Werewolf - Game Over: The Dark Lord Rises

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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby matt96 » Tue May 01, 2012 1:47 am UTC

Unvote
Thank you for explaining, I must have simply misunderstood t1mm's power, it could have been like a regular lie detector, but with him targeting a player, then being sent something they said, along with if it is true or false, or something like that.

Also, fearless, you got a scum cop result on JSO and didn't vote, might I ask why?
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby BoomFrog » Tue May 01, 2012 1:51 am UTC

One more thing: Matt, I can understand your theory about how t1mm's power would work, but even if it did work that way then that's certainly not proof that I am scum. Why did you prefer lynching me over a cop result?
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby matt96 » Tue May 01, 2012 2:14 am UTC

I didn't prefer lynching you over a cop result, I prefered people looking at my post, reading it, and seriously considering what I was saying, you just don't get that from voting for the scum result.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby fearless » Tue May 01, 2012 5:52 am UTC

coz I wasn't feeling well last night and didn't feel like replying.

Yes my PM specifically said "criminal" & "Not criminal" so I think the wolf-cop, mafia-cop theory sounds the most likely.

vote JSO
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby wam » Tue May 01, 2012 8:14 am UTC

unvote

Vote JesseScotOwen


Someone also mentioned the dusk druids, I had bascially forgotten about them. Do we think their win condidition is linked to towns? Should we be worried?
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby matt96 » Tue May 01, 2012 10:20 am UTC

I'm going to guess that the Dusk Druids are survivors, but if they die their win condition changes to having all the remaining Dusk Druids die the same way, anyone else have thoughts on what they might be?
Almost forgot to vote JSO,
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby CaptainFinglass » Tue May 01, 2012 1:25 pm UTC

On N2, I didn't get any notice that anyone targeted me, so Matt's claim could be true. As for the suspicion about me because I defended Snark, in two previous games (Political Parties and Fallout) I've noticed his style is fairly aggressive and he was playing the same way this game. For that reason, I didn't think it horribly unlikely that he was town in this game too.

Seeing as I'm town, then fearless must be a sane cop, so unless JSO is a miller, he has to be scum of some sort. Thus,
Vote: JesseScottOwen

Regarding the druids, I think (judging from DBC's comment in the flavor N1) that they have to be killed the same way in order to win. Other than that, I don't know. It sounds like they don't have any really town impacting powers, unless they can play with actions at night we don't know about.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby JesseScottOwen » Tue May 01, 2012 3:32 pm UTC

I guess I should claim miller now. Not that it will help.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby fearless » Tue May 01, 2012 3:52 pm UTC

:| Lol.

re: Druids. I think their win condition is for all of them to be night-killed.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby ahammel » Tue May 01, 2012 4:13 pm UTC

That was hammer, guys. Day's over.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 4: Without a Doctor, Without a Prayer?

Postby Misnomer » Tue May 01, 2012 4:43 pm UTC

ahammel wrote:That was hammer, guys. Day's over.

This.

I'm at work atm, but I will do a proper day end post later.
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Re: Werewolf - Night 4: Those That Lived Still

Postby Misnomer » Tue May 01, 2012 11:25 pm UTC

If the previous day's proceeding had been fast, the events of the fourth day were even faster. What was it that drove the townsfolk, if indeed they were still townfolk at all? Was it determination? Was it fear?

Whatever it was, the mob descended upon JesseScottOwen and beat him to death.

JesseScottOwen has been lynched. His role will be revealed in the morning.

It grew dark early, as if the stain of so many deaths was polluting the sky itself. Those that lived still could only dread what horrors the night might bring...

It is now night 4. Please try to get your actions in by 6pm BST Friday 4th May at the latest.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby Misnomer » Fri May 04, 2012 6:10 pm UTC

There are times when no matter how grim things seem, a silver lining can always be found. There are times when no matter how bleak the odds, people can still feel confident. There are time when in the face of all manner of malice and evil, vast reserves of courage and hope can be drawn upon, making victory seem all but certain.


For the people of Xkcdia, this was not one of those times.

