Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Game Over

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Carlington » Wed May 11, 2016 1:35 am UTC

I meant Ninjad by Sabrar. Go me.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Suzaku » Wed May 11, 2016 2:11 am UTC

Suzaku, I think you'll find :P
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Carlington » Wed May 11, 2016 5:04 am UTC

-.-

Sometimes, I worry about myself.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 5:09 am UTC

Everyone targeting the same person might still be useful and I've thought about it as well, if I have the time I will analyze it but it's a lot more complicated now.

@Mikemk: please read the game Suzaku linked to and perhaps some others as well. Please submit your night action to mpolo in the form of "Investigate: Snark".

@Carlington: why wouldn't the time-stamp method be useful?

Can No Lynch get hammer?

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby mpolo » Wed May 11, 2016 6:14 am UTC

Vote Count:
No Lynch (4): Madge, Snark, emlightened, Carlington

Seven to end the day early (or hammer somebody).

Mikemk, I think you wanted to vote, but it is not boldfaced, so I didn't want to assume anything. Please put votes that I need to count on their own line, and boldfaced.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 7:15 am UTC

@Snark: could you please give us your actual reasons why you disagree with the time-stamp method?

@all: please don't vote anymore for No Lynch, it's got sufficient majority and we want to give everyone the chance to get their night actions in.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Carlington » Wed May 11, 2016 7:50 am UTC

I can unvote NL if need be until everyone has reported in.

The timestamp method is still fine, but it was unnecessary to begin with, I only liked it because it seemed like a neat pRNG that worked well for exactly ten people. With 11, though, it's strictly worse than just following signup order. If we want to introduce randomness we could use random.org to shuffle it probably, but really signup order should be fine because mpolo would already have shuffled the roles well.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 11, 2016 7:53 am UTC

Action submitted to investigate mikemk.

Some logic behind everyone targeting the same player:

1) As already pointed out, it helps determine if two scum players are coaligned.
2) It removes one sanity from your possibilities. This is the same as any other result though.
3) If the targeted player flips, we now know the alignment of them and anyone else we subsequently target.
4) If the targeted player flips, we reduce each players sanity to one of two.
5) If we did this two nights in a row and got two different results, we could lynch one and would know everyone's sanity and therefore reduce the possible scum options. Unfortunately, so would scum, so sane and insane cops would die to night kills.
6) We would only get results on 5 of 12 players.
7) Possible options if we kept doing this are 4 or 5 of the same alignment, i.e. town, plus possibly one scum, or 2 of one and three of the other. The latter would be a likely loss for town, the former not a guaranteed win.
8) Each night we would get one result on someone else, unless scum killed the target.

I haven't thought too hard about the current plan, but I think at least for one night it is beneficial. We could mix the two as well - N1 as planned, N2 reversed, N3 the same etc. That way we get results on everyone, and then start determining co-alignments.

Another option which is halfway between the two is investigate in pairs, e.g. N1 1 and 2 target 3, 3 and 4 target 5 etc. Then use different pairs the next night. This should help us determine sanity and some co-alignments, plus get results on others. However, I don't have time now to think that one through.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 8:37 am UTC

@Carlington: Claiming in list-order is fine once but we want to avoid using the same order every time as theoretically scum could be 10-12 on the list and could adjust their false-claims to cause the most confusion. Random.org does not work as we have no third party to impartially provide a truly random result.

@jimbob:
a) If we all target the same player good scum will never kill him as it would give us too much information.
b) I don't think we can afford to lynch him ourselves as it deprives us of 1 full night's worth of result if he's town.
c) We don't have the time to do this multiple times either. Might still be possible to do once.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 9:20 am UTC

Boring math regarding everyone investigating the same player N1 (named X from here on) with the new setup:
Spoiler:
0. X will also investigate someone (or pretend) but it's irrelevant for this discussion.
1. Scum won't kill X as explained before.
2. Therefore we will get 10 results.
3. If X is scum we will get 8 true + 2 false results.
4. If X is town we will get 7 true + 3 false results.
5. Unfortunately in the latter case there are 2 more possibilites:
a) X is sane/naive, meaning we would have 3 town + 4 scum + 3 false results
b) X is insane/paranoid, meaning we would have 4 town + 3 scum + 3 false results
6. Situation A: we get 5 town + 5 scum. Possibilities:
a) X is town, sane/naive, -> 2 scum pretended to get town, 1 pretended to get scum. # of possible scenarios: 2*[5!/22]*[5!/22] = 1800
b) X is town, insane/paranoid, -> same situation just reversed, same result:
c) X is scum, -> 1 scum pretended to get town, 1 pretended to get scum. # of possible scenarios: [5!/22]*[5!/22] = 900
Total # of possible scenarios: 4,500
7. Situation B: we get 6 town + 4 scum (6 scum + 4 town is the same). Possibilities:
a) X is town, sane/naive, -> all 3 scum pretended to get town. # of possible scenarios: 2*[6!/(2*3!)]*[4!/22] = 720
b) X is town, insane/paranoid, -> 2 scum pretended to get town, 1 pretended to get scum. # of possible scenarios: 2*[6!/23]*[4!/2] = 2160
c) X is scum, -> other 2 scum pretended to get town. # of possible scenarios: [6!/23]*[4!/2] = 1080
Total # of possible scenarios: 3,960
8. Situation C: we get 7 town + 3 scum (7 scum + 3 town is the same). Only way that can happen is if X is town, insane/paranoid, all 3 scum pretended to get town. # of possible scenarios: 2*[7!/(22*3!)]*[3!/2] = 1,080 possible scenarios
Conclusion: still worth it. I would strongly suggest to do this for N1, claim-order is same as sign-up list, tomorrow we can go back to investigating the player below us on the list. I volunteer for tribute. :P
Also someone please check my reasoning/math (optimally at least 3 more players).

