Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

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moody7277
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:25 pm UTC

What I'm saying is that only having one mafia doesn't make sense. Starting at 16 players, the usual percentage would give us 3 or 4 mafia. Since RR decided to go with the gourmet vanilla, which as you say included cult and a SK, 3 might be feasible. Given the deaths as indicated, that start would leave us at 7/3/1 (town/scum/cult), which gives us only two mislynches before LYLO. I say weiyaoli was minimizing the danger because with only one scum we could be more blase about scum hunting, which is an attitude I'm sure scum would be perfectly willing for us to have.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Wed Sep 23, 2015 2:09 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:What I'm saying is that only having one mafia doesn't make sense.

Of course it doesn't solo mafia IS an SK.

Starting at 16 players, the usual percentage would give us 3 or 4 mafia.

Four mafia in a 16 player game gives mafia a huge chance of winning

Since RR decided to go with the gourmet vanilla, which as you say included cult and a SK, 3 might be feasible. Given the deaths as indicated, that start would leave us at 7/3/1 (town/scum/cult),

You missed the possibility of multiple SK's there. And let's look at the start assuming Nebu is the only independent. D1 11/3/1/1 (town, mafia, Cult, indie) It's reasonable to expect D2 7/3/2/1 Which gives really low odds of survival. I think either mafia of 2 or no mafia is the most likely set up.

I say weiyaoli was minimizing the danger because with only one scum we could be more blase about scum hunting, which is an attitude I'm sure scum would be perfectly willing for us to have.

I don't think weiyaoli's point is that we shouldn't hunt scum it's that mafia tells may not be the best way to scum hunt in this game because the group could be very small. It's worth considering that actually we might be looking for indy tells. I've seen cult games before with 0 mafia and lots of indy's, I'm not saying this game is that but it might be worth considering it.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 23, 2015 2:34 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:
moody7277 wrote:What I'm saying is that only having one mafia doesn't make sense.


Of course it doesn't solo mafia IS an SK


We've established that, but it didn't seem like weiyaoli figured that.

SPACKlick wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Starting at 16 players, the usual percentage would give us 3 or 4 mafia.


Four mafia in a 16 player game gives mafia a huge chance of winning


I'll take your word on that, given you've crunched the numbers.

SPACKlick wrote:You missed the possibility of multiple SK's there.


I didn't miss the possibility, I discounted it entirely given that I've never heard of such a thing. This and your last response seem to indicate that you've seen some pretty exotic setups. My ultimate point is that even with RR's expanded sense of what constitutes "vanilla", this game isn't supposed to be anywhere near that kind of setup.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby nolemonplease » Wed Sep 23, 2015 4:49 pm UTC

Doesn't one of those roles that died usually have a kill? SK?

My current theory is that there is no mafia with only 1 kill on N1. Will see what happens tonight, I guess.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby dimochka » Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:26 pm UTC

A few thoughts plus the very long-overdue responses.

1. We are assuming 1 sk, 1 cult, 1 type of mafia. There actually could be multiple of either.

2. I really don't like lynx's response regarding his win-con. This is no longer a discussion of role PMs.

3. Regarding the cultee - I disagree that we have nothing to go on. A few things we should look at are: (1) Whom Carlington may have recruited. (2) Who may have acted like a non-VT in some way but is now essentially VT. The second point is something I haven't seen mentioned. Also, as I said before, cult is NOT a priority. FWIW, let whatever kill powers exist in game hopefully help us deal with cult for the next day or two. A role whose only way to win is to survive to endgame with no power is the least worrisome to us. We shouldn't waste our time discussing who is cult and who isn't currently, UNLESS we go back to my point #1 and think that there may have been two recruiters (yes, unlikely, but not impossible).

4. Let's think about Carlington for a moment. I was going to suggest that there may have been a PGO role that killed him as well, but doesn't look like it's in the list of roles. So the options are:
- Vig - makes sense, especially since we suspected him
- Mafia - least likely, would let him be lynched later down the line most likely
- SK - possible, since for an SK the threat comes from both mafia and town (in particular power roles)
Based on this, I'm nearly certain that we have a Vig or an SK. Or Both. Or several of both.