The morning had started well, in that a quick search of JesseScottOwen's home revealed all sorts of Mafia-esque documents, along with a (sadly encoded) diary of people had beaten unconcious.


JesseScottOwen was the Mafia Capo, Anti-Town. He had a roleblocking ability.

However, any sense of confidence was quickly eroded by the discover of Wam's mutilated body. Written in blood in the ground beside him, were the cruel words "foresee this!".

Wam is now dead. He was the Seer, Town. He had the ability to detect supernatural anti-town roles.

Worse was still to come however, as they stumbled across ForAllOfThis' body in the middle of the town square. He appeared to have been shot, yet on his neck were two small holes in his skin, similar to those they had found on Mostlynormal. What really caugh they're attention however was ForAllOfThis's bizarre costume. He was wearing a simple black hooded garment, which concealed his face and would have allowed him to easily remain hidden at night. Yet on top of this, he was wearing heavy leather boots, an ornate waistcoat and a bandana with a skull-and-crossbones on it. Could it be that he was actually telling the truth?

ForAllOfThis is now dead. He was the Pirate Ninja, Town. He was immune to all watching/tracking style actions, and had a flavour cop ability.

After the sheer shock of discovering such a bizarre secret identity had faded, a sudden wave of fear settled over the remaining townspeople. They couldn't explain it, but they just knew that they were in immense danger... and they feared that they might not survive for much longer...

It is now Day 5. Terms like MYLO/LYLO don't apply particularly neatly to multi-faction games, so I will limit my comments to saying that Town are in serious trouble.

6 players remaning, so 4 to lynch. Deadline set for 6pm Tuesday 8th May.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby greenlover » Fri May 04, 2012 9:39 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:It is now Day 5. Terms like MYLO/LYLO don't apply particularly neatly to multi-faction games, so I will limit my comments to saying that Town are in serious trouble.

This bodes incredibly poorly, imo. I think the three werewolves, three mafia theory is highly unlikely at this point, given that a serial killer alone wouldn't constitute "serious trouble" (unless there was some other anti-town faction that I was unaware of.). If we have four of each main antitown faction, however, that would mean that we're already down to a 3-1-1-1 situation (one dusk druid, one mafia, and one werewolf) with no serial killer? Or it could be a 2-1-1-1-1 situation with a serial killer, a dusk druid, a mafia, and a werewolf (a situation that would require matt to be anti-town, given that I believe fearless is indeed the mafia cop). However, at this point, I'm more inclined to believe that there never was a serial killer - if you go back through the nk's that occurred, you'll find that never more than two happened (some folks were mod killed, others died due to mechanics, but nk's only ever caused two kills). People attributed it to a sk on D2, because we were unaware of the mafia at that point. However - since we now know that both the mafia and the werewolves existed, that leaves no room for a sk. Thus, I believe that we are likely currently 3-1-1-1.

If that truly is the case, then a town win is...well, impossible: Even if we lynch the last remaining members of one of the nk-factions, the other faction will simply carry out their nk, leaving us at a 2-2 tomorrow, with the dusk druid naturally siding with the person who has the nk in order to gain their win.

One of the only ways that I can see the town winning now is if we lynch the dusk druid. That would shove both the mafia and the werewolf into a prisoners dilemma of sorts, out of which its possible we could pull a win (if they nk'ed each other for fear of the other getting in the way of their win on the morrow, for example). Another option would be no lynching, which actually wouldn't be that bad of an idea, if one thinks about it - it really depends on how sure the mafia/werewolf is that fearless/matt are who they say they are, and not false claiming/how fearful they each are of the other as compared to town. A third possibility is lynching a towny, but... that...no. Just no.

Of course, that is all hypothetical. At this point, however, unless one of the remaining town players has a vig kill they haven't used yet (and yes, I'm claiming that I don't have a vig), lynching one of the remaining nks in the game results in an instant loss for town. Incredibly ironic and scummy for me to say? Yes. But also true.

To sum it up:

1) Best case scenario: we lynch the dusk druid and hope the nk's are more afraid of each other than us.
2) Worse case scenario: we lynch one of the remaining nk's, and instantly lose.
3) Most predictable scenario: we no lynch, and hope the the nk's nk each other/the dusk druid.

