1190: "Time"

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby partingLance » Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:46 pm UTC

BlitzGirl wrote:
Ximenez wrote:
mscha wrote:
Ximenez wrote:EDIT 2: OF course, the star means no clouds, no smoke, just Randallized (heresy?) sunset.

I respectfully disagree.
On a clear night, up in the hills, away from civilization, there'd be many, many more stars to be seen. Must be pretty hazy if only one star or planet manages to shine through it.
This, or all the other stars are eclipsed by flying birds.

We just have to wait for true knightfall. That's when all the Temporal Knights fall out of the sky so the stars can be seen.


Blindpost fron NP 946 (damn OutsideH with its demands -- even so, I'm still questing away on the Chronicle of Firsts, as Time Outside timeH allows. And not skipping any NPs or posts thereon, nuther):

ObCanCon1967: in The Divine Ryans, by Wayne Johnston, a father tells his son this story. Where you see a star, it's really where a hockey puck has been punched out of the firmament. On the Last Day, all the remaining pucks will rain down to earth, and the firmament will completely collapse, revealing the infinite heavenly light beyond.

It'll be the the apuckolypse.1999

As you were; carry on; pip-pip, tally-ho, etc., etc.

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1999 If you expect me to apologize for this, forget it. Take it up with Johnston.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby EraObserver » Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:49 pm UTC

Question:
Everyone keeps saying that the moon has flown off. I'm not a scientist, but I saw a show that demonstrated how the moon keeps our planet on the axis it is on. It stated that after its inevitable escape from our planet, or planet would start to wobble and eventually life would be impossible to sustain.

So if the moon is gone, how long till that starts? And if that happened, how can we know how far in the future it is?
*Insert witty comment*

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Angua » Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:55 pm UTC

I want to know why it isn't just a new moon?
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby HES » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:01 pm UTC

Angua wrote:I want to know why it isn't just a new moon?

I think it's to do with the direction we're facing, and where a new moon would have to be in relation to the sun.

That said, I'm not buying this far-future theory. Too many assumptions about what we're seeing and how accurately it was drawn, and while I trust our companions are skilled in the field, it must be easy to mess something up in the calculations. I suppose I'm an anti-futurist Randallversian.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby edfel » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:04 pm UTC

EraObserver wrote:Question:
Everyone keeps saying that the moon has flown off. I'm not a scientist, but I saw a show that demonstrated how the moon keeps our planet on the axis it is on. It stated that after its inevitable escape from our planet, or planet would start to wobble and eventually life would be impossible to sustain.

So if the moon is gone, how long till that starts? And if that happened, how can we know how far in the future it is?


Just to precise things up a bit: the moon doesn't seem to have disappeared, it's just not in the current field of view (it was also first used to infirm the "november 7th" hypothesis (hence the speculation about its disappearance to keep this hypothesis, but the position of jupiter and the directions of the stars (compared e.g. to the milky way) rule out the nov. 7th hypothesis in any case)

Anyway... what would happen if the moon decided to get away? I suppose it depends a lot on how it goes. Putting a lot of rocket engines on one side and pushing it out of its orbit? you'd have problems with exhausted gas from the rockets earlier (the mass of the gas would have to be comparible to the mass of the moon....) Other method? I've got no idea whatsoever.

Angua wrote:I want to know why it isn't just a new moon?

1- I don't think there is a black circle large enough in the sky
2- a new moon's got to be close to the sun http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_moon
Whatever phase the moon is in, it is out of frame (but it might be a new moon, just not in sight)
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:10 pm UTC

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Angua » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:20 pm UTC

A new moon isn't a black circle though - it's just when the sun and moon are rising and setting at the same time. The moon would be under the horizon at the same time as the sun.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby edfel » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:40 pm UTC

Angua wrote:A new moon isn't a black circle though - it's just when the sun and moon are rising and setting at the same time. The moon would be under the horizon at the same time as the sun.

Indeed (cf. my point 2). So all we can say is that "no moon is present in the frame", which is sufficient to eliminate certain dates.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Rule110 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:45 pm UTC

k.bookbinder wrote:Good mornix all. Molpy up!

What has Cueball just gathered? Stones? I see that, with no moon as reference, it seems nearly impossible to come to some consensus as to where and when they might be located, though, all analysis seems to get everyone in the same general latitudinal range.

