Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

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thdl
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby thdl » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:09 am UTC

Are you claiming mafia or cult there DJ? If the former, who's your scummate, and how is the kill controlled? There is a very good (67% FMPOV, and 50% from unchanged mafia POV) chance that one of the mafia was culted last night. If it is who I expect it is, then I think I know who the more likely culter is of the remaining two (if, indeed, we have a choice).

Also, again, there might be more that 1 town alive (same probabilities as a culted mafia).

also,

@ConMan: I hadn't considered that the cult spawn might have been a 1 off, but I agree that I'm not sure whether or not I would prefer that.

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Djehutynakht
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:09 am UTC

Even though we all have a 4/5 chance of scum, I think I speak for everyone in saying I'm the 1 town. A 1-off cult might be possible though #SeriousPondering #TooShortToAnswerAll

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cjquines
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby cjquines » Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:27 am UTC

post4.png

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StubbsKVM
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:43 am UTC

Well everybody is going to say they're town. This is not getting us anywhere.

I want to remind you to be careful about putting someone at L-1. Conman had obviously forgotten about it already.
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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thdl
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby thdl » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:07 pm UTC

Ok, seriously people. The jig is up. I know that at least 2, probably all 3 of you are lying (also, conman will probably claim town: then it's 3, probably 4). Quit claiming town for my benefit, as it isn't helping you sway me to crown you the winner tomorrow.

Also, DJ, it is NOT 4/5 necessarily. Indeed, a towny would believe this to be less likely than 3/5.

My spec has changed significantly since yesterday, and I think I have the game figured out. I still don't see a way to pull a win out of it, but if I am right I can at least pat myself on the back for scumhuntery.

Relevant question:

Do Mafia have day chat?
Do Cult have day chat?


Note that in Lataro's revised PM implies that if a second cult has spawned, then it's leader is informed of the original's identity, so there are multiple linkages going on here (but pretty much all of you know that... don't you).


Standing offer mafia. You need the cult taken out, and I need the cult take out. We have a >50% shot if we work together. Since you seem so reluctant (at least 1 of you has posted since the offer for certain), lets make this interesting. If a cultist claims first, I'll work with them to take out the mafia instead - if you used to be town, we could probably recruit the original culter's help, and if you used to be mafia, then the other towny will hopefully join in.

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wam
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby wam » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:16 pm UTC

All teams with chat have chat at all points during the game
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:41 pm UTC

I don't really see your point thdl.

Mafia have a night kill and working with them is like handing them the game.

What are you trying to accomplish?
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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thdl
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby thdl » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:58 pm UTC

StubbsKVM wrote:I don't really see your point thdl.

Mafia have a night kill and working with them is like handing them the game.

What are you trying to accomplish?


Only sort of. At this point, I cannot win - I have no win condition, and therefore I make up my own. No sequence of actions (barring a large amount of luck and some pretty clear scum misteps) results in a town win. So I just get to choose. I wanted to choose mafia, as it has always struck me as more "sporting" than cult, but since this is dragging on, I decided it would be more fun for me if there were a competition. So who wants to win?

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Djehutynakht
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Jul 25, 2013 8:26 pm UTC

Mafia do have a night kill, but cult has a recruit, which isn’t all that better. I’m thinking Stubbs is cult. #FoS

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ConMan
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby ConMan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:38 am UTC

thdl wrote:Ok, seriously people. The jig is up. I know that at least 2, probably all 3 of you are lying (also, conman will probably claim town: then it's 3, probably 4). Quit claiming town for my benefit, as it isn't helping you sway me to crown you the winner tomorrow.

And I thought you knew me so well (actually, I didn't, but that's neither here nor there).

At this point, I had already planned to claim. I am scum. I'm not going to out my partner at this point, nor am I going to discuss whether I think he's been culted or not (but I'm really hoping he hasn't). Our win conditions are such that it is very, very difficult for us to both win, but we are still trying our hardest to do so.

thdl, you propose two of the three other players' names, based on your suspicions of who's the cult leader. I suggest that the two named vote for each other, because I will vote for one of them and thdl can hammer. I think that gives us the best chance of succeeding for the least information given.
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:10 am UTC

Interesting claim Con. For myself, I believe cjquines is either a town or started as a town. I think Stubbs is cult, and tdhl is suspicious #Mythoughts

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby ConMan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:18 am UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:Interesting claim Con. For myself, I believe cjquines is either a town or started as a town. I think Stubbs is cult, and tdhl is suspicious #Mythoughts

Unfortunately it's hard for me to comment on your suspicions without outing my partner, but I do agree with at least some of it.
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:37 pm UTC

Dj-conman scumteam?
That discussion feels so forced!
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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thdl
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby thdl » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:10 pm UTC

ConMan wrote:
thdl wrote:Ok, seriously people. The jig is up. I know that at least 2, probably all 3 of you are lying (also, conman will probably claim town: then it's 3, probably 4). Quit claiming town for my benefit, as it isn't helping you sway me to crown you the winner tomorrow.

And I thought you knew me so well (actually, I didn't, but that's neither here nor there).