Thoughts, everyone?

@ Matt + Fearless: Even if your results didn't turn up anything last night, would you mind claiming them none the less? The more info we have at this point, the better.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby matt96 » Sat May 05, 2012 12:27 am UTC

CaptainFinglass did not target anyone last night, which I think guarantees that she is either a townie or a dusk druid, so once we get fearless's result, we should be in a better position than the start of day post makes it out to be.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby BoomFrog » Sat May 05, 2012 4:09 am UTC

Ergh, not a good situation.

Didn't think FAOT was seriously a pirate-ninja that's a little crazy. Anyway, I have house guests over so I'm too busy for a long post now, but two things.

1) Confirmed townies should claim last not first. We want the suspicious to claim first so scum will have to lie. Big: FOS GL.

2) Matt claiming early is fine since he could still be mafia or werewolf, we know they have powers. There's a slim chance that Fearless is werewolf but I'm going to assume she is town.

3) GL seems to have forgotten about the vampire. Also big FOS

I believe we are at 2-1-1-1-1 so FOSing isn't really that useful, because all of you besides fearless and I are scum. Our only chance to win is if we both live through tonight.

Therefore, If one of the remaining factions kills fearless I will do my best to lynch them. I assume fearless feels the same way about if I am NKed.

Ok so this went way longer then I expected, and I'm figuring this out as I type, so forgive me if the beginning doesn't match the end. Ok, so we need to lynch the vampire actually. I believe the vampire is a mentor. He's obviously recruiting, but can't be a cult, so that means a limited recruit of some kind. I think he can only recruit if he currently has no minions. So maybe we should claim. If we don't kill the vampire then Fearless or I will get recruited and town loses. Mafia and Werewolves have a reason to not go for a townie kill because town will get revenge, but a vampire can recruit without town knowing it so we can't use the threat of revenge to stay safe. So I've now convinced myself we should all claim.

So I think GL and Finglass should claim first, but really fearless should pick the claim order.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby fearless » Sat May 05, 2012 10:44 am UTC

I investigated boomie and he was non-criminal. Of course he may still be a werewolf.

Personally I feel better about GreenLover than boomfrog. The 3-1-1-1 sounds more plausible than 2-1-1-1-1. But I feel that ahammel is townier than both green and boomfrog.
DaBigCheez has been killed. He was the Dusk Druid, Third Party. He had the ability to influence mod-flavour. He will obtain a win if all other members of his faction are now night-killed.

My interpretation of this is the remaining druid must aim to be night-killed. Right?
What happened to the second druid? Sorry I haven't been keeping tabs on them. As far as I know only one died? What are the chances of there still being 2 druids left? This is confusing. So then maybe we have 2 town, 2 druids, 1 mafia, 1 werewolf.. no SK.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby BoomFrog » Sat May 05, 2012 12:52 pm UTC

Ugh... why did you claim your action first. :( I wanted everyone else to claim before you so others would have more of a chance to slip up. I know you targeted me last night because I am an insomniac, I know who visits me at night. (FAOT also targeted me last night btw). But now me saying it doesn't prove anything. :(

There is no SK, the vampire must only be a recruiter. He has never killed someone, but twice a dead body killed by someone else has turned up with "bite marks" on them.

There hasn't been a 2nd dusk druid turn up so there must be one druid left. There were two kills so there must be one mafia and one werewolf left. There have be vampire bite victims so there must be one original vampire left. That's 4 1s, which means there's only 2 town left. It is possible to win, but GL wants town to just give up. GL is clearly not town.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby greenlover » Sat May 05, 2012 2:57 pm UTC

At this point, I would really like Finglass to get online and confirm or deny if she took any actions last night. If she really did not (as matt argues), she should have no problem confirming this, as it makes her just that much more unlikely to be lynched. If not, the most pro-town thing she can do is confirm so.

fearless wrote:My interpretation of this is the remaining druid must aim to be night-killed. Right?
What happened to the second druid? Sorry I haven't been keeping tabs on them. As far as I know only one died? What are the chances of there still being 2 druids left? This is confusing. So then maybe we have 2 town, 2 druids, 1 mafia, 1 werewolf.. no SK.
This is correct. We have at least one druid left, though it may not be two (I'm skeptical of there being two mostly because of how difficult that winning condition would be - three players all have to die the same way? Owch.)

