H.o.t.Snark Mafia - Game Over (Perfect Scum Win)

[wam]

Well my lacknof posting is down to being stupifdly busy in irl and other games!

whem is the deadline?

I will try to get a detailed post done later today bit cant promise anything.

[Lataro]

tomorrow?

[mpolo]

Deadline is Thursday, July 26, 18:00 UTC. I will very likely be getting back home today too late to end the day, so go ahead and count on having until 21:00 UTC. Then I should have time to wrap things up.

[ahammel]

Ok, despite a bit of weirdness at the beginning of the day, KrO2 has recovered well. Wam's looking like an obvious target, having failed to explain his vote. Hammer is unnecessary, given the short day, so I'll let him explain himself. The fshfood/ParSetHis quick double vote has me worried a bit, but I think it's more likely that wam is scum than either of those.

I find myself trusting Lataro, which is a bit worrysome.

[fshfood]

The fshfood/ParSetHis quick double vote has me worried a bit, but I think it's more likely that wam is scum than either of those.

I know it was a quick vote, I think it was more a function of time zones and when I could actually get on to post. I am traveling again, sigh, and am trying to make sure I am able to contribute before deadlines. Speaking of which, I am not sure if I will be on again before the deadline today, but will try in case wam is able to come back and make an explanation.

I am still concerned that we have a full complement of scum left and more than likely an SK (unless someone had a one-shot kill) and I don't feel like I have good reads.

Right now I'm very suspicious of SOC and Alex since we have heard nothing from them still and we are approaching deadline.

Please, people, if you are town, and you are not posting ... you are not helping us!

@Lataro - you left KrO2 off your list .. where do you put him?

[Lataro]

bah, fail again.

I'd say after the explanation, I'm fairly neutral on him, I'd put him near the middle of the list. He hasn't offered much up since that, and what he did say wasn't that helpful really.

[Servant-of_Christ]

I understand traveling can cause odd posting times, so that clears up fsh for me. Wam and alek seem to be most scummy to me. However it's hard to tell if alek is scum or not, because I have not played with him before. I'll give him a day to explain himself before I get suspicious.

[mpolo]

"Krypton Dioxide!" cried the ominous clown,
"I'm sure that he must be the Snark!"
Others concurred, and the votes came on down,
But KrO2* sure knows how to work.

For he told all the sailors that he was quite nice
And so a few turned against wam,
But wam went quite quiet, like he was on ice,
Or eating a nice leg of lamb.

So it was the wamster who hung from the mast
As the sun was starting to set,
And into the night sailed our frabjous cast:
On their chances no one took a bet.

* Read "Crow-two"

Votals:
wam (3): ParSetHis, fshfood, UniqueScreenname,
KrO2 (1): wam

wam has been lynched. Role and alignment in the morning.

The deadline for night actions is Monday at 18:00 UTC or thereabouts. If all of the actions are sent before then, I will try to start the day early.

[mpolo]

As morning drew near, the crew gathered round
And looked at the chap on the mast.
But he wasn't a Boojum, they quickly out-found:
The Baker had left them at last.

For though he feared not the tooth of the Snark,
(Only save Boojums, you see),
The rope on the neck snuffed out his last spark,
And his body fell down in the sea.

The Bellman was nervous, kept ringing his Bell,
As a Bandersnatch came on the deck,
But the Jabberwock came like a bat out of Hell,
He thought it might just save his neck.

But (woe!) the sad morning showed perfectly clear
That the Bellman had left the sad boat
The situation was crazy, the crew filled with fear,
While the beasts in their midst did gloat.

wam was lynched. He was the Baker. He was immune to attacks from the Snark team, unless the kill were carried out by a Boojum.

ahammel has been killed. He was the Bellman. He could have a statement of his publicly confirmed by the mod, and could ask the mod at night whether a particular role was on the boat or not.

BoomFrog has replaced Alekusandorosu.

I think a town win is still conceivable, but town really has to do everything right from here on out.

