Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (Game Over)

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Snark » Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:04 am UTC

There are no codes in that post, nor secret meanings of animals. I'm just trying to classify people and tell you all apart.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 15, 2016 9:03 am UTC

@Carlington: please let us know if you will be able to contribute more.

@bessie: thank you for the explanation, your list seemed a little out of place to me as it didn't have a direct connection to the rest of your post.

@Snark: in your list you give a verifiable reason for your read in 3 cases (crucialityfactor, emlightened, mpolo), you have 2 neutral reads because of lack of content (Carlington, kalira) and 4 reads 'just because'. Would you mind explaining the last 4 in more detail please?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:59 pm UTC

Ok, so I've done a read through and it's given me some more perspective on things. I'm not going to do an overall Town->Scum list, because I don't think that really works all that well on D1. It's more of an order of who I think should move on to D2.

Move On (In Order)
Bessie - Once again, a content machine. Less attacking in this game so far. But, active enough that she'll prove herself one way or the other as the game goes on.
Sabrar - Good, reasonable content as well for the most part. Seems to be fishing a bit for someone to go after. But that tends to happen D1.
Snark - Really letting Chane get his goat. Probably let his emotions steer this D1 conflict we are having too much. Feel like he wants to lynch Chane for non-mafia reasons. Which is understandable. I don't really want to play with someone either if they are being an ass and talking down too much to the players. His emotions are actually keeping him up here though. Giving strong opinions and digging in is good to have.
Mpolo - Miller claim is interesting. Is trying to be more active in this game. Without the miller claim I would probably be more wary of him because he is so middle of the road to me in his posts. Meaning he would be down in the second group.
Chane - Got off to a really rough start here. Probably had people prying too much into an innocent comment that probably wouldn't be made if she had more time on these fora. Really reacted poorly to the pressure and is being too conceited. As mentioned by Bessie, this game has 9 other people in it and we all have our roles to play and importance. Also, in my personal opinion, Doctor is like really not all that useful. Especially when you set yourself up to be such an obvious target. You can't really protect yourself, and getting a successful protect on 1/9 other players is such a huge crap shoot. Willing to give a chance to have her move on to D2, but play style needs to be adjusted.
Carlington - I've liked what content he has put out up to this point. Would love to see more from him. But I get it, sometimes things are busy. :)


D1 Lynch Options (Not In Order)
Diemo/Madge - Diemo was really giving me mixed feelings. Was leaning more towards scum on him. Feel torn about lynching Madge though because of it. Hard to properly evaluate replacement players. Would probably lean towards giving her another day depending on how she contributes moving forward.
Emlightened - Just never have a good feeling about her. Would probably put her in the same boat as Mpolo if she were to have done his claim. I feel like there's too much floating along in the middle. Dipping in to things and then pulling back out.
Kalira - Really liked the flavor background post. But, just really nothing else. She would be more of a lynch the lurker, which I'm not a huge fan of. But, at the same time, would rather keep people around who are going to increase the post count.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:07 pm UTC

@bessie: I know it's a bit late, but you asked about my thoughts on your thoughts on the set up. :)

I think your ideas are reasonable as well. At first read a few days ago, I thought they seemed overly complex in some ways, but, I think you may be right. From how people have been hinting at their roles, and judging by the flavor that this game is built around, we probably have some very complex roles going on. So just assuming one person to be one thing (i.e. cop) is probably not doing the setup justice. Just like assuming there is just a 2 player mafia with a night kill and a normal cult is probably naive. Plus jimbob is in control and he's a bit of a maniac. ;)

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby kalira » Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:29 pm UTC

emlightened wrote: kalira - Large flavourdump as first post. They continue to rely on flavour (too much?) for much of their next post, and point out Chane being weird and a possible Jester. Slightly scummy.


It is possible I'm relying too heavily on flavour. Unlike Carlington, I thought flavour would be more likely heavily influential, so I figured I'd throw as much out there as I could to get everyone closer to the same page. Also, I liked thinking through the flavour as I wrote about it because I'm honestly shite at D1.

Chane did seem like a Jester to me in her early posts, or rather, seemed like what a totally new player might play jester as. Now that I know she's not completely new to Mafia, I'm rethinking that stance. Given power-heavy setup, I’m willing to admit there may be something to what town!Chane is saying about not revealing at the moment, but she's still more aggressive and non-team than I would expect this early on, especially from someone new to here, and I still don’t like the “for you to find out never” thing.

[quote=”Diemo”] Nah Aes Sedai are the good guys. Mafia are Darkfriends.[/quote]
I never said Aes Sedai were “the bad guys” in this game. In point of fact, given the level of flavordump I already had out there, if this game followed flavour at all, it would be darn silly of me not to know that Darkfriends would be the bad guys, regardless of whether that phrasing appeared in role PMs or not. But not all Aes Sedai are good. I wish I had gotten to ask Diemo his level of flavour knowledge before he was replaced, because it would have a bearing on just how suspicious I found that statement. There are, within flavour, Darkfriend Aes Sedai – though I honestly don’t remember who is, so unsure whether there are any with the Amyrlin. Based on my knowledge, Moiraine, Suian (the Amyrlin), Egwene, and Nynaeve are not Darkfriends.

