Resistance 5 - Spies Win! (3-1)

[wam]

retract plot power

Use Kaceoy on ChickenFish

That fast enough?

[Snark]

That fast enough?

That was pretty fast.

[Adam H]

OK, let's try to finish the mission phase before the weekend. If wingedocelot's public vote might change your vote/action, PM me to set up a contigency. The deadline is in about 24 hours, but if I don't get all the votes/actions by then I'll extend the deadline until Monday morning (in USA).

The following plot powers are being used for this mission:
Wam is using KaCEoY on ChickenFish
Snark is using KaCEoY on Trineroks

Remember, if the mission is rejected, the plot powers get returned to wam and Snark (with no results).

[New User]

I'll accept this. And I'm glad it got changed to Chickenfish, as I don't quite agree that using it on RaceBandit would give us useful indirect information on Chickenfish's spy status. To rephrase that, I don't think that using KaCEoY on two people is going to be able to prove who is a spy and who isn't, at least not to all of us. For example, I'm in the dark here. After mission 2, all I'll have to go on will still be my analyses of everyone's posts to determine who is a spy and who isn't. Mission 1 was a success, but gave me no evidence at all of who might be a spy. Mission 2, if this proposal passes, will give me something to analyze, at least. That's why I'd rather it be used on someone who will be team leader in the future; I think it'll be more useful for me to analyze.

I'm sending my accept vote.

[wam]

New user I dont follow.

the number of pass/fails is published.

if theres one fail, we know what two of them have done (assuming you trust me and snark) so we can work out who failed it.

[New User]

The "assuming you trust me and Snark" thing is what I meant. How can I trust everyone? There are three spies out of seven people! That's what I meant when I said I'll have to analyze people. I'll have to try to make a determination simply from what people say in the thread. Sorry if it doesn't make sense, but I'd rather not elaborate more for fear of empowering the spies.

[Snark]

if theres one fail, we know what two of them have done (assuming you trust me and snark) so we can work out who failed it.

You should probably stop assuming that people are going to trust me and you to tell the truth concerning the KaCEoY results. What reason would they have to trust us? If either of us were spies, there are a number of situations where it could be advantageous for one or both of us to lie to frame or protect the person that we used KaCEoY on.

[wingedocelot]

I have an Opinion to be Making:

Accept

[Adam H]

Mission 2: Sabotaged!

Votes:
New User - Accept
wingedocelot - Accept
RaceBandit - Accept
Trineroks - Accept
wam - Accept
Chickenfish - Accept
Snark - Accept

The team [RaceBandit, Trineroks, Chickenfish] for Mission 2 was accepted (7-0).

Mission Results:
PASS: 2
FAIL: 1

Sabotaged!

The team changed players, but was again accepted unanimously. The three Generals sent out their world-class dam-building engineers along with members of the Guild of Chemists with their magic black powder. By the day’s end, mighty Cloud River was reduced to a shallow stream, and the Chemists had set up their explosive powder at the base of the dam. The trap was set.

The three Generals watched from a secret vantage point as the Evil Empire’s army reached the river and started to cross. When the bulk of the armored army was centered in the river, the Generals gave word to blow the dam. A few seconds later, a loud CRACK was heard from upstream. But there was no rush of water. The flood never came. The Generals waited in growing hopelessness until the last of the soldiers had forded Cloud River, before they returned to Castle Havon to find out what went wrong.

The engineers reported that the dam was successfully built, and the black powder exploded as anticipated. According to the builders and Chemists, the dam just didn’t break apart like it should have. It was as if one of the Generals had deliberately built the dam TOO strong.

We are no closer to stopping the Empire. This next mission will go a long way to determining the outcome of this war. We must attempt to destroy the Empire’s siege engines with fire before they reach Castle Havon’s walls.

Trineroks is the current mission leader for Mission 3, which requires 3 players. The deadline to propose a team is 4 days from this post. If a team is not proposed by Trineroks by the deadline, the proposal will count as rejected. To propose a team, just make a post like this, in bold:

Mission 3:
Player 1: X
Player 2: Y
Player 3: Z

Two random plot powers are given to Trineroks to redistribute. They are “Strong Leader” and “Take Responsibility”. The following is a reminder of how to use the plot powers:

Spoiler:

The mission leader needs to redistribute both plot powers before proposing a team. To distribute plot powers, just declare the player you are giving each plot power to in-thread, in bold. The plot powers can be given to the same player or different players, however, the mission leader cannot give a plot power to themselves.

