Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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bessie
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Fri Feb 10, 2017 4:28 am UTC

Some things I’m thinking about.

Recruits. By my count, everyone could potentially belong to a faction by now. Some recruits possibly failed. Why?

Black: Jude, Black TBD, Black TBD
Suian: Suian TBD, Madge, N1 recruit TBD, N2 recruit TBD
Elaida: SirGabriel, ahippo, N1 Recruit TBD, N3 recruit TBD
Unaligned: Diemo

TBD: bessie, Carlington, dimochka, Gopher of Pern, matt96, mpolo, Sabrar


Sabrar vs. matt96. If SirGabriel is telling the truth about his night results, Sabrar or matt is scum. Team Elaida has not yet placed any votes. If either Sabrar or matt is on Team Elaida, Team Elaida should be voting for the other guy because they would trust SirGabriel to be telling the truth.

Ter’angreal. No one claimed they received one last night. I’m not convinced that these are good anyway, because I don’t know who is giving them out. I know Jude had one, but it was the source of his power, not an extra object he could use instead of his power. Madge claimed she could use hers instead of her power. Sabrar could have a “good” ter’angreal or he could have lied about having one or about his results. Why were the recipients selected? I can’t see someone giving Madge a kill unless they were on her team or it was a “bad” ter’angreal.

There should be more ter’angreal out there. This makes me think so:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Each night, she could use the One Power to place wards to protect another player. She could either place a ward that protects against One Power-based abilities, or that protects against other abilities.



Carlington, you better have a good reason for investigating mpolo.
Carlington wrote:I have results saying mpolo is town.
Whatever “town” means.

matt96 wrote:I'm not entirely convinced that SirGabriel is telling the truth
I’m not convinced any of you are telling the truth, at least not the entire truth.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:38 am UTC

Carlington wrote:A thought: I would assume that the town factions don't have a factional kill. Otherwise we would have seen more deaths. Ergo, once all the black Ajah are dead, whoever has the larger faction has won.


I think this is basically correct, but could be modulated on the unaligned siding with one side or the other. (If there are unaligned left by the end after the number of recruits that we have going on.)
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:56 am UTC

bessie wrote:Sabrar could have a “good” ter’angreal or he could have lied about having one or about his results.
I'm curious, what is your train of thought here? Because my result was accurate, meaning either I did Cop Madge or I was in the same faction as her, didn't need Cop, so if I'm lying about the result and not about having the ability then it means I Copped someone else and but didn't reveal it, using the opportunity to cover my defense. Is that what you think might have happened or do you have another explanation for your comment there?

Are people interested in possible role distributions and/or mass-claims? If we lynch matt96 today scum will be down to 1 member and I think we should be able to use the available info to pinpoint him/her but I understand if you're wary and do not want to reveal yourself.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:12 am UTC

If I might answer for bessie here - I think she said what she meant. You could have lied about your result, if you didn't actually cop Madge but used some other source of information (like say, knowing the scum team and using process of elimination) to accurately tell us Madge's alignment. It's much the same as the logic that you yourself have used not a page ago to cast doubt on my results.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:20 am UTC

No, as mentioned above that is covered by the 'he could have lied about having one' part of her analysis and I understand the logic there. The thing I wanted to ask her about is the 'lying about his results' part of her sentence that I underlined, how it is differentiated from the other possibilities.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:24 am UTC

Looking at the numbers (and I apologise if we've been over this already, I think we might've):

Now, it's eight alive, four to lynch.

If we lynch Sabrar and he flips town, matt is scum with a double vote, which puts us after a scum NK at 6 alive, three to lynch which is unsub!scum + matt*2. If we lynch matt, in the worst case where we are wrong, we have an extra day, which we use to lynch Sabrar and then mass-claim/elimination will get the last Black Ajah, then we can settle the town vs. town showdown.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:30 am UTC

Yep, we've already established that we're not in MYLO/LYLO.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:34 am UTC

Just as an FYI, I will be away over the weekend, so will have limited opportunities to check the thread, post votals, respond to questions etc until Sunday evening.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:43 pm UTC

So, Carlington still hasn't explained themselves from yesterday, dimochka has yet to provide details, bessie provides good points, but if SirGabriel is telling the truth, that makes her a very high chance of being scum.

Vote: matt96

Since nothing has really been said to change my mind.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby matt96 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 2:44 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:
Now, it's eight alive, four to lynch.


