Re: Baker Street Irregulars Dethy² - Game Over

[mpolo]

Mod prod sent to Diemo

[Diemo]

Scum on elightened

[dimochka]

..

Your turn! And then adnapemit.

[emlightened]

Scum on adnapemit.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Scum, scum everywhere!

...

Your turn.

[adnapemit]

Town on Sabrar.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I think that's everyone. I'll post my conclusions and suggested investigation options this evening at some point. Anybody else's thoughts are also appreciated obviously.

[Esthr]

So at least one of {emlightened, diemo, jimbobmacdoodle} is scum. Is it worth concentrating our investigation on these three or do we target, say, the player two spots below us?

For D4 claim order, I think we can just pick someone in the middle to start and go down the list. To balance any advantage this gives, we can reverse this order for D5.

[Madge]

OK I've made a chart, and based on the chart, Diemo has to be a "useful" cop (useful = sane or insane).

Diemo investigated emlightened and jimbob, so we know they are of different alignments to one another (OR, Diemo is scum - shoot, didn't consider that until after I'd written most of my post).

jimbob: I assume you'll confirm this, I may have screwed up my charting so I don't want people to rely on me.

Remind me - we've got 11 cops (excluding N1's death - sorry Suzaku) - so we have 8 town and 3 scum, 2 of each cop type.

I think we need to have half of us investigate emlightened and half jimbob, and then swap tomorrow. The downside with this is scum probably won't kill either of them, like, ever, since it means that they're trading (since one has to be scum, once they reveal which is town, we know the other is scum, so they get voted out by us). So we only need to work out the actual alignment of one of them, as this will let us automatically know the other. So I think it might actually be a waste to investigate either of them, as long as their cops are still alive.

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like esthr and dimochka have only been investigated once each, so I feel like we should make two people investigate each of them to be guaranteed a result, and perhaps randomly distribute the rest of the investigations? (I would say by having each person just choose based on random.org, but we probably don't want to give scum that freedom).

This is all just spitballing, I haven't really thought in depth about the strategy of the dethy, I half expect we can kind of walk backwards into it and manage to do an OK job with just what we get at random.

Claim order for tomorrow - do we want to have each person post a list from random.org? Do we want to just use the timestamp of the day start post as a seed? I feel like because one of emlightened or jimbob or diemo are certainly scum, we should make those three claim first in any order, so that way scum has to claim in the first three.

edit: ninja, glad to see my conclusions were reached independantly so I'm not a raving moron

[Mikemk]

@Diemo, investigate yourself, as that'll tell us whether you're sane or insane. Or investigate anyone who's confirmed town - adnapemit , Mikemk, Snark, Madge, and Carlington. I suppose you could also investigate Sabrar or Suzaku.
Everyone else, I suggest investigating Diemo, as that would tell us if he's lying or not.

Vote: No lynch

[Mikemk]

I am investigating Diemo

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Ok, here's my summary of the basic results and their basic implications (excluding my own knowledge of my alignment). It doesn't indicate secondary implications (e.g. as already pointed out, at least one of {emlightened, Diemo, me} are scum). The numbers below the columns are the number of people possible in each category versus the number that there should be. For the purposes of this, I have assumed Suzaku to have been the Deputy for reasons as detailed earlier. I also have avoided including what I know about my own alignment, but everyone should be able to piece together extra information for themselves through their own knowledge. Please point out if I have missed anything or made any mistakes.

Unfortunately, with only one guaranteed useful cop (or scum), we can't draw too many conclusions at this point, I think. Hopefully tomorrow will bring us more info. It's also worth pointing out that only 4 people can be the 2 naive cops. In the event that we can somehow narrow this down further, we have guaranteed town. However, this might not be possible, if at least one scum is pretending to be naive.