Strong Leader
The player who receives this plot power may become the Leader at any time. If this is used before plot powers have been distributed, that player also receives the plot powers to distribute. If this is used during the mission phase, then the voting is cancelled and those votes are never announced. This does not count towards the number of consecutive rejections.

Take Responsibility
The player who receives this plot power MUST IMMEDIATELY choose a plot power to take from another player. This can be used to take a power from the current round of plot power distributions.

Plot Powers in Play:
wingedocelot: Opinion Maker

[wam]

Ok

So one of RaceBandit, Trineroks, Chickenfish are a spy.

From the Kaceoy chickenfish passed the mission. I will wait to see what Snark says before I make anymore conclusions.

The other thought that occured to me is that as spys do not have comunication, the odds are if they were a spy on this mission they failed it, or they got lucky!

[Snark]

Trineroks passed the mission.

From my point of view, at least one of the following must be true: Racebandit is a spy (this is the most likely IMO) or wam and Chickenfish are both spies and wan is lying for CF.

From other people's point of view (who don't trust me), add the possibility of me and trineroks both being spies to the alternatives above.

I'll post more shortly. Just wanted to get this much in for now.

[wam]

EBWOP

What the last line is meant to read is

The other thought that occured to me is that as spys do not have comunication, the odds are that all spys on this mission would have failed it, or they got lucky and guessed one of the others would!

[Adam H]

I forgot to make a few things clear:

Take Responsibility must be used before the Team is proposed. Therefore the plot powers must be given out well before the Team is proposed. I'll extend the deadline if needed.

Also, Strong Leader must be distributed at the same time as Take Responsibility, and it cannot be used before Take Responsibility is used.

[trineroks]

Alright, I was waiting for Snark's response. I'm glad he didn't flip scum :].

Assuming wam is telling the truth, that would leave RaceBandit as our spy. However, there is still the possibility of wam/chickenfish scumteam (this is all from MPOV).

We still have opinion maker from wingedocelot, and I have two new plot powers I can distribute. Both these powers are actually pretty powerful and I don't want them to fall in wrong hands.

Be back soon with a mission team and shiz.

[Snark]

Suggestion:

1. New User - Mission Member 3
2. wingedocelot
3. RaceBandit - Blacklisted
4. Trineroks - Mission Member 1
5. wam
6. Chickenfish
7. Snark - Mission Member 2, given Take Responsibility, uses TR to take Strong Leader

Reason: wam and CF are skipped as it's possible that they're both spies. I get Strong Leader to use on M4. New User will therefore be leader for M5.

[RaceBandit]

However, there is still the possibility of wam/chickenfish scumteam (this is all from MPOV).

The obvious problem I'm seeing here is that Chickenfish could easily suspect you and Snark of being scum, whether it's an OMGUS or not.

[New User]

Wall of text time? Here are some possible scenarios, in a kind of pseudo-outline form. I hope it's easy for everyone to follow along.