Correction. 8 alive 5 to Lynch. Assuming the night kill happens tonight, we will be at 6 alive 4 to Lynch, with 4 or 5 town depending on whether or not scum gets lynched today.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby dimochka » Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:17 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:sabrar - something is off in his focus on people. he does not feel townie to me. I mentioned two instances above.
dimochka wrote:So that was mostly an observation that I could see you posting it from either angle.
Snipped the rest but you should know what I'm referring to here. You mention 2 instances that you don't like. You've clarified that one of them was 'just an observation'. You didn't mention my reply to your second point at all. Would be great if you could make actual accusations instead of vaguely implying things.

Yes, let me explain.
#1 we determined SirG is likely a recruiter for a faction that was (at least in my eyes) not the scum faction. We didn't know whether black ajah existed, though I considered it very likely. Now I could see you suggesting to lynch him because you actually thought that faction was a cult and the main antagonist, but I didn't feel like that was your focus (correct me if i'm wrong). In this case, your reasons to lynch him would be (1) you're in the other recruiting group, or (2) you're in an unrelated anti-town group that needs to kill others (ie black ajah). I didn't see you mentioning anything about the other group, and therefore the latter of the two seemed more likely.
#2 When you analyze people's play from previous games, you (I mean specifically you) usually call out a few of them. The fact that you didn't go back and check other games where I wasn't very responsive but (conveniently) chose the last game where I was, indeed, scum, stood out to me. This is just meta read, not anything specifically related to this game.

My thoughts on the current situation:
- I trust SirG is not scum, and therefore either matt or sabrar are scum. That means there is one more scum left (yes there could be more but I feel like that would be unbalanced)
- A double vote in my opinion is too strong a power to give to scum, therefore I think matt is town
- However, I do understand that leaving matt alive today is a worse play than leaving sabrar alive today, so I would be ok with the general consensus

Sabrar wrote:Quick reaction: as I've said before I received a 1-shot Cop ability N1, my actual ability is different.

mpolo wrote:So, we have Sabrar who truthfully supported Madge as a member of Siuan's faction. That likely means that either (1) he has the rolecop he says he has or (2) he is himself in Siuan's faction.

That eliminates #1, so Sabrar is very likely either in Siuan or scum. Also considering SirG's reaction, either matt is in Elaida or Sabrar was recruited into it BUT SirG doesn't actually trust that he's town. And considering bessie's post about the votes, neither is in Elaida, and matt/sabrar are not both in Siuan, which further solidifies my belief that one of them is scum (unless I somehow convinced myself based on some other erroneous statement I lost halfway through).
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:42 pm UTC

@dimochka: thank you for the detailed explanation.

#1: your read about me is correct but you're drawing the wrong conclusion.
#2: I don't have anything to say regarding this one that I haven't mentioned before so I'll move on.

dimochka wrote:That eliminates #1, so Sabrar is very likely either in Siuan or scum.
I really don't follow your logic here. What has mpolo's misstatement of my ability to do with these possibilities? Please read again this post. I never said I was a RoleCop, I received a 1-shot Alignment Cop ability that I used. It was successful and told me the truth. How can you draw the conclusion that this would mean I'm either in Siuan or scum? I'm very confused here.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:14 pm UTC

I'm also going away for the weekend. I have nothing to add to the discussion right now, but I will say that I currently have no idea who I'm going to vote for (except that it will be either matt or Sabrar).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:15 pm UTC

Any suggestions for my question for tonight?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:21 pm UTC

You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby dimochka » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:51 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:That eliminates #1, so Sabrar is very likely either in Siuan or scum.
I really don't follow your logic here. What has mpolo's misstatement of my ability to do with these possibilities? Please read again this post. I never said I was a RoleCop, I received a 1-shot Alignment Cop ability that I used. It was successful and told me the truth. How can you draw the conclusion that this would mean I'm either in Siuan or scum? I'm very confused here.