7 left, 4 to lynch.

I am going to be out after the 3rd of August, so will look for a solution that doesn't leave the game hanging for 12 days until I can get online. In the meantime, we can try for an August 1 deadline (18:00 UTC).

[KrO2]

This is interesting:
I'm a tracker. (The Boots. The tracking comes from the fact that I'm the helmsman so I see movement sometimes.)
Last night I followed ahammel because I was slightly suspicious of him. That turned out to be wrong, but I was told he targeted ParSetHis. The interesting thing was that ahammel didn't have any powers that target a player. I'm posting this because at this time there's not much point in holding back information and I might as well make everyone else as confused as I am. I'm thinking that either he asked about the presence of a role that ParSetHis has, or there was a redirect, or ???.

ParSetHis, I don't suppose you know anything about this?

[fshfood]

Ugh .. we are not playing this well.

Hopefully, I'm not making a bigger mistake here, but I know that we are in trouble and I think we need as much information as possible out there. Foot 1 all town were role-blocked and we had 2 deaths. Last night we only had 1. Last night I role-blocked Alekusandorosu/Boomfrog. So, I'm going to have to assume I did some good here unless I hear something to change my mind.

Therefore:

vote: Boomfrog

I think we need to hear from any investigative results, etc. Also, let me repeat .. if you are town and not talking, you are not helping and we are likely to lose.

Ninja'd by KrO2 .. I am completely confused right now too.

Going back to re-read Ahammel's posts to see who might have wanted to chose him to kill him.

[fshfood]

On Ahammel's power, if he asked which role was on the boat, was that a y/n or would it name who had it? Is there some way to clarify the result of KrO2 (and yes, I'm expecting a no comment, lol

[BoomFrog]

Well good morning to you too. I can confirm I was roleblocked. Oddly the mod PMed me saying so. I think that fshfood is town since blunt trauma doesn't seem like a technique monsters would use to roleblock someone. I will point out that there hasn't been a normal role so far so I highly doubt that the scum and/or SK have normal mechanics as well.

I haven't read much before the last page so if someone could summarize things for me that'd be great. Do we think we have 3 or 4 town left?

[KrO2]

How else would a monster roleblock someone? A freezeinator ray?

Since we can't afford a mislynch, we should consider all the possibilities. Maybe there was a successful doctor, or multiple kills targeted the Bellman (the Bandersnatch and the Jabberwock?), or the serial killer can only kill every other night. I'm not sure BoomFrog's reaction to that revelation seems quite good enough, but I don't think this evidence is lynchworthy by itself either.

My guess is that we have three town left. The flavor is implying that we have reached very-nearly-doomed status, so I'm assuming the worst. Possibly the only thing going for us is that the SK now has to shoot for mafia and knows it.
Also since the flavor is implying that we're almost doomed, we need all the posts and definitely votes that we can get. Let's not have another day like yesterday.

[UniqueScreenname]

I'm somewhat confused about this ahammel thing. The only scenario I can think of that would make any sense of that would be a redirect, but I'll see if ParSetHis has any sort of insight. BoomFrog's roleblock is interesting. The D3 flavor poem didn't really say what happened to the Jabberwock, so I guess being roleblocked is as good a scenario as any. I have a lot of ideas about what could have happened last night, but I'd like to hear from everybody first so that a) mafia doesn't get any ideas, and b) more insight into the situation will help me figure out what actually happened. My D2 analysis had a whole lot of questions and requests for more participation, so I would like those to be answered, please.

[mpolo]

On Ahammel's power, if he asked which role was on the boat, was that a y/n or would it name who had it? Is there some way to clarify the result of KrO2 (and yes, I'm expecting a no comment, lol

If the role ahammel asked about were on the boat, a tracker would have seen him visiting that person. If he asked about a role that were not on the boat, a tracker would have seen that he was active, but had visited no one. Ahammel himself received no information other than a yes or no.