Also...it looks like BF really has it in for me. Notice a contradiction in BF's playing style, if you would - according to his reasoning, everyone but him and fearless is anti-town. Therefore, since he's apparently happy with lynching anyone who's anti-town, he should be fine with lynching, well, basically anyone. (pre-edit - reading though BF's posts again, it looks like he wants to lynch the vampire. However, he doesn't seem to be trying to find any vampire in his scum hunting) However, he's focused the vast majority of his effort on lynching me. Why? I think the answer can be found in my role: I am the woodsman, and certain types of actions will fail against me (I'm not sure which ones, but I suspect most werewolf actions would qualify?). What I suspect happened is that last night BF targeted either FAOT or wam with his factional NK, and then targeted me with his role specific action, which then preceded to fail. Thus, he wants to get me lynched today because I'm a uncertain variable in his plan.

But, with the analysis of BF's motives out of the way, I should probably address his arguments:

BoomFrog wrote:1) Confirmed townies should claim last not first. We want the suspicious to claim first so scum will have to lie. Big: FOS GL.
The Confirmed townies have already claimed. They claimed yesterday, for goodness sakes. I think this point is pretty clearly BF trying to find justification to lynch me.

BoomFrog wrote:3) GL seems to have forgotten about the vampire. Also big FOS
The vampire cannot be a SK, because it's already been established that no such role exists. The vampire cannot be a cult, because the rules state no such role exists in this game. What you've proposed the vampire to be is a limited cult - but such a role cannot exist, per the rules (any role that changes alignment to a third party and establishes private chat is a cult, iirc). Thus, if the vampire does exist, it must exist as a third party, as no anti town possibilities remain. It is possible that its the dusk druids partner, or perhaps something else entirely. Perhaps survivor? Regardless, I don't see how it changes the situation (survivors typically side with town, etc).

BoomFrog wrote:It is possible to win, but GL wants town to just give up. GL is clearly not town.
Would you mind explaining how I want town to give up?

At this point, I think its pretty clear that BF is the last werewolf, who is trying to remove uncertain variables from the game. However, I'm don't think we should lynch him, as that would hand the mafia a win on a silver platter.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby BoomFrog » Sat May 05, 2012 11:43 pm UTC

greenlover wrote:The Confirmed townies have already claimed. They claimed yesterday, for goodness sakes. I think this point is pretty clearly BF trying to find justification to lynch me.
I wanted fearless to claim her action last so that it could confirm that I'm not lying about my power. Your not even trying to understand me.

greenlover wrote:What you've proposed the vampire to be is a limited cult - but such a role cannot exist, per the rules (any role that changes alignment to a third party and establishes private chat is a cult, iirc).
Misnomer wrote:- There is no cult. Other recruiting roles may be present, however.
Okay, I finally actually read the wiki artile about Mentors and it says they usually have a kill once the mentee is still living, and it discribes them as a limited cult. So I guess you right, but we do know that there is a vampire, and he is biting people and he is not killing people. What do you think he is doing? He's clearly more then a survivor.

greenlover wrote:Would you mind explaining how I want town to give up?
Seriously? Wow...
greenlover wrote:If that truly is the case, then a town win is...well, impossible


Anyway, GL is clearly anti-town, but I would really prefer to lynch the vampire. I'd really like to hear from Matt, Finglass and ahammel what do you think the vampire role is? And what is your power?
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby CaptainFinglass » Sun May 06, 2012 1:14 am UTC

I can confirm matt's statement: I didn't target anyone last night, mostly because I don't have a power that can be used to target people. Which eliminates me from having a NK. My ability is I know one of the Night actions as they happen (eg, if the vampire was out, how someone was killed) but not who commited it.

