1190: "Time"

This forum is for the individual discussion thread that goes with each new comic.

Moderators: Moderators General, Prelates, Magistrates

User avatar
Flado
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2013 2:38 pm UTC
Location: Lost in Time on NP 1084/1947; Schizoblitzed NP1156-1170
Contact:

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Flado » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:08 am UTC

lgw wrote:Speaking of music, "Time" and "Run" are tracks from Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon. The start of "Time" actually fits the start of Time pretty well IMO:

Spoiler:
Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an off hand way
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way

Tired of lying in the sunshine staying home to watch the rain
You are young and life is long and there is time to kill today
And then one day you find ten years have got behind you
No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun

And you run and you run to catch up with the sun, but its sinking
And racing around to come up behind you again
The sun is the same in a relative way, but you're older
Shorter of breath and one day closer to death

While Cuegan has a more immediate reason to RUN than realizing they need to find something productive to do with their lives, the "hero's journey" is often a metaphor for accepting adult responsibility anyhow, so I think it fits.

Very nice, however "On the Run" is instrumental, whereas "Run Like Hell" has words, most of them "RUN!"

ETA: Ha! Top of the NP! Carry on, no decrees.
Last edited by Flado on Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:01 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
Patriarch of the Western Paradox Church (ret'd)
-
All the stars are dust on my screen -- Marsh'n
The best computer game is a compiler. -- Exodies
I thought I was wrong, but it turned out I was mistaken. -- ucim
You have to grow older. You need not grow up. -- bmonk

User avatar
Eliram
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon Mar 25, 2013 12:58 pm UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Eliram » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:16 am UTC

2941bike.png

2942.png
2942.png (9.34 KiB) Viewed 10249 times


Edit: Papal Decree! Yay! State (If you wish) which modern (or within the foreseeable future) device or gadget would have been most helpful to Cuegan at this point if given to them by the beanies. (They need to learn how to use it FAST, it all looks like magic to them, so no Helicopters and such. They're on their own, too).
Last edited by Eliram on Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:23 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
It's about time.

User avatar
mscha
Posts: 6869
Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:21 pm UTC
Location: NL
Contact:

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:21 am UTC

Code: Select all

M O L P Y
      U

Quick Image...

About land rising as glaciers melt (and as a corollary, the Mediterranean seabed rising and sinking as the water evaporates and flows back): I've been pretty much ninja'd on this, but I do know that Norway is rising noticeably as glaciers melt. Can't find anything in English about this in a quick Google, but I did find an article about Alaska.

lgw wrote:
Spoiler:
I like the theory that the glaciers have returned - after all, present day and Cuegan are all in the Quaternary Ice Age together, and glaciation is the norm, not the exception. There might have even been a glacial plug of Gibraltar, though those tend not to last long enough. We need something to explain why it's not ~60 degrees C (how do you get a degree sign??) where the 40 live! Plus the OC shows GLR was thinking about glaciers recently.
Here's the geologically-recent temperature history. You can see that warm periods come on quickly , 10 k years or less, and end somewhat quickly, 20-30k years (except the current warm anomaly, no telling on that), and then spend 50 k or so years getting gradually cooler.

Thanks, that's useful. Unfortunately, a variation of 8°C would not be enough to make the climate livable, it'd bring typical summer temperatures back from perhaps 52°C to 44°C.
But I'm still thinking a massive cooldown from an apocalypic event. (Nuclear warfare, asteroid crashing, supervolcano, etc.)

My interpretation of events is that they slept through the night in the (tunnel? structure?) when the frame was all black. Their plan was certainly to run to the tower, then sleep; and they seem to be leaving the tower already.
(Cueball's dream is probably the GLR's way to tell us this. Yes, it could refer to the earlier dream, but the timing would be odd.

Image
click for full-size version

Here's a combined view of the structure Cuegan has just passed. (We don't know how big the gaps between frames really are.)
We skipped quite a big area (marked in red), much more than we thought at the time, on the way over. Probably on purpose by the GLR so that we couldn't yet guess what was going on.
I agree, seems like some kind of water work. A pier, levee or dike, maybe. So that means that this is the original sea level (or at least was at some point in time between nowOutside and nowInside). Doesn't mean the castle is safe, though – we'll have to <insert old version of title text>.
If you look at a (current) map, you see that there are other islands nearby, with (currently) a pier, and a dike between them. Could perhaps be one of those?
Last edited by mscha on Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:42 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
List¹ of all Frames of Time and after Time.
New here? Questions? Check the wiki.
Don't worry, feed molpies⁴.
Image
Holy Croce
Default footnotes; standard OTT-np2166m 1.2:
Spoiler:
Image
Image

User avatar
xpatiate
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:02 am UTC
Contact:

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby xpatiate » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:29 am UTC

ggh wrote:Seems like it's more of a hassle for the folks cleaning up the aisles at New World than anything else, but I find it scary. Lotsa little aftershocks... I do not like them.


Don't blame you. There were always little quakes when I was growing up, everyone was pretty blasé about them. Very different now after Christchurch.

ggh wrote:Hmm - you could be right. Having just a 2D slice could be very misleading right now.
Spoiler:
Image


That is an interesting theory! And it would make sense that we weren't given the complete view of the structure until now (as mscha said).

Tatiana wrote:Question: what was it that creeped Cuegan out about Hypatia? It seems she was quite friendly, open, and helpful to me. I think I would have stayed to brainstorm with her on technology the beanies might have that could help them save their people.


I find that bit of dialogue kind of bizarre actually. "Starting to get a little creeped out" does not seem the right phrase to capture the feeling when you have just learnt that your home is about to be flooded and there's nothing you can do to save anybody. It seemed like they took off running out of impulsive desperate heroism, but actually they just wanted to leave because they were feeling a bit weird and uncomfortable? Really?

User avatar
CasCat
Posts: 277
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 1:42 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby CasCat » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:38 am UTC

jjjdavidson wrote:
CasCat wrote:
jjjdavidson wrote:Is any OTTer a Worldcon member?

I am, but only a supporting member. I wanted to be able to vote for the Hugos, but I can't afford to go to San Antonio.

So as a supporting member you can enter a Hugo nomination, but you wouldn't be able to vote without attending the 'Con?


<blindpost during ketchup> As a supporting member, I get to nominate candidates for the Hugo, when the nominations are closed I receive the Hugo Packet (electronic copies of the candidates, where the publishers agree to send them), and I can vote for the Hugos. I can also nominate for next year's candidates (but I'm not sure I can vote). What I cannot do is actually attend the convention. (In fact, voting closes in less than two weeks; I've got to finish reading candidates so I can vote....)

I know they used to vote for Hugos at the actual Worldcon, but now it's done electronically.
BlitzGirl the Fast the First

User avatar
mindonner
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun May 26, 2013 7:41 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mindonner » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:41 am UTC

The only interpretation I can think of that fits is that they were creeped out by Rosetta's fatalism, sitting there calmly while telling them that their entire tribe is already dead. That's not inconsistent with the sudden heroic dash.