Again though, I must ask, because I am still not quite satisfied, regarding our direction as observers: Is everyone assuming that, as we are observing Time, we are facing West and are parallel with latitudinal lines? Because we are not a part of Time, but apart from it, if we were faced Northwest or West by Northwest, would that not change the relative celestial positions, and therefore, change the outcome of the analysis?


We are assuming that we're facing generally west, because that's where the sun set.

We are not assuming that we're facing exactly west. In fact, the current apparent consensus (or at least, majority position) is that we are facing a little bit north of west, and that west is approximately toward the trunk of the prominent tree. Why we think that is a little hard to explain, but here goes.

Seaish explantion follows.
Spoiler:
Suppose you wanted to draw pictures of how the stars move. You go out on a clear night with a toilet paper tube (because you want to mask out distractions, and you don't trust lenses), and you look through it (for hours at a time, long enough for the stars to move a long way in the sky) in different directions. As it happens, you're in the northern hemisphere at a moderate latitude, like in central Illinois. (If you were elsewhere, such as Australia, the individual pictures would look different, but the overall phenomena described would work the same.)

If you look northwest, you'll see the stars moving like this:
starviews_nw.png
starviews_nw.png (7.75 KiB) Viewed 14031 times


Why? Because you're looking at the lower left quadrant of this:
Image
Which is the northern stars circling counterclockwise around a hub near Polaris. which is visible to you in the northern sky. (That is, if you point your toilet paper tube due north, and up at about a 40 degree angle, you'll see the North Star and other stars making counterclocwise circles around it, like near the top right of the above photo). That hub is the projection of the earth's axis of rotation onto the apparent celestial sphere.

If you look southwest, you'll see the stars moving like this instead:
starviews_sw.png
starviews_sw.png (6.99 KiB) Viewed 14031 times


This is because, like in the northwest view, you're seeing stars rotating around a hub, in this case the celestial south pole. It looks different, though, for two reasons. One is that in this case the hub is well below the horizon, so you're seeing the upper right quadrant of the rotation instead of the lower left quadrant. The other is that the rotation is clockwise instead of counterclockwise. (The celestial sphere is one big rotating thing that all rotates in the same direction, but you're now looking toward the other end of it. Imagine standing inside a giant barrel placed horizontally and tumbling, that is, rotating around its axis. These used to be commmon in funhouses. Suppose the barrel is rotating counterclockwise as you face toward the end of the barrel that's ahead of you. If you turn around and look behind you, it will be rotating counterclockwise. Clockwise and counterclockwise are always relative to your facing. Even the hands of a conventional clock would go counterclockwise, if the workings of the clock were transparent and you looked at the hands from behind the clock face.)

Finally, you look due west. You'll see the stars moving like this:
starviews_w.png
starviews_w.png (6.95 KiB) Viewed 14031 times


These stars are near the celestial equator. They're making circles too, just like the northern stars and the southern stars, but for these circles, you're standing at the center of the circles. You are standing on (or so near as to make literally no difference at all, a mere few thousand miles compared to the effectively infinite distances of the stars) the axis they're rotating around. So their paths appear to be straight lines, just like a disc appears to be a straight line when you look at it edge-on, and just like the horizon appears to be a straight line even though it is encircling you.

However, if you could measure more closely (you'd have to mount your toilet paper tube on a sturdy tripod, instead of free-handing it resulting in the wiggly and not very accurate lines I drew), only stars that are exactly on the celestial equator make exactly straight lines. For the ones a little south (left) of the equator, you're standing a little to the right of the centers of their circles, so they'll appear to curve away from you just a little to the left as they set. And similarly for the ones a little north (right) of the equator; they'll appear to curve away from you just a little to the right as they set.

Now, having studied the motions of the stars in three different directions, you decide you want to plaint a big panorama painting that shows all that motion on one wide canvas. You don't want to distort anything; you want the painting to show what you actually see, so star trails way to the left of the painting (southwest) will curve more and more to the left as they get nearer the horizon, and star trails way to the right will curve more and more to the right as they get nearer the horizon, and star trails near the middle (west) will be nearly straight. You want a realistic painting (no cubism), so you realize that you need to show this as a continuous change across the width of the canvas, from left-curving to straight to right-curving.

