xkcd

by **fearless** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 5:48 pm UTC

Yes I cpped snark because he was one of the people I was suspicious of on day 1. There is not going to be a counter claim when only one mafia is left. It's basically a death wish.

by **Snark** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 5:53 pm UTC

If you're really the cop, there will be no counter-claims.

If you're scum, then a real doctor or cop (if there is one) will counter-claim. Unless they don't understand logic or fail to make it online before deadline.

Can we get a 24 hour extension on today?

If you're scum, you'd more than likely claim cop (or doctor) out of desperation. It's what I would have done if I were you and were scum. You'd have a small shot at not getting counter-claimed, but it'd be your best bet.

by **Snark** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 5:56 pm UTC

Snark wrote:Remember if there's a doctor out there, you should also counter-claim, as it would mean (from your point of view) that ~~one of~~ fearless ~~and I~~ is lying, since we can't have three power roles.

I just realized that I'm confirmed town so I fixed the above post.

If fearless is scum, then I'm town. If fearless is town, she wouldn't have lied about copping me, so I'm town.

by **KrO2** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:00 pm UTC

I think fearless is probably lying, of course, but that's not a risk we want to take. Actually, I think that claim makes her more likely to be scum, since scum would very likely claim a power role but townies are unlikely to have one. But still, lynching a cop is huge negative utility. I'll just have to hope we get another power claim and that would simplify matters. There probably (2/3 after Snark's claim but we have a few VT claims and the remaining mafia is a Role Cop) is one. I'm almost tempted to falsely claim it myself and gamble that she's scum, but I'm not going to because that would be stupid.
While typing that last line I realized that if we don't have a second power role, I don't think we have a way to prevent scum from finding that out. Any power roles should claim and no claims would very likely mean no power roles. Which is unfortunate but no way is it worth not claiming.

If we can't lynch fearless, I'm switching back to Chickenfish, since he is now my second-most likely candidate for scum. But I seriously doubt anyone will follow me, so it looks like fearless just managed to get me lynched.

Unvote
Vote: Chickenfish

Keep in mind I now think fearless is the scummiest-looking player and am unvoting her only because if she isn't scum this would be very bad.

by **t1mm01994** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:03 pm UTC

So, err, Snark is town and fearless claimed cop. I don't think we're getting an extension (only for extraordinary reasons), so
Unvote
Vote: matt96
as he is currently my least loved lurker.

by **KrO2** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:18 pm UTC

I've been assuming Matt is probably town ever since the beginning of D2, just because D1 I thought he and wam were probably not both scum. I'll go back and see how much of him posting against wam might have been self-defense and will probably come back either agreeing with you or trying to convince you you're wrong.

by **Lataro** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:27 pm UTC

Deadline was in a few hours here, due to a request made, a 24 hour extension is granted. There will be no further extensions.

by **KrO2** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:37 pm UTC

OK, so using some quick command-F ing to check Matt's posts, the first time he mentioned wam was in his list of whom he'd lynch. That list, for reference was careyhammer on top, with a second tier consisting of fearless, wam, or wingedocelot (he attacked WO first when forced to provide input), and a third tier of me. If they were both scum, there'd be no contradiction in that part, since as we said earlier, scum would be trying to not draw visible connections. And it was matt96 who considered a long list potentially indicative of not caring who's lynched, a detail that escaped me earlier.

At the time that Matt voted wam, there were five unofficial three-way votes on each of them and they each had been voted in bold a couple of times. But I think it was 1-3 matt96-wam, so I don't think he would have had to vote that early. Which right now is the reason I'm not voting him.
If he does turn out to be scum, though, it would make me happy because it would mean that my vote D1 actually wasn't misplaced. I'm trying very hard to not consider that when deciding where to vote today.

by **Mostlynormal** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 7:08 pm UTC

I think we should have a similar policy with fearless as with chickenfish--don't lynch her at the beginning, but if we're approaching mylo and she's still somehow survived the nightkill...

