F11 - Game Over - Town Win

[Alekusandorosu]

Well, we are getting so close to the end that now is the time for any power roles to claim. I seriously doubt that we have a cop at this point.

[Adam H]

if doc claims and has saved 2 people who are alive, that would narrow down the choices to two, wouldn't it? town wouldn't win immediately.

We can afford a mislynch though. If we have 3 confirmed town, we win.

[Alekusandorosu]

Can the doctor save himself?

[wam]

No power role can self target

[lynx]

Shame about US, if you're reading I'm sorry for so doggedly not believing you!

But we need to get to business. I'm going to post my list in order of towniest to scummiest.

-scum-
eculc
Alek
Adam
ahammel
-town-

So basically, I'd be happy with lynching either of the scummier two.

[Adam H]

I advocate an alek lynch, then eculc. Depending on doc/cop results.

[Alekusandorosu]

AdamH - Solid arguments all around. In my opinion, the most townie one here.

Lynx - I still trust him. Right up there with Adam.

Ahammel - Still not quite sure what to think, but still neutral.

Eculc - His behavior has been even more erratic than mine. Topped with a lot of active lurking, definitely my top scum.

[ahammel]

- Scummiest -

Alekusandorosu - general lurkiness and weirdness and now this:

Eculc - His behavior has been even more erratic than mine. Topped with a lot of active lurking, definitely my top scum.

No it hasn't, and no he isn't.

eculc - As previously discussed, seems to be very hesitant to commit to any particular plan or opinion. He also totally missed my point on the post detailing the previous, but that might be down to poor communication on my part.

lynx - Acted a bit weird during the USN affair, but he's been willing to stick his neck out, which does not seem like lone-scum behaviour to me. Erratic behaviour is probably caused by psychological strain of wondering whether England are going to embarass themselves in Donetsk in a few hours.

Adam H - Acting like town Adam H

- Towniest -

One thing we should at least consider: do we have better odds if we NL? The scum has a 1/4 chance to hit the doctor, but if that doesn't happen, the doctor has a 1/3 chance to save another townie, which would win for us. Doesn't sound like great odds to me, but I'd like to hear from the rest of you.

[Alekusandorosu]

Do I have any trust here at all left?

[Adam H]

Hmmm, the NL is an intriguing option. My gut says hell no, but let me try and actually consider it.

In addition to ahammel's math, if scum kills undoctored VT, we'd be in good shape. Doctor can decide whether to claim, and based on that we can decide whether to NL or not (3-1 is usually a better option for the NL since it's MYLO).

But now that I think even MORE about it, ahammel's math is wrong. Scum has a 1/3 chance of hitting doctor because they know their target last night isn't doctor, and it's probably even higher (I think I have a better than random idea of who the doctor is, at least).

So I'd much rather lynch than NL.

Also, cop should claim today even if they don't have a single result. If cop claims at LYLO, it does nothing for us (because scum would know if there wasn't a cop, and could claim just as easily). If you don't claim today, then we will assume you're lying tomorrow (wait until someone confirms that there aren't any problems with this strategy).

@alek: gonna guess no. I think everyone's OK letting you die. I'm amazed you got this far, honestly. Usually newbies get lynched within the first couple days.

[ahammel]

In addition to the math errors that AdamH points out, I've realized that if we let the game go to MYLO, scum will be in an excellent position to falseclaim doctor. That basically puts us in a position where we have to guess who the real doctor is correctly on the first try. So, yeah, let's not do that.

In light of that epiphany, I think the doctor should claim now. As far as I can see, the only situation where delaying the claim helps us is if we NL and the doctor blocks another kill tonight (which wins for town). I don't think that's likely enough to be worth it. Today is the last day where falseclaiming doctor loses for sure for scum, so I think it's best if we get it out of the way now. Thoughts?

[Adam H]

Thats a good point. In fact, scum will probably just counterclaim today as well. First claim gets townie points, what do you guys think?

[Alekusandorosu]

That sounds good, but the one who needs them most is me and I'm not claiming because I'm just vanilla.

[lynx]

Claim: doctor.