At this point, I had already planned to claim. I am scum. I'm not going to out my partner at this point, nor am I going to discuss whether I think he's been culted or not (but I'm really hoping he hasn't). Our win conditions are such that it is very, very difficult for us to both win, but we are still trying our hardest to do so.

thdl, you propose two of the three other players' names, based on your suspicions of who's the cult leader. I suggest that the two named vote for each other, because I will vote for one of them and thdl can hammer. I think that gives us the best chance of succeeding for the least information given.


And I had just moved you off my scumlist too....

As for your suggestion: No.

That sounds less fun to me. I'd much rather see the mafia vs some amount of scum free for all (as you may have guessed from my previous suggestions). I'd also like to see if I got any of my spec right at all. Right now, I'm thinking DJ's your original scummate and CJ is either orginal cultist or culted (by Stubbs?). I think the two of them are some variety of cult aligned though, as they are the only ones to accuse people of being cult without accusations of mafia so far. That's just a gut thing however. Stubbs is also pinging me heavily (which is why you were off the scumlist, I was betting DJ and Stubbs before - like I said, changed heavily), but your claim is forcing me to reevaluate. Not that any of this matters, this is just scumdar calibration.

So here's my counter offer: Claim the name of your partner or I vote for you and we go into a very interesting night. I'll commit to voting with you or your partner tomorrow to sweeten the deal. What do you say?

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:37 pm UTC

I have not accused anyone of being cult and I have called a mafia team.

Are you even reading??
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Sat Jul 27, 2013 7:09 am UTC

I think Stubbs is the cult leader. Or maybe tdhl is really good at what he's doing. Not quite sure what conman's up to #NeedToPonder #I'mSleepy,Ok?

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:16 am UTC

When does D3 end? #BoldQuestion

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby wam » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:01 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:When does D3 end? #BoldQuestion


I will give you 72 hours from this post.
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby ConMan » Mon Jul 29, 2013 1:44 am UTC

Grr. Stupid internet died when I hit submit, losing my moderately lengthy post here. Let me try to recover the salient points.

thdl wrote:And I had just moved you off my scumlist too....

As for your suggestion: No.

That sounds less fun to me. I'd much rather see the mafia vs some amount of scum free for all (as you may have guessed from my previous suggestions). I'd also like to see if I got any of my spec right at all. Right now, I'm thinking DJ's your original scummate and CJ is either orginal cultist or culted (by Stubbs?). I think the two of them are some variety of cult aligned though, as they are the only ones to accuse people of being cult without accusations of mafia so far. That's just a gut thing however. Stubbs is also pinging me heavily (which is why you were off the scumlist, I was betting DJ and Stubbs before - like I said, changed heavily), but your claim is forcing me to reevaluate. Not that any of this matters, this is just scumdar calibration.

So here's my counter offer: Claim the name of your partner or I vote for you and we go into a very interesting night. I'll commit to voting with you or your partner tomorrow to sweeten the deal. What do you say?

Nope, I still need my partner to be unknown to give us a chance of winning. However, I'm surprised at your surprise. Of course I'm not going to claim cult, and claiming town doesn't really move things forward much - as you point out, from a townie's point of view there's a pretty decent chance there *are* no other townies, so a town claim is almost meaningless. Scum puts me out in the open, which at least gives me a position from which to open discussions (if you want to disbelieve my claim, you are welcome to, but let's at least talk as though I'm being honest just as I am doing for you).

So, if thdl isn't going to help me, then I guess I'll have to do a bit of cult-hunting of my own. So what follows is a recreation of the original messy train of thought based on looking at today's posts.

cjquines' post restriction is definitely a good defence to hide behind, but even with that he hasn't posted a heck of a lot of content. His first post was pretty bold - claiming to be the "town original", claiming to have failed at rolecopping Lataro, and calling for a massclaim. The roleclaim is in line with what we've seen, but the claimed action is incredibly uninformative and I'm pretty sure that even at this point a massclaim is a bad idea (for someone, at least).

thdl has posted lots of analysis, and I admit I'm a sucker for such a play - even at this point, it looks townie against all the odds (pun not intended). If telling the truth, he is now probably the town kingmaker. Otherwise, he is presumably practising his "Dance, puppets, dance!" routine in the background. A lot of what he says seems right from my point of view, which helps my estimation of him.

Dje has had a bit of trouble interpreting what thdl is saying, or is trying to either distance or draw out a tell. I'm having trouble working that out, and his posting restriction is not helping. I doubt that Dje and thdl are cult together, but I could imagine Dje getting culted just as I could cj, both because post restrictions make it easy to hide their own tells.

StubbsKVM wrote:Dj-conman scumteam?
That discussion feels so forced!

Yeah, I can see where that comes from. Dje is forced to make short posts, whereas I tend to do so if I don't want to compile a huge rambling post like this one. And, since he seems to be online at similar times to me, which aren't necessarily the times other people have been active, I wind up chatting with him over others and making more short posts because there's only a little content for me to reply to. And it doesn't help that I've been trying to not out my partner, directly or indirectly.