Code: Select all

Name            N1                   N2                      Results on Sane Insane Naive Paranoid Scum Deputy
Sabrar          Scum on adnapemit    Dead (targeted Dimochka)Scum, Town             X              X    x
adnapemit       Town on emlightened  Town on Sabrar          Town, Scum      X            X             x
emlightened     Scum on Diemo        Scum on adnapemit       Town, Scum             X                   x
Diemo           Town on jimbob       Scum on emlightened     Scum, Scum             X     X             x
jimbobmacdoodle Scum on mikemk       Scum on Diemo           Town, Town             X                   x
Mikemk          Town on jimbob       Town on Snark           Scum, Town                   X             x
Snark           Town on Madge        Town on Mikemk          Town, Scum                   X             x
Madge           Scum on Carlington   Scum on Snark           Town, Scum             X                   x
Carlington      Scum on Suzaku       Scum on Madge           Scum, Town X           X                   x
Suzaku          Dead (targeted Esthr)-                       Scum       X    X      X     X        X    Yes
Esthr           Town on dimochka     Town on Carlington      Scum                         X             x
Dimochka        Scum on Sabrar       Scum on Esthr           Town       X           X                   x
                                                                        9/2  10/2   4/2   6/2      10/3 1/1


Now, what to do with these results? I was hoping for more useful cops being available, but that hasn't happened. Unfortunately, I've not been able to focus and draw any real conclusions from this owing to being ill. If anybody else has any suggestions, I'll gladly listen, otherwise I'll try to come back to this tomorrow.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Ninja'ed by mikemk - rule 5 states that players cannot investigate themselves (otherwise everyone would do that N1 and narrow down their sanities to 1 in 2). Similarly, he can't target dead people, for the same reasoning. Please go and read the rules in the first post.

How would investigating Diemo tell us if he is lying?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

EBWOP: Also, how are adnapemit, Mikemk, Snark, Madge, and Carlington all confirmed town? I don't think that makes any sense.

[Mikemk]

Similarly, he can't target dead people, for the same reasoning.

adnapemit has already investigated a dead person.

How would investigating Diemo tell us if he is lying?

If everyone investigates him, it would confirm that either he's scum (in which case it doesn't matter if he's lying), or em/jim are scum

EBWOP: Also, how are adnapemit, Mikemk, Snark, Madge, and Carlington all confirmed town? I don't think that makes any sense.

Well, The scum is one of the three already listed, and there's only one scum. As the only states are scum and town, logically if you're not scum, you must be town.

[Esthr]

There are 3 scum in this game, so no one is confirmed town yet. Also, adnapemit got a result because Sabrar was still alive when he was targeted. At this point, we cannot target Suzaku or Sabrar.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

How would investigating Diemo tell us if he is lying?

If everyone investigates him, it would confirm that either he's scum (in which case it doesn't matter if he's lying), or em/jim are scum

I'm not seeing how everyone investigating him confirms him as scum or not - we will get some scum results from the paranoid people, some town results from the naive people, some scum/town results from the sane/insane cops, depending on his alignment, and whatever results scum decide to post on him. As far as I can see, until we know for certain the sanity of either an insane or sane cop, or until enough people have been ruled out from any given alignment, we cannot say for sure what people's results mean. We can draw a few conclusions, but I don't think guaranteed alignment is one of them yet.

If you're sure that us all investigating Diemo will confirm him one way or the other, could you please post your logic.

[Esthr]

Thinking about it, I am much more comfortable with continuing our current strategy of spreading our targets evenly. We know either emlightened, diemo, or jimbob is scum, but we have no information on the other 2 scum. We cannot afford to concentrate our investigations on just those 3.

I propose that we simply target the player two spots below on the list, and claim in the following order.

mikemk investigates madge
snark investigates carlington
madge investigates esthr
carlington investigates dimochka
I investigate adnapemit
dimochka investigates emlightened
adnapemit investigates diemo
emlightened investigates jimbobmacdoodle
diemo investigates mikemk
jimbobmacdoodle investigates snark

[Diemo]

So, dethy is a logic game, and we don't have enough information yet. I think that we should spread out the investigation results - this gives us more information if we can work out the alignments.

I don't think that we are going to catch all of the scum by investigating one target. It is also not going to guarantee catching scum, and probably wont give us enough information to work out alignments.

I concur with everyone investigating the person twice below them, and suggest that everyone post a town to scum list. This can be used as the claim order tomorrow (the list of whoever died).

[Diemo]

[url]
Town
------------------------These are all pretty intechangable
dimochka
Adnapemit
Carlington
Madge
Snark
Madge
--------------------------
emlightened
jimbob
Mikemk.
Scum
[/url]

Mikemk seems really scummy. But what really pinged me was this:

Or investigate anyone who's confirmed town - adnapemit , Mikemk, Snark, Madge, and Carlington.

There is no way we know that many town.

