why a townie might vote her for the apparent hypocrisy.
Or that was what I was going to say. Rereading wingedocelot's proposal, the list was for "I would lynch any of these people," preventing them from backing down, not "I would not lynch anyone who is not on this list." Which makes MN look worse for attacking WO for voting someone not on the list*. And of course MN was the other person saying that we wouldn't be able to hold people to their lists of three. So my opinion changed a bit while writing this post.

*I don't think this applies to Tim's FOS on Snark. As he said, that FOS was because if Snark found those reasons convincing, he should have put MN on his list. Which is a different accusation from Mostlynormal's against wingedocelot.

I still don't think MN is our scummiest potential target, though. I'd feel happier with a wam or Matt lynch. (I think MN passed up fearless in my mental scum list, though, for now.)

Mildly unrelated tactics question: if town is about to unknowingly lynch a townie and that player manages to force a tie and NL, is that really a good idea? It'd leave town in the same position the next morning except minus one other townie, and scum should be able to hit someone whose death wouldn't clear the former lynch target. A townie's win condition doesn't include them being alive at the end.

[KrO2]

Almost deadline. I was kind of expecting more people online.
Unofficial vote count, unless I've miscounted somehow:
Mostlynormal: 2 (Snark, Tim)
wam: 4 (Chickenfish, Mostlynormal, wingedocelot, matt96)
matt96: 2 (KrO2, wam)

So it looks like wam is about to be lynched. I feel like if Tim had had more time to convince us, it might have been Mostlynormal instead. I was considering hammering, just in case I miscounted the votes and wam could switch his vote to MN and tie it, but that was probably just me being paranoid. Anyway, I'll be on until deadline just in case of shenanigans.

Also: apparently I'm voting with wam. If he turns out scum, I hope nobody is shortsighted enough to consider that scummy, but then, if he turns out scum we're at 6/1 and have almost won anyway.

[KrO2]

Yup. Miscounted. wam's vote was already on Mostlynormal, making that last post pretty much completely wrong. Feel free to ignore it if you want to.

[Lataro]

Votals:

MN - 3- (T1mm01994, Snark, wam)
matt96 - 2 - (KrO2, fearless)
wam - 4 - (MN, Chickenfish, wingedocelot, matt96)

wam has been lynched.

It is now Night One. This will last no longer than 96 hours.

[Lataro]

Wam was the mafia goon.

Day two starts now. Eight alive, five to lynch.

[t1mm01994]

Vote analysis incoming! I think the 4 voters on wam can be cleared for the moment, as that would be... Quite gutsy, and it was avoidable. I know I myself am town, and wam is dead. In a 9 player game, that leaves KrO2, fearless, and Snark, and for the lot of you, me as well. I know I haven't been quite readable/reading so far, so I'd like the activity to continue as it was D1, so that I can get reads everywhere.

For now, my largest suspicion is still on Snark for that... somewhat strange vote on MN. There's reasons enough, and I dare believe they're all valid, but most of htem weren't interpreted as signs of scumminess before for as much as I can see. I'm getting very little input from fearless too, so I'm quite happy with a lynch there. Not much is said, and that is said doesn't have the highest content percentage among posts.. I'm somewhat fine with KrO2 atm.

I'd like to bank on D1 as little as possible, but when I do and I get something wrong, please correct me.

[wingedocelot]

Brilliant, 7v1! Surely we can't lose from here.
Wam had me completely convinced he was town at the end as well. I don't think I'm that great at reading people yet. I was all ready to apologise to him for my mistake almost guaranteeing his lynch.

As for my now appearing to be his partner, all I can say is I am vanilla town. I am not going to defend myself strenuously because if everyone is focused on me, they will not be looking for the real culprit.
Also, if the decision is I should be lynched, I am putting it down on paper now that I will not claim a power role because I do not have one. That may help scum narrow down who has the PR's, but we are in such an overwhelming lead at the moment I don't think it matters.

