Resistance 5 - Spies Win! (3-1)

[Snark]

@Tim

Unless you, Racebandit, and wingedocelot are spies.

In which case the mission will pass, Racebandit can't say anything as he's the most likely spy, and you and wingedocelot are the only ones who have a problem with the proposed mission.

[Snark]

Yes, please come back to this. I'd like to be able to use logic as much as possible to solve this. The best answer I can give for choosing this team is this:
Because of the use of KACEOY on mission 2, it looks likely that you and wam are the same alignment i.e. either you are both spies, or you are both resistance.
Ditto for Snark and trineroks
Sending one member from each of those pairs is unacceptable, since if there is a fail vote it will be impossible to determine which pair it came from. Therefor we must send members from one pair only.
The only other possible team is New User, wingedocelot, and RaceBandit, which is also unacceptable since RaceBandit has so much working against him, it's highly possible that team will fail and give us no information as well.

Please let me know if there is a flaw in my reasoning.

There are several flaws in your reasoning.
1. There's no guarantee that wam/Tim and Snark/trineroks are the same alignement. spy/resistance is totally possible.
2. Putting Racebandit on a team is absolute madness.
3. There are many other possible teams.

I propose either 1) The current mission (unless more people than just Racebandit, Tim, and wingedocelot speak out against it)
or 2) A mission with me and 2 of the following: wam, New User, wingedocelot. Preferably New User and wingedocelot.

Updated probabilities: here
The bottom contains probs from each person's POV (assuming that that person and no others are confirmed resistance).
The second sheet (named "Assuming") contains probs if we assume that spy/resistance combo of wam/Tim and Snark/trineroks is impossible (because we think spies would have framed resistance given the chance)

[Adam H]

To eliminate confusion, here's the updated plan.

T1mm has 20 hours to use Take Responsibility. He will default to take Strong Leader if he misses the deadline. Trineroks has 28 hours to officially submit a team. The team will default to the [trineroks, Snark, New User] team if he misses the deadline. Then the 24 hour mission phase will begin. All votes given will stand if they aren't changed.

[t1mm01994]

Wait, racebandit and WO are unhappy? Carry on, then. You now have my blessing. (In resistance, if no one is pissed off, something's gone wrong). I'm sending in my Take Responsibility and my Accept as we speak.

[Adam H]

T1mm01994 has used Take Responsibility to take Strong Leader from wam. In the future, post the use of a plot power in thread; there's no need to go through me.

Plot Powers
wingedocelot: Opinion Maker
t1mm01994: Strong Leader

[Snark]

There are several flaws in your reasoning.
1. There's no guarantee that wam/Tim and Snark/trineroks are the same alignement. spy/resistance is totally possible. Or resistance/spy who chose to pass M2.
2. Putting Racebandit on a team is absolute madness.
3. There are many other possible teams.

Late EBWOP. Underlined was added.

[wingedocelot]

So I’m currently confused about whether the team has been officially proposed or not. In case it has,

Reject

Using Tim’s logic, the Trineroks proposed team is now guaranteed to fail from my perspective. I am the only one who’s argued against and I’m resistance therefore the spies must be happy with it.

However, I’m in a no-win situation. The more I try to argue against the team, the more likely other resistance will think I’m a spy trying to prevent a team going through that will pass.

I don’t know how to resolve that problem, so I’m just going to sit back, try not to make things worse and hope I’m wrong.

[t1mm01994]

10 bucks on both wo and RB being spies

[wam]

Tim I won't take that bet!

[t1mm01994]

2:1 that wam is the missing spy

[wingedocelot]

I'll take the bet Tim.

[trineroks]

Adam wants me to resubmit the team so...

Mission 3:
Player 1: trineroks
Player 2: Snark
Player 3: New User

[Adam H]

Everyone already voted on that team, so let's get the party started!

Mission 3: Sabotaged!