I understand what WO means when she says she's put down her vote and doesn't have much more to add--I often have that feeling myself.

Unvote

If matt and wam were both scum it'd be miraculous, the first time in mafia history that town had all mafia picked out D1. However that's more of an observation than an actual reason matt might not be scum. And since fearless claimed cop, we're saving Chickenfish for later, and WO made sense, matt's the only lurker we have left. (I'm keeping in mind that scum could still be active, but I think activity is a huge plus in a situation like this).

Vote: matt96

by **KrO2** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 8:47 pm UTC

I was thinking about matt's vote on wam, and I think it might possibly make sense even if he is scum. If it's three to one with no votes on anyone who isn't scum, then he might vote against his partner for the voting record. Especially since he had tried to get people to vote for WO and failed, so joining town in voting for wam would be more of a last resort. I still think he's probably not scum, but fearless and chickenfish are both not in the running here, so I'll change my vote.
Unvote
Vote: matt96

by **Snark** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 9:32 pm UTC

Player Analysis!
Chickenfish - If he's scum, I'll blocking him tonight so I'm cool with waiting to lynch him.
fearless - If she's scum, she's gonna lose. If she's actually a town cop, she's gonna get NKd. If she doesn't get NKd within the next night or two, she's most likely scum and needs to by lynched. Like CF, her lynch can wait.
wingedocelot & matt96 - Could have saved wam from the lynch D1 by switching their votes to Mostlynormal. Maybe they didn't want to appear scummy, but they're both new enough that I think they would have tried to help their partner.
KrO2 - Has been posting a ton of content. Still possible scum.
Tim - has given me no reason to trust him. See this post full of suspicions of others in which he states "matt and wam can't both be scum". He obviously doesn't believe this anymore.
Mostlynormal - was at the top of wam's scum list. That clears him in my mind.

Vote: t1mm01994

Unofficial Votals
KrO2 - 3 - (Chickenfish, fearless, matt96)
matt96 - 3 - (Tim, Mostlynormal, KrO2)
fearless - 1 - (wingedocelot)
Tim - 1 - (Snark)

by **matt96** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 10:22 pm UTC

Ok, so I apparently now have 3 votes on me, time for me to defend myself.

Lets start this off by assuming I am scum, that would mean that I either withheld my kill, or I targeted chickenfish.

There would be no reason for me to withhold my kill, because, from my point of view and no claims day 1, there would be a 50% chance of a cop, giving a cop more time to find me would be the opposite of what any reasonably intelligent person playing a scum would do, therefor, if I was scum, I didn't withhold my kill.

Now lets look at the possibility of targeting Chickenfish, the only thing Chickenfish really did that would give me even a weak reason to go after Chickenfish was ask me to post some more, there were plenty of people who were doing things that would give me a better reason to NK them, like Kr02 and fearless, therefor, if I was scum, I didn't target Chickenfish

Because no one died and I didn't target Chickenfish and I didn't withhold my kill, I am not scum.

I suggest we start looking for people who would have had a motive to target Chickenfish, or just lynch Chickenfish.

because I was ninja'd I looked through the topic review, and fearless's specific wording was suspicious

fearless wrote:I'm not scum because I'm the cop. You can trust snark.

the specific wording could be true regardless of whether or not she's mafia, as Lataro's phone post for day start accidentally revealed wam was the mafia goon, so fearless could just have intentionally forgot to put the word roll in front of the word cop, and ended up with a false claim that is technically true.

by **t1mm01994** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 11:08 pm UTC

.. Wow. I vote, 2 votes pile on top of it. You guys DO like bandwagons!

But yeah, no more than 1 scum, and Kr actually has a valid reason (life saving), so no FoSes will be thrown out.
My reasoning for matt as scum: Something strange happened day 1. Things all do not add up. Let's role down the player list.
Snark: Town, either way. Not lynchable.