Lastly, with no NK I'm assuming that means we have someone with a protecting role and they happened to protect the person targeted? Congratulations to whoever managed that!

[KrO2]

Wait, there was no nightkill? That's awesome! We're at 7v1 instead of 6v1, obviously, plus it tells us we have a doctor or jailkeeper, and one who was successful. Congratulations to whoever pulled that off.
And apparently we get to know wam's role. Too bad he wasn't the role cop, but at least we get to be warned that the mafia didn't lose that.

I don't think we can ignore the possibility that scum might have voted wam altogether, but I agree with T1mm that it's much more likely that they didn't. With a few caveats. Some people voted wam out of self-defense, notably Mostlynormal.

D1, I thought that if fearless is scum them Chickenfish probably also was. Now that we know there's only one left, that's some evidence in her favor. What does seem off, though, is that I don't know why she voted Matt. Seriously, try to find it. We get one short post listing three names and saying real life got in the way but she'll explain later. It would be unfair to consider that by itself a scumtell, but then she never gave the reasons. Instead, the same thing happened again. Then the deadline was extended, and still no statement of the reasons for voting. I was going to go back and try to find people's stated reasons, but then I failed.

wam said in most of his posts (I think that's even true literally. Like, an actual majority.) from the beginning up until he was lynched that he was suspicious of Mostlynormal. Mainly, he was harping on that unvote from way back at the beginning, even after the explanation. Do you think we can take this to mean MN is town? I suppose it could be just distancing, but I'd like to get some opinions on this.

T1mm, "most of those reasons weren't interpreted as signs of scumminess" isn't completely true. Voting the person with the most votes was one of your reasons in the post immediately preceding, and there had been some discussion earlier about how towny townies should want to appear. I think the only completely new thing Snark accused MN of in there was "unvoting wam when it started looking pretty sure that wam was going to be lynched (possibly because he knew that wam would flip town tomorrow)." Which, in retrospect, is an alarmingly bad reason.
I was going to say that Tim drew some negative attention by collecting votes on MN late on D1, but it might be more informative to look at who went along with it.
Snark, response? Basically, what's your opinion of MN and how much did the result on wam affect it?

[Lataro]

Damn me and posting start of day from the phone. Force of habit, it is a mistake that will not be repeated.

[wingedocelot]

So I know I'm not the most trustable townie right now but l went back through the 3way voting progress and found this (go back and check if you don't believe me):

When wam voted (he was the 6th/7th to do so depending if you count MN's one vote) the votes stood at:

4 – wam
3 – fearless
3 –Snark (if you count MN's one vote)
2 - Matt96
2 – CF
1 – MN
1 – carey
1 – WO

Yet wam decided to vote Carey, MN and matt96. Wam was in big danger of being the top of the lynch list and yet CHOSE NOT TO VOTE FEARLESS OR SNARK, who were holding the second most amount of votes. I don't know why he wouldn't do that. Voting either or both was the best way to prevent him being on top of the lynch list.

Then fearless voted next after wam and didn’t vote for wam. Fearless chose to vote to vote for matt96, Snark, and carey bringing the votes to a three way tie between matt96, wam and snark. Also, at that point fearless would've believed she was last to vote because mostlynormal had previously refrained from giving three names.

Snark could also be a suspect because he didn't vote wam either and wam didn't vote for him, but he voted first so didn't have such power over the list.

Slight FoS: Snark
Massive FoS: fearless

This is only based on the 3-way voting, I haven't found time yet to look through everything else.

[fearless]

Look I had a busy week and when the "3 names" strategy was proposed I didn't have a lot of time to go back and re-read the posts because of the time pressure, so I just picked the 3 that I wouldn't /mind/ lynching - which might have been different to who I would have picked had I read through everything more thoroughly.