In regards to which is scummier, BF or GL, I am going with BF, mostly for the arguement that runs along the lines of "GL is clearly anti-town, but I'd rather lynch the vampire."
We don't even know what the vampire is doing exactly, other than biting people who turn up dead via other means. So if we don't know that or where to begin but BF is so convinced that GL is in fact anti-town, why not put a vote down? I have two suggestions:
1 - BF is the vampire and is trying to make it look like he's hunting the role so that no one thinks it's him
2 - BF and GL are scumbuddies trying to spread the wine (this explains the non-vote)
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby greenlover » Sun May 06, 2012 1:48 am UTC

BF wrote:I wanted fearless to claim her action last so that it could confirm that I'm not lying about my power. Your not even trying to understand me.
...false claims can typically account for any results that already claimed town roles receive. I don't see what you thought the benefit of waiting was?

BF wrote:What do you think he is doing? He's clearly more then a survivor.
Hm... I'm not sure. I don't think its possible they're anti town, though - can't be sk, can't be cult, and there are no other anti town options outside of those. They might have an independent winning condition, or be town (like the anarchist was town - that didn't make much sense either, but it was true). It's also possible that they're the dusk druids partner. However, I think its likely that - unless that last option is correct - the vampire will side with town over the mafia/werewolf, as that's what survivor or roles that have a third party purpose typically do.

Also, on a further thought - do any of you think its possible that the vampire is merely the creation of the druids modifying the flavor? We know that at least one druid had that power, and there has been no indication outside of the flavor that the vampire even exists.

BF wrote:Seriously? Wow...
greenlover wrote:If that truly is the case, then a town win is...well, impossible
GL, later in the same post wrote:One of the only ways that I can see the town winning now...
Sorry for being unclear - we can't win by normal means (IE: town majority lynching off scum minority), but we can still pull off a win. I think you've agreed in the past?

CaptainFinglass wrote:2 - BF and GL are scumbuddies trying to spread the wine (this explains the non-vote)
Your first option is possible, but this one is not, unless you want to argue that one anti-town faction started out with 5 members. Right now, there are three (or four, if you believe BF) independent non-town elements - no one has a buddy, unless there are two dusk druids.

Also, now that Finglass has confirmed Matt's results, I think we can be reasonably confident in both matt and fearless being town. I'm calling BF as being the werewolf, which leaves Finglass and ahammel being the mafia and the dusk druid. Finglass cannot be the mafia, as the mafia had a nk last night, so that leaves ahammel being the mafia, and Finglass, by process of elimination, being the dusk druid. This, of course, assumes that no wako powers modified things (like Finglass having the same untargetable nature as FAOT). Therefore, from my point of view, I am most supportive of a Finglass lynch, and I do not support lynching either BF or ahammel. I would like to hear matt's and fearless's opinions before laying down a vote, however.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby BoomFrog » Sun May 06, 2012 7:30 am UTC

CaptainFinglass wrote:My ability is I know one of the Night actions as they happen (eg, if the vampire was out, how someone was killed) but not who commited it.

...

BF is so convinced that GL is in fact anti-town, why not put a vote down? I have two suggestions:
First, no one should be voting until we all have a chance to discuss things. Finding scum is not hard right now, but winning is going to be.

Secondly, You've had 4 nights of information that could help us figure out what's going on, what were the results of your power each night? There's no benefit to keeping it secret now.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby fearless » Sun May 06, 2012 7:49 am UTC

Ok I'm fine with a captain fin glass lynch.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby ahammel » Sun May 06, 2012 10:44 pm UTC

Sorry I've been away from my computer for a while.