User avatar
HES
Posts: 4857
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 7:13 pm UTC
Location: England

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby HES » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:41 am UTC

AnotherKevin wrote:My personal Naismith Rule is that I can do a little over 3 mph sustained on paved roads. Off road, I figure 30 minutes to the mile, 40-45 minutes per thousand feet of elevation change. OK, I'm a little slow.

That's actually pretty fast for a hedgemolpy

DJ3000 wrote:Trying to post a pix but got blocked as spam - guess I have to post a few more times - which ironically could be called spam :D

That's always amused me about forums. Oh, and Hi!

b2bomberkrh wrote:Hmmm, when I did "copy image url" I didn't get this url, I got time.png. I was worried that if I put that image in, it would change each time the comic frame updated. Do I have to do something different to get the right url, now that the auto updating is working differently?

ETA: If I open the picture in a new tab, I get the complicated url, but I get the "time.png" one when I copy image url from the main comic tab, and it worked fine when I pasted it in here trying to put up the new image. MIght be something to be careful of in the future.

Yes, you have to go deeperTHAT'S WHAT SHE SAID to get the actual hash (did you notice the javascript?). Plenty of people have made that mistake, myself included, and we've been trying to get them all fixed so that we don't leave spoilers

b2bomberkrh wrote:My rough calculation indicates the Mediterranean is approximately the shape of a normal size bathtub that is 1 cm deep.

And then surface tension starts chirping with your comparisons

spamjam wrote:DOESANONGINANEMPTYOTTMAKEASOUND?

Woah. That's the closest pair of ONGs in a long while
He/Him/His Image

SinusPi
Posts: 128
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:16 pm UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby SinusPi » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:45 am UTC

Wait wait. Creeped out? Could they have simply not believed a word of what Hypatia said...? And they ran out simply to get the hell away from these mad people..?

User avatar
mscha
Posts: 6869
Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:21 pm UTC
Location: NL
Contact:

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:51 am UTC

As for why Cuegan didn't stop the tower: I don't think they'd be able to see anything. Remember, this is the second tower, well onto the continental shelf, and they'll need to look over the edge of it to see what's going on near home.
It'll get interesting when they reach the first tower, though, right on the edge of the continental shelf. (8-ish ‘scenes’, excluding the cutaway to the floating bucket – although we've learned that doesn't necessarily tell us much.)
Probably 12-ish newpix from now, things will get interesting again. (As I'm about to go coma, of course.)
List¹ of all Frames of Time and after Time.
New here? Questions? Check the wiki.
Don't worry, feed molpies⁴.
Image
Holy Croce
Default footnotes; standard OTT-np2166m 1.2:
Spoiler:
Image
Image

User avatar
mscha
Posts: 6869
Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:21 pm UTC
Location: NL
Contact:

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mscha » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:00 pm UTC

RunnONG again...
Image

ETA: We're now at the scene where they first met the Beanies. (Slightly shifted again.)
List¹ of all Frames of Time and after Time.
New here? Questions? Check the wiki.
Don't worry, feed molpies⁴.
Image
Holy Croce
Default footnotes; standard OTT-np2166m 1.2:
Spoiler:
Image
Image

User avatar
CasCat
Posts: 277
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 1:42 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby CasCat » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:05 pm UTC

Eutychus wrote:
shurikt wrote:Ha ha! Which one of you edited that Wikipedia article to include us?


(Guiltily raises hand)

Isn't that what one's supposed to do on Wikipedia?

Another thought. Somebody mentioned nominating the OTC for a Hugo award. I would think Cory Doctorow would be up for doing so, and I've always found him amazingly good at answering e-mail. Perhaps a better-established Timewaiter might like to approach him?


Any member of a Worldcon can make nominations for Hugos. One doesn't have to be famous or prominent. Nominations are opened in about January or February, closed in about May or June, and voting takes place in about July. However, it takes a critical mass of such nominations to get onto the ballot (the top five nominated works get on the ballot), so having someone famous or prominent suggest the nomination couldn't hurt. And remember, it'd almost certainly be up against Girl Genius and/or Schlock Mercenary, which both have massive fanbases....

You'd probably want to wait to nominate it for the year in which the story actually finishes; people are more likely to vote for a finished story than a story-in-progress. Which may make for a long wait (for it)...
BlitzGirl the Fast the First

User avatar
Latent22
Posts: 622
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:57 pm UTC
Location: NZ

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Latent22 » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:10 pm UTC

CasCat wrote:
Eutychus wrote:
shurikt wrote:Ha ha! Which one of you edited that Wikipedia article to include us?


(Guiltily raises hand)

Isn't that what one's supposed to do on Wikipedia?

Another thought. Somebody mentioned nominating the OTC for a Hugo award. I would think Cory Doctorow would be up for doing so, and I've always found him amazingly good at answering e-mail. Perhaps a better-established Timewaiter might like to approach him?


Any member of a Worldcon can make nominations for Hugos. One doesn't have to be famous or prominent. Nominations are opened in about January or February, closed in about May or June, and voting takes place in about July. However, it takes a critical mass of such nominations to get onto the ballot (the top five nominated works get on the ballot), so having someone famous or prominent suggest the nomination couldn't hurt. And remember, it'd almost certainly be up against Girl Genius and/or Schlock Mercenary, which both have massive fanbases....

You'd probably want to wait to nominate it for the year in which the story actually finishes; people are more likely to vote for a finished story than a story-in-progress. Which may make for a long wait (for it)...

What about A story that doesn't end for 11,000 years? Do we have to wait till then to nominate it?

Nilpferdschaf
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 7:03 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Nilpferdschaf » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:18 pm UTC

Tatiana wrote:You'd think they'd at least run to the tower and look back the way they came from to see if the water had risen visibly since they came through last time, and to see if any beanies were following them or just visible going about their business. I'm still thinking there must be some kind of long distance communication system, too. When the eyes first appeared on the window of the castle, I thought it was somehow connected with that. Of course if that were the case, the beanies might have signaled back to home base before they packed up the scope and headed back on foot, and we saw no sign of that.

Question: what was it that creeped Cuegan out about Hypatia? It seems she was quite friendly, open, and helpful to me. I think I would have stayed to brainstorm with her on technology the beanies might have that could help them save their people.


I think they have:
Image

The light flashes must have been some kind of morse code. Maybe Megan signalled the beanies accidentally while she was playing around with it before.

Image

This might be their tower communications network. I tried mapping it to the surrounding mountain ranges, but it doesn't really fit, no matter how you turn or resize it. The gap in the lower right might be were cuegan's sea is.

User avatar
CasCat
Posts: 277
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 1:42 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby CasCat » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:22 pm UTC

Re: Hugo nomination

Spoiler:
Latent22 wrote:
CasCat wrote:
Eutychus wrote:
shurikt wrote:Ha ha! Which one of you edited that Wikipedia article to include us?


(Guiltily raises hand)

Isn't that what one's supposed to do on Wikipedia?