Votes:
New User - Accept
wingedocelot - REJECT
RaceBandit - REJECT
Trineroks - Accept
wam - Accept
Chickenfish - Accept
Snark - Accept

The team [Trineroks, Snark, New User] for Mission 3 was accepted (5-2).

Mission Results:
PASS: 2
FAIL: 1

Sabotaged!

We gave command to our three most loyal generals, trusting them to burn the siege engines that would otherwise arrive by sundown. The generals secretly make their plans, unable to trust the rest of us with the mission details. When they finally agree on a plan, they send out one hundred trustworthy archers with oil and torches.

The shadows grow long. There is no word from the archers, nor smoke on the horizon, nor any indication of success. As the sun begins to set, drums sound from the east. Wordlessly, we climb up the ramparts and silently gaze out at the face of evil. A sea of men, glowing red from the setting sun, marches toward our bastion. With sinking hearts, you look beyond the soldiers, at the intact wooden towers, battering ram, and catapults. The army grinds to a halt in the shadow of our wall, and the catapults begin to fling 100 brave and piteous archers one by one into our castle grounds.

As the siege commences, you realize you have only one shot remaining at winning this war. Cut off the head. The Emperor must die.

Wam is the current mission leader for Mission 4, which requires 4 players. In order for Mission 4 to be sabotaged, spies need TWO FAILS. Only one fail on this mission will result in SUCCESS. The deadline to propose a team is 3 days from this post. If a team is not proposed by wam by the deadline, the proposal will count as rejected. To propose a team, just make a post like this, in bold:

Mission 4:
Player 1: W
Player 2: X
Player 3: Y
Player 4: Z


Two random plot powers are given to wam to redistribute. They are “No Confidence” and “Strong Leader”. The following is a reminder of how to use the plot powers:

Spoiler:

The mission leader needs to redistribute both plot powers before proposing a team. To distribute plot powers, just declare the player you are giving each plot power to in-thread, in bold. The plot powers can be given to the same player or different players, however, the mission leader cannot give a plot power to themselves.

No Confidence
The player who receives this plot power may force a leadership change at any time. The next player in line becomes the mission leader. If this is used during the mission phase, then the voting is cancelled and those votes are never announced. This does not count towards the number of consecutive rejections.

Strong Leader
The player who receives this plot power may become the Leader at any time. If this is used before plot powers have been distributed, that player also receives the plot powers to distribute. If this is used during the mission phase, then the voting is cancelled and those votes are never announced. This does not count towards the number of consecutive rejections.

Plot Powers in Play:
wingedocelot: Opinion Maker
t1mm01994: Strong Leader

[New User]

OK. The first thing I notice is RaceBandit didn't say much in the discussion for Mission 3, and then he rejected the mission. Does everyone think this proves he's a spy? I need time to think this over, but right now it looks like trineroks is a spy, Snark is town, wingedocelot... I don't know. Looks spy. I need time to think it over. Also, I noticed we have No Confidence and Opinion Maker as the only plot powers left, to be given by Mission 5's team leader.

[Snark]

Well this stinks. From my point of view, too tired to figure it out for everyone else, the best chance for M4 and M5 is wingedocelot/wam/Tim/Snark. This makes the spy team Racebandit/trineroks/New User. I'm ready and willing to listen to alternate viewpoints, but I obviously won't budge on a few points: I must be included on M5. Otherwise we will definitely lose. That's assuming we make it to M5. :/

[New User]

I am not hasty to accept a Mission 4 with both wam and Tim.