I didn't go for carey in case he got replaced (and i did state that i wouldn't vote for him if a replacement was possible because he's most likely town). didn't go for snark because, even though he went after CF (whom I believe is town), snark did have some good (and frequent) posts so in that sense, more valuable than matt. I didn't like matt's pseudo-analysis and at that point I hadn't suspected wam at all because I didn't pay much attention to him.

right now, people on my suspects list (from a process of elimination):

Kro2

- assuming that everyone who voted wam's town
- i know myself and snark are town
- timm is likely to be town because he replaced carey

So going back:
Kro2 votes for matt and indirectly pushes for matt's lynch. when he sees that people are going for wam, Kro2 asks

what happens if there is no majority?

- thereby already planning for the eventuality of there being a tie between wam and possibly matt.

For anyone who hasn't voted yet or wants to consider switching from wam to matt96*,
I was thinking earlier about what we could find out from a Matt lynch, and I remembered one point earlier where he discounted the possibility that any of the most active players could be scum. So if he turns out scum, then aside from being pretty good evidence in favor of Tim being town, it's also evidence in favor of one of Chickenfish/Snark/Mostlynormal being scum. And since there'd only be one scum left, and I'm still fairly convinced of "if Chickenfish then fearless," then that leaves Snark and Mostlynormal. This absolutely is not definitive of course, so someone let me know if I'm stretching too much. I'd prefer someone not mentioned above so we can try to avoid conflict of interest, but I'm not about to tell people not to post.

Again, he brings up the idea of switching from wam to matt and starts listing what we can gain from a matt lynch. In the next sentence, he circumstantially FOS's CF & snark who have been the most active players, as well as MN who has indicated that he didn't trust wam.

Next, I vote for matt.

Shortly after that, wam votes for matt but then unvotes when he sees the matt-bandwagon isn't building momentum. Votes for MN instead. Then MN votes for wam (probably to save himself) - at this point, Kro2 could switch and force a tie - but that would be a little bit /too/ obvious. And then he said he thought about hammering wam - why didn't he? Earlier he said he was ok with /either/ a matt lynch or a wam lynch.

So it looks like wam is about to be lynched. I feel like if Tim had had more time to convince us, it might have been Mostlynormal instead. I was considering hammering, just in case I miscounted the votes and wam could switch his vote to MN and tie it, but that was probably just me being paranoid. Anyway, I'll be on until deadline just in case of shenanigans.

sounds like a desperate/hopeful scum buddy.

I know this doesn't paint a good light on me at all, because It would just come across as me attacking kro2 out of desperation - and there is a good chance i'm completely off the mark. I realise I haven't been very helpful and have said a lot of wrong things. But I really am town. And I guess the only difference between kro2 and myself is that I have not tried to prevent a wam lynch, whereas kro2 has been subtly trying to stop it without seeming too obvious (at least that's how I see it)

[t1mm01994]

Oh wow. Good catch there fearless, on the "If Tim had had more time".
I'm still considering what the F happened there. I swoop in reading roughly 1/4th of all posts, vote for someone because I thought he was scummiest, and get followed by 2, and a 3rd indicates that I could have convinced more. It seems new people like bandwagons. Let's try this.
Vote: KrO2

[Snark]

I WILL post major analysis later. Super busy IRL at the moment. For now, let's find out about the lack of NK.

Now that the mafia goon is dead, does the mafia role cop have
1. A NK only
2. A role-cop ability only
3. Both a NK and a role-cop ability
4. A choice between using a NK and a role-cop ability?

I'm pretty sure this isn't specified in the rules.

[Mostlynormal]

Vote: Snark

Because he's the person I really wanted to lynch yesterday, for his bandwagon vote. That said, my vote on wam was not just a "self-defense vote" I did beleive that wam was more likely to be scum than most, just maybe not more likely than Snark.

Wingedocelot's first post pings me heavily. The reason I'm holding back from voting is that she's new and I can easily see how it could be a newbie town thing. For clarification: "I was convinced he was town" meant you were going to unvote them but the deadline happened first, right? Because keeping a vote on someone who you think is town is incredibly scummy in almost all situations. Also, as advice to you whether you're newbie town, or scum: please stop mentioning that you're the most suspected. It's making my scumdar go haywire. All that show us is that you might have a reason to beleive the suspicion is justified.