Another thought. Somebody mentioned nominating the OTC for a Hugo award. I would think Cory Doctorow would be up for doing so, and I've always found him amazingly good at answering e-mail. Perhaps a better-established Timewaiter might like to approach him?


Any member of a Worldcon can make nominations for Hugos. One doesn't have to be famous or prominent. Nominations are opened in about January or February, closed in about May or June, and voting takes place in about July. However, it takes a critical mass of such nominations to get onto the ballot (the top five nominated works get on the ballot), so having someone famous or prominent suggest the nomination couldn't hurt. And remember, it'd almost certainly be up against Girl Genius and/or Schlock Mercenary, which both have massive fanbases....

You'd probably want to wait to nominate it for the year in which the story actually finishes; people are more likely to vote for a finished story than a story-in-progress. Which may make for a long wait (for it)...

What about A story that doesn't end for 11,000 years? Do we have to wait till then to nominate it?


Ok, from the official Hugo Award site, http://www.thehugoawards.org:
TheHugoAwards.org wrote:Serialized Works

Works such as TV series, comics and sometimes even whole novels are sometimes published in multiple parts making up a complete story arc. The individual elements of such a story arc are always eligible for their year of publication. However, voters may want to nominate a complete story arc. In such cases it is the publication date of the final installment of the series that counts for eligibility purposes.

If an individual installment of a story arc achieves a nomination on its own then the complete story arc will probably be ruled ineligible if nominated. This is because the voters have clearly indicated that the installment stands on its own as a complete work and is not part of a longer work. (The same would apply if, for example, book 1 of a trilogy were to be nominated on its own.)


So, yes, as with Digger (last year's winner, took Ursula Vernon something like five years to finish, and WELL worth reading) it's probably best to nominate on the year it finishes. Surely the Hugos will still be around in twenty years, right? Right...?
BlitzGirl the Fast the First

User avatar
CasCat
Posts: 277
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 1:42 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby CasCat » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:31 pm UTC

Accidental double-post; sorry. I expected the OTT to be busier while I ketched-up. :oops:

Tatiana wrote:You'd think they'd at least run to the tower and look back the way they came from to see if the water had risen visibly since they came through last time, and to see if any beanies were following them or just visible going about their business. I'm still thinking there must be some kind of long distance communication system, too. When the eyes first appeared on the window of the castle, I thought it was somehow connected with that. Of course if that were the case, the beanies might have signaled back to home base before they packed up the scope and headed back on foot, and we saw no sign of that.

Question: what was it that creeped Cuegan out about Hypatia? It seems she was quite friendly, open, and helpful to me. I think I would have stayed to brainstorm with her on technology the beanies might have that could help them save their people.


Her fatalism, I think. "Too bad, so sorry, everyone you know is about to be dead and I'm not going to put anyone in danger trying to warn them. Have a nice day." And the bit about saying their goodbyes from here implies that Cueball and Megan might also be prevented, for their own good, from trying to go back and save them. Remember, the Beanies have had some time to come to grips with the scale of the catastrophe; Cuegan has not.

They're in a building, surrounded by a community of people who obey the leader, and the leader doesn't seem able or willing to help and doesn't seem sympathetic to them wanting to go back to help, either. Getting out of the building and out of the control of the Beanies may be an overreaction, but if they're wrong, they're just rude (which is excusable because they're overwrought), and if they're right, they avoid imprisonment (for their own good) and the certain (rather than probable) death of their community.

I don't think the Beanies are sinister, and I don't think the leader is evil. But I could easily see our heroes being stopped in order to save their lives, using the cold (and probably accurate) calculus that the others will die anyway. Cueball and Megan, because they KNOW the others, aren't willing to accept that.

<edit to add> And I was ninja'd by mindonner....
BlitzGirl the Fast the First

User avatar
karhell
Posts: 684
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:56 pm UTC
Location: Breizh

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby karhell » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:36 pm UTC

Telegraph to the OTTers :

Moving to new flat,
Very little time to Blitz.
Will signpost when done.

karhell - logging out at the top of NP 711
AluisioASG wrote:191 years ago, the great D. Pedro I drew his sword and said: "Indent thy code or die!"
lmjb1964 wrote:We're weird but it's okay.
ColletArrow, katakissa, iskinner, thunk, GnomeAnne, Quantized, and any other Blitzers, have fun on your journey!

User avatar
edo
Posts: 420
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:05 pm UTC
Location: ~TrApPeD iN mY PhOnE~

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby edo » Sun Jul 21, 2013 12:54 pm UTC

mk_chem wrote:ninjONG?

or simply my first ONG?

Image

(wanted to do an ONG before TIME ends, though i hope it wont very soon!)

EDIT: yay, no need to ninja anyone, my posts are not regarded as spam anymore :D


You posted an image with only 4 posts! That's supposed to be impossible.

The wheel in the tower would be super useful, if there were a zipline set up. (Zipline is a huge blast from the past, by the way! If only the were dragging a rope along the way)

Most useful technology? HAM radio. (Helicopters would be nice, but they need fuel, pilots, etc)
Co-proprietor of a Mome and Pope Shope

odaiwai
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 13, 2013 3:19 pm UTC
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby odaiwai » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:03 pm UTC

keep on runnONG...
Image

ETA: most useful modern gadget at this stage: A fully fuelled and trained air sea rescue helicopter complete with the crew. You don't have to know how to use it if it comes with a crew... Of course, the crew might be a little put out at finding themselves in the 13,000's, but those guys are professionals. They'll freak out later, once the rescue is done.

Ashaman
Posts: 28
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 5:29 pm UTC
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Ashaman » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:22 pm UTC

mscha wrote:
lgw wrote:
Spoiler:
I like the theory that the glaciers have returned - after all, present day and Cuegan are all in the Quaternary Ice Age together, and glaciation is the norm, not the exception. There might have even been a glacial plug of Gibraltar, though those tend not to last long enough. We need something to explain why it's not ~60 degrees C (how do you get a degree sign??) where the 40 live! Plus the OC shows GLR was thinking about glaciers recently.
Here's the geologically-recent temperature history. You can see that warm periods come on quickly , 10 k years or less, and end somewhat quickly, 20-30k years (except the current warm anomaly, no telling on that), and then spend 50 k or so years getting gradually cooler.

Thanks, that's useful. Unfortunately, a variation of 8°C would not be enough to make the climate livable, it'd bring typical summer temperatures back from perhaps 52°C to 44°C.
But I'm still thinking a massive cooldown from an apocalypic event. (Nuclear warfare, asteroid crashing, supervolcano, etc.)


We've got a massive warm-up coming this century, and there are already serious thoughts about Geo-engineering our way out of it. Some of the ideas include seeding the upper atmosphere with pollution (sulpher compounds) to block some of the incoming sunlight, or orbital mirrors to block the sunlight before it even reaches the planet. Suppose one of those orbiting systems got built around 2100 or so, but then nobody was around to shut it off around 2200 or so when it was no longer needed? That might give us an ice age by 2300 or 2400, which could give us an ice dam on the Gibralter by 2500. (Wow, it's amazing to be able to speculate multiple centuries ahead, and still have room before the story comes along) We then have a few centuries of evaporation (very slow, since it's cold out, and there's surface ice on the water) to lower the level of the Med. Then the orbital mirrors get knocked away by the shockwave of a nearby supernova (Antares), allowing things to start warming up again, which takes a few more centuries. It all comes together nicely, as long as you speculate all over the place.