[Carlington]

I'm not sure I like deciding claim order by using the town to scum list of the person who dies overnight. It's too easy for scum to kill whoever posts the town to scum list that has them as towniest so they get to claim last. Especially in a scenario like this, scum would want to post a town scum list very early, pointing out that the town part of the list is broadly interchangeable and putting their other scummate near the top in the hope that people will follow suit because the ordering of the town part is mostly arbitrary.

[Madge]

I'm with Carlington; that said, giving scum a reason to kill someone other than the usefulness of their results probably can't hurt.

I think our triad-with-a-certain-scummer in it should be the first to claim (in whichever order they come online), but I'm not sure what order for everyone else to claim in.

[mpolo]

Votes: No-Lynch (1): Mikemk

Currently only a couple of the night actions are in. Is the Monday deadline going to work with the weekend activity lull?

[Madge]

I will send in an investigation according to this list:

mikemk investigates madge
snark investigates carlington
madge investigates esthr
carlington investigates dimochka
I investigate adnapemit
dimochka investigates emlightened
adnapemit investigates diemo
emlightened investigates jimbobmacdoodle
diemo investigates mikemk
jimbobmacdoodle investigates snark

[Carlington]

Confirming that I'll investigate dimochka

[Carlington]

Okay I need to write this as I go and try to logic through it. My underlying assumption is that there's only one scum in the three, other situations are too unclear to analyse.

If Diemo is scum, he can kill either jimbob or emlightened and "confirm" himself as in/sane. In this case, both jimbob and emlightened are paranoid, so we don't gain information from their cops regardless, or else sane, and thus Mikemk and/or adnapemit are scum.

If jimbob is scum then Diemo is insane and emlightened cannot be sane, and vice versa if emlightened is scum then Diemo is sane and jimbob cannot be sane.

Assuming only one of the three is scum, I think jimbob and emlightened should cop one another tonight. If Diemo is scum then their results tell us whether they are paranoid or sane. If either of jimbob or emlightened is scum, then the other ought to get a result that tells them whether they're insane or paranoid. In any case, we learn at minimum one alignment this way. The only thing I can't figure out is claim order.

If everyone else follows the two below plan, then jimbob is investigated by emlightened is investigated by Dimochka is investigated by me is investigated by Snark and we should claim in that order (jimbob first and follow the chain to Snark last) with Madge, Esthr and adnapemit claiming separately.

... I think.

[Carlington]

If Diemo is scum then jimbob and emlightened's results tell us whether they both are paranoid or sane.

[adnapemit]

I will be using the two below method and investigating Diemo.

Okay I need to write this as I go and try to logic through it. My underlying assumption is that there's only one scum in the three, other situations are too unclear to analyse.

But still quite possible. All three of them being scum is quite unlikely as they would be unnecessarily making one of themselves a target. However two of them is possible with either Diemo being paired with emlightened or jimbob.
However I think jimbob investigating emlightened would still work with determining sanity if two of the three are scum and might be a good idea.

[Snark]

I propose that we simply target the player two spots below on the list, and claim in the following order.

mikemk investigates madge
snark investigates carlington
madge investigates esthr
carlington investigates dimochka
Esthr investigates adnapemit
dimochka investigates emlightened
adnapemit investigates diemo
emlightened investigates jimbobmacdoodle
diemo investigates mikemk
jimbobmacdoodle investigates snark

I'm good with this. I'm assuming we'll reverse this claim order for D5 unless we have more info about scum %s and can make the most liikely scum claim first.

I will be using the two below method and investigating Diemo.

Okay I need to write this as I go and try to logic through it. My underlying assumption is that there's only one scum in the three, other situations are too unclear to analyse.

But still quite possible. All three of them being scum is quite unlikely as they would be unnecessarily making one of themselves a target. However two of them is possible with either Diemo being paired with emlightened or jimbob.
However I think jimbob investigating emlightened would still work with determining sanity if two of the three are scum and might be a good idea.