5. Regarding the presence of mafia, the options I see are as follows (and this is partially taken from Spack's post)
- Mafia killed Carlington - unlikely based on my #4
- Mafia got blocked by doctor - that's more possible but the chances in a game with 14 people alive at beginning of N1 are low
- Mafia got roleblocked - about the same chances as the doctor (but we should consider those as separate events that could both happen, so chances are nearly double overall)
- There's no mafia - possible and I'm thinking may be more likely than the other options
- Mafia withheld kill - in a more complex game I would consider this a possibility. In this game we shouldn't have any mechanics that would force a specific player to use the mafia kill, so I don't really see much of a benefit for mafia to withhold. Chances of being tracked are low, and chances of a watcher targeting carlington are even lower.
I don't want to discount any of these yet, but wanted to put them out there and feel free to dissect those.

6. Responses to Spack: (a - response to why only one kill from possible vig) if what I hypothesized above holds true, I'll add my thought on D1 that SK could withhold to make it seems like there was no SK. This actually makes a lot of sense since SK would've been a not very vanilla role and therefore for him withholding the kill would make it seem like the SK isn't in game. I would expect to see more kills (or kill attempts) N2. (b - why ajh and nebu are town) Let's see.
- Ajh - first points to bessie and spack as both sounding right but unsure who is more right. I originally thought dj/carl were bussing each other but we pretty much know this to be untrue. he focuses quite a bit on bessie for first 3 posts completely ignoring the role PM thing or not noticing it. Given that I believed bessie was likely town, I felt his focus on her was too risky to be done by town, as well as missing things like the role PM thing (scum would've been more careful in my opinion, especially given that ajh's posts were so spread out)
- Nebu - first post about math, irrelevant in my eyes. his 2nd post jumped out to me as potential breadcrumbing of a PR (which by the way I no longer think that he is) but otherwise went back to his original post which I didn't think important. Post 3 unvotes. Post 4 gives thoughts on roles in game and post 5 defends his use of "almost certainly exist" (which is where I thought that he actually is vanilla town trying to attract a kill or scum trying to muddy the water). Then he actually puts a very well-constructed post regarding EH (where i felt he was leaning town and what caused my suspicion on EH).

7. Responses to Dr Ug - just re-read and he never actually pointed to anything I could respond to. Correct me if I'm wrong. I did ask for an explanation of why I'm scum because I think it's important to give explanations to those things.

8. Responses to bessie
bessie wrote:
dimochka wrote:I think our focus on DJ/lynx has been way too strong without any concrete evidence.

dimochka makes this statement, but doesn't offer any alternatives except moody and Carlington. Then he says this in the same post that he is willing to lynch "any of you three in any order whatsoever" and I'm not exactly sure who he means. Has your opinion changed on lynx and DJ now that we know the game isn’t vanilla?

I'm sorry, how many alternatives do I need to offer to dj/lynx? I pointed out who I thought was scummy.
The three related to moody since he posted while I was making my post, hence the EBWOP (sorry this was unclear, my fault)
My opinion on them has not changed. I think lynx and DJ are just as likely to be anti-town as I originally thought.

Wei - what are your thoughts on moody? You were planning to post about him.

I very much prefer to lynch one of {lynx,DJ} and actually go through a planned night. I'm curious who else agrees with me. So far we're doing if ignoring the modkills.

EBWOP: As mentioned, I think nolemon and moody have a good point in their last post about having more indy roles. Or mafia has been doing a great job so far.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:39 pm UTC

Deadline for D2 is Noon EDT next Friday.

Votals:
Lynx (3): SPACKlick, bessie, Nolemonplease
SPAKlick (1): Vytron

11 Players, 6 to lynch, 4 to lynch at deadline.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby weiyaoli » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:43 pm UTC

Sorry for being awol, had something come up that's been taking up all of my time. Will try and get around to making some posts this weekend.
And you thought I was crazy...