Ok here's my (probably flawed) logic. Please point out where you disagree. You supported Madge being a Siuan member, yet you wanted to lynch SirG for being an Elaida member / recruiter (and same with ahippo). It is therefore unlikely that you are a member of Elaida, and more likely that you are a member of Siuan (though doesn't mean you started as one). You could have been unaligned, but that support of one or the other faction is more likely either if you're a member of one of them, or if you want both dead. It is possible that you are unaligned (I actually forgot about that one) but somewhat less likely fmpov given the interaction. Although they were different days so I could be wrong.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:11 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:It is possible that you are unaligned (I actually forgot about that one)
Thank you, it seemed to me that you used logic to dismiss that possibility, that's why I was confused. You are right about my actions but not my motivation.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:38 pm UTC

Erm, sorry. That was not what I wanted to do.


Sabrar wrote:You can replicate being a Cop:

How many Black Ajah members were voting for bessie at the end of D1? -> Cop on Gopher of Pern
How many Black Ajah members were voting for ahippo at the end of D1? -> Cop on Carlington
How many Black Ajah members were voting for SirGabriel at the end of D2? -> Cop on bessie (after tomorrow morning's reveal)

I second this, assuming it's able to be used in this way. I don't know where the mod is drawing the line with regards to generality.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:40 pm UTC

EBWOP: We can even get multiple cop results, given my ability. I am willing to let the rest of you choose my target tonight.
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Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:45 pm UTC

Unvote: Matt96

No one quickly jumped on...so that didn't tell us anything.

So I have this theory, but to confirm it, I'd have to know everyone's colour of their Ajah. IIRC, here are the current claimed colours. I see no reason why we can't claim now, and I think it will help with deciding between matt and Sabrar.

Sabrar - Uncalimed
mpolo - Unclaimed
Carlington - Unclaimed
moody7277/Madge - Confirmed Blue
dimochka - Claimed Green
bessie - Unclaimed
Gopher of Pern - Claimed Gray
SirGabriel - Claimed Red / Eliada
ahippo - Confirmed White
JudeMorrigan - Confirmed White / Black
Diemo - Confirmed Brown
matt96 - Unclaimed

Yes, I'm claiming Gray Ajah.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby matt96 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:13 am UTC

matt96 wrote: Given that I've already shown a power and earlier ajah power speculation, it should come as no surprise that my ajah is grey.

From page 5
I'm fine with getting lynched today as it will ensure I stay unaligned, and indifferent as to which non Black ajah faction wins.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:20 am UTC

Sabrar - Uncalimed
mpolo - Unclaimed
Carlington - Unclaimed
moody7277/Madge - Confirmed Blue
dimochka - Claimed Green
bessie - Unclaimed
Gopher of Pern - Claimed Gray
SirGabriel - Claimed Red / Eliada
ahippo - Confirmed White
JudeMorrigan - Confirmed White / Black
Diemo - Confirmed Brown
matt96 - Claimed Gray

Thanks matt, missed that one.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby matt96 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:21 am UTC

EBWOP:
also I find it suspicious that GoP is using the wrong grey/gray.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby matt96 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:23 am UTC

Did not realize it was possible to get ninja'd so close that it doesn't let you know about precious posts until now.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:05 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:No one quickly jumped on...so that didn't tell us anything.
Why would anyone 'jump on quickly'? There will be no other trains besides matt96 and myself and we have more than 2 days to decide.

I don't mind claiming my color anymore. I'm Red.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:23 am UTC

I'm also red
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:56 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar could have a “good” ter’angreal or he could have lied about having one or about his results.
I'm curious, what is your train of thought here? Because my result was accurate, meaning either I did Cop Madge or I was in the same faction as her, didn't need Cop, so if I'm lying about the result and not about having the ability then it means I Copped someone else and but didn't reveal it, using the opportunity to cover my defense. Is that what you think might have happened or do you have another explanation for your comment there?

bessie’s ter’angreal theory, previously posted here, is that the ter'angreal are under the control of the Black Ajah.

Mod flavor, may support theory:
The ter’angreal were stolen by the Sisters that fled the tower.
Jude’s power came from his use of a ter’angreal.

Timeline:
1. Madge claims she was given the Ebony Dagger N2.
2. bessie is skeptical and makes a smart-ass reply.
3. Sabrar claims he received the Quartz Diviner N1, he copped Madge N2, and the result is that she belongs to Siuan Sanche’s faction (which we now know to be correct). As part of his claim post, he also gives three reasons not to trust his result (possible false inventor giving out rigged inventions, Madge is Godfather, Madge is a false inventor who gave him a naïve/insane cop).
4. Madge claims to be on Team Siuan.

