U.S. Republican Primary

[Ghostbear]

Romney is one lucky candidate. His republican opponents always seem to do the one that he needs most at the moment. At the very least, he no longer has to spend a bunch of money in California, New York, and Texas.

[lutzj]

Romney is one lucky candidate. His republican opponents always seem to do the one that he needs most at the moment. At the very least, he no longer has to spend a bunch of money in California, New York, and Texas.

It's almost like those Republicans are in cahoots with one another in some bizarre attempt to ensure Romney wins the presidency.

[Ghostbear]

It's almost like those Republicans are in cahoots with one another in some bizarre attempt to ensure Romney wins the presidency.

Well, not going to analyze all of their actions, but at least this one is a pretty smart move on Santorum's part. The only way he would think he had a chance of winning the nomination now would be if he was completely delusional. So it's to his advantage to exit at the time where: (1) Romney is least likely to win the presidency (2) Santorum is least likely to be blamed for that, and (3) Santorum has not been hit with any embarrassing defeats that would weaken him for future runs at office.

Pennsylvania was trending in Romney's favor, and Santorum wouldn't want to end his campaign on that note, so I think (3) won out over (1) and (2) in this case. I can't see him being a credible candidate for 2016 (assuming Obama wins) or 2020 (if Obama loses), since there are a lot of republicans that stayed out of this election that appeal far more to their electorate, but this is the choice that gives him the best chance he can have for those elections.

[Vaniver]

If you thought I was being serious with that many exclamation marks AND ONES trailing my sentance, I... I don't know if you should be using the internets.

I didn't think you were being serious, but I think the subject of whether or not Paul can win should be taken seriously, and so I was serious.

[Роберт]

The only way [Santorum] would have chance of winning the nomination now would be if he was completely delusional.

This is how I read that. It made me think "wow, this forum REALLY hates GOP primary voters".

[Lucrece]

[CorruptUser]

The only way [Santorum] would have chance of winning the nomination now would be if he was completely delusional.

This is how I read that. It made me think "wow, this forum REALLY hates GOP primary voters".

Yeah, I haven't seen too many religious fanatics on these forums, and they seem to make up a huge chunk of the Republican base, so pro-Republican posters tend to be few and far between. Only Libertarians and Monetarists on these forms tend to think that the Repubs could at best be the less repulsive party at this point.

[sardia]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... pathy-gap/
This post brought up a good point that we've been debating about. That Romney is a gaffe machine with regard to his wealth or caring about poor people. Statistically, it doesn't matter, or more broadly don't let a single variable predict the whole election.

[Whammy]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/11/romneys-empathy-gap/
This post brought up a good point that we've been debating about. That Romney is a gaffe machine with regard to his wealth or caring about poor people. Statistically, it doesn't matter, or more broadly don't let a single variable predict the whole election.

Yeah, not that surprising. The gaffes are fun to watch and poke fun at for a while, make some jokes on late night shows, but that's about it. Like the article said, in the long run party identification is probably more important and most likely influences the way people perceive candidates; so people who already think Romney is out of touch will always think he's out of touch, and those who don't will always don't.

[Dark567]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/ ... slide.html

So the Ronpaul ends up winning the majority of Minnesota's delegates after losing the popular vote. Still not going to be enough to get him to win, but its surprising to see his rhetoric about using delegates to get elected at least seem to have to partially worked out.

[Chen]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/04/23/ron_paul_wins_minnesota_delegates_by_a_landslide.html

So the Ronpaul ends up winning the majority of Minnesota's delegates after losing the popular vote. Still not going to be enough to get him to win, but its surprising to see his rhetoric about using delegates to get elected at least seem to have to partially worked out.

Its nice that the system is so fucked up things like that can happen.

[kiklion]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/04/23/ron_paul_wins_minnesota_delegates_by_a_landslide.html

So the Ronpaul ends up winning the majority of Minnesota's delegates after losing the popular vote. Still not going to be enough to get him to win, but its surprising to see his rhetoric about using delegates to get elected at least seem to have to partially worked out.

Its nice that the system is so fucked up things like that can happen.