First off, updated table for the confused:

Code: Select all
Table 1: the dead

Scum                            Town                    Other
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snark (mafia doctor)            Lataro (anarchist)      DMC (druid)
Adam (mafia rolecop)            webby (doctor)
JSO (mafia roleblock)           timn01994 (priest)
Angua (wolf graverobber)        TLC (minister)
Outuendo (wolf tracker)         MN (innkeeper)
Krong (wolf redirect)           wam (seer)
                                FAOT (ninja/pirate)


Table 2: the living

Player        Role info                   
------------------------------------------
Finglass      claimed action-knower thingy
              not mafia                   
              (fearless cop result)       
fearless      claimed cop                 
              not werewolf               
              (wam seer result)           
BoomFrog      claimed insomiac
              not mafia
              (fealess cop result)
Matt96        claimed tracker                         
greenlover    n/a                         
ahammel       n/a


Looking back over the flavour and the fact that we've had no vampire-flavoured kills, I think it's more likely that the vampire doesn't exist, and is just some DDs trying to get nightkilled. I also find it hard to believe that there are five mafia or five wolves. So it's most likely 3-1-1-1 (maybe 2-1-1 and 2 druids). GL seems correct that we lose if we lynch a mafioso or wolf.

In order to win, we need to a) lynch the druid and b) hope that the scum coördinate their kills poorly. If one scum kills the other tonight, town can win. For once, it's in town's best interests to keep muddy the waters as much as possible to increase the chances that scum hit one another. I will therefore make no claim. I don't have any info that could benefit town anyway.

Finglass is the most likely DD, as I don't believe her claim. It's a super easy falseclaim, she didn't provide a role name, and it's a useless role. She claims that she can figure out how somebody was killed, but we get that from the flavour.

That gives us three silent votes for Finglass.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby matt96 » Mon May 07, 2012 2:08 am UTC

I personally believe we should just go ahead and lynch a mafia or werewolf, as long as we can figure out who the two of them are, we will win (assuming no other anti-town factions/roles exist)
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby ahammel » Mon May 07, 2012 2:53 am UTC

Matt96: if the roles are as we suspect and we lynch the werewolf (or the mafioso) we lose as follows:

- Now: 3 town, one DD, one wolf, one mafia
- Wolf lynched: 3 town, one DD, one mafioso
- Night: mafioso NKs a confirmed townie (fearless, for example). 2 town, 1 mafioso, 1 DD
- Day: both townies vote to kill the mafioso, mafioso and DD tie the vote (the dusk druid needs a scum alive to get NK'd)
- Night: mafioso NK's a townie (they could miss and kill the DD resulting in LYLO, but that's a long shot)
- Day: town votes mafia, mafia votes town, DD votes no lynch (still trying to get nightkilled)
- Night: mafioso, if he's feeling generous, NK's the DD. Mafia and Dusk Druids win, town loses.

Conclusion: the only way that we can win if we lynch the werewolf today is if the mafioso miskills two nights from now at 2/3 odds.

If we lynch the Druid today, we can win a couple of ways:

- Werewolf kills mafioso, mafioso kills werewolf. Town wins.
- Werewolf kills town, mafioso kills werewolf. LYLO.
- Mafioso kills town, werewolf kills mafioso. LYLO.
- Mafioso and werewolf double-kill a townie.
That results in a 2-1-1 which town can still win if we split the vote between the goon and the wolf forcing a no lynch:
-- If anybody gets lynched we lose instantly (you can check my math on that if you like). Actually, if town gets lynched, we get the 1-1-1 below. So maybe both townies should vote NL if this comes up.
-- If we no lynch then at night:
--- The goon and the wolf can kill each other. Town win. This is more likely than it sounds. If the goon kills town, then the wolf can kill the goon and win and vice versa.
--- If the goon and wolf kill different townies it's a draw and we lose. However, this will be difficult to coordinate as either can kill the other for the sole win.
--- If scum double-kill a townie, it results in a 1-1-1, which we can still win if the goon and the wolf kill one another for the reasons hilighted above.

In summary and conclusion, if the roles are the way we think they are, town are in pretty good shape if we kill the druid, and will almost certainly lose if we kill scum.