This seems convoluted and doesn't take into account if two of them are scum. Let's wait a day til we actually have an idea what's going on to try to do tricky stuff with targeting. I feel like we've still gotten nowhere.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Let's look at the possibilities based on Carlington's suggestion:

1) Nobody is scum - not possible, since either Diemo is lying scum, or emlightened and I are on different teams.
2) One is scum:
--a1) emlightened is scum. I get Scum result on emlightened. Implies I must be paranoid. Diemo is sane.
--a2) emlightened is scum. I get Town result on emlightened. Implies I must be insane. Diemo is sane.
--b1) I am scum. emlightened gets Scum result on me. Implies emlightened is paranoid. Diemo is insane.
--b2) I am scum. emlightened gets Town result on me. Implies emlightened is insane. Diemo is insane.
--c1) Diemo is scum. I get Town result on emlightened. emlightened gets Town result on me. That means both of us are sane.
--c2) Diemo is scum. I get Town result on emlightened. emlightened gets Scum result on me. That means I am sane, emlightened is paranoid.
--c3) Diemo is scum. I get Scum result on emlightened. emlightened gets Town result on me. That means I am paranoid, emlightened is sane.
--c4) Diemo is scum. I get Scum result on emlightened. emlightened gets Scum result on me. That means we are both paranoid.
3) Two are scum:
--a1) emlightened is scum. Diemo is scum. I get Town result on emlightened. Implies I am insane.
--a2) emlightened is scum. Diemo is scum. I get Scum result on emlightened. Implies I am sane or paranoid.
--b) emlightened is scum. I am scum. Impossible, since Diemo would have had to have lied.
--c1) Diemo is scum. I am scum. emlightened gets Town result on me. Implies emlightened is insane.
--c2) Diemo is scum. I am scum. emlightened gets Scum result on me. Implies emlightened is sane or paranoid.
4) All three of us are scum. In this case, the results we publish will be pretty irrelevant, as we would co-ordinate our results to look like one of the above cases.

I think that assuming there is only one scum amongst us three is dangerous, as it could lead to making false conclusions about people's sanity/alignment based on the results. Still, I can see the benefit, and it fits with my earlier theory that those with matching results should target those with mismatching results. I'm happy to claim first as well, but I'm also open to others' suggestions. I will provisionally submit my action for tonight to target emlightened. I agree that everyone else targeting the person two below them is fine.

Ninja'ed by Snark. Given that the only difference in the two plans is where my action goes, I'll do what the majority suggest, especially as my alignment is one of those in question by a lot of people.

[mpolo]

At least two actions are still missing at this point. If that's still the case tomorrow morning, I would probably automatically extend a day.

[dimochka]

one of those was me; just submitted. i'm not 100% sure on some of the analysis that i've seen so i'm gonna try to run through it today but for now i'm completely fine with the current plan.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

To me, it's still unclear what the current plan is (for me). Which do you prefer of who I target?

[Mikemk]

I think everyone's going with Madge's list.

[Madge]

For the record it wasn't my list, I just re-posted it, but yes, that's my understanding too.

[mpolo]

I'm going to grant an extension based on a request in PM until this afternoon (about 10–12 hours, depending on when I get in). Sending prods to those who have no action in.

[mpolo]

As the gathering continued, young Nigel Crowe seems to have become distracted and wandered away. It wasn't for some days afterwards that we found him dead in the moors, clearly a victim of foul play. However, the investigations of the others seemed to be bearing fruit.

Diemo has been killed. He was a Baker Street Irregular.

(Technically speaking, he didn't send in his action on time, hence the flavor, but since he had been chosen by scum for death, I didn't want to hold the others up.)

9 players remain, five to take action. Tentative deadline

[dimochka]

are we claiming in the order in which the list on D3 was put together?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I'm willing to start, as that seemed to be one of the options yesterday, though I won't object if others think that emlightened should claim first. If I claim first, emlightened should then claim next since one of us is clearly scum. I'll wait for a couple of hours, or until two or three people say one way or the other before claiming.

If I claim first, I'd recommend emlightened then follow the order in the agreed action list.

[Mikemk]

[url]
Town
------------------------These are all pretty intechangable
dimochka
Adnapemit
Carlington
Madge
Snark
Madge
--------------------------
emlightened
jimbob
Mikemk.
Scum
[/url]

Mikemk seems really scummy. But what really pinged me was this:

Or investigate anyone who's confirmed town - adnapemit , Mikemk, Snark, Madge, and Carlington.

There is no way we know that many town.

Diemo seemed to think emlightened, jimbob, and I were scum, so us three can claim first. I think it's odd that he said there's no way we know 5 people are town, when he marked 6 as town

town on Madge.