As a result, the star trails you paint will not be parallel to one another. The trails will squeeze together near the center of the painting (especially, along a line from the lower left to the upper right corners), and seem to spread apart at the lower right and upper left corners, in the same way (and for the same reason) that many world map projections seem to squeeze the continents together near the equator and spread them apart nearer the poles.

If instead of a very wide panorama, you want only a typical wide angle camera view generally toward the west, the squeezing and spreading will be less dramatic, but you'll still see, going left to right across the frame, star trails curving to the left, then curving less, then straight, then curving right, then curving right more.

The effect will be something like this:

Image

Note that this picture is looking east, where everything is rising instead of setting, and therefore is also tilted the opposite way, but it works the same way. This link to the image source has an explanation of what it shows and how it was made. Quoting the page, the image "shows very well how the stars near the celestial Equator trace lines that are almost straight, while the stars at the North and South of the Equator, respectively, appear to draw circles between the celestial North and South poles."

Now, I turn your attention to edfel's excellent "time lapse" composite image of the OTC:

Image

It shows all the things I've been talking about. The star trails curve to the right (as they get closer to setting) toward the right (more northerly) side of the frame. The farther right, the more they curve, but where they cross the tree they're curving very little, and the (rather faint) star trail that crosses near the base of the trunk of the tree looks very straight. The trails farthest left (also rather faint) curve to the left instead, though you might have to use a straightedge or a line drawing program to see it.

This makes me confident (though not absolutely certain) that the celestial equator crosses near the base of the tree trunk, and where that meets the horizon (which might not be exactly where it meets the visible ground) is true west.

There is another possibility: that the view is distorted; that is to say, distorted in a different way than what we usually expect. It would be possible, for instance, to find a projection (or physically craft a lens) that creates a view where one of the curved lines toward the right becomes straight. Then, we'd be fooled into thinking that's the celestial equator instead. That's why we sometimes qualify our conclusions with "...unless it's a projection error."

*puts down chalk* Any questions?
Last edited by Rule110 on Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:01 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby ttscp » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:47 pm UTC

edfel wrote:
Angua wrote:A new moon isn't a black circle though - it's just when the sun and moon are rising and setting at the same time. The moon would be under the horizon at the same time as the sun.

Indeed (cf. my point 2). So all we can say is that "no moon is present in the frame", which is sufficient to eliminate certain dates.

Angua's point is a good one. Is it possible that the moon was ahead of the sun? Did any of the astronomers do that calculation? (I realize I'm saying the same thing as you are, edfel, just with a different emphasis)

Edit: correct edfel, which had been corrected to excel by software.
Edit2: add closing parenthesis
Last edited by ttscp on Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:27 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby TimeLurker » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:51 pm UTC

BigDaddy wrote:Could Randall have sold out and this is viral marketing for After Earth?

Keep watching the skies and wait for it.

I find this extremely unlikely. If GLR had actually "sold out" he could make a fortune in the One True Store selling any number of T-Shirt, button, and poster ideas that we've come up with here. I for one would buy a T-Shirt with the first scene and "Wait for it." written underneath.

Seriously, GLR, if you do have ears in the OTT. If you sell it, I will buy it.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Rule110 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:56 pm UTC

ttscp wrote:
edfel wrote:
Angua wrote:A new moon isn't a black circle though - it's just when the sun and moon are rising and setting at the same time. The moon would be under the horizon at the same time as the sun.

Indeed (cf. my point 2). So all we can say is that "no moon is present in the frame", which is sufficient to eliminate certain dates.

Angua's point is a good one. Is it possible that the moon was ahead of the sun? Did any of the astronomers do that calculation? (I realize I'm saying the same thing as you are, edfel, just with a different emphasis

Edit: correct edfel, which had been corrected to excel by software.


Absolutely possible.