Going to go examine the NL option and see if that does any better.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby ahammel » Mon May 07, 2012 3:30 am UTC

OK, here's the situation if we no lynch:

- Goon kills wolf, wolf kills town. That results in the 2-1-1 analyzed above (OK for town).
- Goon and wolf kill each other. Town wins.
- The goon and the wolf kill different townies. That results in an amusing 1-1-1-1 situation:
-- If the goon and the wolf make a bloc and lynch the townie, we get a situation where the goon and wolf are forced to kill each other (if either NKs the druid, the other can kill the scum and win). Everybody loses.
-- If the druid gets lynched, town win because scum are forced to kill one another at night.
-- If either the goon or the wolf gets lynched, the other wins. However, because both town and druid lose in this scenario, they can make a bloc and force a no-lynch.
-- If we no lynch, scum are forced to kill each other again. Town wins.

That...actually doesn't look too bad for town. We avoid a couple of LYLOs and I think we have more wining chances altogether. I think this is clearly our best shot.

Vote: no lynch
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby fearless » Mon May 07, 2012 9:04 am UTC

hmm, fine with me.
vote no lynch

-- If either the goon or the wolf gets lynched, the other wins. However, because both town and druid lose in this scenario, they can make a bloc and force a no-lynch.
-- If we no lynch, scum are forced to kill each other again. Town wins.

If either gets lynched then the druid would side with the remaining scum faction so that she can get NK'd. Town loses.
I don't see how we can pull off a win other than the 2 scum factions kill each other.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby matt96 » Mon May 07, 2012 10:12 am UTC

I think before people make this ill-informed decision, I should let people know that I am a hunter, who gets to choose between a vig kill and tracking someone each night, please don't let this be a no lynch.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby BoomFrog » Mon May 07, 2012 12:02 pm UTC

ahammel's plan doesn't account for the vampire either anyway so I completely disagree with it. I believe Matt's claim, it's a lot more plasuible then GreenLover's "Woodsmen with undefined immunities" and I somehow doubt there is a hunter and a woodsmen. I think it's pretty clear that GL, FinGlass, and ahammel are the three remaining scum, and Finglass isn't the werewolf or mafia so she must be the vampire. Her hesitance to come back and give info that should be easy for her to get from her PM's seals the deal.

Deadline is in less then 2 days so lets go for it.

Vote: CaptainFinglass
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby fearless » Mon May 07, 2012 12:14 pm UTC

Unvote
If matt's the hunter then why hasn't he used his vig kill to kill the scum????
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby matt96 » Mon May 07, 2012 7:59 pm UTC

fearless wrote:If matt's the hunter then why hasn't he used his vig kill to kill the scum????

because If I did, we probably would have lost by now, I only tracked people I was suspicious of, and the ones that have died all turned up town, but I tracked instead of killed, and the game is still going on, also I agree with what BoomFrog said about the vampire possibly being a mentor/mentee thing, which leads me to suspect CaptainFinglass, because of not taking an action last night, and I also agree with BoomFrog that we should all claim, because in this situation, more information is better for town than it is for scum.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby CaptainFinglass » Tue May 08, 2012 12:57 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:ahammel's plan doesn't account for the vampire either anyway so I completely disagree with it. I believe Matt's claim, it's a lot more plasuible then GreenLover's "Woodsmen with undefined immunities" and I somehow doubt there is a hunter and a woodsmen. I think it's pretty clear that GL, FinGlass, and ahammel are the three remaining scum, and Finglass isn't the werewolf or mafia so she must be the vampire. Her hesitance to come back and give info that should be easy for her to get from her PM's seals the deal.

Deadline is in less then 2 days so lets go for it.

Vote: CaptainFinglass


Or I just haven’t been able to post for a couple days. Just because I didn’t post an answer right away doesn’t mean I’m hesitant to give out the information.

Here’s what I do know, from the information I get from my role:
N1 – The vampire bit MostlyNormal prior to MN's death
N2 – T1mm was watched
N3 – The druids influenced the flavour to make it seem that there were three of them left
N4 – The vampire asked to bite one of the dead

matt96 wrote:... which leads me to suspect CaptainFinglass, because of not taking an action last night, and I also agree with BoomFrog that we should all claim, because in this situation, more information is better for town than it is for scum.