Conclusions:
1. Sabrar was given a good ter’angreal and reported his results truthfully. possible
2. Sabrar was given a false ter’angreal and reported his results truthfully. disproved
3. Sabrar was given a good/false ter’angreal, and decided to lie about his results. Why? Scum!Sabrar was redirected, got a result on a Black Ajah teammate, and needed to create a false result. Why? Because the person that gave him the ter’angreal would expect him to use it, so he needed to create a result. possible
4. Sabrar did not have a ter’angreal, and decided to lie about having/using one. Why? Scum!Sabrar is Black Ajah and is giving out false ter’angreal, and gave a false dagger to Madge. He wants Madge to use it, so he pretends that he too has a good ter’angreal, and gives a result that will convince Madge that it is safe to use the dagger. possible

Note: For #3 or #4 to work, Scum!Sabrar would need to guess Madge’s faction, and risk being wrong. But I don’t think that it is too much of a risk, because in the same post he gave his result he also conveniently presents three reasons not to trust that result.


Gopher of Pern wrote:bessie provides good points, but if SirGabriel is telling the truth, that makes her a very high chance of being scum.

And how do SirGabriel’s results indicate I have a higher chance of being scum than you?
bessie wrote:Black: Jude, Black TBD, Black TBD
Suian: Suian TBD, Madge, N1 recruit TBD, N2 recruit TBD
Elaida: SirGabriel, ahippo, N1 Recruit TBD, N3 recruit TBD
Unaligned: Diemo

TBD: bessie, Carlington, dimochka, Gopher of Pern, matt96, mpolo, Sabrar
If we remove the “confirmed” town and the two lynch candidates, we have one scum in [bessie, Carlington, Gopher of Pern].

Also… wait, what? I’m the one that gave SirGabriel the question. I think scum could have come up with a more ineffectual question. Or ignored the request entirely.


dimochka wrote:That eliminates #1, so Sabrar is very likely either in Siuan or scum.
dimochka, I also agree Sabrar is on Team Siuan or Black Ajah, but for a different reason that I have already noted. [pre-post edit: I see you covered this in your next post]
bessie wrote:This makes me believe on D2 Sabrar was a member of a non-Elaida faction. Could be Suian’s faction or the Black Ajah faction.
Sabrar wrote:At this point I think ahippo's flip would give us the most information, plus he told us that he was an Elaida supporter so fmpov he can no longer be Town in any scenario.


SirGabriel, I’m not sure if copping one player at a time is the best use of your question. There’s a possibility we will run out of days. But I don’t have a better idea and will need to think about it.

Carlington wrote:EBWOP: We can even get multiple cop results, given my ability. I am willing to let the rest of you choose my target tonight.
So why mpolo?

Gopher of Pern wrote:So I have this theory, but to confirm it, I'd have to know everyone's colour of their Ajah.
I would rather not claim my color, but I’ll claim if everyone else does. OK, while I’ve been screwing around with this post for the past couple hours Sabrar and Carlington both claimed. I’m yellow. mpolo, your turn. Gopher of Pern, let’s have your theory while we still have time to discuss it. Reminder to everyone that deadline is on Monday this time.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Carlington » Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:23 am UTC

I thought I explained enough for everyone to work out why mpolo. I'm preparing for the fact that the larger faction will win once scum is eradicated. mpolo is not co-aligned with me to my knowledge, so it's useful to know whether he's part of another faction so we have a sense of the relative powers of the factions.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:10 am UTC

Sabrar - Claimed red
mpolo - Unclaimed
Carlington - Claimed red
moody7277/Madge - Confirmed Blue
dimochka - Claimed Green
bessie - Claimed yellow
Gopher of Pern - Claimed Gray
SirGabriel - Claimed Red / Eliada
ahippo - Confirmed White
JudeMorrigan - Confirmed White / Black
Diemo - Confirmed Brown
matt96 - Claimed Gray

bessie: through information only known to me. I'm going to share the information soon, I just need to check some things first.

Sabrar: If someone tried to jump on to put pressure on, it might give away some information. Alas, no one did that.