[matt96]

The Mafia Role Cop is allowed to both submit the nightkill and perform his Role Cop action, no matter whether the Goon is dead or not; see this thread, among others, for discussion on the matter. Most of this discussion took place when the Roleblocker was still present in the setup

this leads me to believe that we either have a jail-keeper or doctor or both, and at least one of them was successful last night, however, the bad news is that if we continue to lynch and they aren't successful again, we are on the track to mylo, which may have been what the remaining mafia wants, or perhaps they want any doctors/jail-keepers to out themselves, we have no way of knowing what they wanted, it could simply be wine, in which case, I am not doing anything to help, does anyone with more experience want to comment on which possibility they find most likely, because I have no idea.

[Snark]

All right. First off, thank you Matt for the info.

So there are a couple possibilities for why no NK happened last night:
1. Scum withheld because they wanted jailkeepers and doctors to claim
2. A jailkeeper targeted scum or the NK target.
3. A doctor targeted the NK target.
4. Combo of 2 and 3.

If scum withheld, I'd guess that the scum is not a newbie. Most newbies, imo, wouldn't realize that there could be a benefit to not using their NK.

Since we're at 7/1 which is a sweet setup for town, and there was no NK last night, I'm gonna claim.

Role Claim: Jailkeeper
Target last night: Chickenfish

What I deduced from that.
1. Scum withheld their kill last night or
2. CF is scum or
3. CF was the NK target or
4. A doctor is in play and targeted the NK target

We have two choices now: A) Lynch CF today and I'll choose another target (pretend it's KrO2 for example) tonight or B) I'll target CF again tonight.
If we lynch CF and he's scum, we win.
If we lynch CF and he's town and someone dies tonight, then KrO2 is confirmed town tomorrow.
If we lynch CF and he's town and no one dies tonight, then KrO2 is possible scum.
If we lynch non-CF, I'll target CF tonight. If there's no kill, then CF is possible scum.
If we lynch non-CF, I'll target CF tonight, If there's a kill tonight, then CF is confirmed town tomorrow.

You all need to consider the possibility of me being scum now so here's my defense against that:
I'm claiming when no one else has yet. If I'm scum, then the chances of there being a jailkeeper in this game are 1/2. Would I take the chance of instantly losing this game because someone else can counter-claim me? (Ok it wouldn't be instant, but I'd be lynched either today or tomorrow if there's a counter-claim).

So here's my suggestion. Let's do one of the following things:
1. Lynch CF today. I'll target whomever you want me to tonight (KrO2 until I hear otherwise from a majority of people).
2. Lynch non-CF today, I'll target CF again tonight.

[KrO2]

This is excellent news. I was hoping something like that would happen; maybe we can get a perfect victory. I'm inclined to trust the claim at first glance, even though I was suspicious of Snark before. Mainly that's because a false claim now would be really risky. Here's the possibilities as I see them.
1) Snark is scum, Chickenfish is town. This would be a really dumb move for Snark to make. He might get Chickenfish lynched, but then he'd look all kinds of scummy afterward. Maybe he could withhold the kill to frame whomever he claims to block. Actually that's possible under other cases as well.
2) Snark is town, Chickenfish is town. This is the one we have to worry about. Maybe there's a doctor who was the one who guessed right, or maybe the mafia targeted Chickenfish. Either way, it's unpleasantly possible for them to both be town. Please someone convince me this is unlikely.
3) Snark is town, Chickenfish is scum. That's what we hope for. If we can decide the second possibility is unlikely enough, we can just lynch one then the other and win.
Basically, this claim means Snark isn't my most scummy candidate anymore. Unless someone else is the real jailkeeper, which I think has a slightly better than even chance, in which case they should totally claim.