[quote=”Snark”] So was Kalitas telling me they found me scummy for acting like town?[/quote]
Nope, was not accusing you of anything, just commenting on the mechanics. At that point, I don’t really think you had enough content to really speak to, accusation-wise. I initially read the list posts as mostly null, but this was just a case of re-reading your list of 10 things post and a flash going off in my head. It seemed very similar in tone to things I saw from Aes Sedai as I read the books, and the part of my brain that likes to think about game mechanics thought it would be cool (from that perspective) to have the whole "Aes Sedai cannot lie, but they can wrap the truth around their fingers" thing be part of the game.

As Sabrar later said, it would probably not be terribly exciting/welcome for there to be such a posting restriction imposed in the game, which in retrospect I guess I agree with. Please just chalk this up to kal being a mechanics nerd who got overly excited about a thing she forgot to put in that at the time seemed like a cool mechanic.

Mpolo’s miller claim I’m willing to accept at the moment until he shows some other pingy signs of mafia-tude. As others stated, it’s a bold move for scum to try to pull off early.

Snark vs Chane dominates a lot of the following. They both seem tunneled on each other. Everyone else has discussed the heck out of this so there’s probably not much more I can add here. Town!Chane needs to be more helpful and answer questions or talk about things other than her role or Snark’s accusations. Town!Snark is either very right or understandably mistaken.

Bessie was voting for emlightened, then attacks Chane and ends up unvoting em and voting… em. Bessie, was this a mistake? If not, please explain.

@Sabrar (spoilered for off topic and probably past anyone else’s interest - anyone may read, this was just aimed at Sabrar)
Spoiler:
FWIW, Sabrar, English is my first language and I misread Snark's "Except if you're a jester." line as well. To me, it read as "Although, if you're a jester." rather than "Unless you are a jester.", which is what he clarified it to mean. It may possibly be an other-than-American English thing? I'm not sure where Snark is from, but I don't think I've heard that phrasing used that way amongst USicans. AFAIK we don't use 'except' at the beginning of a sentence aside from where it is synonymous with 'although'. So thanks for clarifying with him, because I was in the same boat as you!


In the middle of writing short summaries/alignment-feel of everyone and anything I notice late page 3-page 4. Post that in a few.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby kalira » Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:30 pm UTC

Dammit, I had that in Word and it screwed with quotes... should have previewed. My apologies.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby kalira » Tue Mar 15, 2016 5:48 pm UTC

bessie – long posts, lots of content; seems to be trying to help Chane post more content – based on her post to Chane, possible long shot she’s scumbuddies with Chane trying to get her to shape up, but willing to admit that’s pretty unlikely atm. I agree with most of her reads; I think she came down too harsh on emlightened’s early post against Chane, but she doesn’t seem tunneled. Neutral leaning town.

Carlington – suspicious of me for reliance on flavor over other’s play though it was early days with little content. One good analysis post to this point; no real comments on the Snark vs. Chane thing; may still be dealing with his move. Neutral pending more content.

Chane – hints at/claims knowledge regarding CF’s alignment, but does a lot of non-team playing; seems tunneled on Snark; difficult to get anything out of her posts regarding anything other than Snark. No reads on anyone else. Seems to be outright refusing to answer direct questions to her. Leaning scum.

crucialityfactor – “supports the idea” that he is town (null); unwilling to discuss his relationship to Chane, if there is one; seems to be willing to discuss Chane objectively. I agree with his comments that trying to suss out the exact nature of the relationship is probably not good in a small game. If Chane is scum, I don’t think it will automatically follow that CF is. Neutral.

Diemo/Madge – Diemo had some level of flavor knowledge but threw flavor I know to be misleading (possibly just a function of level of flavor knowledge he didn’t have). Didn’t have a lot of content or reads (though it was early days); seems dismissive/uncaring of his own early missteps/misunderstandings but doesn’t explain or offer any commentary on them. No real content yet from Madge, though this is understandable. Neutral leaning scum pending Madge’s content.

emlightened – picked up on Chane’s mention of CF’s alignment before CF had posted anything, which definitely caused some content to happen; didn’t come after Snark for what appears to be essentially the same thing (she mentions this later as having missed it). Sometimes seems like she is trying to rolefish; can’t tell if this is actual rolefishing or just trying to generate content. Couple of misreads, but I’m willing to believe the offered explanations. Neutral leaning slightly town.

mpolo – First post miller claim, which would seem ballsy for anti-town to claim. Not a ton of content, but does offer some reads. Seems neutral as far as Chane lynch goes. Neutral leaning town.

Sabrar – lots of shorter posts, but seems to have some content in most of them; nothing I seriously object to. Says he can grok a reason Chane might make the claims she does, but doesn’t go into it (slightly townie tell). Seems to be directing a fair amount of play towards more content. For some reason doesn’t have a real list of reads, though. Neutral at the moment.

Snark – seems tunneled on Chane, very aggressive. Does seem to be trying to encourage actual play; drops speculative posting ideas when they don’t seem as useful anymore. Seems an odd play for scum to try so hard to get someone lynched D1 that might end up causing their own D2 lynch when they flip town, so either scum!Snark is almost certain Chane is jester, or he is likely townie. Leaning town.