Once mpolo claims I will reveal my thoughts.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:17 am UTC

bessie wrote:2. Sabrar was given a false ter’angreal and reported his results truthfully. disproved
3. Sabrar was given a good/false ter’angreal, and decided to lie about his results. Why? Scum!Sabrar was redirected, got a result on a Black Ajah teammate, and needed to create a false result. Why? Because the person that gave him the ter’angreal would expect him to use it, so he needed to create a result. possible
4. Sabrar did not have a ter’angreal, and decided to lie about having/using one. Why? Scum!Sabrar is Black Ajah and is giving out false ter’angreal, and gave a false dagger to Madge. He wants Madge to use it, so he pretends that he too has a good ter’angreal, and gives a result that will convince Madge that it is safe to use the dagger. possible

Note: For #3 or #4 to work, Scum!Sabrar would need to guess Madge’s faction, and risk being wrong. But I don’t think that it is too much of a risk, because in the same post he gave his result he also conveniently presents three reasons not to trust that result.

2. Not disproved entirely, just unlikely. False ter'angreal could give good result on Town and false result on scum.
3. My results pm specifically said that I investigated Madge, so I wouldn't know if I was redirected and that's why I didn't list it as a possibility before. So unless someone claims redirector and says that they targeted me N2 we can discard this possibility.
4. Your logic is bad, it would not be enough for scum!me to mention possible ways why my result is false because then Madge would know not to use the dagger. I would need a result that is guaranteed to be correct, e.g. claiming Tracker on dimochka.

You seem unwilling to let go of your pet theory even though the basic premise of it (Madge making a scum-slip) was proven to be wrong.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:48 am UTC

Apologies for multi-posting, on phone.
bessie wrote:SirGabriel, I’m not sure if copping one player at a time is the best use of your question. There’s a possibility we will run out of days.
How? We have 3 players whose alignment needs to be confirmed (but probably only 2 due to Siuan), SirGabriel cops Carlington to know whether we can trust his result, Carlington cops you or GoP and we're done by process of elimination.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:54 am UTC

Carlington wrote:I'm preparing for the fact that the larger faction will win once scum is eradicated. mpolo is not co-aligned with me to my knowledge, so it's useful to know whether he's part of another faction so we have a sense of the relative powers of the factions.
1. Works only if you're convinced we can get rid of scum for sure without your result.
2. mpolo hasn't claimed any ability yet so you'll gain no info about the strength of his faction.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:40 pm UTC

EBWOP: scratch the second point, you claimed to receive full roles with abilities.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:44 pm UTC

I began as an Accepted and chose Blue last night, though I haven't received a new power email yet.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:46 pm UTC

To be more clear about this, I can take over the power of another. I chose Madge's power.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:3. My results pm specifically said that I investigated Madge, so I wouldn't know if I was redirected and that's why I didn't list it as a possibility before. So unless someone claims redirector and says that they targeted me N2 we can discard this possibility.
Your claim that your results said you targeted Madge is not proof to me that you are telling the truth. It’s like you didn’t even read what I wrote. Example:

The Black Ajah team is SDK and Sabrar. Sabrar receives an anonymous gift of a Quartz Diviner on N1. He knows that whoever gave him the gift will expect him to use it N2, so he uses it on town kalira. Sabrar is redirected (redirector, bus driver, whatever) and receives a result that SDK is Black Ajah. He doesn’t want to reveal this result, so he instead claims a town result on Madge. Reason for not claiming a town result on kalira is so that if there was a redirect (targeting actions on kalira) or switch (on SDK and kalira), the redirector/switcher would know Sabrar is lying.

Sabrar wrote:4. Your logic is bad, it would not be enough for scum!me to mention possible ways why my result is false because then Madge would know not to use the dagger. I would need a result that is guaranteed to be correct, e.g. claiming Tracker on dimochka.
My logic is sound. The goal is to get Madge to use the dagger. It makes sense to claim a result that would appeal directly to Madge. Claiming a 1-shot tracker on dimochka may have worked too. But thinking about it now, it seems much riskier because by that point dimochka had already claimed, and Diemo and ahippo had already flipped with a watcher/tracker powers.

Sabrar wrote:You seem unwilling to let go of your pet theory even though the basic premise of it (Madge making a scum-slip) was proven to be wrong.
I’m willing to discuss any theory. At least I have been trying to facilitate discussion. And if someone out there is giving out ter’angreal every night, then someone may have received one N3.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:SirGabriel, I’m not sure if copping one player at a time is the best use of your question. There’s a possibility we will run out of days.
How? We have 3 players whose alignment needs to be confirmed (but probably only 2 due to Siuan), SirGabriel cops Carlington to know whether we can trust his result, Carlington cops you or GoP and we're done by process of elimination.