I was going to make a self-defense post, but this claim kind of changes things. If anyone still thinks I'm a higher priority than Snark/CF, I'm posting a few points below.
-Asking what happens if there is no majority. I wasn't the first or the only to ask that, and I don't think asking it is scummy at all. That does vary between games, right? Seeing that there's a possibility of a tie doesn't mean I think it's likely or desirable. If you think I could manipulate people into tying the vote without me voting last, I'm flattered but I don't see how that's possible.
-That FoS on the most active players was assuming Matt were to come back scum. I thought there might be a weak implication that they could be scum in Matt saying that they couldn't be. Since, remember, I thought he was slightly more likely to be scum than wam was. Chickenfish convinced me that posts like that shouldn't be made because it tells scum in advance what I'd be inferring, but I did think (tentatively--I was asking whether people agreed with it) that Matt being scum would make the most active players a little more likely to be scum.
-Why I didn't hammer wam. Mostly sheer Pavlovian association. I remember in several of the games I've read hammering was considered scummy, though I guess that wouldn't apply if the day's discussion had already pretty much ended. Also partly because it was unnecessary and I thought Matt was the more likely scum. I did feel pretty stupid, though, holding that hammer up there and not dropping it, so I guess if that situation happens again I might do it.
-About Tim convincing people to vote Mostlynormal. I wasn't really worrying about how it made me look, but yes. He swooped in and voted, and got followed. I wasn't sure what to think about that; I considered it more likely to be Tim being convincing than Tim being scummy, but yes, if the day had been longer more people might have voted MN.

[Chickenfish]

Firstly - I'm Vanilla Town.
Terrible claim, Snark. Why did you feel like that was necessary? All we learn from it is that you're going to die tonight. I'm happy to believe the claim for now, as it seems like an insanely risky move for the 1 remaining scum to pull (that said, if there is a jailer out there, you really should have claimed by now, but it's not too late). A few things though:
Snark, don't defend yourself ahead of time. The best way for us to have caught scum would be if somebody tried to make the argument you were falseclaiming. We all know that's so unlikely, so anybody attacking you would have been suspect (we want people to be suspect at this stage).
The main question, I suppose, is whether you jailed me as an attempt to protect me or to role block me? If it was to protect me, it's because you thought I was town and a likely NK target, in which case your claim hasn't helped anybody.
If you think I'm scum and am trying to get me lynched, that seems like a careless play.
Which of these options look any good to you as a result of your claim:
a) lynch me. If I'm scum, congrats. (ok so I suppose this one looks pretty good, but it's not really a result of your claim, and I also don't think you jailed me as a roleblock attempt.)
b) lynch me. I'm not scum. Reasonable chance you get NKed, town aren't much further except we lost a PR.
c)i) don't lynch me. Really you have to target me again in case I'm scum. Then scum NK you, and I suppose I'm cleared? I'm not really sure. We could never be sure you targeted me, and as such town aren't any further.
ii) don't lynch me. Really you have to target me again in case I'm scum. Then scum NK you but it fails because you get doc'd, then either doc has to claim to clear me (please don't), or it looks like you've RBed me again and I get lynched.

Can you explain to us why you claimed, please? You've actually just spread a whole bunch of wine and told scum who to NK.

As for the potential of scum having withheld a NK, that would be a very newbie mistake. With the ratio so far out of their favour, it'd be a terrible play to give up a kill just for the sake of hoping somebody was implicated - ESPECIALLY seeing as they may have given a cop an extra night. I'm going to assume (pretty safely I think) that I was targetted. As for why - possibly to implicate you (Snark) or WO, or because WO is the remaining scum.

However, KrO2 is just no good in my eyes. Saying he was hoping for a claim in his most recent post, plus his first post of the day just reads as trying way too hard to sound like a towny.

Vote: KrO2

[Snark]

@CF
I targeted you because I thought you were scum. Not because I was trying to protect you. Not that it really matters now.