Except that I got the impression from Hairdo that the dam was made of rock, not melting ice, so this whole line of speculation doesn't really work that well. And if we're just playing with rock, I don't think we have enough time for current geological processes (other than an unexpected volcano) to close the straits.

User avatar
charlie_grumbles
Posts: 1004
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:07 pm UTC
Location: Self Imposed Exile

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby charlie_grumbles » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:47 pm UTC

Ashaman wrote:Except that I got the impression from Hairdo that the dam was made of rock, not melting ice, so this whole line of speculation doesn't really work that well. And if we're just playing with rock, I don't think we have enough time for current geological processes (other than an unexpected volcano) to close the straits.

The Azores-Gibraltar fault runs straight through the strait of Gibraltar.(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores-Gib ... form_Fault) so pretty much anything can happen here - and quickly. Plate movement isn't smooth or regular at the boundaries. But there is no volcanic activity nearby. Sicily and southern Italy, yes, but not near Gibraltar. Mt Etna is also on this boundary, of course, but in a different part.

--

With respect to the earlier question: Will removal of overlaying ice or water cause the ground to rise? This has been answered correctly by others, but I note that Uppsala Sweden was very close to the sea in Viking times. (I hesitate to say seashore, but close.) It is now 15m above sea level and 60km or more from the Baltic. Check it now on google maps.
Lurking. Watching. Thinking. Writing. Waiting.
-- Charlie Grumbles

User avatar
mikrit
Posts: 400
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2012 8:13 pm UTC
Location: Sweden

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mikrit » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:58 pm UTC

I believe the glacial rebound (rising ground) is now about 0.9 mm/year near Umeå in north Sweden.

ETA: Oops. I meant cm. It's 0.9 cm/year.
Last edited by mikrit on Sun Jul 21, 2013 5:33 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
Hatted and wimpled by ergman.
Dubbed "First and Eldest of Ottificators" by svenman.
Febrion wrote: "etc" is latin for "this would look better with more examples, but I can't think of any".

User avatar
Rule110
Posts: 385
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:14 pm UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Rule110 » Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:58 pm UTC

CasCat wrote:Accidental double-post; sorry. I expected the OTT to be busier while I ketched-up. :oops:

Tatiana wrote:Question: what was it that creeped Cuegan out about Hypatia? It seems she was quite friendly, open, and helpful to me. I think I would have stayed to brainstorm with her on technology the beanies might have that could help them save their people.


Her fatalism, I think. "Too bad, so sorry, everyone you know is about to be dead and I'm not going to put anyone in danger trying to warn them. Have a nice day." And the bit about saying their goodbyes from here implies that Cueball and Megan might also be prevented, for their own good, from trying to go back and save them. Remember, the Beanies have had some time to come to grips with the scale of the catastrophe; Cuegan has not.

They're in a building, surrounded by a community of people who obey the leader, and the leader doesn't seem able or willing to help and doesn't seem sympathetic to them wanting to go back to help, either. Getting out of the building and out of the control of the Beanies may be an overreaction, but if they're wrong, they're just rude (which is excusable because they're overwrought), and if they're right, they avoid imprisonment (for their own good) and the certain (rather than probable) death of their community.

I don't think the Beanies are sinister, and I don't think the leader is evil. But I could easily see our heroes being stopped in order to save their lives, using the cold (and probably accurate) calculus that the others will die anyway. Cueball and Megan, because they KNOW the others, aren't willing to accept that.

<edit to add> And I was ninja'd by mindonner....


I think it's very likely that it was her seeming fatalism that creeped them out. I also still think it's possible that something about her voice was as strange and disconcerting to listen to as it was to decipher on the page.

Overall, though, I don't see Hypatia's attitude as just cold calculation either, even though I probably contributed to that perception with my lyrics for "Go Down, Megan," in which I portrayed the "scientists" as incapable of understanding why Cuegan would choose literally to go into the abyss. I made use of a stereotype that the Beanies themselves have done little to deserve having applied to them. (It's a very pervasive and socially accepted stereotype about rationalists, sometimes called the "Spock Fallacy," implicitly claiming that resisting being swayed by emotion when making decisions indicates lack of emotional feeling or empathy.)

From Hypatia's point of view, here come two strangers out of nowhere, from far away, who came to their swarm of scientists/teachers/learners. Not to trade salt for molphy hides or to find better cropland or to tell them about their god. They came to investigate a natural phenomenon that puzzled them. However ignorant they are of the facts, there is immediate kinship there in their drive, and all Hypatia is doing is immediately treating them as if they were of her own tribe. Her ethical imperative is to protect them from the danger, just as she would her own beanie-wearing students/subjects.

A truly cold utilitarian calculation would have a different result. "Sacrificing two for a one in ten chance of saving forty... yeah, sounds like a win! Oh wait, it's only a one in twenty chance? Well, that still breaks even." (I find it implausible that they could know the timing of the event with such precision that they could confidently say the odds are less than one in twenty. Unless they're actually scientists/teachers/learners/time travelers.)

Megan and Cueball, of course, draw the lines differently. Whatever kinship feeling they might have had for "wow, people who are curious about how everything works, just like we are" is overshadowed by their actual kinship with their actual kin. Their ethical imperative is RUN.
If you're lost you can look--and you will find me
Time after Time...

Ashaman
Posts: 28
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 5:29 pm UTC
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Ashaman » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:00 pm UTC

charlie_grumbles wrote:
Ashaman wrote:Except that I got the impression from Hairdo that the dam was made of rock, not melting ice, so this whole line of speculation doesn't really work that well. And if we're just playing with rock, I don't think we have enough time for current geological processes (other than an unexpected volcano) to close the straits.

The Azores-Gibraltar fault runs straight through the strait of Gibraltar.(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores-Gib ... form_Fault) so pretty much anything can happen here - and quickly. Plate movement isn't smooth or regular at the boundaries. But there is no volcanic activity nearby. Sicily and southern Italy, yes, but not near Gibraltar. Mt Etna is also on this boundary, of course, but in a different part.


Yea, but that fault line runs east-west. So if things slip along the fault, which is what happens with transform faults, that just offsets one side of the strait from the other. That's going to open up the straits, not close them. To close them, I think we need continental drift to push African plate further up into Eurasian plate, and that's an awfully long movement at drift speeds. That movement is currently in progress, but we won't see a big change within 10k years.

User avatar
Ximenez
Posts: 249
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:06 pm UTC
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Ximenez » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:01 pm UTC

WrONG?
Image

User avatar
mindonner
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun May 26, 2013 7:41 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mindonner » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:02 pm UTC

ConfessONG
Spoiler:
Image

(my first ONG?)


eta: nope, ninja'd!