Statistically, if you choose a random night (and there are no clouds), it's very likely though not quite certain that the moon will appear somewhere in the sky sometime during the night. The exception would be a new moon day, though you still might catch that in the sky during sunrise or sunset, so it partly depends on how you define "night." However, if you're limited to looking only at the western sky, the likelihood decreases to just a little better than 50-50 (more, the wider your view is). The moon might have set just ahead of the sun, or it might have set 8 hours ahead of the sun, and now be rising in the eastern sky, but still not make it onto the frame by sunrise.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby TheMinim » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:04 pm UTC

Back on page 199 there is talk of the text directly beneath the name. It is fairly interesting talk.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby BlitzGirl » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:06 pm UTC

Zorin_75 wrote:Somehow I have trouble buying into the 13291 thing. I think it's just as likely that GLR is the type of guy who couldn't stand to have a physically incorrect starry background as his webcomic's backdrop, yet doesn't want to give away an exact time and place either (would also be much less fun if we knew were we were, I think). So he probably just punched an absurd date into his software to mess with us. See the current othercomic...

I have the same problem. I don't think the date is completely absurd - GLR knows his sunsets and astronomy - but I wonder if maybe the stardate (heh) is supposed to be a hint/clue to something else unrelated to the setting. 11,000 years in the future feels too much like a good case of nerdsniping to me. I'm not ruling it out, but I'm not convinced.

Of course, perhaps I'm just a little worn out by all the astronomical speculation. Image
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby macraw83 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:07 pm UTC

Blitz progress: 681 of 969
Back to the river, np 1511, found baobabs7

Regarding baobabs... I'm sure SOMEONE had to have had this idea at some point, but I've read 5 pages and haven't seen anyone say it. When they're seeing these trees from a distance, they're only seeing the tops of the trees. At that point, they actually look like normal trees, and might just think that the ground keeps rising.

Also, I know I keep saying I'm not going to do these, but I keep finding things I want to say...

2 Pastpost responses:
@Sciscitor:
Spoiler:
Sciscitor wrote:Ok some new things after playing with my new data metric.
First the list of the 100 top creative Timewaiters (not accounting for creativity outside the OTT like websites, pictures, playlists, wikis etc.). The list differs in minor but interesting ways from Kieryn's1 here. The number in parenthesis is the One True Accumulated Creative Score (or short OTACS).
1. StratPlayer (245560)
2. mscha (228643)
3. KarMann (201089)
4. BlitzGirl (197785)
.
.
.
37. macraw83 (48323)
.
.
.

Hey, I'm a lot higher on this list than I would have expected... though I'm sure I'm much lower by now.


@ucim:
Spoiler:
ucim wrote:
Chapter 6


The Quest was not going well.
.
.
.
The second scribe handed the Pope a scroll, saying, "I discovered this as we were leaving on this quest. It was hidden in the Fountain Room." The Pope took the scroll, and unrolled it. It was empty, save for one inscription:

macraw83: 525 of 666

.
.
.
His words echoed in his head: "macraw83 is going to be fine." He wished he could believe it.

I wish I could believe it too... alas, I am now twice as far in the Past as I was even at that point.


ETA: Almost forgot, I have witnessed Vytron's arrival in the Present! Most encouraging news of the dip.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby BlitzGirl » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:08 pm UTC

Why is the night so LONG?

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby sidd » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:13 pm UTC

Consider me nerdsniped. The far-futurist Randallversian theory is premised on what looks like axial precession, but could well just be a rendering mistake. In the spirit of keeping anti-far-futurist Randallversians happy, I started looking for a suitable near future date. To help the search, I'm trying out the wonderful PyEphem library to find dates where the planets are where we think they are:

Code: Select all

                                       
import ephem

cueball = ephem.Observer()
start_date = ephem.date('1900/01/01')

skip = False
for i in range(1000000):
    cueball.date = start_date + i
    j = ephem.Jupiter(cueball)
    v = ephem.Venus(cueball)
    s = ephem.Sun(cueball)

    if (ephem.constellation(v)[1] == "Sagittarius" and
        ephem.constellation(j)[1] == "Aquarius" and
        ephem.constellation(s)[1] == "Libra"):
        if not skip:
            print cueball.date
            skip = True
    else:
        skip = False


The first one is not until 2045, but after this they repeat every 24 years for about 300 years, and then break for about 200, and then start repeating again, and so on The first few are 2045/11/03, 2069/11/04, 2093/11/06

The next step is to examine these dates in Stellarium, and cycle foreward a few days until the planets align. Keep trying until you find a combination that has Jupiter and Venus in exactly the right positions, and yet which does not have the Moon or other planets "in frame".

