Smalltown Werewolf PYP - F is for Finished!

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sabrar » Mon Nov 16, 2015 4:24 pm UTC

Let's consider the independent factions:
- If Lawrencelot is Druid: I don't think it is good for him to deny an additional NK as it is far more probable for both Druids to get night-killed than lynched given the setup.
- If Lawrencelot is Jester: his play makes perfect sense from his point of view, however lynching Jester on D1 is I think good for Town as we will have less complications to worry about later.
- If Lawrencelot is Sibling Survivor: if he's so afraid of being lynched that he feels the need to claim then he would have a much higher chance of survival if he would tell the truth. Claiming falsely risks a counterclaim and subsequent lynch, while it may be argued that we would leave a Sibling Survivor alone as he's also interested in helping us eliminate the scum.
- If Lawrencelot is Traitor: in this case we would definitely want to lynch him.
Therefore I think that if Lawrencelot is independent then either he played poorly or it is in our best interest to lynch him.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Nov 16, 2015 8:54 pm UTC

Ok, here we go. I'm going to analyse the four players I had as scummy in my initial reads lists from Friday evening, namely Dimochka, patzer, DJ and Lawrencelot, in a bit more depth than before.

Dimochka:

In his first post after the game, he seems quite keen to get doctorified by Van. This could be because he genuinely considers his role quite weak, or because he is scum/third party who wants to be able to protect his team mates. So, is his role less useful than a doctor? The way I see it, Elmo could be seen as a kind of combi-roleblocker/tracker. Late vote-switching shenanigans aside, the target will know whether they are being targeted by Dimochka. As a result, they have to choose between revealing their target to Dimochka, and what sort of action they have, or withholding their action (hence the roleblocker side of things). This will reduce the amount of misinformation that they can spread, if an investigator type, or prevent a killer/protector from targeting someone without at least providing good reasons. Lone wolves will also not realistically be able to use their kills, although Alien and Werewolf factional abilities are unlikely to be affected, at least in early game, when they have a reasonable number of members. Overall, I'd judge it as 50/50 that the role is more or less useful than a doctor to town. On the other hand, to pretty much any other faction, a doctor would be very useful. Ergo, I consider this a minor scum tell, though others opinions on the role might differ.

He makes himself a valid target for Suzaku by voting for him. As others have indicated, this could be considered a townie/survivor indicator. I think it unlikely to be an alien action, although wine would indicate that they should actually vote for Suzaku. Similarly, it wouldn't surprise me if other anti-town factions have voted him already, so I consider this a bit of a null tell. He goes on to vote ConMan, with the intention of using his power. I can't fault his logic here, and given he appears to have done this without anybody suggesting it, I actually consider this a townie point in his favour, as finding out a bit more about ConMan could be quite important. On the other hand, if ConMan is in a scum team, it could be an attempt to hide what he is capable of. Overall, a townie point, but becomes less so if ConMan ever flips alien or werewolf.

His most recent post promised more, which never showed up. Not really scummy, unless no more posts follow. He posts a few gut feelings on a small number of people, judging Opus, Vytron, and Moody as scummy, and Sungura and Snark town. I have asked him already for why he judges Moody as scummy. Nobody else has said this before, which is why I find it odd. Whilst I'm not sure I agree regarding Opus and Vytron, I can see where those points might come from. The town Sungura and Snark reads broadly agree with my reads of them, so I can't find any issues with those. He thinks Lawrencelot is town, an opinion I imagine will be reinforced with his recent claim. Disagreeing with the general opinion can be quite a townie thing, but it could also be seen as scummy, depending on the context. At this point, I think it is too early to say.

Overall conclusion - dimochka needs to post more content, and particularly explain his gut feelings a bit more. I don't feel as bad about him as I did on my summary read, so would rank him now as scum-leaning neutral.

Other opinions to follow.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby ConMan » Mon Nov 16, 2015 9:43 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Conman - you missed me voting for suzaku. Why?

I skimmed the thread too fast is all. Sorry!
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby SDK » Mon Nov 16, 2015 9:50 pm UTC

Snark wrote:Quick note from mobile.

Possible alignments in this game: Druids, Traitor, Jesters, Survivors. I could see any number of these third parties claiming mason, and I'm not sure whether it's worth a member of the actual mason team, if there is one, counter claiming. I think we should discuss what various scum/third parties have to gain from a mason claim before deciding whether or not to check and ask for counter claims. (It's a counter claim b/c a mason team without Lawrence implies Lawrence is not a mason, can't have two teams with a max of 3 masons). If we don't ask for counter claims, we also need to know whether we still want to lynch him. Probably not since an investigation can distinguish between third party and scum and I don't think leaving a known third party alive and ignoring them is dangerous (unless they have a scary night power which Lawrencelot doesn't).

This post (and the one following) was the reason for my vote. You don't lynch a mason claim. A mason fake-claim is suicide with up to three non-town killing roles, all roles that could be shut down by Lawrencelot's power (and therefore will want to kill the "confirmed town" even if he's not town!). The only possible way he makes this claim is as part of the werewolf pack, but then he's banking on both there being no real masons and there being no lone wolves, a very big risk. At most you should be asking for the partner to confirm. The fact that you're talking about his lynch instead pings me hard.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:16 pm UTC

Patzer:

She has been quite active, with multiple relatively short posts. Her first post after game start starts off by playing down the alien threat, before deciding that it is a major threat. As I mentioned in my briefer reads list, my feeling is that this could be an alien trying to persuade town that aliens are not so important, but without it being too obvious. She jumps on DJ for his request for ConMan to reveal his role, voting him early. Nothing particularly wrong with that at that stage of the day, when things were still very early. She goes on to agree with the suggestion to research Suzaku. Not the first, so could be considered to be following the general trend, but it does seem like a good idea, so I can't really fault it. Suggests that ConMan should also be investigated, and not doctored. Again, that statement could be read as either a scummy or townie point, pending further information. If ConMan is town (or at least not scum with patzer), it would be helpful to scum if investigations were targeted at him, as it would be fewer investigations on patzer's team. On the other hand, maybe ConMan is able to tell more about his role in private chat, and patzer is one of his team mates, and knows that an investigation somehow would fail on him, or give a false result, so encouraging an investigation would allow him to gain townie points. The "don't doctor ConMan" could also be read in the same manner.

She does go on to vote for Suzaku, although expressing reservations in agreement with Opus. This suggests less of a concern for self-preservation. On the other hand, she was quite late in comparison to others, so by that point, she may be beginning to think that she'd better join the party, or risk looking suspicious. She then votes Lawrencelot, again jumping on the suspicions others already had. I can't really fault either of these points, since I agreed that Lawrencelot looked scummy, and that we should all vote for Suzaku. Her Lawrencelot vote was also in her first post following Lawrencelot's vote on roadierich, so it's reasonable to assume that it was the first opportunity.