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Snark » Wed May 11, 2016 9:47 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Snark: could you please give us your actual reasons why you disagree with the time-stamp method?
I don't want to break a long standing tradition of not being able to get random numbers in the mafia game. It's usually sign-up order and letting that change from dethy to dethy is giving scum a chance to game the order whenever signup order isn't advantageous to them. Starting D2 everyone can put down a town to scum list and we use the list of whoever's NK'd.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 10:04 am UTC

@Snark: thanks for the reply, that's a valid reason. However I don't like your idea of basing the claims on town-to-scum lists from D2 on, as that gives more power to scum for manipulating the order.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Snark » Wed May 11, 2016 10:09 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Snark: thanks for the reply, that's a valid reason. However I don't like your idea of basing the claims on town-to-scum lists from D2 on, as that gives more power to scum for manipulating the order.
Gives another thing to look at when people are killed, and it'll be a nice tie breaker when trying to decide between 2 of equal scum-probability on a lynching day.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Snark » Wed May 11, 2016 10:11 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Boring math...
The logic and groups seems correct, but I don't have the time to be able to educate myself and check the math. I also would like to know what the average number of scenarios is after a night of investigate-the-person-below-me. They'd be wildly different so you'd probably want to do 3-5 sample ones to get a decent idea, and I can't imagine they'd be easy to calculate.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 11, 2016 11:50 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Conclusion: still worth it. I would strongly suggest to do this for N1, claim-order is same as sign-up list, tomorrow we can go back to investigating the player below us on the list. I volunteer for tribute. :P

I don't mind which of the two approaches we do, but given that several of us have already submitted actions, I'd suggest we decide sooner rather than later, as worst case is that some people do one, and some the other.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 12:01 pm UTC

Snark wrote:I also would like to know what the average number of scenarios is after a night of investigate-the-person-below-me.

Good idea, began to do this manually as it should fit in an Excel-table (possible scenarios after N1 kill = 11!/(24 * 3!) = 415,800 without taking into account any investigation results), unfortunately found it too tedious. Is someone else inclined to program this? :roll:

@jimbob: very true, ideally we should decide it latest tomorrow.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 1:01 pm UTC

Managed to get results for a small portion of one randomly chosen scenario, numbers indicate no significant difference between the two approaches. Would be more comfortable if I had precise results. Also my method makes building the database afterwards much easier as it categorizes players independently from the others. Still if majority goes for person-below-me I won't push for it anymore.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby adnapemit » Wed May 11, 2016 1:12 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Another option which is halfway between the two is investigate in pairs, e.g. N1 1 and 2 target 3, 3 and 4 target 5 etc. Then use different pairs the next night. This should help us determine sanity and some co-alignments, plus get results on others. However, I don't have time now to think that one through.

I am not certain but this could be the worst option or the best option. Investigating one person gains a clearer view of sanity and who has matching results but leaves a lot of people not investigated. After 2 nights the pairs option would be almost the same as 2 nights of investigating the person below and then the person below that. The only difference would be a couple results caused by peoples deaths.

Sabrar's maths for all investigating the same player:After confusing myself several times, the maths looks correct although the total number of possibilities would be further reduced by the 11th result.(I'm not really good with probability so don't take my word for it)
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby adnapemit » Wed May 11, 2016 1:22 pm UTC

adnapemit wrote:Sabrar's maths for all investigating the same player:After confusing myself several times, the maths looks correct although the total number of possibilities would be further reduced by the 11th result.(I'm not really good with probability so don't take my word for it)
Actually just ignore anything I say involving maths.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Mikemk » Wed May 11, 2016 5:12 pm UTC

What is "claiming"?
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 5:22 pm UTC

If you're a Member of the Baker Street Irregulars you have the ability each night to investigate one other player by pm-ing the mod in the form shown in this post. By consensus, during the first night you should be investigating Snark. At the end of the night you will receive the result of your investigation from the mod saying either that Snark is Town or Scum. Claiming means posting this result that you received privately in this public thread so we have more information to work with and it should be done early in the day.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby dimochka » Wed May 11, 2016 9:42 pm UTC