There is also the possibility that either Jupiter or Venus are incorrect, and I'm not 100% sure that the Sun is in Libra... :)
Last edited by sidd on Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:20 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:19 pm UTC

Rule110 wrote:Seaish explantion follows.
(snip)

Thanks for that excellent explanation, Rule110! (And thanks in general to all astronomy types who've been doing all the analysis this past hectonewpix or so.)
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby edfel » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:29 pm UTC

BlitzGirl wrote:Why is the night so LONG?
Spoiler:
Image

So that we can enjoy it all the more :)
We've got a couple2 of daysH till sunrise... and we don't know how long they'll sleep after that...

In the meantime, here's an update of the time laps
Image
Spoiler:
out5.png


@Rule110 That was an excellent explanation! I always love blackboards drawings, it's even better with all the pictures and all :)
As a remark concerning distortion: we could know how the image is distorted: take a clear enough frame, take the same scene into stellarium, ignore planets, try several projections in stellarium, return best match. Repeat for 5 different frames. I don't feel like doing that now...

@sidd
sidd wrote:Consider me nerdsniped. The far-futurist Randallversian theory is premised on what looks like axial precession, but could well just be a rendering mistake. In the spirit of keeping anti-far-futurist Randallversians happy, I started looking for a suitable near future date. To help the search, I'm trying out the wonderful PyEphem library to find dates where the planets are where we think they are:
Spoiler:

Code: Select all

import datetime                                         
import ephem

cueball = ephem.Observer()
start_date = ephem.date('1900/01/01')

skip = False
for i in range(1000000):
    cueball.date = start_date + i
    j = ephem.Jupiter(cueball)
    v = ephem.Venus(cueball)
    s = ephem.Sun(cueball)

    if (ephem.constellation(v)[1] == "Sagittarius" and
        ephem.constellation(j)[1] == "Aquarius" and
        ephem.constellation(s)[1] == "Libra"):
        if not skip:
            print cueball.date
            skip = True
    else:
        skip = False

The first one is not until 2045, but after this they repeat every 24 years for about 300 years, and then break for about 200, and then start repeating again, and so on The first few are 2045/11/03, 2069/11/04, 2093/11/06

The next step is to examine these dates in Stellarium, and cycle foreward a few days until the planets align. Keep trying until you find a combination that has Jupiter and Venus in exactly the right positions, and yet which does not have the Moon or other planets "in frame".

There is also the possibility that either Jupiter or Venus are incorrect, and I'm not 100% sure that the Sun is in Libra... :)


I don't know PyEphem (nor Python actually, but that's easy enough to follow)... so what does it output exactly? the dates where the given stars are "in" the correct constellations?
So I guess it's not taking into account the displacement of the celestial equator (which is what lead in the first place to consider far-off dates)?
BTW, I'm definitely nerd-snipped too. But that's been true since I started on the map, so now I'm used to it :)

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby HereBeUnmappedBits » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:31 pm UTC

Personally I like the night. It's both a good moment for Cueball and a nice breather after the drama of the meowlpy attack. The stars are also pretty neat.

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:33 pm UTC

BlitzGirl wrote:Why is the night so LONG?

And it has barely started. Image Assuming 5 minutesI per newpix, only about 4½ hoursI have past, out of 12 hoursI or more – if it is indeed autumn. (Could one of the astronomers present please confirm or correct this, based on the stars?)
But I'm sure that we won't have to wait for the entire night to pass in this pace. Something will happen before then, either within the OTC (Lucky?) or with the OTC (speeding up, skipping?). But maybe that's just wishful thinking.

HereBeUnmappedBits wrote:Personally I like the night. It's both a good moment for Cueball and a nice breather after the drama of the meowlpy attack. The stars are also pretty neat.

Me too. For a while. But it's been [heresy]two days[/heresy], time for a change!
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby HES » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:37 pm UTC

BlitzGirl wrote:Why is the night so LONG?

GLR is allowing us to emotionally connect with the character (cueball) through mutual boredom/frustration/longing
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby nsub1 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:38 pm UTC

Rule110 wrote:This talk of multi-millennial axial precession reminds me again of The Clock of the Long Now. That would be as neat and wow a thing as
Spoiler:
an astronomical observatory
for Megan and Cueball to find atop the mountain. The current active and planned clock locations for the Long Now project are both in North American desert regions that could (thousands of yfn) match the ecology seen. Both locations are also many hundreds of miles inland. But, sea levels can change too...