[Lataro]

The Bellman was nervous, kept ringing his Bell,
As a Bandersnatch came on the deck,
But the Jabberwock came like a bat out of Hell,
He thought it might just save his neck.

I think this VERY clearly indicates two kills on the same target. I don't see how others are not seeing how clearly this indicates it.

That said, onto less clear things. If it is not MYLO, then that clearly confirms three factions or more. Three seems undeniable, we have a SK and a mafia.

More clearly, we can not lynch the SK. I repeat, we CAN NOT LYNCH THE SK.

IF we lynch the SK, the mafia win by default. They'll NK someone, and it'll be 2 town/3 scum, assuming a three scum team, which seems very likely given D2 and D3 start info from the mod. Even if the NK fails, it'd be 3/3 the next day, and that'd be a NL per...

Ties will be decided by random.org unless all players are voting, in which case, they will be treated as a no-lynch.

And mafia would get another shot at a kill, resulting in a mafia win. Thus, it is completely against town's interest to see a SK lynched today. Mafia immediately wins if the SK is lynched.

Now, if we lynch town, N3 is 2/3/1 and if the mafia hit the SK, they win, regardless of who the SK hits. The mafia must not kill the SK tonight in order for town to not instantly lose.
If we lynch mafia, N3 is 3/2/1, if the mafia hits the SK, they only win if the SK hits town. Else, it's 3/1 going into D4, and it's MYLO.
If we lynch mafia as above, and the mafia hit's town, then it's pretty much anyone's game. This is the only chance the SK has of winning really. Mafia needs to get lynched, and the SK needs to hit mafia.

Now, on to why all that is very important to be made clear. I got a one-shot cop last night, and got an anti-town result. I don't want to lynch the SK. I want the SK to claim right now. If I don't get an SK claim within a reasonable length of time, I'm going to just announce who I got the result on, and hopefully they are not the SK, as it's a 25% chance it isn't, and we can go from there with the lynch. I want the SK to claim first though, since there is no doubt that the person I name will claim SK after I name them. I see it this way, if the SK claims now, that will make it more believable of a claim then after you got a result against you. If you don't claim now, and I have the result on you, then I will not believe your claim and take the 75% chance that it's mafia claiming SK in order to not die, and go for the lynch. Your call, decide now.

Now, on to the even more important part of myself. As I said, I got a one-shot cop last night. I have a number of powers, all one-shot. I have a one-shot cop, one-shot doc, and one-shot bus driver. I am the Broker, and able to "trade" my power each night, choosing one of those each night. I used my cop last night, and am claiming because I am safe tonight. I plan to use my bus driver on myself and another target of my choosing, so I can't be directly killed tonight, only if my other target is targeted instead.

Again SK, we need you, but you also need us. I really don't want to lynch you today since we can't win if you are lynched, and you can't win unless you help us eliminate the mafia today. I will not believe any claims of being the SK AFTER I reveal my target, since it's a claim that would obviously be made. You can roll the dice and keep quiet if you want, but you'll stand a 25% chance of being lynched today. I'm gonna give it until everyone has posted, or until this time tomorrow, since we do not have a lot of time here.

[KrO2]

First the obvious. Lataro could simply be lying. Mafia would want to know who the SK is even more than town would.

But also, assuming Lataro isn't lying, why would the SK claim now? No Claim: 25% chance of the cop result being on him, maybe 25% chance of mafia NK. About a 50-60% chance of being alive tomorrow. Claim: 0% chance of lynch, very high chance of mafia NK. We need to make sure it's in their best interest to help us, or they won't. Here's what I propose instead.

Since we don't know if we have a regular doctor, the only protection we can count on is Lataro's. Lataro, use the 1-shot doc on the SK (wow, that's a sentence I never expected to use) with probability of at least 75%. Flip two coins or use an RNG. Then it at least increases the likelihood of him getting through the night past what it would be if he did not claim.
If we have a more normal protective role, they should save Lataro since he probably won't be protecting himself.
The SK might not trust us to actually follow through on that. So I'll point out that we're so outnumbered we'll pretty much need him alive as long as we can keep him that way, and he wants to see the mafia at exactly one member before he turns on us.