Is she feeling guilty about stealing the map? I can't think what else it would have been, unless she grabbed another thing at the same time.
Last edited by mindonner on Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:03 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
charlie_grumbles
Posts: 1004
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:07 pm UTC
Location: Self Imposed Exile

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby charlie_grumbles » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:02 pm UTC

Ximenez wrote:WrONG?
Spoiler:
Image

Stole the map!
Lurking. Watching. Thinking. Writing. Waiting.
-- Charlie Grumbles

User avatar
Ximenez
Posts: 249
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:06 pm UTC
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Ximenez » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:06 pm UTC

charlie_grumbles wrote:
Ximenez wrote:WrONG?
Spoiler:
Image

Stole the map!

If it was as important as Megan seems to be thinking, Rosetta would have sent some Beanies to chase them and recover it. It would have been an easy task: Cuegan stopped for the night!

(ETA: Sometimes I forget / find it hard to believe that Megan, Rosetta, Beanies, Cuegan, all are names we gave them!)

User avatar
Tatiana
Posts: 187
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 3:19 pm UTC
Location: Birmingham, AL
Contact:

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Tatiana » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:20 pm UTC

The flashes of light! Of course that is some kind of communication system! They might have been able to send a message to some beanies at a tower not far from the Forty, and warn them that way. Except it's likely that all the beanies have been recalled from the network of towers for their safety. I still think Hypatia when saying Cuegan must say their goodbyes from the castle was speaking literally. I think the Beanies have a way to communicate with the Forty. So maybe they could warn them to run quickly to higher ground. I don't know. Hypatia didn't seem to think there was time for them to escape the flood in any case.
οττξЃs gotta OTT, so come to the facebook OTT group!

User avatar
nerdsniped
Posts: 159
Joined: Sun May 19, 2013 6:06 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby nerdsniped » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:23 pm UTC

Eliram wrote:Edit: Papal Decree! Yay! State (If you wish) which modern (or within the foreseeable future) device or gadget would have been most helpful to Cuegan at this point if given to them by the beanies. (They need to learn how to use it FAST, it all looks like magic to them, so no Helicopters and such. They're on their own, too).

So: they need to travel a long distance, downhill, over rough terrain, in a big hurry? And later it might be handy to have something that can float? I think there's only one answer.


ucim wrote:I'll PM my OTVO "audition" shortly... been a bit ill and busy at the same time (not a great combo).

Jose

I haven't seen anyone respond to this yet, so I'll just say: ugh, I've been there and it's not fun. Hope you feel better + get a chance to rest. I always enjoy your posts (hmm, now it sounds like that's the only reason I want you to feel better... the joys of forum communication.)
New to the Time thread? Click here!

"we are dangerously close to answers. Let's hope they lead to more questions..." -- HES

"Expect friskiness." -- keithl

User avatar
jjjdavidson
Posts: 652
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:40 pm UTC
Location: Outside: The Ozarks, North America ─ OTTside: Lost in the 1400s

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby jjjdavidson » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:23 pm UTC

b2bomberkrh wrote:
Spoiler:
jjjdavidson wrote:
robbak wrote:
jjjdavidson wrote:
robbak wrote:Various sources show a flow rate through the strait at 300km/hr. While that is huge, it makes sense for a flow a few hundred meters high with an ocean behind it and nothing in front of it.

But this, admittedly enormous, momentum runs into a humongous body of water. It would cause large currents in the Med, but not a kilometer high sloshing. If there are tsunamis, then they would be caused by undersea landslides and earthquakes, which would be common with such a rapid flooding.

Remember, we're starting with a mostly-empty Med basin. I think what keithl is saying is that, with a catastrophic refill that happens in weeks, practically the entire Med would be the current ─ that you'd have a mass of water 2000 miles long all moving eastward, to eventually wash over Lebanon and Syria.
Here is a better way putting my point across: Consider any body of water - bucket, bathtub, swimming pool - that fills in any way over a space of many days. Is there any major sloshing due to the inflow rate?

Things like this do roughly scale. On the local scale - at Gibraltar, below Sicily - the scale of this would be impressive. But on the scale of the entire sea, it would be fairly steady. The huge scale makes huge amounts of energy, but also huge amounts of mass to absorb that energy.

Excellent image: That gives me a way to ask the question. In a filling bathtub, the water stays effectively level (ignoring ripples). In a river, there's a continuous slope to the water (my mother lives above a dam on the Arkansas river, and the water level at her house actually drops when the flow rate increases, because the slope of the reservoir increases).

I wanted to point out what the scaling of the problem implies here. I'm not certain how well things really will scale in this case, but even assuming they do, consider this. A bathtub is about 2 meters long. If the Mediterranean is roughly 1000 km long, then the scaling factor is 500,000. This means that a 2 mm (or about a tenth of an inch) change in the bathtub level corresponds to a 1 km change in the level of the Mediterranean. So, all the claims of how a bathtub is "mostly smooth", or fills with "little sloshing" and so on, when scaled up, are still massive waves going back and forth across the Mediterranean.

ETA: Also, note that the Mediterranean is an EXTREMELY shallow bathtub, another reason why comparisons aren't necessarily accurate. Most people don't realize how flat the surface of the Earth is on the scale of the Earth itself, and how much bigger geographic features such as seas are in their surface area than they are in depth. My rough calculation indicates the Mediterranean is approximately the shape of a normal size bathtub that is 1 cm deep.

These are very good points, and the scale is even more exaggerated than your rough figures. Actually, my fairly standard bathtub has a floor that's only about 1.2m long, and my maps all indicate the Med is perhaps 3300km, giving a bathtub-to-Med scaling factor of 2.75 million to 1, and an average "bathtub depth" of only about half a millimeter.

hunjoh wrote:
Spoiler:
jjjdavidson wrote:@keithl, you were the one who first brought up seismic activity triggered by the weight of inflowing water, so I have another question: ③ How much might the Med basin and the surrounding former coastline have risen as petatons of sea water evaporated? Enough to be significant?

I think so.

If we look at post-glacial rebound we can see the effect of removing the weight of large volumes of water. This article (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/ndnotes/Rebound/Glacial%20Rebound.htm) states "The earth's crust behaves as an elastic structure and glaciologists know that, once the ice reaches a certain thickness, it depresses the crust about a foot for every three feet of ice." (Emphasis mine) Given that sea water is a little more dense than ice, this would seem to be a good lower bound.
keithl wrote:Safety of various shoreline places:
The volume of the Mediterranean is 3,750,000 km3, the average depth is 1,500m...
So an average of 500 meters of rebound once the water is removed. More significantly, 500 meters of depression in a matter of months as the water flows back in, in an area that others have noted is crossed by faults. (Would this cause the depth of the Straight of Gibraltar to increase as the water fills the adjacent Mediterranean basin? Independent of new erosion?)
Spoiler:
Note: Anticipating the question of how fast the land could rise or fall, here is a quote from Wikipedia on the subject. "Studies have shown that the uplift has taken place in two distinct stages. The initial uplift following deglaciation was near-instantaneous due to the elastic response of the crust as the ice load was removed. After this elastic phase, uplift proceeded by slow viscous flow so the rate of uplift decreased exponentially after that. "

:shock: Wow. No wonder keithl was predicting earthquakes. So now I wonder: Has Randall Have the Beanies taken rebound into account in their shoreline forecasts? Regarding the Strait specifically: I'd think the combined weight of the Atlantic and the pillars of Hercules would have the Strait already fairly well depressed; I'd expect instead of a substantial drop in the Strait to have shear quakes in Spain and Morocco (but I'm no geologist, so this is practically all WAG).

xpatiate wrote:I did! 10km this morning, with a few others:
Spoiler:
Image

Is that you in the twelfth row back, fifth from the right? :) I wish I had known this for the "unusual units of measure" page a while back, but my big red dictionary says that myriameter is a legitimate term for 10,000m. So you can tell people you just did a "Myriameter Run."