CF: on wam's back.

KrO2: Offensive into D2. Seemingly a new mafia player, indicating he wouldn't be comfortable with risks that big; Town.

MN: on wam's back.

fearless: Claimed cop, no counterclaim. Tempted to believe it for now.

wingedocelot: on wam's back.

matt: on wam's back.

So uhm. Either wam got bussed, or I'm scum, and I'm not. I was working from the fact that bussing wouldn't happen, seeing how a wam lynch was quite easily avoidable. Seeing how bussing appearantly happened, matt is open for hunting season, too.

by **KrO2** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 11:09 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:
fearless wrote:I'm not scum because I'm the cop. You can trust snark.

the specific wording could be true regardless of whether or not she's mafia, as Lataro's phone post for day start accidentally revealed wam was the mafia goon, so fearless could just have intentionally forgot to put the word roll in front of the word cop, and ended up with a false claim that is technically true.

It would be really funny if this is what fearless was thinking. Of course, the mafia role cop is also scum, so it wouldn't quite have worked, but still.

On to the defending myself.
I was kind of hoping to see whether Matt would take his vote off me after I gave an explanation, but I guess now that we've got three votes each it's kind of a self-defense thing. That's unfortunate. Matt, I'm not sure if just asking is reliable, but would you be voting for me if it were not looking like it's me or you? I don't have much of a problem with saying that I don't think you're the most likely to be scum.
I honestly don't know why fearless and Chickenfish have voted for me; fearless has only said she has a bad feeling and CF just voted after Snark claimed based on some fairly weak reasoning about one of my posts sounding like I was trying. For all I know he might have changed his mind by now if he had been active.As before, I can't really defend myself because I don't know what the accusations are.
I'll admit that I would have been more likely to target Chickenfish than Matt was, though. CF and I had pointed some suspicion at each other at a couple of points. He probably wouldn't have been my first choice of target, but it sounds like he would have been even lower for Matt. This...actually looks like a plausible reason to not vote Matt.

Motive to target someone and motive to lynch someone aren't necessarily the same thing. If you're scum, you want to target players who aren't going to be lynched and you want to try to redirect the lynches to scummy-looking townies. Wait, never mind, I think I parsed that wrong. Did you mean that we should go after someone who wants CF lynched, or that we should just lynch CF? One looks like a slightly backhanded implication against me, the other is something that I wouldn't be too opposed to but the rest of the town seems to have decided against.

A few thoughts on fearless' claim.
Even if it's false, which seems likely, it's a pretty good thing for us. She can make confirmed townies whether she's cop or not. I'd recommend we vote on whom we have fearless "investigate," so that even if she's scum she has to clear whomever we ask her to. (I'd probably vote for Tim, since I'd like to see him confirmed town, or for myself since I'd like to be confirmed town.) Of course, that's if fearless doesn't get NK'ed, but if she does that clears Chickenfish and allows Snark to block whoever's next on the list. And I think she won't get NK'ed because that would mean scum is neither her nor CF.

by **KrO2** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 11:17 pm UTC

Didn't see Tim's post. Tim, why do you believe fearless' claim? Claiming cop at L-1 was exactly what scum would do. I was going to invoke the power of Bayes to argue that her claim is actually evidence against her, but then I remembered people don't like probabilities here, so I'll just leave it at "scum would have claimed, too."

by **t1mm01994** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 11:27 pm UTC

I'm actually a man of maths, so probabilities work on me

Yeah, scum would have claimed too. Thing is, a cop is an extremely easy thing to check if she's for real or not in 3 days. Allow her to cop someone every night, and check what happens. She dies --> She's innocent. She claims someone's scum before the last day --> Town win. Her targets keep dying --> Kill it! (all that while we still have a jailkeeper alive, who is confirmed now)

by **KrO2** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 11:53 pm UTC

That's a good point. But the point of a false claim to get out of being lynched is to make yourself valuable, and cop is more valuable than doctor. Especially now, since we have a jailkeeper and have even said that a doctor should withhold. The lack of counterclaim is pretty significant, though. If fearless is scum, then from her point of view Snark just voted for her and put her at L-1, and not wanting to get lynched she tries to do something drastic. Maybe she'd later think it should have been doctor, maybe not, but a cop claim is guaranteed to keep her alive longer.