I want to bring this back up because I am definitely now a Horologist (from the Latin for clock). If you look at the strip of land in the map edfel posted÷, it looks pretty good with the final location of the Clock of the Long Now at Mount Washington in Nevada.

÷I'd include a link to it, but I'm too new of a poster to do any of that fancy stuff. :(

EDIT: I also forgot: could it be possible that rising water levels might have to do with the slow failure of an upstream dam? I'm less enthused with that idea than the Clock, but I wanted to throw it out there.

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby ttscp » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:44 pm UTC

BlitzGirl wrote:
Zorin_75 wrote:Somehow I have trouble buying into the 13291 thing...

I have the same problem. I don't think the date is completely absurd - GLR knows his sunsets and astronomy - but I wonder if maybe the stardate (heh) is supposed to be a hint/clue to something else unrelated to the setting. 11,000 years in the future feels too much like a good case of nerdsniping to me. I'm not ruling it out, but I'm not convinced.

Of course, perhaps I'm just a little worn out by all the astronomical speculation. Image
I'll be happy when the Long Night is finally over.

The story teller in me agrees. Where and when the story happens isn't that relevant to most plots I can think of (even Always Coming Home works in a variety of places and futures), and the difference between 500, 5,000, or 10,000 can be reasonably explained in a few sentences.

On the other hand Randall is consistent. I don't think he'd populate the landscape with inconsistent flora and fauna or choose a star map inconsistent with that landscape, even if it meant going 13,000 years into the future. (Thought, Randall could have chosen any date, however, so it is reasonable to look for some significance.)

The storyteller in me also agrees that it is time to move on. Let's have sunrise, a meteor, a molpy (that they can defend against), or something.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Marsh'n » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:48 pm UTC

Rule110 wrote:Seaish explantion follows.
.
.
.
*puts down chalk* Any questions?


Yes, professor Rule! When are you publishing your astronomy textbook?
That was an awesomefully good explanation of something even an interplanetary traveller like myself often fails to grasp in its somefullness.
In other words, 7.

ETA: It is interesting to note that the Clock of the Long Now has been with us (by reference) since NP2 - a shout out to mercutio_stencil if you're still with us, thanks for staying up all night collecting the early images!
FWIW: I am beginning a new (for me, at least) effort that I am calling a counterblitz, because it is a) slow and b) proceeding from opposite ends of the thread. I will update my location to reflect when I have a real leopard to type on.

7: wow!
Last edited by Marsh'n on Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:59 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby sidd » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:57 pm UTC

edfel wrote:I don't know PyEphem (nor Python actually, but that's easy enough to follow)... so what does it output exactly? the dates where the given stars are "in" the correct constellations?
So I guess it's not taking into account the displacement of the celestial equator (which is what lead in the first place to consider far-off dates)?
BTW, I'm definitely nerd-snipped too. But that's been true since I started on the map, so now I'm used to it :)


Yep, it outputs the first in each run of consecutive dates where the Sun and planets are "in" the correct constellations. It should take into account the displacement of the celestial equator if you plug in far-off dates, but for now I'm working on the assumption that the displacement in OTC was [heresy]unintentional[/heresy] (maybe this technique will disprove that theory). It doesn't report the same results as Stellarium for far off dates, but as others mentioned, the relative positions of the planets 10,000 years into the future might not be predictable, even with the fanciest of software.

Another improvement that I haven't done yet is to explicitly check that the Moon and Mars are not in any of the constellations that we have seen so far.

It's a very cool library, and there's probably a lot more it can do that I don't understand yet.
Last edited by sidd on Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:04 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Rule110 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:58 pm UTC

BlitzGirl wrote:Of course, perhaps I'm just a little worn out by all the astronomical speculation. Image
I'll be happy when the Long Night is finally over.


We could try astrological speculation instead.

For instance, it looks like Venus will soon be moving into Scorpio. Randall's trying to tell us there are sexy times ahead for Megan and Cueball! Nudge nudge :wink: :wink:.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:00 pm UTC

ttscp wrote:On the other hand Randall is consistent. I don't think he'd populate the landscape with inconsistent flora and fauna or choose a star map inconsistent with that landscape, even if it meant going 13,000 years into the future. (Thought, Randall could have chosen any date, however, so it is reasonable to look for some significance.)