Eliram wrote:Papal Decree! Yay! State (If you wish) which modern (or within the foreseeable future) device or gadget would have been most helpful to Cuegan at this point if given to them by the beanies. (They need to learn how to use it FAST, it all looks like magic to them, so no Helicopters and such. They're on their own, too).

Portal to Mars, duh! Although here I'm afraid Randall utterly neglected conservation of energy. In traveling from Earth orbit to Mars orbit, the water gains an enormous amount of potential energy in the Sun's gravity well, so it should arrive on Mars as chunks of supercooled ice. (So much for the poor Curiosity rover!) This would be mitigated somewhat by Mars' lower gravity and lower orbital velocity, but probably not all that much. [Probably ninja'd by someone in the What If? fora, but I'm too lazy to check there, much less actually do any of the energy calculations.]
Don't worry. Feed squirpys.
Don't wait for me.
My OTC/OTT graphsMay include spoilers!
Helpful links: Time Wiki FAQrot-13 / Morse decoders
He won! He won! He won!
Knight Temporal. :) Ex-Loopist. :(

User avatar
CasCat
Posts: 277
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 1:42 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby CasCat » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:25 pm UTC

Tatiana wrote:The flashes of light! Of course that is some kind of communication system! They might have been able to send a message to some beanies at a tower not far from the Forty, and warn them that way. Except it's likely that all the beanies have been recalled from the network of towers for their safety. I still think Hypatia when saying Cuegan must say their goodbyes from the castle was speaking literally. I think the Beanies have a way to communicate with the Forty. So maybe they could warn them to run quickly to higher ground. I don't know. Hypatia didn't seem to think there was time for them to escape the flood in any case.


Megan and Cueball didn't know that the flashes of light they saw were communication attempts. (In fact, they still don't.) Why would the rest of The Forty? "Ok, look. Some flashes of light on the horizon. Interesting. Well, better finish weaving this basket...."

In order for communication to work, there has to be someone who knows how to receive it and interpret it.
BlitzGirl the Fast the First

User avatar
mindonner
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun May 26, 2013 7:41 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby mindonner » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:33 pm UTC

As for Worldcon and the possibility of a Hugo nomination, I'm very likely to be going next year when it's in London (so should have nominating privileges for the 2014 awards). This year's awards are already shortlisted and being voted on, so it's far too late for a 2013 nom - and of course, Time has still not come to an end. I may be able to rally some support from Westeros, too, at least if it's not up against anything GRRM-ish anyway.

User avatar
Tatiana
Posts: 187
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 3:19 pm UTC
Location: Birmingham, AL
Contact:

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby Tatiana » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:34 pm UTC

CasCat wrote:
Tatiana wrote:The flashes of light! Of course that is some kind of communication system! They might have been able to send a message to some beanies at a tower not far from the Forty, and warn them that way. Except it's likely that all the beanies have been recalled from the network of towers for their safety. I still think Hypatia when saying Cuegan must say their goodbyes from the castle was speaking literally. I think the Beanies have a way to communicate with the Forty. So maybe they could warn them to run quickly to higher ground. I don't know. Hypatia didn't seem to think there was time for them to escape the flood in any case.


Megan and Cueball didn't know that the flashes of light they saw were communication attempts. (In fact, they still don't.) Why would the rest of The Forty? "Ok, look. Some flashes of light on the horizon. Interesting. Well, better finish weaving this basket...."

In order for communication to work, there has to be someone who knows how to receive it and interpret it.


Yes, that's why my first thought was communication to beanies at nearby (to the Forty) towers... who would likely have been recalled by now. Yet if my hypothesis is true that Hypatia knows of some way Cuegan could say their goodbyes from the castle, then there must be some way to communicate long distance. We don't know what technology they have, after all. The light flashes do hint at a communication network, though, which is promising.
οττξЃs gotta OTT, so come to the facebook OTT group!

User avatar
ucim
Posts: 6243
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2012 3:23 pm UTC
Location: The One True Thread

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby ucim » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:37 pm UTC

nerdsniped wrote:
ucim wrote:I'll PM my OTVO "audition" shortly... been a bit ill and busy at the same time (not a great combo).
I haven't seen anyone respond to this yet, so I'll just say: ugh, I've been there and it's not fun. Hope you feel better + get a chance to rest.
Thanks. At least I don't need a steam bottle. Ugh!

jjjdavidson wrote: I'm afraid Randall utterly neglected conservation of energy. In traveling from Earth orbit to Mars orbit, the water gains an enormous amount of potential energy in the Sun's gravity well, so it should arrive on Mars as chunks of supercooled ice.
The energy the water gains need not be at the expense of the water's existing thermal energy. If we can imagine portals between the planets, which magically keep their positions aligned despite complex orbital dynamics, those portals can also align the gravitational and kinetic energy differences.

As for good tools for the Cuegan to have - walkie talkies... though ones that have a two hundred mile range in rough terrain are a bit more advanced than what I am primed to imagine the Beanies have.

Mountain bikes would be good. Much beyond that, you really need a team, which is why I think the Cuegan should have spent some time pleading their case with Rosetta.

Jose
Order of the Sillies, Honoris Causam - bestowed by charlie_grumbles on NP 859 * OTTscar winner: Wordsmith - bestowed by yappobiscuts and the OTT on NP 1832 * Ecclesiastical Calendar of the Order of the Holy Contradiction * Please help addams if you can. She needs all of us.

User avatar
jjjdavidson
Posts: 652
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:40 pm UTC
Location: Outside: The Ozarks, North America ─ OTTside: Lost in the 1400s

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby jjjdavidson » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:41 pm UTC

Ximenez wrote:WrONG?
Spoiler:
Image

Uh-oh. I don't think it's the map she's worried about; Rosetta had plenty of time to ask for it back while they were gathering their bags. I think maybe there's something in the past.