What my claim accomplishes is this:
A) If you're scum
A1) If we lynch you, we win
A2) If I keep targeting you every night, then there will be no NKs and no role cops (we won't be able to tell the second part)
B) If you're town
B1) If we lynch you, then I'll target someone else. If there's no NKs, then my target is possible scum
B2) If we lynch you, then I'll target someone else. If there is a NK, then my target is confirmed town
B3) If we don't lynch you, then I'll keep targeting you. If there's no NKs, then you're possible scum.
B4) If we don't lynch you, then I'll keep targeting you. If there's a NK, then you're confirmed town.

At worst, I'll get NK'd which will make someone else (most likely you) confirmed town tomorrow.
At best, there will be no NK's, and we'll identify scum based on who I'm targeting.
At medium, scum will withhold their NK to spread wine. This isn't even that bad, because 7v1 with only lynches and no NKs is a much better setup for town than 7v1 with NKs and lynches.

If CF is not lynched today, I will target him tonight.
If CF is lynched today, I will target KrO2 (just chose him as he's leading lynch votes at the moment) tonight.

I'm going to do a read through, and see how I feel about a KrO2/wam team. Right now, I'm not yet convinced of his scumminess.

[Snark]

I just did another read-through and here are my scum team picks:
wam/KrO2 or wam/wingedocelot

Both of them behaved in ways that made them possible scum-buddies. I'd be happy with lynching either of them today. I'd also be happy with lynching CF for the obvious reason that I roleblocked him last night and there was no NK (Don't get mad at me for this statement, CF. I already outlined the other possible implications of this in my two previous posts.)

Happy with their lynch
KrO2 - wingedocelot - ChickenFish

Neutral feelings
matt96 - fearless - t1mm01994

Not happy with their lynch
Mostlynormal

Yes I know I voted for MN yesterday, but wam put him at the top of his scum list. I really doubt wam would've tried that hard to distance.

[Chickenfish]

Snark, my point is that most of the options you outlined had any requirement for claiming. My question was how did claiming actually help town? You could have blocked me again tonight, then if there was once again no NK you could have claimed. As things stand, I could be town or scum, it's hard to determine which without lynching me/waiting for another night's actions, and now you've got a huge target on your head. I'm just saying you jumped the gun and spread a bunch of wine. We were in a ridiculous position because of power, and now we're only in a good position because of numbers. Obviously there's nothing wrong with being in a good position, but it's not as good as it was.
I'm happy with a KrO2 or WO lynch too, and understand that you've created a situation where you pretty much have to lynch me today or tomorrow...

[Chickenfish]

Also, publicly announcing who you intend to use your ability on is just dumb, for reasons I'm sure you can figure out if you think about it.

[Snark]

Other reasons why I claimed:
1. I didn't want MN and Tim to waste today away voting and FoSing me today
2. I didn't want to risk getting NK'd tonight before giving as much helpful info as possible

And btw, we don't have to lynch you today or tomorrow. If there's no NK's tonight, it could just mean that scum is trying to frame you.

With no NKs to worry about, I'd be happy to lynch KrO2 today and wingedocelot tomorrow. Even if they're both town, we're at 5/1. We can then lynch you.

If you're also town and scum kills me the same night, then we're at 3/1 (with a confirmed townie from my investigation on that night). Still a distinct possibility for a win for town.

But I'm guessing that the remaining scum is either KrO2, wingedocelot, or you. So we won't ever need to worry about getting to 3/1.

[Snark]

Also, publicly announcing who you intend to use your ability on is just dumb, for reasons I'm sure you can figure out if you think about it.

It's just intelligent, for reasons I'm sure you can figure out if you think about it.

Either someone besides me die, and my announced target becomes confirmed town.
OR
I die, and my target is confirmed town.
OR
No one dies, and my target is possible scum.

If I don't public announce my target and I die, good info dies with me. I'm not going to keep my target secret with the hopes of hitting the mafia NK target each time. That's horrible odds.

[fearless]

remind me, why do you think CF is scummy?