Sabrar, could you post your current reads on everyone?

Chane, could you post your current reads on everyone?
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 15, 2016 6:36 pm UTC

@kalira: the only reason I didn't have a read-list is because I was waiting for your and crucialityfactor's post so I would be able to include everyone. If you read through my previous games here you would see that I leave posting my reads late in the day to gather as much info as possible. I'll have them up soon.

BTW thanks for your spoilered input, I'm glad I wasn't the only one confused. :)

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:05 pm UTC

*bangs head on the wall* The 'agressiveness' is me trying to protect cf. If our role is fully revealed, he would die tonight. Satisfied?

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby kalira » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:13 pm UTC

Chane wrote:*bangs head on the wall* The 'agressiveness' is me trying to protect cf. If our role is fully revealed, he would die tonight. Satisfied?


We're not trying to get you to reveal more information about yourself at this point. We're trying to get you to talk about how you think the other players are acting. Scummy? Neutral? Town? We know your feelings on Snark but not on anyone else. That's why we keep asking you to post reads on the other players.

We say you're acting aggressive *in this moment* because it's all we have to go on, because you haven't talked about anything other than this. But if you would calm down a little on that front and talk more about how everyone else is playing, and whether you think those actions are pro-town or not, etc, we would be more likely to leave that descriptor off to the side again.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby kalira » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:18 pm UTC

EBWOP: In fact, I'm going to outright say, unless you're 1) in imminent danger of being lynched, AND 2) you think it would be more worthwhile for town for you to reveal your own role (and all the risks that entails) than the risk should you be lynched, seriously, don't reveal anything else about it.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:24 pm UTC

Well, I could post reads on others, but you see, they would be forced, since as of right now, I am unsure of how to view them. They're all attacking me, you see. While normally I would scumread them for them, I am trying to eradicate that habit.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:47 pm UTC

I am absolutely flabbergasted right now. Chane, if the goal was to not get me killed tonight this whole time, I'm really not sure why you went about it in this way. Unless your goal is to actually get me killed and something in your role/win condition involves getting me night killed. Like, I really want to lynch you right now because you are super adversely affecting my ability to play and enjoy this game. But, I really do not know what that would accomplish at this point.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:51 pm UTC

bessie: I think her posts contain less actual content than people give credit for (and nothing that stands out as particularly townie or scummy for me). Also her vote on emlightened came very early in the day in my opinion but as I've learned this view is not commonly shared here so null-tell. Overall the tone of her posts seems helpful, therefore leaning slightly town.

Carlington: his post was okay given the circumstances and I appreciate that he was willing to concede his point regarding flavor. I think Town is a) more likely to make mistakes/misreads as scum would consider their language and content much more carefully and b) more willing to admit them. Again this is mainly based on my own playstyle so I'm not using it as a definite guideline. Currently looks Town but definitely needs to participate more.

Chane: I think I've defended Chane more than enough. I could defend her even more as there are some untouched aspects of her claims that I could sort of verify. FWIW I'm 98% sure that she's Town and after her reveal tomorrow I will gladly share my thought-process with all of you (the remaining 2% is if some of the flavor misleads me which could be possible). I absolutely agree though that her play-style needs to be adjusted to this forum, otherwise she'll be lynched early when there's noone there to defend her.
Ninja'd by Chane: 99.5% of being Town and agree completely with kalira. You should have stopped revealing these details a long time ago.

crucialityfactor: I didn't like his original reply to my inquiry as I specifically asked that he would not reveal anything else. A simple yes or no would have sufficed without that very emotional ranting, however I think I understand the reason behind it. His read-list seems honest, leaning Town despite lack of content.

Diemo/Madge: nothing changed since my previous stance as there was no real new content from them. Carlington claims that it's only his meta and I've conceded 1-out-of-3 on my own but the rest I still find suspicious. As I've mentioned in a previous game regarding another player, if your meta makes you look scummy maybe you should find a new meta. Hope Madge will post soon. Currently leaning Scum.

emlightened: Starting with an aside. I think there's a big difference between Snark's and Chane's list and it's basically spelled out in emlightened's first sentence. Snark is capable of forming an opinion on me because I've already provided some content and he could for example find me scummy for downplaying the possibility of an SK (like bessie mentioned). crucialityfactor hasn't posted at that time so Chane's list is completely different in that regard. Therefore I do not find it suspicious at all that emlightened didn't focus on Snark the same way. Her attack on Chane is reasonable, her role-fishing less so. Her read-list looks fine and later admits to a believable misread. Currently leaning slightly Town.

kalira: one of the only flavor-knowledgable players left in the game so it's completely understandable that she would initially focus on that aspect (I would have done the same if I have been able to play in Dollhouse). Very good irl reason for disappearing, well-thought-out replies and analysis. Some parts of her posts (not related to actual content, rather tone) give me strong townie vibes. Currently leaning Town.

mpolo: main content is the Miller claim and some fairly early reads (which is probably posted by town more often than scum who wants to wait to see the shape of the land). Admits to defend Chane due to missing a post, also there's a meta thing due to some discussion about role pm-s. Leaning Town.