Could she, when first collecting their bags, have taken something that might now prove critical for the Forty's survival, such as their only compass or their only steam bottle? Or ─ remember that she and Cueball were passing back and forth from their castle in the same direction that la Petite came from. Did she give a joking command to la Petite ─ "Whatever happens, don't let the sea take our castle!" ─ so that now she's worried that the child will have been trapped on the beach because of her?

mindonner wrote:As for Worldcon and the possibility of a Hugo nomination, I'm very likely to be going next year when it's in London (so should have nominating privileges for the 2014 awards). This year's awards are already shortlisted and being voted on, so it's far too late for a 2013 nom - and of course, Time has still not come to an end. I may be able to rally some support from Westeros, too, at least if it's not up against anything GRRM-ish anyway.

Of course, Girl Genius has won 3 Hugos already, and is nowhere near its end. We could nominate Time Parts I & II: Wait For It / Run for 2014, Time Part XXXIV: Quantum Mechanics for 2023, and so on.

nerdsniped wrote:So: they need to travel a long distance, downhill, over rough terrain, in a big hurry? And later it might be handy to have something that can float? I think there's only one answer.

I've gotten to play in one of those. Except for the utter airlessness within, they are so chirping much fun it's ridiculous. And they are extraordinarily good exercise, too.
Don't worry. Feed squirpys.
Don't wait for me.
My OTC/OTT graphsMay include spoilers!
Helpful links: Time Wiki FAQrot-13 / Morse decoders
He won! He won! He won!
Knight Temporal. :) Ex-Loopist. :(

richP
Posts: 174
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:28 pm UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby richP » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:44 pm UTC

hunjoh wrote:
NetWeasel wrote:
Let me make sure I understand your point...

Let's say I buy a chunk of land outside of Benton Harbor, Michigan -- barely east of Lake Michigan. And I build a scale model of the Med out of concrete. And then I punch the appropriate sized hole in the Lake Michigan side so that it will fill "over a space of many days."

Are you saying that I'll have the same scale effects if my model is 25 feet across as i would if it were 25 miles across?


With some adjustments, maybe.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Army_ ... _Bay_Model


Lots of adjustments would be needed if we were interested in the dynamic effects. Note the comments at the bottom of the Wiki site regarding horizontal, vertical, and (wait for it), time scale. Fluid dynamics has strange scaling effects, some things scale at x^3, some at x^4.

The Wiki article on similitude explains better than I can (Fluid dynamics class was part of what convinced me to change from mechanical engineering to electrical engineering...)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Similitude_%28model%29

User avatar
CasCat
Posts: 277
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 1:42 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby CasCat » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:47 pm UTC

Spoiler:
Tatiana wrote:
CasCat wrote:
Tatiana wrote:The flashes of light! Of course that is some kind of communication system! They might have been able to send a message to some beanies at a tower not far from the Forty, and warn them that way. Except it's likely that all the beanies have been recalled from the network of towers for their safety. I still think Hypatia when saying Cuegan must say their goodbyes from the castle was speaking literally. I think the Beanies have a way to communicate with the Forty. So maybe they could warn them to run quickly to higher ground. I don't know. Hypatia didn't seem to think there was time for them to escape the flood in any case.


Megan and Cueball didn't know that the flashes of light they saw were communication attempts. (In fact, they still don't.) Why would the rest of The Forty? "Ok, look. Some flashes of light on the horizon. Interesting. Well, better finish weaving this basket...."

In order for communication to work, there has to be someone who knows how to receive it and interpret it.


Yes, that's why my first thought was communication to beanies at nearby (to the Forty) towers... who would likely have been recalled by now. Yet if my hypothesis is true that Hypatia knows of some way Cuegan could say their goodbyes from the castle, then there must be some way to communicate long distance. We don't know what technology they have, after all. The light flashes do hint at a communication network, though, which is promising.


I really don't think she was saying "you can say goodbye to your doomed family, and here's how." I think she was saying, "you have to come to terms with the fact that they are doomed and you can't save them". Say goodbye from here means a memorial service, not a telegram.

Even if the Beanies had a communications network, the evidence is that they were pulling back their people at the same time that Cuegan started their journey. Note that the first tower they came to was already deserted and that they were already ready to leave the second tower when Cuegan got there; it's possible that their departure was actually delayed by spotting Cuegan in the distance (those flashes of light could have been reflections from a telescope). If the network is pulled in, there's no way to get the word out. And Rosetta seemed genuinely apologetic that The Forty hadn't been... and couldn't now be... warned.

I'm afraid it's up to Cuegan.
BlitzGirl the Fast the First

User avatar
b2bomberkrh
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:50 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby b2bomberkrh » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:53 pm UTC

jjjdavidson wrote:
b2bomberkrh wrote:
Spoiler:
jjjdavidson wrote:
robbak wrote:
jjjdavidson wrote:
robbak wrote:Various sources show a flow rate through the strait at 300km/hr. While that is huge, it makes sense for a flow a few hundred meters high with an ocean behind it and nothing in front of it.

But this, admittedly enormous, momentum runs into a humongous body of water. It would cause large currents in the Med, but not a kilometer high sloshing. If there are tsunamis, then they would be caused by undersea landslides and earthquakes, which would be common with such a rapid flooding.

Remember, we're starting with a mostly-empty Med basin. I think what keithl is saying is that, with a catastrophic refill that happens in weeks, practically the entire Med would be the current ─ that you'd have a mass of water 2000 miles long all moving eastward, to eventually wash over Lebanon and Syria.
Here is a better way putting my point across: Consider any body of water - bucket, bathtub, swimming pool - that fills in any way over a space of many days. Is there any major sloshing due to the inflow rate?

Things like this do roughly scale. On the local scale - at Gibraltar, below Sicily - the scale of this would be impressive. But on the scale of the entire sea, it would be fairly steady. The huge scale makes huge amounts of energy, but also huge amounts of mass to absorb that energy.

Excellent image: That gives me a way to ask the question. In a filling bathtub, the water stays effectively level (ignoring ripples). In a river, there's a continuous slope to the water (my mother lives above a dam on the Arkansas river, and the water level at her house actually drops when the flow rate increases, because the slope of the reservoir increases).

Spoiler:
I wanted to point out what the scaling of the problem implies here. I'm not certain how well things really will scale in this case, but even assuming they do, consider this. A bathtub is about 2 meters long. If the Mediterranean is roughly 1000 km long, then the scaling factor is 500,000. This means that a 2 mm (or about a tenth of an inch) change in the bathtub level corresponds to a 1 km change in the level of the Mediterranean. So, all the claims of how a bathtub is "mostly smooth", or fills with "little sloshing" and so on, when scaled up, are still massive waves going back and forth across the Mediterranean.

ETA: Also, note that the Mediterranean is an EXTREMELY shallow bathtub, another reason why comparisons aren't necessarily accurate. Most people don't realize how flat the surface of the Earth is on the scale of the Earth itself, and how much bigger geographic features such as seas are in their surface area than they are in depth. My rough calculation indicates the Mediterranean is approximately the shape of a normal size bathtub that is 1 cm deep.