Although it'd be nice to survive the night, I've thought about it and don't want to be killed before I get a chance to do anything. Let's just lynch scum today!
I protected New User on the first night and we had no kill. I protected USN the second night (I had a hard time deciding between her and Snark) and Snark was killed. And I protected ahammel N3, with no kill again. I didn't claim before because I basically only have one confirmed townie even with two protects, the original plan was to protect someone different tonight and hopefully get another result but oh well.

Any thoughts, questions, silly counter-claims? Sorry it may not have been the game-changing moment that Rooney's goal last night turned out to be!

[eculc]

no counter-claim from me. instead:

Roleclaim: Cop.

Unfortunately, I don't have any useful information to add. JSO investigated snark N1, I investigated US N2 and was roleblocked last night (I tried to target Adam). I was hoping that I could get another result to use before claiming and then (probably) being blocked or killed, but unfortunately I didn't. sorry guys =/. I thought I'd be killed tonight after claiming, but as lynx has claimed doctor I'd expect he'd be a bigger target.

[ahammel]

If both of those claims are legit, we can just kill Alekus and Adam in some order and win.

Here's the problem, though: cop is potentially a perfectly safe claim for scum. If the remaining goon is vanilla, he knows there's no cop to counterclaim. So I'm not willing to treat Eculc as confirmed, especially as he hasn't revealed anything we don't know already. Bugger.

Sleepy now. Will think on this.

[Adam H]

Very nice.

Eculc and jso supposedly copped the only two townies that have died (other than the d1 lurked lynch), so that's a bit unlucky/scummy.

The plan as i see it hasn't changed much. Alek first, then eculc/me. Alek, at this point only a doctor claim can save you.
Vote: aleksandorosu

Let's let alek have one final defense and then win this already.

[eculc]

Vote: Aleksandorosu

I agree Adam. It seems that's the best course of action.

however, in the event that someone hammers, I'd like to remind everyone not to make hasty votes tomorrow; scum will probably end up killing lynx and RBing me, and whoever the first vote is on will be backed up by scum to hammer.

[wam]

Votals

aleksandorosu 2 (Adam H, Eculc)

Not voting aleksandorosu, Lynx, ahammel

3 to lynch

51 hours to the deadline

[Alekusandorosu]

Vote: ahammel

[Adam H]

Alek:

I protected ahammel N3, with no kill again.

You're not doing yourself any favors.

[Alekusandorosu]

I guess not.

Unvote

I'm not the doctor, and I don't have any defense, especially after that. Just win tomorrow, okay?

[Adam H]

Who should we lynch tomorrow?

[Alekusandorosu]

I know I'm just going to die but I think it has to be Eculc. I don't buy his claim.

[Alekusandorosu]

EBWOP:

Never mind. It could just as well be Adam as well. I'm done posting now, unless both Lynx and ahammel decide to vote for somebody else and I just bandwagon.

[Alekusandorosu]

Vote: Eculc

[lynx]

I like the consensus, and since it doesn't seem like much more discussion is forthcoming,

Vote: Aleksandorosu

Sorry Aleks, you played a good game to get this far but we just don't have enough content from you to trust you enough.
I'd say lynch eculc rather than Adam tomorrow but of course if the game isn't over we can talk about that some more then.

Night, everyone!

[Alekusandorosu]

Bye! Have fun! Vote Eculc!

[lynx]

8. You may not post game content at night. It is night when hammer is cast or when the aforementioned deadline is reached. This applies whether a mod is online to declare it or not.

You're dead, shh!

[wam]

And thats hammer

Votals

aleksandorosu 3 (Adam H, Eculc, lynx)
Eculc 1 ( aleksandorosu)
Not voting ahammel

aleksandorosu has been lynched, his role will be revealed in the morning



As they were down to so few, it was almost inevitalbe that fingers would be pointed at aleksandorosu the new guy in the group. It didnt take long before they all turned on him and he was lynched all the time screaming, no you have the wrong person! Then very shaken you all left the table wondering what the cheese course would bring and how much longer this would go on

It is now Night 4, you have 24 hours to get your night actions in, deadline will be 8 pm (BST) tomorrow.