So I'm a suspect as a vampire because I didn't do anything? May I remind you that the vamp bit someone last night (granted, they asked to bite one of the dead, but they still targeted someone).
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby matt96 » Tue May 08, 2012 2:04 am UTC

CaptainFinglass wrote:Here’s what I do know, from the information I get from my role:
N1 – The vampire bit MostlyNormal prior to MN's death
N2 – T1mm was watched
N3 – The druids influenced the flavour to make it seem that there were three of them left
N4 – The vampire asked to bite one of the dead

matt96 wrote:... which leads me to suspect CaptainFinglass, because of not taking an action last night, and I also agree with BoomFrog that we should all claim, because in this situation, more information is better for town than it is for scum.

So I'm a suspect as a vampire because I didn't do anything? May I remind you that the vamp bit someone last night (granted, they asked to bite one of the dead, but they still targeted someone).

You forgot that the only indication we have that the vampire targeted anyone last night is the information you claimed to have gotten, so you are saying that the information I got confirms your innocence because of information you claim to have gotten that no one else can confirm, unless someone else want to claim that they are the vampire and you are telling the truth, you are the best vampire suspect we have, but I think we should agree on the two people who are scummiest, we lynch one today, I kill the other tonight, we basically get 2 lynches for the price of 1.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby ahammel » Tue May 08, 2012 4:57 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:ahammel's plan doesn't account for the vampire either anyway so I completely disagree with it.

Well...yeah, that's something I didn't take into account. The whole no-lynch thing kind of goes all to hell if I'm wrong and there really is a vampire.
Unvote

matt96 wrote:I think we should agree on the two people who are scummiest, we lynch one today, I kill the other tonight, we basically get 2 lynches for the price of 1.

I think it's highly unlikely that we're going to get any kind of consensus on a second kill target because we've had a lot of posts to the effect "I know I'm town, therefore x, y, and z are the remaining scum", where x, y, and z have different values for every player. I'll just say that if you're going to kill, you'd better be damn sure that your target is anti-town. I can't see how town wins if you miss.

CaptainFinglass wrote:Here’s what I do know, from the information I get from my role:
N1 – The vampire bit MostlyNormal prior to MN's death
N2 – T1mm was watched
N3 – The druids influenced the flavour to make it seem that there were three of them left
N4 – The vampire asked to bite one of the dead

None of this information is in the least credible. We got all of that from flavour, except your N4 info, which makes no sense. Why would the vamp want to bite a dead player? And who cares if he or she did? What's the point of a town power that reveals only useless info or info we get from flavour?

Vote: CaptainFinglass
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby fearless » Tue May 08, 2012 6:09 pm UTC

I like matt's idea.

If we only have 1 wolf and 1 mafia left then we should lynch 1 and matt can kill the remaining one.
So I say we lynch Boomfrog and matt kills ahammel.

That is assuming if the remaining scum NKs matt, matt's kill still goes through?

Then we have 2 town, and 1 druid, and we lynch the druid. ie captain flinglass

Vote boomfrog
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby BoomFrog » Tue May 08, 2012 10:28 pm UTC

You seriously believe that GL is town? The only way I can imagine you think GL is town is if there is no vampire. But the vampire can't have been invented by the dusk druids. DBC had the power to manipulate flavor and he's dead. I really don't think the mod would give the same power to two teammates, that's boring.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby fearless » Wed May 09, 2012 6:25 am UTC

The vamp doesn't have a night kill so it's not too far fetched that the vamp and the druid are one and the same. Maybe DBC altered the flavour and gave captfinglass vampire attributes.
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Re: Werewolf - Day 5: Despair

Postby BoomFrog » Wed May 09, 2012 7:31 am UTC

DBC couldn't alter the flavor that mentioned the vampire N2 and later. And if DBC's win condition is that all of his faction-mates are NKed, but the vampire is recruiting people then the two of them would have opposite goals. There's no way they are in the same faction.
If we only have 1 wolf and 1 mafia left then we should lynch 1 and matt can kill the remaining one.

Then we have 2 town, and 1 druid
Btw, your numbers only add up to 5 people, but there's currently 6 people. It seems like you're really not thinking this through logically and you're just following your emotions.
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