I hadn't thought of the possibility that scum might try to kill whomever fearless targets. Does that mean we shouldn't decide that in public? I'm inclined to think we still should, since any scum who isn't fearless or CF would prefer to kill her or Snark, and if she's the scum then we can force her to leave the most certain town players alone.

by **wingedocelot** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 12:57 am UTC

Unvote

Well this has gotten interesting!

Maybe we could get fearless to cop chickenfish tonight? Or is that pointless? I haven't really thought it through, I'm on my phone and don't have much time. I'm out today, but I'll be back before deadline.

by **Snark** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 2:53 am UTC

I think it's slightly better if we tell fearless whom to investigate. I vote Tim if we don't lynch him and KrO2 if we lynch Tim. The main thing is that fearless should definitely not investigate CF. If there's a NK tonight (of me for instance), then CF is confirmed town already. No need to confirm him again.

I'm tempted to believe fearless. A scum's best bet would have been to false-claim doctor, not cop.
Side note: I find it beyond hilarious that scum who have false-claimed cop create confirmed townies even though they're not a real alignment cop. Not saying that fearless is def scum, but if she is, it's hilarious.

Tonight's possibilites (assuming worst case scenario of a mislynch today)
1. I die. CF is confirmed town tomorrow and fearless's cop-target (or fake cop-target) is also confirmed town. Puts us at 5/1 with two confirmed townies. Not bad.
2. fearless dies. CF is confirmed town, I'm confirmed town. 5/1 with two confirmed townies. Not bad.
3. Someone else dies. CF is confirmed town, I'm confirmed town, fearless's cop-target (or fake cop-target) is also confirmed town if they're still alive. 5/1 with two/three confirmed townies. Not bad.
4. No one dies. I'm confirmed town. fearless's cop-target (or fake cop-target) is also confirmed town. 6/1 with two confirmed townies. Not bad.

Summary: Town is gonna have to try really hard to lose this game.

by **fearless** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 5:57 am UTC

Wtf @ people thinking I'm hilariously stupid :[
First of all I'm not lyinh. I'd actually hinted the I was cop way before my reveal.
I'm on my phone so hard to go back and quote it, but it my first post for day 2.
I said " I KNOW myself and snark are town" (think it was the second point oir something"
I'm gonna vote matt coz its useless keeping my vote on kro now
vote matt

by **fearless** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 5:59 am UTC

Also if bussing did occur then tim is much more likely to have done it than matt. So igmeoy!

by **wingedocelot** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:59 am UTC

So I looked up bussing and I think it would be a crazy strategy for scum in this game. With only 2 scum and town power roles I think it would be suicide. It's possible, but I think it unlikely. Therefore, I'm not going to vote for anyone who could've saved wam. MN couldn't save wam without getting himself lynched, BUT wam actively tried to get MN lynched so I don't think MN is scum at this stage. Snark is town, fearless has claimed cop.

That leaves KrO2 and tim.

It's mainly just instinct because I don't have any strong reasons, but I think KrO2 is more likely to be town than tim, so

Vote: t1mm01994

I also vote using Snark's plan for who fearless should cop. He is the only one of us at the moment who we can all trust not to have an alternate agenda.

by **t1mm01994** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 9:40 am UTC

fearless wrote:Also if bussing did occur then tim is much more likely to have done it than matt. So igmeoy!

. . . . Wut? In playstyle, perhaps, but I think all of us can be positively sure I didn't bus, this game.