But for now, FoS Lataro for completely forgetting about the mafia NK.

[ParSetHis]

Oh no I don't know what to do...

Well actually I'm going to just do it! I don't know if this is a bad idea. I am the beamish boy, and I'm a survivor who has to be alive at the end of the game to win. I have a one time ability to save myself from a nightkill and I haven't used it yet (that was a STRESSFUL decision!!! )

[fshfood]

ok. Since we have to be 100% correct on this I will

unvote

until we hear from everybody. I'm at work, and can't do a total analysis, but the role claim of an indie really makes me wonder what we have left here breakdown-wise.

[Servant-of_Christ]

Although unorthodox I think offering the sk protection is our best bet, because we cant risk killing him, and losing the game. Parsethis's claim seems unnecessary and suspicious

fos parsethis

[Lataro]

Well, I was going to offer more time here than this, however, the person I have a result on has posted, and posted contradictory to what I learned, and with an Aug 1st deadline, I'd rather not waste more time. In addition, the SK outing themselves now will not be helpful anymore.

PerSetHis was the one I got an anti-town result on.

Their claim of survivor is rather odd, however, it does not fit with the result I got. I asked in PM before posting this, and a survivor would not come up as anti-town to my cop power. Thus...

Vote: PerSetHis

[UniqueScreenname]

I as much suspected this. The Beamish Boy in the Jabberwock poem was the one that killed the Jabberwock. So a logical role for that would be Jabberwock lyncher, not plain old survivor. However, a response is of course deserved. PSH, anything that would stop me voting for you?

[BoomFrog]

I don't believe Lataro. First of all, his power is way too strong, where-as I would consider my power and the ones revealed on death to be less strong then a "typical" power. Secondly, it is almost never allowed for someone to protect themselves, and I don't think he can busdrive himself as a protection. This second one could have been a lie to try and protect himself while the rest is true but I don't think so. What makes a lot more sense to me is the following:

Lataro is the Jaberwacky and has known who the Beamish boy was from D1 but the beamish boy is immune to Jaberwacky attacks. This is supported by Lataro trying to build a case against Par from D1. (correct me if I'm reading that out of context but it seems like Lataro "picked up" on Par's "scummy" behavior that no one else was.)

So that means that we don't want to lynch the Beamish boy, but sadly we don't want to lynch the Jaberwacky either. I think fshfood is town and Kr02 has been trying to throw suspicion everywhere and sow distrust. SoC has also been too eager to vote imo. They are both likely scum. So the only unknown is if USN is with the Snarks or town. I doubt she is town because four town would not be such a desperate situation as mpolo stated.

So here's the deal. We lynch Kr02. Tonight the Jaberwacky kills SoC. If this happens and they were both Mafia then town will probably win. If town cannot win we will favor the Jaberwacky winning over the Snarks. If the Jaberwacky kills anyone besides SoC then town is screwed and will favor the Snarks winning.

I'll wait for feedback before actually voting. I want to wait to post this until after Per had a chance to reply to Lataro but the deadline is just too short for that.

[KrO2]

That sounds like a lot of speculation. Yes it does explain Lataro's actions, but not ParSetHis', and there are simpler explanations anyway. You're saying that for this to work the serial killer (Lataro) must be the jabberwock and the Beamish Boy must have precisely this power, which is not the one he claimed. Also Lataro must have been told who the Beamish Boy is, which isn't exactly a given. Snark didn't know cjquines' role.
If Lataro is lying I think he's more likely to be mafia trying to get us to mislynch against anyone. If Lataro is the SK and ParSetHis is telling the truth, then he should be trying to kill mafia, not survivor. Can a survivor and an SK win together? Even if they can't, this shouldn't be his priority.
Another possible reason for Lataro to lie that I just thought of is if he's a Beamish Boy lyncher. He could have used the alleged cop result against literally anyone, and lynched whoever the Beamish Boy is in the endgame. ParSetHis claiming just made it simpler.