I think I have a way to guarantee we make it to Mission 5. I might have missed something, but here's my train of thought as best I can organize it:
>At least one person on Mission 3 was a spy.
>I am resistance, therefor trineroks, Snark, or both are spies.
>If both were spies, I would expect two sabotage votes for the mission, since spies can't chat and wouldn't have been able to decide among themselves who would fail and who would pass.
>If Snark was a spy and trineroks was not, then on Mission 2 Snark would have lied and said trineroks was a spy.
>If trineroks is a spy and Snark is not, he could have voted pass on Mission 2, knowing that he was under surveillance by Snark and allowing one of his fellow spies (Tim/ChickenFish or RaceBandit) to fail the mission reliably. This outcome would have been easily accomplished even without spy chat, especially if RaceBandit was a spy since he was not under surveillance.
>Therefor I conclude that Snark is resistance and trineroks is a spy.

That explains what happened on Mission 3. Now to take that into context with Mission 2. I realize this involves a bit of circular reasoning (determining from Mission 3 that trineroks is a spy based on what happened in Mission 2, I am now going to determine who was a spy in Mission 2 by simply stating that trineroks is a spy).
>trineroks is a spy
>Snark is resistance
>If trineroks was the only spy on Mission 2, Snark would have reported that he cast a fail vote. Therefor, there must have been more than one spy on Mission 2
>If RaceBandit was the other spy, trineroks would have safely been able to vote PASS, knowing that he was under surveillance (I just stated that above)
>If Tim/ChickenFish was the other spy, trineroks would have only been able to safely vote PASS if wam was also a spy, or if he expected Tim/ChickenFish to also vote PASS and saw that as acceptable, or if he wanted Tim/ChickenFish to vote FAIL and have (resistance) wam tell everyone.

Now my proposed spy teams are these:
1)trineroks, RaceBandit, wingedocelot. This combination explains everything. Mission 2 failed with one vote because trineroks was under surveillance, but RaceBandit failed the mission because he wasn't being watched. Snark didn't get a fail result in Mission 2 because of that. Also, wam reported a PASS from Tim/ChickenFish because Tim is resistance. What I can't explain is Mission 1. Nobody offered a word of protest, even though the spy team must have known that their only choice was to allow the mission to pass. Maybe that's what happened, because it was such a solid strategy.
2)trineroks, Tim, wam. This explains everything. Mission 1 passed because there were no spies. Mission 2 had one fail vote because trineroks voted to pass, knowing that (resistance) Snark would have reported him, and Tim/ChickenFish safely voted FAIL, knowing wam wouldn't report him. All blame conveniently went to RaceBandit. The only thing this setup doesn't explain is RaceBandit's suspicious REJECT vote on Mission 3.
3)trineroks, RaceBandit, wam. This explains everything. It's just like the example above, except Tim/ChickenFish is replaced by RaceBandit. wam attempted to use KACEOY on RaceBandit before Snark reminded him to use it on Tim/ChickenFish, because wam was trying to pull the same ploy I described in the example above, but trying to shift blame to Tim/ChickenFish instead.

Now, I think I can guarantee that we make it to Mission 5 if we have a team consisting of:
New User
Snark
wam
wingedocelot

Since Snark and I are both resistance, and wam and wingedocelot are unlikely to both be spies, this ensures that only one or zero spies are on Mission 4. I know it isn't perfect, and I do hope someone has a better plan. If wam and wingedocelot are both spies, we lose. If we pass Mission 4, I don't know how we'll pass Mission 5, since I don't see how we can get any information out of this mission no matter what we do. This is the most logical way I can think to pass Mission 4, and even taking a stab in the dark on Mission 5 is better than giving up.

[trineroks]

I'd like to see why RaceBandit rejected my team proposal.

And I have to admit that I have been putting a lot of the mafia games on the backburner due to school, so sorry I didn't put in enough contribution.

Believe what you guys want to believe; I am Resistance, and I have a feeling it was New User who failed my mission (as of right now I can't really consider Snark to be spy). And because I fos New User, I'm going to have to suspect wam and, consequently, ChickenFish as well. This leads me to believe ChickenFish failed M2. Therefore, if New User's team passes, it would be a loss for town.

I will have to go against your proposed team, New User, unless you replace wam with either me or RaceBandit.