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:04 pm UTC

Okay, still reading, still here.

If I had to decide to lynch someone, right now, it'd be Lynx, so, it's actually not that bad that they're leading the votals.

Unvote
Vote: Lynx


It's the person we'd have lynched if the sudden modkill didn't happen, anyway.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby SPACKlick » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:36 am UTC

Sorry to do this but My course has taken away most of my internet time I'm afraid I need to ask for a replacement.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby ajh » Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:40 am UTC

nolemonplease wrote:I was under the impression that this was a hidden roleset that vanilla themed, not necessarily a vanilla roleset. So not totally surprising to me.
Right now, my theory is that we have mafia members, and the mafia kill last night was Carlington. From there, I wonder why Carlington was killed. Looking back at who he pushed, it seems to be DJ/lynx.

Vote: lynx
What gave you the idea the vanilla was just flavor? I thought it was pretty much consensus yesterday there weren’t many powers in the game. Your jump from Carlington’s death to voting lynx seems awfully convenient for scum, as they seem pretty close to getting lynched.

dimochka wrote:6. Responses to Spack: (b - why ajh and nebu are town) Let's see.
- Ajh - first points to bessie and spack as both sounding right but unsure who is more right. I originally thought dj/carl were bussing each other but we pretty much know this to be untrue. he focuses quite a bit on bessie for first 3 posts completely ignoring the role PM thing or not noticing it. Given that I believed bessie was likely town, I felt his focus on her was too risky to be done by town, as well as missing things like the role PM thing (scum would've been more careful in my opinion, especially given that ajh's posts were so spread out)
Sorry, I don’t quite understand who you’re referring to as scummy or not. Could you rephrase it?
Did you miss Nebu’s moddeath?

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby dimochka » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:20 pm UTC

Sorry I'm back. and Wow.. I did totally miss the modkills. I have no idea how that happened. Re-reading from that point on.

As far as that quote - I was explaining why I believed you both were more likely town than scum, but now I need to re-evaluate all that.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby bessie » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:30 am UTC

Djehutynakht and lynx haven’t posted any game content since my long analysis post eight days ago, and nothing anyone else has posted has moved them higher than these two on my scum list, so I’m ready to end this day.
Djehutynakht wrote:Honestly Bessie, I generally am myself a bit impatient myself in voting and getting the day over with (even as town, which is something I need to temper) but honestly it does strike me as a bit shady.

Well then how about making a post? Your last post with any content was 10 days ago.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:38 am UTC

Vote: End Day

I don't see any kind of new discussion really going on.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby moody7277 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:46 pm UTC

Vote: lynx

We'll have more to discuss on D3.
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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:20 am UTC

I'm not entirely comfortable with Vytron switching to Lynx simply to ensure a lynch, but honestly, I get it. So I can't blame him. We've kind of died with regards to activity. Unfair against lynx, perhaps, but we really just need to get the game moving in general.

I move that we end the day.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby Vytron » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:40 am UTC

This isn't unfair against lynx. He'd have had more than enough time to defend his case, and I've heard nothing. This is the classic scum giving up, I won't be surprised when he flips scum.

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby weiyaoli » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:57 am UTC

Vote: lynx
so today ends.

Please replace me if possible, sorry about this, stuff unexpectedly came up and I've been busy the last week or so, and only expect to get busier starting from next week. I can still play if not, just don't expect long posts from me.
And you thought I was crazy...

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Re: Vanillafia D2 - We're out of chocolate chips

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:57 pm UTC

Votals:
Lynx (3): SPACKlick, bessie, Nolemonplease, Vytron, Moody7277, Weiyaoli

Lynx has been lynched. It is now night


Sorry for the delay, had to finish up moving stuff out of our old apartment and return the keys, and work suddenly decided to throw a big system changeover at me.
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby RoadieRich » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:12 pm UTC

The sun comes up, the freezer is opened. The desserts gather round to examine lynx. There's a collective gasp as someone reveals that he wasn't like the others.