When describing his plan, BF sounded surprisingly certain of everybody's alignment. I for one am not that sure and I doubt many other people are either.

I thought there were several holes in BF's post. That plus the very certain plan based on some faulty reasoning earns an FoS.

SoC, thanks for not using the capitalization in that FoS. I finally figured out how to parse this.

I guess I might as well also use my innocent child ability now and prove I'm town! Actually I don't have an innocent child ability, but I can still prove I'm town! It's an argument so powerful that you might want to shield your eyes from its blinding power while I use it to Prove I'm Town!

Spoiler:

It's not actually in the spoiler.

My claim can't be false. I asked about ahammel targeting ParSetHis at the beginning of the Day. If I were not a tracker, I could not have known that that could have occurred. mpolo then confirmed that ahammel did in fact have an ability that might show up as targeting someone. The only way I could possibly have said that ahammel targeted someone is if I am in fact a tracker.

[ParSetHis]

Lataro is lying, I don't know what else to say...

AAAHHH! I think I lost. Lataro or whoever the jabberwocky is will kill me tonight i bet.

Well, I suppose I have some hope for winning. If there is 3 mafia, then they can side with me and lynch lataro.

Vote: Lataro

[ParSetHis]

Oh wait I didn't see KrO2's post. The thing is, I know that the jabberwocky wants me dead. I don't know why I claimed, that was really stupid.

[fshfood]

I'm not sure what to think at this point.

Lataro's claim does seem a little overpowered.

To me SOC/Eculc has been a lot more scummy than KrO2. I would almost prefer a lynch in that direction barring SOC coming and actually giving any actual content. I'm also thinking USN has been acting townie. Sorry to say boomfrog, you are replacing someone that was being a pretty scummy lurker.

I want to hear ParSetHis's response. Right now, I would lean towards an SOC lynch .. and maybe the Jabberwoky can take care of another scum.

[fshfood]

EBWOP - holy smokes .. mega ninja'd and it didn't show up that way .. let me read everything between boomfrog and my previous post and get some more content up.

[UniqueScreenname]

While I don't particularly trust Lataro, I also don't trust ParSetHis' claim for the reason I said before. So let me ask her this question. How do you know the Jabberwock wants you dead?

[fshfood]

Ok .. here are my thoughts for now:

I think we might be in a 3/2/1/1 situation right now .. 3 town, 2 scum, 1 SK, 1 Indie. If that is the case, and ParSetHis is really the indie, we need her help for the lynch.

So, if this is the case and we can lynch scum, ParSetHis can use her 1-shot night kill protection, I can roleblock either the suspected SK or the other suspected scum, and maybe if we have a doctor of some sort, we can get through the night, and maybe have a chance tomorrow.

I know, big ifs, but I'm just throwing out ideas.

[ParSetHis]

How do you know the Jabberwock wants you dead?

Well I'm not really sure, but I received a little poem with my role that makes it sound like I'm fighting or hiding from the jabberwock (eyes of flame, on the beast came). but I don't have anything to fight him with, so I guess he's trying to kill me, or something.

So, if this is the case and we can lynch scum, ParSetHis can use her 1-shot night kill protection, I can roleblock either the suspected SK or the other suspected scum, and maybe if we have a doctor of some sort, we can get through the night, and maybe have a chance tomorrow.

I'm embarrassed because I forgot about my immunity to nightkill before. I still want to lynch the jabberwocky though (even though I guess no one else wants to ).

[Lataro]

How convenient of a claim to be making, and that you have a buddy in BF supporting your POV.