[wam]

The four remaining people slowly and cautiously moved towards the table where the cheese course was waiting and what could go wrong, everyone likes cheese! They all sat down and started eating. Suddenly lynx keeled over, his cheese had clearly been poisned. Everyone decided that it was time to examine the two bodys. Examining Aleks body, you find a mobile phone and car keys but nothing relevant at the moment. Then examining lynxs you find a supply marked "antidotes" and a box marked First Aid kit, clearly he was some form of medic.

aleksandorosu was lynched and is vanilla town

Lynx has been night killed and is the town doctor

3 Left alive 2 to lynch.

It is now LYLO

Deadline is midday (BST) on sunday

[Adam H]

Alrighty, ahammel, you already know that eculc's claim does nothing for him. Scum has known since Day 2 that there's no cop. So it's a coin flip between eculc and me. Except the coin is heavily heavily weighted (double sided from my perspective):

1) I kept the pressure on against KrO2 D2, eculc did not.
2) eculc supposedly investigated Snark and USN. Those two players were the only townies to die so far apart from the D1 lynch. Eculc let uniquescreenname die without much of a fight at all. On D3 we had definitely decided (i thought) that cop/doctor should claim to prevent a mislynch.
3) eculc claims to have gotten roleblocked N3. Did you think eculc was a power role? Cause I didn't, so I wouldn't have blocked him...
4) All the other things that have made eculc a prime lynch candidate for the last couple days.

And if ahammel is scum, I'm totally willing to let him win. He earned it.

Vote: eculc

[Adam H]

EBWOP:

Assuming there is a cop *and* that the cop hasn't copped any of the already-dead players *and* he wasn't RBd by a scum RBer, he'll have 2 cop results for us. if he has 2 town results, that will cut down our scum search to 3 players (town results and cop excluded from the search). if he only has one town result for us (due to copping a dead player or being RBd), he'll be able to limit our search to 4 players (again, cop and town result excluded). If he's lucky, he'll have a scum result.

Then he'll probably be NKd, or be RBd from then on, to stop him from getting more cop results.

in summary:

-if you have a scum result, claim.
-if you have 2 town results, claim. it'll narrow down the search enough that we should be able to find scum before LYLO
-if you have 1 town result, claim if said townie is about to be lynched, and you think it will help save them. otherwise, you should probably wait to claim.
-if you have no helpful results, don't claim.

of course, those are just suggestions; I'll leave it to the cop to decide if they should claim, and if so when.

From his own mouth. Immediately after this, he let USN get lynched.

[ahammel]

Yeah, that whole post was bothering me. It doesn't make very much sense coming from the cop.

Let's hear from eculc, and then I'll end this.

[eculc]

yeah. I didn't think my cop result would help much, especially after some of the posts USN made shortly before. I could've posted, but like I said, I was hoping I could get another result before being killed or blocked.

and as a response to your points, adam:

1) I'm not really responsible for JSO's actions, so there's not much I can say to respond to that, actually. but I (JSO) did vote for him D1, when few others were.
2) like I said above, I didn't think it would help as much as it could at another time.
3) not much I can say about getting RBed.
4) ...I suppose since I'm not really sure exactly what you're saying here, there's not much for me to respond to.

I can understand that you would have made up your mind adam, but I'd like to think that you'd put more weight on town winning than killing me.

Vote: Adam H

[eculc]

EBWOP

I'd like to take the chance before ahammel votes to point out that Alek was the only town player I actually voted for. I doubt it'll actually change either of your decisions, but I since I'm probably about to be lynched I figured I should defend myself.

[Adam H]

I can understand that you would have made up your mind adam, but I'd like to think that you'd put more weight on town winning than killing me.

In the alternate universe where you're town cop, I'm 100% scum. So no, you would not think that I'd want town to win.

GG.

wootwootwootwoot I love winning

[eculc]

I was referring to

And if ahammel is scum, I'm totally willing to let him win. He earned it.

when I said that you should be more focused on town winning than lynching me.

[ahammel]

Ok, I've heard enough. Eculc said that cop should calim to avoid a mislynch, and then did not do that. I'm going with my initial scum read.

Vote: eculc

*crosses fingers*

[Adam H]

Bwahaha you fell for it! I'm so tricksy!

Nah I'm just kidding we won. GG