Snark: impossible for me to read accurately as his style is consistent but so different. I think he's tunneling Chane and this response from him was very emotional and over-the-top:
Snark wrote:If being new gets you this kind of free pass, I'm probably going to start getting some alt accounts ready for myself and play future games that way. It would be nice to have permanent D1 lynch protection.
However there are a few posts from him that look very townie to me though I think he would be capable of making those while scum as well. Currently leaning Scum but Diemo/Snark scum-team seems unlikely, so possibly independent?

As you can see from the result (i.e. too many townies) my scumdar needs work. These opinions were formed in isolation as I originally didn't look into possible scum-pairings which I might do at a later time.

TOWN
Chane = crucialityfactor
mpolo
kalira

emlightened
bessie
Carlington

Snark
Diemo/Madge
SCUM

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 15, 2016 7:55 pm UTC

EBWOP: @crucialityfactor: I seriously doubt that Chane's role-pm (if she were a Lyncher/Assassin type) would include the name of the player besides the role-name as well. It is simply not done.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Snark » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:00 pm UTC

[quote="Sabrar"]FWIW I'm 98% sure that she's Town and after her reveal tomorrow I will gladly share my thought-process with all of you (the remaining 2% is if some of the flavor misleads me which could be possible)
....
Ninja'd by Chane: 99.5% of being Town and agree completely with kalira. You should have stopped revealing these details a long time ago/quote]
Ok, I'm treating this as I would a cop result at this point. If you say there's 199/200 chance Chane is town, then you are responsible for making other people believe it, and I will vote you if Chane turns out to not be town.

Unvote

Since I'm getting scum reads on Chane, cruciality, and Sabrar, and they all seem to be defending each other (Sabrar defending Chane in turn defending Cruciality), then either they're mostly (2-3 of them) town and I am completely screwing up this game, or they're mostly scum (2-3 of them) and I am the only sane one willing to vote Chane.

I suppose I can wait through N1 and hope me or one of them die to clear up what the crap is going because being at odds with three different players at once is not working out for me.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Snark » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:03 pm UTC

EBWOP FIXING MY BROKEN QUOTE
Sabrar wrote:FWIW I'm 98% sure that she's Town and after her reveal tomorrow I will gladly share my thought-process with all of you (the remaining 2% is if some of the flavor misleads me which could be possible)
....
Ninja'd by Chane: 99.5% of being Town and agree completely with kalira. You should have stopped revealing these details a long time ago

Ok, I'm treating this as I would a cop result at this point. If you say there's 199/200 chance Chane is town, then you are responsible for making other people believe it, and I will vote you if Chane turns out to not be town.

Unvote

Since I'm getting scum reads on Chane, cruciality, and Sabrar, and they all seem to be defending each other (Sabrar defending Chane in turn defending Cruciality), then either they're mostly (2-3 of them) town and I am completely screwing up this game, or they're mostly scum (2-3 of them) and I am the only sane one willing to vote Chane.

I suppose I can wait through N1 and hope me or one of them die to clear up what the crap is going because being at odds with three different players at once is not working out for me.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:05 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I don’t have an updated reads list yet because I’m hoping for some content from crucialityfactor, kalira, and Madge, but here’s some more observations, starting at about the middle of page 2.

Carlington, thank you for the long post. It was more than I expected. I disagree with your suspicions on kalira for focusing on flavor, because it was early and the game was still in the setup spec, flavor spec, and random voting mode (even though no one random voted). But I will be suspicious of kalira if she doesn’t post some real content soon. I agree with this regarding content:
Carlington wrote:That's fair, and I misremembered the exact wording of the flavour knowledge section of the post in the signup thread. I'm a little less anti-flavour-focus in view of having checked that, but still prefer a focus on player analysis with flavour being used to supplement it, rather than vice-versa.


emlightened- My reason for voting for emlightened was that she attacked another player and didn’t follow up after that player responded, and for lurking. Since then she has responded to Chane and she has made a long analysis post. For the first part, I really don’t like that the response to Chane included quite a bit of role fishing, which I find very suspicious. But I do like most of the analysis post and while I don’t agree with all her reads I think that they’re all reasonably presented and supported (except for the read on Snark, which I didn’t follow at all, but it looks like she corrected it later). What I don’t like is that she finishes it by throwing the question out as to whether or not we should ask Snark if he knows Sabrar’s alignment.

Sabrar- My possible 10 player setup wasn’t necessarily supposed to be a guess at this game’s setup, it was just supposed to be an example of a game where everyone has a power role. I was just trying to point out that winning will be a team effort, and that I think it’s wrong for one player to consider themselves more important than the other players. I didn’t offer my opinion on the validity of the “sort of doctor” claim and I did not ask for more role information. I don’t have any problems with the role. My suspicions are with the person making the claim.

Chane, you have been repeatedly asked for content, and you gave this response:
Chane wrote:I have provided content. I told you repeatedly, if you want more, ask me a direct questions instead of vague ones.

Here are some questions that have been directed at you. How about some answers?
bessie wrote:Chane- New to the xkcd mafia forum, do you have any experience playing mafia?

Sabrar wrote:@Chane: based on the content so far who are your best guess for the (assumed) 2 Mafia players? Why them?

Carlington wrote:Chane - I don't understand what you're doing. I'm unsure how much experience you have playing mafia in other venues - could you tell us how much experience you have? Your play seems newbie to me, but reminds me of my own newbie play as scum. As a direct question - what are your opinions on the rest of the players?

emlightened wrote:Okay, since you asked people to ask direct questions: Chane, please could you list each player and say whether you find them townie or scummy, with at least one and a half lines of reasoning each.


Chane, I know that your style is perhaps different from some of the other players, but I feel that everyone has been really trying to help you out here and that you’re not helping in return. You haven’t answered questions directed at you, and then you post this:
Chane wrote:If you give me till day 2, you'll have a reason. I can prove that I am indeed a doctor. If I can't, feel free to lynch me. Explain to me what have you got to lose? If I am scum, you lynch me tomorrow. Again, what do you have to lose?

ANSWER TRUTHFULLY OR I WILL HURT YOU.

First of all, how does one even prove they are a doctor, or a cop, or a roleblocker, or anything else? The only proof is in bold from the mod, anything else is just a claim. Second, exactly what is the question that you would like answered truthfully? How would you even know if I lie and how are you going to hurt me for it? I don’t see how this kind of threat is useful. I’m really trying to understand your scummy behavior as a difference in gameplay style but you’re making it difficult, so I will do this:

Unvote
Vote: emlightened


So Chane, you have the following choices. First, you can convince Snark you aren’t scum so he unvotes. Second, you can start contributing by helping to find scum, voting, and giving reasons for your vote. Finally, you place vote on someone that already has a vote without giving a reason, but be forewarned that if you place a save-your-ass vote without a reason to back it up I will find that very suspicious.

More later, hopefully we will hear from crucialityfactor, kalira, and Madge soon.


Fulfilled.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Snark » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:08 pm UTC

You convinced me of nothing. I'm trusting Sabrar's effective cop result on you for now and that's the reason I unvoted.

Nothing you have said or done has been helpful. You have over claimed and continued to provide no good content.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:09 pm UTC

@Chane: you're making this very difficult. Why did you have to quote the whole post just to further antagonize the others with your tone?

Chane
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:12 pm UTC

Because that's the way people play at my home site. We antagonize others to get reads from them.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:12 pm UTC

That, and Snark pissed me off.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Snark » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:13 pm UTC

Chane wrote:Because that's the way people play at my home site. We antagonize others to get reads from them.
Did they kick you out of your home site?

Or do you just find this such a fun way to play that you'd thought you'd infect and subject us to it.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:14 pm UTC

I don't know whether to vote for Chane or vote for myself at this point.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:16 pm UTC

Why is voting for yourself even an option? I'm being serious here.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:18 pm UTC

Snark wrote:
Chane wrote:Because that's the way people play at my home site. We antagonize others to get reads from them.
Did they kick you out of your home site?

Or do you just find this such a fun way to play that you'd thought you'd infect and subject us to it.


I don't see how that is your business.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby crucialityfactor » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:19 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Why is voting for yourself even an option? I'm being serious here.


Because I would be free from this ridiculousness. It was more a sarcastic/frustrated post.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:21 pm UTC

I overreveal. That's another habit from my home site where people vote you the moment you type something.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Mar 15, 2016 11:40 pm UTC

48 hour extension granted by player request and to give Madge a chance to get into the game. No further extensions will be granted today except in exceptional circumstances.

New soft deadline at 19.30 UTC, Friday 18th March.

10 players alive, 6 to hammer.

Votals:

Diemo/Madge(1): emlightened
emlightened(1): bessie

As first to reach 1 vote, if no further votes change before deadline, Madge will be lynched.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Carlington » Wed Mar 16, 2016 1:09 am UTC

God, this is a shitfight.

Because of everything today, I am currently running at a count of: 3 town confirmed or may as well be, 1 town or I'd be awfully surprised at this point, 1 fully town (me), which leaves 5 from which to pick scum.

Sadly, because of all this carrying on around Chane, I don't have enough to be reading anyone as scummy right now. My closest is Madgemo, but that's based on my experience with Diemo so I feel like it's a false read thus subject to change when I see how Madge plays it. So I mean, well in Chane for effectively bringing discussion to a halt. I don't think you're scum, but Christ is your play ever anti-town.

If it's obvious to me that some people are town, that makes it obvious to scum thus they're solid NK targets unless wine.

The extension is a godsend, I have more but bus is stopping and I need to work now, give me ~5 hours
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Carlington » Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:12 am UTC

Chane, your play reminds me of realtime online games I've played on Town of Salem. In those games the meta was incredibly entrenched and I felt that the games were reduced to massclaims and immediate logical deductions, making D1 basically the deciding day and the entire game basically a guessing game.

I enjoy forum mafia because it's so slow and considered, and because so much must be read into every word of every post. The feinting and the dancing and the swerving and the purpose loaded into every word is why I love the game. Your playstyle runs directly counter to that - and while there's an aspect of that that I appreciate (I don't think there should be enforced orthodox mafia play, how boring!), I do find it challenging since I'm unaccustomed. I feel that other players present are similarly challenged.

The take-away here is that playing like this D1 will get you lynched nine times out of ten even if you claim a bulletproof doctor with an x-shot cop and an x-shot vig. Once you flip, we'll see the truth of it; it doesn't matter, because people here value discussion and information more than just about anything. It's the currency that the game runs on. I am convinced you're town, but your play D1 in this meta-environment, if you're telling the truth, has directly given scum a free kill. Please be more careful in future games, and please understand that I'm not trying to attack you with this post, but to help you see why people are frustrated and where the disconnect is in my view.

Off break now and that took longer than planned, more in 3ish hours.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby bessie » Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:06 am UTC

Catching up on today’s posts.
Snark wrote:bessie - As townie as the day is long (and the days are moderately long right now), is a brilliant bovine MIDDLETOWN

Why Snark, I have to disagree with your read on me. I’m not a brilliant bovine; I’m obviously a lovable Labrador. Moo. Oops, I mean woof.

kalira wrote:Bessie was voting for emlightened, then attacks Chane and ends up unvoting em and voting… em. Bessie, was this a mistake? If not, please explain.

My vote was not a mistake. It was an attempt to generate some content from Chane by putting Chane in the lead in the votals (and moving emlightened to third) per Voting Rule #3:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If deadline is reached and no player has a majority of the votes, then the person with the most votes is lynched. If the votals are tied, then the player with the most who reached that total first will be lynched, unless all players have voted and exactly 2 people have been voted for. In that special case, there will be no lynch. If you don't understand this, please ask for clarification.

Like everything else I have done to try to bring Chane in to the game, it has been a total waste of time.
Sabrar wrote:bessie: I think her posts contain less actual content than people give credit for

And I have to admit I agree with this. My entire Sunday post was devoted to Chane. And what did I get for it? This. Snark and crucialityfactor, I feel your frustration.


Updated reads. Still in progress but posting what I have.

Carlington – He only made a brief check in since my last analysis, but has promised content later. Content has been light, but he gets a small allowance for RL issues, and this was known in advance. I do like what little content he has posted. Neutral, slight town lean pending promised content.

(Ninja’d, Carlington posted between the time I wrote this and the time I posted it. I will reevaluate Carlington tomorrow after he has time to make another post.)

Chane- Aggressive, insults other players, won’t answer questions, won’t give reads, what’s not to love? Until today, I have been reluctant to go after her because she’s new to xkcd and I thought she was new to mafia (she may still be newish, she never answered any of the half dozen or so questions asking about her experience so who really knows). She acts distressed because of the repeated attacks from Snark and posts this:
Chane wrote:*bangs head on the wall* The 'agressiveness' is me trying to protect cf. If our role is fully revealed, he would die tonight. Satisfied?

But a few posts later she informs us that antagonizing others is the normal mode of operation on her home site.
Chane wrote:Because that's the way people play at my home site. We antagonize others to get reads from them.

WTF? If you’re telling the truth about your home site, you should be at ease with aggressive players like Snark, and uncomfortable with all the other nice people who are trying to help you out. Strongly leaning scum.

crucialityfactor- Finally some good content! And thanks for answering my question, even if it’s a little late. Unfortunately, a lot of my read of you is intertwined with my read on Chane, because she revealed a connection to you right on page 1. My gut tells me you are somehow connected, but there is a small chance you don’t know what this is all about and she picked you at random. I just don’t know what to think because I like your content. So you are on my “Move On” list for now.

Diemo/Madge – Diemo didn’t post after my last list, and Madge has an excuse in that she is busy and probably wasn’t expecting to be called up as a replacement so soon in the game. With the extension she should have time, so I do expect something. I had a slight scum read on Diemo for the thing with the role PMs, so my read will remain slightly scummy until Madge posts.

emlightened- I posted some updated comments on emlightened earlier today. I’m OK with the analysis parts of her content but I’m not happy with the role fishing and I don’t see why this isn’t bothering more people. My gut feeling is independent.

kalira- I had a feeling that when kalira finally posted it would be a big wall-of-text. It’s hard for me to get a good read when I have to absorb all their content at once (I’m having the same issue with crucialityfactor). But because I don’t post at work I do this too so I really shouldn’t complain. I think she made a good analysis post, I agree with much of it. But I think I need some more content (by more I mean spread out over a few days and not in one massive lump) before I can make a real read. So neutral leaning slightly town.

mpolo- Light on content, but my read on him is unchanged. Town.

Sabrar- I don’t know what to say about your defense of Chane. You believe she is town and you have your reasons, and I will accept that you don’t want to discuss your reasons yet. I do wonder if your reasons are flavor based. Do you believe she’s town because it fits in with a flavor based reason? If yes, please ask yourself if perhaps you want the game to fit the flavor too much, and if it is affecting your judgment. You don’t need to respond to this in the thread, at least not today. Neutral leaning town but very uneasy about this read.

Snark- Most of his content has been about Chane, but most of the game content has been about Chane. Some others have accused him of tunneling, but she hasn’t given him any reason to back off, like by posting some reads of other players or by answering questions or by trying to generate some discussion. Strongly leaning town.


I am OK with my vote staying on emlightened for now, because don’t have a better scum read, and there’s no danger of a hammer. We have two more days and hopefully will have a lot more content before deadline.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Madge » Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:37 am UTC

OK well I haven't had time to do a proper, full read so possibly against my better judgement I'm going to post /something/ now so that way I've posted something, just in case I'm crazy busy tomorrow (NEW EPISODE OF SURVIVOR MEANS WATCH PARTY AT MADGE'S HOUSE YAY) I won't have any time till Friday.

Unfortunately it's D1 and D1 is the worst, the best part of being a replacement is not having to deal with D1.

Chane lives to see the night as far as I'm concerned. In addition to what I was saying about it being good manners to let a newbie use their night action so they feel like we're a good fun group of happy people rather than an endless source of drama, she's actually my strongest townread because the exasperated crazy behaviour is.... really townie. Townier, IMO, than someone like Bessie making the same detailed, content-ful posts they'd make whether they were scum or town.

So who is still looking for a Chane lynch today? Nobody in particular.

Chane: unfortunately we are not the place you used to play and I think everyone would appreciate you having longer posts and answering the direct questions you were asked. Otherwise I might have to go to my other heuristic of "lynch people who are being a distraction to town's progress".

OK. that's it for Chane, or this post is going to look like a witch hunt and nobody wants that.

Aside: I am completely and utterly flavour blind, so I'm not even going to try and engage with the discussion - I'll trust everyone else and try and ignore it.

Sabrar's certainty about Chane seems very, very strongly couched with the probability and everything and I wonder if it's just hyperbole; I'd put maybe a 90% of Chane being town, but that's with there being a background 70-80% chance of anyone being town.

Snark's blind reverence for the Sabrar "cop result" is weird, though. I don't think people are serious when they say 99.5% in contexts like this - or maybe Sabrar is?

That said I like Sabrar's post, particularly about Bessie's posts looking better than they are. I like Bessie as town but as scum her meta is exactly the same which terrifies me. (I think Bessie has taken the mantle of "terrifies Madge to all hell" away from USN, though I'm sure if we saw USN again I would quiver in terror). So yeah, I'm scared of Bessie because I have no idea if I should be scared of her.

Crucialityfactor is acting like I'd probably be acting if I was playing since the beginning of D1, but I often get myself lynched these days so...... maybe I should take that into account.

All in all I haven't seen enough yet to make me have any idea where to go with a vote, but I'd put Sabrar and Chane in the "live to see night fall" basket.
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Carlington » Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:21 am UTC

My bus broke down so I had some free time to stand in the rain and read properly. So, as promised: content!

Carlington wrote:Because of everything today, I am currently running at a count of: 3 town confirmed or may as well be, 1 town or I'd be awfully surprised at this point, 1 fully town (me), which leaves 5 from which to pick scum.
I have a habit of saying "confirmed town" when what I mean is "town is the only way this makes sense to me". This applies regarding Chane here.
What follows is a list, in order from town to scum roughly with one exception, of players and my thoughts on them.

mpolo, having claimed Miller right out of the gate, is my towniest read. His play hasn't given me any reason to doubt him, so unless any results come up that give me a reason to think otherwise, I'm treating him as town.

I believe that Chane and crucialityfactor are almost certainly town.

I can see no other way to make sense of the things Chane has claimed. I'm quite sure that this will have won them both the dubious honour of Best NK target, though, so it doesn't really matter how town they look. The only way I can see Chane dodging the NK is if scum decides that the benefit of the distraction she provides outweighs the drawback of her power role.
Chane: The best possible outcome you could have hoped for with your play is "NK'ed Night 2", if you're town. Give or take any other townies you bring down with you, that is.
Consider:
You're town and telling the truth - if we disbelieve you, you're lynched D1.
If we believe you, and your power is really great, scum might NK you N1.
If you survive the lynch and the NK, and you're not role blocked or in any other way unsuccessful with your target, then we believe you D2 - else we think you've lied and we lynch you.
Assuming everything else has gone perfectly to plan, scum will not let a known and confirmed power role survive N2. There's no way.

cf, given Chane's claims, must be town if Chane is telling the truth, and assuming Chane is honest town is the only way I can salvage any skerrick of sanity from this situation. I have no other real reason to doubt that cf is town in any case, so that's a safe read for now.

Sabrar clearly has some compelling reason to believe that Chane is town, which I agree with, and I like his play besides so he's up there in terms of towniness or else he's playing a good D1 as scum as far as I can see. Good amount of content, asking good questions, and I like that he's been active in prodding me to come play - in fact, I like everyone who has mentioned how quiet I've been, and I appreciate everyone's patience.

REAL-TIME LIFE COMMENTARY SPOILER:
Spoiler:
The train before mine on this line broke down so now there's two peak hour trains' worth of people in one train. I am just really not wired for this many people in this little space. Not at all, and I need to communicate this to someone, so congratulations all! What a good day. What. A. Good. Day.

Much like the physical train, and the bus I took before it, my metaphorical train of thought is kaputt. I'm just...I'm just gonna finish this post when I get home and sit down.

Okay, I'm good now.

Of course, should either of cf or especially Chane flip scum at some point, those reads will immediately change.

Snark's reads and overall play has me thinking he's town - although I obviously disagree with his conclusion that Chane, cf, and Sabrar are scum. I'm not used to his playstyle - if I have ever played with him it was a while ago, I haven't played with him much - but I enjoy it, oddball as it is. So he gets "fun to play with" points for that, if not any town or scum ones. He's generating good amounts of content, he's putting ideas out and scumhunting and making a genuine effort to figure out new and novel potential ways to catch scum, and overall just looking beautifully towny. Four for you.

I'm inserting a break in the list here, because the list of players is very clearly divided into two groups in my mind. Above this break, excepting mpolo, the reads are based on believing Chane. If Chane is proven wrong in any way, or I am convinced not to believe her, then take mpolo from the top of this half, add him to to the top of the lower half, then reverse the lower half and finally switch the upper and lower halves. I'll diagram this in a spoiler at the end of my post for clarity.

Lower half:

bessie clocks in at the top here, astute observations and content aplenty. Her reads and her setup spec have been on point imo, and were it not for all this business with Chane, she'd be at the top of my town list. I have to dock a few town points just for the fact that I always think bessie is towny, though.

kalira would be a solid second place on my town scum list, only really losing out because of what I said earlier about the flavourdump at the beginning. I don't necessarily think that that came from a place of malice or deliberate obfuscation, but it added a lot of information that acted to confound a lot of things, I think, without clarifying any.

emlightened sits here. Her content has picked up a bit, which I appreciate as I have the impression that she's always fairly quiet D1. I seem to read her as scum a lot, so I'm trying to account for that in my reading of her in this game, but I totes see what bessie means with the rolefishing and trying to publicly puzzle out people's powers. On the other hand, I feel like she does that in a lot of games as well, so maybe meta explains it?

Exception:
Carlington wrote:Sadly, because of all this carrying on around Chane, I don't have enough to be reading anyone as scummy right now. My closest is Madgemo, but that's based on my experience with Diemo so I feel like it's a false read thus subject to change when I see how Madge plays it.
What I meant here was that I read Diemo as fairly scummy, all things considered - but everything he was doing matches my experience in games with him. Ultimately, I'd probably vote him here anyway - but now Madge has taken over, and I've played enough games that she's replaced into to have a handle on how she handles it, so I'm going to wait and see. I've previewed this post enough to know I've been ninja'd by her, and I like what I'm seeing so far, pending a full read through.

Okay, that was about three hours' work, give or take. Have at! I'll be around for a few hours again.
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:49 am UTC

Ha ha ha. I am not worried about being NKed. It's being lynched that I am worried about. And yes, whether my partner uses his ability or not, I don't mind dying really.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Carlington » Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:35 am UTC

Oh! I forgot my diagrams

Currently:
Town:
mpolo
Chane
crucialityfactor
Sabrar
Snark
bessie
kalira
emlightened
:Scum

Should Chane be lying:
Town:
mpolo
bessie
kalira
Snark
emlightened
crucialityfactor
Chanel
:Scum


Also Chane, for reals, you're still giving away information about your role? Seriously? Please stop. (he says, knowing full well that a good half the players have tried it and failed to achieve anything but plowing on nonetheless.)
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:33 pm UTC

bessie wrote: Do you believe she’s town because it fits in with a flavor based reason? If yes, please ask yourself if perhaps you want the game to fit the flavor too much, and if it is affecting your judgment. You don’t need to respond to this in the thread, at least not today.
I will reply tomorrow then.

Madge wrote:I don't think people are serious when they say 99.5% in contexts like this - or maybe Sabrar is?
I've used hyperbole before in similar circumstances but this time it's serious. It would be around 85% if not for the fact that she claimed to be able to prove herself D2. In my opinion scum won't ever make such statements on D1 unless threatened by an imminent lynch as it's basically just giving up at that point. There is a distinct possibility of Chane being a cult-leader and willing to be lynched D2 after she converted someone, however it still seems unlikely that she would behave this way.
I honestly haven't considered the possibility of Chane being a Jester, if so then it's a brilliant play but I still don't feel bad for defending her.

@Carlington: you left me out from the second list.

Addendum to my analysis re Snark
Sabrar wrote:Currently leaning Scum but Diemo/Snark scum-team seems unlikely, so possibly independent?
OTOH if scum don't have day-chat (which I think is possible but not likely) then I can totally imagine the above pair.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Carlington » Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:57 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:Should Chane be lying:
Town:
mpolo
bessie
kalira
Snark
emlightened
Sabrar
crucialityfactor
Chane
:Scum

Oh, I did leave you out, Sabrar.
Fixt in that quote. (Also fixt the autocorrect changing Chane to Chanel. I had caught it every other time but missed that one. Sorry Chane.)
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Chane » Wed Mar 16, 2016 1:13 pm UTC

Go ahead then, kill this doctor. If it's for town, this doctor doesn't mind.

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Re: Wheel of Time - The Horn of Valere (D1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:01 pm UTC

@mpolo: Could you post your updated reads on the players?


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