[RaceBandit]

Replace wam with the player that is the most likely spy ATM? ~Wonderful idea!~
I wouldn't be surprised if you got ousted now. As such, I don't foresee either of us getting on M4 or M5.

Anyways. I rejected M3 because simply put, with how much wine I thought you were spilling, putting both you and NU on the team seemed like a bad idea, whether or not Snark flipped town.
As for NU, I had no clue what his disposition would be. Even if M1 is easy modo, I thought it counted for something in WO's favor.

Why I didn't say this earlier, I'm not sure.

[trineroks]

Racebandit, I gave New User two options: me or you. Seeing as I'm being fossed from all sides, it's probably highly unlikely that I'll be put on the team anyway.

[wam]

Right my thoughts are as follows, there is no point just tying to pass mission 4, as unless we figure out who the spies are, we will inevitably fail mission 5 (4 players 1 to fail).

My suggested team is

1) wam
2) snark
3) tim
4) 1 of new user/WO

I am currently leaning towards New user.

I would give No confidence to tim on the following basis, he has strong leader already, which means if he uses No confidence and the leadership goes to someone who we think is a spy, he can then use strong leader to take control.

I would probably give the other strong leader to Snark, as he is the only other player I am happy is resitance.

[t1mm01994]

what-why- How is Snark townier than trineroks EVER? If snark is town, trine is either one HELL of a gambler, or town.

[wam]

Tim

here is my reasoning

Below are the possible permutations for Snark and Trineroks from mission two

Situation Trineroks Pass/Fail Snarks report
1) Both are resistance pass pass
2) TR spy Snark res pass pass
3) TR spy Snark res fail fail
4) TR res Snark spy pass fail
5) TR res Snark spy pass fail

In my mind the most likely scenario is that trineroks was a spy, passed the mission knowing that Racebandit (who wasn't under surveilance) would fail it on their behalf.

Also remember from my perspective (knowing that CF/Tim passed mission 2) at least one of trineroks and racebandit must be a spy.

I also think that if Trineroks was resistance and snark a spy, snark would have tried to frame him.

[t1mm01994]

I disagree on the last point. As show now, not doing it scores great townie points, even so much to assume that he's more townie than the one he's supposed to frame.
On my scumdar: RaceBandit for 99% sure scum
Snark/New User for 2 other, not so sure scum. The "Snark did not frame trine so he's townier" doesn't fall well with me, and that is mainly pushed by NU.
Quite frankly, I don't see why you'd want to "frame" someone. It basically instathrows you out of the game, along with the one you framed.. Which is not a good thing on M2 yet.
and trine is the only one I currently feel comfortable with.

[Snark]

and trine is the only one I currently feel comfortable with.

Changing my res/spy team guesses to Snark/wam/wingedocelot/New User and Racebandint/trineroks/Tim.

That is all. If we win this game, it's gonna be a miracle.

[t1mm01994]

I've got snark down as scum, which means that I'm right on trine and on RB (1 scum bussed for niceness), just no clue on scum #3.

[wingedocelot]

If we win this game, it's gonna be a miracle.

I agree. There are so many options for spy teams at the moment. I've been trying to keep up with what possible combinations could be left, but I can't narrow it down that much without making assumptions.

I'm going to run with assuming that if wam or snark were spies and the player they investigated passed, then they would have lied to create confusion and protect their spy buddy who actually failed the mission. This may not be the case but I think it's pretty reasonable to assume.

In that case, wam is the most likely to be resistance from my perspective and then Snark. I'm thinking trineroks and racebandit are probable spies. Not sure at all about New User. Tim might be ok, but if Racebandit is a spy there's a chance Tim is too because he could knew he could trust racebandit to fail the mission.