Regardless, yeah, for the ones who don't believe in bussing, I'm the prime target now, even though I claimed a lot of youpeople (Snark, MN, CF, Kr) town, which would mean an instaloss for scum-me if you'd believe me. There was a perfectly healthy bandwagon running on Kr, but I got it off him, rather than (at the time) hammering.

Bbut yeah. I understand the votes for me, but as long as there are less votes on me than on matt all's good.

by **Snark** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 12:32 pm UTC

Unofficial Votals
matt96 - 3 - (Tim, Mostlynormal, KrO2)
Tim - 3 - (Snark, fearless, wingedocelot)
KrO2 - 2 - (Chickenfish, matt96)

I'll be on around 2pm EST. Hopefully that's before the deadline.

by **t1mm01994** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 3:09 pm UTC

Snark, I'm sorry to dissappoint you, but fearless voted matt most recently.

fearless wrote:vote matt

Corrected unofficial Votals
matt96 - 4 - (Tim, Mostlynormal, fearless, KrO2)
Tim - 2 - (Snark, wingedocelot)
KrO2 - 2 - (Chickenfish, matt96)[/quote]

by **matt96** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 5:12 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote:t1mm01994
this is half self-defense, and half I don't find KrO2 as scummy, and then another half I don't like how much t1mm has been trying to influence people, listing 4 people who voted for wam yesterday and aren't confirmed town or people that we can leave for later, and only calling me out as suspicious because of it, and now that I have been ninja'd by the updated votals, I see that I am at L-1, also fearless

fearless wrote:Also if bussing did occur then tim is much more likely to have done it than matt. So igmeoy!

If this is what you think, then why are you voting for me and not t1mm?

by **Snark** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 5:44 pm UTC

One of matt and Tim is most likely to be lynched. fearless should investigate (or claim to investigate) whichever of the two isn't lynched today. I will block CF tonight. Let's see how this all plays out. I'd also like to ask MN, fearless, or KrO2 to consider a vote-change to Tim.

Unofficial Votals
matt96 - 4 - (Tim, Mostlynormal, fearless, KrO2)
Tim - 3 - (Snark, wingedocelot, matt96)
KrO2 - 1 - (Chickenfish)

by **t1mm01994** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 5:50 pm UTC

I still find fearless' bussing comment astonishing as I can't have bussed wam, as I didn't vote for him >.>

matt96 wrote:listing 4 people who voted for wam yesterday and aren't confirmed town or people that we can leave for later, and only calling me out as suspicious because of it

Wut. Half of "what does that even mean" along with half of "Bussing isn't the reason". The reason I vote you is because you have been by FAR the least agressive player here. The bussing part is a conclusion, which was well explained in my last post. Why would I have wanted to influence people this day if I happily could have sided with a Kr lynch? Your arguments, they make little sense.. I'm going to go with grasping straws here.

Snark, why would you set up a lynch on me?

by **Snark** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 6:01 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:Snark, why would you set up a lynch on me?

Because I can't get any townie reads on you whatsoever. Because you said "either scum bussed wam or I'm scum" and I don't think wam was bussed.

by **matt96** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 6:03 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:I still find fearless' bussing comment astonishing as I can't have bussed wam, as I didn't vote for him >.>
matt96 wrote:listing 4 people who voted for wam yesterday and aren't confirmed town or people that we can leave for later, and only calling me out as suspicious because of it
t1mm01994 wrote:On to the defending myself.

Wut. Half of "what does that even mean" along with half of "Bussing isn't the reason". The reason I vote you is because you have been by FAR the least agressive player here. The bussing part is a conclusion, which was well explained in my last post. Why would I have wanted to influence people this day if I happily could have sided with a Kr lynch? Your arguments, they make little sense.. I'm going to go with grasping straws here.

how does this post not make it sound like busing is the reason you are voting me?

t1mm01994 wrote:My reasoning for matt as scum: Something strange happened day 1.

CF: on wam's back.