Well I'm glad my idea wasn't completely shut down and people actually considered it. FOS anyone who gives me townie points for this, because it means nothing for my alignment :D

IFF we are going to go with the "target one person" thing, I'm fine with being investigated. And we need to decide fast. Right now I went for the person below me. I almost feel that we should stick to that original strategy simply because I'm worried some people won't change in time.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby mpolo » Thu May 12, 2016 6:11 am UTC

We are still at 4 votes. Most (but not all) night actions have been tentatively sent in. If people are satisfied with discussion, vote to end the day, and get the rest of the actions in, I could probably get this into day 2 by Friday midday before I am away for the weekend, thus giving you people something to talk about, rather than sitting around waiting for Tuesday. But I'm also O.K. with waiting until Tuesday…
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Madge » Thu May 12, 2016 6:18 am UTC

I'm not OK with Tuesday. I want day two NAO!!!!

Everyone, hammer NL, submit your night actions, and let's do some LOGIC

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 12, 2016 7:08 am UTC

Given the low activity, early D2 makes sense. Also the possibility of reaching a consensus about changing the investigation method seems slim to none so we should probably stick with below-on-the-list order for now.

Players who claimed to have their actions already sent in:
Carlington
dimochka
jimbob
Madge
Sabrar
Suzaku

Players who said they were fine with the method but didn't state explicitly to have sent it in (all with a single post so far):
Diemo
emlightened (99% to have action sent in based on No Lynch vote)
Esthr

Rest of the players:
adnapemit (almost certainly ok with method, probably already sent in action)
Mikemk (seems new to Mafia overall)
Snark (same as emlightened)

So I would like to ask Diemo, Esthr and Mikemk to a) send your action in if you haven't already done so and b) vote for No Lynch afterwards. That should give us majority. Obviously point a) applies to everyone else as well.

Spoiler:
Empty quotes for the above 3 players so they get a notification
Diemo wrote:...

Esthr wrote:...

Mikemk wrote:...

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby adnapemit » Thu May 12, 2016 11:12 am UTC

I confirm I submitted to investigate emlightened.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Esthr » Thu May 12, 2016 12:34 pm UTC

Whoops, meant to post this yesterday. I submitted Dimochka as my investigation target.

Vote: No Lynch

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Mikemk » Thu May 12, 2016 1:47 pm UTC

I've played the tabletop variety.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 12, 2016 2:12 pm UTC

@Mikemk: good to know you're not completely new.

If no significant discussion occurs until tomorrow morning, I will hammer No Lynch so we can continue playing.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Carlington » Thu May 12, 2016 2:52 pm UTC

Unvote

There's enough votes, and I'm not comfortable with the hammer being dropped yet. Diemo has posted exactly once, and I'd rather the day not end until we know he's submitted.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby emlightened » Thu May 12, 2016 11:26 pm UTC

I confirm I'm investigating Diemo.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby dimochka » Fri May 13, 2016 12:22 am UTC

Not hammering for the exact same reason - waiting on Diemo's response.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby mpolo » Fri May 13, 2016 6:20 am UTC

5 Votes for No-Lynch, seven required. All actions have been submitted, and all players have sent at least one PM to the mod since the start of the game.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 13, 2016 6:41 am UTC

Thank you!

Vote: No Lynch

Please someone hammer soon. With no actual game-related content in the last 24 hours it makes no sense to wait another 4 days twiddling our thumbs.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy²

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri May 13, 2016 7:20 am UTC

I guess I could try to come up with some sort of conversational topic, but I think it's probably just easier to

Vote No Lynch

so that we can get some results.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 2

Postby mpolo » Fri May 13, 2016 10:39 am UTC

The investigations of the Irregulars proceded apace. While some of them were certainly less than trustworthy, they are certainly good boys.

Unfortunately, tragedy struck early on in the investigation. Not even an hour had gone by in this costume party before a body wearing a bunny mask was found garotted in the hallway. It was young Walter Nesbitt, and when I heard of his demise, my blood ran cold.


Suzaku has been killed. He was a Baker Street Irregular.

11 players remain, 6 to lynch (or no-lynch)


Let's try for the Tuesday deadline from before, but you can ask for an extension if needed.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 2

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 13, 2016 11:17 am UTC

I've received Scum on adnapemit.

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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri May 13, 2016 11:42 am UTC

I've received Scum on mikemk.

Care to respond mikemk?
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 2

Postby Carlington » Fri May 13, 2016 12:12 pm UTC

I thought we were claiming in the order of the player list? I guess the agreement on that front wasn't as firm. As long as we are breaking ranks, though, I got a result of scum on Suzaku.
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Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri May 13, 2016 12:26 pm UTC

Sorry, you're right Carlington, I forgot about what was discussed re. claiming order, and I just wanted to get my claim out there. Everybody else should probably go with what we sort of agreed.
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