She goes on to disagree with Sungura re. Opus, agreeing with Vytron. In the same post, she FoSses Sungura apparently because her only detailed analysis was a faulty role analysis. I'm almost inclined to say "pot calling kettle black". Up to this point, she's done almost no original player analysis herself, at all. Almost all her opinions prior to this post were basically agreeing with someone or other.

From there, she says that we should lynch Lawrencelot because he's the only one who looks scummy.

@Patzer what happened to your FoS on Sungura at this point? Surely that FoS was because you felt she looked scummy?

Patzer goes on to justify his vote for Lawrencelot, with reasonably valid reasons, but in a slightly aggressive way, to me. Following Lawrencelot's mason claim, she goes on to suggest that masons should counter-claim. This could be an attempt to draw masons out of cover, so that she, or her faction team mates can kill them. She finally unvotes Lawrencelot after his defence of why masons should not claim. She jumps to the conclusion that Lawrencelot is a third party member, which seems a bit of a stretch, but that we should lynch him if we don't find anyone else.

Conclusion: Her first post really pinged me, as did her FoS on Sungura. She really hasn't done much in the way of original analysis - her comment on Sungura was if anything her first original analysis of the game so far, and even that was somewhat following someone else. I think Patzer is scum, possibly alien, based on the original comment and the apparent reluctance to vote Suzaku.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:46 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Snark wrote:Quick note from mobile.

Possible alignments in this game: Druids, Traitor, Jesters, Survivors. I could see any number of these third parties claiming mason, and I'm not sure whether it's worth a member of the actual mason team, if there is one, counter claiming. I think we should discuss what various scum/third parties have to gain from a mason claim before deciding whether or not to check and ask for counter claims. (It's a counter claim b/c a mason team without Lawrence implies Lawrence is not a mason, can't have two teams with a max of 3 masons). If we don't ask for counter claims, we also need to know whether we still want to lynch him. Probably not since an investigation can distinguish between third party and scum and I don't think leaving a known third party alive and ignoring them is dangerous (unless they have a scary night power which Lawrencelot doesn't).

This post (and the one following) was the reason for my vote. You don't lynch a mason claim. A mason fake-claim is suicide with up to three non-town killing roles, all roles that could be shut down by Lawrencelot's power (and therefore will want to kill the "confirmed town" even if he's not town!). The only possible way he makes this claim is as part of the werewolf pack, but then he's banking on both there being no real masons and there being no lone wolves, a very big risk.
You are completely and totally 100% wrong. So wrong it hurts. Druids might claim mason, they can do whatever they think will help them get killed in the same fashion. A traitor might claim mason, they can do whatever they can to spread wine around everything. Jesters might claim mason, using it to survive d1 to get found and and lynched later. Survivors might claim mason, they would do anything to survive a lynch. Wolves might claim mason, it's not suicide for the team if a wolfmate doesn't back him up. Aliens might claim mason, it's not suicide for the team if an alienmate doesn't back him up because they don't need to because someone like you spouts off something smart like "you don't lynch a mason claim".
SDK wrote:At most you should be asking for the partner to confirm. The fact that you're talking about his lynch instead pings me hard.
Did you read my post? Did you actually read it? Did you read the part where I said I wanted to discuss whether we should ask for counter-claims? Did you read the part where I said I was leaning toward not wanting to lynch him D1?

I'm pretty sold on SDK being non-town. No content at all, a vote without reason, then a horribly obviously wrong reason given after the fact.

If I have my way, SDK would be lynched today. If I don't, I'm transferring my votelessness to them for the rest of the game until they are dead, and I'd ask that the doc-maker not interfere with that.

I still don't really believe Lawrencelot. The only thing his claim really guarantees is that he's not non-mason town. I'd rather someone investigate him and we lynch SDK at the moment.

I'm going to try not posting again until Dr and road have posted, been replaced, or modkilled, because 5 days without content is ridiculous and they shouldn't be allowed to lurk.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:52 pm UTC

I'm running out of time, so I'm going to have to skip DJ for now, who was my weakest scum read, and look at Lawrencelot. I'll try to get back to him later on, but not today.

Lawrencelot:

His opening post is the very scummy move of blocking an unknown aligned killer from killing that night. As I and many others have already mentioned, this was an extremely odd move to make right out of the box with no discussion. This instantly suggested to me (once I'd spotted it, which I'll admit I didn't until after others had pointed it out) that he is someone who is bothered about reducing the number of kills. The Suzaku vote is slightly different, and not a direct opposite, as has already been mentioned. Whilst it makes him a valid target, it may be that he thinks that most people are going to join in with voting Suzaku, so an early jump onto him could be made in an attempt to look townie. On the other hand, it is possible that he is telling the truth when he said it seemed obvious to him to block Oscar early on. My gut tends to agree with the majority that this is not the case.

I do see where he is coming from re. DJ, but possibly he is over analysing the relevant post (says he who really found patzer's first post suspicious!). I'll consider that post in question more myself when I analyse DJ.

After a bit of prodding, he goes on to explain his reasons for blocking Oscar's kill, with some, in my opinion, rather faulty logic. I even take some issue with his opening statement that if roadierich is scum, it is clear he should be blocked. With a game this large, and with multiple scum factions, it is not the same as a regular mafia game that scum know who is town and will definitely target them - there are plenty of third party and anti-scum factions which a NK could hit, and indeed would be beneficial to town if they did so. "With high probability" that town!roadierich will hit town is actually not really true either - I reckon based on the numbers that about half of the players are non-town, so town!roadierich has a very good chance of hitting scum, even when targeting at random.

His reasons for not explaining his vote initially are valid, the way I see it, before finally conceding that he should have discussed it first. It's easy to concede that long after the initial vote... He maintains his opinion though that roadierich should have been blocked. A firm stance, but easy enough to fake once you're that committed.

His next post is a relatively brief reads list of the scummiest players from his point of view, including those under pressure, whereupon he votes patzer, mostly because of her focus on him. As has already been said, this could be viewed as a bit of OMGUS, although as I posted in my previous post I do find patzer scummy myself, but on the surface at least I think have more reasons.

He next carries on defending his Oscar vote, this time in relation to his Suzaku vote. His logic there actually seems pretty sound. I have no idea on the probabilities, and really don't fancy trying to verify the maths. In the same post, he claims mason, but requests no confirmation from his team-mates. Later on he explains why masons should not counter-claim him as well, though he is not the first to indicate this. The logic for both not requesting the confirmation and why counter-claims are a bad idea again seem fairly sound to me, given the nature of this game, as I have already mentioned in one of my posts earlier today.

Conclusion: I think Lawrencelot is pretty scummy for the obvious reason of his Oscar roleblock, and to a minor extent his OMGUS vote on patzer (at least that's what it seemed like to me a little). I'd rate him as approximately as scummy as patzer, so my FoS on him continues.

I noted previously that where two people appear approximately as scummy as each other, we should lynch the one more dangerous to town. Well, given that I rank Lawrencelot's role as least concerning to town maybe over all other roles, and given that patzer is one who we can't really check via investigation due to being a Lycanthrope I find patzer the more dangerous character, so:

Vote patzer
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 17, 2015 12:23 am UTC

I am inclined to believe Larwence, but we need an investigation. Either they are 1) telling the truth to save a town with useful knowledge or 2) dead. We likely don't have to deal with option 2 in a lynch even, with all the kills around. But wasting a lynch on them without investigating the claim seems dumb.

I am still much not a fan of SDK, their posts and odd link to Suzaku as well, seems fishy. I'm not sure what to think of the two, and the more SDK posts the more scummy they seem. But it's almost jester-like, which scares me. I could be willing to switch my vote to SDK, as if they are a jester, they don't win if lynched today, and if they are scum, we also win. But I'd also suggest SDK as a possible night kill target, to shed light on all of that mess.

@diemo - why do you say it is newbie town to be jumping all over? That makes no sense and runs with very few newbie plays I've seen. Playing the fence line, and sticking feet in both sides is a deliberate thing (which is what Opus is doing) and that is classic beginner SCUM mistake. This has been discussed at length in the past as a classic newbie SCUM mistake. Townies tend to be more confused. Not putting feet in two camps switching whenever is appropriate. There is a distinction.

There is the potential for a LOT of death this first night
werewolves - 1
lone wolves (if exist) - 2
hbC - 1
Suzaku - 1
so that's 5 possible kills first night
...that's a lot. I just wanted to put that out there because I got to thinking about it. There are so many kills, that i think chances of hitting aliens with kills are high. While we don't want them to survive until day 6 obviously, there are "at least 5" werewolfs and up to 2 lone wolfs. Not only is it in their best interest to try and hit aliens, it our best interest to keep them in check with the lynches. Because if we go after aliens for lynch and kills, the werewolfs will quickly win, especially with them potentially controlling at least three of the kills. Hell, if HBC and Suzaku are them, well, then they control all FIVE potential kills this night. That's a scary number. This is a different situation than trying to work with wolfs/mafia to get rid of a cult that continually grows. We know there are only 2-4 aliens. So right away we have MORE werewolves, with a scary amount of kill power. So I think anyone over-stressing the alien threat is scummy, because of this. They are a threat, but not to the extent we need to drop everything and only target them. No. In fact I think it is better for town to target the werewolves, and thus FORCE the wolves to deal with the aliens.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:22 am UTC

Sorry guys, still sorta busy.

I'm a bit inoperative D1 anyways, but I will get some analysis soon.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby patzer » Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:44 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Patzer what happened to your FoS on Sungura at this point? Surely that FoS was because you felt she looked scummy?


Yes. I thought Sungura's actions were a bit suspicious. But compared to Lawrencelot's actions, I wasn't at all sure about Sungura.

Sabrar wrote:Let's consider the independent factions:
- If Lawrencelot is Druid: I don't think it is good for him to deny an additional NK as it is far more probable for both Druids to get night-killed than lynched given the setup.
- If Lawrencelot is Jester: his play makes perfect sense from his point of view, however lynching Jester on D1 is I think good for Town as we will have less complications to worry about later.
- If Lawrencelot is Sibling Survivor: if he's so afraid of being lynched that he feels the need to claim then he would have a much higher chance of survival if he would tell the truth. Claiming falsely risks a counterclaim and subsequent lynch, while it may be argued that we would leave a Sibling Survivor alone as he's also interested in helping us eliminate the scum.
- If Lawrencelot is Traitor: in this case we would definitely want to lynch him.
Therefore I think that if Lawrencelot is independent then either he played poorly or it is in our best interest to lynch him.

This is an excellent point.

Lawrencelot obviously isn't actually a mason; I'd wager that he's a werewolf pretending to be a third party pretending to be a mason.

Vote: Lawrencelot
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby moody7277 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:49 am UTC

my unsure and scummy looking people from before:

Opus- couple of posts first off interested in Dr Ug's use. Some level of suspicion that seems appropriate. somewhat dubious of voting Suzaku, but does so anyway. Mistake over Snark's votelessness, which led to a vote, which led to people suspecting them. I think they're more likely than not likely town.

Suzaku- The man with the katana. Shocked by Lawr's RR vote. Taking his own counsel over use of his kill, with some input from trustworthy. He's saying the right thing, but with his power I'd prefer hard data to guessing.

frogman- Some rolespec, asks to investigate Suzaku, does so after more discussion. A little low on content other than investigating Suzaku, but he's leaning town.

Lawr- suspicious for the immediate shutting down of RR's kill. Claiming now to be part of a mason group. I concur with some other people that this claim will take care of itself with out our needing to vote him.

SDK- suspicious for not joining in the vote/unvote of Suzaku he suggested. Starts voting DJ, switches to voting Snark based off his reaction to Lawr's mason claim. That first point really bugs me, but I've already said he can't remedy it at this point. Still on my lynchable list, but I'm open to further data on him.

ConMan- suspicious for being late in expressing doubt over the vote/unvote issue, which is the weakest of the three in this category. Most people seem a bit leery twoard him due to the whole "perfectly ordinary" thing. Posts on triage (Aliens first, then wolves), Dr Ug's role. votes Lawr over the RR thing, recategorizes the roles based on my model, and spec on who wouldn't do the vote/unvote thing. Lots of general content, not much on specific people yet, but I have him leaning townie.

Next up, those who weren't involved in the Suzaku vote/unvote thing.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby moody7277 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:24 am UTC

Diemo- suspicious of Lawr, aliens top priority, Snark town, Opus newbie, pro investigate Suzaku. leaning townie with expectation of more

DJ- roles pec with particular emphasis on dangerous roles. aliens first priority, including quasi-alliance, couple of light posts, votes SDK, couple more light posts. definitely not a town read, but not sure what other he could be.

Dr Ug- no posts since signup. since he has an important role, mod action may be required

HBC-YOLOSWAG- couple of light posts, then an analysis of Opus that ends with "Yeah, this guy's scum." and a FoS and suspicion on Lawr's RR vote. neutral until he broadens his base a little.

RR- no posts since signup. again, he's got one of the possible kills so prodding is needed.

Sabrar- some role spec, "Aliens: let's hunt them! :twisted:" obviously a werewolf :P. Suspicious of Lawr based off his vote with no discussion, actually did voice disapproval on the vote/unvote issue (missed this in my first sweep). Seems very tunnelly on Lawr in succeeding posts. Leaning toward something other than town.

Van- some rolespec, afraid of giving scum factions doctoring ability, aliens most scary, some analysis of people, with a vote for Lawr. slightly townie at this point.

weiyaoli- jester spec, some statements on issues, a few FoSes, and votes jimbob for what amounts to active lurking. neutral at this point.

Vote: SDK
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby mpolo » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:04 am UTC

<written last night, POST pressed, Internet apparently down>I don't have a problem with Lawrencelot wanting to keep the rest of the masons safe. If he goes under, the rest are safe, whereas if someone confirms him, he paints a target on himself.

He could still be one of the third-party chatters, but that's probably less likely at this point.

I still don't see the two roles as that different, as for Suzaku to be useful at all, we really need to get lots of people to vote him. But I do understand where you're coming from, so I guess my suspicion is pretty much abated.

I have to go to a funeral for an acquaintance, so will have to leave this for now.</written last night…>

I don't think patzer should be first priority among werewolves, as we need him (at least temporarily) as a "baseline" for the Drug-taking Dog. I need to spend more time with the thread to see where I stand on other elements. But that's not going to happen before breakfast.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:21 am UTC

patzer wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Let's consider the independent factions:
- If Lawrencelot is Druid: I don't think it is good for him to deny an additional NK as it is far more probable for both Druids to get night-killed than lynched given the setup.
- If Lawrencelot is Jester: his play makes perfect sense from his point of view, however lynching Jester on D1 is I think good for Town as we will have less complications to worry about later.
- If Lawrencelot is Sibling Survivor: if he's so afraid of being lynched that he feels the need to claim then he would have a much higher chance of survival if he would tell the truth. Claiming falsely risks a counterclaim and subsequent lynch, while it may be argued that we would leave a Sibling Survivor alone as he's also interested in helping us eliminate the scum.
- If Lawrencelot is Traitor: in this case we would definitely want to lynch him.
Therefore I think that if Lawrencelot is independent then either he played poorly or it is in our best interest to lynch him.

This is an excellent point.

Lawrencelot obviously isn't actually a mason; I'd wager that he's a werewolf pretending to be a third party pretending to be a mason.

Vote: Lawrencelot


Im confused here, could you clarify? Most of the roles Saber put forth are not exactly detrimental to town, firstly, by their own analysis.

And how do you know lawrence isnt a mason, are you counter claiming? He may well be what he says he is but you say obviously not. I want to know why you think it Is obvious.

From what i can see, you are quoting somekne elses analysis that basically concludes likely third party but most of which is not bad per se for the town (unlike werewolf or alien, which is obiously bad) and then adding "they cant be what they claimed" and then tossing a vote. That...looks pretty fishy to me.

Please explain how you know that he is not a mason, and why he is a better lynch than a werewolf or alien.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:23 am UTC

Ebwop: i guess you say werewolf pretendjng to be third party pretending to be mason - which is even weirder, tbh.

I mean for clarification, you agree wjth Saber that he is third party but he isnt just third party he is oretending to be third party while claiming mason?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby patzer » Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:45 am UTC

Sungura wrote:
And how do you know lawrence isnt a mason, are you counter claiming? He may well be what he says he is but you say obviously not. I want to know why you think it Is obvious.

Please explain how you know that he is not a mason, and why he is a better lynch than a werewolf or alien.


Oh, sorry. Maybe it isn't as obvious as I thought. Lawrencelot said that

Lawrencelot wrote:Because people are still voting for me after I've explained myself, I will claim. I am a mason. I will not reveal my buddy/buddies, and asked them not to confirm me. In case I'm lying, the real mason(s) should not reveal themselves. This makes this claim worthless basically, but later on in the game with more investigations and nightkills the claim will become more valuable, because it would be very hard to keep up with a lie like this for long. So I hope you all give me a chance and let me use my power to stop the werewolf threat, and let me help in catching scum by coordinating with my buddy/buddies.

None of the players who've voted me by now are mason, but I can't promise that no mason will vote for me in the future.


(Emphasis added)

If Lawrence was an actual mason, then why would he have written that hypothetical on what to do if he was lying?

I can't think of a single reason that he'd do so. It seems like, with the green sentence, Lawrencelot is trying to hint that he's third-party.

Sabrar convincingly argues why it isn't likely that Lawrence is a third party.

That's why I think he's probably werewolf/alien pretending to be third party pretending to be mason.

Sorry if I wasn't clear about this.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Lawrencelot » Tue Nov 17, 2015 10:55 am UTC

Sure, we can all just decide not to bother to speak objectively and pretend everyone knows our alignment... I said something about the case I'm lying, because for most of you it's not certain whether I speak the truth. I'm not Vytron! (in some other games, Vytron always said multiple times that he's town and wrote everything from the assumption that he's town and that everyone knew that, so it's funny I'm being suspected of doing the opposite)
I said that, in case I'm lying, the real masons shouldn't claim, to prevent the discussion that emerged anyway (hm, if Lawrencelot is lying, should real masons claim or not?). The discussion does not help because the answer is obvious, and everyone who thought about any potential real masons counterclaiming is scummy. Same for wanting my mason buddy/buddies to claim. So I'll help you all out:

patzer wrote:Question for Lawrencelot: why do you say that if you're lying, the masons shouldn't claim? Surely it would be a good idea for them to claim, because then we'd know you are lying, and could lynch you.
This seems quite odd.

Scummy

Snark wrote:I could see any number of these third parties claiming mason, and I'm not sure whether it's worth a member of the actual mason team, if there is one, counter claiming. I think we should discuss what various scum/third parties have to gain from a mason claim before deciding whether or not to check and ask for counter claims. (It's a counter claim b/c a mason team without Lawrence implies Lawrence is not a mason, can't have two teams with a max of 3 masons). If we don't ask for counter claims, we also need to know whether we still want to lynch him. Probably not since an investigation can distinguish between third party and scum and I don't think leaving a known third party alive and ignoring them is dangerous (unless they have a scary night power which Lawrencelot doesn't).

Scummy

Snark wrote:Initial feeling is that it's a lie since he basically told real Mason's not to counter claim him. Feels like he knows that if there's a real mason team, it doesn't include him.

Scummy

Sabrar wrote:Claiming Mason while warning other Masons not to confirm/deny seems to me the same as claiming Vanilla Townie, which is basically the baseline for everybody so it's really not telling anything. Furthermore it looks even more scummy to me because of this specific warning. My current thought is that if he's lying, then 1 Mason who so far is considered townie by several people independently should counterclaim. This is based on the idea that trading 1-for-1 with scum is advantageous to us. Please let me know if there is a fault in my reasoning.

Scummy

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:In a typical game, I'd agree with you, but in this sort of game, with so many factions, it is within the realms of possibility that town are actually in the minority, so a one-to-one swap isn't necessarily a good idea. Futhermore, even if town aren't in the minority, if Lawrencelot is third party, lynching him is a waste, so a counter-claim won't even guarantee a scum death, but will almost certainly guarantee a town death.

Townie

SDK wrote:This post (and the one following) was the reason for my vote. You don't lynch a mason claim. A mason fake-claim is suicide with up to three non-town killing roles, all roles that could be shut down by Lawrencelot's power (and therefore will want to kill the "confirmed town" even if he's not town!). The only possible way he makes this claim is as part of the werewolf pack, but then he's banking on both there being no real masons and there being no lone wolves, a very big risk. At most you should be asking for the partner to confirm. The fact that you're talking about his lynch instead pings me hard.

Townie because it doesn't say anything about counterclaiming. But scummy because I think this is a weird post. I didn't expect anyone to believe my claim, but as I said in the post where I claimed, the claim should be neutral.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:In the same post, he claims mason, but requests no confirmation from his team-mates. Later on he explains why masons should not counter-claim him as well, though he is not the first to indicate this. The logic for both not requesting the confirmation and why counter-claims are a bad idea again seem fairly sound to me, given the nature of this game, as I have already mentioned in one of my posts earlier today.

Townie

Sungura wrote:I am inclined to believe Larwence, but we need an investigation. Either they are 1) telling the truth to save a town with useful knowledge or 2) dead. We likely don't have to deal with option 2 in a lynch even, with all the kills around. But wasting a lynch on them without investigating the claim seems dumb.

Townie because it doesn't say anything about counterclaiming. Not as weird as SDK's post, but again I did not expect anyone to believe me. Logic is sound, unlike SDK's.

patzer wrote:Lawrencelot obviously isn't actually a mason; I'd wager that he's a werewolf pretending to be a third party pretending to be a mason.

Scu.... wait what?

moody7277 wrote:Lawr- suspicious for the immediate shutting down of RR's kill. Claiming now to be part of a mason group. I concur with some other people that this claim will take care of itself with out our needing to vote him.

Townie

mpolo wrote:<written last night, POST pressed, Internet apparently down>I don't have a problem with Lawrencelot wanting to keep the rest of the masons safe. If he goes under, the rest are safe, whereas if someone confirms him, he paints a target on himself.

Townie

Sungura wrote:And how do you know lawrence isnt a mason, are you counter claiming? He may well be what he says he is but you say obviously not. I want to know why you think it Is obvious.

Scummy

If Lawrence was an actual mason, then why would he have written that hypothetical on what to do if he was lying?
I can't think of a single reason that he'd do so.

Scummy

And just in case someone will tell me that I'm just finding people scummy who do not believe me and that I find people townie if they do believe me: that's not the case at all, just read. Many people still think I'm scummy, but don't think about counterclaims, and either just don't believe me and want to lynch me or they think that I will be killed anyway.

And just in case this is actually meaningful to some people: I am not third-party.

Sabrar wrote:@Lawrencelot: did it take long for you to calculate the expected reward of your scenario or did you do it instinctly? The reason I ask is that if you're very used to these kind of probability calculations (which you very well might be) than I could buy your reasoning of 'it was obvious for me, didn't think to wait'. However if you did it meticulously by hand then it is less believable for me that your first thought would be to sit down and calculate the odds before reading what others had to say.

I did not do any calculations in my first post, I just used the logic that I tried to illustrate in the post where I did show the calculations. So yeah, I did it instinctly: I knew from Oscar's point of view (if town) a kill would be rewarding, but if I weigh the reward with the probability of Oscar being town it's actually detrimental for town if he kills. I did not use any actual numbers.


Diemo wrote:Firstly, I don't know if I believe Lawrencelot's mason claim. Also, Lawrencelot claims that we can direct Suzaku's NK but not RR's NK? Why can we direct one and not the other? This is fishy but at the moment I don't think that he is the best lynch. I wouldn't mind him getting killed at night though.

We can limit Suzaku's potential kill targets. I'm not talking about directing them with a vote for example.

Wow quotes make a post long, now I remember why I was using spoilers

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Lawrencelot » Tue Nov 17, 2015 11:00 am UTC

Oh and with all these people focusing on the most unimportant things I should probably do this too: I am not a werewolf, alien, or any other non-town role. I am a town mason.

Now please, just lynch me if you don't believe me, or move on to the next scummiest player but no more useless discussion about druids and jesters and whether a non-existing mason not aligned with Lawrencelot should counterclaim or not.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:10 pm UTC

Okay, here's my promised analysis of Opus:

Has the least useful ability in the game (with the possible exception of my own, which, while it would be great for a scum player, as a townie just means doctors can't protect me and investigators can't confirm I'm town).
In favor of Darryl hunting aliens (so probably not an alien).
Doesn't like the idea of Heather creating doctors (neutral - a werewolf wouldn't want town doctors, and a lone wolf wouldn't want any doctors, but a townie wouldn't want werewolf/alien doctors).
Doesn't like the idea of turning Suzaku into a vig (again, neutral. Also, Opus is probably not on a scum team with Van or Suzaku).
Mentions possibility of Darryl targeting both Luna and Xela, says it's a bad idea and he should just target Xela and go alien hunting (suspicious - this seems more like something a werewolf or lone wolf would say than a townie).
Votes for Suzaku, says giving Suzaku a handful of targets is the worst option, so everyone should vote for Suzaku (neutral).

I don't see anything obviously scummy, and certainly nothing that would hint at Opus being alien or third party. But I think there is still a decent chance that he's werewolf or lone wolf (and if he's werewolf, Van and Suzaku are not).

FoS Opus

Since Dr Ug still hasn't posted, I'm leaving my vote where it is for now.

Actually, I just thought of something:

Do werewolves and lone wolves appear the same to Darryl's investigations?

I've been assuming that they do, but now that I think of it that might be a bad assumption.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:24 pm UTC

Bleh, so jet lagged. I have been trying to keep up with things, but there are some walls of text to go through that my brain cannot process at the moment. I'll just throw out some general thoughts:

- On Lawrence: Totally not surprised by that claim at all. It's really the only logical direction that he could have gone to keep himself alive. A normal town claim would have probably sealed the deal for his lynch, as would claiming any of the independent roles. And there's no way anyone is claiming to be an anti-town role. I think if he's lying that the real masons have done the town a huge favor by not rushing into a counterclaim mess. It's bad enough that we have a mason claim on day 1. Either we have a liar trying to expose masons or we have a mason who screwed up so badly that he needs to expose himself.

- On Patzer: Whatever lawrence is, patzer is the opposite. That's my impression from recent exchanges. They are both raising red flags in what they are saying/doing but it's my instinct that tells me that one needs to be trusted and the other needs to be lynched. Which one falls into which category, I'm not sure of yet.

-On Opus: Experience tells me that Sungura is an excellent scum hunter. And how she's locked onto Opus is probably the most damning thing that has happened so far in this game. I think he's done less obvious and incriminating things than either lawrence or patzer, but in some ways that makes him a much better choice to lynch. In general scum are not going to be making the huge, obvious mistakes unless they really really fuck up. I think mpolo has an interesting idea in allowing opus to live so Dr Ug can do a baseline comparison, but do we even know if Dr Ug will be active enough to do that? I guess, I would want to wait on the results of the mod prodding before going further on that path.

-Conclusions: Those are my top three lynch candidates. I guess once we hear back on Dr Ug's status I'll have a better idea of what I'd want to do with my vote. Hopefully we can at least get a replacement. If so, then I think clearing up some of the noise that Patzer and Lawrence have been causing would be the best course of action and will leave us with the most information going into tomorrow. Otherwise, without the comparison power I think we should take something that has better odds than the coin flip that I see as lawrence vs patzer and go with Opus.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:43 pm UTC

patzer seems to be gathering suspicion, so I might as well analyze her too.

Denies that aliens are the biggest threat at the moment (I agree - we've got six days to get rid of them, and their mind control doesn't seem particularly dangerous).
Thinks a cop should target Perry rather than turning him into a doctor.
Agrees with Opus that giving Suzaku only a handful of targets is bad, votes Suzaku.
Votes Lawrencelot for voting Oscar without discussion first.
FoS's Sungura for voting Opus and for doing detailed analysis on the role descriptions but not the players themselves.
Says Lawrencelot is the only player who looked scummy to her.
Uncertain whether to believe Lawrencelot's mason claim.
Thinks Lawrencelot is third party, says we should lynch him anyway if we don't get strong scum leads: better to lynch a third party than a townie (technically true, but I think it's better to aim for scum and risk hitting a townie than to lynch someone we believe to be third party, unless the third party in question is a traitor. This is the first thing patzer has said that looks scummy to me). Unvotes Lawrencelot anyway.
Thinks Sungura is slightly suspicious but Lawrencelot very suspicious, says Lawrencelot is a werewolf pretending to be a third party pretending to be a mason (this is such a strange claim that I don't even know whether to call it scummy or not).

So for now, I'm going to say Opus and patzer are both slightly scummy (Opus scummier than patzer), Lawrencelot is slightly townie, and no one else has done anything obviously scummy. Again, if there are any particular people anyone wants me to analyze, just let me know.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby RoadieRich » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:51 pm UTC

Ok so a lot has happened.

Two things stick out to me:

1. Lawrencelot votes to block my kill, without even mentioning his reasons. This immediately pinged me as scummy. He then claims that he innately did the maths to work out it was in town's favor to do so. However, this is a mafia game, it is based on information, not random chance, which was not accounted for.

Then there is the claim, that doesn't really make sense to me: it feels too much like an "oh shit" reaction: it feels to me like posts since then have had a note of desperation or panic to them.

2. Sungura's posts have seemed off-kilter from her normal style. She usually seems extremely townie, even as scum, but there's something I can't put my finger on right now that seems off.

I'm also happy to make myself a target for Suzaku

Vote: Suzaku

Unvote

Vote: Lawrencelot

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby SDK » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:53 pm UTC

I hate replacing out so much but this game has become too much for me to handle and my next few weeks are going to be equally busy. Please don't hold my lack of content against my replacement.

Misnomber, please replace me. I'm sorry. I wish I could have played this game.

PS: Snark might not be scum, Lawrencelot might be lying (his attitude about his own claim is way off base), but you don't lynch a claimed mason without first asking for confirmation from their partner. As long as you don't do that, I'll be happy.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:17 pm UTC

I couldnt sleep last night and got to thinking more about game mechanics

We dont know what side got which roles. The scum could be controlling most of the investigative roles and if so, then they can fuck with us however they want to. Id like to propose that as a stratagy at least for the start of the game that investigative roles target the same player. This would force any investigations by scum to not lie, and if people get different results over time allow us to determine who is lying and who is not. Thoughts?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sungura » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:19 pm UTC

modnomer: can we get a vote count?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby moody7277 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:26 pm UTC

Sungura wrote:I couldnt sleep last night and got to thinking more about game mechanics

We dont know what side got which roles. The scum could be controlling most of the investigative roles and if so, then they can fuck with us however they want to. Id like to propose that as a stratagy at least for the start of the game that investigative roles target the same player. This would force any investigations by scum to not lie, and if people get different results over time allow us to determine who is lying and who is not. Thoughts?


That's more or less what happened in the first one of these games I was in, and it ended up as a scum romp. Might be a little different as wolves are just as interested in getting aliens as town is. I'm also going to eb limited in my investigation choices to whoever is dead, so... :?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:52 pm UTC

It just occurred to me: Opus's ability isn't really beneficial to town, even if Opus happens to be town, since it keeps us from getting any information from lynching him. So why don't we just keep piling votes on him until he's forced to use it? That way we can lynch him tomorrow (or any future day) if we want. The only downside is we wouldn't be able to investigate him tonight, but we wouldn't be able to investigate him tonight and lynch him tomorrow anyway since he could just use his ability to avoid the lynch, so I'm not seeing any disadvantage. Unless we wanted to investigate him and turn him into a doctor or nurse tonight, in which case we could still lynch him tomorrow if the investigation suggests he's scum, but I'm not sure that we can trust Van or that Van should be publicly revealing their targets.

Unvote

Vote: Opus

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Misnomer » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:17 pm UTC

SDK has requested a replacement and Dr Ug has not responded to his modprod. Neither signed-up replacement is available yet. It's not an ideal situation, but rather than opting for immediate modkill I'm going to tide over their roles in a dormant state until D2. They remain in the game, lack of activity notwithstanding, and any actions they may have submitted for the night will still be carried out.

Depending on what happens tonight, it may well be that we will have potential zombie!replacements from dead players to take over these roles early in Day 2. If no such solution is forthcoming however, I give advance notice that the two players will be modkilled early in day 2.


Votals etc. to follow.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Misnomer » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:22 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:Do werewolves and lone wolves appear the same to Darryl's investigations?

No, Lone Wolf is a separate alignment, and this would be reflected in Darryl's investigation.

Votals:

SDK (2): Djehutynakht, moody7277
ConMan (1): dimochka
Snark (1): SDK
Lawrencelot (4): ConMan, Van, patzer, roadierich
Opus_723 (3): Sungura, znirk, SirGabriel
jimbobmacdoodle (1): weiyaoli
Patzer (2): Lawrencelot, jimbobmacdoodle

Not voting (11): cruicalityfactor, Dr Ug, Sabrar, YOLOSWAG, Faubiguy, mpolo, Suzaku, Frogman, Opus_723, Diemo, Vytron

Game Status:
Frogman has put forward a research proposal to investigate Suzaku. Tenure committee members should cast their vote via PM before day end.
Snark is currently voteless.
6 Tenure Committee members are alive.
13 votes required to majority lynch.



Bong... bong... bong... bong...

As the clock tower above the town hall mournfully rang out the hour, the townsfolk suddenly looked around and realised how late it had got. Darkness would be falling soon - and it wouldn't do at all to still be lynching then.


A soft deadline has been set for 6pm GMT, Friday 20 November. As per the rules, you may continue posting after this deadline has passed, however after that point I may call night at any time. Please note that a majority lynch vote always ends the day immediately.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:53 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:SDK has requested a replacement and Dr Ug has not responded to his modprod.
[b]Roadierich?

3 days is less time than I expected to have. People better have content before day end. This includes votes.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Snark » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:53 pm UTC

EBWOP

Misnomer:
Misnomer wrote:SDK has requested a replacement and Dr Ug has not responded to his modprod.
Roadierich?

Town:
3 days is less time than I expected to have. People better have content before day end. This includes votes.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Diemo » Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:09 pm UTC

Ok, so thoughts:

Firstly, Roadie did respond, even if he didn't say much.

Secondly, I don't like that we are talking about lynching Lawrencelot. I think that it is probably better to have two confirmed townies out themselves by claiming than it is to mislynch a townie. That said, Law has not been very consistent. It is kinda doubtful they are telling the truth, but I think that they should be night killed rather than lynched.
Law wrote:Oh and with all these people focusing on the most unimportant things I should probably do this too: I am not a werewolf, alien, or any other non-town role. I am a town mason.
Why bother? Everyone knows that is what your claim is.

Sungara wrote:@diemo - why do you say it is newbie town to be jumping all over? That makes no sense and runs with very few newbie plays I've seen. Playing the fence line, and sticking feet in both sides is a deliberate thing (which is what Opus is doing) and that is classic beginner SCUM mistake. This has been discussed at length in the past as a classic newbie SCUM mistake. Townies tend to be more confused. Not putting feet in two camps switching whenever is appropriate. There is a distinction.


Hmm, ok. I found that when I played as newbie town that my play was quite like Opus' is at the moment. But I will need to take a closer look before I judge.

SDK: I was pretty sure that he was a jester before he replaced out. It is the route that I would have taken if I was a jester - short posts which don't say much. That said, the stuff he has said has been right from my point of view. Which brings me to

Snark: Why Snark? I get that you are pretty convinced of your arguments, but in this case you are wrong. Claiming town mason with this many killing roles is pretty much a death sentence. IGMEOY!

Sungara talking about how the aliens are not a threat pinged me a little. Not too much though - as she says it depends on how many kills are in the hands of town.

If our investigative peeps are scum then we can lynch them once they give a fake result.

Vote: DJ for activ e lurking. More later.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Sabrar » Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:15 pm UTC

Unofficial post count disregarding EBWOP-s (so we know who to prod):

jimbobmacdoodle 16
Sabrar 16
patzer 13
Sungura 13
Lawrencelot 12
SirGabriel 12
Snark 12
Znirk 11
Djehutynakht 9
Vytron 9
ConMan 8
crucialityfactor 8
Opus_723 8
faubiguy 6
moody7277 6
mpolo 6
SDK 6
frogman 5
Van 5
#HBC|YOLOSWAG 4
dimochka 4
Suzaku 4
weiyaoli 3
Diemo 3
RoadieRich 1

All this week I'm at a workshop during the day and will be only available in the evenings (I'm GMT+1). This also means that I will possibly not be around during the deadline. I will definitely vote before that and aim to have a look at the forums on my phone just before the deadline to see if it needs to be changed.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby mpolo » Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:17 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:It just occurred to me: Opus's ability isn't really beneficial to town, even if Opus happens to be town, since it keeps us from getting any information from lynching him. So why don't we just keep piling votes on him until he's forced to use it? That way we can lynch him tomorrow (or any future day) if we want. The only downside is we wouldn't be able to investigate him tonight, but we wouldn't be able to investigate him tonight and lynch him tomorrow anyway since he could just use his ability to avoid the lynch, so I'm not seeing any disadvantage.


Disadvantage is how quickly we can get the necessary votes. I could see doing this only if we have a new lynch target in the wings.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Van » Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:34 pm UTC

:arrow: :arrow: Unvote
I'm following the thread as best I can. Not 100% sure I buy Lawrencelot's claim, but it warrants an unvote.

Friendly reminder that I am in crazybusytime as previously mentioned. I'm going to shoot for a useful post tonight, but it's literally coming out of my sleep time.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby Vytron » Tue Nov 17, 2015 9:14 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:Sure, we can all just decide not to bother to speak objectively and pretend everyone knows our alignment... I said something about the case I'm lying, because for most of you it's not certain whether I speak the truth. I'm not Vytron! (in some other games, Vytron always said multiple times that he's town and wrote everything from the assumption that he's town and that everyone knew that, so it's funny I'm being suspected of doing the opposite)


Well, the line "In case I'm lying, the real mason(s) should not reveal themselves" is exactly the stuff I tend to post! I'm still not sure if this is beer (Lawrencelot could be town, but not Mason, or something) or you're scum claiming Mason.

It really sounds like you have to tell the Masons in public to not claim, because you never got to communicate with them in private, because you're lying, and the whole list of "scummy/townie" people you posted seems desperate, because counter-claimed Masons are likely to be protected, they wouldn't be a priority to be killed.

Vote: Lawrencelot

I believe that a Mason should confirm that Lawrencelot is in their group, if it's true, to save a D1 mislynch, and get two confirmed townies, because after all their deaths aren't guaranteed at night (there's also the possibility of some Lawrencelot's scumbuddy "confirms it", and several nights pass without either dying, which could lead us to "mislynch" them, so it's not obvious a self-confirmed Mason paints themselves a target).

I still don't see the case on patzer, and if she flips town and Lawrcence (and Opus?) flip werewolf/alien I'd see it as an attempt to build an alternative train.

FoS: jimbobmacdoodle

As he built several cases on people he considered scummy, and ended voting patzer because it'd be really dangerous if scum. Since roles were randomized I disagree with this approach, and ask him:

@Jim: If all the players you suspected were vanilla powered, who would you vote for?

I believe the person in the answer is who Jim should be voting for.

- On SDK Vs. Snark -

SDK does indeed look pretty bad. But he doesn't look Werewolfie/Alienie, as with that kind of scum role SDK never plays like this. I don't know if it's a double bluff, though.

Sungura wrote:We dont know what side got which roles. The scum could be controlling most of the investigative roles and if so, then they can fuck with us however they want to. Id like to propose that as a stratagy at least for the start of the game that investigative roles target the same player. This would force any investigations by scum to not lie, and if people get different results over time allow us to determine who is lying and who is not. Thoughts?


No.

The thing is the cops can play with us, but after someone flips of a different alignment than what they said, we got them.

With several scum factions it's actually in the interest of the werewolves to try to discover who are the aliens, and the aliens to0 try to discover who are the werewolves, and so on, so the investigative roles are actually more trusty than it's apparent, and just because an alien tells you they got a werewolf result on someone doesn't make it false, as it's in their interest to get the wolves lynched instead of them.

We actually want the investigative roles to be spread out.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Nov 17, 2015 9:34 pm UTC

As promised, my more in depth analysis of DJ.

Djehutynakht:

He is one of the first posters, and immediately brings up the idea that aliens are the priority, matching my opinion that I had when first reading the alignments, and also SDK's who got his post in just before his (probably was being written simultaneously. He says that we also need to keep the werewolves in check, which is a true statement. Others have said that it felt artificial to them. It does strike me as a bit of an afterthought as well, along the lines of "better make sure I mention werewolves so that I don't look like a werewolf for not mentioning them at all". His next sentence encourages werewolves to focus on aliens as well. Taken at face value, this could be town encouraging werewolves to help against a perceived greater threat. It doesn't sound quite so much of an afterthought as the previous sentence did, which makes me wonder whether DJ might be a Lone Wolf, who has to play the long game, as I doubt that they can win before the invasion. He concludes this first post with a list of people he is concerned about, because of their role. This is a bit of a null tell in my opinion, since it is easy for a scum player to make the same list, which is fairly obvious.

His second post is pretty much a carbon copy of his first, in response to a an answer to his alien query. The same points I made about his first post apply just as much to his second one. It seems like he's trying almost too hard to encourage werewolves to join him. This actually seems to me to be very non-townie. I doubt DJ's an alien, but I am definitely feeling wolf vibes off of him (lone or otherwise).

I don't agree with patzer's idea that DJ's attempt to get ConMan to claim was a trap, as a player with that sort of role will clearly know not to claim! I'm much more inclined to believe that it was an honest mistake on DJ's part here. He acknowledges his error and instead suggests that an investigation might be a good idea, but suggests they are more valuable elsewhere, without saying where. This could be a scum move trying to push investigations away from his team mate, but it could also be a townie move, as I broadly agree with the statement. He then votes SDK for SDK's lack of reasoning for his vote. That move seemed like a fairly typical SDK vote to me, so I'm surprised that DJ rose to the bait there. SDK never responds to his request for an explanation and DJ never retracts his vote, though he also never follows up the query. Leaving a vote on without following up after a lack of response could be seen as a bit suspicious, as it allows them to say later on that they voted for someone early.

His only remaining piece of content so far was a complaint at Lawrencelot for singling him out over the alien as a priority issue. The post doesn't sound overly defensive, so I'm happy with his complaint at that point.

Conclusion: DJ doesn't really have much useful content at all. There's pretty much no player analysis from him, which is concerning by this stage in the day. His early posts ping me a little, although I don't think it's enough at this stage for me to really feel that he's scum. Still, definitely scum-leaning neutral for the time being.

As others seem to be finding Opus rather suspicious, I will now go and analyse his content.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Nov 17, 2015 9:44 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:FoS: jimbobmacdoodle

As he built several cases on people he considered scummy, and ended voting patzer because it'd be really dangerous if scum. Since roles were randomized I disagree with this approach, and ask him:

@Jim: If all the players you suspected were vanilla powered, who would you vote for?

I believe the person in the answer is who Jim should be voting for.

I think you misinterpreted my conclusion regarding my vote and character thoughts. In particular, my four scummy players were people I found scummy, and were independent of their characters. Indeed, pretty much all of my analysis is from that point of view. It was only when it came down to choosing between two people who I find very suspicious that I considered the characters. As I implied at the end of my first three deeper analyses, I suspect Lawrencelot and patzer roughly the same amount. I chose to vote patzer because they are more dangerous to town if scum. If I'd found Lawrencelot significantly more scummy than patzer, then I'd have voted him, regardless of his role. So, in response to your question, it would be a bit of a coin toss between Lawrencelot and patzer, as to who I would vote for. If forced to pick, I'd probably still pick patzer.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Nov 17, 2015 10:33 pm UTC

Opus_723:

I initially viewed Opus as more newbie than scummy, but I think it's a good idea to re-evaluate, given the suspicion levels on him.

He starts out with agreement on the use of Xela as a baseline for Darryl investigations. He then goes on to voice concern regarding Heather(Van), because of the risk of lots of protective powers for scum. It seems like a genuine opinion, and I don't find this scummy at all. He moves on to voicing his concern re. voting Suzaku. This appears to be in response to SDK, and could well be an attempt to get discussion going on the topic, which would be a fairly townie thing to do. He suggests investigating Suzaku first, which again seems reasonably sane to me. His next post talks more about how to use Darryl's power, and also how to mitigate him being a werewolf. Focusing on how to mitigate scum!Darryl seems like a reasonably townie thing to do again, although surely the best thing would simply be to investigate him somehow before worrying too much about it?

In response to Vytron and following several votes on Suzaku, he reiterates his belief that Suzaku should have been investigated first before turning him into a vig, with the concern that we are simply handing scum an extra kill. Opus seems to accept the idea of treating the Suzaku kill as a second lynch as a possibility, but would much rather they be investigated. At this point he votes Suzaku. Others have said that this is a bit suspicious. I'm not sure I agree, especially for a weaker character such as Opus, where there isn't the risk that he'll be killed because he has a powerful role. Instead, to me it seems a case of accepting that the horse has bolted so to speak, and to accept the idea fully, rather than leaving a partial vig. He concludes that post with a vote on Snark for trying to influence the kill choice without making himself eligible, only to retract the vote immediately after, having realised that Snark can't vote.

Opus's next few votes are all defending his position of opposing the vote for Suzaku idea, but then voting for him. I don't have a problem with this defence. Looking at only his posts in succession, he is standing by his point that he didn't like the original idea of voting for Suzaku, but that we should do so now, because others had. I don't see what Sungura finds as wishy-washy overall. I do find Opus's thoughts on underline voting for Suzaku a bit odd, but I can't really put my finger on why. He does seem to suggest that it is both a bad and a good idea, which seems a little contradictory. To be honest, I don't think I agree with constraining Suzaku in such a way anyway. If I were in his shoes, I'd consider what others were saying, but would make my own decision. For example, lover!Suzaku would never kill his partner, regardless of how many people wanted him to.

If I ignored his most recent post, I think I'd classify him as neutral, due to his lack of uesful analysis on anyone, but also due to me not seeing anything particularly scummy. However, in his most recent post, one thing really stood out to me on this reread:
Opus_723 wrote:I want to move on to hunting aliens
He doesn't mention werewolves at all, and whilst I agree that aliens should be a priority in my mind, this is more useful for investigations at this stage. Until N1 falls, all we have got is behavioural analysis, and if we can pick out scum, regardless of what kind of scum, good. I think this might be a werewolf!Opus slip.

FoS Opus

Conclusion: As I mentioned, if it weren't for his last post, I wonder have any particular problems with Opus. However, the bit I pointed out in the most recent post pinged me really hard. Also, I have not seen a single bit of player analysis, apart from a quickly retracted opinion on Snark, so overall I view him as neutral-leaning scum (i.e. worse than Dimochka or DJ).
@Opus_723: Who are your top three scum players currently, in order, and why? Which faction do you think they are on, and again why?

I believe patzer and Lawrencelot are more likely than Opus to be scum, but in this sort of game, it's certainly possible that all three are.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D1: A is for Anarchy

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:03 am UTC

FOS: weiyaoli

For his vote. I don't believe an innocent could read the thread and find jimbobmacdoodle as the slot most deserving of a vote. Feigned scumhunting.

I'd actually lynch him after Opus, that post really pinged me.

I'll be back later but I'm gonna call for an investigative to take a look at Lawrence. I have NO idea what to make of his mason claim but analyzing players' reactions to it with information about his alignment would prove fruitful.


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