Lastly, wam, I'm not sure about giving No confidence to Tim. He is already going to be the next mission leader and gets to choose where the last set of powers go. He'll have an awful lot of power if you give him no confidence as well. Unless you are absolutely certain you can trust him, I'd consider spreading the power around a bit. If Snark is the only other one you trust, then give him both powers. Tim will get the final set of powers to distribute and if he's trustworthy then he can give you the last No confidence. You three will then still have all the power (and all the mission proposals) between you but it will be more spread out, so less of a disaster if one of you turns out to be a spy.

Ninja-ed by tim but nothing really to add.

[t1mm01994]

This.. is pretty horrible. I'm resistance. say snark is res, then that's game atm. Say Snark is a spy, then no one will believe he is, and again we lose 20 dollars and my self-respect. Hence I'll now live off the assumption Snark is res as it's the only way I can see we can get M5. I think we can agree that RB is a winespreading spy. Seeing how Snark is res, I'm res and RB is a spy, exactly one of trine and NU is a spy (a spy setting 2 spies on a mission is foolish) and exactly one of wam and wo is a spy by elimination. Ever since wam said that he was res because surely spied would try to frame town I'm having trouble trusting him... People who claim their towniness by saying "scum would never do that" tend to not be trustable. Hence we got Snark, wo and me as res, and in the light of snark res trine does look fairly spyish. So, RB wam trine for spies, wo Snark NU and me for res is the only way I can see a res win.

[wam]

Well then you would lose as I am res so you have at least 1 spy in your team. So wall of text time.

Right Im trying to go back to the basics and list what we know as everything has become so confusing.

M1 WO and RB, both passed
M2 Trineroks, RB and CF/Tim 1 fail 2 passes
M3 Trineroks, Snark, NU, 1 fail 2 passes

Wam used KAceoy on CF for M2, he says he passed it
Snark used Kaceoy on Trineroks, he says he passed it.

Now opinion time

I believe tht only 1 of Snark Trineroks and NU are spies. As they have no chat, all spies would have had to fail the mission incase the others didnt, or they were gambling big time. Therefore it is unlikely that Trineroks failed mission 2 and snark covered it up, which means, and I think we all agree on this that RB is a spy.

That leaves us with 2 spys out of following.

New User
wingedocelot
Trineroks
wam
Chickenfish/tim
Snark

using random chance we have an 33% chance of picking a spy free team.

However, I feel the most likely to be a spy out of that list is trineroks. I have explained my logic and you may disagree with it but thats not my issue.

My suspicoun for the second spy is windgedocelot who rejected the M3 team without any real explanation. I think as a distancing tactic, knowing it would fail.

[Snark]

I believe tht only 1 of Snark Trineroks and NU are spies. As they have no chat, all spies would have had to fail the mission incase the others didnt, or they were gambling big time.

What if they all decided to fail it with 1/3 chance? Your logic is fail. Sorry.

[wam]

I believe tht only 1 of Snark Trineroks and NU are spies. As they have no chat, all spies would have had to fail the mission incase the others didnt, or they were gambling big time.

What if they all decided to fail it with 1/3 chance? Your logic is fail. Sorry.

What are you on about? fail it with 1/3 chance?

[RaceBandit]

I would give No confidence to tim on the following basis, he has strong leader already, which means if he uses No confidence and the leadership goes to someone who we think is a spy, he can then use strong leader to take control.

If this were to happen, wouldn't it be easier to just use SL in the first place to skip the middle-man and save NC for later? Unless I misread the powers again, the only difference between NC and SL is in who becomes the new leader. With SL, it's the SL user, and with NC, it's the person after the current leader.
AFAIK both powers can be used at the same time, but only one is really necessary.

What if they all decided to fail it with 1/3 chance?

ALL OF THE WHAT.

Seriously, how would they have been able to organize this? AFAIK Adam wouldn't allow a chance of failure to be submitted as a disposition unless said chance was 0% or 100%, and there hasn't been spy chat, so this gimmick couldn't even be organized in the first place.

[Snark]

All spies. Check the comment I was referring to. It's called rolling a D6 and failing when it comes up as a 1 or 2.