Lynx was lemon sorbet, serial killer.

The icecreams go back to their business, doing whatever it is icecreams do when they're not being served to customers. Until someone else notices that there's been another death!

Weiyaoli has been killed. He was Vanilla, vanilla town.

It is now Day 3. 9 players, 5 to lynch.
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:10 pm UTC

Curiouser and Curiouser....

We've now had two "Lemon Sorbet: Serial Killer" deaths.

Perhaps it's a fake role?

Perhaps the Mafia have a condition upon their death that they turn up as "Lemon Sorbet: Serial Killer" instead of Mafia?

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby Vytron » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:35 pm UTC

Hmmm. I have to admit I have forgotten what was up with this game. Mainly, I don't remember any posts by Nolemonplease, even though they're there o_O

So, um, DJ and Lynx did stuff that made them suspicious D1. I didn't like Spack flipping a coin to decide to lynch DJ. And there was a cult, I think.

Vote: bessie

I think she's the optimal cult recruit. I'd be surprised if she wasn't culted by now.

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby bessie » Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:44 am UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:Curiouser and Curiouser....

We've now had two "Lemon Sorbet: Serial Killer" deaths.

Perhaps it's a fake role?

Perhaps the Mafia have a condition upon their death that they turn up as "Lemon Sorbet: Serial Killer" instead of Mafia?

You do realize that if lynx was on a team, you look even scummier for defending him?

Vytron, I guess I'll take your vote as a compliment?

I have no results of any kind to claim. More later, I need to reread.

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby dimochka » Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:13 am UTC

vote DJ

I'm a cop and he gave me a result of guilty. For what it's worth, N1 I copped EH.
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:22 am UTC

vote: DJ

I don't remember much of what was going on in this game. Cop claim is good enough for me though.
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby Vytron » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:35 am UTC

dimochka wrote:N1 I copped EH.


And what did you get?

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby dimochka » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:58 am UTC

Sorry, got not guilty for EH. Was in a rush when I was typing this earlier.
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby Vytron » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:54 am UTC

Okay...

Vote: Djehutynakht

This will be the weirdest of things if Dim is lying. But I actually hope we go with this and the game moves on.

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby moody7277 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:30 pm UTC

I think I had dim as fairly town, so...

Vote: DJ
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby nolemonplease » Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:07 pm UTC

Vote: Djehutynakht

Do games always feel this quiet and slow?

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby bessie » Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:19 pm UTC

I just noticed SPACKlick is on the player list.

RoadieRich, SPACKlick asked for a replacement.

I think we might have a hammer, but just to make sure:

Vote: Djehutynakht

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:10 pm UTC

The ice creams noticed a funny, familiar smell coming from Djehutynakht. They decided it was best to string him up just to be sure.

Djehutynakht has been lynched. He was Lemon Sorbet, Serial Killer.

Town win.
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:19 pm UTC

I think I should apologise to the players, first of all for using a non-standard definition of "vanilla", secondly, making a mistake with the role PMs and not stamping it out earlier, and thirdly, sending one player the wrong PM: when I randomized the roles, Nebuduck was supposed to be a vigilante, but he got sent the SK role PM. So town was considerably underpowered, and would have been in a bad spot had Nebuduck not targetted Carlington N1. Along with a lucky doctoring (which, like I said, blocked recruits), town had this in the bag from N1.

Things I've learned:
  • I don't have time to mod mafia on my own any more
  • Check and double check before clicking send on critical PMs
  • Consider the ramifications of every word in official PMs
  • I don't want to have to play against vytron again :P
  • I'm out of date: a lot has changed in the months I've been away from xkcd Mafia

Thanks for playing, sorry it got a bit slow towards the end, but excellent work on Town's part.
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby moody7277 » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:44 pm UTC

RoadieRich wrote:Along with a lucky doctoring (which, like I said, blocked recruits), town had this in the bag from N1.


