To be clear: I do not think Snark is scum, and with the information available now, I would still not think that even given that Chickenfish is town.I wrote:Here's the possibilities as I see them.
1) Snark is scum, Chickenfish is town. This would be a really dumb move for Snark to make. He might get Chickenfish lynched, but then he'd look all kinds of scummy afterward. Maybe he could withhold the kill to frame whomever he claims to block. Actually that's possible under other cases as well.
2) Snark is town, Chickenfish is town. This is the one we have to worry about. Maybe there's a doctor who was the one who guessed right, or maybe the mafia targeted Chickenfish. Either way, it's unpleasantly possible for them to both be town. Please someone convince me this is unlikely.
3) Snark is town, Chickenfish is scum. That's what we hope for. If we can decide the second possibility is unlikely enough, we can just lynch one then the other and win.
Basically, this claim means Snark isn't my most scummy candidate anymore.
I hadn't thought of having the doctor withhold. I guess that's what happens when I think only one level deep all the time. Maybe I'm just not seeing it, but are we sure that's a good idea? Supposing the doctor does block the kill, that leaves us unsure of Snark's target's alignment where we would otherwise be sure. Is that more valuable to us than keeping the townie alive? What if the NK target is Snark? If scum try to kill Snark, would we rather they fail and leave someone ambiguous, or they succeed and our jailkeeper is dead but we have someone known to be town with as much certainty as we currently have about Snark?
Questioning agreed-upon strategy might make me look bad, but I'm sure you'll forgive me if it isn't immediately obvious that the pros outweigh the cons.
I don't think a doctor being successful would create that much *more* wine than scum withholding the kill, which of course they can do at will.
I'm going to put on my conspiracy theorist hat for a moment, and ask what if Snark is scum? Suppose he sees wam being lynched and knows he's probably (>50% subjective probability estimate) going to lose from 6-1, so he takes the coin flip of risking an instant loss by counterclaim against being pretty much not doubted for the near future. If I were in that position, I would have at least considered it, though I probably wouldn't have thought of withholding the kill. OK, I'm going to take off that hat now, because tinfoil looks ridiculous on me, and restate for extra clarity that I do not think we should lynch Snark.