At this point, I'm convinced that PerSetHis is mafia, and BF is a scum buddy. I find it far more reasonable to assume that PerSetHis had a power that can inform them of who targeted them at night, and after my post, knew she would be exposed, so she false claimed something that might explain the cop result before I posted that I had targeted her. The only problem for her is, I confirmed with the mod that a survivor would not give an anti-town reply.

I'm not going to further comment on my powers, as I'd like to live, and find it suspicious that BF is trying to turn the discussion around to if my power can self target or not, which does not help town at all to have discussed. Either that is true as I said it, or it's not, and probing that does nothing for town's benefit.

I'm convinced that PerSetHis is mafia, and that BF is a scum buddy, and would make an excellent target for the SK.

BTW: deadline in less than a day here, I'd appreciate it if we didn't have a tied votal, or that it wasn't made easy for the scum team to pile me at the end of the day and win.

[Servant-of_Christ]

On vacation, will post tonight.

[UniqueScreenname]

Ok, in just a little while I'll be getting my wisdom teeth out, and I'm not sure how lucid I'll be tomorrow, so I want to vote now. Regardless of Lataro's claim, I don't believe ParSetHis. So far all the roles we've known have had a very appropriate power for their role. Hers doesn't go, and I also can't imagine we would have so many indies in this game. I also think someone who really knew the Jabberwock was after them would never have claimed when all of the discussion was about saving the jabberwock. I don't much care about the cop result, since as far as I know they could both be lying, but I'm way more sure of PSH being scum.
Vote: ParSetHis

[ParSetHis]

I knew claiming was going to be risky... my husband told me to do it!!! that jerk!

Well, I will vote for anyone other than me. Lataro seems like the best target since I know he's either a snark or a jabberwock. but I'm desperate not to be lynched so I'll vote for anyone.

Good luck getting your wisdom teeth out!!! I got mine out a couple years ago, it was... interesting.

[mpolo]

Votals:

ParSetHis (2): Lataro, UniqueScreenname
Lataro (1): ParSetHis

7 alive, 4 to lynch. Deadline 01.08. 18:00 UTC.

[BoomFrog]

Lataro is clearly the Jaberwack and has some anti-Beamish Boy motivation from D1. "Per had a self-watcher" is a far less likely explanation, and honestly Per doesn't seem savvy enough to pull off much of a deception. Also Beamish boy is very likely role to be in the game and there's been no counter claim despite everyone claiming freely, so I belive Per is the Beamish Boy, although I'm not sure if she is indy or town. She does seem genuinely indy now, which is great news. If we have 3 town and an indy we still have a lame majority.

I have no problem lynching SoC first if you are more confident he is scum.

@Kr02: That proves that you are a tracker and probably didn't execute the kill last night, but that doesn't prove that you are not mafia.

Sorry to say boomfrog, you are replacing someone that was being a pretty scummy lurker.

They got replaced for not participating. That's not "scummy lurking" that's simply "lurking". The player obviously didn't have a sufficient commitment to participate in the game but that really doesn't make them more likely to be scum. Scummy lurking is when someone is unusually lurky compared to how they normally play.

Also, considering town has mislynched twice now I'd say that's good evidence that your more active players are scum.

@Lataro: If you are town, then you can agree that there are 3-4 scum and we need to lynch perfectly every day from now on, so there's no hurry to lynch Per today, we can lynch other scum first. If you are killed then your cop result is confirmed so this affords you some measure of protection. Assuming you are the Jaberwack of course, then if you don't change your vote to the clearly scummy SoC then I will change my vote to you since you're dooming town to lose. Vote mafia with us and it's still anyone's game.

Vote: SoC

@Per: Vote SoC for now, if Lataro doesn't cooperate we will lynch him instead.

@USN: Per may be lying about powers and win condition but she is clearly the beamish boy, which is not a snark or Jaberwack. Don't you think lynching SoC would be better for town.

[ParSetHis]

OK

unvote

vote: SoC

[Lataro]

I'm not following scum's lead.

I know my vote is on actual scum, I got the result saying so.

More buddy and following from the above.