These are very good points, and the scale is even more exaggerated than your rough figures. Actually, my fairly standard bathtub has a floor that's only about 1.2m long, and my maps all indicate the Med is perhaps 3300km, giving a bathtub-to-Med scaling factor of 2.75 million to 1, and an average "bathtub depth" of only about half a millimeter.

hunjoh wrote:
Spoiler:
jjjdavidson wrote:@keithl, you were the one who first brought up seismic activity triggered by the weight of inflowing water, so I have another question: ③ How much might the Med basin and the surrounding former coastline have risen as petatons of sea water evaporated? Enough to be significant?

I think so.

If we look at post-glacial rebound we can see the effect of removing the weight of large volumes of water. This article (https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/ndnotes/Rebound/Glacial%20Rebound.htm) states "The earth's crust behaves as an elastic structure and glaciologists know that, once the ice reaches a certain thickness, it depresses the crust about a foot for every three feet of ice." (Emphasis mine) Given that sea water is a little more dense than ice, this would seem to be a good lower bound.
keithl wrote:Safety of various shoreline places:
The volume of the Mediterranean is 3,750,000 km3, the average depth is 1,500m...
So an average of 500 meters of rebound once the water is removed. More significantly, 500 meters of depression in a matter of months as the water flows back in, in an area that others have noted is crossed by faults. (Would this cause the depth of the Straight of Gibraltar to increase as the water fills the adjacent Mediterranean basin? Independent of new erosion?)
Spoiler:
Note: Anticipating the question of how fast the land could rise or fall, here is a quote from Wikipedia on the subject. "Studies have shown that the uplift has taken place in two distinct stages. The initial uplift following deglaciation was near-instantaneous due to the elastic response of the crust as the ice load was removed. After this elastic phase, uplift proceeded by slow viscous flow so the rate of uplift decreased exponentially after that. "

:shock: Wow. No wonder keithl was predicting earthquakes. So now I wonder: Has Randall Have the Beanies taken rebound into account in their shoreline forecasts? Regarding the Strait specifically: I'd think the combined weight of the Atlantic and the pillars of Hercules would have the Strait already fairly well depressed; I'd expect instead of a substantial drop in the Strait to have shear quakes in Spain and Morocco (but I'm no geologist, so this is practically all WAG).

Portal to Mars, duh! Although here I'm afraid Randall utterly neglected conservation of energy. In traveling from Earth orbit to Mars orbit, the water gains an enormous amount of potential energy in the Sun's gravity well, so it should arrive on Mars as chunks of supercooled ice. (So much for the poor Curiosity rover!) This would be mitigated somewhat by Mars' lower gravity and lower orbital velocity, but probably not all that much. [Probably ninja'd by someone in the What If? fora, but I'm too lazy to check there, much less actually do any of the energy calculations.]


Thanks for the improved estimate of the scaling. This certainly shows why any comparisons to filling a bathtub or a bucket don't really apply. The Mediterranean simply isn't shaped like any everyday objects that we fill with water.

As far as taking into account the rebound. It depends on whether compression also takes place in two stages, just like rebound. If compression doesn't, then Randall doesn't need to take the effect into account, because the new shoreline will just be the same as our current shoreline, assuming the Atlantic is still the same level. The unflooded Mediterranean basin would look different from the current seafloor due to rebound, but that isn't critical here. The Beanies, on the other hand, would need to take this effect into account, since their calculations need to include compression, which Randall doesn't need to do, since he already knows the "right" answer (i.e. the current shoreline).

In regards to the portal to Mars, conservation of energy (and for that matter, momentum and angular momentum) can't really work in this case anyway, or else the water would come in with a HUGE (and changing) velocity, and a lot of kinetic energy, due to the difference in the orbital velocities of Mars and Earth. Wormholes/portals/mutant teleporters/Star Trek transporters, all have to magically take care of any silly little conservation laws. (Observe from the first Abrams Star Trek movie what happened when Kirk and Sulu got transported to the Enterprise while plunging towards the surface of Vulcan. They didn't even retain their velocity relative to their surroundings, much less their velocity relative to the Enterprise. The transporters have to null out any relative velocity to work.)
Last edited by b2bomberkrh on Sun Jul 21, 2013 3:00 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
b2bomberkrh
Posts: 162
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:50 am UTC

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby b2bomberkrh » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:59 pm UTC

Only 2 minutes to find out, but I'm going to add my vote to it being the map. That was what I thought of as soon as I saw the current pic.

User avatar
svenman
Posts: 554
Joined: Fri Jun 14, 2013 2:09 pm UTC
Location: 680 km NNE of the Château d'If

Re: 1190: "Time"

Postby svenman » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:59 pm UTC

charlie_grumbles wrote:Various musings:

Dam across the Straights of Gibraltar (human made).
This is pretty unlikely. It is 14km across and between 300 and 900 m deep. I think the negative consequences of such a thing are pretty well known. Especially if you want to lower the level of the Med basin. Doing it for power generation is a different issue, but that wouldn't lower the levels. A huge amount of material that has to come from somewhere if nothing else. Gibraltar itself is a possibility, but why would you do it?


This has in part been addressed before, but suppose humanity finds itself in a situation where global warming and rising sea levels is well under way. A Gibraltar dam project (together with a similar, smaller project at the Suez canal) could have a double benefit then: a) managing the sea level in the Mediterranean in order to keep it stable at least there, and b) generating huge amounts of hydroelectricity for Europe and Northern Africa, thus contributing to the curbing of global CO2 output and therefore working at the root of the problem in the first place. So yes, I could imagine it to be a project seen as worthwhile at some point in the future.

The actual blockage at Gibraltar, probably due to the fall of civilization which could have possibly been triggered by the Antares supernova, would have been unintended and could have happened hundreds or even thousands of years after more or less faultless operation of the Gibraltar dam project.

Geographical note: Such a dam would probably be built neither from the actual Gibraltar rock southward nor at the narrowest part of the strait some 20 km further west, but rather even further west, from around Punta Paloma to just east of Tanger, where the strait is wider but significantly shallower, around 300 metres (that's where the Camarinal Sill mentioned by charlie_grumbles is). Near Gibraltar or Tarifa (the actual southernmost point of the Iberic peninsula), the seafloor of the strait at its deepest reaches depths of up to 900 metres. This gives some indication of the erosional forces that were at work in gouging out the strait in the first place...

Can't find the quote right now that asked whether Rosetta and her team took tectonic rise due to the missing weight of the Mediterranean's sea water in account when predicting the new shoreline. I suspect that instead of basing their predictions on elaborate and extensive terrain level measurements, they rather based it on the shoreline around AD 2000 (i. e. our outside present) which they may have learnt either from preserved old maps or geological examination.

A worrying thought: If the Beanies actually have a communications network based on optical signals, then Rosetta may indeed have had information that the berm at Gibraltar has already given way catastrophically. So in order to save their people, Cuegan are indeed in a race against...
Spoiler:
time.
Mostly active on the One True Thread.
If you need help understanding what's going on there, the xkcd Time Wiki may be useful.

Addams didn't die! But will Addams have a place to live? You can help!

Randallspeed to all blitzers on the One True Thread!


Return to “Individual XKCD Comic Threads”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests