2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - Game Over

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Snark
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Snark » Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:04 pm UTC

Team Emerald
mpolo
emlightened
Snark

Infighting here. emlightened doesn't post a lot then mpolo votes for them til they do. mpolo votes Madge from team Lemon after saying that he agreed with her about moody and Misnomer, super odd there.

Team Lemon
Madge
SirGabriel
Misnomer

Very odd dynamics here. Madge defended Misnomer, basically FoSed freeze for attacking Misnomer, then voted Misnomer for much the same reasons as everyone else. Misnomer's naughty nice list is more content than most people D1. SirGabe seems low on signal to noise ratio. Hasn't posted recently, almost active lurking.

Team Grape
Sabrar
Vytron-Djehutynakht
Freezeblade
patzer-Lawrencelot

Should change this group to The Replacements or The Expendables. freeze is very much active lurking. Dj replaced in and has yet to post. Lawrencelot is at least contributing, but asked me an empty question I answered in my first post about the groups - to help me organize and to encourage conflict and talking. sabrar has a lot of content, but I've seen nervous scum be overactive to try to steer every single conversation (I used to play like this when I had more free time, moreso as scum but sometimes as town too).

Team Pumpkin
crucialityfactor
moody7277
jimbobmacdoodle
Minestrone

cruciality doesn't have a ton of content, moody seems fine - unsure why the votes, jimbob is neutral, Minestrone is quiet. I'd love for this group to get more animated.

Rating each team on Likability, Lynchability, and Style:
Pumpkin
Grape
Emerald
Lemon

Ratings same as before.

Vote going to Madge for her inconsistency. I don't particularly care if lynch gets pushed to Misnomer or moody instead. Any last minute vote swings give us data regardless of alignment of lynchee and none of my reads are strong enough that I'm going to defend someone.

Unvote
Vote: Madge


I second or third the extension request given that Dj hasn't posted at all.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:09 pm UTC

Snark wrote:SirGabe seems low on signal to noise ratio. Hasn't posted recently, almost active lurking.

As I said, nothing stuck out as scummy so far, and Smalltown is pretty tense at the moment but hopefully will be over by Wednesday. I'll try to contribute more starting D2.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:10 pm UTC

I was really hoping to do some analysis this evening, not realising that it's after the deadline. :roll:

It seems to be misnomer vs moody. I'll vote on after a quick read-through of their posts so far.

@Ninja-Snark: I don't particularly get why you've clumped us into teams. Is it to help your own thought process, or something else?

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Suzaku » Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:10 pm UTC

Given the number of people who haven't submitted a night action, and the number of requests for an extension, I will grant one.

Deadline extended 22 hours until 12/22 22:00 JST (13:00 UTC)

I would prefer to make it 12 hours, but I don't think I'll be able to process night on my lunch break.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Snark » Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:59 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:@Ninja-Snark: I don't particularly get why you've clumped us into teams. Is it to help your own thought process, or something else?
Answered that already. In my last post.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Mon Dec 21, 2015 4:59 pm UTC

@Snark: No, you didn't, but you did in the first of those posts state that it was "for use in compartmentalization of remembering everyone."

(Spoiler contains all of Snark's posts from that point onwards.)
Spoiler:
Snark wrote:I'd also guess that the majority of roles are nonstandard, if the one Secret Santa I modded is any indication.

Are emlightened and Minestrone new to everyone or just new to me?

HPMPOR wrote:There was a legendary episode in social psychology called the Robbers Cave experiment. It had been set up in the bewildered aftermath of World War II, with the intent of investigating the causes and remedies of conflicts between groups. The scientists had set up a summer camp for 22 boys from 22 different schools, selecting them to all be from stable middle-class families. The first phase of the experiment had been intended to investigate what it took to start a conflict between groups. The 22 boys had been divided into two groups of 11 -- and this had been quite sufficient.


For use in compartmentalization of remembering everyone, I will split everyone into 2 groups of 3 and 2 groups of 4 randomly. Feel free to use my groups or ignore them.

Team Emerald
mpolo
emlightened
Snark

Not feeling great about the group I've been lumped in with. I don't know emlightened and they had no substance with their random vote. mpolo, I thought you were a teacher? Independently distributed probabilities are just that: independent. While everyone approaches an average as N goes to infinity, no knowledge of future alignments can be gleaned from past alignments. FOS: Team Emerald.

Team Lemon
Madge
SirGabriel
Misnomer

Madge and Misnomer alone would make a very competent team. SirGabriel I know less about. He appears now to be the sheep among wolf, where Misnomer is the overactive wolf trying to trap players with his not so innocent question. What could they possibly have answered that he wouldn't be able to find something, anything to pounce on in. Madge should come in here and let me know what's going on with her team.

Team Grape
Sabrar
Vytron
Freezeblade
patzer

The wildcard group: I don't know Sabrar well, Vytron I can never read, freeze I always read as scum, and patzer is a little bit random. If I had to bet, I'd say the day 1 lynch target is in this group. Better band together and protect each other.

Team Pumpkin
crucialityfactor
moody7277
jimbobmacdoodle
Minestrone

cruciality is already defending jim and jimbob randomly voted them, a bit of inter-group drama ready to spark? Moody and Minestrone could provide a more interesting dynamic if Minestrone deems it worthwhile to post.

Rating each team on Likability, Lynchability, and Style:
Pumpkin
Grape
Emerald
Lemon

Vote: Misnomer

Snark wrote:
freezeblade wrote:I am very much on record with the opinion of "D1 suuuuucks"

Unless someone does something super scummy, we're all groping around in the dark.

Which is why lynch the lurker is all the rage. Most people feel bad about voting for someone day 1. I'm not against lynch the lurker but prefer it greatly when no one lurks at all.

Snark wrote:
crucialityfactor wrote:@ sabrar. I learned a long time ago that there is no "townie" or "scummy" way to react to any situation.
False. Otherwise, there is literally nothing to do in this game besides report night results like cops. Maybe a really, really good player has no obvious town or scum tells, but most players do and it's completely ok to look for them.

Snark wrote:I'll have a post here in the morning, but it won't be near enough the deadline to influence anyone, I think.

Unvote
Vote: patzer


Based on having only one post thus far.

I'll have an actual vote in the morning and hopefully patzer will have given content by then so as not to still be a good lurker vote.

Snark wrote:
Lawrencelot wrote:I replaced patzer. And you still haven't answered my question. It's starting to look like it's deliberate.

Vote: Snark
You're voting me because I missed your question after I didn't even realize you were a replacement and I said I was doing a reread in the morning? Great reasoning.

Rereading now. Post in 10 minutes.

Snark wrote:Team Emerald
mpolo
emlightened
Snark

Infighting here. emlightened doesn't post a lot then mpolo votes for them til they do. mpolo votes Madge from team Lemon after saying that he agreed with her about moody and Misnomer, super odd there.

Team Lemon
Madge
SirGabriel
Misnomer

Very odd dynamics here. Madge defended Misnomer, basically FoSed freeze for attacking Misnomer, then voted Misnomer for much the same reasons as everyone else. Misnomer's naughty nice list is more content than most people D1. SirGabe seems low on signal to noise ratio. Hasn't posted recently, almost active lurking.

Team Grape
Sabrar
Vytron-Djehutynakht
Freezeblade
patzer-Lawrencelot

Should change this group to The Replacements or The Expendables. freeze is very much active lurking. Dj replaced in and has yet to post. Lawrencelot is at least contributing, but asked me an empty question I answered in my first post about the groups - to help me organize and to encourage conflict and talking. sabrar has a lot of content, but I've seen nervous scum be overactive to try to steer every single conversation (I used to play like this when I had more free time, moreso as scum but sometimes as town too).

Team Pumpkin
crucialityfactor
moody7277
jimbobmacdoodle
Minestrone

cruciality doesn't have a ton of content, moody seems fine - unsure why the votes, jimbob is neutral, Minestrone is quiet. I'd love for this group to get more animated.

Rating each team on Likability, Lynchability, and Style:
Pumpkin
Grape
Emerald
Lemon

Ratings same as before.

Vote going to Madge for her inconsistency. I don't particularly care if lynch gets pushed to Misnomer or moody instead. Any last minute vote swings give us data regardless of alignment of lynchee and none of my reads are strong enough that I'm going to defend someone.

Unvote
Vote: Madge


I second or third the extension request given that Dj hasn't posted at all.

Snark wrote:
emlightened wrote:@Ninja-Snark: I don't particularly get why you've clumped us into teams. Is it to help your own thought process, or something else?
Answered that already. In my last post.


Now time to do some analysis. Expect it in a couple of hours.

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby mpolo » Mon Dec 21, 2015 5:14 pm UTC

Unvote Misnomer
Image <-- Evil experiment

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:32 pm UTC

Ok, I'm back. Thanks for the extension. It gives me a chance to actually read everyone else!

Since my previous post:

crucialityfactor - requests extension. No further content.
emlightened - clearly hasn't read Snark's posts thoroughly, since she asked a question that was explained twice already:
Snark wrote:I answered in my first post about the groups - to help me organize and to encourage conflict and talking
Her comment on Misnomer vs Moody seems a bit odd, given the votals - her vote would bring any number of different players into the running.
freezblade - no more posts.

Unofficial votals:

Minestrone - 1 (patzerDjehutynakht)
Misnomer - 3 (freezeblade, Madge, mpolo)
VytronLawrencelot - 1 (moody7277)
freezeblade - 1 (Minestrone)
moody7277 - 2 (Misnomer, Sabrar)
Madge - 1 (Snark)
Snark - 1 (lawrencelot)

@emlightened - why do you think Misnomer and Moody are the only two candidates?

(Vytron)Lawrencelot: doesn't think Misnomer/SirGabriel on same team, but their interaction odd. Feels crucialityfactor is acting like Lawrencelot's scum meta. Mpolo more content than usual, freezeblade typical D1, like's Snark for disagreeing with cf. This post could provide some interesting info on Lawrencelot, depending on how people flip over the coming days.

Doesn't like Misnomer's naughty/nice list, and finds his comment re. how he sees himself as scummy. Finds moody's "nervously neutral" as curious, which I agree with. Suggests that moody should vote for Sabrar instead of himself, since he found him scummy. Whilst I agree with the statement (it is odd that someone votes for someone they appear to find less scummy than someone else), the way he said it feels almost "hey look over there, that person is scummier, you should vote him". Votes Snark for not answering his question re. his grouping. Like emlightened, plans to choose between Misnomer and moody. Again, I find this slightly scummy. With so many people on one vote, why insist that you have to pick one of them? Overall, I find Lawrencelot slightly scummy.

Madge: Wild roles likely. Likes Misnomer's attempts to get discussion going. Finds the list of normal roles odd (@Madge - are you referring to SirG's list here or something else?). Defends Misnomer. Reads list follows. She FoSses Misnomer for putting her at the top of his ordered list. Also FoSses mpolo for his probability statements. Finds FB's attack on Misnomer really weak, but doesn't place a FoS. Seems odd to FoS the other two for arguably less suspicious (but valid) reasons to me and not Freezeblade. Thinks people are likely to have submitted interesting roles.

Likes lynching lurkers. Also some discussion on roles. Finds the two votes on Moody confusing, since he's not done anything odd (she hasn't commented on him yet, so that's fair). Votes Misnomer. Her main justifications are because he is voting Moody, and because of his lists. Given that she liked his first list, I find this very suspicious. It almost feels to me like she's decided to bus Misnomer or set him up for a mislynch, one way or the other. Either way:

FoS Madge. Potentially will move it to a vote, once I've had a chance to read everyone else.

@Madge, can you explain your change in opinion?

It's nearly time for dinner, so I'll post this now, and come back to finish off my reads later.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 21, 2015 7:48 pm UTC

Delayed EBWOP: just was about to start work on my next reads post, and noticed that I got the votals wrong, due to mpolo's unvote. Misnomer only has two votes (freezeblade, Madge) if I haven't made a mistake.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:10 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@emlightened - why do you think Misnomer and Moody are the only two candidates?

Because it was only an hour until deadline, and I didn't really expect anyone else to vote in that timeframe.

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:11 pm UTC

EBWOP: Obviously I'm looking at everybody now, or at lest everybody with votes on them.

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:56 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:@Snark: No, you didn't, but you did in the first of those posts state that it was "for use in compartmentalization of remembering everyone."

Would-be-edit: Actually, you did. Sorry. I have a bad habit of skim-reading pretty much everything.

(*Feels bad for triple posting and falsely accusing Snark.*)

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 21, 2015 9:11 pm UTC

Thanks to Suzaku on the extension. Japan vs Central time zones meant I thought I had until tomorrow morning to reply. Ironically enough, right after I was making the comments about the derivative content, he kicks into high gear with oodles of analysis, unfortunately including a vote for me. My game has always been a relatively low volume, but hopefully easily digestible posts; I suspect this is part of what gives me a slightly scummy meta. With what seems a slight degree of righteous anger on his part, I'm backing Sabrar down to neutral from any degree of scumminess.

Current frontrunner appears to be Misnomer, who I wouldn't weep over being lynched, but am not sure enough of to actually switch to voting for at present.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 21, 2015 10:01 pm UTC

Great that the fear of a deadline and the granted extension provided so much content. I plan to process the new material tomorrow morning, just have one quick question to Snark because he seems serious about his method. Randomly assigning the players into teams might help you organize things, but I noticed that precisely because of this grouping you didn't really analyze the interaction between the separate groups (apart from mentioning mpolo's vote on Madge). Leaving the teams out of this, do you have any observation about possible connections between the players?

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 21, 2015 11:17 pm UTC

One thing I should mention, if people would prefer me to post these slightly differently (e.g. keep summaries separate to my own thoughts, or to spoiler each player), please do say.

Minestrone: In their first post, they vote Freezeblade for his vote on Misnomer, saying that it's clear what Misnomer meant when put in context. I went back over the relevant post, and for a moment thought I disagreed, but on thinking about it, I think Minestrone is right. However, his vote seems a bit of a strong reaction for what could have been an honest belief (like I said, I read it in favour of Freezeblade initially). FoSses Sabrar and freezeblade for their role speculation re. non-sane cops, because it is casting unnecessary doubt on investigations. Whilst he's right that unnecessary scepticism of results is bad, we should also be cautious that we don't have a clue what sort of roles might be out there, and therefore if and when people start claiming results, we need to be careful with any conclusions drawn. For example, we shouldn't simply follow the cop's results on their own and should back them up with post analysis. Backs up his freezeblade lynch with claiming that he is active lurking.

He goes on to clarify his comments regarding being sceptical of investigation results. With that, I feel a bit better about his comments, but I suspect that what others meant about trusting things was in the same light as I mentioned above. In other words, check claims versus behaviour. His final post is a discussion of what constitutes real content. Overall I disagree with some of his conclusions - I don't think freezeblade is scum at this point, and I think he's making a bit of a mountain out of a mole hill regarding being sceptical over results). I'd put him at neutral overall, possibly leaning slightly scummy for his aggressiveness at this point, but I would be willing to accept that this could be typical Minestrone, who I don't have a meta read for yet.

Misnomer: He kicks off his posting with some attempts to get discussion going, which I read as very townie. However, his reaction to my quick response and vote for me I find extremely aggressive. He follows up with more questions to SirGabriel regarding his response, which again is townie, in my opinion. Thanks SirGabriel for his responses, and responds to my query about how he would have responded acceptably. He also makes his "town has nothing to hide" comment, but follows it up in response to Freezeblade clarifying it as referring to alignments. In response to crucialityfactor and patzer querying Misnomer on his responses, he sticks by his previous opinions. I think that's fair and townie (I disagree still, but obviously I know my own alignment).

Next up comes his gut feeling list of player alignment. As others have pointed out already, his choice of ordering seems a little odd, and suddenly I am no longer anywhere near his most scummy player. This could be because of tunnelling, but Misnomer takes a while to acknowledge this and only once asked by Sabrar. Overall, I don't mind his responses to people querying him over the list, with the exception of his "with a fair chance of being third party" when rating himself. The one thing I would say is that his vote on Moody has not had any reasoning behind it except for his gut feeling. Overall, I find him townie, and would prefer not to lynch him (yes, I know this may make me look scummy post flip, but it is my belief) but I would like an answer to this:

@Misnomer, do you have anything to back up your vote on moody beyond your gut feeling? Is there anything in particular that stands out to you about him?

Moody: His first post includes a random vote on Vytron, and a statement that he believes that Misnomer might be a more exotic alignment from his list. Thinks there will be lots of crazy roles. Suggests that SirGabriel might be a serial killer, because SirG doesn't expect there to be an SK in the game (@Moody, was that a serious suggestion?). FoSses cf for "not knowing there is town" which seems a little bit of an overreaction as others said. On the other hand, I acknowledge that different players treat IGMEOYs and FoSses differently to each other. Moody might use them more for lesser signs of scumminness than I do. He later posts a fairly detailed analysis of different players. Not too much stands out to me apart from the fact already identified that he rates people as "nervously neutral". Overall, I don't see a significant case against Moody, but nor do I see him doing anything particularly townie currently. Neutral.

@Moody - what do you mean by "nervously neutral"?

Mpolo: Begins with some setup speculation, and defence of my response to Misnomer's question. He uses some basic statistics to suggest that I am town, based on being scum in my previous games, but accepts afterwards that it is not necessarily a valid statement. Moves onto some more setup speculation. Would be willing to accept lurker lynch above no lynch, but only marginally. Gives a reads list, but almost all of his results are a variation of neutral. Votes emlightened for active lurking. Some brief interaction with cf, asking if town existing was new information to him, but also "getting the joke".

@Mpolo, to clarify was your first comment in response to cf here intended as part of the joke?

Unvotes emlightened after she contributed more. More setup discussion again, regarding millers/godfathers. Brief comments on a few players, and votes Madge based on these. An hour later, he unvotes and votes Misnomer with little explanation except not wanting to have random.org decide, then unvotes after the extension was granted. Overall nothing too scummy, but again no major townie points either. He seems to like setup speculation (he did in Draculafia too). I accept this might be D1 indecision, so neutral for now.

@Mpolo - Is there a reason you didn't replace your vote on Madge following your late vote switch and subsequent unvote?

patzer/DJ: Just a single post by patzer here. Suggests Misnomer might be third party, and would have been as cautious as me in responding to Misnomer, along with reasons why Misnomer's logic is faulty. Random votes Minestrone. Hopefully DJ will actually start contributing soon. Patzer's only post was ok, but no conclusion due to lack of posts.

Sabrar: Very active in terms of post counts. This seems to match his behaviour in his previous game where he flipped town, so is not an indication of being scum (but also does not confirm him as town from meta, since we need to see him in other alignments first). Doesn't expect crazy alignments. Found my response to Misnomer strange and rushed - I accept it was rushed since I was posting something quickly whilst at work. Points out that probabilities are independent to mpolo, regarding my alignment. He posts a list of likely common roles. I'm surprised that non-sane cop is at the top, above custom roles, suggesting to me that Sabrar either submitted one himself or submitted a regular role from elsewhere in the list. It almost certainly means that he didn't submit a made up role. I'm very suspicious of him putting godfather/miller at the bottom with "rules forbid this" given that actually rules explicitly discuss such roles implying that they are allowed. Suggests that we should be suspicious of investigative results for all sort of reasons (see my earlier comments on this). Thinks that Misnomer and SirGabriel might be working together due to SirG's quick response to Misnomer. I don't agree, since I regularly see posts just after they are put up and will occasionally reply very soon after, I don't think that closeness of posting is a sign of teamwork. Discusses posting restrictions a bit, then crucialityfactor's joke.

Moves onto a conversation with Misnomer regarding his naughty/nice list, asking him various questions. I like this, but I find it interesting that he doesn't really post any thoughts on Misnomer's responses. There's nothing wrong with asking questions, but if you don't react to the responses in some way, what was the point? Finds frequent voting/unvoting scummy, due to showing no strong stance on things. Isn't happy with moody saying that Sabrar is active lurking. I agree with Sabrar that he is not active lurking, in my opinion, although I think a few more of his own thoughts would be good. Over the weekend, he posts several lengthy posts analysing each player in turn (hey, that seems familiar!). Regarding his comments on my faulty reasoning, I think I didn't explain myself too well at the time. Specifically, I found it odd that Other was so far down the list, given another game's setup. The intent at the time was to indicate that I could believe him to be "Other", but I felt it more likely that he was in the top three. However, as I acknowledged elsewhere my early post (and its follow ups) were all made in relatively short blocks of time, so I didn't reread things properly either. For what it's worth, I think it more likely that scum would reread a post several times than a town to make sure it is accurate and makes 100% sense, since they want to avoid slipping up (this is from personal experience). For the record, I still believe SirGabriel is most likely in one of the standard factions in the order I posted earlier, pending my reread. I also don't think Suzaku would have thrown an unusual alignment into a game likely (admittedly only in my opinion given the lack of flips) with so many unusual roles. That aside, I can't see anything obviously suspicious of his reasoning in these posts. Although I don't particularly agree with his conclusions (his vote and FoS on moody and Minestrone are on players that I have as neutral rather than scummy), they are backed up with reasoning. The posts also show to me that he's putting a lot of effort into the game, which I think is more likely coming from town than scum (although seem my posting style for my previous two games where I was scum and posted similarly).

He follows up Minestrone's responses with some solid explanations, which is good to see here. After that, there's little else from him to talk about. Overall, I think Sabrar is likely town.

It's getting late, and this is already far too much of another wall of text. Please do say so if this is irritating you. I will finish off tomorrow with analyses of SirGabriel and Snark. Off the top of my head, I haven't seen anything particularly scummy from them, so in case I don't get done in time before deadline tomorrow:

Vote Madge

for reasons in my earlier post.

Preview edit (yes this post took me several hours to write, but I was watching a film at the same time...):

@emlightened - ok, that makes more sense now. I assume that you will be considering more people given the extension?
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Mon Dec 21, 2015 11:35 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@emlightened - ok, that makes more sense now. I assume that you will be considering more people given the extension?
Yep. Wanted to post an analysis and vote tonight, but I'm leaving it until tomorrow. (I should be able to finish it before the deadline.)

Also, if Madge explained her reasons and this made you unvote her, who would your second choice for voting be?

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:03 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Moody - what do you mean by "nervously neutral"?


Their pattern of posting is what I find to make me nervous about them. A lot of superficial stuff, maybe very late role spec. As I said re Madge, that pattern when applied to another player was definitely a scum tell, but since I am not as zeroed in on their (Lawrencelot and Madge) meta and I didn't see anything specific, I had to classify them as neutral.

On the SirG SK thing, that was back toward the start of the game in the frivolity phase, although it looks stereotypical. Finding scum is work enough D1, if anyone wants to play "Find the SK D1" I say lay on.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Misnomer » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:10 am UTC

@Sabrar: this is a turbo game, so I'd have thought frequent voting/unvoting would be par the course - particularly on Day 1 when the only other options are a random voting phase that never reveals anything or several pages of awkward posts saying 'well we don't have much to go on here' :p

As for your position on the list, gut feelings were a key driver for me: something about the tone of your earlier posts struck me as off, and I got a sense of evasiveness and aversion to committal from your contributions, which actually produced relatively little content relative to the number of times you were posting.

@Jimbob: I found the tone of moody's earlier posts somewhat off - the whole 'let's just get back to random voting' thing struck me as odd, as did the serial killer suggestion, all the more so given a context of many posts but little content. I also agreed with CF's assessment of his FoS on CF as being a safe, non-committal move that looks less contentful than it actually is. Subsequent player post analysis by moody is mostly descriptive rather than analytical (my own entry being a notable exception). I suppose the main ping I get from moody, gut feelings aside, is the overall safeness of his content, which in the earlier stages of the content was borderline active lurking, though admittedly his more recent posts now seem to be showing a departure from this pattern. All in all, I'm happy with my vote.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:18 am UTC

misnomer vote reason: as i said in my first post about misnomer that i thought the list thing was weird and against meta, and i ultimately decided that this weird departure from meta was worth my vote on d1, which, let me remind you, is terrible

Unofficial votals:

Minestrone - 1 (patzerDjehutynakht)
Misnomer - 3 (freezeblade, Madge, mpolo)
VytronLawrencelot - 1 (moody7277)
freezeblade - 1 (Minestrone)
moody7277 - 2 (Misnomer, Sabrar)
Madge - 2 (Snark, jimbob)
Snark - 1 (lawrencelot)

considering how ignoring my vote it's me/misnomer/moody all tied on 2 votes I maintain my vote on misnomer because of the departure from meta. I am not voting for moody because I don't think moody has been acting any different from normal, and I am not voting for myself for reasons I hope you find obvious.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Minestrone » Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:15 am UTC

I will probably not be awake in time for the deadline in the morning so unless I post later tonight this will probably be my last post of the day. I don't think the arguments for moody or misnomer being scum are particularly compelling. Misnomer is getting attention for their actions at the beginning of the day but I think if anything about them is scummy it's their relative incaction for the rest of the day. I actually have a bit of a gut scum read on moody but my head tells me that given the way moody plays I would have that whether they're town or scum. I don't really agree with a Madge lynch, they've been relatively low activity but they have a decent excuse for it, and reading back through the way their opinion progresses on Misnomer seems natural enough.

Since I don't think a Misnomer lynch is much different from a moody lynch in terms of likelihood of hitting scum and since I still think Freezeblade is scummier than either of them I'm going to keep my vote on them.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 7:52 am UTC

Disjointed thoughts and replies incoming:

By now so many people have stated that 'they don't understand the votes on moody7277' and that 'this is his usual meta', that I thought it would warrant a response. While I cannot speak for Misnomer I've given my detailed reasons for my vote here, but to recap:
- his post style seems like active lurking to me (he even acknowledges later that he has a 'slightly scummy meta');
- his FoS on crucialityfactor is very strange (and crucialityfactor gives a very reasonable and thought-provoking response to it);
- his style of analysis reminded me of an extremely similar one from a previous game that was provided by scum.
With that in mind I've been getting some townie-vibes from him in his most recent posts, although there was not a lot of new content. In Smalltown my reads based solely on the tone of the posts were right 2 out of 3 times and I concede that I'm not familiar with his meta. I've also re-read his D1 participation in Smalltown (where he was town) to see if there would be any differences. He posted a bit more analysis there but otherwise his activity was similar. For now I will unvote but keep a FoS out, with the caveat that should moody7277 flip as scum later I will FoS and re-read all people defending him.

Unvote: moody7277
FoS: moody7277

@Misnomer: thank you for your answers. I don't agree that frequent voting/unvoting should be the norm for a Turbo game (apart from the random block), but you have more experience than me here. :)

@Minestrone: similar to moody7277 I'm getting town-vibes from the tone. I still think that they need to post more content and I'm not sure how I feel about them defending 2 of the top 3 lynch candidates. For now my FoS stands, pending further review.

People who I very much wanted to hear from but didn't post: Djehutynakht, Lawrencelot. At this point I'm expecting Djehutynakht to be mod-killed (which is probably for the best so we don't have to waste a lynch) and I'm eagerly awaiting Lawrencelot's updated analysis and explanation for the claim. From this post it seems to me that he was seriously under the impression that he replaced patzer but I don't really understand how such a mix-up could occur.

@Suzaku: I apologize in advance for doubting you, just want to cover all bases. Did you send Lawrencelot the correct materials regarding who he would replace?

@jimbobmacdoodle: I did not forget you and there's a lot that I want to react to, however some of it concerns posting style rather than the actual content of the game so I'll put it in a separate post for ease of reading.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Suzaku » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:21 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Suzaku: I apologize in advance for doubting you, just want to cover all bases. Did you send Lawrencelot the correct materials regarding who he would replace?


[b]Yes.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:17 am UTC

@Suzaku: thank you!

@jimbobmacdoodle

Post style
Spoiler:
- Personally I enjoy wall-of-texts (reading and writing), however some players in Smalltown reacted negatively to it and even found it scummy.
- However I don't think detailed post summaries are necessary or very useful, people should read and re-read the thread anyways when they make their own analysis. In my opinion there's no need to recap every single post, what's more important is your opinion on their content. Please try to re-read from an outsider's point-of-view the two paragraphs you wrote regarding mpolo for example and tell me what original content did you see and if you could really understand the poster's reasoning.
- You seem to be writing out your thoughts as you progress with the posts one-by-one and don't go back to edit your previous opinions even when new information is available. This makes it significantly harder for me to fully understand your stance on matters, also it allows for false impression (please see below for example).

Actual game content regarding others
- what I found really interesting is that despite the amount of work you've put into your analysis you have only 1 person in your scum-list. This seems like a continuation of your earlier cautious response to Misnomer.

Concerns addressed to me
- no comment on what I submitted but I find it curious that you would have such a strong 'read' on me based on one detail that I explained later.
- I've explained my stance on the miller/godfather issue in multiple posts, so no new comment on that either. Please re-read.
- I've already retracted the idea of Misnomer/SirGabriel teamwork, if you hadn't noticed.
- I've explained why I'm asking Misnomer so many questions here. It was to see if he could back up his gut-feeling with reasonable analysis (mentioned also here).
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:For what it's worth, I think it more likely that scum would reread a post several times than a town to make sure it is accurate and makes 100% sense, since they want to avoid slipping up (this is from personal experience).

I always aim to review my posts multiple times to make sure that I have all the names, links, etc correctly, that no typo remained and that my thoughts are clearly communicated. I think it's important to show respect to others in that regard but I accept that not everybody takes the required time to do so.

Overall you list several things that you don't like in my posts, state multiple times that my posting pattern matches Town but immediately point out that it could be scum as well and finally arrive at the conclusion that I'm most likely townie. This feels strange to me but I'm definitely biased in this regard, so don't want to draw conclusions from that. I still find it probable that you're 3rd party.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby mpolo » Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:25 am UTC

jimbobmacadoodle wrote:@Mpolo, to clarify was your first comment in response to cf here intended as part of the joke?

@Mpolo - Is there a reason you didn't replace your vote on Madge following your late vote switch and subsequent unvote?


At the first comment, I took it as a joke and made a joking response. In the back of my mind, I knew that I would interpret an exaggerated defensive response to my joke as being scummy, but didn't really expect that to happen. So it was really a fluff post.

I had only a few seconds to post, and I had promised to unvote if given more time, so I did so. I didn't really think about who I wanted to vote for after that.

My reasons for voting Madge haven't really changed. Particularly the first "wishy-washy" post stands out here.

Vote: Madge

I think I will have some more re-read time later today, so this may not be final.

On text walls, I think that the crucial arguments and questions to players definitely need to be easily visible. Summaries and musings can be hidden behind spoiler tags. I tend to put my notes in a spoiler tag on the theory that reading my thought process could be helpful to someone else, and so that I don't lose my notes for later.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:18 pm UTC

Less than an hour until the deadline, time to vote. Unofficial votals:

Minestrone - 1 (patzer/Djehutynakht)
Misnomer - 2 (freezeblade, Madge)
Vytron/Lawrencelot - 1 (moody7277)
freezeblade - 1 (Minestrone)
moody7277 - 1 (Misnomer)
Madge - 3 (Snark, jimbobmacdoodle, mpolo)
Snark - 1 (Vytron/Lawrencelot)

I have FoS on Minestrone and moody 7277, while the majority leans toward Madge and Misnomer.
- Minestrone: they only have a joke vote on them, would not be fair to try and exploit it when noone else finds them scummy.
- moody7277: I may still decide to vote for him if none of the other two cases are convincing enough.
- Misnomer: with a brief re-read I still do not find anything scummy about him apart from the one answer to crucialityfactor that was already mentioned. However that it far too little for me to vote upon when better options are available.
- Madge: I retract my suspicion of a Madge/Misnomer scum-team, due to later posts. I agree with others that she's being wishy-washy (and have already noted so in my analysis). However her attack on Misnomer came before she was voted even once, so it's not like scum desperately attempting to find a suitable lynch instead of herself. It looks to me like she could have found a better target to latch unto if she were scum. She's definitely on the scummy side of neutral, but I'm not fully convinced.

Sorry moody7277, looks like you're the 'weakest link'. :)

Vote: moody7277

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:29 pm UTC

As a deadline is coming up, I will address people's points, after I've finished my reareads. So, Sabrar, emlightened etc, I haven't forgotten about you, and will respond as soon as I am able to.

As suggested I am posting the post summaries in spoilers. I'm still trying to figure out the best strategy for helping me tune my scumdar, especially given that this is my first town game.

SirGabriel:
Spoiler:
Random vote on Minestrone. Ordered list of likely roles. Thinks renamed 2nd mafia faction (aka werewolves) more likely than plain 2nd mafia. Explanation of alignment list regarding odd and other factions. Wouldn't be surprised if town and mafia only factions. Role speculation, calls for suggested list. Removes random vote, unsure where to put real vote. Wanted to create discussion. Godfather/miller possible.
I can certainly see where some suspicions are coming from on SirG. He has relatively low content, which I think is different from his usual meta, but might be because he is in the tail end of Smalltown as he explains. I know I found it hard to balance the tail end of Draculafia and the start of Smalltown. He hasn't really followed up anything regarding his role speculation list, and hasn't commented his own thoughts yet. Overall, leaning slightly scummy.

FoS SirGabriel

Snark:
Spoiler:
Groups players artificially. Doesn't like Mpolo's possibilities. Thinks Misnomer was going to pounce on any response to his questions, and votes him for this. Prefers no lurker, but lynch the lurker is fine. All except really good scum players have meta, meaning that analysing people is good. Unvotes and votes patzer for lurking. Finds it odd that mpolo voted for Madge after previously agreeing. Similarly finds Team Lemon dynamics odd. Says Sabrar has low content and finds slightly scummy because he appears to be trying to participate in every conversation. Wants more animation from Team Pumpkin. Votes Madge for inconsistency.
I understand that Snark has some sort of reasoning in his artificial grouping, but I don't really follow it myself. His vote on Misnomer makes sense based on his reasoning, although I can't say that I agree, and his reasoning could have been constructed (we have no evidence that Misnomer would have jumped on any response given). His Madge vote is basically for the same reasons as mine, so I obviously agree with that. Overall, fairly town, as I haven't seen anything particularly that suggests that he is scum.

@Snark: To clarify your ordering, is it from happiest with to least happy with, top to bottom?

By the way, I've decided to try to stop calling people neutral, as I realise that it doesn't really help overall. Responses to posts since my other summaries to follow, along with a final review of my vote.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:50 pm UTC

My preference would be to vote for one of the main lurkers. But I think all 3 or so of them will end up being solid contributers in day 2 and beyond. Or at least the mod can work on sorting them out.

I don't think that misnomer is scummy and I think people have been too hard on him over nothing. Trying to facilitate day 1 discussion is not an easy thing to do. I don't think he should be penalized for that.

I am sorry that I haven't been able to finish out today as actively as I started it. But I'm sure as most of you are I too have been busy with finishing things up at work and for the holidays.

I haven't really been able to look at madge at this point. So thatvseems unfair of me to vote to lynch.

vote moody

I'm going to stand by my rant.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:58 pm UTC

To save time, I've only analysed the players with votes on them.

Minestrone - 1 (patzerDjehutynakht)
    Votes freezeblade for being disengagous in Misnomer's vote list. Probably not the best of reasons, but they maintain freeze feeling scummy thorughout their posts. FoS's Sabrar for mentioning non-sane cops and making people mistrust cop results. Returns to deciding to vote freezeblade. Remains suspicious of Sabrar. helps explain what constitutes good content to Sabrar. Doesn't think that Misnomer or moody lynches are for solid reasons, but doesn't explain what they think on them. Neutral.
Misnomer - 2 (freezeblade, Madge)
    Generates lots of early D1 discussion by posting an allignment list. Quickly votes jimbob for a very cautious response, explains roles to GirGabriel, and guesses that he's town. Amends 'town has nothing to hide' statement after freezeblade's vote on him. Patzer puts Misnomer as 'third party', but then notes Minestrone anyway. Snark has Misnomer as trying to trap other players with not-so-innocent questions, and votes. Later posts a Nice-Naughty list of players. This one is curious, as he posts some lurkers as much closer to nice than some townie-like content generators. He says that he thinks he's 'leaning town with a fair chance of being third party', which I think is declaring he's third-party. (which his posts are rather like) Finds tone of moody's posts off and says that it's good to go off gut feeling. Feels third-party.
VytronLawrencelot - 1 (moody7277)
    Finds self detached from game due to not submitting a role and Vytron not posting; has posted little. Feeling lurky
freezeblade - 1 (Minestrone)
    Only 2 (lurky) posts since page 2. Feels very much lurky, but said that he hates day 1. Unsure on what to feel.
moody7277 - 3 (Misnomer, Sabrar, crucialityfactor)
    Little content. Overreacts to crucialityfactor's joke on Suzaku being helpful by saying that there are town. Reacts to Misnomer placing them as scummiest on gut feeling. Odd comment on 'nervously neutral'. Says Sabrar is mainly directing questions at other players, and has Sabrar as active lurking. Unsure about whether to vote Misnomer. Almost active-lurking. A few cite meta being 'slightly scummy', but this doesn't mean he's town. Slightly scummy.
Madge - 3 (Snark, jimbob, mpolo)
    Posts have been fairly wishy-washy, and little real content. It's possible that she's been doing this because she's ill, but not sure.
Snark - 1 (lawrencelot)list]Odd usage of team analyses. This prevents him from measuring inter-team interaction, and could be hiding potential scum-teams.[/list]

Ultimately, I'm feelng the least at-ease with moody, and while Madge could be scum, I think it possible that irl has interfered with her post quality, after she said she was so ill.