[RaceBandit]

Again, how would they have been able to organize this? There hasn't been spy chat, so they all would've had to think of it at once.

[New User]

I would give No confidence to tim on the following basis, he has strong leader already, which means if he uses No confidence and the leadership goes to someone who we think is a spy, he can then use strong leader to take control.

If this were to happen, wouldn't it be easier to just use SL in the first place to skip the middle-man and save NC for later? Unless I misread the powers again, the only difference between NC and SL is in who becomes the new leader. With SL, it's the SL user, and with NC, it's the person after the current leader.
AFAIK both powers can be used at the same time, but only one is really necessary.

This is my interpretation as well. Giving No Confidence to Tim would be too much power in his hands.

wam and Tim at least are following my same method of choosing a team for Mission 4. Identify two mutually exclusive pairs of spies, and then send only one person from each pair so there would be a total of one or zero spies on Mission 4. This method requires identifying one spy and two resistance out of all seven players, in order to leave only four players in two pairs. Unfortunately, everyone is going to say that they are resistance, so identifying two resistance members will be a different result for each of us. It seems we all at least agree that RaceBandit and/or trineroks is a spy.

I'll re-state what I put in before, but no arguments I have read from anyone have changed my mind. I believe that Snark is resistance, and trineroks is a spy. I believe that at least one of the pair wam and Tim is a spy, possibly both. I believe that at least one of the pair wingedocelot and RaceBandit is a spy, possibly both. By including only one person from each of those pairs, we maximize our chance to pass Mission 4.

Right my thoughts are as follows, there is no point just tying to pass mission 4, as unless we figure out who the spies are, we will inevitably fail mission 5 (4 players 1 to fail).

I don't think you meant this the way that I interpreted it. I would never say that there is no point passing a mission. Like I said before, even taking a complete wild guess on Mission 5 is better than giving up.

[RaceBandit]

Giving No Confidence to Tim would be too much power in his hands.

Actually, I just didn't want to see NC get wasted by a misuse.

[New User]

You're right. It was wingedocelot that said we should spread the powers around. I agree with both.

[t1mm01994]

One thing I'm wondering: How are people still listening to RB, when pretty much all evidence speaks against him?
NU: Will you be with me to only accept a team of Snark/NU/(trine or wam or neither but not both)/Tim/(wo)?

[New User]

One thing I'm wondering: How are people still listening to RB, when pretty much all evidence speaks against him?

Because I agree that would be a waste of No Confidence. Just because I think he's scummy doesn't mean that he'll never say anything that can benefit the resistance, or that he'll never say anything I agree with.

NU: Will you be with me to only accept a team of Snark/NU/(trine or wam or neither but not both)/Tim/(wo)?

I don't understand the question. It looks like you listed five team members? I will say this: I won't accept a mission with trineroks on it. Definitely not a mission with both trineroks and Snark, since I know that one of them is a spy for sure. I will accept Snark/NU/Tim/wingedocelot, since Tim and wam are one of what I called a "mutually exclusive" pair of possible spies. In fact, now that I think about it, having Tim instead of wam kind of makes sense. By saying that, I'm not helping myself get any plot powers from wam though.

[t1mm01994]

Fair enough, as that was the team I'd list, too. Snark, you in on that, too? Cus in that case we can reject this one, let me propose said team and go for it.

[wam]

Well so far I haven't even officially proposed a team for you to reject.

I would also be rejecting your team on the basis that I'm not on it, I am res, therefore there is at least one spy on it.

Here is my proposed team

Mission 4:
Player 1: Wam
Player 2: Snark
Player 3: NewUser
Player 4: Wingedocelot


Plot Powers
Give Strong Leader to Snark
Give No Confidence to NewUser

Tim I have left you off as you seem determined to not let me on the team, which given Im resistance makes me think you are a spy.

On a side note I won't be online from friday afternoon BST to monday.