I infer this to mean that Vytron was the recruit target. If that's so, then yay I actually did something!
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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Turtle Soup

Postby Vytron » Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:16 pm UTC

Congrats town! We actually suspected lynx and DJ early in the game!

And good job DJ, your reactions looked townie to me, so if it was in my hands, I'd have not lynched you D:

nolemonplease wrote:Do games always feel this quiet and slow?


No, this game is not representative of speed of games and talkativeness of players. Games tend to go like shameless advertizing.

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby Dr Ug » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:48 am UTC

To clarify, what was up with nebuduck's modkill for inactivity when he had been active?
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby Djehutynakht » Sun Oct 11, 2015 6:21 am UTC

Wha...?

Mafia has just been slapping me across the face recently.

For the record... what the hell were those mechanics, RR?

Was I the only real Lemon Sorbet: Serial Killer, or were there just 3 SKs in the game?

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby bessie » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:27 pm UTC

RoadieRich, I thought this was a great game, and an interesting setup. Thank you for running it. I’m sorry for the PM thing in the beginning, I had no idea it would get out of hand like that. I hope this isn’t a sore spot, but can you post the role PMs? Did the non-vanilla town roles have their win conditions?

So weiyaoli and nolemonsplease figured out the setup? Good job, I thought we had a mafia team. I hope I get to play again with all of you in the future.

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Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby RoadieRich » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:25 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:Was I the only real Lemon Sorbet: Serial Killer, or were there just 3 SKs in the game?


The setup was supposed to be 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 1 Vig, 1 Cult Leader and 2 SKs. I sent the wrong PM to the Vig, meaning there were 3 SKs. I didn't want to have a Mafia, but didn't want that to be too obvious to the players. I also didn't want to force town to work with SKs, hence my modification to the Doctor role, incase the Vig had to claim for some reason.

RE Nebuduck's modkill, I was working on a principle of "posted in the last X days" (I can't remember the exact value), and Nebuduck's post fell outside that. I missed that the post was, in fact, after the modprod.

Role PMs:
RoadieRich wrote:You are Vanilla, vanilla town. What did you expect?
RoadieRich wrote:You are Pistachio, for some reason I can't think up right now, a Town Cop.
RoadieRich wrote:You are Strawberry, a fruit. Fruit are healthy, right? You are a Town Doctor.
RoadieRich wrote:You are Chocolate Chips. You’ve been mixing up the flavours. You are a Cult Leader. You may attempt to recruit one player each night, with whom you may chat by PM at any time, provided I am CC'd on all messages. Your recruiting ability is not inherited should you die.
RoadieRich wrote:You are Lemon Sorbet. You’re not really an ice cream, and you’re bitter. You want the other ice creams gone. You are a Serial Killer.


The pm that should have been sent to Nebuduck is:
RoadieRich wrote:You are The Spoon. You actually like to keep your flavours separate, so you’re on the side of the icecream. You are a Town Vigilante.


How would people feel about playing this (or something very similar) as an open setup somewhere in the future?
73, de KE8BSL loc EN26.

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Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby Vytron » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:34 pm UTC

I'd definitively want a mafia over several SKs. The reason being, one is supposed to find out who is protecting who, or busing them, or distancing from them, because they're scumbuddies. With Serial Killers, you can't do that, because they don't care who they lynch, so the game lacks the connections expected to be analyzed to see who's in alliance with someone else.

It's a different game because you can't go "a ha! So X changed their vote in the last minute so that Y wasn't lynched" with SKs.

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Dr Ug
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Nov 10, 2009 12:58 am UTC
Location: Brisbane, Australia

Re: Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

Postby Dr Ug » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:32 am UTC

RoadieRich wrote:How would people feel about playing this (or something very similar) as an open setup somewhere in the future?
I tend to agree with Vytron, in that the lack of any connections makes picking the SK's essentially random. I don't think I would play it, honestly.
Where did my old signature go? :(


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