Vote: moody7277

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:59 pm UTC

Firstly, in response to Madge: I'm not happy with Madge's response, I'm afraid. It seems too big a swing from one end to the other, almost a case of trying to push a different wagon, now that I think about it. There was a lot of discussion of Misnomer already, and I think would be a fairly straightforward alternate wagon to start. Of course, there would be no need to start a different wagon if her scum-buddy wasn't leading the lynch, so if Madge flips scum, I'm going to look at moody with suspicion. She also missed an admittedly slightly hidden question for her, so to repeat:

@Madge - you said "list of normal roles is weird", which I think was in reference to Misnomer's alignment list. Would you mind confirming if that was what you meant?

@emlightened - I think I'd have switched my vote to SirGabriel, for the reasons listed in my previous post.

@Misnomer - thank you for your response. As noted earlier, I find moody neutral, but I'm willing to review that position pending further information. However, you seem to have valid reasons, so I'm satisfied for now.

@moody - thank you for your responses as well. Are you saying that if you don't have a meta read on them, you won't consider them scummy early on? If so, why are you voting Lawrencelot as opposed to someone you find scummy?

@Sabrar - re. posting style. Thank you for expressing your opinion. I think I understand what you mean. As noted, I've tried to adjust my posting style to post all thoughts outside a spoiler containing post summaries. The post summaries help me come to an opinion, I've found.

Also @Sabrar - re. content. Yes, I'm naturally cautious. I'm not going to have time before deadline to completely allocate everyone into town/third party/scum camps, but I will try to do that early D2, if I'm still alive. Fair enough on the rereading individual posts. My non-detailed reads posts are usually written quickly at work or on a phone, so I don't have as much time or ability to reread. I'll try to be clearer moving forward.

@mpolo - thank you for your response. No further comment on this, I think, since your opinion on Madge matches my own.

Deadline in about 1 minute, so posting now! See you tomorrow. Ninja'ed several times, will review later.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Madge » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:04 pm UTC

No, was it Misnomer who sent out the list of roles or was it someone else? I mean the person who put the list of roles, you know, cop, dr, etc (or am I imagining it)?

Anyway, i'm about to go to bed so I'm afraid I'm just going to put a keeping-myself-alive vote:

vote: moody

bring on d2, we should have some result to share!
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:07 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@emlightened - I think I'd have switched my vote to SirGabriel, for the reasons listed in my previous post.

If I had time to look at another player's posts, it would have been his (particularly his actions with Misnomer). But, ultimately, I had to decide on Madge or moody. I might have been a bit quick with my vote on Madge, but it was too close to the deadline for me to have a proper look. I hope I don't regret it.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:21 pm UTC

Ok, wasn't expecting to start a train. Somebody needs to investigate Madge ASAP to see if it was scum trying to avoid her lynch.

@Madge: SirGabriel posted the list of the roles, Misnomer the list of alignments.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:28 pm UTC

Unvote

Vote:Madge

Useless maybe. Sabrar's backslide after he explained why I shouldn't be voted on is odd, cf knows my meta well enough that he shouldn't be voting me, and Madge is just being oppurtunistic.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:32 pm UTC

Unvote
Vote: Madge

F**k it. I hate being on an obvious train and Madge is scummy enough. Might be a terrible idea.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:38 pm UTC

Okay, I thought the deadline was hard, not soft. Don't know if I've got enough time for it, but I'll have another look at Madge's posts.

Unvote (moody)

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby emlightened » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:46 pm UTC

Sorry, but I genuinely don't see Madge as scummy, but I think moody might be.

Vote: moody

I think this brings it to a 4/4 tie.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby mpolo » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:54 pm UTC

I greatly prefer the Madge lynch, so I really can't unvote to break the tie. Even though I'm fairly philosophically opposed to allowing a random lynch…
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:54 pm UTC

Madge wrote:OK so there's a tiny nascent wagon on moody which is confusing to me because nothing he did struck me as odd.

vote: misnomer

the ordering lists are really weird from a meta point of view and i know scum likes to do stuff to make it look like they're participating whilst making town focus on weird things like does it matter if SirGabriel (and only sirgabriel!) thinks we're more likely to have a militant atheist or a beloved soul. Being one of the people voting on moody which I just don't quite understand, moody is being stock standard moody. may as well let misnomer be part of the conversation here.

This here suggests to me that Madge:town AND moody7277:scum cannot be true at the same time, therefore Madge lynch is preferable.

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Sabrar
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby Sabrar » Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:59 pm UTC

EBWOP: although it could be read vice versa as well. Damn.
I highly doubt that both of them are town, so the only thing that currently makes sense to me is that they're both scum and resigned to lose one to make the other look townie.

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moody7277
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D1 - Christmas Cheer

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:03 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:EBWOP: although it could be read vice versa as well. Damn.
I highly doubt that both of them are town, so the only thing that currently makes sense to me is that they're both scum and resigned to lose one to make the other look townie.


Which is what I was talking about by saying that Madge is opportunistic. Either I'm town and she's piling on to make sure town gets lynched, or I'm scum and she's bussing in order to look townie.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.


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