But He did populate the landscape with inconsistent flora and fauna! We have Grandidier's Baobab that only occurs on Madagascar, and a squirpy, pokeymolp and meowpy that don't. Much of the flora and fauna points to sub-equatorial Africa, but the stars put us well onto the northern hemisphere.
(Of course, 11,000 years may make a difference; it's enough time to plant a few baobabs in California, for instance.)

I think we can safely say that there is no way Time takes place in a consistent, present-day Earth, place and time.

I'm now firmly in the Randallverse camp. There might be, and knowing the GLR, probably will be, local areas of consistency, but I don't think it's possible to come up with an overall consistent location and date.
(Hmm, Cassini Madagascar in the future might still be a sorta consistent option, though.)
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby SBN » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:02 pm UTC

mscha wrote:
HereBeUnmappedBits wrote:Personally I like the night. It's both a good moment for Cueball and a nice breather after the drama of the meowlpy attack. The stars are also pretty neat.

Me too. For a while. But it's been [heresy]two days[/heresy], time for a change!

It does make it a good time to go scroll through looking for unspoilered spoilers. If anyone wants to join in NPs 300-560 could use a second look, and above that haven't even been checked once. (TheMinum made me realized I'd missed some my first time through, so I started over again.)
It is a bit sad seeing avatars we don't see anymore though.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby ttscp » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:07 pm UTC

nsub1 wrote:
Rule110 wrote:This talk of multi-millennial axial precession reminds me again of The Clock of the Long Now. That would be as neat and wow a thing as
Spoiler:
an astronomical observatory
for Megan and Cueball to find atop the mountain. The current active and planned clock locations for the Long Now project are both in North American desert regions that could (thousands of yfn) match the ecology seen. Both locations are also many hundreds of miles inland. But, sea levels can change too...

I want to bring this back up because I am definitely now a Horologist (from the Latin for clock). If you look at the strip of land in the map edfel posted÷, it looks pretty good with the final location of the Clock of the Long Now at Mount Washington in Nevada.

÷I'd include a link to it, but I'm too new of a poster to do any of that fancy stuff. :(

EDIT: I also forgot: could it be possible that rising water levels might have to do with the slow failure of an upstream dam? I'm less enthused with that idea than the Clock, but I wanted to throw it out there.


Welcome nsub1. Here's the link to wikipedia. Not sure if that was the link you intended, but it mentions the location.

I'm not so sure about the clock's inclusion in the OTC. Not many hints point that way. For example, I'd make the year 10,000, if I wanted to foreshadow the clock.

Something else about a far future time. We haven't seen ruins. Abandoned things, but not ruins.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Eutychus » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:07 pm UTC

TheMinim wrote:Back on page 199 there is talk of the text directly beneath the name. It is fairly interesting talk.
So does anyone have a quick and simple way of reaching page 199?
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Eutychus » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:09 pm UTC

AmONG other things...

Image
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Angua » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:11 pm UTC

Eutychus wrote:
TheMinim wrote:Back on page 199 there is talk of the text directly beneath the name. It is fairly interesting talk.
So does anyone have a quick and simple way of reaching page 199?


http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=101043&start=7920

Last number is [page wanted-1]*40
Last edited by Angua on Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:12 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Flado » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:11 pm UTC

ttscp wrote:They are falling from about 18000 feet at 90 miles per hour [≈ Typical peak speed of a local service train (or intercity on lower standard tracks).]

That extension is really fun :-)

Edited after a bit more ketchup:
Dracomax wrote:You mean Falling about 4500 Cue at 79200 Cue/Timeframe

Too bad the extension does not grok the true units... If we get an update that does, it will be incontrovertible proof that GLR's friend does read the OTT :!:

Edit2:
BlitzGirl wrote:4.5 kq at 79.2 kq/tf

Nice try, but no. Nope. No reaction from the extension.
Last edited by Flado on Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:33 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby ttscp » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:16 pm UTC

mscha wrote:
ttscp wrote:On the other hand Randall is consistent. I don't think he'd populate the landscape with inconsistent flora and fauna or choose a star map inconsistent with that landscape, even if it meant going 13,000 years into the future. (Thought, Randall could have chosen any date, however, so it is reasonable to look for some significance.)