Reasons we could run out of days, in random order. I can probably think of more but this is enough for now.
1. The Black Ajah team can recruit.
2. SirGabriel can be blocked from asking a question.
3. SirGabriel is killed.
4. The Black Ajah team has two kills available, due to not using one last night.
5. Today’s lynch target is Black Ajah and is 1-shot lynch proof and doesn’t die.
6. There is a third party with a kill.

mpolo wrote:I began as an Accepted and chose Blue last night, though I haven't received a new power email yet.
This doesn’t make sense to me for multiple reasons. If you were the universal town backup, you should have taken over Diemo’s or ahippo’s power earlier in the game. If you had a choice to take a power or wait, why wait until N3 when the game is almost over? And why choose Madge’s power, which if you use tonight might not even kick in until N5? And why didn’t you receive your power confirmation yet? This doesn’t seem to me like the type of mistake this mod would make. And it makes even less sense to me that part of the game mechanics was that you couldn’t select a power until N3 and use it for the first time on N4 (or maybe even N5). It’s too late for a 12 player game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby mpolo » Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:55 pm UTC

I could have taken the brown power or ahippo's power, but they didn't impress me as powers that were particularly useful. Alviarin's power was completely useless to me as town. So I waited to claim a power that is actually useful.

Bessie's theory about a busdriver/redirector is interesting, but do we have any evidence that one is in the game? This would also be needed to explain why an evil ter'angreal passer-outer would send a ter'angreal to Madge.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:24 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Reason for not claiming a town result on kalira is so that if there was a redirect (targeting actions on kalira) or switch (on SDK and kalira), the redirector/switcher would know Sabrar is lying.
How in hell would redirector know that I was lying? They don't know that SDK is my scum-mate, they don't know that I received Black Ajah as a result, they don't know if their redirect was successful (e.g. could have been roleblocked), they don't know how my results pm was worded. You keep bringing up convoluted scenarios that can easily be disproved because at this point no one will be claiming redirector (assuming townies don't lie). And if scum has redirector then they wouldn't have targeted scum!me.
bessie wrote:The goal is to get Madge to use the dagger. It makes sense to claim a result that would appeal directly to Madge.
But it does not make sense to claim a result that might be wrong.
bessie wrote:Claiming a 1-shot tracker on dimochka may have worked too. But thinking about it now, it seems much riskier because by that point dimochka had already claimed,
It is precisely because of this why it was much safer and not at all risky. dimochka already claimed so I would have known exactly who he targeted.
bessie wrote:and Diemo and ahippo had already flipped with a watcher/tracker powers.
That doesn't mean anything, dimochka claimed Vigilante, Madge claimed to have received 1-shot vigilante so power-duplication was definitely possible.
bessie wrote:At least I have been trying to facilitate discussion.
No, you are chasing ghosts because of some hidden agenda.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D4)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:17 pm UTC

Sabrar - Claimed red
mpolo - Claimed initial no colour
Carlington - Claimed red
moody7277/Madge - Confirmed Blue
dimochka - Claimed Green
bessie - Claimed yellow
Gopher of Pern - Claimed Gray
SirGabriel - Claimed Red / Eliada
ahippo - Confirmed White
JudeMorrigan - Confirmed White / Black
Diemo - Confirmed Brown
matt96 - Claimed Gray

So. That actually makes me feel good about my theory.

12 players. 7 Ajah colours. 3 scum. 2 players who do not have a colour.

My theory was that there would be 1 of each Ajah colour among town, and scum would be the only ones duplicating. That leaves 2 players who would not have a colour. One would be Siuan, who is colourless. I had theorised that the other would be Elaida, not that she's colourless, but she is the leader of the other recruiting faction, so a double up on red would be expected. But mpolo being a back up townie explains it soo much better.

Therefore, the double ups we have are:
Red - Sabrar, Carlington, and SirGabriel
Gray - Gopher, matt

So, two are town, one is lying Siuan, two are lying scum.

My bets are on Carlington and Sabrar being the scum. I doubt SirGabriel is lying about being Eliada. Carlington has been giving me scum vibes since yesterday, with their cageyness about answering questions. Sabrar I did notice things yesterday, which still ping me. And it would make sense to me that matt could be Siuan, with a double vote, as she's supposed to be the leader of the Ajah.

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