Not sure how 'fucked up' that is. From reading multiple sources there were 2 distinct events. One is that santorum received a bunch of votes and his guys said 'the Ronpaul better then romney' after Santorum dropped out, and the other that there were polls earlier that the Ronpaul did not win, but the other candidates supporters did not stay and vote in the votes that actually matter.

Unfortunately I can't give specifics about the names of each vote because it is a messed up system and it is different for each state and overall I have a headache from it.

[LaserGuy]

the Ronpaul may have just picked up 14 delegates in Iowa, giving him the majority of delegates from that state (despite coming in third) as well.

[kiklion]

the Ronpaul may have just picked up 14 delegates in Iowa, giving him the majority of delegates from that state (despite coming in third) as well.

According to

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/6 ... nventions/

which I am not sure about how reliable it is, though I can't find any reporting in text either way from any mainstream sources. Furthermore, coming from

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=c ... =iea&ion=1

the Ronpaul was a pretty close third to the second place. Either way, as the republican process is beyond me, it seems either A) Rick Santorums people voted for paul, B) Shit changed in the last 3 months (besides Rick dropping out), C) The voter fraud claims from January panned out and didn't happen this time around.

I'd say A is most likely, especially since I don't think much else has changed, and the fraud I am hoping is just made up conspiracy issues. Though with tales such as http://www.reddit.com/r/talesfromtechsu ... nd_doesnt/ I wouldn't be entirely surprised.

[Randomizer]

The primaries for five different states - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island - are today. And there's speculation that if Newt Gingrich doesn't do well that he'll drop out of the race.

Oh, and the Ronpaul is against CISPA and is calling on people to contact their congressmen in protest of the bill. There's a toll-free number to hear a recording of him speaking about it: 1-888-322-1414 (the message changes every Monday), or you can watch the YouTube video, or read the Text version on his .gov site. Go Paul!

[kiklion]

Kind of on topic, anyone know where in New York I could go to vote in the primaries? The school is usually used for federal elections but I am not sure if it would also be used for the private primaries. Actually, none of the 12 people in our house are positive where it would be.

[Tirian]

You should call your local Board of Elections. There isn't any special reason why it shouldn't be in the same place, because running primaries for "major" parties (of which there are currently five) is a role of NY state government. Evidently some polling stations are only open from noon to 9 instead of all day, though.

(Also, if any other NYers are curious, there is no Democratic presidential primary today.)

[Garm]

Kind of on topic, anyone know where in New York I could go to vote in the primaries? The school is usually used for federal elections but I am not sure if it would also be used for the private primaries. Actually, none of the 12 people in our house are positive where it would be.

There's got to be a website where you can find that stuff out...

After typing that sentence I decided to google it:

http://www.vote411.org/pollfinder.php
http://www.elections.ny.gov/
https://voterlookup.elections.state.ny.us/votersearch.aspx - This is the actual state page.

[Iulus Cofield]

In the unlikely case that Rοn Paul does shockingly well (somehow winning all five of today's primaries) would that mean he miraculously has a chance of winning the nomination? Or is it statistically impossible for anyone other than Romney winning at this point?

[Dark567]

In the unlikely case that Rοn Paul does shockingly well (somehow winning all five of today's primaries) would that mean he miraculously has a chance of winning the nomination? Or is it statistically impossible for anyone other than Romney winning at this point?

Romney currently has 536 delegates, the total number is 1,115. If the Ronpaul basically gets all the rest of the delegates, plus Gingrich's and Santorum's vote for him over Romney and unpledged delegates go for him too, he could win. So its not mathematically impossible. Statistically, based of scientific polling, it probably is.

[Iulus Cofield]

Thanks! I saw the numbers on a few sites, but I couldn't seem to find if the already pledged delegates could go to him or not. All the news sites have firmly placed their faith in the obvious winner.