But He did populate the landscape with inconsistent flora and fauna! We have Grandidier's Baobab that only occurs on Madagascar, and a squirpy, pokeymolp and meowpy that don't. Much of the flora and fauna points to sub-equatorial Africa, but the stars put us well onto the northern hemisphere.
(Of course, 11,000 years may make a difference; it's enough time to plant a few baobabs in California, for instance.)

I think we can safely say that there is no way Time takes place in a consistent, present-day Earth, place and time.

I'm now firmly in the Randallverse camp. There might be, and knowing the GLR, probably will be, local areas of consistency, but I don't think it's possible to come up with an overall consistent location and date.
(Hmm, Cassini Madagascar in the future might still be a sorta consistent option, though.)

It does appear inconsistent, I agree, but it could be Cassini Madagascar, or an 11 to 13 thousand year migration of flora or even a made up Randallverse, but I still think he'd try to be as accurate in depicting that universe as possible.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby eta oin shrdlu » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:24 pm UTC

Kieryn wrote:
eta oin shrdlu wrote:Here's a Stellarium picture of the date (13291/04/14) I proposed above:[...]


If this is what we're talking about I have some sad news...
http://kieryn.com/xkcd-time/img/13291.png

I suspect different versions give different results.
This is from the win 64bit version. Essentially, I think at that far in the future the stars positions are predictable, but the planets are subject to complete chaos. There's no way of knowing where they will be.
There does seem to have been a change in Stellarium's behavior. My screenshots used an older version (0.11.1); when I upgrade to 0.12.1 I get the same results you do (better fit at 13291/04/10).

I don't know what changed between these versions to give these differences. The readme for v0.12.0 lists improvements to "accuracy for archaeoastronomical events" which might be relevant.

sidd wrote:Consider me nerdsniped. The far-futurist Randallversian theory is premised on what looks like axial precession, but could well just be a rendering mistake.)
The biggest reason supporting the far-future date is the motion of the stars (such as epsilon Scorpii and alpha Ophiuchi). For the constellations to have changed noticeably requires at least thousands of years of motion, and with the pixel sizes here only gives an estimate good to maybe a thousand years. Once you have an estimated range you can use the periodic motions of the planets and axial precession to get a better estimate.

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Vytron » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:24 pm UTC

- Blindpost -

AK49BWL wrote:**Sigh...

I think it's finally happened, I've lost my will to go on, here :( The outside has not been kind to me and I've completely fallen so far behind I don't think I'll ever catch up again. And I just found this post, wedged at the bottom of NewPage 653.... Now seeing there are 250 pages ahead... Hope you guys are having fun, and thanks for the inclusion :) and here's to 250 more FuturePages!!

I'll probably be back... But not until things settle for me out here.


Aw, I was looking forward to the AK49BWLgularity, but you have all the right in the world to give up if you want! I'd suggest skipping pages and just remain in the skipresent, but, eh, now I'll realize you won't be reading this...

Still, I send my best wishes, and, I may never catch with the present again, but that's no reason to give up! So I'll continue and will be looking forward for another of your participations, if any!
Go! Go! You can do it username5243!
Cheers Marsh'n!

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THANKS KARHELL!! :)

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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Eutychus » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:25 pm UTC

Angua wrote:
Eutychus wrote:
TheMinim wrote:Back on page 199 there is talk of the text directly beneath the name. It is fairly interesting talk.
So does anyone have a quick and simple way of reaching page 199?


http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=101043&start=7920

Last number is [page wanted-1]*40


Great, thanks!
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:30 pm UTC

The left mscha multiplex screen shows an updated animation, now 54 frames:
Spoiler:
Image
The right one shows the output of the molpy detector:
Spoiler:
Image
Not a particularly exciting one, I'm afraid... There are some other very minor molvement in the grass to the left, but I can't confirm that as molpy activity.
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Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby charlie_grumbles » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:40 pm UTC

Eutychus wrote:
TheMinim wrote:Back on page 199 there is talk of the text directly beneath the name. It is fairly interesting talk.
So does anyone have a quick and simple way of reaching page 199?

Just popped in for a second to help a tribe member.

At the top of any page, look for text like this:
Post a reply First unread post • 38759 posts • Page 969 of 969

Click on the last bit: Page xxx of yyy. You will get a form to fill in with a page number.
It will take you directly there.

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