Stubbs, on the other hand, has not provided a lot of content today either. And what he has provided has been broadly of the flavour "Don't look for the cult, look for the mafia! They're the real danger!" Which, of course, is not the kind of message I care to hear, and which frankly sounds just a little bit like he's trying to redirect attention. In fact, I'm increasingly tempted to believe that Stubbs is cult, enough so that I'm happy to place my vote on him.

Vote StubbsKVM
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Mon Jul 29, 2013 2:07 am UTC

Stubbs is downright fishy to me. Although ConMan claimed not-town, at this point in the game, that doesn't mean much. #FoS

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby thdl » Mon Jul 29, 2013 2:39 am UTC

ConMan wrote:Nope, I still need my partner to be unknown to give us a chance of winning.

Now that's just not true, you would just go into a game of "out-guess the cult." That's much more fun. Also, I'll admit, I hadn't considered the possibility of you false claiming (though I did expect a pair to confirm eachother). And, well, you see, this is the problem with ultimatums. You have to follow through.

All loyal townies must cast down the admitted mafia who has been murdering our friends in their sleep. Please, if you're out there, join me in casting off the yolk of organized crime:

For the Town of Mafiascum!

Vote: ConMan

Good luck tonight everyone :)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby ConMan » Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:05 am UTC

thdl wrote:
ConMan wrote:Nope, I still need my partner to be unknown to give us a chance of winning.

Now that's just not true, you would just go into a game of "out-guess the cult."

Actually, thanks to my win condition, what I said above is either true or closer-to-true than you realise. There's an extra rider in there that means that even if every other player simultaneously conceded and/or died mysterious deaths, I'd still not have won. I don't expect anyone else to try to help me get it, though (other than my partner), so at this point I'll be happy to see whether we can even pull off a standard mafia win.
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I want to learn this smile, perfect it, and then go around smiling at lesbians and freaking them out.

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:26 pm UTC

Ah to heck with it. I was afraid of a hammer, but why? Want him lynched anyways #MobRule

Vote: Stubbs KVM

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby wam » Mon Jul 29, 2013 6:33 pm UTC

47.5 Hours to deadline

Votals

Stubbs - 2 - (Conman, Djehutynakht)
Conman - 1 - (Thdl)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:20 pm UTC

Thanks scum DJ.
The L-1 warning doesn't apply to myself.

I'm the town carpenter, I'm obliged to hammer anyone but myself.
I don't mind hammering either of you.
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:27 am UTC

This is worst roles. Why wouldn't you have to hammer yourself? That's letting you off too easy #FoS

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby wam » Tue Jul 30, 2013 5:50 pm UTC

24 Hours to deadline!
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Wed Jul 31, 2013 9:25 am UTC

CJ, you need to start voting.
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Wed Jul 31, 2013 9:26 am UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:This is worst roles. Why wouldn't you have to hammer yourself? That's letting you off too easy #FoS


I'm glad it isn't. I'm glad I found the scum this way.

vote conman

You're next Dj
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby cjquines » Wed Jul 31, 2013 10:01 am UTC

vote conman

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:59 pm UTC

Hammer?
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby wam » Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:26 pm UTC

Yes that was hammer. proper day end post shen i get home in about 3 hiurs. sorry for the ddelay got distarcted by multiverse.
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:05 pm UTC

StubbsKVM wrote:I'm glad it isn't. I'm glad I found the scum this way.


I call BS. Without having to hammer yourself, your role is only lukewarm. Not too bad. Therefore, it wouldn't be suitable. Therefore #youLIE

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:08 pm UTC

Says the Twitter guy...
I don't see anything bad about your role
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby wam » Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:42 pm UTC

Votals

Stubbs - 2 - (Conman, Djehutynakht)
Conman - 3 - (Thdl, stubbs, CJquines)

Conman has been lynched his role will be revealed in the morning.

It is now N3 you have 48 hours till D4 starts get those actions in.
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby wam » Sat Aug 03, 2013 11:40 am UTC

A New day dawns and you find stubbs lying there dead, along with Conman who you strung up the previous day.

Conmna was lynched

His role pM is below


Mafia Jester
You are the mafia Jester, you win when the mafia are the only remaining faction, or this is inevitable, and you are dead. Your partner is XXXX you may chat at all times please cc both mods on all Pms.


Stubss was Killed

His Role PM is below


You are the cult recruiter, you win if your faction is the last left alive.

However, you are very jealous, if another cult exists or is formed you must be recruited into that cult and kill off the leader.

Each night you may send a player name to the mod’s and they will be recruited to your cult.


It is now D4 3 Alive 2 to lynch deadline on Thursday
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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby StubbsKVM » Sat Aug 03, 2013 11:57 am UTC

My work...is not...complete...urgh...
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby cjquines » Sun Aug 04, 2013 2:07 am UTC

LyLo?

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby Djehutynakht » Sun Aug 04, 2013 7:09 am UTC

I suppose that depends. There's at least one Mafioso left... And quite frankly, with Stubbs and Con dead... #FOScjquines

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Re: Worst Roles Mafia - D3 Who knows whats going on

Postby ConMan » Sun Aug 04, 2013 10:58 pm UTC

Damn ... I mean yay ... I mean damn ... I mean ... urk.
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