[Ghostbear]

Technically, Paul can win. Practically, he can not. He has 75 delegates right now. There are 1,115 delegates remaining. 1,144 delegates are needed to become the nominee; Paul would need to win 95.9% of all remaining delegates to become the nominee, unless he could somehow convince Santorum and Gingrich to pledge their delegates to him -- a highly unlikely proposition, considering he went out of his way to attack Santorum in particular in debates and that neither of them would gain anything by doing so -- he would need to win 83.6% (Gingrich), 72.6% (Santorum) or 60.3% (Gingrich + Santorum) of the remaining delegates. Only the later is truly feasible for him. Those numbers include today's votes -- after today, the remaining delegates will be 884. If Paul wins less than 185 of today's 231 delegates (80.1%), it will be mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination on his own.

All of that said.. Paul doing well is still to his benefit. He never had any plausible expectation of becoming the nominee; his main goal has always been influencing the republican party. If he wins a decent chunk of the remaining delegates (maybe a third or so?) he'll have a sizable delegation. While not enough to change the nomination, that delegation will be enough to make an impression on republican leadership about how his ideas are potential political winners.

[LaserGuy]

In the unlikely case that Rοn Paul does shockingly well (somehow winning all five of today's primaries) would that mean he miraculously has a chance of winning the nomination? Or is it statistically impossible for anyone other than Romney winning at this point?

the Ronpaul is apparently modelling his campaign, loosely, after that of Warren G. Harding. Harding entered the convention with 39 delegates, a quarter as many as the frontrunner, and half the total number of delegates apparently unpledged. Harding won on the 10th ballot after being endorsed by the party leadership as the best compromise candidate. He later won the presidency with 60% of the popular vote.

[nitePhyyre]

How many delegates do our new insect overlords have?

I know I've said this before but I'd love to see the kerfuffle a ronpaul nomination would cause. Fun times all around

[Randomizer]

Gingrich is out. So now the Republican nomination is between Mitt Romney and the Ronpaul.

Code: Select all

Results for U.S. Republican Presidential Primaries
   State   Gingrich   Paul   Romney   Santorum         reporting
04/24   CT   10.3%   13.4%   67.5%   6.8%               100%
04/24   DE   27.1%   10.6%   56.5%   5.9%               100%
04/24   RI      6.1%   23.9%   63.2%   5.7%               100%
04/24   PA   10.5%   13.2%   58.0%   18.3%               99%
04/24   NY   12.7%   15.3%   63.3%   8.7%               95%


Source: typing "Gingrich" into Google, Google itself puts up those numbers.

My question is, with Santorum out of the race, why did he still get some of the vote?

[bentheimmigrant]

Well, he wouldn't get removed from the ballot. And there are plenty of people who don't want Romney.

[LtNOWIS]

Also, some people vote absentee, and therefore fill out their ballots weeks ahead of time.

[Diadem]

In the unlikely case that Rοn Paul does shockingly well (somehow winning all five of today's primaries) would that mean he miraculously has a chance of winning the nomination? Or is it statistically impossible for anyone other than Romney winning at this point?

the Ronpaul is apparently modelling his campaign, loosely, after that of Warren G. Harding. Harding entered the convention with 39 delegates, a quarter as many as the frontrunner, and half the total number of delegates apparently unpledged. Harding won on the 10th ballot after being endorsed by the party leadership as the best compromise candidate. He later won the presidency with 60% of the popular vote.

That only works if there are more than 1 opposing candidates left. Which there aren't. Romney is going to get a direct majority of the votes.

[jareds]

That only works if there are more than 1 opposing candidates left. Which there aren't. Romney is going to get a direct majority of the votes.

Rest assured, Romney is going to get a direct majority of the votes in the initial ballot. However, it's not mathematically impossible for there to be no majority winner in the initial ballot like you think it is. The Washington Post explains that most of Santorum's delegates remain bound to him (in the initial ballot, at any rate), because he formally "suspended" his campaign rather than "ending" it. He could nevertheless formally release his delegates, but he has not.

[Giant Speck]

Paul seems to have won the Louisiana caucus.

[zombie_monkey]

I was just reminded of this clip from the last primary, where Romney said his favorite author is L. Ron Hubbard and his favorite book is Battlefield Earth http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/182910/may-01-2007/mitt-s-favorite-book

[Роберт]

...

uh...

WOO, GO the Ronpaul!

...