1)There was one spy on Mission 2
1.1)RaceBandit is the spy. He didn't fail Mission 1 because it would have been incontrovertible proof of him being found out. When he was team leader, he followed along with townie (Snark's) suggestions to make himself seem town.
1.2)trineroks is the spy. Snark must then also be a spy, because he used KaCEoY on trineroks and said he passed the mission. I have mixed feelings about this scenario. On the one hand, looking back at trineroks post content for the entire game, I still find trineroks to be the scummiest player. Snark, though, seems to have an overwhelming number or pro-town ideas and strategies. It just doesn't add up that Snark would be a spy covering for trineroks. Snark could be a clever spy. From his posts, it doesn't looked like he has been acting any more pro-town than RaceBandit. To rephrase that, I don't have any more evidence to point out spy-like behavior from Snark than I have from RaceBandit, Chickenfish, or anyone else.
1.3)Chickenfish is the spy. wam must also be a spy for covering for him. This is just as opaque as a trineroks/Snark pair. Chickenfish at least looks to have less posts overall during the entire game, which could be a spy keeping his mouth shut, hoping not to give anything away. The post content I get from both of them looks pro-town, except for that time wam wanted to use KaCEoY on a mission member that Snark and I agreed was the wrong member. wam's excuse was that he's busy with real life stuff and also involved in several text games like this, and he promptly changed his use of the power, so it looks like that was actually an honest mistake and not spy behavior.
2)There were two spies on Mission 2
2.1)RaceBandit and trineroks are the spies.
2.1.1)RaceBandit failed the mission, trineroks passed. Snark is resistance, and gets a pass result from Eye On You, even though trineroks is a spy. This seems plausible, as trineroks had already been accused of pro-spy behavior before the mission and would have known one of his fellow spies was on the mission with him, and left it to them to make him look like a townie.
2.1.2)trineroks only failed the mission. This one seems quite unlikely to me. Snark must be the third spy, and by RaceBandit not having an Eye On him, suspicion was sent to RaceBandit anyway. The only reason I might expect this scenario to be true is if the spy team hoped someone could later identify RaceBandit as resistance, but as Snark pointed out long ago, confirming someone as resistance is nearly impossible. This scenario just doesn't make sense, but I included it in this post just to show everyone why it wouldn't make sense.
2.2)RaceBandit and Chickenfish are the spies.
2.2.1)RaceBandit failed the mission, Chickenfish passed. wam is resistance. This scenario is just like 2.1.1 above, except doesn't involve Snark and trineroks.
2.2.2)Chickenfish only failed the mission. wam is the third spy. This seems almost as unlikely as 2.1.3 above, for similar reasons. The only thing that makes this asymmetrical is that Chickenfish hasn't been accused of pro-spy behavior, so the spy team might have felt safer covering for him. Still, if RaceBandit was also a spy and wam is the third spy, I would expect a double fail result from Mission 2.
2.3)trineroks and Chickenfish are the spies. Since there was only mission saboteur, the person who had an Eye On the saboteur is the third spy (to be more clear, either Snark or wam is the third spy). This one is quite plausible, since all three could have easily come up with that solution independently. Put yourself in their positions: you know that you and your fellow spy are on the mission together, and you both know that the third spy has an Eye On You, and a resistance member has an Eye On the other. Which is the obvious choice to fail the mission?
3)There were three spies on Mission 2. The only conclusion is that RaceBandit failed the mission, and wam and Snark are both resistance. If there were three spies on Mission 2, this would have been the safest play by the spy team (except to simply pass the mission), and also would have been a rather obvious play. If this is the case, the spy team is relying on us to second-guess wam and Snark. Unless the spy team hopes to hinge the rest of the game on us second-guessing Snark and wam, it seems likely that they would have instead proposed a team without all three spies, or RaceBandit was willing to throw himself under the bus.

Thoughts, everyone? I might have stated the obvious, I might have left out something obvious to someone else. The most likely scenarios look to me like (1.1), (2.1.1), (2.2.1), and (2.3). Three out of four of those point to RaceBandit being a spy. The least likely scenarios are (2.1.2), (2.2.2), and 3. If either trineroks or Chickenfish was the only spy on Mission 2, I think we have essentially no way of knowing. Also, if 2.3 is the true scenario, what would be the significance of wam attempting to use his Eye on RaceBandit before the mission began? You don't have to answer that in the thread, just think about how that little incident reinforces the idea of a spy team consisting of trineroks, Chickenfish, and wam.

[New User]

Addendum: I just read over all that, and I didn't include scenarios wherein there was only one spy in Mission 2, but either Snark or wam or both are also spies. For example, if RaceBandit was the only spy on Mission 2, but Snark is also a spy. If that were the case, though, it seems as though Snark would have seen the mission result of one saboteur, and told everyone that his Eye On trineroks gave a fail result.

Should I outline those scenarios as well? Or does everyone think this scenario stuff isn't useful and just wants me to stop?

[Snark]

It's all good. The huge wall of text. I'm impressed. But do some more with it: tell us how you'd do things if you were the current mission leader.

[New User]

I wouldn't be able to do so without saying what I would expect trineroks (the current team leader) to do if he were resistance, if he were a spy, or both. Either way, I could influence trineroks's decision, and should he indeed turn out to be a spy, that could be bad for the resistance. Snark, I've said that I think you have a great record of offering pro-resistance advice and strategy. But your last team suggestion isn't pro-resistance, it's pro-Snark. So I'm going to do the pro-New User thing and just see what trineroks does, and react from there instead of telling him what to do.

[Snark]

Suggestion:

1. New User - Mission Member 3
2. wingedocelot
3. RaceBandit - Blacklisted
4. Trineroks - Mission Member 1
5. wam
6. Chickenfish
7. Snark - Mission Member 2, given Take Responsibility, uses TR to take Strong Leader

Reason: wam and CF are skipped as it's possible that they're both spies. I get Strong Leader to use on M4. New User will therefore be leader for M5.

Snark, I've said that I think you have a great record of offering pro-resistance advice and strategy. But your last team suggestion isn't pro-resistance, it's pro-Snark.

I've worked out the probabilities for each player from my POV. Racebandit has a 10/13 chance of being a spy. Chickenfish and wam have a 7/13 chance of being spies. New User, wingedocelot, and trineroks each have a 5/13 chance of being spies.

My suggestion skips over wam and CF since they have better than average chances of being spies. It's also going to blacklist Racebandit for now, as he has the highest probability of being a spy. Interestingly, if you replace trineroks name with my name in the probabilities paragraph, then these probabilities are the probabilities from trinerok's POV (if trineroks is Resistance). So trineroks should skip over Racebandit, wam, and CF like I have outlined in my suggestion. He shouldn't give plot powers to those three either and can't give them to himself so that leaves Snark, New User, or wingedocelot. It's his decision from here. He should note of course that if I was a spy and Racebandit was as well, that it probably would have been in my best interest to lie and say that trineroks failed M2.

So my team suggestion isn't pro-Snark. It's pro-resistance from Snark's POV.
It's also pro-resistance from trinerok's POV because trineroks sees the same probabilities that Snark sees (if trineroks is Resistance, that is).
It's also pro-resistance from New User's POV (if New User is resistance) as New User gets to be on the team and gets to be Team Leader after Snark (assuming no other leader-changing powers are used for M4).
It's also pro-resistance from Racebandit's POV (if Racebandit happens to be Resistance), because Racebandit (if he's resistance) knows that either Snark/trineroks are spies or wam/Chickenfish are spies. He can't get rid of all 4 of us, so the least he can do is vote against missions that include a person from both of these combinations. The proposed team contains only one of those combo's.
It's also pro-resistance from wingedocelot's POV (if wo is Resistance) as wo knows (if she's resistance) that one of the following are spies: Racebandit, Snark/trineroks, wam/Chickenfish. The team I suggested cuts out two of those groups, the most that could possibly be cut out.
It's also pro-resistance from CF and wam's POV (if they're Resistance) because they know (if they're resistance) that either Racebandit is a spy, or Snark/trineroks are both spies. They likely believe the former (as it's 2.5 times more likely, statistically speaking, 10/13 and 4/13 chance respectively) and therefore should be ok with the latter.

Link to probability calculator: link
The red-highlighted rows are impossible from my POV. That leaves 13 configurations/rows of possibilities. Hence the 13 in the denominators of all my fractions.

[New User]

Thanks for the link to the probability calculator. I am attempting to make a similar document. There is a flaw in your reasoning though: you calculated these probabilities based on your POV, then you told us all that it's the pro-resistance choice from each of our POV.

Resistance 5 Mission 3 probabilities for spy teams.

I hope I haven't made any imperfections. As you can see, my chart looks different from yours. There are only four possibilities I was able to completely eliminate as impossible from my POV. Row 11 and row 16 both seem unlikely, but not impossible.

[New User]

What it comes down to is this. From my POV, Snark, trineroks, wam, and ChickenFish all have equal probability of being a spy, according to my chart in the above post. Since that is four people, they can't all be resistance, but they also can't all be spies. Snark and trineroks are likely on the same team, and wam and ChickenFish are likely on the same team. I can't determine who is the spy or spies out of those four, but I can agree that RaceBandit has the highest probability of being a spy right now. So Snark's team seems like a fine proposal, but giving Snark the power to skip over wam and ChickenFish completely might be too powerful. How about we give Take Responsibility to ChickenFish, so he can take Strong Leader, and if we don't want ChickenFish to be team leader for mission 4, we can reject his proposal, and it'll go to Snark. How's that?

Suggestion:
1. New User - Mission Member 3
2. wingedocelot
3. RaceBandit
4. Trineroks - Mission Member 1
5. wam
6. Chickenfish - given Take Responsibility, uses TR to take Strong Leader
7. Snark - Mission Member 2

[Snark]

That's sounds reasonable. Let's see what trineroks has to say.

@New User
You're welcome. "Probability calculator" is much too fancy a name for it, but it's a good start for trying to figure out what the crap is going on.

[trineroks]

So basically I get it looks like this:

Snark + me (trineroks) + ??? possible scumteam
Chickenfish + Wam + ??? possible scumteam
Racebandit scum

IMO, considering how everyone was suspecting me of being a spy earlier before, I would think it would've been in Snark's advantage (if he were spy) to lie and say I sabotaged the mission. <- makes me believe Snark is town.

I like New User's plan. I'll give Take Responsibility to Chicken Fish. That means I still need to give away Strong Leader to someone else. Who should I give it to? The description for Strong Leader states that the player can become the leader at any time (If I distribute this power to a player and then he activates it before CF can use Take Responsibility, it renders CF's plot power useless).

[Snark]

Pretty sure it's required for Take Responsibility to be used first. I hope CF is online to use it in time.

[New User]

I forgot to make a few things clear:

Take Responsibility must be used before the Team is proposed. Therefore the plot powers must be given out well before the Team is proposed. I'll extend the deadline if needed.

Also, Strong Leader must be distributed at the same time as Take Responsibility, and it cannot be used before Take Responsibility is used.

From this, it doesn't look like it matters who you give it to. Whoever gets Take Responsibility will have opportunity to take Strong Leader before anything else happens.

[wingedocelot]

I am going to throw a spanner in the works though and suggest myself for M3 instead of New User. We currently have no read on New User, either good or bad. So putting him on this mission is risky. I would much prefer myself on this mission because I know myself to be resistance. But also, from your perspectives, I have passed a mission already. I know that doesn't exclude me from being a spy, but it's a massive point in my favour. If we want to have the best chance of passing this mission, I think I should be on it, instead of an unknown.
(Of course, nothing against you personally New User I was very impressed with your wall of text)

[Snark]

wingedocelot, you gain no credit for passing M1. I'm pretty sure that any spy with half a brain would've passed M1.

New User has provided more helpful content than you have. That's a +1 in my book.

So I'm not indifferent between you and New User, but unfortunately for you, it's in the favor of New User.

[trineroks]

Mission 3:
Player 1: trineroks
Player 2: Snark
Player 3: New User

Chicken Fish - Take Responsibility
wam - Strong Leader

CF takes wam's power. gogogo

[wingedocelot]

I forgot to make a few things clear:

Take Responsibility must be used before the Team is proposed. Therefore the plot powers must be given out well before the Team is proposed. I'll extend the deadline if needed.

I think you must have missed this rule Trineroks. I don't know if your mission team proposal counts at the moment so I won't vote yet.

Snark, I don’t know why you think spies wouldn’t provide helpful content. Seems to me like the more they post, the more they are able to influence opinion.

[b]Mod - can we get a prod on Chickenfish? I don't think he's posted since the 23rd.

[trineroks]

wingedocelot, have you been paying attention? We're not going to use Strong Leader for M3...

We are going to have CF take Strong Leader, have him be mission leader for M4, and if we disagree with him then we reject his mission proposal and the leadership moves on to Snark.

[wingedocelot]

Ahh, did you read the quote?
I know what the plan is, I was pointing out that the moderator has said the plot powers have to be distributed well before the mission is proposed. And also that Take Responsibility has to be used before the mission is proposed. I'm not suggesting Chickenfish should use his power on this mission, just that he needs to use Take Responsibility before you can propose a mission.

[Adam H]

If we don't hear from ChickenFish in the next 24ish hours he'll be replaced.

Go ahead and vote on the proposed team with whatever conditional clauses you want; i.e. "If ChickenFish takes Strong Leader, then Accept, otherwise, I don't want to vote yet." If ChickenFish does something unexpected, Trineroks will have the opportunity to change the team.

[Adam H]

T1mm01994 has replaced ChickenFish.

[Snark]

Sent my accept. Welcome, Tim.

[t1mm01994]

I thoroughly hope people can still change their votes, as this team will almost certainly fail and I've got some quite strong unanswered questions..
Such as: Why am I (cf) not on the mission? After KACEOY me (and Snark iirc) are the closest thing to confirmed res you've got.
Apart from that, in a game with 4 spread vs 3 united, how can something be a good plan if everyone agrees? Scum won't be happy unless there's scum on the team, and I've seen more than 3 people be happy i.e. There's scum on the team, which means this one will fail. I'm thinking it's trine, and Snark and New User to be town.

But yeah, look up the old resistance, look up Adam's poat on rejecting, think, and reject.

[wam]

But how do you know that Snark and Trineoks are not spies together?

Or trineoks is a scum as is Racebandit and trineoks passed the missing knowing Racebandit would fail it?

Also If your confirmed town so am I, otherwise I would probably have tried to frame you?

[t1mm01994]

Erm, I misread something somewhere. The general point stands; everyone is happy so reject. I'll get back on this.

[New User]

Yes, please come back to this. I'd like to be able to use logic as much as possible to solve this. The best answer I can give for choosing this team is this:
Because of the use of KACEOY on mission 2, it looks likely that you and wam are the same alignment i.e. either you are both spies, or you are both resistance.
Ditto for Snark and trineroks
Sending one member from each of those pairs is unacceptable, since if there is a fail vote it will be impossible to determine which pair it came from. Therefor we must send members from one pair only.
The only other possible team is New User, wingedocelot, and RaceBandit, which is also unacceptable since RaceBandit has so much working against him, it's highly possible that team will fail and give us no information as well.

Please let me know if there is a flaw in my reasoning.