MN: on wam's back.

wingedocelot: on wam's back.

matt: on wam's back.

So uhm. Either wam got bussed, or I'm scum, and I'm not. I was working from the fact that bussing wouldn't happen, seeing how a wam lynch was quite easily avoidable. Seeing how bussing appearantly happened, matt is open for hunting season, too.

It just is saying that you believe I am a legitimate lynch candidate, not any other reason why, and your non agressive comment is easily explained, because we got wam day 1, I don't think there was enough time for scum to buddy subtly or not, and look at the games I have been in Pypokemafia and The Evil Auction, in Pypokemafia, I was able to figure out for my self who scum were once we had one down because I had subtle buddying from earlier days to go on, in Evil Auction, I got you day 1, and had no idea who the other mafia were until they claimed, getting scum on day 1 makes it harder for me, also changing the lynch makes you seem more active and more scum hunting and townier, just what a mafia trying to not get caught would do if they were experienced enough to pull it off!

by **Snark** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 6:15 pm UTC

I"M TARGETING TIM TONIGHT!!!!

FEARLESS, INVESTIGATE CHICKENFISH.

Unvote
Vote: matt96

THAT'S THE HAMMER!

by **Lataro** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:02 pm UTC

With that, matt96 is hammered. I'm trusting the unofficial votals here, as I've been horrible at keeping a tally over this day, I apologize for that.

Game over, town gets a flawless victory! Matt96 was the last scum.

by **Snark** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:06 pm UTC

WOO-HOO!!!

Sorry for doubting you Tim.

by **wam** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:12 pm UTC

Yeah we really didn't do well in this game.

And the most annoying thing was that my post that got the initial suspicion on me, when I confused games, was a genuine mistake!

I did also like all the comments where people where saying me and matt were not going to buss each other! I don't know about matt but I was working on the assumption that 1 of us was going to be lynched whatever so we should make sure that there were absolutely no ties.

by **fearless** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:17 pm UTC

HA! See? I was tellign the truth! Pfft, doubters

by **matt96** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:22 pm UTC

I think this set-up is broken.

But seriously, I thought wam had outed us both when he posted that town/scum list that had me as third towniest, when I had done next to nothing, and I didn't try to save wam as I knew that fearless comes on right about 3am est everyday, or I guessed that based on the times of the posts in here, it wouldn't have worked. I was planning to kill fearless tonight to make it look like someone was framing me.

by **t1mm01994** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:24 pm UTC

Snark, you were being perfectly logical, I'd have lynched me, too.... I was the only one without a proper alibi, or after clearing Kr I was. Happy matt turned up scum

fearless: what the balls did you mean by me bussing someone?

by **KrO2** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:24 pm UTC

Pretty much anyone would have had to kill fearless tonight. I was even wondering whether Snark might use his power on her, since it practically guarantees a no kill and tells us whether she's lying, but of course I couldn't have suggested that in public.

by **Snark** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:31 pm UTC

KrO2 wrote:Pretty much anyone would have had to kill fearless tonight. I was even wondering whether Snark might use his power on her, since it practically guarantees a no kill and tells us whether she's lying, but of course I couldn't have suggested that in public.

That would have been freaking brilliant if it had worked, but it could easily destroy the town if it went wrong (like if Tim was scum and had NKd me, guessing that I would actually target fearless). But I was actually going to block Tim like I said I was going to. I had already sent Lataro the PM.

by **Lataro** » Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:36 pm UTC

matt96 wrote:I think this set-up is broken.

But seriously, I thought wam had outed us both when he posted that town/scum list that had me as third towniest, when I had done next to nothing, and I didn't try to save wam as I knew that fearless comes on right about 3am est everyday, or I guessed that based on the times of the posts in here, it wouldn't have worked. I was planning to kill fearless tonight to make it look like someone was framing me.

According to mafiascum, it is the current most balanced open newbie game setup. Town just played an exceptional game.

Who is online