[Chen]

From the article:

A federal law enforcement official familiar with DEA operations said the agency's protocols require that cells be checked each night.

Something went terribly wrong several times for him to have been in there that long. There was no water, so he had to drink his own urine. 4 days with no food or water?

Wrong thread?

[Giant Speck]

Paul seems to have snagged a majority of the delegates in both Nevada and Maine. That makes five states now where he holds a plurality of delegates.

[Waltonruler5]

Apparently bound delegates aren't bound.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtQvKUglRaU

Whoops, I accidentally in your primary.
Though I don't know, there's a good chance most people are unaware of this fact. But then again, most people are unaware of how delegates work. There's definitely tons of Paul supporters showing to these conventions.

[Steroid]

Romney officially wins the nomination.

Well, it's over, and though we had a few hopes, the GOP once again proves itself to be an old-boy's club. Romney came in second last time, so he gets to try now. McCain was second in 2000, so he got the nod in 2008. Bob Dole was a party stalwart. The only thing Romney has going for him is that he's not really old as they were.

I'm not voting for this guy. I listened to their crap about how we have to keep Obama out of the White House in 2008, and I was inspired by Sarah Palin's populist conservatism, but what this nomination says to me is that the Republican base is generally OK with big government, or have no hope of getting rid of it.

If that's the case, then it's better that Obama be re-elected. Then give Biden two terms. Maybe after that, when the government is 75% of the economy and the only way to get ahead is to become a bureaucrat, we'll wake up and nominate an actual right-winger. Meanwhile, count one in New York for Gary Johnson.

[folkhero]

So, what happens if the delegates that are bound to Mitt but support the Ronpaul just don't show up? Would their votes be counted in absentia, or would they not be counted at all? If it were the later, would there possibly be enough such delegates to keep Romney from getting a majority on the first round?

[Ghostbear]

If that's the case, then it's better that Obama be re-elected. Then give Biden two terms. Maybe after that, when the government is 75% of the economy and the only way to get ahead is to become a bureaucrat, we'll wake up and nominate an actual right-winger.

You are completely and utterly delusional if you think that's what democrats (or specifically Obama/Biden/friends) want or will try to do or will do. Seriously, take a moment and cut yourself off from the hyperbole loop.

So, what happens if the delegates that are bound to Mitt but support the Ronpaul just don't show up? Would their votes be counted in absentia, or would they not be counted at all? If it were the later, would there possibly be enough such delegates to keep Romney from getting a majority on the first round?

I don't know what the rules specifically say for it, but I can't possibly see that scenario happening in practice. Not showing up as a delegate is probably a wonderful way to kill your own political career within the party completely. Beyond that, Paul seems warm enough to Romney that he doesn't want to do anything that will directly hurt Romney's chances.

[Steroid]

If that's the case, then it's better that Obama be re-elected. Then give Biden two terms. Maybe after that, when the government is 75% of the economy and the only way to get ahead is to become a bureaucrat, we'll wake up and nominate an actual right-winger.

You are completely and utterly delusional if you think that's what democrats (or specifically Obama/Biden/friends) want or will try to do or will do. Seriously, take a moment and cut yourself off from the hyperbole loop.

I don't think it's what they want to do. I think it's what will result from them doing what I think they're most likely to do given the scenario they would face.

Point being, I want to see radical removal of government from American lives, or at least the federal government. I want them to handle the military, diplomacy, interstate squabbles, the treasury, and that's about it. I thought, after Reagan, that voting in Republicans was the way to get that. I thought that George W. Bush with his tax cuts was, if a step away from that direction, at least an acknowledgement that it is the right direction. I thought that McCain was a repudiation of that direction, but that Palin was a step back. I now think that the most likely path to that goal is to have a long string of Democrats and leftists in power, letting right-wing sentiment grow, until one day after an election (hopefully) or a revolution (more likely), the pendulum swings back so far to the right that the bureaucracy is dismantled in one blow, damning the consequences.

[Diadem]

Name one thing the US government has done in the past 100 years that is worse than the millions of deaths a revolution would cause?

Also, the most likely outcome of a revolution is a dictatorship. It is not a smaller government.