I'm ok with either a Kro2 or a wo lynch today

[Snark]

My yesterday reasons were mentioned yesterday. Sorry, but I'm not going to rehash them all again.

My main reason now is that I targeted him and there was no NK last night.

[Snark]

What's today's deadline?

[fearless]

so you didn't think it was likely that the remaining mafia wanted to NK the player who
1) has consistently been helpful
2) was one of the first to vote wam yesterday
3) posts a lot
?

[Snark]

I think it's possible that he was the target, not the NKer. This will be confirmed tonight if there is a NK.

[KrO2]

We can't count on no NK's unless Snark is blocking the right person. And if it's possible that Chickenfish was the target and not the scum, then we can't count on that.

CF, we can't be sure that Snark dies tonight. Even if he blocks the wrong person, scum might withhold the kill, or we might have a doctor. If we do, Snark is their most obvious person to protect. Though they might not want to, so scum don't predict whom they'll protect in advance. Anyway, the mafia, assuming they aren't blocked, might decide they prefer a higher chance of killing non-Snark to a lower chance of killing Snark.

Yes, I was hoping for a claim today. Was I seriously the only one? A claim like this makes it much more likely that Chickenfish or Snark is scum. Unfortunately it isn't a cop claim; that would pretty effectively end the game, but even if this one doesn't end the game it can make scum choose between not using their kill or making confirmed townies.

About the possible non-CF scum. I suppose the technically correct strategy based on what Tim said yesterday would be to start accusing wingedocelot, since she's the other person people seem to be suspecting. Unfortunately, I still think she's town. People can argue about the approval voting system, but without it we would have had votes on many more people, and it would have been harder to reach a lynch acceptable to nearly everyone. Especially if you believe her when she said she thought the day was almost over; if that's true, scum wouldn't have tried to do something about it. Scum would have sat back and laughed.
I'd prefer a wingedocelot lynch to a me lynch, because I could be wrong, but I'm not about to start arguing for it.

Given that semiconfirmed townie Snark blocked Chickenfish because he thought CF was scum, (That's all true, right? I'm not overstating the semiconfirmed bit?) does anyone think it's more likely that mafia targeted CF than that Snark was right?

[t1mm01994]

I'm... Honestly confused.
Unvote
1: Snark's quote is genuine. A scum claim at this time would be pretty odd.
2: I feel Chickenfish is town, too.
3: I've got a vague feeling there's a doctor in this game. I will not say why, I will not say why I'm saying this. In fact, it's probably best to disregard.
4: Someone is scum, either way.

Now let's stop making sorry excuses for lists, and actually post useful stuff for the first time here.
For people who would want CF dead: MN is not looking good, but he's town according to earlier results. Snark is the other one with a motive, but well, he's town too according to earlier text.
No one else really has a motive. From this, we can conclude one thing: There's a scum in here, and he's playing us.

[Lataro]

What's today's deadline?

This upcoming Saturday afternoon or evening.

[Mostlynormal]

Unvote

Vote: KrO2

For suggesting that we lynch Chickenfish then Snark. That's really, really dangerous. If we were to lynch Chickenfish and he turned up town, it's much more likely that he was the NK target than that Snark happened to be lucky risk taking scum. Really our only choice is to trust Snark unless he suddenly turns really really scummy, because we can't risk lynching a power role just to test for a claim that is almost definitely not false.

It's certainly very likely that Chickenfish was the NK target last night. However, I think we should lynch him tommorrow if the NK doesn't go through. The best case scenario would be he's scum and we win, the worst case would be we get rid of our most wine-covered townie and prevent a kill at the same time. Along those same lines, if there is a doctor in this game they should withhold, just for tonight, to avoid more wine being spilled.

[Snark]

Along those same lines, if there is a doctor in this game they should withhold, just for tonight, to avoid more wine being spilled.

This.


So glad someone else said it first. I totally agree. If CF is town and there's a doc and that doc successfully blocks a kill, they're gonna make CF look like scum when he's not.